Star L. possible cut?

[junior]

Not sure how we got to 5 pages... as I'm sure many people have covered in this thread, Joe B said it would cost more to cut him than it would to keep him on the roster. That's all we need to know to speculate if he's on the roster next year or not.

[Doc]

1 hour ago, yall said:

So this is actually what I was referring to. Let's just say my friend is in real estate. 

 

I didn't realize this was public knowledge yet. So he and I were theorizing he knows he's going to be cut, but as I now know cutting had major cap implications, retirement may be more likely.

 

I was referring to Lee Smith, but I see that you're saying that Star's house is on the market.  Maybe he decided to sell now, rent for a year and then move on after the season because he knows this will be his last?  I don't know.

 

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

Doubt many of the rest can be had for vet min. That would be a significant cut for a bunch of them. And for guys at that kind of level they'd probably want to look around if offered vet min. Yeldon, for ex, is about $1.6 per year, Marlowe $1.5M, McKenzie will be looking for quite a bit more than vet min this year, and will deserve it. When given targets, he produced, he had five TDs, plus a punt RB for a TD. ESPN recently predicted 3 years and $10M, with the Bills. That might be a bit high this year, but if they offer vet min he's probably gone. And if they do let Roberts go, McKenzie becomes even more valuable to the FO.

 

You left out Feliciano, who I think they re-sign for somewhere in the $3 - $4M range. Spotrac and SB Nation both predicted around $7M per year in FA. He wants to give them a deal, but you're likely dreaming if you think he takes a vet min kind of deal.

 

Also doubt they go with Fromm in place of Barkley. Barkley ($2M a year) is a tremendous help to Josh, with a ton of veteran know-how and is also a lot more likely to handle himself better if there's an injury. Josh already knows a ton more than Fromm, who wasn't even in QB meetings last year, couldn't really throw the ball in anger last year as the COVID relief QB. If Barkley goes, they'll bring someone else in to replace him.

 

And yeah, someone like Daryl Williams could easily go but if so, they'll almost surely bring in someone to replace him, and not a vet min guy either.

 

With the cap being tight this year for many teams, I can see them being re-signed for the minimum.  And yes I forgot Feliciano and $3-4M is the highest I'd go.

 

I'll stick with my belief that Fromm will be the only QB on the roster backing-up Josh.  Again the cap is tight.

 

They need to re-sign Williams.

 

 

[MrSarcasm]

If i was a betting woman I'd bet Star is gone before the trade deadline. This situation is similar to the Quinton Spain scenario last year.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

21 minutes ago, MrSarcasm said:

If i was a betting woman I'd bet Star is gone before the trade deadline. This situation is similar to the Quinton Spain scenario last year.

I wouldn’t. They need a NT and moving him costs more money than playing him

[transient]

5 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Everything I've read says it would be a negative cap hit.  They'd owe more money than they'd save.

 

Unless Star has a agreed to give a big chunk of the bonus money back, but that very rarely ever happens.  Likely if he tried the union would be all over him for setting a bad president.

I sooooo want to make a comment about this on the main board, but rules are rules. 

[Brennan Huff]

5 hours ago, yall said:

Good friend of mine with pretty accurate sources tells me he has reason to believe Star Lotulelei is gonna get cut. Based on what he shared with me, seems very possible.

 

From a cap perspective, does it make sense? I didn't get the feeling he was a likely candidate for release.

Your friend is not an accurate source. He may have guessed right on a few things...

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

1 hour ago, The Red King said:

There is value in this thread.  It's more then just a baseless rumor.  This thread evolved into an interesting discussion about Star's contract and the impact, positive or negative, on the Bills' cap if he were cut.

 

OP never said it would happen, clearly stated it was a rumor, and then followed up by asking a legitimate question.  I swear, sometimes people get worked up over the smallest things.

Mark my words— I will never, ever bend the knee to the Red King no matter how much sense he makes.  
 

Freeeeeedom! 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

32 minutes ago, Brennan Huff said:

Your friend is not an accurate source. He may have guessed right on a few things...

I mean if he sees the dudes house for sale it’s not unreasonable to speculate. 
 

Every single user on this MB would’ve made the thread if they saw/found out a players house was for sale. 

[yall]

9 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I mean if he sees the dudes house for sale it’s not unreasonable to speculate. 
 

Every single user on this MB would’ve made the thread if they saw/found out a players house was for sale. 

I could have been more clear that our speculation was based on fact, but I thought I was operating on on private info.

 

Had I known it was public the title would have been the usual "so-and-so is selling their house" that we see here from time to time.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

4 minutes ago, yall said:

I could have been more clear that our speculation was based on fact, but I thought I was operating on on private info.

 

Had I known it was public the title would have been the usual "so-and-so is selling their house" that we see here from time to time.

I get it, my little bro is in real estate, I wouldn’t want to disclose any info to the public that could even slightly land him in hot water

[LABILLBACKER]

6 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Disaster of a contract.

Yup....it's really starting to look that way. Whatever happens we better start looking for another 1Tech. I don't think Star is long for this team. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

If he wants to retire, I wonder if they have him wait and just ‘opt out’ again to save the cap hit until next year

[Doc]

Just now, TheyCallMeAndy said:

If he wants to retire, I wonder if they have him wait and just ‘opt out’ again to save the cap hit until next year

 

That would be the best plan.  

[Rochesterfan]

22 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

If he wants to retire, I wonder if they have him wait and just ‘opt out’ again to save the cap hit until next year

 

There has been no indications that they will allow opt outs again this year.

 

That was a one time agreed to thing and I do not believe the NFL/NFLPA have discussed it.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

36 minutes ago, yall said:

I could have been more clear that our speculation was based on fact, but I thought I was operating on on private info.

Had I known it was public the title would have been the usual "so-and-so is selling their house" that we see here from time to time.

 

I guess I'd just like to point out that selling a house doesn't have to mean anything about whether or not the player won't be on the team next year.

 

-He's married with kids, he and his wife could have decided they will live somewhere else for school during the season and he will live in Buffalo in a smaller place

-He could be planning to live in Buffalo, but want a different house in a different location, either for different facilities or for location (schools etc)

 

Or, he could be planning to retire.  I thought the following quotes from an old article were kind of telling:

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/star-lotulelei-a-hard-worker-a-family-man-and-a-joker-no-really/article_2068c3cb-b614-5a07-be8e-2a41c663a6f9.html

 

Quote

Lotulelei doesn't love football. He loves his family, and he credits his wife and children with his newfound maturity and work ethic.

 

Quote

It's clear his motivation to succeed is also fueled by his teammates.

"It's your livelihood," Lotulelei said. "For me, it's what I do for a living. It's how I provide for my wife and my kids. And I have other people here that are counting on me to help feed their families, as well. So, it's not only for myself, but for my teammates, as well."

 

[Rochesterfan]

36 minutes ago, yall said:

I could have been more clear that our speculation was based on fact, but I thought I was operating on on private info.

 

Had I known it was public the title would have been the usual "so-and-so is selling their house" that we see here from time to time.

 

So what you are saying is that Star’s home is for sale?

 

I have read through the thread and it seems you are the only one with that info.  The other mention of a home for sale was referencing Lee Smith who put his home up and has talked about retirement in interviews.

 

Now after several pages and a very poorly written initial post - you are saying that you believe that Star is getting cut because his house might be for sale?

 

Maybe you need to gather some thoughts and present them in an organized manner to ensure they make sense.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

There has been no indications that they will allow opt outs again this year.

That was a one time agreed to thing and I do not believe the NFL/NFLPA have discussed it.

 

I can't find it now, but I saw something at one point from one of the insiders - Schefter or Rappaport - indicating that opt-outs would be allowed again this season, but that how it would work was being negotiated and it would be more of a negotiation between the team and the player as to how their contract would be handled vs. last season where it was cut-n-dried, "I'm opting out", here's your $150,000, your contract gets suspended for a year and picks up where it would have next season.

 

I can't say whether or not they've discussed it yet.

[freddyjj]

Preposterous idea OP!  Let's eat up 7% of our cap space on a 1T DT by cutting him and absorbing a $12.6mm hit.  And then add in another $5mm to find a replacement veteran placeholder.  

 

Your source is dazed and confused.  Or at least lacking in logic.

Edited March 11, 2021 by freddyjj

[Reed83HOF]

39 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Yup....it's really starting to look that way. Whatever happens we better start looking for another 1Tech. I don't think Star is long for this team. 

After a year off as an older vet in the league, I am sure it very tempting to say yup I'm done....

 

If I could retire early I sure as hell would lol

[Rochesterfan]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I can't find it now, but I saw something at one point from one of the insiders - Schefter or Rappaport - indicating that opt-outs would be allowed again this season, but that how it would work was being negotiated and it would be more of a negotiation between the team and the player as to how their contract would be handled vs. last season where it was cut-n-dried, "I'm opting out", here's your $150,000, your contract gets suspended for a year and picks up where it would have next season.

 

I can't say whether or not they've discussed it yet.

 

They were talking on moving the chains today on Sirius that as of right now there is no opt out.  It would need to be agreed to and the league was more worried about salary cap first.

 

Now that that is done they are working on FA and the draft.  It may get discussed as they finalize those aspects, but it is not guaranteed especially as the vaccine becomes more available.  
 

 

[Brennan Huff]

1 hour ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I mean if he sees the dudes house for sale it’s not unreasonable to speculate. 
 

Every single user on this MB would’ve made the thread if they saw/found out a players house was for sale. 

Yes you’re right. That was not in the OP. I don’t read through all the pages 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

They were talking on moving the chains today on Sirius that as of right now there is no opt out.  It would need to be agreed to and the league was more worried about salary cap first.

 

Now that that is done they are working on FA and the draft.  It may get discussed as they finalize those aspects, but it is not guaranteed especially as the vaccine becomes more available. 

 

I'm not sure that vaccine availability is a deciding factor for opt-outs.

 

With regard to the NFL, they can not require employees to be vaccinated.  The critical information is that all the covid-19 vaccines are currently approved under EUA.  It is illegal for an employer to require an employee to be vaccinated with an EUA vaccine.  100% confidence on this point and Yes, I actually do know WTF I'm talking about here.

 

Employees can be required to be vaccinated with fully approved vaccines (eg, Hepatitis for food service, or Influenza for nurses, or Meningitis for college students).  But "Experimental Use" that's a big N-O no.  So players next season will be going helmet-to-helmet and swapping spit with other players, some of whom will be vaccinated and some of whom won't.  Risk of that to be determined depending upon what other measures the NFL and NFLPA agree upon.

 

Please don't take this as carte blanche to talk about Aunt Josie's neighbor Lil whose employer fired her because she wouldn't get the jab....sure it's happened, sure it's not legal when it did.

[yall]

3 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

So what you are saying is that Star’s home is for sale?

 

I have read through the thread and it seems you are the only one with that info.  The other mention of a home for sale was referencing Lee Smith who put his home up and has talked about retirement in interviews.

 

Now after several pages and a very poorly written initial post - you are saying that you believe that Star is getting cut because his house might be for sale?

 

Maybe you need to gather some thoughts and present them in an organized manner to ensure they make sense.

We'll see who is right soon enough I suspect. 

 

I already know which one of us is an ass.

[Rochesterfan]

5 minutes ago, yall said:

We'll see who is right soon enough I suspect. 

 

I already know which one of us is an ass.

 

We all agree that you are - nice that you see it too.

 

 

😂

[yall]

1 minute ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

We all agree that you are - nice that you see it too.

 

 

😂

Sick burn man.

[ColoradoBills]

5 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

After a year off as an older vet in the league, I am sure it very tempting to say yup I'm done....

 

If I could retire early I sure as hell would lol

 

I just did and it's wonderful!

[RaoulDuke79]

11 hours ago, 1ManRaid said:

Ah, the classic "I know a guy, don't ask about it" anonymous source.

 

Well my uncle who works at Nintendo says your friend is full of crap.

In all fairness he's pretty much on par with most media outlets, but I agree. The "I know a guy who knows a guy", sources are always a bit fishy.

Edited March 12, 2021 by RaoulDuke79

[Augie]

8 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I just did and it's wonderful!

 

I retired in my 50’s and I can see why many players say they will really miss the locker room and the guys. I guess it depends upon how much you like your work. I loved mine, but it wasn’t really transferable when we moved. 

 

For Star a lot will depend upon how he’s managed his body and conditioning during his year off. Did I read he dropped a bunch of weight? 

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

They are stuck with Star...

 

 

Yup. Happily stuck.

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, yall said:

So this is actually what I was referring to. Let's just say my friend is in real estate. 

 

I didn't realize this was public knowledge yet. So he and I were theorizing he knows he's going to be cut, but as I now know cutting had major cap implications, retirement may be more likely.

 

 

Totally reasonable assumption.

 

I know that there's never been a case where a guy didn't like his house and moved to another one in the same city. That's just never happened. So yeah, by far more likely that he's leaving his job.

 

Nor has it ever happened that a football player decided that he and his family would live elsewhere in the offseason and he'd come back alone during the season and rent bachelor digs. Nor would that ever happen after a warm-weather guy and his family spend a Buffalo winter and decide to move the family at the end of that.

 

So if Star's house is actually on the market and it's not just Lee Smith's house ... Clearly there's only one reasonable explanation for this.

Edited March 12, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, Doc said:

 

With the cap being tight this year for many teams, I can see them being re-signed for the minimum.  And yes I forgot Feliciano and $3-4M is the highest I'd go.

 

I'll stick with my belief that Fromm will be the only QB on the roster backing-up Josh.  Again the cap is tight.

 

They need to re-sign Williams.

 

 

 

I can see it as a possibility. Not a likelihood, though, far from it.

 

Go ahead and stick with Fromm if you like, but I think you're wrong there. The guy was the COVID backup. He missed out on large parts of what a rookie usually gets. In a Super Bowl-possible year, you don't want a guy like Fromm who's never thrown a single pass, and never even had a real off-season to be your QB if Allen gets injured. Expect Barkley or a replacement to be on the roster. At the edge of possibility I could imagine that replacement being Davis Webb. At least he's a guy who you know what you have.

 

I agree with you that they can get Feliciano for $3 - $4M cap hit this year if they do a little contract ju-jitsu. And I also agree that he would be worth that even in this difficult year.

 

But if you offer most of the others vet min, even the ones who would like to stay are likely to be gone. The difference between vet min and $1.5 or $2M isn't all that big for a team, but it's huge for these guys. You look at a guy like McKenzie. You speculate Roberts will be gone, which I think is a real possibility. If so, McKenzie's value immediately rises. Again, he had five TDs last year and a kick return TD besides. If we don't give him $2 or $3M, someone will. And he'll take that offer if we're offering vet min, and then we'll be stuck offering someone else a contract and discovering that for vet min you get a guy you hope not to see in the lineup except as a short-term injury replacement.

 

Same for guys like Marlowe. He'll never be a $4M guy, but he has real value as a backup who won't drop the level at which your defense will play. He'll very likely get more than vet min. A bit less than he might another year? Yeah, probably. But that's exactly why teams that have money this year are even luckier than teams that have money in a normal year. They can offer a guy like Marlowe or McKenzie a 20% or 30% cut and get a bargain in that teams that are having cap problems won't be able to match. Guys like Marlowe, Barkley, Boettger, Levi Wallace. They don't come back for vet min. In Joe B's season projection, he suggested tendering them as UFAs and understanding you might lose a few of them. Yeah, much more reasonable.

 

And I'd love to see them re-sign Williams. I'm with you there, but IMO that's where the tight cap hits and hurts. Not in forcing us to miss out on a guy like Marlowe or McKenzie or Barkley or Yeldon, if they want to keep him, or Bojorquez or Feliciano, who you can bring back without spending too too much extra. It's the guy with the big possibilities like Daryl Williams. So far in his career, Williams earned $2.8M in his first four years and last year's $6M. He's not going to be looking to give us a break here.

 

The general consensus has long been that we could sign Milano or Williams. I think that's right, though I'd love to get them both.

 

So they probably can't bring Williams back but they will have to replace him, and not with a vet min guy either. Even if they think it's likely they will go OT in the 1st round, Beane loves to fill his obvious holes in FA with mid-level guys so he isn't forced to reach in the draft if things don't fall the way he likes. So IMO they can't bring back Williams but will bring in a replacement for somewhere between, say $2.5 - $4M, maybe a bit less this year if they are willing to finagle the contract a bit to backload it.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 12, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, yall said:

So again, reading comprehension.

 

It's now been confirmed that his house is on the market. So what my source told me was in fact accurate. I wasn't aware this was public knowledge.

 

We speculated that this meant he knew he was getting cut so I asked this forum if that was likely given the cap hit. In retrospect retirement seems more likely.

 

Bottom line is, I think it's a reasonable indicator that he won't be here. Maybe he's tired of the winters, but I'd bet you a beer at the next TBD tailgate that he's done. 

 

Edit: tht was directed at MGK initially but the point stands.

 

 

Speaking of reading comprehension problems, dude ... No, it has NOT been confirmed.

 

What was confirmed here was that Lee Smith's home was on the market. Go back and check it out. So, if there are reading comprehension problems here, they are yours.

 

 

Edited March 12, 2021 by Thurman#1

[MJS]

Your friend straight up lied to you, man.

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not sure that vaccine availability is a deciding factor for opt-outs.

 

With regard to the NFL, they can not require employees to be vaccinated.  The critical information is that all the covid-19 vaccines are currently approved under EUA.  It is illegal for an employer to require an employee to be vaccinated with an EUA vaccine.  100% confidence on this point and Yes, I actually do know WTF I'm talking about here.

 

Employees can be required to be vaccinated with fully approved vaccines (eg, Hepatitis for food service, or Influenza for nurses, or Meningitis for college students).  But "Experimental Use" that's a big N-O no.  So players next season will be going helmet-to-helmet and swapping spit with other players, some of whom will be vaccinated and some of whom won't.  Risk of that to be determined depending upon what other measures the NFL and NFLPA agree upon.

 

Please don't take this as carte blanche to talk about Aunt Josie's neighbor Lil whose employer fired her because she wouldn't get the jab....sure it's happened, sure it's not legal when it did.

 

 

Hapless, of course you're right that nobody can legally require vaccinations.

 

But that doesn't mean that if a player decides not to get the vaccination the NFL should still be required to give them the ability to opt out. That's a very questionable thought.

 

I don't know what will happen with optouts. Duh. But if the vaccine is widely available well before the season, that will likely take a great deal of pressure off the NFL in terms of providing the option to opt out.

[valle78787878]

guys you can't cut Star because he oppted out you can't cut him 

[newcam2012]

17 hours ago, fergie's ire said:

Agreed.  Although Star's value is hard to see on a stat sheet, I do think his absence made it clear how important he is to the defense.  I do think the Bills want to get better and younger at his position and they should be trying to find his replacement...but for this year we definitely want him.

I agree. We really missed him in the middle last year. Star isn't worth the money the Bills are paying him but he does add value to our suspect D line and run D. 

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, valle78787878 said:

guys you can't cut Star because he oppted out you can't cut him 

Actually you can.   It may not make sense to but he can be cut.  

[BillsFan1988]

19 hours ago, yall said:

Good friend of mine with pretty accurate sources tells me he has reason to believe Star Lotulelei is gonna get cut. Based on what he shared with me, seems very possible.

 

From a cap perspective, does it make sense? I didn't get the feeling he was a likely candidate for release.

From what I read he saves 4.7 mil on the total cap but there's alot of dead money. 

 

Maybe he's not in shape to come back or the Bills got word that he might opt out again . 

[yall]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Speaking of reading comprehension problems, dude ... No, it has NOT been confirmed.

 

What was confirmed here was that Lee Smith's home was on the market. Go back and check it out. So, if there are reading comprehension problems here, they are yours.

 

 

Well I confirmed it then, albeit inadvertently...

[TPS]

23 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I’m going by the Spotrac link.  If you click the red x at the right under the season in question it shows the possible cut and trade financials. 

This issue has been bothering me since our discussion.  It's my understanding that making him a post-June cut would mean they are only on the hook this year for his guaranteed money and one year of the prorated bonus, pushing the remaining two years into next year's dead cap.  I checked out "over the cap", and they show his cap hit as I was figuring.  Designating him a June 1 cut, gives them $500K cap saving, with $7.1 mil dead cap this year and $5.2 mil next year:

https://overthecap.com/player/star-lotulelei/2282/

 

I assum this is the correct reading of it.  Again, I'm not 100%, but I thought that's how it worked.