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The End of the Lamar Jackson Era


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He kind of reminds me of McNabb. McNabb started off as a decent passer but ised his legs and over time became a better passer when his legs got older. 

 

There is no doubt that Lamar is not the passer that many other QBs are. He can rely on his legs now. He will need to improve as a passer as he gets older. If he doesn't then he will probably have 7 or 8 good years imo. 

 

As for making him throw to the Outside: there have been a ton of quarterbacks that have had this issue. It's on Lamar to figure that out. I'm guessing they will practice that a lot until he gets decent at it.

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I've said since the beginning of the year that I'm not buying the Lamar Jackson hype, and I'm not buying the Kyler Murray hype, either.   I know they are really special athletes, and they're a couple

Say it with me..."We don't have to tear down Lamar, to prop Josh up".   Lamar is a phenomenal player and deserves his place at the "elite of the elite" table. Josh is well on his way to earn

Eh. I would be pissed if JA had a clunker and the rest of the league said, see! I told you he wasn't any good! I don't think we should do the same to LJ.    Tonight seemed as much about LJ h

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5 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 Do you think that changes this year or not?

 

The Bills had Brown and Beasley and if teams doubled Brown and kept middle day with pressure - Allen had little he could do.

 

I think like when Baltimore Blitzed KC - Allen this year has a few tricks to punish teams.  

 

I probably would - the touch passes have been on so far this year, but I'm not trying to give time to guys like diggs and brown to uncover.  

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19 minutes ago, CapeBreton said:

Not surprised that he is seeing some regression in his passing stats. Last year, his receivers were always WIDE OPEN and he made a lot of easy throws, absolutely no defenders in sight because defenses were selling out to stop the run. 

 

Not sure why Kyler Murray was mentioned, he looks like a solid QB all around.

 

Murray will probably do well enough long-term, but he got rekt by Patrician scheme yesterday. He was throwing the ball right to defenders, like he was seeing ghosts.

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56 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

Come on Shaw this is an overreaction. Jackson is still a very good QB who had a bad game and yes, needs to work on his pocket-passing. Some days you're the hammer and some days you're the nail. It was simply Lamar's turn to be the nail last night. It's not like the things you're saying are a new idea "hey let's force the kid to pass and limit his runs" is pretty much what every team who has played the Ravens has said and he's usually been able to get it done.

 

Not if you always had doubts and didn't buy into the hype.  

 

 

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13 minutes ago, wjag said:

Living in Maryland I get force fed a lot of Lamar.  When they get that rushing game going, which they do nearly every week, his passing goes way up. No surprise there.  That’s the NFL blueprint. He can throw it downfield.  He had 36 TDs last year. My take is he excels at the Brady to Gronk routes.  TEs down the middle.  He throws decent to his left.  It’s the right sideline throws he needs to polish.  He’s more comfortable throwing to TEs. Andrews is a big target.  He finds him.  Take away Ingram, Andrews and middle of the field and make it the Lamar show and you can defend him.  
 

What I notice about his play so far this year is that he isn’t in run first mode like he was in last year.  They are working on making his pocket awareness better.  
 

He needs to learn to play with some adversity.  Playing ahead has to be oodles of fun.  Making plays when the game is on the line rounds out the QB.  

 

Love the avatar. "Where's the KaBoom?"

 

I'm not sure about the "throws decent to his left" bit.  I think the book is, he can hit the short-intermediate stuff to the TE all over the field and he's "money" on the deep middle.  It's the >20 yd sideline routes he can struggle with a bit.  And even there, statistically he wasn't bad when he took those shots, it was just notable that he was more hesitant to take them as well as lower percentage when he did.

Nextgen stats Jackson chart from last season so you'll see I'm not blowing smoke.  I think if you looked at the 10-20 yd range in more depth you could see that it's clustered closer to the hashmarks and with TE YAC extending the pass.

image.thumb.png.263ecdef9bd0f6636e0f4a238402f2d9.png

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2 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

Tend to agree.  There were a few drops that were drive killers, and his overall pocket presence at the end of the game was just... panic.  

 

The big thing that I noticed was after those drops? He's hanging his head, his body language is poor.  I understand being on the field expecting greatness, but you have to exude confidence as a QB - a true field general.  Cam Newton to me is a good example of this - he had his MVP campaign and honestly became a bit of a diva.   

 

Guess who else is guilty of that big time this season..Deshaun Watson.

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Jackson is a very good, great at times QB.  His style has benefits and risks.  Until now the benefits side of the ledger outweighs the risk side.

 

Will that weighting continue?  It will be interesting when he eats up $40 million of cap - can he carry the team with his style with lesser players around him? 

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2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

There are examples further back, but most recently 2016 Cam Newton and 2017 Matt Ryan .  They said to say "Hi"

 

I guess this could open a can of worms debate about what "elite" and what "average" look like and I don't want to go there.  The point is there is plenty of precedent for an elite MVP QB to "regress to their mean", or to have an off year, the year after they win the title.  It takes a very rare human being to be an NFL QB in the first place, but it takes a rare NFL QB to not let their head get a bit turned by the Hype Train Express that follows the league MVP gig.

 

 

 

We're forever spoiled by Manning winning 5 MVPs.

Cam is arguably the best dual threat QB in the history of the league. Ryan won it in Year 9 and has always been good to great.

"Regress to the mean" will happen, but what's Lamar's mean? Time will tell.

42 total TDs was a great preview of what's to come.

 

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1 hour ago, Chemical said:

if you were in the GDT last night you would have seen how desperate Bills fans are to bury Lamar, and how happy they were when he didn’t connect with his receivers. Maybe it makes some people feel better for passing on him  Personally I think it’s transparent and pathetic. It’s borderline racist when he’s called a running back, but that label was never thrown around for Allen. 

 

Borderline racist? Really? Let's give that a rest, okay? Actual racism would appreciate it.

 

The truth is that the Bills base has more than its fair share of fans who insist the Bills forever screwed up by not grabbing Mahomes or Jackson, and taking the project cantaloupe farmer.  You couldn't be in a GDT or Shoutbox or even Twitter without Bills fans crying in their bowl of Flutie Flakes EVERY SINGLE TIME Josh overthrew a ball the past two years. By the time Mahomes was hoisting the Lombardi, the noise was embarrassingly ridiculous because while many of us would never confuse Allen for Mahomes, we could absolutely see Allen getting better.

 

So try and understand why some fans are happy to see their faith rewarded with the progress Josh has made. Yes, some overdo it a bit. Listen to talk sports radio and you know that's not something exclusive to Bills fans.

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9 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

Shaw's OP had some ridiculous (we can call them stupid) takes I've already highlighted, and I stand by them. 

 

they're a couple of the best running backs in the league

Mahomes stands in the pocket, makes decisions and makes throws.   Jackson doesn't. 

good as Mahomes arm is, he can't learn to throw like Josh.  

 

 


 

so debate the post, shut up, or be seen a fool for coming in just to say how stupid and beneath you this thread is. Pretty simple. 

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2 hours ago, Chemical said:

 

He had a perfect deep pass that was dropped in the end zone by Andrews that cost me my fantasy game this week. 

It wasn’t perfect. 
It was a foot and a half to side of where it should have been......?

At least, that is the crap we’ve had to listen to about Josh.

He also missed a bunch of open guys and threw passes ( MA seam pass) that were high.

Again, if it’s good for the goose ( JA) it’s good for the gander(LJ)

 

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Jackson does have limitations, but he’s still a helluva weapon.  He’s a lot like Vick was, not the best passer, but such a PITA to contain.  He’s dynamic and as long as he’s healthy, he’s a top 10 QB, not on passing, but in production. 
 

Murray is a helluva passer, totally different players, not going further into it other than his height can make it hard to see the field from the pocket.

 

Allen, through 3 games, looks like he is starting to be a real good QB.  He’s playing an awful lot like Big Ben at similar points in their career.   He’s still making some realllllllllly bad decisions in terms of ball security and sometimes the situational awareness isn’t the best, but overall, he looks like a force to be reckoned with.   If he puts a whole season together like this, you have a legitimate star/MVP candidate.  So far you have 3 games where he looks like a much improved/complete QB.  Trashing others to prop him up is silly.  He should either be good enough to generate his own hype or not.

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2 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

We're forever spoiled by Manning winning 5 MVPs.

Cam is arguably the best dual threat QB in the history of the league. Ryan won it in Year 9 and has always been good to great.

"Regress to the mean" will happen, but what's Lamar's mean? Time will tell.

42 total TDs was a great preview of what's to come.

 

My point was, you stated "There's no precedent for elite MVP QBs regressing to average, especially 22 year olds. "  My point is, there is plenty of precedent for MVP QB regressing to the NFL average the year following their award.  Example: Cam Newton, who passed for 35 TD and had 10 INTs his 2015 MVP season and 19 TD with 14 INTs in 2016.

 

I'm not going to argue whether Cam or someone else is the "best dual threat QB in the history of the league".  What shouldn't be argued is that Cam Newton is a talented QB and now that he seems to have recovered from his injuries, he's once again playing at a high level.  If he weren't playing for the Pats, I'd happily root for him to pull a Kurt Warner.

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Ok, time for a little fun:

 

Player A - 25 Games, 417/648 (64.4%), 4904 yards, 47/9, 2083 yards rushing at 5.9 ypa with 12 TDs and 24 fumbles

Player B -  23 Games, 379/634 (59.8%), 5011 yards, 31/11, 939 yards rushing at 6.1 ypa with 9 TDs and 18 fumbles

Player C - 28 Games, 532/849, 62.7%, 6403 yards, 36/17, 1304 yards rushing at 6.3 ypa with 7 TDs and 23 fumbles

 

 

 

 

Player A is Lamar Jackson, Player B is Colin Kaepernick through his first two seasons (not counting the year he sat) with the same OC (Roman) and player C is RG3 in his first two seasons.

 

Lamar is still TBD, but what I can tell you is subsequent years for the other two were BRUTAL.  IMO, both of them have much better arms than Lamar, too.  While I don't think the "ERA" is over, I do think there is a reason this style of offense and this style of QB play is not sought after...it is not sustainable and never really has been.  It remains to be seen whether Lamar will stay stagnant and become one of these afterthoughts, maybe evolve a little or at least have staying power like a Cam or Randall Cunningham, or eventually become a real QB like a Steve Young...

 

I have my own doubts, and it's mostly because when I watch him he just doesn't look like a natural thrower of the football. Eventually it is gonna hold him back.

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I think it is still to early to call. However, I am buying Allen > Jackson. But Jackson can still be pretty darn good. Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the NFL IMO. They are underrated. 

 

I also think Murray will ultimately be better than Jackson. So I guess I buy that Jackson is not the second coming. But I think he still sticks around and is a top 10 QB most seasons.

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11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Love the avatar. "Where's the KaBoom?"

 

I'm not sure about the "throws decent to his left" bit.  I think the book is, he can hit the short-intermediate stuff to the TE all over the field and he's "money" on the deep middle.  It's the >20 yd sideline routes he can struggle with a bit.  And even there, statistically he wasn't bad when he took those shots, it was just notable that he was more hesitant to take them as well as lower percentage when he did.

Nextgen stats Jackson chart from last season so you'll see I'm not blowing smoke.  I think if you looked at the 10-20 yd range in more depth you could see that it's clustered closer to the hashmarks and with TE YAC extending the pass.

image.thumb.png.263ecdef9bd0f6636e0f4a238402f2d9.png

I should have been clearer.  Decent to left on intermediate throws.  I think this chart bears out he throws better to left than right at the intermediate level.  Confirms what my eye at least thinks watching games.  This range is where the bulk of most throws in the NFL occur.  And confirms what everyone sees.  Brown or Andrews down the middle is where you need to defend.  Thanks for the chart. 

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