Blainorama5 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 I don't think it's necessary to bring any more negative mojo to TBD with "facts" like this. <-- notice the quotes. We can generate enough of that all on our own thank you. 🤪 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakeFrommStateFarm Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 (edited) Brady also said he's playing until age 50. So that means no superbowls for any other team until 2029 Edited September 17, 2021 by JakeFrommStateFarm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jobot Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 I think it says more about scheduling, likeliness of a super bowl contender losing week-1 at home more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoHuddleKelly12 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 21 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said: It is so meta that it is Debbie Downer giving what essentially is a positive spin. An ambidextrous gif Donuts! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlCowlingsTaxiService Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 3 hours ago, TBBills said: You are actually wrong... Check your facts and stop trolling. I took one quick look and found more than one team to lose opener and win Super Bowl. Don't know where these trolls get there "facts" from, but being wrong and posting it as if it's fact is a HUGE problem with certain people on this site. Quickly Giants 2011 lost week 1 and won the Super Bowl. Seeing that I found that quickly as my first search I can bet many more did this also. Also the 2020 BUCS lost first game and went on to win the Super Bowl.... This is such bad research, trolling research. Might want to try reading the OP again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Dear Audacy/Entercom/WGR I would like to apply for a position on the 'Nightcap' program on WGR radio. I am very inciteful. Yours truly, OP 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
without a drought Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said: Dear Audacy/Entercom/WGR I would like to apply for a position on the 'Nightcap' program on WGR radio. I am very inciteful. Yours truly, OP How are you with hot take rants? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 (edited) A more specific look at this question ... How many of the 55 Super Bowl champions had a home opener as opposed to an away opener? You'd guess around 27, 28, right? Wrong-o. Only 22. So now the pool of teams you're looking at is already down to 40% of all SB champs. The 66 Packers 67 Packers 73 Fins 74 Steelers 76 Raiders 85 Bears 87 Redskins 90 Giants 91 Redskins 92 Cowboys 94 Niners 97 Broncos 98 Broncos 99 Rams 02 Bucs p 04 Pats 05 Steelers 08 Steelers 09 Saints 12 Ravens 15 Broncos 18 Pats Those are the winners who had home openers. So, we played a team that looks to be a very good team this year. If Roethlisberger's arm wears away as the year goes on the way it did last year, things will look different, but that was a very good-looking team we just played. So out of the 22 SB winners that played home openers, how many played tomato cans? 67 Packers played the 5-7-2 Lions 73 Fins played the 5-9 Niners 74 Steelers played the 2-12 Colts 85 Bears played the 2-14 Bucs 05 Steelers played the 4-12 Titans 09 Saints played the 2-14 Lions 15 Broncos played the 5-11 Ravens Out of the 22 teams, seven played teams that just sucked. That leaves 15 left. How many of those 15 teams were mediocre, and thus quite a bit less difficult opponents than the Steelers? 87 Redskins played the 7-8 Eagles 92 Cowboys played the 9-7 Redskins 94 Niners played the 9-7 Raiders 98 Broncos played the 9-7 Pats 99 Rams played the 8-8 ravens 02 Bucs played the 9-7 Saints 08 Steelers played the 8-8 Texans Seven of the 15 were just mediocre. Leaving only eight SB teams that had opening day home games and played good teams. 66 Packers played the 9-5 Colts 76 Raiders played the 10-4 Steelers 90 Giants played the 10-6 Eagles 91 Redskins played the 12-4 Lions 97 Broncos played the 13-3 Chiefs 04 Pats played the 12-4 Colts 12 Ravens played the 10-6 Bengals a 18 Pats played the 11-5 Texans And while there are a few scary teams there, there are also a bunch of pretty good ones that would be respected but not frightening. So out of eight tough games how many would you expect a Super Bowl winner to lose, on average, at home? One? Two? Three? Four? In other words, the results are pretty much what you would expect. And all of those SB winners lost games. Specifically 2 (out of 14 that year), 1 (out of 14), 3, 2, 4, 2, 6, and 5 losses. What week they happened in doesn't much matter. And the odds of it happening on opening week at home are just about what you would expect. It happens. Super Bowl winners lose. Just not too many. Edited September 17, 2021 by Thurman#1 1 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: A more specific look at this question ... How many of the 55 Super Bowl champions had a home opener as opposed to an away opener? You'd guess around 27, 28, right? Wrong-o. Only 22. So now the pool of teams you're looking at is already down to 40% of all SB champs. The 66 Packers 67 Packers 73 Fins 74 Steelers 76 Raiders 85 Bears 87 Redskins 90 Giants 91 Redskins 92 Cowboys 94 Niners 97 Broncos 98 Broncos 99 Rams 02 Bucs p 04 Pats 05 Steelers 08 Steelers 09 Saints 12 Ravens 15 Broncos 18 Pats Those are the winners who had home openers. So, we played a team that looks to be a very good team this year. If Roethlisberger's arm wears away as the year goes on the way it did last year, things will look different, but that was a very good-looking team we just played. So out of the 22 SB winners that played home openers, how many played tomato cans? 67 Packers played the 5-7-2 Lions 73 Fins played the 5-9 Niners 74 Steelers played the 2-12 Colts 85 Bears played the 2-14 Bucs 05 Steelers played the 4-12 Titans 09 Saints played the 2-14 Lions 15 Broncos played the 5-11 Ravens Out of the 22 teams, seven played teams that just sucked. That leaves 15 left. How many of those 15 teams were mediocre, and thus quite a bit less difficult opponents than the Steelers? 87 Redskins played the 7-8 Eagles 92 Cowboys played the 9-7 Redskins 94 Niners played the 9-7 Raiders 98 Broncos played the 9-7 Pats 99 Rams played the 8-8 ravens 02 Bucs played the 9-7 Saints 08 Steelers played the 8-8 Texans Seven of the 15 were just mediocre. Leaving only eight SB teams that had opening day home games and played good teams. 66 Packers played the 9-5 Colts 76 Raiders played the 10-4 Steelers 90 Giants played the 10-6 Eagles 91 Redskins played the 12-4 Lions 97 Broncos played the 13-3 Chiefs 04 Pats played the 12-4 Colts 12 Ravens played the 10-6 Bengals a 18 Pats played the 11-5 Texans And while there are a few scary teams there, there are also a bunch of pretty good ones that would be respected but not frightening. So out of eight tough games how many would you expect a Super Bowl winner to lose, on average, at home? One? Two? Three? Four? In other words, the results are pretty much what you would respect. And all of those SB winners lost games. Specifically 2 (out of 14 that year), 1 (out of 14), 3, 2, 4, 2, 6, and 5 losses. What week they happened in doesn't much matter. And the odds of it happening on opening week at home are just about what you would expect. It happens. Super Bowl winners lose. Just not too many. I was going to come and talk about the small sample size and how we can't really get a statistically significant read on the situation. You did an excellent job explaining it. In statistics, you need many data points to come to conclusions. 50 or so data points is not a high sample size, especially when every one of those data points has significant caveats to consider, like strength of opponent, weather conditions, injuries, offensive and defensive schemes, etc. They really can't be effectively compared to one another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsShredder83 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 6 hours ago, njbuff said: That was the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who lost to the New Orleans Saints in their season OPENER at home. Nine other teams have lost their season openers but went on to win the SB. All of those losses were on the road. Point is, history is not on the Bills side when it comes to going on and winning the SB after their opening home loss to Pittsburgh. What do you think? If you seek out a way to ruin your day, you can 100% find it lol good grief bro I hope you didn't spend any time looking for this 😆😆 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
streetkings01 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 4 hours ago, ScottLaw said: Their lackluster approach to the off-season told me they weren’t really all in on getting to the SB this year…. Too many holes they ignored….. I expect playoffs but wouldn’t be surprised by a first round exit. Browns or Chiefs represent the AFC in the SB. Browns lost to the Chiefs……0-1 teams don’t make Super Bowls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, without a drought said: How are you with hot take rants? Great, and I have an adenoidal voice! 😁 Edited September 17, 2021 by Ridgewaycynic2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilthyBeast Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 6 hours ago, njbuff said: That was the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who lost to the New Orleans Saints in their season OPENER at home. Nine other teams have lost their season openers but went on to win the SB. All of those losses were on the road. Point is, history is not on the Bills side when it comes to going on and winning the SB after their opening home loss to Pittsburgh. What do you think? I think stats like this matter unfortunately and you can't ignore historical context. Had this game been on the road I don't think there would be as much concern but again, this was a home game and contenders are expected to find a way to win even if they struggle. Bigger issue is still how bad this team was throughout the game including completely collapsing in the 2nd half after having a 10 point lead and allowing 20 straight points by the Steelers. The only way this game might not look so bad in hindsight is if the Bills go on to win something like 10 straight and look on par or better than they did last year and the Steelers end up being an elite AFC team. But I don't think the latter is going to be true since their offense is still a big issue (another head scratcher as to how we lost this game). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaBillsJunkie Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 I think it means the Bills have a lot of work to do to change this stat. The stat means something. The best teams win at home, especially in an opening game. Protect your turf. Every coach preaches this. Playoff teams rarely lose at home. Most are 6-2, 7-1, a few 6 seeds may go 5-3. (in the 16 game format) That doesn't leave a large margin of error for the rest of the home games. That means playing winning or .500 ball on the road can usually get you in. I think the other reason this stat resonates is the championship game. You start dumping home games you are going to be a 2,3,4 seed if you are one of the elite teams in the conference. If you are good, you are looking at a 5-6 seed and the road gets even tougher to the SB. That said, this week is huge. If the Bills don't rebound, it's going to be an uphill battle the rest of the way. I have confidence they will figure it out and take a road victory from the Fish. GO BILLS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Actually, history is on Bills side. Odds are, there has to be another team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HamSandwhich Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 So you’re saying it’s been done before? Great! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 5 hours ago, TBBills said: You are actually wrong... Check your facts and stop trolling. I took one quick look and found more than one team to lose opener and win Super Bowl. Don't know where these trolls get there "facts" from, but being wrong and posting it as if it's fact is a HUGE problem with certain people on this site. Quickly Giants 2011 lost week 1 and won the Super Bowl. Seeing that I found that quickly as my first search I can bet many more did this also. Also the 2020 BUCS lost first game and went on to win the Super Bowl.... This is such bad research, trolling research. Yo! Sparky... Sloooow down. Both 2011 G'nts and 2020 Bucs season openers were on the road. They are 2 of the 9 teams the OP cited as winning SB and losing season Opener. Only 2002 Bucs lost @ home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Well geez no pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ngbills Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Dang so Bills, Falcons, Lions, Titans, Colts, WFT, Pats, and Giants all out of the race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 24 minutes ago, TampaBillsJunkie said: I think it means the Bills have a lot of work to do to change this stat. The stat means something. The best teams win at home, especially in an opening game. Protect your turf. Every coach preaches this. Playoff teams rarely lose at home. Most are 6-2, 7-1, a few 6 seeds may go 5-3. (in the 16 game format) That doesn't leave a large margin of error for the rest of the home games. That means playing winning or .500 ball on the road can usually get you in. I think the other reason this stat resonates is the championship game. You start dumping home games you are going to be a 2,3,4 seed if you are one of the elite teams in the conference. If you are good, you are looking at a 5-6 seed and the road gets even tougher to the SB. That said, this week is huge. If the Bills don't rebound, it's going to be an uphill battle the rest of the way. I have confidence they will figure it out and take a road victory from the Fish. GO BILLS! It really does not mean anything. If asked how many of the 22 SB teams who played at home in Week 1 had lost in that week, you'd probably guess two, three or maybe four. Probably two or three. This is a seriously unsurprising stat. You're right that we have to change a stat set by that game. That stat, the one we have to change, is our 0-1 record. We'll have a chance to do that in two days. It's one loss, against an excellent team. While not thrilling, it's not a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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