Josh Allen's Shoulder Harness

[mjt328]

At this point, I think it's become 100% clear that our mid-season slump on offense was due to Josh Allen's shoulder injury.

 

Usually when a Quarterback is nursing an injury, it's one of the biggest news stories surrounding the team.  But the Bills coaching staff played this one very smart, and didn't talk about it at all.  They didn't want the opponent to get a competitive advantage.  Very smart.  In fact, I think most of us were unaware he was wearing some kind of brace/harness until a few games after him getting hurt in Las Vegas.

 

• In the games prior to the injury (Jets, Dolphins, Rams, Raiders), the Bills put up 27, 31, 35 and 30 points.
• During the weeks Allen was wearing the brace (Titans, Chiefs, Jets, Patriots), the Bills offense scored 16, 17, 18 and 24.
• Since losing the harness (starting against the Seahawks), the offense has been unstoppable, putting up 44, 30, 27, 34, 26, 48 and 38.

 

Simply put... the team the Titans and Chiefs beat earlier in the season is NOT the same one they would be facing today.

Not to mention, the Defense hasn't allowed 25 points since the Bye.

 

 

[TroutDog]

You may be on to something here. It seems as though it is more than chance.
 

In addition, if you go back and watch those games and see the closeups of Josh, his facial expression is very different and, I suspect, that was due to pain. Anecdotal, I know, but just another bit of info. 

[Don Otreply]

Yup, in hind sight it became pretty obvious that the shoulder injury was the issue. 
 

No one wants what the Bills are dishing out right now. 
 

Go Bills!!!
 

[Beast]

Thanks for posting that. It sure does make sense.

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Beast

[mjt328]

In the 11 games that Josh Allen was not wearing the shoulder harness, the Bills:

- Have scored 33.6 points per game

- Have a 10-1 record, with their only loss coming on the Hail Murray

 

During that same stretch, Allen also has:

- 7 games over 300 yards, 2 over 400

- 10 games with multiple touchdown passes, and 4 games with 4 touchdown passes

- 8 games with a QB rating over 100

 

[Chandler#81]

13 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

At this point, I think it's become 100% clear that our mid-season slump on offense was due to Josh Allen's shoulder injury.

 

Usually when a Quarterback is nursing an injury, it's one of the biggest news stories surrounding the team.  But the Bills coaching staff played this one very smart, and didn't talk about it at all.  They didn't want the opponent to get a competitive advantage.  Very smart.  In fact, I think most of us were unaware he was wearing some kind of brace/harness until a few games after him getting hurt in Las Vegas.

 

• In the games prior to the injury (Jets, Dolphins, Rams, Raiders), the Bills put up 27, 31, 35 and 30 points.
• During the weeks Allen was wearing the brace (Titans, Chiefs, Jets, Patriots), the Bills offense scored 16, 17, 18 and 24.
• Since losing the harness (starting against the Seahawks), the offense has been unstoppable, putting up 44, 30, 27, 34, 26, 48 and 38.

 

Simply put... the team the Titans and Chiefs beat earlier in the season is NOT the same one they would be facing today.

Not to mention, the Defense hasn't allowed 25 points since the Bye.

 

 

Post of the Year candidate. Voting in 2 days.

[gobills404]

Here's how his stats would look if you took his 11 healthy games and spread them over a 16 game season.

 

71% completion rate, 5054 passing yards (8.3 ypa), 399 rushing yards (4.1 ypa), 54 total TD (44 passing + 10 rushing), 6 int, 115.8 passer rating

 

Absolutely unreal numbers.

 

Edit: plus he was missing smoke for 5 of those 11

Edited December 29, 2020 by gobills404

[chris heff]

Correct me if I’m wrong (like I need to write that), but I think Josh’s injury was only part of it. OL was being juggled, injuries on defense. They still only had two losses to two very good teams. This team has fought through adversity. The loss to Arizona was indicative, if not for incredible Hail Mary, a play where Bills did everything right, they win it with great drive under two minutes. No quit, no panic, I feel very good about where this team is. 

[Doc]

6 minutes ago, chris heff said:

Correct me if I’m wrong (like I need to write that), but I think Josh’s injury was only part of it. OL was being juggled, injuries on defense. They still only had two losses to two very good teams. This team has fought through adversity. The loss to Arizona was indicative, if not for incredible Hail Mary, a play where Bills did everything right, they win it with great drive under two minutes. No quit, no panic, I feel very good about where this team is. 

Sure there were other issues, but his injury was the biggest factor. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Josh had to learn to play without a healthy John Brown. John Brown injury might have been the best thing for Allen as he learned to take what the defense was giving him. He's a different QB right now. 

 

 

[SCBills]

Great post OP.

 

I completely agree on the shoulder harness/shoulder injury being the primary reason for that 4 game Offensive dip in production.  

 

Also, we can't discount the fact that this also coincided with Brown missing time.  We're used to him being out now, but last year Brown was Josh's guy, and continued to be a gamebreaker in the first 4 games before the injury bug took him out.

[MJS]

This has been talked about a lot, but yeah, it certainly bothered him. Also, those games had poorer weather and were against some better opponents (besides the Jets).

[wvbillsfan]

17 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Josh had to learn to play without a healthy John Brown. John Brown injury might have been the best thing for Allen as he learned to take what the defense was giving him. He's a different QB right now. 

 

 

When he quickly hit that check down to Mckenzie, that may have been the happiest I've been as a Bills fan in a long time. First down, move the chains, next play lets go- that is the last step he is missing to being unstoppable. He's been patient at times this year but he got to that check down so fast. 

[Buffalo Boy]

41 minutes ago, chris heff said:

Correct me if I’m wrong (like I need to write that), but I think Josh’s injury was only part of it. OL was being juggled, injuries on defense. They still only had two losses to two very good teams. This team has fought through adversity. The loss to Arizona was indicative, if not for incredible Hail Mary, a play where Bills did everything right, they win it with great drive under two minutes. No quit, no panic, I feel very good about where this team is. 

Agreed. The team was beat up. It happens.

We got two wins during that stretch and the team/ coaches didn’t panic.

These kinds of stretches are invaluable in the future. 
Unlike those Kelly era teams, this season hasn’t been a cakewalk in the AFC East. The first NE game was tough and Miami is no slouch.

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 minutes ago, wvbillsfan said:

When he quickly hit that check down to Mckenzie, that may have been the happiest I've been as a Bills fan in a long time. First down, move the chains, next play lets go- that is the last step he is missing to being unstoppable. He's been patient at times this year but he got to that check down so fast. 

Yes. That was a great example. It's not just that he got the ball to Mckenzie its that he made the decision quick enough to give Mckenzie a chance to make a play. He holds the ball another second waiting for someone in the end zone to open up and maybe Mckenzie wouldn't be able to run after the catch. Timing is so important 

[dollars 2 donuts]

2 hours ago, mjt328 said:

At this point, I think it's become 100% clear that our mid-season slump on offense was due to Josh Allen's shoulder injury.

 

Usually when a Quarterback is nursing an injury, it's one of the biggest news stories surrounding the team.  But the Bills coaching staff played this one very smart, and didn't talk about it at all.  They didn't want the opponent to get a competitive advantage.  Very smart.  In fact, I think most of us were unaware he was wearing some kind of brace/harness until a few games after him getting hurt in Las Vegas.

 

• In the games prior to the injury (Jets, Dolphins, Rams, Raiders), the Bills put up 27, 31, 35 and 30 points.
• During the weeks Allen was wearing the brace (Titans, Chiefs, Jets, Patriots), the Bills offense scored 16, 17, 18 and 24.
• Since losing the harness (starting against the Seahawks), the offense has been unstoppable, putting up 44, 30, 27, 34, 26, 48 and 38.

 

Simply put... the team the Titans and Chiefs beat earlier in the season is NOT the same one they would be facing today.

Not to mention, the Defense hasn't allowed 25 points since the Bye.

 

 

 

 

Can I marry you?  I'll ask my wife for permission, but she'll understand once she reads your take.

 

I've been trying to get this point across on other sports/non bills boards to no avail.

 

F'n ridiculous...and I am talking directly to you NFL taking heads!

Edited December 29, 2020 by dollars 2 donuts

[Maynard]

I’ve felt this way the entire time! Great post btw.  I could definitely tell Josh was being hampered by this injury. It seemed like many weren’t buying that though and the talking heads never even brought it up. To be fair though, the team did keep it pretty hush hush. 

[stevewin]

I rewatched the Chiefs game last week that was being replayed on NFL network - there was a point in the game where Josh comes to the sideline wincing - and his left hand is in his pocket/warmer just hanging limp.  It was so obvious that even just standing there he was in great pain.  It's kind of amazing he gutted through that for those games to even play - not no mention actually play decently enough that most casual observers didn't even realize was fairly significantly injured.

[Blainorama5]

is this Harness Gate ???  😉

[mjt328]

6 hours ago, chris heff said:

Correct me if I’m wrong (like I need to write that), but I think Josh’s injury was only part of it. OL was being juggled, injuries on defense. They still only had two losses to two very good teams. This team has fought through adversity. The loss to Arizona was indicative, if not for incredible Hail Mary, a play where Bills did everything right, they win it with great drive under two minutes. No quit, no panic, I feel very good about where this team is. 

 

Oh yes.  There were definitely other potential reasons, all of which were discussed thoroughly Weeks 5-8.

John Brown being hobbled and then out.  The lack of running game.  Defenses playing deeper coverage and forcing the passing game to be more patient.  Some were even saying Josh Allen's early success was just a mirage.

 

But Brown hasn't played since Week 10, and the offense is still putting up huge numbers.

The running game has still been spotty, and seems more complimentary than something opponents really need to worry about.

Defenses are now getting picked apart, regardless of how they play us.

 

All of this tells me that something else was behind the offensive drop in play.

It can't be a coincidence that Allen's worst 4 games all happened with the shoulder brace.  The moment he took it off, we dropped 44 on the Seahawks.

 

[Ray Stonada]

On 12/29/2020 at 2:10 PM, mjt328 said:

At this point, I think it's become 100% clear that our mid-season slump on offense was due to Josh Allen's shoulder injury.

 

Usually when a Quarterback is nursing an injury, it's one of the biggest news stories surrounding the team.  But the Bills coaching staff played this one very smart, and didn't talk about it at all.  They didn't want the opponent to get a competitive advantage.  Very smart.  In fact, I think most of us were unaware he was wearing some kind of brace/harness until a few games after him getting hurt in Las Vegas.

 

• In the games prior to the injury (Jets, Dolphins, Rams, Raiders), the Bills put up 27, 31, 35 and 30 points.
• During the weeks Allen was wearing the brace (Titans, Chiefs, Jets, Patriots), the Bills offense scored 16, 17, 18 and 24.
• Since losing the harness (starting against the Seahawks), the offense has been unstoppable, putting up 44, 30, 27, 34, 26, 48 and 38.

 

Simply put... the team the Titans and Chiefs beat earlier in the season is NOT the same one they would be facing today.

Not to mention, the Defense hasn't allowed 25 points since the Bye.

 

 

 

I agreed with this, OP, but after the playoffs it bears revisiting. Our offense averaged about 20 points in the three playoff games, and Josh didn't look that much better in the AFCCG than he did against the Chiefs in the regular season.

 

I still think the shoulder harness hurt him, but it seems fair to say he got a little tight against KC both times, too, missing checkdowns and playing with slightly less confidence than in other games.

 

 

 

[Charles Romes]

The kid went back into the Raiders game making it look to the opponent that nothing had happened, though the pain had to be excruciating. 

[Doc]

3 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

I agreed with this, OP, but after the playoffs it bears revisiting. Our offense averaged about 20 points in the three playoff games, and Josh didn't look that much better in the AFCCG than he did against the Chiefs in the regular season.

 

I still think the shoulder harness hurt him, but it seems fair to say he got a little tight against KC both times, too, missing checkdowns and playing with slightly less confidence than in other games.

 

Neither did the rest of the team.  In fact, the OL looked (and played) far worse. 

 

And the PPG was brought-down by the windy Ravens game.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Doc

[Nihilarian]

While the injury to the QB could account for that slump in numbers after the Raiders game. Week 5 Titans, 6 Chiefs, 7 Jets, 8 Patriots. 

 

What the heck happened in the playoffs? A close win over the Colts and yet the Colts won ToP and yardage 34:16 to 25:43, 472 yards to 397. Allen the leading rusher in this game with 11 carries. 

 

Against the Ravens it was the Buffalo defense that took charge and that pick six was a 14 point differential. The Bills offense only scored 10 points and again Buffalo lost ToP and yards by 35:33, 25:77. 340 yards to 220. 

 

38-24 drubbing by the Chiefs and the wheels came off. Buffalo even had a 9 point lead after the first quarter. The Buffalo defense fell on their face and so did part of the offense. Josh tried to carry the game being the leading rusher and passer 28 of 48 for 287, 2 TDs, 1 INT. 

 

The Chiefs showed all the flaws on this Buffalo team that need correcting. 

 

Great season, tough ending. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

I agreed with this, OP, but after the playoffs it bears revisiting. Our offense averaged about 20 points in the three playoff games, and Josh didn't look that much better in the AFCCG than he did against the Chiefs in the regular season.

 

I still think the shoulder harness hurt him, but it seems fair to say he got a little tight against KC both times, too, missing checkdowns and playing with slightly less confidence than in other games.

 

There's no question that in addition to just missing on some throws (which was likely the shoulder injury), Josh absolutely overlooked wide open checkdowns in the Tenn and the first KC game.  Brett Kollman did a film room piece "Josh Allen vs the World" where he spends a lot of time breaking down the first KC game (start 8 minutes in if this link doesn't take you to that time point).  He explains what the Bills offense "perfect play" seemed to be and how KC gameplanned to take that away. 

 

At about 11:20 Kollman starts showing examples of available checkdowns with so much green grass in front of them, they could plant a freakin' Christmas tree farm on the way to the 1st down marker or even the endzone. 

 

IMHO, part of the Bills problem was "Party Hat Syndrome".  The Bills played hard, fast, and physical in the Ravens game.  The KC DL is no better and maybe worse than the Ravens DL, but they were shoving our OL around.  Ditto the KC OL featured a lot of backups, but they were playing physical and shoving our DL around.  I think we were like "Whoo!  Exceeded expectations - going to the AFC Championship!" and not "OK, next team to mow over...."

 

 

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

There has to be a point where this team doesn't just settle for a seasonal accomplishment. In 2019 were they just content to make the playoffs? The next season we take a huge step and win the afce. Were we just content to reach the afccg?  We were conservative against the Texans after that lead and we were conservative against the Chiefs. The only expectations should be a Lombardi.