The Athletic: Bills aren’t just trying to avoid 3rd & long, they are trying to avoid 3rd down altogether

[HardyBoy]

8 hours ago, Logic said:

This article by Sheil Kapadia is excellent all the way through.

I try to read every single article that gets published about the Bills, and this still contained a bunch of stuff I hadn't read elsewhere.

The quotes by Beane about the way he'll build the team moving forward (doesn't want to front-load contracts or kick the can down the road, will be looking to add veterans that are poor fits on their current team but could help the Bills) and by McDermott about embracing pass-happy offense ("we're gonna try to stay ahead of the league") were awesome.

I also found it very interesting, and had not previously heard, that Beane and Allen golfed together in Buffalo this offseason and informally talked contract to get a feel for what each side was looking for, resulting in the six-year deal, which is somewhere between Mahomes' mega-long term deal and Watson/Dak/Wentz/Goff's 4-year deals.

Great article.

You should check out the Beane interview on the Pat Mcafee show. He said something similar there too, and was super interesting.  
 

He talked about golfing with Allen in that interview as well. 

[eball]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You see what that milk of amnesia is doing to you?   

<snip>

 

 

Wow, I’ve really taken up residence in that inflated head of yours, huh? 🤣

[BADOLBILZ]

11 minutes ago, eball said:

Wow, I’ve really taken up residence in that inflated head of yours, huh? 🤣

 

 

Because you are like a brother to me, eebs........a drunken, ne'r-do-well brother who needs tough love.

[BillsPride12]

6 hours ago, cgang said:

Bills w/ lowest punt attempts per game last season:  https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/punt-attempts-per-game.

 

Time for a repeat!

We've come a long ways since the days of our Punter being the MVP of our team!

[Patrick Duffy]

26 minutes ago, BillsPride12 said:

We've come a long ways since the days of our Punter being the MVP of our team!

Lol, was sad  situation when you could say , "Thunder Foot Moorman is best Punter in the league also good and fast enough he could take a fake punt for a score" And then Sean Taylor made him look like the Punter he was

Edited August 19, 2021 by Sheneneh Jenkins

[JohnRVA]

It's a good article but what struck me is that it was basically the same points that Warren Sharp made on the Bill Simmons and Ringer NFL podcasts last year during the season. So although it is a good article, I didn't feel like it was anything new because I had heard that other content. That said, it's been a while since those podcasts and I still enjoyed it.

[Richard Noggin]

8 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

There were years I felt like the Patriots literally designed their whole offense around plays that were to get 6-7 yards and that’s what they did every down. 

I don't disagree, but...would you care to elaborate upon how that compares/contrasts/relates to the topic of THIS thread? Easy for me to see how it might relate, but I guess I'd like to know how the poster who brought it up sees it. Thanks.

 

 

[Marv's Neighbor]

That's all great BUT what I want to see, is us keeping opponents from converting their 3rd & long! 

[without a drought]

6 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Josh Allen has been pretty good on 3rd down....really good actually.

 

but wouldnt it be nice if we could just run for the 1st down on 3rd and 2?

Not really,  I'm good with the way things are.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

This is nice. But remember, Allen is also the best 3rd and long QB in the league. The offense should be fine either way with #17.

 

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230202-allen-once-again-leading-the-league-in-3rd-and-10/

 

 

 

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

11 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

In years past when it was third and long I would assume it would be a greater than 90% chance that the Bills would punt. With Josh in 2020 I was pretty confident the offense would have at least a solid 40% chance to keep the ball (not sure on the actual percentages of the teams third down success but that's just what it felt like to me). I almost never feel like the team is out on a possession. 

 

Your gut feeling is right. Allen converted for first downs on 40.7% of his 3rd and long situations last year. Good for second best in the league last year. Rodgers and Mahomes had 33% and 25% conversion rates respectively and much lower passer ratings, 89 and 86 respectively to Allen's 106 on 3rd and 10+. 

[The Red King]

Will they stay aggressive though?

 

By the end of last season I saw a well-developed meat grinder, one that absolutely mulched a playoff-hopeful Dolphins team on Week 17.

 

That killer attitude seemed to fade the next week.  This was no longer a team administering wedgies and taking lunch money.  They seemed nervous, cautious, and that persisted.  We all remembered McD going for field goals in the Championship game when we desperately needed TDs.

 

It was the same when the Bills played the Chiefs earlier in the season.  They went from playing all-out, damn the risks, we're going to beat you down football and instead played to just keep pace and try and squeak out a win at the end.

 

All-out war is this team's strength.  I want to see the no-fear, impose their will on others attitude that was on display the end of the season.

[Patrick Duffy]

10 minutes ago, The Red King said:

Will they stay aggressive though?

 

By the end of last season I saw a well-developed meat grinder, one that absolutely mulched a playoff-hopeful Dolphins team on Week 17.

 

That killer attitude seemed to fade the next week.  This was no longer a team administering wedgies and taking lunch money.  They seemed nervous, cautious, and that persisted.  We all remembered McD going for field goals in the Championship game when we desperately needed TDs

Well the next week after Fins was playoffs so it's expected to be tougher games. Also it's not too often a team will drop a 50 burger like they did to Miami on another team in a playoff game. Also was 1st home playoff game in forever, so could possibly have felt more pressure than normal.

 

I do agree though there were questionable play calls etc a few times it seemed. In any event I feel they will be even better than last season on offense and defense. I get a feeling this may very well be our year and believe they have a better chance than last season to get to the Super Bowl this time. 

[Richard Noggin]

46 minutes ago, The Red King said:

Will they stay aggressive though?

 

By the end of last season I saw a well-developed meat grinder, one that absolutely mulched a playoff-hopeful Dolphins team on Week 17.

 

That killer attitude seemed to fade the next week.  This was no longer a team administering wedgies and taking lunch money.  They seemed nervous, cautious, and that persisted.  We all remembered McD going for field goals in the Championship game when we desperately needed TDs.

 

It was the same when the Bills played the Chiefs earlier in the season.  They went from playing all-out, damn the risks, we're going to beat you down football and instead played to just keep pace and try and squeak out a win at the end.

 

All-out war is this team's strength.  I want to see the no-fear, impose their will on others attitude that was on display the end of the season.

There were, of course, mitigating factors in the Chiefs games you cite. Injuries no doubt played a part. But I agree that the team overall seemed less aggressive and less effective/composed. Coaches and players. 

 

Interestingly, I think Spagnuolo and the Chiefs D was actually daring the Bills offense to be LESS "all-out, damn the risks." They knew the Bills strength and challenged them to adapt. (Much like the Bills tried to do in the first game on defense against the KC offense...and we all know how that turned out: KC was able to switch gears and take what was given on the ground. Repeatedly.)

 

In the AFCCG, if Allen had been able to slow down, get his protections right, and take the hot reads and underneath stuff, it might have been a different game. Who knows what Daboll wanted him to do...

[BillsFan619]

16 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Wow, what a great philosophy. That thought process definitely gives us room for error (not that I think we’ll need it to often).

 

I love the confidence. Thanks for sharing!

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

6 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

I don't disagree, but...would you care to elaborate upon how that compares/contrasts/relates to the topic of THIS thread? Easy for me to see how it might relate, but I guess I'd like to know how the poster who brought it up sees it. Thanks.

 

 

Right so if you design every play to hit 6 or 7 yards, you avoid lots of third downs- which is what the thread topic is.

[eball]

5 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

In the AFCCG, if Allen had been able to slow down, get his protections right, and take the hot reads and underneath stuff, it might have been a different game. Who knows what Daboll wanted him to do...

 

The Bills moved up and down the field.  They got stalled in the red zone.  And yes, McD got conservative calling for FGs when they needed TDs.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

20 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

 

 

If you try to get a first down on every down, you only have to succeed 1/3 of the time!

"60% of the time, it works every  time." 

[BuffaloBill]

22 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

They are gunning for a Super Bowl AND a Grey Cup!

 

Can they also take the Stanley cup?? A trifecta…..

[Scott7975]

On 8/18/2021 at 11:58 AM, Logic said:

 

 

Just some other bits and pieces I enjoyed from the article. It's articles like this that make me more than happy to pay for The Athletic.

 

You mean reporters actually coming up with something and doing research about it instead of just throwing some whinefest opinion piece?

[PromoTheRobot]

4 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

Can they also take the Stanley cup?? A trifecta…..

 

Well they have the goaltending.

 

 

 

[John from Riverside]

17 hours ago, without a drought said:

Not really,  I'm good with the way things are.

Always good to have options......see Chiefs game

[Richard Noggin]

17 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Right so if you design every play to hit 6 or 7 yards, you avoid lots of third downs- which is what the thread topic is.

One could make the argument that an offense DESIGNED to gain 6-7 yards per successful play is more of a dink and dunk approach that would RELY upon a high 3rd down conversion rate. Usually about 2 out of 3 plays succeed, for good offenses (if we look at QB completion percentages, for example), so...there would be 3rd downs as such an attack matriculates down the field. 

 

Just saying. It's not quite as simple and implicit as you might think. I really saw those Patriots offenses thriving in 3rd-and-managable. 

[BigDingus]

On 8/18/2021 at 11:54 AM, billsfan89 said:

In years past when it was third and long I would assume it would be a greater than 90% chance that the Bills would punt. With Josh in 2020 I was pretty confident the offense would have at least a solid 40% chance to keep the ball (not sure on the actual percentages of the teams third down success but that's just what it felt like to me). I almost never feel like the team is out on a possession. 

 

On the flip side, I feel like our opponents always have a 95% chance to convert on 3rd & long lol

 

It's probably the Bills PTSD talking, but whenever I see 3rd & 12 or 3rd & 19, it just feels like no matter what happens, the opponent is going to convert. 3rd & 5 though? They got that locked down 

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, BigDingus said:

 

On the flip side, I feel like our opponents always have a 95% chance to convert on 3rd & long lol

 

It's probably the Bills PTSD talking, but whenever I see 3rd & 12 or 3rd & 19, it just feels like no matter what happens, the opponent is going to convert. 3rd & 5 though? They got that locked down 

There definitely was some sort of issue on third and long in 2020. Especially against better offenses it was a huge issue. It was just odd since I felt like in 2019 the defense was pretty solid on closing the door on third and long. 

[FieldGeneral]

With Allen's tendency to run around backwards, 3rd and long happens a lot. Sure, the occasional NE MNF TD happens, but more often than not, bad things happen.