100 yard rusher vs 300 yard passer winning percentage - interesting

[Big Blitz]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

No they couldn't block anyone. Until week 12 or 13 the Bills oline was one of the worst olines in the league last year. They played well for 6 weeks down the stretch.... but the offensive line was freaking horrible before that. It was the reason the Bills were not the #1 seed. Zero doubt in my mind. 

 

 

Going in to the season with basically only Singletary because Moss was never right is mind boggling looking back.  

[Coach Tuesday]

11 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

Going in to the season with basically only Singletary because Moss was never right is mind boggling looking back.  

Having a better running back than Moss in 2021 would not have made a lick of difference in last year’s outcome.  You are in the wrong century.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

My guess is the optimal win formula is for the QB to pass for250-275 and your RBs to combine for 125-150. 

That said, to win consistently in modern NFL you need a QB and an offense that is capable of putting up 400 pass yards when needed OR a legendary defense.

Bills have the QB. Lets hope Dorsey is a capable OC and the defensive front 7 is better.

[Big Blitz]

14 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

What? How is that your take from last years season?

 

 

Um no.  It's one take of many about last year's team.  

 

If Moss was never right (everyone including him) has said so, we could have added someone better than Brieda.  

 

 

I wanted to try and trade for Melvin Gordon at the deadline - but it ultimately worked out bc Motor was good down the stretch.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No they couldn't block anyone. Until week 12 or 13 the Bills oline was one of the worst olines in the league last year. They played well for 6 weeks down the stretch.... but the offensive line was freaking horrible before that. It was the reason the Bills were not the #1 seed. Zero doubt in my mind. 

100% agree. The whole line with the exception of Morse played poorly for the first 3/4ths of the season.  Dawkins' turnaround was remarkable. Moving Williams to guard and playing Brown even with his uneven play was a big upgrade and then of course Bates played well.

Lots of question marks this year but on paper they should be a better unit to start 2022 than they were to start 2021. 

[billybrew1]

This phenomenon is not really interesting at all. Teams that are winning ice the clock by running and teams that are losing take chances throwing the ball downfield.

 

Next…

[dollars 2 donuts]

Weird to think that only 1 out of every 5 QB performances (112-544) results in a 300 yard game. 

 

I don't know, maybe that is just me.  That's about 6 (edited/corrected - 112 total over 18 weeks) guys a week out of 32 throwing for 300.

 

 

Edited September 6, 2022 by dollars 2 donuts

[Billsfan1972]

And when both QBs pass for 300 yards one wins one loses so I guess that's a .500 winning percentage?

[prissythecat]

11 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And when both QBs pass for 300 yards one wins one loses so I guess that's a .500 winning percentage?

 

Nah.   Using a rigorous statistical methodology,  we just don't consider the loser . That way we get better correlation between wins and 300 yard passing 😛

[Niagara Bill]

Having read too much of this thread, I want to suggest there us a major difference between 100 tushing and a 100 yard rusher. Having a dominate player on the field every down is more important than by committee.

[Coach Tuesday]

Just now, Niagara Bill said:

Having read too much of this thread, I want to suggest there us a major difference between 100 tushing and a 100 yard rusher. Having a dominate player on the field every down is more important than by committee.

Literally the opposite is true.

[Sierra Foothills]

1 hour ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

Weird to think that only 1 out of every 5 QB performances (112-544) results in a 300 yard game. 

 

I don't know, maybe that is just me.  That's about 6 (edited/corrected - 112 total over 18 weeks) guys a week out of 32 throwing for 300.

 

 

 

Actually the NFL season consists of 272 regular season games... keep in mind that each game involves 2 teams so there are only 16 games per week on average.

 

Regardless of the debate, what's interesting to me is that last year there were 103 individual 100 yard rushing games vs 112 300 yard passing games.

 

I would have expected there to be fewer 100 yard rushing games and more 300 yard passing games.

 

[SinceThe70s]

In case anyone is interested I dug up a post from 2019 where I attempted to compare winning pct based on rushing yards vs. winning pct based on passing yards. The results for rushing yards weren't surprising, but the results for passing yards were.  Here's a screen grab of the numbers (years 2015-2019 games). 

 

 

 

[dollars 2 donuts]

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Actually the NFL season consists of 272 regular season games... keep in mind that each game involves 2 teams so there are only 16 games per week on average.

 

Regardless of the debate, what's interesting to me is that last year there were 103 individual 100 yard rushing games vs 112 300 yard passing games.

 

I would have expected there to be fewer 100 yard rushing games and more 300 yard passing games.

 

 

272 games means 544 qb performances, high is what I indicated.  Although, I didn’t do the math on the playoffs, but I can’t remember whether they included those.  Two QBs in a game can pass for 300 yards.  Each team plays 17 games and their are 32 teams.  We are in full agreement on the 272 games!

 

agree about the rushing, too.

[NoSaint]

22 hours ago, KzooMike said:

Is this a causation/correlation issue?  Teams that are ahead run the ball more. Is this stat more reflective of that or a type of strategy within the game? This has been talked about for a very long time. I just think it’s more of causation issue nowadays. Good teams pass. That seems pretty clear from an observational standpoint. 

right? I’d venture if you did 65 yard rushers vs 195 yard passers in the first half of games (ie not running the clock out or garbage time catch-up stats) it probably flips back to passing  being the advantageous 

[Chicken Boo]

300 yard games in today's NFL don't mean much.  "It's a passing league" after all.   

 

Matt Ryan and Eli Manning are #8 & #9 all time in passing yards. 

[Sierra Foothills]

12 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

300 yard games in today's NFL don't mean much.  "It's a passing league" after all.   

 

Matt Ryan and Eli Manning are #8 & #9 all time in passing yards. 

 

And yet as dollars 2 donuts points out, only 1 out of every 5 QB performances last year (112-544) resulted in a 300 yard game.

 

That's probably fewer than most people would think. 

[GreggTX]

This is not the least bit surprising since teams run more when ahead. People tend to forget that the best option for winning is to exercise your greatest advantages over your opponent, assuming game conditions favor that approach. The rules were changed to open up offenses, so more passing, but if you have D Henry at RB and your offense isn't centered around Henry, you're an idiot. Besides, I think the game has lost a good balance between run and pass and is slightly less interesting because of it.

[Chicken Boo]

5 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

And yet as dollars 2 donuts points out, only 1 out of every 5 QB performances last year (112-544) resulted in a 300 yard game.

 

That's probably fewer than most people would think. 

 

I look at it from this standpoint.  A 4500 yard season for a QB used to average out to 281 yards per game.  (16 game season) 

 

That's still a monster season as far as yardage.  

[Thurman#1]

15 hours ago, BuffaloBills1998 said:

I disagree, Josh needs a running game to rely on so he doesn’t get killed trying to constantly run the ball himself. Also I’m sure his INTS would go down if he has a consistent running game to rely on

 

 

No, you can't be sure about something like that, that's a guess.

 

Might be correct. Might not.

 

But we know that our run game was better in 2021 than in 2020, in YPA and in total yards. Yet Allen's passing was slightly better in 2020, and a signficantly higher INT percentage in 2021 despite the run game being quite a bit worse in total.

 

Certainly there were other reasons for this it's not a great correlation. But that's the point. You can't assume that your imaginary alternate reality correlation will be true or even if they happened would be true through cause and effect.

 

15 hours ago, prissythecat said:

 

9 rushes vs something like 45 pass attempts.  

 

 

Um, no. 9 rushes by running backs, not 9 rushes. And numbers introduced by phrases like, "something like" are right out there as guesses.

 

Guessed numbers wouldn't show anything anyway. What if they were higher? Lower? We have no idea what would have happened. All we really know is that the whole offense played awful, that the line was overwhelmed, and that when they did run, the backs the results sucked. Thinking those numbers showed they should run more makes no sense. They can't run and they can't pass and that means they should have run more and things would have been better? There's no logic there.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

14 hours ago, prissythecat said:

5.6 ypa passing so the passing game was pretty darn bad on its own yet they kept trying.   

 

 

Yeah, hard to figure out why they kept trying using the strategy that got them 5.6 ypa versus the strategy that got them 2.4 ypc.

 

Clearly a logician would tell you that we can see from those numbers that if they'd run more they have done much better.

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

To what?  That Carson Wentz is terrible?

 

Without Taylor they probably win 3 games last year.  

 

Using "made the playoffs" or "winning the Super Bowl" as the only barometer is ridiculous 

 

 

Um, OK. So, why did you say:

 

On 9/5/2022 at 9:38 PM, Big Blitz said:

 

The stats still support running and stopping the run are vital in putting together a SB team

 

 

When you say stuff like this, of course people are going to tell you about the actual facts about SB teams.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

13 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

To what?  That Carson Wentz is terrible?

 

Without Taylor they probably win 3 games last year.  

 

Using "made the playoffs" or "winning the Super Bowl" as the only barometer is ridiculous 

 

I don't disagree on the Colts. They have the best running back in football and last year had the worst starting QB in football. Given that the run game mattered to them. But I suggest if you switched it around.... gave them the best QB and the worst starting RB they would have won more games and made the post season. In fact if you go back to the last period in which they regularly made the playoffs in the early Andrew Luck years they were doing so with Vick Ballard and Trent Richardson averaging less then 4 yards a carry as among the worst backs in the league.

 

Moral of the story - if your QB is Carson Wentz you better have a run game. If youe QB is Josh Allen you want to throw it. A lot. 

[Niagara Bill]

13 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Literally the opposite is true.

Sorry, wrong. When a pass catching rb enters game and never runs the ball, it helps the d. Change of pace backs are also easy prey for Def coordinators. 

Even Thurmans successful back ups were similar styles. 

If you do not have a dominate back who gets you 100 yards, you really have no running game to be feared. It is the fear to Def coordinators that changes a game plan.

[prissythecat]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, hard to figure out why they kept trying using the strategy that got them 5.6 ypa versus the strategy that got them 2.4 ypc.

 

Clearly a logician would tell you that we can see from those numbers that if they'd run more they have done much better.

 

Kind of an ignorant statement since run and pass output is typically quite different.  A good passing game usually is one that is over 7.0 ypa while a good running game is usually over 4.5 ypc.  The two numbers are not comparable.    Keep trying though

Edited September 7, 2022 by prissythecat

[prissythecat]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Um, no. 9 rushes by running backs, not 9 rushes. And numbers introduced by phrases like, "something like" are right out there as guesses.

 

 

I remember looking at the box score to see the breakdown months ago  and just recalled that they had over 40 pass attempts .  So it wasn't a guess.   As an fyi ,  the exact figure from the box score was 47 pass attempts.   

On the running side ,  if we include Josh's scrambles,  the run attempts goes up to 14.  Not a material increase.   But curiously enough,  the ypc number goes up to 5.1 (which is pretty darn good).  So one could actually argue that we should have had Josh scramble more and pass less 😛

[HiMark]

On 9/6/2022 at 6:35 AM, Matt_In_NH said:

And do you take out your starting RB with the big lead?

Um, no?  Just saying there is an actual reason why 100 yard rushing games are co-related strongly with wins.  They often happen BECAUSE you are winning.

The Bills are likely to have both, or more 300y passing wins, because that is how we build big leads.

 

Also, as in the last 2 Pats games, its how we run out the clock 😁