I would have gone for it too!

[BruceVilanch]

Love the call, and I think sneak is usually the right call in that situation, but I was hoping for a RPO to give josh multiple options, oh well, 15-2 isn't going to be bad. Go Bills.

[nedboy7]

I don’t think we lose that game in Buffalo. 

[John from Riverside]

How many times have we successfully seen Josh execute that sneak and 10 trays I bet you he does it nine times

[Roundybout]

  On 10/19/2021 at 4:35 AM, John from Riverside said:

How many times have we successfully seen Josh execute that sneak and 10 trays I bet you he does it nine times

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We have the stats actually - he made 13 of the last 14 and the one failure was on a botched snap. So...almost a 100% rate!

[jkeerie]

They didn't play their best offensively and defensively.  The ball didn't bounce their way and the Titans were the luckier team.  They lost by 3 on the road in a high scoring game.  The Bills aren't making any excuses.  They know they didn't execute and will have two weeks to think about it.  Like last year, I expect them to come back stronger, especially the defense.  They gave up the hail mary last year before the bye and 34 points this year before the bye.  So the Bills will finish strong and hopefully the Titans fate will mirror that of AZ and their trajectory will head downward.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

  On 10/19/2021 at 3:40 AM, Irv said:

We have the AFCE wrapped up. Why not?  Give the Titans a lot of credit.  They battled. We'll see them again. Great game to watch despite the outcome.  Not worried about them unless they get lucky again.    

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We don't have anything wrapped up.

 

But in terms of analytics it was the correct call

 

 

[Matt_In_NH]

  On 10/19/2021 at 3:46 AM, Nextmanup said:

Win Probability going for it on 4th down:  63%

 

Win probability kicking the FG and playing for OT:   42%

 

As I said above, I'm thrilled McDermott and his staff has grown to the point where they did this tonight.

They have gotten a lot better over time.

 

 

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 All 4 th downs or fourth and a half yard?

[Buffarukus]

this is a situation where everyone who says they would have done x y z would also say they would have just qb sneaked if x y z didn't work. it has worked at a extremely high percentage countless times and was just a good play by them and bad luck josh seemed to slip.

 

thats all.

 

they played to win and sometimes that gamble doesn't pay off. with the way they kept marching down the field it was a good call to try and end it right there.

Edited October 19, 2021 by Buffarukus

[Agent 91]

  On 10/19/2021 at 3:46 AM, Nextmanup said:

Win Probability going for it on 4th down:  63%

 

Win probability kicking the FG and playing for OT:   42%

 

As I said above, I'm thrilled McDermott and his staff has grown to the point where they did this tonight.

They have gotten a lot better over time.

 

 

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Where did you get those stats? Not doubting... but really where can I get those stats

[Agent 91]

  On 10/19/2021 at 3:49 AM, Beast said:

I thought he was clearly short. Half a yard anyway.

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Yep. Head got the first hand with the ball never crossed the line

  On 10/19/2021 at 3:53 AM, FireChans said:

I don’t think Allen walking up was the reason Dawkins got pushed back a yard 

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No but could contribute to him not getting his feet set and also could have contributed to the defense getting set. When he walked to the line they knew what it was going to be. He afforded them to adjust. Dawkins may have gotten blown up but a quick snap and an Allen reach over the top usually will get you that first down

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Going for it was fine.  Even the sneak call was fine.  You would hope for something a little more creative since the entire world knew Josh was sneaking it when he went under center.  

How about running that Chiefs play they threw to Kelce at the goal lien against the Bills?

 

No worried. The next tough game is not until December

  On 10/19/2021 at 6:19 AM, Agent 91 said:

Yep. Head got the first hand with the ball never crossed the line

No but could contribute to him not getting his feet set and also could have contributed to the defense getting set. When he walked to the line they knew what it was going to be. He afforded them to adjust. Dawkins may have gotten blown up but a quick snap and an Allen reach over the top usually will get you that first down

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Can't reach unless it is over the goalline.  

[stevestojan]

I think we all already “shnow” who lost us that game. 

[Agent 91]

  On 10/19/2021 at 7:05 AM, Ethan in Portland said:

Going for it was fine.  Even the sneak call was fine.  You would hope for something a little more creative since the entire world knew Josh was sneaking it when he went under center.  

How about running that Chiefs play they threw to Kelce at the goal lien against the Bills?

 

No worried. The next tough game is not until December

Can't reach unless it is over the goalline.  

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Is that the rule? I thought you could but I stand corrected

[bmur66]

Nope. The way that game was going I would have kicked the field goal. 

[Greg S]

I would have kicked the FG and gone to OT.

[YoloinOhio]

It was the correct decision. On to the next. 

 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

  On 10/19/2021 at 4:59 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

We don't have anything wrapped up.

 

But in terms of analytics it was the correct call

 

 

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Love the advanced stats. 

 

If you want to look at "gut feeling" our OFF was playing great and the DEF was trash. I'd much rather trust my offense and Josh to score a TD in that situation than have the game come down to the OT coin flip. 

 

I think it was absolutely the right decision to go for it. I'm not sold on the play call, but tough to blame Daboll when his LT gets blown TF up and QB slips. 

[WhoTom]

I'm good with the decision to go for it and I'm even okay with the play call. Remember in the Steelers game when they tried to get cute on a 4th and short? The right call then would have been a QB sneak, which Josh makes way more often than not, and that was, statistically, the right call last night.

 

As for kicking the FG and playing for OT, it comes down to a coin toss. Our D, which was gashed all night, was tired, so I could see them giving up a TD on the first drive if TN wins the toss. On the other hand, if the Bills win the toss, given our lack of red zone success last night, they may have only gotten a FG. Raw analytics say go for it, and the overall team performance last night reinforced that.

 

 

[NewEra]

  On 10/19/2021 at 3:52 AM, Azucho98 said:

The way the D played yea I don't blame them for going for it.  They didn't stop them since the interception in the first quarter.  They were so afraid of the run it totally opened up the pass game.  We were outcoached again in Tennessee.  How did the Jets beat these guys?

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They didn’t have aj brown or Julio

[Billsatlastin2018]

  On 10/19/2021 at 3:43 AM, Big Turk said:

I mean if you run that same play 100 times how many times does Allen not get a first down? Maybe that was the only time out of the 100?

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The Career average for the GOAT on 3/4th. & 1 is 96%!

 

Of course, you never do it stupidly like the Bills did!

You NEVER call a TO, allowing the D to get ready and set!

 

Billicheat learned that about the year 2000.

McD obviously has a way to go!

  On 10/19/2021 at 1:37 PM, Greg S said:

I would have kicked the FG and gone to OT.

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1995, Old School!