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The End of the Lamar Jackson Era


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9 hours ago, nucci said:

I think they said "Josh Allen" the same amount of times

No they didn’t they said Lamar Jackson name 14 times and only 12 times Josh Allen 

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I've said since the beginning of the year that I'm not buying the Lamar Jackson hype, and I'm not buying the Kyler Murray hype, either.   I know they are really special athletes, and they're a couple

Say it with me..."We don't have to tear down Lamar, to prop Josh up".   Lamar is a phenomenal player and deserves his place at the "elite of the elite" table. Josh is well on his way to earn

Eh. I would be pissed if JA had a clunker and the rest of the league said, see! I told you he wasn't any good! I don't think we should do the same to LJ.    Tonight seemed as much about LJ h

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Let's say a team signs a blocking TE and a pass catching TE. Same position, two different jobs. Because the job is different, you're looking for different attributes or skill sets from one than you are from the other. Sure, you'd love to have a guy who's great at both, but usually it's one or the other.

 

By the same token, a QB in a Greg Roman offense is there to do a different job than a QB who's asked to be a traditional pocket passer. If you're going to be a QB in a Greg Roman offense above all you need to be fast. Take EJ Manuel for example. When the Bills drafted him he was known as a raw prospect with great physical tools. But those physical tools were not quite good enough for a Greg Roman offense. Roman benched Manuel (4.65 in the 40) in favor of Tyrod Taylor (4.47 in the 40). After Roman found his way to Baltimore, did the Ravens make a major effort to acquire Taylor? No, they didn't. Instead they drafted Lamar Jackson. Why pursue a QB who ran a 4.47 in the 40 when you can draft a QB who ran a 4.34

 

Greg Roman has routinely been accused of holding his QBs back. If that's true, you'd expect QBs to do better after leaving his system. After Roman's empire fell in San Francisco, Colin Kaepernick entered a two year QB competition against Blaine Gabbert. Both QBs provided roughly similar levels of play over the course of those two years. After that, Gabbert signed a vet minimum deal with some other team, while Kaepernick exited the league. After leaving Roman's system in Buffalo, Tyrod Taylor was significantly outplayed by two rookie QBs: Baker Mayfield in Cleveland and Justin Herbert with the Los Angeles Chargers. Both Kaepernick and Taylor looked like starting quality QBs while living under Roman rule, and backup quality QBs after Roman. The same people who thought that Greg Roman had been holding Kaepernick and Taylor back are now claiming he's holding back Lamar Jackson.

 

The reality is Lamar is a billboard for Roman's offense. A billboard. Roman is an expert at using a QB's running ability to hide that QB's deficiencies as a passer. Roman's offense creates opportunities for easy completions--opportunities which don't exist for traditional pocket passing QBs, or even for running QBs in non-Roman offenses. If you were to put Jackson in a non-Roman offense--if you were to take those easy completions away from him--would he do better than Kaepernick or Taylor did in post-Roman offenses? Maybe. But that's speculative.

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6 hours ago, Arm of Harm said:

Let's say a team signs a blocking TE and a pass catching TE. Same position, two different jobs. Because the job is different, you're looking for different attributes or skill sets from one than you are from the other. Sure, you'd love to have a guy who's great at both, but usually it's one or the other.

 

By the same token, a QB in a Greg Roman offense is there to do a different job than a QB who's asked to be a traditional pocket passer. If you're going to be a QB in a Greg Roman offense above all you need to be fast. Take EJ Manuel for example. When the Bills drafted him he was known as a raw prospect with great physical tools. But those physical tools were not quite good enough for a Greg Roman offense. Roman benched Manuel (4.65 in the 40) in favor of Tyrod Taylor (4.47 in the 40). After Roman found his way to Baltimore, did the Ravens make a major effort to acquire Taylor? No, they didn't. Instead they drafted Lamar Jackson. Why pursue a QB who ran a 4.47 in the 40 when you can draft a QB who ran a 4.34

 

Greg Roman has routinely been accused of holding his QBs back. If that's true, you'd expect QBs to do better after leaving his system. After Roman's empire fell in San Francisco, Colin Kaepernick entered a two year QB competition against Blaine Gabbert. Both QBs provided roughly similar levels of play over the course of those two years. After that, Gabbert signed a vet minimum deal with some other team, while Kaepernick exited the league. After leaving Roman's system in Buffalo, Tyrod Taylor was significantly outplayed by two rookie QBs: Baker Mayfield in Cleveland and Justin Herbert with the Los Angeles Chargers. Both Kaepernick and Taylor looked like starting quality QBs while living under Roman rule, and backup quality QBs after Roman. The same people who thought that Greg Roman had been holding Kaepernick and Taylor back are now claiming he's holding back Lamar Jackson.

 

The reality is Lamar is a billboard for Roman's offense. A billboard. Roman is an expert at using a QB's running ability to hide that QB's deficiencies as a passer. Roman's offense creates opportunities for easy completions--opportunities which don't exist for traditional pocket passing QBs, or even for running QBs in non-Roman offenses. If you were to put Jackson in a non-Roman offense--if you were to take those easy completions away from him--would he do better than Kaepernick or Taylor did in post-Roman offenses? Maybe. But that's speculative.

Good comment. There's definitely something to this, but I'd have to say we're still in the "too soon to tell" phase.

- Tyrod: 6th round draft pick, never viewed as a starting QB prospect, turned into a perfectly acceptable starter (meaning somewhere around the 20th best in the NFL) by working under Roman's offense. No evidence yet that he would have similar success in a different offensive scheme, and I doubt we'll find out - for a run oriented QB, he's now past his prime

- Kaep: obviously thrived under Roman and struggled after. There's some mitigating factors there since the Niners as a whole entered a down phase, and of course we never got to see whether he could succeed with a different team

- Lamar: as you note, two ways of looking at it. Roman is using his skill set perfectly, and he probably wouldn't be so good in another scheme? Or Roman is, at this point, actually holding back his development as a passer? My guess is that both are correct. I think he'll be a success under other schemes (Daboll and Allen style, or maybe Kingsbury and Kyler style), and I think we'll find out soon enough.

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I skipped this thread for a bit.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30748801/john-harbaugh-defends-baltimore-ravens-run-heavy-offense

 

- Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh offered a defiant rebuttal Wednesday to the criticism about his offense, saying he is "not apologizing" for Lamar Jackson's style of play or the team's run-oriented game plan.

Harbaugh's forceful support came four days after the Ravens tied a franchise postseason record for fewest points scored in a 17-3 divisional playoff loss to the Buffalo Bills. Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman received heavy flak for what many saw as a simplistic passing attack.

 

ALSO - 

We don't want any Diva WR's so don't come asking 

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11 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

we still at this? lol

Apparently, we are.   I think this thread will be active until Jackson retires and his era is truly over.   Only ten years to go.  

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2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Apparently, we are.   I think this thread will be active until Jackson retires and his era is truly over.   Only ten years to go.  

 

It will save you the trouble of restarting the thread every September.

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23 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

I skipped this thread for a bit.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30748801/john-harbaugh-defends-baltimore-ravens-run-heavy-offense

 

- Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh offered a defiant rebuttal Wednesday to the criticism about his offense, saying he is "not apologizing" for Lamar Jackson's style of play or the team's run-oriented game plan.

Harbaugh's forceful support came four days after the Ravens tied a franchise postseason record for fewest points scored in a 17-3 divisional playoff loss to the Buffalo Bills. Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman received heavy flak for what many saw as a simplistic passing attack.

 

ALSO - 

We don't want any Diva WR's so don't come asking 

Diggs was supposed to be a diva.. one person once said most great WR are Diva in one form or another.. ITs the coaching and system that stops that from happening..  

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23 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Diggs was supposed to be a diva.. one person once said most great WR are Diva in one form or another.. ITs the coaching and system that stops that from happening..  

 

I still see an article here and there claiming Diggs will start acting up.  

It could happen, but I don[t see it.  Not the way these guys interact with each other. 

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I think the conversation is still a relevant one.  No, I’m not saying Lamar is “done” but we may have already witnessed his ceiling.  He was demonstrably worse as a passer this season — TD % went from 9.0 to 6.9 and INT % went from 1.5 to 2.4 in 25 fewer overall attempts.  Completion % dropped 1.7.  Yards/attempt dropped by 0.7.  Sacks increased by 6.  “But what about his rushing” you might ask.  17 fewer rushes, same number of TDs (7) but 15 fewer 1st downs and yards/rush dropped from 6.9 to 6.3.  2019 Lamar was better in nearly every sense of the word than 2020 Lamar.  So where is the development?

 

Baltimore can definitely win with Lamar, we’ve seen that.  He’s 30-7 as a starter in the regular season.  But unless there is additional development in the passing game they are a team limited by their QB.

 

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1 hour ago, eball said:

I think the conversation is still a relevant one.  No, I’m not saying Lamar is “done” but we may have already witnessed his ceiling.  He was demonstrably worse as a passer this season — TD % went from 9.0 to 6.9 and INT % went from 1.5 to 2.4 in 25 fewer overall attempts.  Completion % dropped 1.7.  Yards/attempt dropped by 0.7.  Sacks increased by 6.  “But what about his rushing” you might ask.  17 fewer rushes, same number of TDs (7) but 15 fewer 1st downs and yards/rush dropped from 6.9 to 6.3.  2019 Lamar was better in nearly every sense of the word than 2020 Lamar.  So where is the development?

 

Baltimore can definitely win with Lamar, we’ve seen that.  He’s 30-7 as a starter in the regular season.  But unless there is additional development in the passing game they are a team limited by their QB.

 

 

His passing numbers just weren't sustainable. Especially in terms of TD%. He was i think the only QB ever, or maybe Peyton did it once, to have over 30 or 35 TD's along with a 9.0+ TD%. He had like three games where he had 5 passing TD's on about 20 passing attempts. I just checked the stats from this last season, and Rodgers hit the 9.0+ TD% mark with 48 TD's. So I think that is three times in NFL history it has happened now. Rodgers might have two of those seasons unless the other is Peyton. Can't recall.

 

Mind you, Jackson's TD% of 6.9% this last year is still really good in terms of well above league average. But it is likely more along the lines of what we should expect out of him moving forward. Since they simply do not throw the ball as much, he should have a higher than league average TD% for his career.

 

I think he is still a very effective rusher though. YPA dropping from 6.9 to 6.3 isn't very significant. It also looked like the entire team including Lamar started to run the ball back to their 2019 form in the second half of the season.

 

That said, they had  a cupcake schedule in 2020. Not sure what their 2021 schedule is but I'd be shocked if it isn't considerably tougher. 

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4 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

His passing numbers just weren't sustainable. Especially in terms of TD%. He was i think the only QB ever, or maybe Peyton did it once, to have over 30 or 35 TD's along with a 9.0+ TD%. He had like three games where he had 5 passing TD's on about 20 passing attempts. I just checked the stats from this last season, and Rodgers hit the 9.0+ TD% mark with 48 TD's. So I think that is three times in NFL history it has happened now. Rodgers might have two of those seasons unless the other is Peyton. Can't recall.

 

Mind you, Jackson's TD% of 6.9% this last year is still really good in terms of well above league average. But it is likely more along the lines of what we should expect out of him moving forward. Since they simply do not throw the ball as much, he should have a higher than league average TD% for his career.

 

I think he is still a very effective rusher though. YPA dropping from 6.9 to 6.3 isn't very significant. It also looked like the entire team including Lamar started to run the ball back to their 2019 form in the second half of the season.

 

That said, they had  a cupcake schedule in 2020. Not sure what their 2021 schedule is but I'd be shocked if it isn't considerably tougher. 

 

Yeah, I think you are essentially agreeing with me.  2019 was likely as good as it will ever get with Lamar -- at least under Greg Roman.  Good enough to win a lot of regular season games against average (or worse) defenses, but probably not good enough to win a Super Bowl.

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1 hour ago, eball said:

 

Yeah, I think you are essentially agreeing with me.  2019 was likely as good as it will ever get with Lamar -- at least under Greg Roman.  Good enough to win a lot of regular season games against average (or worse) defenses, but probably not good enough to win a Super Bowl.

 

For the most part. I think we have seen the best season from him. But I think he and the Ravens will always be a threat to win a Super Bowl. Winning 11+ games every year is half the battle just to give yourself a shot. 

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5 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

For the most part. I think we have seen the best season from him. But I think he and the Ravens will always be a threat to win a Super Bowl. Winning 11+ games every year is half the battle just to give yourself a shot. 

 

1-3 in the playoffs (and 3 pts against a pretty mediocre Bills' D) says otherwise, unless they get that 2000 defense back.

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5 hours ago, eball said:

 

1-3 in the playoffs (and 3 pts against a pretty mediocre Bills' D) says otherwise, unless they get that 2000 defense back.

Boy if they had that defense with there running game scary 

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