Calling it now: Devin will be a 1000 yard back this year

[Motorin']

On 9/4/2021 at 11:54 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Next time an American pronounces things correctly will be a first time. 

 

Hey, do you know my friends Al, Lou & Mini um?

[FilthyBeast]

I think Motor will have a better season but the only way I see that type of output is if we crush a lot of teams this year and he's doing it in garbage time to run out the clock.

 

Because I still this team is going to be pass happy most weeks especially if teams can't stop us.

[mjd1001]

I really don't think that is much of a 'call', as with 17 games.

 

He is averaging 52+ yard rushing per game played for the last 2 years. If he stays healthy and you just project that out...that gets you to almost 900 yards.  Just ONE or two big runs across the entire season, or a slight injury to anyone else in the RB room gets him there (not to mention maybe a little less running by Allen.)

 

I'm not saying it IS going to happen, but I'd put odds at close to 50-50, especially with the added game this year.

Edited September 7, 2021 by mjd1001

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I really don't think that is much of a 'call', as with 17 games.

 

He is averaging 52+ yard rushing per game played for the last 2 years. If he stays healthy and you just project that out...that gets you to almost 900 yards.  Just ONE or two big runs across the entire season, or a slight injury to anyone else in the RB room gets him there (not to mention maybe a little less running by Allen.)

 

I'm not saying it IS going to happen, but I'd put odds at close to 50-50, especially with the added game this year.

 

Well there are only two choices...he will hit 1000, or he wont...so yeah, guess that makes it a 50-50 call haha.  

 

All kidding aside, I don't think its that bold of a call either, however, it appears to be to most as the vast majority seem to disagree he will eclipse 1000 yards.  And its a fair take for them given how much we throw and having other RB's in the mix.  But to me, Devin is the best RB on the roster and will out touch Moss by a lot more than people think, making 1000 not only obtainable, but likely in my mind.  

[Patrick Duffy]

53 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Looks like I am not the only one on the Singletary train this year for a bounce back year and more of a lead role than some think...

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2021/09/07/espn-devin-singletary-buffalo-bills-zack-moss/

We need him to, along with better OL run blocking. Could see Moss improve also in his 2nd year. 

[hondo in seattle]

Reading about his off-season training program, I agree Motor will be better this year.

 

But Daboll is an interesting play caller.  He doesn't give a damn about balance.   He know he's got a great QB and excellent WRs.  He's happy to use those weapons all game long.

 

And when Daboll does dial up a run, it might not be to Singletary.   He's going to share the rock with Moss and others.   

 

It's hard for me to envision Motor rushing for a thousand in the Daboll-Allen aerial show.

 

Edited September 14, 2021 by hondo in seattle

[Beast]

2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Reading about his off-season training program, I agree Motor will be better this year.

 

But Cahill is an interesting play caller.  He doesn't give a damn about balance.   He know he's got a great QB and excellent WRs.  He's happy to use those weapons all game long.

 

And when Daboll does dial up a run, it might not be to Singletary.   He's going to share the rock with Moss and others.   

 

It's hard for me to envision Motor rushing for a thousand in the Daboll-Allen aerial show.

 

 

After watching last nights game and also knowing how the Bills prefer to play, this is now  more than ever a passing league. 1000 yard rushers will soon be extinct outside of Baltimore.

[frostbitmic]

I'm pretty sure that Allen will still lead this team in carries and yards, I'd be surprised if Singletary and Moss combined for 15 carries a game and the hot hand will get the most carries at any given time. Breida, I think will take over Yeldon's role on the weekly inactive list.

[ColoradoBills]

28 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

I'm pretty sure that Allen will still lead this team in carries and yards, I'd be surprised if Singletary and Moss combined for 15 carries a game and the hot hand will get the most carries at any given time. Breida, I think will take over Yeldon's role on the weekly inactive list.

 

Singletary and Moss both had more carries and yards last year than Josh.  I also expect him to run a little less than last year.

His arm is way more devastating than his legs.

[transplantbillsfan]

I hope so.  I'm the idiot who drafted him at RB in the 5th round.  He and Mostert are my 2 starting RBs 

[ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin]

He could. 1k is only 58 yards per game or the equivalent of 10-14 carries over 17 games. I have reviewed a bunch of games and both he and Moss had a lot of chunk plays where things looked really good, but they were peppered between a lot of 0-2 yd gains. Some of that is blocking.

 

I do think people underestimate the importance of a blocking RB in a pass first offense.

Zack Moss showed out as the far better blocker. I think this is a big reason why he gained a 50-50 share with Singletary by season end.

 

Neither is exceptional as a receiver. I can see 15 or so carries per game for the RBs, but not much more. Enough to take advantage of a defensive front, or to switch things up and threaten balance. If Singletary gets 10 or so a game he has a shot.

[Alphadawg7]

Week 1 in the books...

 

Devin on pace for over 1224 yards after 11 carries and 72 yards rushing, and Moss was a healthy scratch.  

 

While I don't expect Devin to continue to average 6.6 ypc, I do expect his 11 carries to rise next week given he was one the bright spots of the offense Sunday.  Daboll gave him praise too in his presser that he had a strong game and a strong camp.  

 

So, I am still feeling confident about this prediction with the first week in the books.  

[Niagara Dude]

50 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Week 1 in the books...

 

Devin on pace for over 1224 yards after 11 carries and 72 yards rushing, and Moss was a healthy scratch.  

 

While I don't expect Devin to continue to average 6.6 ypc, I do expect his 11 carries to rise next week given he was one the bright spots of the offense Sunday.  Daboll gave him praise too in his presser that he had a strong game and a strong camp.  

 

So, I am still feeling confident about this prediction with the first week in the books.  

I am calling it,  he won't be the starting RB next season and getting 1000 yards over 17 games is not a big deal. End of the day we need more speed and i just don't see it with him.  Hope he proves me wrong,

 

 

 

 

[TheFunPolice]

I guess I'm missing something, because when I see Singletary this season I see a quicker guy with some good burst who could and should be able to make some plays.

 

I'm not saying he should be a focus of the offense, but how about some screens? Draws? A few more straight up runs?

 

Last game we simplified the game for the Steelers: just meet at the QB. No worries about draws or screens. 

 

I'm a huge fan of Singletary, and I think he has shown some good things in the preseason and game 1 this year. He looks faster to me, and has the same agility. 

[Lv-Bills]

11 minutes ago, Niagara Dude said:

I am calling it,  he won't be the starting RB next season and getting 1000 yards over 17 games is not a big deal. End of the day we need more speed and i just don't see it with him.  Hope he proves me wrong,

 

 

 

 

Total agreement here on one thing.....1000 isn't a big deal.  It's 58 yards per game.  I'm just more worried that Daboll starts having an adjustment ready for when things aren't going well.  Our offense has been pretty much shut down their last three games.  I'm not scared yet, but it's becoming worrisome.  I also don't mind if we pass a lot, but my god, at some point we have to be able to run the ball a bit, even when the other team is suspecting us to do so.  It's a mindset from the coaching staff and the guys up front.  We need to run it some.  And what Singletary did Sunday, with basically the one good series, isn't running the ball with a mindset to get it done.  I think Singletary is fine for this team.  It was simply what the Steelers decided to give us at that point in the game.  I think the OC needs to treat the RB's as though they are capable of playing ball in the NFL and let them go a bit more.  

 

Come on Daboll, we need you now.  Show some diversity in that playbook, and create a tad more balance.

Edited September 14, 2021 by Lv-Bills

[TheFunPolice]

the Singletary argument is totally circular:

 

Singletary can't make plays, he's too slow. 

Singletary averages 6.5 YPC

Well, he caught the defense off guard.

Singletary can't make plays, he's too slow. 

 

Isn't the point to catch the defense? Gash them a few times so they have to think twice about just rushing the QB every play? 

 

 

[Mat68]

I think its doable.  Like 60 yards a game average and an extra game.  After last week I expect more balance and more 21 personal.   I dont expect 3 yards and a cloud of dust football.  Use more traditional sets and use tempo and spread to keep defense guessing.

 

 Like anything else in football all off 1 thing becomes easy for the defense to handle.  The up tempo is like Allens arm strength. The right time its a game changer.  All the time limits the offense.

[Niagara Dude]

28 minutes ago, Lv-Bills said:

Total agreement here on one thing.....1000 isn't a big deal.  It's 58 yards per game.  I'm just more worried that Daboll starts having an adjustment ready for when things aren't going well.  Our offense has been pretty much shut down their last three games.  I'm not scared yet, but it's becoming worrisome.  I also don't mind if we pass a lot, but my god, at some point we have to be able to run the ball a bit, even when the other team is suspecting us to do so.  It's a mindset from the coaching staff and the guys up front.  We need to run it some.  And what Singletary did Sunday, with basically the one good series, isn't running the ball with a mindset to get it done.  I think Singletary is fine for this team.  It was simply what the Steelers decided to give us at that point in the game.  I think the OC needs to treat the RB's as though they are capable of playing ball in the NFL and let them go a bit more.  

 

Come on Daboll, we need you now.  Show some diversity in that playbook, and create a tad more balance.

I think he is a decent RB but we need a more explosive RB if we want to be a superbowl contender.  We need someone who can make big plays both running and catching the ball out of the backfield and that is not him.  It was problem last season and Beane even admitted as much after the KC game. The guy does not have burst to the line and is not someone you can count on to make big catches.  My predicition is if he remains healthy he starts every game and will not be an answer but more of a problem in the playoffs.  They will then invest a high pick into more explosive big play back both running & receiving. 

32 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

the Singletary argument is totally circular:

 

Singletary can't make plays, he's too slow. 

Singletary averages 6.5 YPC

Well, he caught the defense off guard.

Singletary can't make plays, he's too slow. 

 

Isn't the point to catch the defense? Gash them a few times so they have to think twice about just rushing the QB every play? 

 

 

He also fumbled twice on Sunday and 4.65 forty is slow,  had the biggest drop of that KC playoff game on 3rd down. 

[BillMafia716ix]

No he won’t Daboll won’t give him the touches 

[Bubba Gump]

Most of his yards on Sunday came on the last drive when Pitt was playing for the pass.

[Alphadawg7]

34 minutes ago, Bubba Gump said:

Most of his yards on Sunday came on the last drive when Pitt was playing for the pass.

 

Pitt was mostly playing for the pass the whole game.  So why does this matter?  Not only did we get those yards on that drive, it was a critical drive of the game and he came up big with them.

 

Devin also had single digit carries before that drive and also converted some first downs for us.  Its not his fault he was being under used during the game.  

 

So not sure why you feel like this some how negates his performance when he ran well not only all preseason but in week 1.  And if you look at most RB's, they get a large chunk of their weekly production off a few longer runs.  I just dont understand why this board is so hell bent on discrediting Devins production all the time.  He is a career 4.8 YPC RB, just averaged over 6 ypc in the opener after an impressive camp and preseason...yet here people are, trying to devalue his value on the field for some reason.  

 

Even Daboll said he had a strong game and offseason in his presser, and I am willing to bet that Devin is even more involved next week.  I mean they have so much confidence in Devin, Moss was a healthy scratch.  

[Bubba Gump]

I agree he was very under used. They went 5 wide most of the game, which was ridiculous. They should've ran him more. I'm just saying Pitt was in prevent leaving the line wide open for him to get those chunk plays at the end. He's definitely quicker with his cuts this year. I just don't think Daboll will give him the chance to gain 1,000 yds.

[Alphadawg7]

Devin says hi 😎

[Alphadawg7]

6.4 YPC and on pace for 1309 yards 😎

 

And a 45 yard TD run already too.  
 

Trending the right direction.  

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

6.4 YPC and on pace for 1309 yards 😎

 

And a 45 yard TD run already too.  
 

Trending the right direction.  

He's gotta stop the fumbling. Three fumbles in two games (and just 29 touches) isn't really acceptable. 

Edited September 21, 2021 by dave mcbride

[LeGOATski]

With teams playing 2 deep, I wouldn't mind seeing more passes to Motor in the flat. Let the man work. Just pray he holds onto the ball.

 

Get Josh into a rhythm and then watch those deep opportunities open up.

[YattaOkasan]

9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

He's gotta stop the fumbling. Three fumbles in two games isn't really acceptable. 

Agree but in the Miami game the fumble outbounds on the sideline on that play doesnt present much risk to me.  Also there was a face mask penalty on that play, not sure how much it mattered to the fumble.

 

EDIT: all his fumbles are out of bounds.  is this a concern.  hes caring the ball in the correct hand.  It doesnt seem to be much risk to me at all.

Edited September 21, 2021 by YattaOkasan

[LeGOATski]

10 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Agree but in the Miami game the fumble outbounds on the sideline on that play doesnt present much risk to me.  Also there was a face mask penalty on that play, not sure how much it mattered to the fumble.

 

EDIT: all his fumbles are out of bounds.  is this a concern.  hes caring the ball in the correct hand.  It doesnt seem to be much risk to me at all.

It's fortunate. I watch every game and come away feeling that the Bills RBs drop the ball too much.

[YattaOkasan]

4 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

It's fortunate. I watch every game and come away feeling that the Bills RBs drop the ball too much.

I guess but I dont really consider them fumbles.  There is no risk.  Theres some good stats about how often youre expected to recover a fumble and its low.  Being near the boundary seems like it would greatly increase the chance of recover (one reason why I was ok with Allens flip to Knox in Houston).  I wonder if/how thats accounted for in that stat.

Edited September 21, 2021 by YattaOkasan

[Buffalo716]

16 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Agree but in the Miami game the fumble outbounds on the sideline on that play doesnt present much risk to me.  Also there was a face mask penalty on that play, not sure how much it mattered to the fumble.

 

EDIT: all his fumbles are out of bounds.  is this a concern.  hes caring the ball in the correct hand.  It doesnt seem to be much risk to me at all.

Absolutely is a concern

 

A fumble is a fumble.. he's just getting lucky he's fumbling on the sidelines right now

 

Eventually it will be in the middle of the field 

 

He needs to tuck it away

 

 

 

[YattaOkasan]

Just now, Buffalo716 said:

Absolutely is a concern

 

A fumble is a fumble.. he's just getting lucky he's fumbling on the sidelines right now

 

Eventually it will be in the middle of the field 

 

He needs to tuck it away

 

 

 

I guess.  But I think football is a situational game and as such a fumble on the boundary seems very different situationally than one even 5 yards away.  

[LeGOATski]

1 minute ago, YattaOkasan said:

I guess but I dont really consider them fumbles.  There is no risk.  Theres some good stats about how often youre expected to recover a fumble and its low.  Being near the boundary seems like it would greatly increase that.  I wonder if/how thats accounted for in that stat.

I don't think he has control over when he fumbles. Yes, it's more fortunate to fumble out of bounds.

[Buffalo716]

Just now, YattaOkasan said:

I guess.  But I think football is a situational game and as such a fumble on the boundary seems very different situationally than one even 5 yards away.  

If you break it down situationally sure.. but fumbling is a random occurrence in the NFL

 

So the location of fumbles is also random.. he's getting lucky he's fumbling on the sideline 

 

And his touch per fumble ratio is very high.. it's something he can clean up

[YattaOkasan]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

If you break it down situationally sure.. but fumbling is a random occurrence in the NFL

 

So the location of fumbles is also random.. he's getting lucky he's fumbling on the sideline 

 

And his touch per fumble ratio is very high.. it's something he can clean up

It is high now.  But it seems good prior to this year right?  I got 1.6% prior to this year.

 

More context seems that 1.6% is not good.  with this year it would be worse.  Digging into fumbles lost.  

 

Not sure I agree fumbles on the field are random.  Is there a histogram that shows this? 

Edited September 21, 2021 by YattaOkasan

[Alphadawg7]

30 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

He's gotta stop the fumbling. Three fumbles in two games (and just 29 touches) isn't really acceptable. 

Im not worried, he’s never had a fumbling problem before.  And all of those were as he was going out of bounds and prob just wasn’t holding it tight at that point for that reason

Edited September 21, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

It is high now.  But it seems good prior to this year right?  I got 1.6% prior to this year.

Well rn is all that matters .. 

 

He can def have better ball security rn

[YattaOkasan]

1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

Well rn is all that matters .. 

 

He can def have better ball security rn

I got 1 fumble loss in his career (I believe 2019 steelers game with watt getting him good, iirc).  Looking up fumble loss rate.  

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, YattaOkasan said:

I got 1 fumble loss in his career (I believe 2019 steelers game with watt getting him good, iirc).  Looking up fumble loss rate.  

Losing fumbles or recovering them is a random thing again.. fumbling is random 

 

The only thing you can control is when you do cough it up 

 

Fact is he has coughed it up three times this year in 2 games... He can hold on to it better

[LeGOATski]

10 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

It is high now.  But it seems good prior to this year right?  I got 1.6% prior to this year.

 

More context seems that 1.6% is not good.  with this year it would be worse.  Digging into fumbles lost.  

 

Not sure I agree fumbles on the field are random.  Is there a histogram that shows this? 

[YattaOkasan]

Just now, Buffalo716 said:

Losing fumbles or recovering them is a random thing again.. fumbling is random 

 

The only thing you can control is when you do cough it up 

 

Fact is he has coughed it up three times this year in 2 games... He can hold on to it better

1 FL in 8 fumbles is sorta not random.  If its 50/50 for a recovery (I think odds are worse, but having trouble finding data) then i get a p factor 0.04.  Thats statistically significant (despite a small data set of 8).  So his fumble loss rate is not necessarily random.

1 minute ago, LeGOATski said:

Thats amazing.  First glance i threw up because of the song.  But the histogrm was great.