2022 Offseason Primer Position Group: Secondary

[MAJBobby]

Well, it is another offseason, after a disappointing loss in the playoffs.  Now that being said It is time to get everyone ready for the offseason.  Knowing our window is wide open if 17 is behind center I take solace in that fact and makes these offseason primers a little easier for me to write.  Like always this is my own thinking, and I will not really get into draft picks or even UFAs at this point, more as a philosophy in where I would look to put those offseason assets into.

 

Doesn’t make sense to really do UFAs until after the Tags are given out, but I may list just a couple if I decide to address thee Position Group in UFA same with Draft.  They will likely be broken into tiers if I do list UFAs or prospects.

 

Like Always I will link the writeups of the position groups that I have already done in the bottom.  I normally have routinely started with the Offensive Side so I think I will switch it up and go Defense first this year, but as always if you all request a position group, I will work that. I use SPOTRAC for my salary information, I know more like OTC, so numbers might be a little different I just prefer SPOTRAC more.   I also use profootball reference for the stats.

 

So here we go…  Hope you enjoy these primers, flame away.

 

Bills CAP Space: Top 51 = -1.374M So obviously there is some work to do with this so keeping that in mind when I write the numbers.

 

Secondary – 12 players on contact taking up 23.13% of CAP, 6th highest in the NFL.

Overall, as a whole, I do think this is a area of a sneaky priority need.  I know we had the No 1 passing Defense in the league but at the same time you must look at the QBs that we played to get there.  I know you do not pick your schedule but cannot just spout the top defense without putting that in context.  And I know I may get flamed for some of what I write in these and that is OK I am always willing to learn more. 

 

Safety – 5 players, 23.67M in cap charges, 11.25% of the Bills cap.

 

UFAs

 

Siran Neal – 27 years old – While I like Siran in the role he plays, that Role also doesn’t warrant a big money contract.  If I can get him back in the fold for Veteran Minimum, I would do that, if not I move on.  Cannot pay decent money to a role player that would be replaced by a rookie or someone already on the roster.  So, anything more than a Veteran Min I move on. 

 

On Contract

 

Jordan Poyer, age 31, 5.12% of cap, 10.78M cap hit (7.176M in savings) – I start with Poyer, 2022 is his last year of his contract.  I would start with Poyer’s play imo fell off this year, however that being said he is still a productive player, I think this is an extension candidate add a couple years and lower the 2022 cap hit.  But also at the same time could be a player that couple be traded I would think the Age and contract he still couple pull a 3rd at worst.  These are the tough decisions once you pay a QB it is hard to have two plus 10M cap hit players at Safety.  Now he did make 1st team All Pro and tied his career high in picks with 5.  He also added 3 sacks (Career High), 93 total tackles (66 solo, 27 ast, and 8 TFL).  The tackle numbers overall are down, TFL was almost tying his career high (9).  The bad angle thing that he has had at times in his career popped up again along with his missed tackles rate was way up again (11.4%, 12 total missed), in context his last two years was sub-10, and first year with the Bills was 13%.  He had his best opposing rating against in his career at 42.2 and lowest TDs against at 1.  It wasn’t the pass game that he struggled it was his run support and tackling. I think I would add a 2-year extension with a void year to get the cap hit down.  But got to start thinking about replacing one, hard to pay a Top QB and then have two 10M plus Safeties. 

 

Micah Hyde, age 32, 4.84% of cap, 10.2M cap hit (5.2M in savings) – Hyde is like Poyer in that Beane set it up that one could be moved on from if needed and Hamlin flashed enough in his time to make that a conversation at OBD.  I do think though older if more important to this defense than Poyer is.  Made the All-Pro list for his second time in Buffalo.  Numbers are 5 Picks (tied career high), 1 FF, 2 FR, 74 total tackles (53 solo, 21 ast, 4 TFL), these tackle numbers are pretty much consistent with his career numbers.  He had a 72.8 rating against when targeted, and had a 12.9% missed tackle rate, but our safeties struggled this year tackling, But Hyde’s missed rate is right in line with his career missed rate as well.  What he does bring that Poyer also doesn’t is his Punt Catching skill.  Maybe the bills do nothing here and just, but with both starting safeties on wrong side of 30 already something needs to be done in this area in the offseason. 

 

Jaquan Johnson, age 27, 0.48% against cap, 1.01M cap hit (965K savings) – I think this would be an easy 1M savings, just never really progressed from his draft year, and is on the final year of the rookie deal.  I think Hamlin has passed him in rotation so this would be the type of shrewd moves you have to make when paying a top QB.  His numbers are 1 Pick, 14 Tackles (8 solo and 6 ast) and that is with 1 game logging 100% of the safety snaps, 5 more games well over 10% of the defensive snaps.  He does play over 60% of the ST snaps but is nothing special.  I would move on and save the close to 1M in cap.

 

Damar Hamlin, age 24, 0.41% against cap, 865K in cap hit (744K in savings) – As a rookie you should be happy with the results of him when he was on the field.  I do not think he has forced the issue regarding Poyer or Hyde but has forced the issue with Johnson though.  Not much in terms of numbers 2 PD, 2 Tackles (both solo).  Also plays special teams.  I do think if you want to save a quick Mil in savings, Hamlin takes over Johnson’s role and Johnson is cut.

 

Josh Thomas, age 26, 0.39% against cap, 825K in cap hit, (825K in savings) – PS player signed to a futures deal.

 

Corner – 7 players, 25.03M in cap charges, 11.89% of the Bills Cap

 

UFAs

 

Levi Wallace – Cap Hit Last year 1.75M, Projected Cap Hit on new deal – 9.6M – This is going to be a hard one, because at first glance he played his best season, even more evident when Tre went down.  Here is the problem also as he made himself a lot of money this season.  56 total tackles (2nd best in career) 47 solo and 11 ast, 1 TFL.  Also, he added 2 picks and a FR.  Allowed the lowest rating again in his career this yar at 72.6 rating and a missed tackle rat of 10.8%.  This is the hard one for me.  In theory I would not want him to leave, but then again at 10M a year, I am not sure I want to go that high.  Personally, I could go either way with Levi this offseason.

 

On Contract

 

Tre White – age 27, 7.79% of cap, 16.4M cap hit (No Savings) – White is a stud, and is not going anywhere, however his ACL injury and no real No 2 on roster at this point I think it becomes a position group of need in the offseason.  I would rather address this position in the draft with a top CB if one were there in the first round.  Before INJ he was on track to gain another Pro Bowl, and All Pro.  ONLY issue I saw in Tre’s game this year was missed tackles, and that also was evident in the numbers of a 19.6% missed tackle rate.  But rest right in line with 2019 and was trending better than 2020.  Allowed a 51.6% completion rate (2019 best year at 50%), lowest yards per completion in his career at 9.9, lowest yards per target at 5.1, Rating against was 59.9, for second best (best year 2019 was 43.3).  If the ACL doesn’t limit him going forward and only thing, I would hedge against he still as elite this year.

 

Taron Johnson – age 26, 2.14% of cap, 4.5M Cap hit (No Savings) – Taron is a top nickel and is now paid like one, with him being paid I think that choice he was paid it tells me Levi likely will not.  What is interesting about Taron is that the Bills have an out after the 2022 season.  But I expect at his he plays out this contract if he continues to stay healthy.  76 total tackles, (53 solo, 23 ast) and 3 QB hits.  He also added 1 Pick and 1 FF.  He had career high 55.1% Completion % against, and his second best in his career of 75.5 rating against. 

 

Dane Jackson – age 26, 0.43% of cap, 895K Cap hit. (895K savings) – Since week 13 was hovering around 100% snap count, and at above 60% in a couple other games as well.  He had 41 total tackles (33 Solo, 8 ast) and a single TFL, 6 PDs.  50% completion percentage against when targeted, and a 70.2 rating against.  I think what he showed at the end of the season is why the Bills will let Levi walk, and slide Dane into that CB2 slot, (unless we draft a high-end rookie).  I was happy with his play as I looked at him once he got those snaps when Tre went down. 

 

Cam Lewis – age 25, 0.44% of cap 925K Cap Hit (895K savings) – Not enough to really say there is anything there besides what he has been a PS player.

 

Tim Harris – age 26, 0.43% of cap, 895K Cap Hit (895K savings) – Former Brown on Futures Deal.

 

Olaijah Griffen – age 23, 0.33% of cap, 705K cap hit (705K savings) – PS player last year not enough to see if anything is there.

 

Nick McCloud – age 24, 0.3% of cap, 705K cap hit (705k savings) – Futures Deal

 

Notable top 5 UFAs

 

Safety
Marcus Williams, NO

Tyrann Mathieu, KC

Jessie Bates III, Cincy

Marcus Maye, NYJ

Quandre Diggs, SA

 

Corner

J.C. Jackson, NE

Stephon Gilmore, CAR

Carlton Davis, TB

Darious Williams, LAR

Casey Hayward Jr. Vegas

 

Initial Draft Look with Initial Grades (no particular order and nowhere ready to really discuss draft)

 

Round 1

Kyle Hamilton, S, 6’4” 210, ND

Ahmad Gardner, CB, 6’2” 190, Cincy

Derek Stingley Jr, CB, 6’1”, 200, LSU

Andrew Booth Jr., CB, 6’0”, 195, Clemson

Roger McCreary, CB, 6’0” 193, Auburn

 

Round 2

Kyler Gordon, CB, 6’0”, 200, Washington

Martin Emerson, CB, 6’2 195, Miss St.

Daxton Hill, S, 6’0”, 195, Michigan

Lewis Cine, S, 6’1”, 190, Georgia

Jalen Pitre, S, 6’3”, 198, Baylor

Jaquan Brisker, S, 6’1”, 210, Penn St

Trent McDuffie, CB, 5’11” 190, Washington

Edited February 7, 2022 by MAJBobby

[BuffaloRebound]

It would be a surprise if Bills don’t draft a CB in 1st round.  There’s already a lot of money tied up in the secondary. That means no Wallace or any other free agent that ain’t making the minimum.  And we do need some more speed back there.  

[MAJBobby]

Just now, BuffaloRebound said:

It would be a surprise if Bills don’t draft a CB in 1st round.  There’s already a lot of money tied up in the secondary. That means no Wallace or any other free agent that ain’t making the minimum.  And we do need some more speed back there.  

I agree.  I think this is a prime position group for a Premier Draft Asset used (1st or 2nd) round.

[GunnerBill]

Thanks @MAJBobby and these threads are always good every year for generating a decent constructive debate. 

 

Two quick points from me on this:

 

1. Siran Neal - the question on him will not come down to his play as a DB / dime - it will come down to his work as a gunner. Given that Taiwan Jones is 33 (and will be 34 before next season commences) I think it is likely that the Bills move on there and I doubt they want to lose both halves of what has been an elite gunner combination. Taiwan was on a 1 year $1.75m deal this past year. Wouldn't be surprised to see Neal get a deal at that kind of value. 

 

2. Draft - The DBs are the group I feel closest to prepared on and I am not convinced on McCreary as a day 1 grade, he is more a borderline or an early day 2 guy to me, but otherwise broadly agree with your list. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Dang, you are harsh about Poyer. He was a first team all pro this year! 
 

Overall, I think the team probably loves their current safety group. I think they really like Johnson too (unsure what makes you think he has been passed over). 
 

I suspect they make Levi a solid offer, and maybe he tests the market. 

[MAJBobby]

23 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Dang, you are harsh about Poyer. He was a first team all pro this year! 
 

Overall, I think the team probably loves their current safety group. I think they really like Johnson too (unsure what makes you think he has been passed over). 
 

I suspect they make Levi a solid offer, and maybe he tests the market. 

Poyers play was not good (IMO), with the exception of the picks, and those flash stats get his post season accolades.  Also reason I think Johnson was passed over is Hamlin as a rookie was taking the field more than he was.  And when looking for shrewd CAP moves, he would be one of them.  I will admit he is a high snap count ST player.  Issue becomes when you are paying your QB you cannot have 4 Gunners only that are paid in the millions.  

 

One other thing to note.  

 

With the money tied into the secondary I think it is money in money out on them.  So if you want a UFA Top CB than you lose one of your 10M safeties.  Otherwise this group is addressed in the draft IMO

Edited February 7, 2022 by MAJBobby

[DCbillsfan]

I think Wallace is gone.  He'll be offered a good contract that the Bills can't/won't match.  

 

I could see the Bills signing a veteran CB to a 1 yr deal and drafting a CB in the first 3 rounds.  At least I hope that's the plan.  They need more speed, size, and athleticism at CB2.

[BuffaloBillyG]

I think you are going to get a LOT of pushback on the Poyer comments. Doesn't mean you're wrong.

 

It feels like the accolades he's getting now are more about making up for years where he deserved it. 

 

Now, he's still a solid player. A leader on that side of the ball. But tomorrow always comes and players get older. 

 

The thing that I think solidifies Poyer's spot is that our defense lacks playmakers...and he makes plays in the passing game. At least for this coming season.

[MAJBobby]

19 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I think you are going to get a LOT of pushback on the Poyer comments. Doesn't mean you're wrong.

 

It feels like the accolades he's getting now are more about making up for years where he deserved it. 

 

Now, he's still a solid player. A leader on that side of the ball. But tomorrow always comes and players get older. 

 

The thing that I think solidifies Poyer's spot is that our defense lacks playmakers...and he makes plays in the passing game. At least for this coming season.

I agree.  I dont think Bills will move on from Poyer, and I dont think I would fully support it, but I know he is another year older, issues with angles and speed and tackling cropped up again that was gone the previous two years, but were prevalent in year one here, and in CLE.  But there is nothing behind him or Hyde really at this point.  But we have to start thinking about it, and there are safeties in the draft I would love to get in the mix, because we are going to get to a point where 2 10M plus safeties is un doable financially in the future IMO.

[BuffaloRebound]

From strictly a numbers standpoint, you can’t have 2 safeties making $10m each, a CB making $17m, a slot CB making $7.5m, Milano making $11m, and now Edmunds making $13m and then Wallace making $9m.  That’d be $90m on your back 7 starters.  At some point you gotta get younger and cheaper back there.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I have always liked Levi but its time to let him walk. Should net a 5th or maybe even a 4th round comp pick. Let Neal go to and he will help them stay with a net loss of players for the comp pick calculator.

 

My plan: 

1. Extend both Poyer and Hyde to create some cap space. Both players are getting old but they have been relatively healthy and as evidenced by the INT against the Pats, Hyde has not lost a step. Keep this tandem together for one more year.

2. Draft CB#2 in the first round. 

3. Draft safety in round 4-6

4. Dumpster dive a veteran minimum CB that can either back up nickel or play some safety in a pinch 

 

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

Not a fan of Poyer or Hyde.

 

but boy do they love to talk and pose and grand stand after beating the mighty likes of Trevor Simian or Mac Jones…

 

Against the Brady’s and Mahomes of the world…never seem to be able to find their fake selfs.

 

oh well…

[Ethan in Cleveland]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

From strictly a numbers standpoint, you can’t have 2 safeties making $10m each, a CB making $17m, a slot CB making $7.5m, Milano making $11m, and now Edmunds making $13m and then Wallace making $9m.  That’d be $90m on your back 7 starters.  At some point you gotta get younger and cheaper back there.  

Yes but that day is in 2023 not 2022. Draft CB#2 this year. Milano and White can be restructured for cap savings each year. 

And Edmunds can be traded this year or just let him walk next year. Someone will value him enough to get a good return on a trade. 

 

[MAJBobby]

2 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I have always liked Levi but its time to let him walk. Should net a 5th or maybe even a 4th round comp pick. Let Neal go to and he will help them stay with a net loss of players for the comp pick calculator.

 

My plan: 

1. Extend both Poyer and Hyde to create some cap space. Both players are getting old but they have been relatively healthy and as evidenced by the INT against the Pats, Hyde has not lost a step. Keep this tandem together for one more year.

2. Draft CB#2 in the first round. 

3. Draft safety in round 4-6

4. Dumpster dive a veteran minimum CB that can either back up nickel or play some safety in a pinch 

 

I get the concept with Poyer and Hyde. The practice of extending older players to lessen cap I never liked. Eventually that piper will always come to collect. 
 

but in concept this Secondary needs youth and speed I do think the easy answer is your starting 4 look like this (with no adjustments in Contracts)

 

CB1 White

CB2 Dane Jackson/ Rookie

S Poyer

S Hyde add a rookie in the mix if you want to hedge against Johnson or Hamlin. 
 

but when doing this just for Secondary (LBers next) I get a feeling a lot of fan favs are going to be moving on in the near future. 
 

Hopefully Vets are going to be willing to play with Allen for the shot at a championship like they have historically with top end QBs. That will help some of the cap tightness Beane and Co are going to have to navigate. 

[ganesh]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I think you are going to get a LOT of pushback on the Poyer comments. Doesn't mean you're wrong.

 

It feels like the accolades he's getting now are more about making up for years where he deserved it. 

 

Now, he's still a solid player. A leader on that side of the ball. But tomorrow always comes and players get older. 

 

The thing that I think solidifies Poyer's spot is that our defense lacks playmakers...and he makes plays in the passing game. At least for this coming season.

This is like the Lawyer Milloy situation.   Lawyer could play at a high level, but he was a cap casualty caught in a numbers game.   Milloy was the heart and soul of those NE defense...but they lit him go.  The same happened to Richard Seymour.   It happens. I wouldn't be surprised if Poyer is moved.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

11 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I get the concept with Poyer and Hyde. The practice of extending older players to lessen cap I never liked. Eventually that piper will always come to collect. 
 

but in concept this Secondary needs youth and speed I do think the easy answer is your starting 4 look like this (with no adjustments in Contracts)

 

CB1 White

CB2 Dane Jackson/ Rookie

S Poyer

S Hyde add a rookie in the mix if you want to hedge against Johnson or Hamlin. 
 

but when doing this just for Secondary (LBers next) I get a feeling a lot of fan favs are going to be moving on in the near future. 
 

Hopefully Vets are going to be willing to play with Allen for the shot at a championship like they have historically with top end QBs. That will help some of the cap tightness Beane and Co are going to have to navigate. 

Yes you have to pay sometime but other  contracts will come off the books like Morse, Addison, Star, and a few others. 

Sooner or later as you said the young guys have to produce nearly immediately. 

People talk about a 15 year window with JA. This year and next year was the window. After that his contract kicks in and the window becomes a crease.

[MAJBobby]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Thanks @MAJBobby and these threads are always good every year for generating a decent constructive debate. 

 

Two quick points from me on this:

 

1. Siran Neal - the question on him will not come down to his play as a DB / dime - it will come down to his work as a gunner. Given that Taiwan Jones is 33 (and will be 34 before next season commences) I think it is likely that the Bills move on there and I doubt they want to lose both halves of what has been an elite gunner combination. Taiwan was on a 1 year $1.75m deal this past year. Wouldn't be surprised to see Neal get a deal at that kind of value. 

 

2. Draft - The DBs are the group I feel closest to prepared on and I am not convinced on McCreary as a day 1 grade, he is more a borderline or an early day 2 guy to me, but otherwise broadly agree with your list. 

I think a 1.75M would be fine for Neal. That I think is right around where the Vet Min would be for him. 
 

it will be interesting to watch Beane navigate the Cap now that we have a QB paid elite money. And how the Bills handle recruiting for those players near the end of their careers willing to give discounts for a run that happens with Elite QBs

[BuffaloBillyG]

28 minutes ago, ganesh said:

This is like the Lawyer Milloy situation.   Lawyer could play at a high level, but he was a cap casualty caught in a numbers game.   Milloy was the heart and soul of those NE defense...but they lit him go.  The same happened to Richard Seymour.   It happens. I wouldn't be surprised if Poyer is moved.

It would be a mild shock if they moved on this season. As the OP states, we have nothing on roster that would replace him. 

 

If we look to draft it would likely be a talent dip/cohesiveness dip. Plus you lose his leadership. Same could be said for most on them FA market...only then you would be likely paying a bulky sum for a top FA anyway. Not a smart move for a team that can push to win it all next year.

[MJS]

I completely disagree that Poyer's play fell off this year. I think this has been his best year as a Bill.

 

I agree with most everything else, though. Nice job.

 

I could see moving on from Wallace because I think he is about to get paid. He is a consistent starter since coming in the league on one of the top passing defenses, and he just had his best season as a pro filling in many games for Tre White as the #1 corner. There are other teams with far greater need at corner than the Bills who will shell out some money for him.

[No_Matter_What]

7 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

 

Jaquan Johnson, age 27, 0.48% against cap, 1.01M cap hit (965K savings) – I think this would be an easy 1M savings, just never really progressed from his draft year, and is on the final year of the rookie deal.  I think Hamlin has passed him in rotation so this would be the type of shrewd moves you have to make when paying a top QB.  His numbers are 1 Pick, 14 Tackles (8 solo and 6 ast) and that is with 1 game logging 100% of the safety snaps, 5 more games well over 10% of the defensive snaps.  He does play over 60% of the ST snaps but is nothing special.  I would move on and save the close to 1M in cap.

 

6 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Poyers play was not good (IMO), with the exception of the picks, and those flash stats get his post season accolades.  Also reason I think Johnson was passed over is Hamlin as a rookie was taking the field more than he was.  And when looking for shrewd CAP moves, he would be one of them.  I will admit he is a high snap count ST player.  Issue becomes when you are paying your QB you cannot have 4 Gunners only that are paid in the millions. 

 

Thanks for doing these again. IIRC last year you went into more detail with respect to FA and possible scenarios in each position group.

 

There is one thing I don't get - when you talk about Jaquan Johnson as potential cut candidate due to savings. That sounds weird to me. I don't think you "save" anything when you cut someone making less than a million. You need to replace that guy. Cutting him does not help our cap situation at all. If anything, we NEED to keep guys like him. There is no point in cutting him, unless we sign someone better for same price (which is very unlikely imo), or if we plan to upgrade the position (which doesn't make sense to me since he is a backup who almost never sees the field). I am really confused.