Josh - 16 games 2020 vs 2021 stats

[Wayne Cubed]

I don't have it to hand but remembering seeing a statistic about QBs that have had 40+ TD seasons and nearly every season to follow has seen a drop off. There's been one or 2. So I expected Josh to drop off from what he had the previous season. He hasn't been as great but he's still been very good and is within the range of what I would expect other elite QBs to drop off to after a monster season. Rodgers isn't near what he did in 2020. Tom Brady equaled his output from 2020, which at 44 is mental. Mahomes is down on 2020. It was most likely going to happen to Josh and that doesn't mean it's a bad thing. He didn't fall off a cliff. To me he's proved he belongs.

[CincyBillsFan]

The challenge with QB ratings is that none of the systems employed does a good job of holistically capturing a QB's true level of play.

 

Take last nights Browns/Steelers game.  Baker Mayfield finished with a QB rating of 53 which was much better then Allen's QB rating of 17. Yet at NO time during yesterday;s game did Mayfield perform better then Allen did at QB against Atlanta.  It wasn't even close.

 

And before people say "but Baker was sacked 9 times what could he do" I would counter that Allen playing behind the exact same line as Mayfield last night would have had half as many sacks.  Right there, the ability of Allen to avoid being sacked is exponentially better then Mayfield's but does not show up in the stats.

 

Or look at Dak Prescott.  He had a decent QB rating on Sunday in the Cowboys loss to Arizona.  Yet watching the game he was a worse QB then Allen on that day as he could only muster 7 points through three and a half quarters and had a key fumble that gave the Cards a two score lead late.

 

 

[billybrew1]

18 hours ago, artmalibu said:

I think he is better this year than last year.  Stats are only part of the equation.  

 

 

Why?

[billybrew1]

4 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The challenge with QB ratings is that none of the systems employed does a good job of holistically capturing a QB's true level of play.

 

Take last nights Browns/Steelers game.  Baker Mayfield finished with a QB rating of 53 which was much better then Allen's QB rating of 17. Yet at NO time during yesterday;s game did Mayfield perform better then Allen did at QB against Atlanta.  It wasn't even close.

 

And before people say "but Baker was sacked 9 times what could he do" I would counter that Allen playing behind the exact same line as Mayfield last night would have had half as many sacks.  Right there, the ability of Allen to avoid being sacked is exponentially better then Mayfield's but does not show up in the stats.

 

Or look at Dak Prescott.  He had a decent QB rating on Sunday in the Cowboys loss to Arizona.  Yet watching the game he was a worse QB then Allen on that day as he could only muster 7 points through three and a half quarters and had a key fumble that gave the Cards a two score lead late.

 

 

Pretty good logic, I like it. Josh truly is a franchise QB and anybody that really watches the Bills knows this.

Still, I'd like to know how Atlanta shut-down our pass game. Do they have a very good secondary? Or what happened? Miami has a great secondary yet Josh eats fish for breakfast regularly....  And as an early 2022 prediction, I say the Bills sweep the East again! ( I have said this two years-in-a-row, now three. With Josh we're just the best the East has to offer.

 

Go Bills!

[Seventeen]

4 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The challenge with QB ratings is that none of the systems employed does a good job of holistically capturing a QB's true level of play.

 

Take last nights Browns/Steelers game.  Baker Mayfield finished with a QB rating of 53 which was much better then Allen's QB rating of 17. Yet at NO time during yesterday;s game did Mayfield perform better then Allen did at QB against Atlanta.  It wasn't even close.

 

And before people say "but Baker was sacked 9 times what could he do" I would counter that Allen playing behind the exact same line as Mayfield last night would have had half as many sacks.  Right there, the ability of Allen to avoid being sacked is exponentially better then Mayfield's but does not show up in the stats.

 

Or look at Dak Prescott.  He had a decent QB rating on Sunday in the Cowboys loss to Arizona.  Yet watching the game he was a worse QB then Allen on that day as he could only muster 7 points through three and a half quarters and had a key fumble that gave the Cards a two score lead late.

 

 

 

How many drops / throwaways contributed to the 17 rating ? Obviously the tipped ball interceptions (and the one other ) drove it down but the 17 rating doesn't include 81 yards rushing and 2 TDS. 

 

[artmalibu]

45 minutes ago, billybrew1 said:

Why?

 

 

Because I actually watched all the games this year and last year....

[CincyBillsFan]

4 hours ago, Roy Hobbs said:

 

How many drops / throwaways contributed to the 17 rating ? Obviously the tipped ball interceptions (and the one other ) drove it down but the 17 rating doesn't include 81 yards rushing and 2 TDS. 

 

On the two 2nd half TD drives (80 & 70 yards) that the Bills had to win the game Allen was 3 of 4 for 32 yards passing (he missed on a deep pass to Diggs that was close).  In addition Allen completed a 2 pt conversion throw to Beasley. Allen rushed 6 times for 49 yards.  There were a couple of 3rd down conversions and one 4th down conversion.  That's a QB playing at an exceptionally high level in tough weather conditions when the game was on the line.

 

 

[Wizard]

Top 2 talent at the position and no worse than a top 4 QB in the league for the next decade.

 

Brady and Rodgers are two best and out the door soon. And, if Allen has similar line play/weapons he is top 3 MVP candidate.

 

Allen, Mahomes, Herbert, and Burrow all produced similar stats and are the best 4 young guns going forward. Allen is just as good as a passer as these guys, a better runner, and his leadership and personality for a team works perfectly with Buffalo.

 

Allen needs a few linemen, more consistent RB play and a few more short passing routes to his running backs in his tool bag. Give him those and he will be even better than a top 10 offensive player in this league.the next 10 years. A Super Bowl win and at least 1 MVP is very doable for this guy.

Edited January 5, 2022 by Wizard

[Orlando Tim]

I think Josh has been less consistent this year, which might be due to teams deciding not to let Josh beat them. He though did have his best game ever against the Pats*, and was easily the best player on the field against the Bucs, Chiefs and first Pats* game. So he is stepping up in the big games.

[HappyDays]

Despite the slight statistical regression I don't think Allen has regressed as a player at all. Defenses have just caught on to the scheme that he struggles against and he's had to adjust his game to beat it. That's life as a young QB. First he figured out how to beat man coverage, then zone blitzes, then cover 0, now he's figuring out how to beat cover 2 shell. Eventually Allen will have seen and beaten every defensive scheme under the sun.

 

It's crazy to me that people think QBs one day just stop getting better. Brady and Rodgers are playing some of their best football ever right now. Until Allen's body breaks down he will keep improving every year, and I think we are watching him slowly develop into one of the greatest players in NFL history. This year was just another step along that road.

[HappyDays]

Also QB stats are still dependent on the rest of the offense too. So while we're on the subject of regression let's point out that quite a few offensive players regressed this year. Even Diggs regressed slightly. Beasley is a shell of himself. The entire offensive line has gotten worse - in the case of Dawkins and Williams substantially worse. Moss was a legitimate part of the offense last year and this year became an afterthought. Really the only player that I would say took a significant leap forward is Knox. So we have an offense with an all around worse supporting cast facing defenses that have figured out our signature plays. IMO those factors are more responsible for Allen's regression than Allen himself, not that he is completely faultless.

Edited January 5, 2022 by HappyDays

[billsherd]

Last year bills made it look easy to score TD once they got within 5-7 yards of the goal line with the Josh running. This year we seem to struggle to score closer we are to the goal line. 

[Scott7975]

19 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Oh I disagree totally you give Josh a Deandre Hopkins or a CeeDee Lamb who you can just throw a ball up to on a contested catch you put this offense in a whole different level 

All great offenses in this league have at least one guy who the qb can throw the ball up to and say make a play Bills don’t really have that 

Case and point what’s happening in Cincy while Joe Burrow has Chase whose basically their Diggs…on the other side he’s got Tee Higgins 

 

I actually think what the Bills lack is YAC.  I dont know if its the receivers, the type of offense they run, or the way Josh throws the football but our team is one of the worst in the league in YAC.  Most of Josh's yards are air yards.

 

Josh is 3rd in completed air yards

The Bills are 18th in YAC

 

By comparison

 

Mahomes is 10th in completed air yards

Chiefs are 1st in YAC

 

How many times do we watch other teams throw dunk passes and they go for 10-20 yards.  Our offense completely lacks that aspect of the game.

Edited January 5, 2022 by Scott7975

[Thurman#1]

17 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The challenge with QB ratings is that none of the systems employed does a good job of holistically capturing a QB's true level of play.

 

Take last nights Browns/Steelers game.  Baker Mayfield finished with a QB rating of 53 which was much better then Allen's QB rating of 17. Yet at NO time during yesterday;s game did Mayfield perform better then Allen did at QB against Atlanta.  It wasn't even close.

 

And before people say "but Baker was sacked 9 times what could he do" I would counter that Allen playing behind the exact same line as Mayfield last night would have had half as many sacks.  Right there, the ability of Allen to avoid being sacked is exponentially better then Mayfield's but does not show up in the stats.

 

Or look at Dak Prescott.  He had a decent QB rating on Sunday in the Cowboys loss to Arizona.  Yet watching the game he was a worse QB then Allen on that day as he could only muster 7 points through three and a half quarters and had a key fumble that gave the Cards a two score lead late.

 

 

 

 

Allen had 3 INTs. Baker had two, and the one on the final drive was completely on the receiver. Allen put the ball in jeopardy more than Mayfield did. They both had bad passing games. I'd argue Baker's game was less bad, and he was under a ton more pressure than Allen was.

 

You can guess that Allen might have had half as many sacks. But it's a guess.

 

Yes, passer rating doesn't look at runs. That's a strength just as much as a weakness.

 

You're right, I think, that no stats holistically capture the true level of play. Nothing does, really. It's impossible to separate the situation, the opponent, the pressure, and everything else. Nothing can, including viewer perceptions. Perceptions have large subjective components, which is why you get people arguing that this year Josh is better than he was last year, which appears nuts to most viewers.

 

It's too complex a system. Stats do a very good job, but certainly not perfect. Isolating any one factor in the wildly complex game of football is very difficult.

[JMF2006]

The Bills should ask for half the contract money back he clearly regressed  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I said prior to the season we'll see a slight regression, something between his 2020 and 2019 seasons. I think we got that but closer to the 2020 season than the 2019 season.

 

What we've learned from Josh Allen is he's just a football player. His style of play will lead to some inconsistencies throwing the football, much like Brett Favre. He makes less mistakes than Favre. 

[CorkScrewHill]

On 1/3/2022 at 8:51 PM, First Round Bust said:

 

per Sal C

a 5% drop in completions, less yards per game with 5 more picks thrown with several deflections at the line becoming ints.

only sacked 26 times is a credit to him, Burrow has been sacked double that !

running more, but not in red zone,  as overall rush yards are way up with less TDs...its not been as good as last year or has it ?

 

 

There were a lot more bad weather games than last year. One of the things he needs to figure out ala Rodgers is how to alter his style in different situations 

[RunTheBall]

16 hours ago, billybrew1 said:

Pretty good logic, I like it. Josh truly is a franchise QB and anybody that really watches the Bills knows this.

Still, I'd like to know how Atlanta shut-down our pass game. Do they have a very good secondary? Or what happened? Miami has a great secondary yet Josh eats fish for breakfast regularly....  And as an early 2022 prediction, I say the Bills sweep the East again! ( I have said this two years-in-a-row, now three. With Josh we're just the best the East has to offer.

 

Go Bills!

I don’t think they shut us down as much as Josh tried to alter his passing style mid game and it didn’t work.

 

Early on, Josh was hitting guys in the hands and the ball was skipping away. I think he had too much heat on those passes for the conditions. You’d think it would be easy to just take a little mojo off his passes but I think that alters his timing and that’s why the passing game stalled. Hopefully it’s a learning experience for Josh and he learns to take it a little easier from the outset of the game in those conditions so his mental timing, that gets set early in the game, is better.

 

[Coach Tuesday]

As someone said upthread - the Bills need to add one or two YAC monsters to their offense.  Can’t remember the last time someone besides Allen broke a tackle upfield.  Defenses kept the Bills in front of them this season and they lacked the offensive personnel to take advantage of the space.  Beasley is WASHED.

[billsfan1959]

48 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

As someone said upthread - the Bills need to add one or two YAC monsters to their offense.  Can’t remember the last time someone besides Allen broke a tackle upfield.  Defenses kept the Bills in front of them this season and they lacked the offensive personnel to take advantage of the space.  Beasley is WASHED.

 

YAC is a real issue for the Bills this year. Of the top 9 QBs in total passing yards, all are also top 9 in YAC - except for Allen. Allen is 18th in YAC. The percentage of Allen's total yards that are YAC is significantly less than the other top QBs

 

 

 

As far as Beasley goes, IMO, you are are off the mark.

 

Edited January 5, 2022 by billsfan1959