Talley56 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Another bit of history that might actually be on the Bills' side, the 84 49ers went 15-1 and won the SuperBowl. Their only loss during the season: at home to the Steelers. Also, both times the Ravens won the SuperBowl, they lost at home to the Steelers earlier those seasons. In conclusion, maybe some teams just need a home lost the the Steelers before kicking it into gear and winning it all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ngbills Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Wait. Just researched that no team that won the first game of the season in a 17 week season has gone on to the Super Bowl. We still have a chance... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Just to clarify this silly thread... Stats do not matter because WE ARE GOING TO WIN THE WHOLE DAMN THING! period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBBills Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 33 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said: Yo! Sparky... Sloooow down. Both 2011 G'nts and 2020 Bucs season openers were on the road. They are 2 of the 9 teams the OP cited as winning SB and losing season Opener. Only 2002 Bucs lost @ home. Cherry picking trolls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
damj Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 7 hours ago, njbuff said: That was the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who lost to the New Orleans Saints in their season OPENER at home. Nine other teams have lost their season openers but went on to win the SB. All of those losses were on the road. Point is, history is not on the Bills side when it comes to going on and winning the SB after their opening home loss to Pittsburgh. What do you think? I think we should trade everyone and start over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 7 hours ago, njbuff said: Point is, history is not on the Bills side when it comes to going on and winning the SB after their opening home loss to Pittsburgh. What do you think? History is history. It isnt on anyone's side. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said: A more specific look at this question ... How many of the 55 Super Bowl champions had a home opener as opposed to an away opener? You'd guess around 27, 28, right? Wrong-o. Only 22. So now the pool of teams you're looking at is already down to 40% of all SB champs. The 66 Packers 67 Packers 73 Fins 74 Steelers 76 Raiders 85 Bears 87 Redskins 90 Giants 91 Redskins 92 Cowboys 94 Niners 97 Broncos 98 Broncos 99 Rams 02 Bucs p 04 Pats 05 Steelers 08 Steelers 09 Saints 12 Ravens 15 Broncos 18 Pats Those are the winners who had home openers. So, we played a team that looks to be a very good team this year. If Roethlisberger's arm wears away as the year goes on the way it did last year, things will look different, but that was a very good-looking team we just played. So out of the 22 SB winners that played home openers, how many played tomato cans? 67 Packers played the 5-7-2 Lions 73 Fins played the 5-9 Niners 74 Steelers played the 2-12 Colts 85 Bears played the 2-14 Bucs 05 Steelers played the 4-12 Titans 09 Saints played the 2-14 Lions 15 Broncos played the 5-11 Ravens Out of the 22 teams, seven played teams that just sucked. That leaves 15 left. How many of those 15 teams were mediocre, and thus quite a bit less difficult opponents than the Steelers? 87 Redskins played the 7-8 Eagles 92 Cowboys played the 9-7 Redskins 94 Niners played the 9-7 Raiders 98 Broncos played the 9-7 Pats 99 Rams played the 8-8 ravens 02 Bucs played the 9-7 Saints 08 Steelers played the 8-8 Texans Seven of the 15 were just mediocre. Leaving only eight SB teams that had opening day home games and played good teams. 66 Packers played the 9-5 Colts 76 Raiders played the 10-4 Steelers 90 Giants played the 10-6 Eagles 91 Redskins played the 12-4 Lions 97 Broncos played the 13-3 Chiefs 04 Pats played the 12-4 Colts 12 Ravens played the 10-6 Bengals a 18 Pats played the 11-5 Texans And while there are a few scary teams there, there are also a bunch of pretty good ones that would be respected but not frightening. So out of eight tough games how many would you expect a Super Bowl winner to lose, on average, at home? One? Two? Three? Four? In other words, the results are pretty much what you would expect. And all of those SB winners lost games. Specifically 2 (out of 14 that year), 1 (out of 14), 3, 2, 4, 2, 6, and 5 losses. What week they happened in doesn't much matter. And the odds of it happening on opening week at home are just about what you would expect. It happens. Super Bowl winners lose. Just not too many. This is the 🎤 drop for the thread IMHO I'm a fan of the Bills, but I'm not a fan of these "Uh-oh, Bills are in Trouble(trot out some obscure fact) thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AuntieEm Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 3 hours ago, Coach55 said: In the history of the NFL, every team that lost week 1 has failed to go undefeated for the season... And I'm willing to bet every team going forward will also fail to go undefeated for their seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 (edited) 4 hours ago, Just in Atlanta said: To those saying it doesn’t matter, clearly it does matter statistically. You have a 50/50 chance of winning your first game. And you have 52 Superbowls, of which only one team with a week 1 loss at home has won? I’d be curious if someone who didn’t get a C in Statistics could calculate the odds. You have a 50/50 chance of being on the road opening day. The schedule is random. If the Bills played the Jets instead of the Steelers then there would be no stupid stat to post. If I want to be a downer I can usually find a stat to justify my opinion if I dig deep enough. This is how stupid the stat is: In 1993 the Cowboys started 0-2 on their way to becoming Super Bowl champions. Since the 1st game was on the road & the 2nd straight loss was at home, the Cowboys don't qualify for the stat. Also, there have been 55 Super Bowls, so why are you using 52? Now considering the fact that the natural odds in any season (before accounting for talent differences) of a Super Bowl Championship is 1 in 32, the natural odds of 1) Playing at home opening week (50%) 2), Losing Opening Day(50%), and 3) winning the Super Bowl (3.125%), it's not that hard to get a 1 out of 55 result (1.82 %). In fact the natural odds of winning a Super Bowl after losing your home opener on opening day, or even winning the Super Bowl is 0.078% Now if you say the odds of getting to the Super Bowl is only 1 in 16 (6.25%) The result is 1)50% X 2) 50%X3)6.25% X4)50% (once you're in the game you have a 50/50 shot of wining or losing). That yields the same 0.078% or 1 in 128. So it's not surprising that a 1 in 128 stat would produce a 1 in 55 result. The gobbledygook of the prior paragraph just shows you how statistics can be manipulated to produce a result that supports just about any premise. The data posted in the OP is meaningless. Edited September 17, 2021 by Albany,n.y. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 8 hours ago, njbuff said: What do you think? I think attention seeking trolls starting BS threads should have a timeout 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1ManRaid Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: This is the 🎤 drop for the thread IMHO I'm a fan of the Bills, but I'm not a fan of these "Uh-oh, Bills are in Trouble(trot out some obscure fact) thread I also did some math showing that just with random chance, factoring in half of openers not being at home, the odds of facing a "playoff quality" team, the regular season win rate of champs, etc, you would expect to have had about 3 home opener losses from champs by now. The small sample size makes a difference of 1 or 2 games statistically insignificant and within fluke possibility. I went to post it but the thread was locked by the time I hit post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProcessTruster Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 53 minutes ago, Talley56 said: Another bit of history that might actually be on the Bills' side, the 84 49ers went 15-1 and won the SuperBowl. Their only loss during the season: at home to the Steelers. Also, both times the Ravens won the SuperBowl, they lost at home to the Steelers earlier those seasons. In conclusion, maybe some teams just need a home lost the the Steelers before kicking it into gear and winning it all. now there's a positive take. nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rock-A-Bye Beasley Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 I keep hearing from fellow Bills fans that losing to the Steelers might actually be a good thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: A more specific look at this question ... How many of the 55 Super Bowl champions had a home opener as opposed to an away opener? You'd guess around 27, 28, right? Wrong-o. Only 22. So now the pool of teams you're looking at is already down to 40% of all SB champs. The 66 Packers 67 Packers 73 Fins 74 Steelers 76 Raiders 85 Bears 87 Redskins 90 Giants 91 Redskins 92 Cowboys 94 Niners 97 Broncos 98 Broncos 99 Rams 02 Bucs p 04 Pats 05 Steelers 08 Steelers 09 Saints 12 Ravens 15 Broncos 18 Pats Those are the winners who had home openers. So, we played a team that looks to be a very good team this year. If Roethlisberger's arm wears away as the year goes on the way it did last year, things will look different, but that was a very good-looking team we just played. So out of the 22 SB winners that played home openers, how many played tomato cans? 67 Packers played the 5-7-2 Lions 73 Fins played the 5-9 Niners 74 Steelers played the 2-12 Colts 85 Bears played the 2-14 Bucs 05 Steelers played the 4-12 Titans 09 Saints played the 2-14 Lions 15 Broncos played the 5-11 Ravens Out of the 22 teams, seven played teams that just sucked. That leaves 15 left. How many of those 15 teams were mediocre, and thus quite a bit less difficult opponents than the Steelers? 87 Redskins played the 7-8 Eagles 92 Cowboys played the 9-7 Redskins 94 Niners played the 9-7 Raiders 98 Broncos played the 9-7 Pats 99 Rams played the 8-8 ravens 02 Bucs played the 9-7 Saints 08 Steelers played the 8-8 Texans Seven of the 15 were just mediocre. Leaving only eight SB teams that had opening day home games and played good teams. 66 Packers played the 9-5 Colts 76 Raiders played the 10-4 Steelers 90 Giants played the 10-6 Eagles 91 Redskins played the 12-4 Lions 97 Broncos played the 13-3 Chiefs 04 Pats played the 12-4 Colts 12 Ravens played the 10-6 Bengals a 18 Pats played the 11-5 Texans And while there are a few scary teams there, there are also a bunch of pretty good ones that would be respected but not frightening. So out of eight tough games how many would you expect a Super Bowl winner to lose, on average, at home? One? Two? Three? Four? In other words, the results are pretty much what you would expect. And all of those SB winners lost games. Specifically 2 (out of 14 that year), 1 (out of 14), 3, 2, 4, 2, 6, and 5 losses. What week they happened in doesn't much matter. And the odds of it happening on opening week at home are just about what you would expect. It happens. Super Bowl winners lose. Just not too many. Once again the NFL schedule makers trying to screw up the Bills Super Bowl chances by giving us a home game against a tough opponent on opening day knowing the odds would be against us winning the Super Bowl after one game. They knew right off the bat they would be reducing our chances to 40% or less. From now on the Bills need to start the season on the road & not be eliminated from a Super Bowl championship after week 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said: I keep hearing from fellow Bills fans that losing to the Steelers might actually be a good thing! I don't think losing is ever a good thing. I do think there's something to be said for the idea that if the schedule doles you weak opponents or "good matchups" early on, the coaches and players may get an unrealistic picture of the State of the Team and the changes they need to make. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybrew1 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 8 hours ago, njbuff said: That was the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who lost to the New Orleans Saints in their season OPENER at home. Nine other teams have lost their season openers but went on to win the SB. All of those losses were on the road. Point is, history is not on the Bills side when it comes to going on and winning the SB after their opening home loss to Pittsburgh. What do you think? I think the only thing that matters is who you lose to. I think we lost to a high quality opponent. Having said that, I did not predict the Bills to win the Super Bowl this year.... I predict we lose to the chefs again..... (sorry.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Shaw66 said: History is history. It isnt on anyone's side. Agreed. The only thing a team in this league can have on its side is the officiating crew. Not naming any names, mind you. 😇 Edited September 17, 2021 by Ridgewaycynic2013 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
without a drought Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 3 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said: Great, and I have an adenoidal voice! 😁 I'm thinking we're onto something here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjd1001 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 9 hours ago, streetkings01 said: I think it means nothing honestly. Super Bowls aren't won in week 1. agreed. It doesn't happen all that often...until it happens more often. If the Bills are a very good team/the best team, they are likely to win...if they aren't good they won't. the placement of games and who you play on the schedule/matchups is mostly random. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njbuff Posted September 17, 2021 Author Share Posted September 17, 2021 1 hour ago, jeremy2020 said: I think attention seeking trolls starting BS threads should have a timeout I don’t give a flying flip about seeking attention. I hardly start any threads. I’m just pointing out a fact, that’s all. Just because I’m pointing out a fact, I get attacked in here and basically being accused of being a troll and telling everybody the season is over. I never said the season was over by any means at all. But it’s all ok, you and others can continue to attack me as a troll because I brought something to your attention that makes you and other Bills fans angry. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts