Revisting 2019 Draft - D.K. Metcalf?

[Paulus]

He was like Mattheu in that a lot of fans wanted him on their favorite team, but NFL teams thought they knew better. 

 

No way we could have passed on Oliver, though. 

Edited October 10, 2020 by Paulus

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

 

He's currently 4th in receptions and yards for all tight ends in the NFL with terrible QB play. He's and emerging star from a college that produces star tight ends. 

 

I like Noah Fant. But tight end is a position I would basically never spend a first round pick on. The value just isn't there. 

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Russ Wilson would be the other top 5 trade value guy IMO...........and Buddy Nix missed on him but that was about the only legit shot at a franchise altering player they got a look at in their 7 years in charge.   They had very little margin for error.   Beane has had a bunch.  

 

 

You know what that is a really good point although (I presume by 7 years you mean Nix and Whaley?) Beane didn't have a chance at Mahomes and Watson he wasn't here yet, but this regime did in the sense that McDermott ran that draft.

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

You don't draft an ok starting guard with your 2nd round pick.... hell not even a solid starting guard is a good use of resources with your 2nd round pick.

 

 

 

To me to be worth that he has to be good enough that it is a slam dunk decision to extend him when the time comes (which really is end of year 3 before he goes into the final year). Ford can still get there and he is only 4 games into his guard career but he has a ways to travel.

[DCOrange]

Oliver was my #1 realistic target in the first round last year. DK was my #2. Needless to say I was upset we didn’t end up with both when it was doable.

 

Having said that, I liked Ford as a prospect as well so I didn’t think he was a bad pick; just wasn’t the right pick. 

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I like Noah Fant. But tight end is a position I would basically never spend a first round pick on. The value just isn't there. 

 

You know what that is a really good point although (I presume by 7 years you mean Nix and Whaley?) Beane didn't have a chance at Mahomes and Watson he wasn't here yet, but this regime did in the sense that McDermott ran that draft.

 

 

It's almost surreal how the Bills once seemed to have never been in position to draft top QB's and suddenly they were falling into their laps.

 

Buffalo used to have an NBA team and in their existence they were the same way...........in their 9 years I believe they drafted or acquired 4 young players who would become future HOF's.........guys who were NBA MVP's and scoring leaders from the mid-70's to mid-80's.    And they drafted or traded for a host of other really good young players.    They moved to the west coast and became what are now the LA Clippers and basically have never drafted one in the 43 years since..........despite picking at the very top of the draft dozens of times.

 

McBeane's luck even extended to a guy like Metcalf............in most years,  even with the red flag with his neck........a talent like that gets picked in the late teens.    Like Randy Moss or Jevon Kearse.    Metcalf on a nine route is the least coverable targeted route in the NFL.........and it's not close.........something that would have been perfect for the huge armed Allen.  That miss should have been monumental...........but then the following season Diggs becomes available and he's arguably the least coverable WR in general in the NFL now.   So they got there on their second chance.

 

My concern is that they've not made the most of their luck............which looks like a first world problem when you are winning.    But they've wasted some assets with decisions where I just really thought they had bad processes in place.   I know you aren't as sold on Beane as you are McDermott and maybe part of that is because deep down you see how lucky Beane has been as well.   

[BarleyNY]

18 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

Yes things turned out OK.

 

But no one can say he wasn't worth a top 10 pick, let alone a pick in the second.

 

I can.  This is mostly hindsight talking.   There were a lot of fans enamored with Metcalf but NFL GMs were not nearly to the same extent.  He wasn’t a complete enough prospect for a top 10 pick - and it wasn’t close.  That’s why he was a day 2 pick, which is where he belonged.  That’s because for every 10 players like him - WRs that are great at some aspects and deficient at others - one works out like him, a few contribute and have nice careers and the rest flame out.

 

I thought that Metcalf might’ve been the pick instead of Ford and I definitely thought he’d be our pick in the 3rd if he lasted that long.  I was surprised that as he fell through round two that we didn’t make move up for him.  As a prospect he was well worth that, but his flaws and associated risk meant no good GM  was touching him close to the top 10.

[JY422]

The early celebration that cost the ‘hawks a TD a few weeks ago. Not good.
Ford and Oliver are ride-or-die Buffalo guys. Diggs is a pro-bowl caliber, team-first, win-at-all-costs player for the next 5+ years. 
well done McBeane. 

I wouldn’t change a thing.

[NewEra]

Beane isn’t a good Gm.  He’s just lucky.  
 

welcome back.  
 

the entire league passed on DK Metcalf.  
 

DeCosta picked Hollywood Brown over him.  
 

Ballard picked Paris Campbell over him

 

Veach picked Meccole Hardman over him

 

Roseman took Arcega-whiteside over him

 

Schneider, the guy who drafted him, took LJ Collier and Marquise Blair over him. 

 

There were legit reasons to pass on him.  His medical weren’t made up.  He finished one season out of 3.  He had foot and neck surgery in 2.5 years apart.  

 

Beane is lucky.  
 

we’re lucky that Beane is a good GM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[machine gun kelly]

This is the same argument about missing on Rodgers, Wilson, Watson, Gronk vs. Troup, Mahomes, amd so on and so on.  It’s a pointless discussion.  I sometimes wonder what’s a person’s agenda when they start these threads, and yes for the record, I love what I saw out of Metcalf last year.    It’s not fantasy football though and a GM has so many variable to consider when picking players where and using whatever capital.

[GunnerBill]

58 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

My concern is that they've not made the most of their luck............which looks like a first world problem when you are winning.    But they've wasted some assets with decisions where I just really thought they had bad processes in place.   I know you aren't as sold on Beane as you are McDermott and maybe part of that is because deep down you see how lucky Beane has been as well.   

 

Yea it is partly that. I mean Allen working out means my general level of soldness (not a word but definitely should be) on Beane increases but I think people kind of talk at times like his drafting is a proven hit and until Allen took his latest leap I am not sure any of them were really playing at a pro bowl type level. Finding guys who can play in the league is not really the threshold for me. Their two best draft picks of the regime aside from Allen are Tre White and Matt Milano  who were both picked when McDermott was quasi GM.

[machine gun kelly]

GB, agreed, and he’s been hurt, but Edmunds was a good find.  He’ll produce again once healthy.  It’s still a wait and see on Oliver.  He improved a lot throughout the year, but he’s no Aaron Donald.

[Coach Tuesday]

My biggest concern with Beane has always been whether he can sufficiently evaluate skill position players on offense, especially at the collegiate level.  I have been concerned that without help from an experienced set of coaches on that side of the ball he was flailing to evaluate talent.  
 

His initial personnel decisions and evaluations on offense, both in free agency/trades and the draft, both at WR and offensive line, were terrible.  Ford over Metcalf is an example but there are worse ones - Benjamin, Corey Coleman, whatever it was that the 2018 offensive line can be called, etc.  But he has now hit on the most important skill position in sports, and has hit on Singletary, Knox (at times), Smoke Brown, Diggs via trade, Beazers, and now Gabe Davis.  I am still concerned about the overall lack of speed but I suspect that’s a next offseason priority and we know they tried to trade up for Duvurnay (some would say he was lucky again in having to settle for Gabe Davis).  But Beane seems to be getting it, or at least has a more competent team of evaluators on that side of the ball.

[NewEra]

28 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

GB, agreed, and he’s been hurt, but Edmunds was a good find.  He’ll produce again once healthy.  It’s still a wait and see on Oliver.  He improved a lot throughout the year, but he’s no Aaron Donald.

To be fair, no one In the history of the nfl is aaron Donald 

[GunnerBill]

41 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

GB, agreed, and he’s been hurt, but Edmunds was a good find.  He’ll produce again once healthy.  It’s still a wait and see on Oliver.  He improved a lot throughout the year, but he’s no Aaron Donald.

 

I go the other way. I am encouraged where Oliver is. At this point call me concerned on Edmunds. He has played really poorly this season after a much improved 2019. I know he has the shoulder but we shouldn't forget he hurt that failing to make a tackle you have to make that resulted in a touchdown.

[Coach Tuesday]

28 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

People have been anointing Edmunds a great player which is nuts to me. He’s great in the passing game clogging passing lanes....outside of that he’s just not very good at anything else as a MLB. 

Supposedly he’s good at making the calls, but who really knows.

[Bobby Hooks]

21 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

This board just isnt the same without you spitting this sort of nonsensical fire. Im glad youre back!

Nonsensical? It made perfect sense to any reasonable human being. 

 

 

[auburnbillsbacker]

His short shuttle time had peopke on this board scared to death.  The thought process was that this would result in poor route running.  People loved him prior to the combine.

[Coach Tuesday]

1 hour ago, auburnbillsbacker said:

His short shuttle time had peopke on this board scared to death.  The thought process was that this would result in poor route running.  People loved him prior to the combine.

That was my concern with him - whether he could accelerate and change direction with enough suddenness.  Clearly he can.

[NewEra]

27 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

That was my concern with him - whether he could accelerate and change direction with enough suddenness.  Clearly he can.

Same, along with injury concerns.

[Buffalo Junction]

On 10/9/2020 at 4:27 PM, NewEra said:

He’s what I thought he’d be once I saw he was drafted to join Russell Wilson.  The one thing that I was worried about hasn’t happened yet.  He’s remained healthy after only being able to play 2 games, 12 games then 7 games in his 3 year college career. In the last 5 years, he’s had foot surgery (that caused him to miss all but 2 games his freshman year), neck surgery (which ended his junior year after 7 games) and a minor knee surgery before his rookie season. Has there ever been a body building WR that had a good nfl career?  His agility testing was scary bad.  At that position, poor agility is a bad trait to have  While there were obvious reason TO draft him, there were also obvious reasons NOT to draft him.  I think we did the right thing by drafting an OL with a nasty streak to help protect their franchise qb for the foreseeable future.  Our WRs are amazing.  I’m happy.  
 

I’d love to see how amazing he’d be with the jets 

I’m slightly amazed at how quickly folks have forgotten the medical red flags. I had no concerns about his talent, but I still wonder if he’ll break down early. That neck injury in particular probably took him off a few teams boards. 

[billspro]

On 10/9/2020 at 11:13 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

It made sense to go with Oliver when they did.

 

It made no sense to pass on Metcalf for Cody Ford.

 

Might have seen a big jump in Josh's passing LAST year had they taken DK.

 

Also Ford being used as a guard last summer helped push Wyatt Teller off the roster.........so there is that.

 

I understand people who say that is all hindsight but when you reach for needs early in the draft...........especially at positions of modest $ value like guard or even right tackle........sh*t happens.

 

At least he is better than Cyrus Koundjio I guess.

I was so mad when we passed on Metcalf. I was one of the few people that wanted him in round 1. He should have been the pick in round 2. 

[Codyny13]

I wondering if it was a good idea to go with Terrell Troup over Rob Gronkowski...🤷🏼‍♂️

[Albany,n.y.]

On 10/9/2020 at 2:39 PM, Uncle Joe said:

We got this Gabe Davis kid this year. I'm good.

I'm sure that some Jets fan is complaining that the Jets didn't take Davis before we did.  Every draft choice who outperforms his draft status has fans of every team complaining that they know more than the team's GM.   

 

[unbillievable]

Anyone ever try to go back 7 years (56 players) and try to fill a roster with a re-draft?

 

Even knowing exactly which players will be good in advance, the hardest spots to fill are OL/DL. While the easiest is WR.

 

 

[Albany,n.y.]

17 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I will say one thing that is astonishing about McBeane though.............they are incredibly lucky.

 

Not "residue of design" kinda' lucky.........their fortune wrt to personnel options just presenting themselves is amazing.

 

If you ranked QB's by their current trade value...........McBeane had the opportunity to draft 4 of the 5 most valuable players in the entire league!

 

Mahomes, Watson, Jackson and I think we can now put Allen in there.

 

They had very little margin for error.   Beane has had a bunch.  

 

Beane was in Carolina when Mahomes & Watson were drafted.  You act like you know more than everyone else & you don't even know who the GM was.  

[unbillievable]

7 minutes ago, Codyny13 said:

I wondering if it was a good idea to go with Terrell Troup over Rob Gronkowski...🤷🏼‍♂️

Even Aaron Hernandez would have been a better pick...

[Codyny13]

6 minutes ago, unbillievable said:

Even Aaron Hernandez would have been a better pick...

😂😂

[Albany,n.y.]

On 10/9/2020 at 3:32 PM, Charles Romes said:

Let’s face it they blew it by not taking Metcalf as did all other teams save one.  Could have been the freak measurable QB teamed up with the freak measurable WR for a decade. 

Seattle passed on him twice, so they weren't exactly the geniuses that some are making them out to be.  

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Beane was in Carolina when Mahomes & Watson were drafted.  You act like you know more than everyone else & you don't even know who the GM was.  

 

 

I used the term "McBeane" for the obvious reason that either one or both were in charge of the Bills personnel decisions since McD was hired.

 

But, fwiw I am not foolish enough to believe that Beane wasn't involved in the decision making of the Bills in the 2017 offseason.     Particularly during the draft........where the Panthers were openly convinced that McDermott had Carolina's board in hand.   

 

They were a package deal from the outset and frankly,  only a gullible idiot would think otherwise.  

 

[Thurman#1]

On 10/10/2020 at 3:09 AM, Houston's #1 Bills Fan said:

So, watching what D.K. Metcalf has done so far this season and listening to Russell Wilson, I was looking over the 2019 draft and was thinking about our picks. Metcalf went #64 - last player chosen in Round 2. We took Ed Oliver Round 1 and Cody Ford Round 2. 

 

Would we change anything? If we took Metcalf, probably not make the trade for Diggs? Is Metcalf more "valuable" than Oliver or Ford? Thoughts??

 

 

Oliver was the right call, without a doubt. I'd choose Metcalf over Ford in terms of talent. Not make the trade for Diggs last offseason? No, I think after Metcalf's first year you figure he's going to be good but not so good that you don't bring in Diggs if you have the chance. 

 

We can now see that in his second year Metcalf looks like he may be elite. With Metcalf playing the way he is now you probably figure you don't need Diggs. But last offseason I think you still make that trade. My opinion, anyway.

 

5 hours ago, Codyny13 said:

I wondering if it was a good idea to go with Terrell Troup over Rob Gronkowski...🤷🏼‍♂️

 

 

Probably not, but people forget that Troup was starting to look sensational till his back injury, and then he was urged to come back early from that and was never the same.

 

Troup was kicking butt, though. Remember that article about him, with all the quotes from Kyle Williams and people saying that in offseason workouts his second year he was just destroying people?

Edited October 11, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Doc Brown]

On 10/9/2020 at 2:26 PM, RoyBatty is alive said:

Why do people insist on doing this, repeatedly?  What is the purpose, self flagellation?

 

We go to to ANY draft and see what gems we missed.  

Well said.  These types of threads are useless.

 

[Albany,n.y.]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I used the term "McBeane" for the obvious reason that either one or both were in charge of the Bills personnel decisions since McD was hired.

 

But, fwiw I am not foolish enough to believe that Beane wasn't involved in the decision making of the Bills in the 2017 offseason.     Particularly during the draft........where the Panthers were openly convinced that McDermott had Carolina's board in hand.   

 

They were a package deal from the outset and frankly,  only a gullible idiot would think otherwise.  

 

If there was any reason to believe Beane was leaking Carolina's info to the Bills during the draft there would have been an investigation and the Bills would have been slapped HARD.  Yet, you who know all has this all figured out.

Please take off the tinfoil hat.  

[CapeBreton]

On 10/9/2020 at 3:36 PM, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Im pretty sure teams passed on him because they were convinced he had a steroid problem. It wasnt about talent.

I’ve heard this and it wouldn’t surprise me if this was the reason he fell in the draft. It was likely because of the picture he released with his teammates where he was absolutely jacked at the gym, like scary big. His combine numbers were also absolutely ridiculous besides the 3-cone, I don’t think he fell in the draft because he had a poor 3-cone time although that has become the narrative.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Albany,n.y. said:

If there was any reason to believe Beane was leaking Carolina's info to the Bills during the draft there would have been an investigation and the Bills would have been slapped HARD.  Yet, you who know all has this all figured out.

Please take off the tinfoil hat.  

 

 

Like I said........only a gullible idiot would think that McBeane weren't a package deal and that they didn't actively discuss the direction of the team that offseason.

 

The Panthers were upset that their draft information was compromised but the relationships in that organization were as tight as can be and they were happy for McDermott and Beane and certainly weren't going to sabotage them over some shared scouting info.   Every complex organization has secrets and Beane certainly knew all of them so retribution for that transgression likely wasn't even a consideration let alone asking the NFL for them to be "slapped HARD".

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Like I said........only a gullible idiot would think that McBeane weren't a package deal and that they didn't actively discuss the direction of the team that offseason.

 

The Panthers were upset that their draft information was compromised but the relationships in that organization were as tight as can be and they were happy for McDermott and Beane and certainly weren't going to sabotage them over some shared scouting info.   Every complex organization has secrets and Beane certainly knew all of them so retribution for that transgression likely wasn't even a consideration let alone asking the NFL for them to be "slapped HARD".

 

Yep. I absolutely believe that Jones and Dawkins were picked on the basis of Beane's intel in Carolina. Those were two positions the Panthers scouted hard that offseason and picked guys at both spots after us - Morton and Samuel. 

 

It is why we passed on the QBs. Nobody in Carolina had been scouting Quarterbacks that year so McDermott would have been picking blind.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

On 10/9/2020 at 3:09 PM, Joe in Winslow said:

 

I was possibly the number ONE proponent of Metcalf in that draft and would have taken him with our first pick.

 

hey I resent that. I would have taken him first overall and he’s my favorite player in the league haha

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. I absolutely believe that Jones and Dawkins were picked on the basis of Beane's intel in Carolina. Those were two positions the Panthers scouted hard that offseason and picked guys at both spots after us - Morton and Samuel. 

 

It is why we passed on the QBs. Nobody in Carolina had been scouting Quarterbacks that year so McDermott would have been picking blind.

 

 

What was hilarious was the selling and subsequent buying of the excuse that "the Bills just didn't have enough time to evaluate QB's" that offseason.

 

Whaley wasn't a good GM but it wasn't for a lack of effort from he and his staff wrt college scouting.

 

I've literally never heard another organization even attempt to make that ridiculous excuse for passing on a QB before..........it was just that McD didn't trust the evaluation work the Bills staff had done from June to January.   If anything Jan-May is far too much time to finish the evaluation of every prospect.

 

The other great sell was the theory that the Pegula Bills were ahead of the curve waiting to hire their new GM in May......and that a lot of teams were going to start doing that.🙄

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

What was hilarious was the selling and subsequent buying of the excuse that "the Bills just didn't have enough time to evaluate QB's" that offseason.

 

Whaley wasn't a good GM but it wasn't for a lack of effort from he and his staff wrt college scouting.

 

I've literally never heard another organization even attempt to make that ridiculous excuse for passing on a QB before..........it was just that McD didn't trust the evaluation work the Bills staff had done from June to January.   If anything Jan-May is far too much time to finish the evaluation of every prospect.

 

The other great sell was the theory that the Pegula Bills were ahead of the curve waiting to hire their new GM in May......and that a lot of teams were going to start doing that.🙄

 

 

Yea Whaley had a QB board it was just McDermott didn't have any faith in it. I think there was some element of strategy as well in the sense that they knew 2018 was supposed to be a stacked class but mainly he just wanted his own guy he trusted making the pick.

 

As for firings after the draft... there have been a few after ours - Kansas City, Houston, Jets although in very different circumstances. But has become slightly more common.

[BADOLBILZ]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea Whaley had a QB board it was just McDermott didn't have any faith in it. I think there was some element of strategy as well in the sense that they knew 2018 was supposed to be a stacked class but mainly he just wanted his own guy he trusted making the pick.

 

As for firings after the draft... there have been a few after ours - Kansas City, Houston, Jets although in very different circumstances. But has become slightly more common.

 

 

Oh firing scouting staffs and changing your GM from within after the draft isn't uncommon at all.  That kind of succession happens a lot.

 

Hiring a new coach in January and then waiting to bring in HIS general manager from another organization right after the draft is not.   That was being sold as 3D chess and really it's just something you'd expect the Jets to do..........but of course not until the incumbent GM spent a bunch of money on players the coach didn't want.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Oh firing scouting staffs and changing your GM from within after the draft isn't uncommon at all.  That kind of succession happens a lot.

 

Hiring a new coach in January and then waiting to bring in HIS general manager from another organization right after the draft is not.   That was being sold as 3D chess and really it's just something you'd expect the Jets to do..........but of course not until the incumbent GM spent a bunch of money on players the coach didn't want.

 

 

 

Yea at least the Bills took the power off Whaley first. The Jets let Maccagnan run free agency first. That was utterly nuts.