2022 Offseason Primer Position Group: Defensive Line

[MAJBobby]

Started with Secondary and Linebackers, and the links to the past writeups are included on the bottom of the posts that preceded it.  Now staying with the defense, I will go to the DL.  This is a position group that I think could be some movement into So it might get longer and a bit more detailed than the LBer and Secondary (where I think the Bills will likely not see as areas for major upgrade (I would in the Secondary, but I am trying to think like the Bills).  So with the Heavy Rotation we play in the DL, I do think they will not go and try and trade for a premier pass rusher, or even sign one.  But I will run the different types of Ideas, just know they run a heavy rotation in this position groups which to me leads to more middle tier UFAs in that Role or Draft picks.  I Would LOVE a premier pass rusher though to pair with the promising Rookie play (They need to take a Big Step).  So without further rambling lets get into it.

 

The standard disclaimer.

I use SPOTRAC for my salary information, I know more like OTC, so numbers might be a little different I just prefer SPOTRAC more.   I also use profootball reference for the stats.

 

So here we go…

 

Bills CAP Space: Top 51 = -1.330M Yep Still negative. But getting a 40K savings from the LBer writeup.

 

Defensive Line – 8 players on contact taking up 11.75% of CAP, 23rd highest in the NFL.

 

Interesting here, shows that the rookie contracts are bringing the % and rankings down, compared to 2021, we had 13 players on Contract taking up 23.83% of the cap, ranked 2nd in the NFL in terms of Cap usage.  For those numbers I think this unit greatly under-performed.  It did not look like the second highest paid DL in the NFL in terms of the play and numbers (will get into that more), so this is a reset year for this DL.  I will talk DT and DE in the writeups as different moves for each position group IMO. 

 

DT Free Agents

 

RFA

Justin Zimmer – 29 years old – As an RFA coming off of INJ I would expect the Bills to work a contract with him in the 900K to 1.1M range.  I do not think he gets an RFA tender offer (Original Round Tender – 2.4M projected, which while he has played decently when playing and makes big plays that is too much for Zimmer coming off an INJ).  But I do expect some type of contract with him, might have to let him hit the market first.  In 6 games this year Zimmer had 1 sack, 8 tackles (2 Solo, 6 Combined) and 2TFL with 4 QB hits.  Those are not bad numbers for the playing time he had, but very replaceable and NOT worth anything more than Minimum this upcoming year.  I personally would move on. 

 

UFA

Vernon Butler – 28 years old, Cap hit in 2021 – 7.5M – HUGE MISS here with him IMO.  Yes I know only 26 years old.  But really has done nothing in his 2 years in buffalo to even come close to his BEST year in Carolina.  But when you look at his 3 previous years in Carolina (minus the Contract year performance he is right in line with his historical play.  This year he had 11 tackles (6 Solo and 5 Combined) 0 TFL and 1 QB Hit.  So essentially Bills paid about 1M per tackle with him.    This is an easy move on IMO, do not get excited about the Age, he just is flatlined with no more improvement IMO.  We even brought in his former DL coach and that didn’t unlock anything in him either.

 

Harrison Phillips – 26 Years old, Cap hit in 2021 – 835K, Projected Market Value 5.4M:  The comparables to come up with that market value are, Poona Ford, Malcom Brown, Sheldon Rankins, and Maliek Collins.  I was pleasantly surprised with the Market Value Assessment as I thought similar in a range of 4M to 6M AAV.  They are projecting a 2-year deal so with a little more years we likely could get in the 4.5M AAV I think and that would be a great number for Harry.  He is a lunch pail just worker from the DT position and not a lot of “flash” in his game, but the Bills found something with Him, and Oliver paired at the end of the season, they were their top two DTs.  Harrys numbers this year (mind you not far removed from a bad injury as well.  and looking at the Game logs got better and got more playing time as the season moved on (as he got further away from the INJ).  All career Highs 1 Sack, 51 tackles (28 Solo, 23 Combined) 4 TFL and 6 QB Hits.  IMO what I would do is sign him to a 4-year contract and look to make the space for this contract elsewhere will talk that in a minute when I get to the On Contract guys. 

 

On Contract

 

Star Lotulelei, age 33, 4.38 % of cap, 9.226M cap hit (1.526M in savings, 4.026M in savings post June 1st) – Here is where I would make a change.  I am cutting Star at this point.  I am not approaching for a pay cut, I am not re-working his contract lower base with Signing.  I am not doing any of that. I am moving on from him.  Opts out in 2020, 3 inactives in 2021 along with 3 games was active and never saw the field.  Snap count fell off at the end of the season as well.  Was up around 50% through week 12.   Then Inactive, 29%, Inactive, 34%, 33%, playoffs 32% and 43%.  Now we are talking about a 9M cap hit DT and his numbers where 17 Tackles (11 Solo, 6 Combined) 4 TFL and 3 Sacks and QB hits.  That is not the production needed from a 9M DT.  I can get younger, cheaper, and better production from Phillips here.  I am cutting Star Clean as soon as I can (maybe try and find someone to throw a pick in a trade).  The trade would lead to the best savings of 4.026M pre Jun 1).  Take the late round pick and move on. 

 

Ed Oliver, age 25, 2.97% of cap, 6.26M cap hit (No Savings) – Rookie Deal is no savings on a cut, but there is savings of a bit over 3M on a trade, but that isn’t going to happen.  The most likely path for Oliver is an extension sometime in Camp like Allen, next year is 5th year option and then the new extension kicks in.  Maybe lower the hit this year a couple Million.  I think he performed well enough for that 4–5-year extension, however Beane and Co may want to play out this year and then work the extension at the end.  (I wouldn’t).  Me personally I thought this was his best year yet. He looked much stronger and stout in the interior, he always can penetrate, but looked great next to Phillips.  Ended with 4 Sacks, 41 tackles (29 solo and 12 Combines, 10 TFL) and 14 QB hits.  The numbers play out what my eyes saw that he played his best football this year.  To me I would work the extension with him this camp. 

 

Eli Ankou, age 28, 0.43% against cap, 895K cap hit (895K savings) – Nice little futures contact find here.  When I get into the numbers you will see the same production from him as you would your 9M Star and 7.5M Butler.  His numbers 5 games 1 Sack, 9 Tackles (5 Solo, 4 Combined) 1 TFL and 1 QB Hit. 

 

Notable UFAs – This list is actually quit long, there are a lot of veteran DTs about to hit the market so there is likely a buyers’ market here.  Some of the older Vets:

 

Steve McLendon, 36, Tampa

Ndamukong Suh, 35, Tampa

 

But I am looking at long term here not a one-year deal that will solidify for a year so my age cutoff on this list is going to be 29 (that would give me a 3-year window with the player roughly).  And what am I replacing or looking to replace, it likely at least One 3 tech and maybe One 1 Tech depending on how you feel about Ankou.  If I am spending in the DT position and not replacing with a Rookie that DT better be able to bring pressure as well. 

 

Larry Ogunjobi, age 28, Cincy – I would look here for a pressure DT, logged 7 sacks and 724 snaps, will cost about where Star is now IMO so will have to do more cap work to fit him. 

 

BJ Hill, age 27, Cincy – another that will bring pressure for a DT logging 6 sacks on 502 snaps.  Again, another 9M a year player.

 

Foley Fatukasi, age 27, NYJ – Here is my UFA target for the Bills, if I play with the DT position with long term contracts in the offseason.  He is our prototypical 1 Tech space eater, I think with around a 2.5M AAV he could be had on a long term deal. 

 

Notable Draft Picks

 

1st round

DeMarvin Leal, 6’4”, 290, 3 Tech, Texas A&M

Jordan Davis, 6’5, 330, 1 Tech, Georgia

 

2nd Round

Perrion Winfrey, 6’4” 305, 3 Tech, Oklahoma

Travis Jones, 6’4”, 333, 1 Tech, UCONN

Devonte Wyatt, 6’3” 301, 3 Tech, GA

 

What I would do:

 

     I would Cut Star, Let Zimmer (if he asks for more over league Min) and Butler walk.  I would then R-sign Phillips.  I would likely NOT address this position in UFA, it gets expensive, and wait until after the draft.  I am thinking Davis is graded right where the Bills are picking.  Adding him on a rookie contact would start the transition to a younger group.  Going into the Draft that would leave the Bills DTs at

 

Ed Oliver – 3 Tech

Harrison Phillips – 1 Tech

Ali Ankou – 1 Tech

 

Then you go into the draft, for another DT, and if not you sign some Vets after the draft to shore up this position.  Remember both Groot and Basham an come inside on passing downs as well. 

 

DE Free Agents

 

Jerry Hughes, age 34, Cap hit in 21 – 10.75M, projected Market Value: 3.3M on a two-year deal.  The Comparables used here are Tyson Alualu, Ryan Kerrigan, Kerry Hyder, Benson Mayowa.  At that cap hit I hope the Bills bring him back.  Yes he isn’t worth the value he was playing at any longer, but at this reduced value it would be nice bringing him back into the fold.  His numbers are 3 PD, 2 FF, 2 sacks, 18 Tackles (8 Solo, 10 Combined) 1 TFL and 7 QB hits.  With once again a top number of 19 QB hurries.  I am torn a bit here because the Bills need to get better, but that is going to be tied to the progression of Groot and Basham more than anything at this point.  But at a 3.3M AAV I could not pass up on bring Hughes back for another couple of years. 

 

Mario Addison, age 35, Cap hit in 21 – 10.5M, No projected Market Value probably similar to Hughes maybe an extra 1-1.5M per year based on his sacks as they do get paid for.  His numbers 2 forced fumbles, 7 Sacks, 29 Tackles (20 Solo and 9 Combined) 8 TFL and 7 QB Hits.  If I have to choose between Addison and Hughes, Addison is the one I am binging back.  He is still producing in line with his career so IMO would be better value binging Addison back and letting Hughes walk.  Because like Hughs also has 17 hurries but his missed tackle rate is only 9.4% compared to Jerrys 28%

 

Efe Obada, age 30, Cap hit in 21 – 1.5M, No Projected Market Value – His numbers n 10 games was 1 PD, 3.5 Sacks, 12 Tackles (8 Solo, 4 Combined)  3 TFL and 8 QB Hits.  11 pressures and 20.0% missed tackle rate.  Not much here to right home about, time to just move on there was nothing here.

 

On Contract

 

Greg Rousseau, age 22, 1.25% of Cap, 2.638M Cap Hit (No Savings Rookie Contract) – The talent is there, he does need to get stronger, but was much better at setting the edge than I would have guessed coming from college with not a lot of reps.  Also needs to develop some pass rush counters, really doesn’t rush with a plan, this will come with reps though.  His numbers 1 Pick, 4 PD, 1 FF, 4 Sacks, 50 Tackles (42 Solo, 8 Combined) 8 TFL, 10 QB hits.  I was very happy with his play this year and I think if he takes the next step next year, we have our Premier Pass rusher already on contract and on a Rookie Deal.  His play as a rookie is one of the reasons I am not going hard with the Trade for or sign a premier pass-rusher.  Though if a trade presents itself, I will look at it as we need at least two, even if you bring Hughes or Addison back for the rotation. 

 

AJ Epenesa, age 24, 0.61% of Cap, 1.602M Cap hit (685K Savings) – Same numbers as a rookie roughly 1.5 Sacks, 14 Tackles (8 Solo, 6 Assist) 2 TFL, 9 QB hits.  He looks to me that he just cannot hold the weight through the season and why he drops off as the season progresses.  Though a Cheap Rotational Piece he isn’t going anywhere this year.  But does have a roll in the rotation. 

 

Carlos Basham Jr, Age 25, 0.61% of Cap, 1.278 Cap Hit (No Savings) – Played in only 8 games but made the most of his time IMO.  Logged 2.5 Sacks 18 Tackles (11 Solo and 7 Assists), 4 TFL and QB Hits.  I would have liked to see more playing time from him in the season to really get a feel for him.  But I would say a pretty successful Rookie year playing in a heavy Rotation with a lot of vets on the roster as well. 

 

Mike Love, age 28, 0.39% against Cap 830K Cap hit (830K Savings) – Futures deal signing.

 

Notable DE UFAs

 

Jadeveon Clowney, 29, CLE

 

Emmanuel Ogbah, 28, MIA – Here would be the Target I would shoot for if signing a DE this offseason.  Would likely get a Jerry Hughes level deal at 10-11M AAV.  Productive pass-rusher, however these tend to come up via trade, not very often double digit sack DEs hit the market, and there is none this year, to be honest all the top sackers probably get the Franchise Tag. 

 

Arden Key, 26, SF – Here is my sleeper, an OLB with the length for the DE in McDermott Rotation, needs to likely add weight playing in the 250 range.  But would be a nice serviceable passrusher coming from a good defense.  Logged 7 sacks and 16 pressures in 374 snaps.  Would think you can get him in the 8M range.

 

Initial Draft Look with Initial Grades (no particular order and nowhere ready to really discuss draft)

 

Round 1 (left off all the top passrushers because they are not going to be there where we pick)

Jermaine Johnson II, 6’4” 262 – He is my last 1st round graded DE in this class.  Very good run defender, and does have a plan while rushing the passer, knows how to set moves up and keep college OTs off his frame.  However, he runs cold pass rushing often, meaning not many counters and if an OT gets into his frame he is done.  IMO he is a Base End, better run stopper than pass rusher.

 

What I would do I think.

 

I would sign Mario Addison back as a Veteran.  And Sign Arden Key, 5 years 45M (9M AAV) with 20M guaranteed.  Need to find the space to do that but it is there.  I would then look for maybe another in draft late to develop.

 

That would leave me with

 

Groot

Key

Epenesa

Addison

Basham

 

That should work out to a young productive set of pass rushers with position flexibility with Groot and Basham to drop inside, and Key to drop into OLBer (Similar to Lorax back in the day).  Reason I am looking for UFA (Key) is I don’t think the Bills will go back to the Draft well after having spent a 1, and two 2s in recent drafts.  Could also go on from Addison and look for a 1 year vet after the draft if need be. 

 

Past Writeups:

Linebackers

Secondary

[RyanC883]

This is a great write-up.  Thanks!   

 

I agree with almost everything here, with the following 2 thoughts: 

 

1.  I would have no problem signing an older DT who is still productive, esp. if we are able to get Jordan Davis in the draft.  Would be nice to have an older vet with the younger rookies, and we still have a young DT room with Harry, Davis and Oliver.  McLendon may be a decent value.  I just wouldn't cap the age at 29, I think we are young enough you get the best guy you can, even if "short-term".  

 

2.  I would prefer Osbah at DE over Key, I think Osbah will develop and provide better pass rush value.  But I see the argument for flexibility with Key.  Could we let Addison and Hughes go and get them both?  Not sure I would, but interesting thought.  

 

3.  When AJ was drafted, wasn't it stated that he could also slide inside?  Has this ever happened?  He seems to lack the "burst" you need from a DE.  

 

 

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

Even if we can retain Zimmer and Phillips on team-friendly contracts I would like to add a dynamic free agent DT to make up for the loss of Star and Butler. The lack of push up the middle has been severely hindering our pass-rush.

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

I would sign Mario Addison back as a Veteran

You had me going until this^^

[MAJBobby]

Just now, Solomon Grundy said:

You had me going until this^^

I think if I am getting Key I would move on from Addison.  However he was the most productive DE IMO.  That is all.

15 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

This is a great write-up.  Thanks!   

 

I agree with almost everything here, with the following 2 thoughts: 

 

1.  I would have no problem signing an older DT who is still productive, esp. if we are able to get Jordan Davis in the draft.  Would be nice to have an older vet with the younger rookies, and we still have a young DT room with Harry, Davis and Oliver.  McLendon may be a decent value.  I just wouldn't cap the age at 29, I think we are young enough you get the best guy you can, even if "short-term".  I could see this, but IMO this is the type of move that happens after the draft IMO.  But with the window open maybe there is some budget shopping before draft, using the window as a UFA recruitment tool.

 

2.  I would prefer Osbah at DE over Key, I think Osbah will develop and provide better pass rush value.  But I see the argument for flexibility with Key.  Could we let Addison and Hughes go and get them both?  Not sure I would, but interesting thought.  I thought about Ogbah as well, and would not be upset with Ogbah over Key.  And yeah I think there is ways that we can get both, if we move money from the offensive side a bit.  So I do think it is possible. 

 

3.  When AJ was drafted, wasn't it stated that he could also slide inside?  Has this ever happened?  He seems to lack the "burst" you need from a DE.  

I dont think he can hold the weight.  Looking at him by the end of the season I am seeing a 240lb 250 lb player.  Not in the 270s he started the season.  

 

Comments inline and bold

11 minutes ago, Allen2Diggs said:

Even if we can retain Zimmer and Phillips on team-friendly contracts I would like to add a dynamic free agent DT to make up for the loss of Star and Butler. The lack of push up the middle has been severely hindering our pass-rush.

I think the DT is going to come from the Draft IMO.  buying sacks from the Interior gets expensive 

[BuffaloRebound]

That’s almost $40m in cap off the books with Butler, Star, Addison, Hughes gone.  I think McBeane takes a rare swing for the fences this off-season and brings in a Chandler Jones or Von Miller plus a vet DT like Calais Campbell or Suh.  We have 4 high draft picks on the DL who are cost contained for the next 2 years.  Everything is lined up to go big the next 1-2 years on the D Line in free agency before you gotta pay Oliver or one of our young Defensive Ends steps up their game and gets paid.  

Looking at your off-season primers for the defense, based on the cap numbers and age everything screams DL in free agency and a high draft pick in the secondary and possibly a high draft pick at LB 

Edited February 15, 2022 by BuffaloRebound

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, BuffaloRebound said:

That’s almost $40m in cap off the books with Butler, Star, Addison, Hughes gone.  I think McBeane takes a rare swing for the fences this off-season and brings in a Chandler Jones or Von Miller plus a vet DT like Calais Campbell or Suh.  We have 4 high draft picks on the DL who are cost contained for the next 2 years.  Everything is lined up to go big the next 1-2 years on the D Line in free agency before you gotta pay Oliver or one of our young Defensive Ends steps up their game and gets paid.  

That 40M off the books still leaves a -1.3M cap space.  Already accounted for in active contracts.  So going to buy a DE (which is fine) gonna still have to find the money.

[billsfan89]

I would resign Philips and Zimmer as long as both are reasonable (which they should be). Phillips and Oliver are a nice pair of DT's to start and Zimmer a nice rotational player. I would post June 1st cut Star as I think the 4 million is better spent elsewhere. I would go after a vet free agent to replace Star in the rotation, it's a buyers market go buy. I would then go after a DT in the mid-rounds for depth. 

[BuffaloRebound]

7 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

That 40M off the books still leaves a -1.3M cap space.  Already accounted for in active contracts.  So going to buy a DE (which is fine) gonna still have to find the money.

True, but I can’t see McBeane spending more on their 2 starting LB’s than their entire D Line. The D-Line was arguably the worst unit on the team by the end of the year.  And they can’t keep using all their high picks on DL every year.  Money has to be spent on the DL to make it better.  And now Buffalo is a ring chasing destination.  

[NewEra]

56 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

This is a great write-up.  Thanks!   

 

I agree with almost everything here, with the following 2 thoughts: 

 

1.  I would have no problem signing an older DT who is still productive, esp. if we are able to get Jordan Davis in the draft.  Would be nice to have an older vet with the younger rookies, and we still have a young DT room with Harry, Davis and Oliver.  McLendon may be a decent value.  I just wouldn't cap the age at 29, I think we are young enough you get the best guy you can, even if "short-term".  

 

2.  I would prefer Osbah at DE over Key, I think Osbah will develop and provide better pass rush value.  But I see the argument for flexibility with Key.  Could we let Addison and Hughes go and get them both?  Not sure I would, but interesting thought.  

 

3.  When AJ was drafted, wasn't it stated that he could also slide inside?  Has this ever happened?  He seems to lack the "burst" you need from a DE.  

 

 

So you want to draft Davis in rd one AND resign Harry?  It’s one or the other my man. If we resign Harry, we should look at one of the 1Ts projected rds 5-7.  If we don’t resign Harry, while I think using a 1st rd pick on a player that will play 50% of the defensive snaps is a waste, I can understand the interest in drafting him.  Using both cap AND our 1st pick on a 1T should be the most unlikely of scenarios.  I don’t think Beane would be so frivolous considering the position in question

[Process]

Chandler Jones is #1 on my FA wish list. We can afford one splash signing if we want too and he'd be the guy is go after. 

 

Sign Jones, Harry, draft a CB in the first two rounds and a fat DT on day 3 and our defense is set... And plenty good enough.

[Joe Mama]

Von Miller?

[BADOLBILZ]

 

I'm inclined to definitely keep Zimmer if they can get him in that $1M range.

 

I do expect Jordan Phillips to be released by Arizona and a 30 page thread about it,  though..........and he might be looking at a minimum deal if he doesn't get someone to bite on paying him incentives.  

 

I'm on the sign Von Miller train.........I expect he will re-sign with the Rams though.

 

I'd be interested in a Khalil Mack trade but think it would have to look like the Von Miller to the Rams trade.........multiple 2nd/3rd day picks.........not a first........and that might not incentivize Chicago to send Mack back to Buffalo.

 

In the draft for DL I am most interested in a low investment big body like Marquan MacCall or Noah Ellis on day 3 to back up Harrison Phillips.    Interested to see how Minnesota DE Boye Mafe moves up based on combine/workout numbers.  He finished the season strong and then had a big Senior Bowl so he might no longer align with where the Bills might be able to draft him on day 2 or day 3.    He would be a nice guy to add to the mix if you get a player like Miller or Mack and have him develop behind a similar physical type.

 

Key is interesting though..........he was a potential #1 overall long-term projection pick early in his days at LSU..........definitely not lacking for physical talent/traits.

10 minutes ago, Joe Mama said:

Von Miller?

 

 

Even if just for the Halloween party he throws.

[Mat68]

I would explore trade options.  Need a plug and play player on the dline.  Whether its De or interior im ok with it.  I would look at Lawrence or Williams from the Giants for a cap dump.   

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

35 minutes ago, NewEra said:

So you want to draft Davis in rd one AND resign Harry?  It’s one or the other my man. If we resign Harry, we should look at one of the 1Ts projected rds 5-7.  If we don’t resign Harry, while I think using a 1st rd pick on a player that will play 50% of the defensive snaps is a waste, I can understand the interest in drafting him.  Using both cap AND our 1st pick on a 1T should be the most unlikely of scenarios.  I don’t think Beane would be so frivolous considering the position in question

 

Free agency occurs before the draft, and you can't leave a gaping hole or teams will know to jump you.  If Davis is there in Rnd 1 and you picture him as an impact player to develop into a Vita Vea, Chris Jones, or Kenny Clark type because of plus traits then maybe you pull the trigger.  Worst case scenario the guy is a monster plug and play 1T on early downs, but there's potential there for more.  

 

In a passing league you might think this doesn't have tremendous value, but with tons of teams adopting the mcvay/shanahan offense - being able to have a guy there who is a monster in the run game could be an element the defense is missing.  

[NewEra]

14 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Free agency occurs before the draft, and you can't leave a gaping hole or teams will know to jump you.  If Davis is there in Rnd 1 and you picture him as an impact player to develop into a Vita Vea, Chris Jones, or Kenny Clark type because of plus traits then maybe you pull the trigger.  Worst case scenario the guy is a monster plug and play 1T on early downs, but there's potential there for more.  

 

In a passing league you might think this doesn't have tremendous value, but with tons of teams adopting the mcvay/shanahan offense - being able to have a guy there who is a monster in the run game could be an element the defense is missing.  

It’s still investing too much into the 1T position.  If we allocate 5-7M + a 1st rd pick on a 1T, I’ll have serious doubts about Beane as a GM. That being said, I’m not worried about.  He won’t be that stupid 

[NewEra]

41 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I'm inclined to definitely keep Zimmer if they can get him in that $1M range.

 

I do expect Jordan Phillips to be released by Arizona and a 30 page thread about it,  though..........and he might be looking at a minimum deal if he doesn't get someone to bite on paying him incentives.  

 

I'm on the sign Von Miller train.........I expect he will re-sign with the Rams though.

 

I'd be interested in a Khalil Mack trade but think it would have to look like the Von Miller to the Rams trade.........multiple 2nd/3rd day picks.........not a first........and that might not incentivize Chicago to send Mack back to Buffalo.

 

In the draft for DL I am most interested in a low investment big body like Marquan MacCall or Noah Ellis on day 3 to back up Harrison Phillips.    Interested to see how Minnesota DE Boye Mafe moves up based on combine/workout numbers.  He finished the season strong and then had a big Senior Bowl so he might no longer align with where the Bills might be able to draft him on day 2 or day 3.    He would be a nice guy to add to the mix if you get a player like Miller or Mack and have him develop behind a similar physical type.

 

Key is interesting though..........he was a potential #1 overall long-term projection pick early in his days at LSU..........definitely not lacking for physical talent/traits.

 

 

Even if just for the Halloween party he throws.

Landing a Mack, Miller or Jones would likely get us that Lombardi….but how much will they cost?  I think this will be our plan A but I don’t think we’ll be the highest bidder in any of these cases.  Sure hope I’m wrong.  If we can’t land them, Key or Gregory could be next up @ plan B.  Both so talented but rehab potheads. IMO, most cases those that have to go to rehab for pot are mentally weak.  I’ve been smoking for my entire adult life, but have always been able to stop for long periods of time when my jobs required…and I didn’t have millions on the line.  Maybe JPP, Campbell or Hicks?

 

j phillips would be nice on a 1M contract to get him a ring but I don’t know how much faith I have in dude anymore.  He’d be a decent backup 3T imo.  I don’t think he’s a capable 1T regardless of his size.  He sucks vs the run.  So I’d say either Zimmer or phillips, but not both.

 

Would love to land McCall and resign Harry.  We’d be fine @ the 1T with them imo.  

i think we’ll have to use our 2nd rd pick to get Mafe.  Maybe our 1st depending on his combine.  He’s a badass.  Love his motor.

 

@MAJBobby

love your write ups.  Thanks for dedicating the time.  
 

 

 
 

 

 

[hemma]

I have had the feeling the last couple of years that Hughes was missing tackles because he was afraid of a penalty.

I had no idea it was that bad (missed tackles).  Thanks for that stat.

 

Along the same lines as Arden Key, what do you think of a lower # for Jordan Willis? (Also the 49ers)

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Landing a Mack, Miller or Jones would likely get us that Lombardi….but how much will they cost?  I think this will be our plan A but I don’t think we’ll be the highest bidder in any of these cases.  Sure hope I’m wrong.  If we can’t land them, Key or Gregory could be next up @ plan B.  Both so talented but rehab potheads. IMO, most cases those that have to go to rehab for pot are mentally weak.  I’ve been smoking for my entire adult life, but have always been able to stop for long periods of time when my jobs required…and I didn’t have millions on the line.  Maybe JPP, Campbell or Hicks?

 

j phillips would be nice on a 1M contract to get him a ring but I don’t know how much faith I have in dude anymore.  He’d be a decent backup 3T imo.  I don’t think he’s a capable 1T regardless of his size.  He sucks vs the run.  So I’d say either Zimmer or phillips, but not both.

 

Would love to land McCall and resign Harry.  We’d be fine @ the 1T with them imo.  

i think we’ll have to use our 2nd rd pick to get Mafe.  Maybe our 1st depending on his combine.  He’s a badass.  Love his motor.

 

@MAJBobby

love your write ups.  Thanks for dedicating the time.  
 

 

 
 

 

 

Appreciate it. Love doing them they get me ready for the offseason. Moving to Offense next. Then Teams. Then I likely will even do a UFA preview which also will be fed not only from my initial thinkings in these position groups but also take the comments of those that take the time to offer their ideas as well. 
 

But I must admit listening to the Cover 1 cap spectacular gave me ideas for pay cuts I didn’t really think about when looking at these write ups. More just cutting or restructures. I am hoping to have the next one done tomorrow. Should be the easiest to write with QB LMAO. 

1 minute ago, hemma said:

I have had the feeling the last couple of years that Hughes was missing tackles because he was afraid of a penalty.

I had no idea it was that bad (missed tackles).  Thanks for that stat.

 

Along the same lines as Arden Key, what do you think of a lower # for Jordan Willis? (Also the 49ers)

Yeah was surprised when I saw Hughes is routinely in the 20% range with missed tackles that has been going higher each year. 
 

Willis I haven’t watched a lot of him. I think though he would be more of a Base End. Good against run doesn’t offer much in pass rush. I get worried when I see pass rushers that do not have high sack numbers which he doesn’t have but also doesn’t even have high QB hurry numbers and that would worry me when buying a pass rusher. 

[MAJBobby]

1 hour ago, Joe Mama said:

Von Miller?

I think he stays where he is at. Hard to really do UFAs right now when season just ended. Will get into my UFA primer by early March once Tag Deadline Ends (March 8th). 
 

 

[BrooklynBills]

I like the idea of signing Calais Campbell as a veteran guy who can play inside and out to mentor both Groot and Basham. Would give us that pressure DT that we can rotate inside also. He seems to have a relationship with Rousseau so I think he'd be open to it. He's not an All-Pro anymore but he can definitely still play. 

[MAJBobby]

31 minutes ago, BrooklynBills said:

I like the idea of signing Calais Campbell as a veteran guy who can play inside and out to mentor both Groot and Basham. Would give us that pressure DT that we can rotate inside also. He seems to have a relationship with Rousseau so I think he'd be open to it. He's not an All-Pro anymore but he can definitely still play. 

Would probably be about 10M on a one year deal. I think Hughes or Addison would bring better value there. Though the more I think about this after posting this post Addison likes does get paid and leaves teams will see his Sack Numbers and pay. 
 

that is why I think Hughes re-sign in the 3-4M range would be ideal (If Hughes doesn’t retire). 

[eball]

For all the crap Addison takes (Carolina pipeline, etc.) he was pretty productive last year.

 

Good, thorough write up.  I’m not a FA/Draft geek so I won’t be second-guessing the guys who get paid to do it.

 

In Beane we trust.

[BrooklynBills]

51 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Would probably be about 10M on a one year deal. I think Hughes or Addison would bring better value there. Though the more I think about this after posting this post Addison likes does get paid and leaves teams will see his Sack Numbers and pay. 
 

that is why I think Hughes re-sign in the 3-4M range would be ideal (If Hughes doesn’t retire). 

 

I think Campbell is looking for his best shot to get a ring as it's probably his last year. I don't think it'll be that expensive. But if it's $10 mil on a 1 year deal, then yeah that'll be too much.

[Brand J]

I’d like to see Epenesa get his weight back up to where it was at Iowa, but functional, not just fat. I also want to see Cody Ford approach this off-season like a mad man, trimming up and getting stronger in his lower body. These dudes were picked in the 2nd round after stellar collegiate careers. I refuse to believe the talent isn’t there, especially in Epenesa’s case because he seems like such a hard worker.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, BrooklynBills said:

 

I think Campbell is looking for his best shot to get a ring as it's probably his last year. I don't think it'll be that expensive. But if it's $10 mil on a 1 year deal, then yeah that'll be too much.

 

 

It only takes one team but Campbell had 1.5 sacks and 12 QB hits in almost a full season of play last year..........he's a solid player but not a playmaker anymore........hard to envision him getting anything close to $10M.   Much closer to league minimum if he wants to go to a team like Buffalo or KC who is a Vegas favorite.

[MrEpsYtown]

Key was also buds with Tre White at LSU. He is an interesting fit with upside. Heck bring the whole LSU gang back together…Key, Donte Jackson, DJ Chark. 
 

I think the projected contract for Key feels a bit high, but i like the idea and thinking. 

[MAJBobby]

17 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Key was also buds with Tre White at LSU. He is an interesting fit with upside. Heck bring the whole LSU gang back together…Key, Donte Jackson, DJ Chark. 
 

I think the projected contract for Key feels a bit high, but i like the idea and thinking. 

It might be high. Was trying to find good comps to get me a range there. 

[MrEpsYtown]

6 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

It might be high. Was trying to find good comps to get me a range there. 

You are probably right. People always pay a premium for sacks. There is some boom or bust there, but Key gets to the quarterback, and that is, uh, key. 

[MAJBobby]

9 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

You are probably right. People always pay a premium for sacks. There is some boom or bust there, but Key gets to the quarterback, and that is, uh, key. 

It will be interesting to see if the Bills get the Patriots treatment when it comes to Free Agency where players take less to come for the shot at their ring. Something I will get into later in the month when I do the UFA primer. 
 

I wonder though at least with WRs and weapons they tell agents yeah I will take less to play with Allen. Or if is actually going to take that first Trophy before players start offering discounts to play in WNY. 
 

I think this offseason will tell us a little about that. 

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, NewEra said:

So you want to draft Davis in rd one AND resign Harry?  It’s one or the other my man. If we resign Harry, we should look at one of the 1Ts projected rds 5-7.  If we don’t resign Harry, while I think using a 1st rd pick on a player that will play 50% of the defensive snaps is a waste, I can understand the interest in drafting him.  Using both cap AND our 1st pick on a 1T should be the most unlikely of scenarios.  I don’t think Beane would be so frivolous considering the position in question

 

 

No particular reason to think so.

 

Beane puts a very high value on that space-eating 1-tech. You only have to look at Star's contract to know that's true.

 

Yeah, if picked, Davis might only get 50% of snaps, but our DL platoons to keep fresh. We only had two DLs over 50% anyway, Oliver at 57.8% and Hughes at 51.7%. I don't think that would even be a factor. IMO they'll sign Harry and consider Davis strongly if he's there. No real idea if he'd be their guy, but I think he'll be one of the group they're thinking about there. 

 

If they don't take Davis, I think you're right that they will be considering one of the 5-7th rounders to develop, although the OP mentioned Fatukasi and he's interesting, though I think OP has his price too low, unfortunately.

[LABILLBACKER]

6 hours ago, Process said:

Chandler Jones is #1 on my FA wish list. We can afford one splash signing if we want too and he'd be the guy is go after. 

 

Sign Jones, Harry, draft a CB in the first two rounds and a fat DT on day 3 and our defense is set... And plenty good enough.

I like Chandler Jones too but he will cost a minimum of 16-18/yr. Plus he's on the wrong side of 30. That's too much considering we'll probably only have around 26-28M in cap after cuts. I like considering Ogbah and if Jordan Davis is sitting there at 25 you might have to go get him. Say goodbye to Star, Jerry, Mario and Butler and maybe Harry?  Sign Zimmer and Ankou to 1 yr deals as rotational depth. 

[Solomon Grundy]

11 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I like Chandler Jones too but he will cost a minimum of 16-18/yr. Plus he's on the wrong side of 30. That's too much considering we'll probably only have around 26-28M in cap after cuts. I like considering Ogbah and if Jordan Davis is sitting there at 25 you might have to go get him. Say goodbye to Star, Jerry, Mario and Butler and maybe Harry?  Sign Zimmer and Ankou to 1 yr deals as rotational depth. 

Would rather get Travis Jones in Rd 2 than take Davis at 25

[MrEpsYtown]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

It will be interesting to see if the Bills get the Patriots treatment when it comes to Free Agency where players take less to come for the shot at their ring. Something I will get into later in the month when I do the UFA primer. 
 

I wonder though at least with WRs and weapons they tell agents yeah I will take less to play with Allen. Or if is actually going to take that first Trophy before players start offering discounts to play in WNY. 
 

I think this offseason will tell us a little about that. 

I am not sure that playmakers are going to want to come play with Josh. He distributes the ball so much. Not saying that guys won’t want to play with him, but I don‘t know if it is going to be a big pull. If a guy wants to play with a great QB and just wants to win, and isn’t worried about touches, this is ideal. However, I think offensive linemen want to come play with him as he avoids sacks. 
 

I think where we may get that discount is guys who have never won a super bowl. Calais Campbell type of player who has been around awhile and wants a shot at a super bowl. Guys like Chandler Jones don’t work in this equation because he has a ring. Patrick Peterson, Justin Houston, maybe Brandon Scherff, Andrew Norwell, Reilly Reiff. Dudes who have already gotten paid, are older, and just want a ring. 

Edited February 16, 2022 by MrEpsYtown

[NewEra]

50 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No particular reason to think so.

 

Beane puts a very high value on that space-eating 1-tech. You only have to look at Star's contract to know that's true.

 

Yeah, if picked, Davis might only get 50% of snaps, but our DL platoons to keep fresh. We only had two DLs over 50% anyway, Oliver at 57.8% and Hughes at 51.7%. I don't think that would even be a factor. IMO they'll sign Harry and consider Davis strongly if he's there. No real idea if he'd be their guy, but I think he'll be one of the group they're thinking about there. 

 

If they don't take Davis, I think you're right that they will be considering one of the 5-7th rounders to develop, although the OP mentioned Fatukasi and he's interesting, though I think OP has his price too low, unfortunately.

Do you think paying Harry 5-7M a year AND using our 1st rd pick on Davis is a good allocation of our resources?  

[LABILLBACKER]

8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Do you think paying Harry 5-7M a year AND using our 1st rd pick on Davis is a good allocation of our resources?  

I'll tell you one thing whether or not we sign Harry will determine Davis's fate as a possible pick at 25. I also think we're moving on from Star.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Started with Secondary and Linebackers, and the links to the past writeups are included on the bottom of the posts that preceded it.  Now staying with the defense, I will go to the DL.  This is a position group that I think could be some movement into So it might get longer and a bit more detailed than the LBer and Secondary (where I think the Bills will likely not see as areas for major upgrade (I would in the Secondary, but I am trying to think like the Bills).  So with the Heavy Rotation we play in the DL, I do think they will not go and try and trade for a premier pass rusher, or even sign one.  But I will run the different types of Ideas, just know they run a heavy rotation in this position groups which to me leads to more middle tier UFAs in that Role or Draft picks.  I Would LOVE a premier pass rusher though to pair with the promising Rookie play (They need to take a Big Step).  So without further rambling lets get into it.

 

The standard disclaimer.

I use SPOTRAC for my salary information, I know more like OTC, so numbers might be a little different I just prefer SPOTRAC more.   I also use profootball reference for the stats.

 

So here we go…

 

Bills CAP Space: Top 51 = -1.330M Yep Still negative. But getting a 40K savings from the LBer writeup.

 

Defensive Line – 8 players on contact taking up 11.75% of CAP, 23rd highest in the NFL.

 

Interesting here, shows that the rookie contracts are bringing the % and rankings down, compared to 2021, we had 13 players on Contract taking up 23.83% of the cap, ranked 2nd in the NFL in terms of Cap usage.  For those numbers I think this unit greatly under-performed.  It did not look like the second highest paid DL in the NFL in terms of the play and numbers (will get into that more), so this is a reset year for this DL.  I will talk DT and DE in the writeups as different moves for each position group IMO. 

 

DT Free Agents

 

RFA

Justin Zimmer – 29 years old – As an RFA coming off of INJ I would expect the Bills to work a contract with him in the 900K to 1.1M range.  I do not think he gets an RFA tender offer (Original Round Tender – 2.4M projected, which while he has played decently when playing and makes big plays that is too much for Zimmer coming off an INJ).  But I do expect some type of contract with him, might have to let him hit the market first.  In 6 games this year Zimmer had 1 sack, 8 tackles (2 Solo, 6 Combined) and 2TFL with 4 QB hits.  Those are not bad numbers for the playing time he had, but very replaceable and NOT worth anything more than Minimum this upcoming year.  I personally would move on. 

 

UFA

Vernon Butler – 28 years old, Cap hit in 2021 – 7.5M – HUGE MISS here with him IMO.  Yes I know only 26 years old.  But really has done nothing in his 2 years in buffalo to even come close to his BEST year in Carolina.  But when you look at his 3 previous years in Carolina (minus the Contract year performance he is right in line with his historical play.  This year he had 11 tackles (6 Solo and 5 Combined) 0 TFL and 1 QB Hit.  So essentially Bills paid about 1M per tackle with him.    This is an easy move on IMO, do not get excited about the Age, he just is flatlined with no more improvement IMO.  We even brought in his former DL coach and that didn’t unlock anything in him either.

 

Harrison Phillips – 26 Years old, Cap hit in 2021 – 835K, Projected Market Value 5.4M:  The comparables to come up with that market value are, Poona Ford, Malcom Brown, Sheldon Rankins, and Maliek Collins.  I was pleasantly surprised with the Market Value Assessment as I thought similar in a range of 4M to 6M AAV.  They are projecting a 2-year deal so with a little more years we likely could get in the 4.5M AAV I think and that would be a great number for Harry.  He is a lunch pail just worker from the DT position and not a lot of “flash” in his game, but the Bills found something with Him, and Oliver paired at the end of the season, they were their top two DTs.  Harrys numbers this year (mind you not far removed from a bad injury as well.  and looking at the Game logs got better and got more playing time as the season moved on (as he got further away from the INJ).  All career Highs 1 Sack, 51 tackles (28 Solo, 23 Combined) 4 TFL and 6 QB Hits.  IMO what I would do is sign him to a 4-year contract and look to make the space for this contract elsewhere will talk that in a minute when I get to the On Contract guys. 

 

On Contract

 

Star Lotulelei, age 33, 4.38 % of cap, 9.226M cap hit (1.526M in savings, 4.026M in savings post June 1st) – Here is where I would make a change.  I am cutting Star at this point.  I am not approaching for a pay cut, I am not re-working his contract lower base with Signing.  I am not doing any of that. I am moving on from him.  Opts out in 2020, 3 inactives in 2021 along with 3 games was active and never saw the field.  Snap count fell off at the end of the season as well.  Was up around 50% through week 12.   Then Inactive, 29%, Inactive, 34%, 33%, playoffs 32% and 43%.  Now we are talking about a 9M cap hit DT and his numbers where 17 Tackles (11 Solo, 6 Combined) 4 TFL and 3 Sacks and QB hits.  That is not the production needed from a 9M DT.  I can get younger, cheaper, and better production from Phillips here.  I am cutting Star Clean as soon as I can (maybe try and find someone to throw a pick in a trade).  The trade would lead to the best savings of 4.026M pre Jun 1).  Take the late round pick and move on. 

 

Ed Oliver, age 25, 2.97% of cap, 6.26M cap hit (No Savings) – Rookie Deal is no savings on a cut, but there is savings of a bit over 3M on a trade, but that isn’t going to happen.  The most likely path for Oliver is an extension sometime in Camp like Allen, next year is 5th year option and then the new extension kicks in.  Maybe lower the hit this year a couple Million.  I think he performed well enough for that 4–5-year extension, however Beane and Co may want to play out this year and then work the extension at the end.  (I wouldn’t).  Me personally I thought this was his best year yet. He looked much stronger and stout in the interior, he always can penetrate, but looked great next to Phillips.  Ended with 4 Sacks, 41 tackles (29 solo and 12 Combines, 10 TFL) and 14 QB hits.  The numbers play out what my eyes saw that he played his best football this year.  To me I would work the extension with him this camp. 

 

Eli Ankou, age 28, 0.43% against cap, 895K cap hit (895K savings) – Nice little futures contact find here.  When I get into the numbers you will see the same production from him as you would your 9M Star and 7.5M Butler.  His numbers 5 games 1 Sack, 9 Tackles (5 Solo, 4 Combined) 1 TFL and 1 QB Hit. 

 

Notable UFAs – This list is actually quit long, there are a lot of veteran DTs about to hit the market so there is likely a buyers’ market here.  Some of the older Vets:

 

Steve McLendon, 36, Tampa

Ndamukong Suh, 35, Tampa

 

But I am looking at long term here not a one-year deal that will solidify for a year so my age cutoff on this list is going to be 29 (that would give me a 3-year window with the player roughly).  And what am I replacing or looking to replace, it likely at least One 3 tech and maybe One 1 Tech depending on how you feel about Ankou.  If I am spending in the DT position and not replacing with a Rookie that DT better be able to bring pressure as well. 

 

Larry Ogunjobi, age 28, Cincy – I would look here for a pressure DT, logged 7 sacks and 724 snaps, will cost about where Star is now IMO so will have to do more cap work to fit him. 

 

BJ Hill, age 27, Cincy – another that will bring pressure for a DT logging 6 sacks on 502 snaps.  Again, another 9M a year player.

 

Foley Fatukasi, age 27, NYJ – Here is my UFA target for the Bills, if I play with the DT position with long term contracts in the offseason.  He is our prototypical 1 Tech space eater, I think with around a 2.5M AAV he could be had on a long term deal. 

 

Notable Draft Picks

 

1st round

DeMarvin Leal, 6’4”, 290, 3 Tech, Texas A&M

Jordan Davis, 6’5, 330, 1 Tech, Georgia

 

2nd Round

Perrion Winfrey, 6’4” 305, 3 Tech, Oklahoma

Travis Jones, 6’4”, 333, 1 Tech, UCONN

Devonte Wyatt, 6’3” 301, 3 Tech, GA

 

What I would do:

 

     I would Cut Star, Let Zimmer (if he asks for more over league Min) and Butler walk.  I would then R-sign Phillips.  I would likely NOT address this position in UFA, it gets expensive, and wait until after the draft.  I am thinking Davis is graded right where the Bills are picking.  Adding him on a rookie contact would start the transition to a younger group.  Going into the Draft that would leave the Bills DTs at

 

Ed Oliver – 3 Tech

Harrison Phillips – 1 Tech

Ali Ankou – 1 Tech

 

Then you go into the draft, for another DT, and if not you sign some Vets after the draft to shore up this position.  Remember both Groot and Basham an come inside on passing downs as well. 

 

DE Free Agents

 

Jerry Hughes, age 34, Cap hit in 21 – 10.75M, projected Market Value: 3.3M on a two-year deal.  The Comparables used here are Tyson Alualu, Ryan Kerrigan, Kerry Hyder, Benson Mayowa.  At that cap hit I hope the Bills bring him back.  Yes he isn’t worth the value he was playing at any longer, but at this reduced value it would be nice bringing him back into the fold.  His numbers are 3 PD, 2 FF, 2 sacks, 18 Tackles (8 Solo, 10 Combined) 1 TFL and 7 QB hits.  With once again a top number of 19 QB hurries.  I am torn a bit here because the Bills need to get better, but that is going to be tied to the progression of Groot and Basham more than anything at this point.  But at a 3.3M AAV I could not pass up on bring Hughes back for another couple of years. 

 

Mario Addison, age 35, Cap hit in 21 – 10.5M, No projected Market Value probably similar to Hughes maybe an extra 1-1.5M per year based on his sacks as they do get paid for.  His numbers 2 forced fumbles, 7 Sacks, 29 Tackles (20 Solo and 9 Combined) 8 TFL and 7 QB Hits.  If I have to choose between Addison and Hughes, Addison is the one I am binging back.  He is still producing in line with his career so IMO would be better value binging Addison back and letting Hughes walk.  Because like Hughs also has 17 hurries but his missed tackle rate is only 9.4% compared to Jerrys 28%

 

Efe Obada, age 30, Cap hit in 21 – 1.5M, No Projected Market Value – His numbers n 10 games was 1 PD, 3.5 Sacks, 12 Tackles (8 Solo, 4 Combined)  3 TFL and 8 QB Hits.  11 pressures and 20.0% missed tackle rate.  Not much here to right home about, time to just move on there was nothing here.

 

On Contract

 

Greg Rousseau, age 22, 1.25% of Cap, 2.638M Cap Hit (No Savings Rookie Contract) – The talent is there, he does need to get stronger, but was much better at setting the edge than I would have guessed coming from college with not a lot of reps.  Also needs to develop some pass rush counters, really doesn’t rush with a plan, this will come with reps though.  His numbers 1 Pick, 4 PD, 1 FF, 4 Sacks, 50 Tackles (42 Solo, 8 Combined) 8 TFL, 10 QB hits.  I was very happy with his play this year and I think if he takes the next step next year, we have our Premier Pass rusher already on contract and on a Rookie Deal.  His play as a rookie is one of the reasons I am not going hard with the Trade for or sign a premier pass-rusher.  Though if a trade presents itself, I will look at it as we need at least two, even if you bring Hughes or Addison back for the rotation. 

 

AJ Epenesa, age 24, 0.61% of Cap, 1.602M Cap hit (685K Savings) – Same numbers as a rookie roughly 1.5 Sacks, 14 Tackles (8 Solo, 6 Assist) 2 TFL, 9 QB hits.  He looks to me that he just cannot hold the weight through the season and why he drops off as the season progresses.  Though a Cheap Rotational Piece he isn’t going anywhere this year.  But does have a roll in the rotation. 

 

Carlos Basham Jr, Age 25, 0.61% of Cap, 1.278 Cap Hit (No Savings) – Played in only 8 games but made the most of his time IMO.  Logged 2.5 Sacks 18 Tackles (11 Solo and 7 Assists), 4 TFL and QB Hits.  I would have liked to see more playing time from him in the season to really get a feel for him.  But I would say a pretty successful Rookie year playing in a heavy Rotation with a lot of vets on the roster as well. 

 

Mike Love, age 28, 0.39% against Cap 830K Cap hit (830K Savings) – Futures deal signing.

 

Notable DE UFAs

 

Jadeveon Clowney, 29, CLE

 

Emmanuel Ogbah, 28, MIA – Here would be the Target I would shoot for if signing a DE this offseason.  Would likely get a Jerry Hughes level deal at 10-11M AAV.  Productive pass-rusher, however these tend to come up via trade, not very often double digit sack DEs hit the market, and there is none this year, to be honest all the top sackers probably get the Franchise Tag. 

 

Arden Key, 26, SF – Here is my sleeper, an OLB with the length for the DE in McDermott Rotation, needs to likely add weight playing in the 250 range.  But would be a nice serviceable passrusher coming from a good defense.  Logged 7 sacks and 16 pressures in 374 snaps.  Would think you can get him in the 8M range.

 

Initial Draft Look with Initial Grades (no particular order and nowhere ready to really discuss draft)

 

Round 1 (left off all the top passrushers because they are not going to be there where we pick)

Jermaine Johnson II, 6’4” 262 – He is my last 1st round graded DE in this class.  Very good run defender, and does have a plan while rushing the passer, knows how to set moves up and keep college OTs off his frame.  However, he runs cold pass rushing often, meaning not many counters and if an OT gets into his frame he is done.  IMO he is a Base End, better run stopper than pass rusher.

 

What I would do I think.

 

I would sign Mario Addison back as a Veteran.  And Sign Arden Key, 5 years 45M (9M AAV) with 20M guaranteed.  Need to find the space to do that but it is there.  I would then look for maybe another in draft late to develop.

 

That would leave me with

 

Groot

Key

Epenesa

Addison

Basham

 

That should work out to a young productive set of pass rushers with position flexibility with Groot and Basham to drop inside, and Key to drop into OLBer (Similar to Lorax back in the day).  Reason I am looking for UFA (Key) is I don’t think the Bills will go back to the Draft well after having spent a 1, and two 2s in recent drafts.  Could also go on from Addison and look for a 1 year vet after the draft if need be. 

 

Past Writeups:

Linebackers

Secondary

 

So first off Thanks again for your writeup and all the work you put into it.

 

Just a couple of perhaps nit-picky points:

1) you focus on statistics when evaluating some of our DL - example Zim "In 6 games this year Zimmer had 1 sack, 8 tackles (2 Solo, 6 Combined) and 2TFL with 4 QB hits.  Those are not bad numbers for the playing time he had, but very replaceable and NOT worth anything more than Minimum this upcoming year.  I personally would move on. "

 

Then later on you identify Foley Fatukasi as a "prototypical 1 Tech space eater".  It's a point that the Bills (surprisingly to me) had Zimmer playing 1TDT at the start of the season and that's how he's listed on their depth chart, in which case looking at his "stats" doesn't tell the picture of whether or not he was giving the Bills what they wanted there.   I think last season, McDermott really really liked Zimmer.  He is crazy fast for a big guy and apparently crazy strong too, and has the drive to watch film both of opponents and his own, trying to improve. 

 

What we don't know, is what his knee injury was and what the recovery timeline might be.  Other than that he needed surgery, he must not have wanted the info out there. 

 

2) You missed Brandon Bryant as also under a "futures contract".  That said - I don't see the Bills going into the off-season with only Bryant, Ankou, Phillips, and Oliver under contract.  I can't tell you what they'll do, but for $1.5M savings, I would think they'd wait to part ways with Star unless he retires (or someone comes over with a trade offer, but we have it on "authority" here no other team in the league would pay his current salary so....And No, Ankou did not play as well as Star because he had the same "numbers" (see point above about stats not giving the picture of whether the DT is giving the Bills what they want)

 

3) Beane conspicuously did NOT mention Mario Addison as someone they might try to bring back.  He did mention being interested in Hughes "if it made sense for both sides", if Hughes wants to come back.  Now Beane does play stuff close to the vest, but he's also usually pretty honest.

 

4) I don't think Groot inside is an option.  Not in his skill set. 

[Brand J]

This team has leaky holes everywhere to be honest. There’s not a single position group outside of QB and S that couldn’t use an upgrade.

[Big Blitz]

Move heaven and earth to get an elite DE on the other side of Groot and this team could be ridiculously good.  Just like that.

 

Its either that or Chis Godwin.  Same impact on the offense.

 

Those are the only 2 positions I'm breaking the bank on.  And you can only do one of them.  

 

I have no idea who this DE is or where we get him.  So I'm leaning toward Godwin.

 

I'll save the justification for that in your WR breakdown.  

 

[Sierra Foothills]

9 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

 

3.  When AJ was drafted, wasn't it stated that he could also slide inside?  Has this ever happened?  He seems to lack the "burst" you need from a DE.  

 

 

 

4 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

I’d like to see Epenesa get his weight back up to where it was at Iowa, but functional, not just fat. I also want to see Cody Ford approach this off-season like a mad man, trimming up and getting stronger in his lower body. These dudes were picked in the 2nd round after stellar collegiate careers. I refuse to believe the talent isn’t there, especially in Epenesa’s case because he seems like such a hard worker.

 

Great topic and write up. I only have this to offer:

 

IMO the Bills have mishandled AJ Epenesa. Watch his tape from Iowa. Power player, bullrusher whose handfighting allowed him to out-leverage and defeat blocking. I was thrilled when the Bills took him. He was a guy who could get sacks but also contain and compress the pocket somewhat like Joe Klecko or Cam Jordan (not a classic edge rusher). His tape of destroying Austin Jackson in the Holiday Bowl, a man 45 pounds heavier was compelling to say the least. There virtually wasn't any college tape that didn't show him methodically and inexorably working his blocker into the quarterback.

 

Their directive for him to lose weight reminds me of when the Broncos drafted Robert Ayers and tried to turn him from an excellent all-around 4-3 end into a 3-4 edge rusher... a failure.

 

The Bills making Epenesa lose weight resulted in him losing his greatest strength... strength.