The End of the Lamar Jackson Era

[Shaw66]

I've said since the beginning of the year that I'm not buying the Lamar Jackson hype, and I'm not buying the Kyler Murray hype, either.   I know they are really special athletes, and they're a couple of the best running backs in the league, but they limit their offenses.  

 

The problem with Jackson is related to something McDermott (and plenty of other coaches) say all the time:  You have to force the opponent to defend the entire field - sideline to sideline and line of scrimmage to the goal line.  The reason is simple:  If you can threaten to strike anyplace on the field, the defense has to spread out to defend all those places.  When the defense spreads out, they create holes for the offense to attack. 

 

You could see the problem almost immediately last night.  One on side of the ball was a team, the Chiefs, that is perhaps the best in the league at attacking the whole field.  They will hurt you anyplace you leave unprotected.  The Ravens started out playing the game no more than 30 yards downfield, and as the game progress, they didn't even threaten that deep.  The defense tightened and tightened.  Sure, Jackson kept getting himself some nice runs here and there, but they essentially give up the ability to get 100-200 passing downfield to get an extra 50 or 100 out of Jackson.  That's a bad trade.  

 

The other thing that was apparent is that to be a premier QB, you MUST be able to stand in the pocket and direct the attack.  You can't run an effective, all-over-the-field passing attack from outside the hash marks.  Why?  Because you can't threaten deep passes down the right side if your QB is standing outside the left hashmark.  (Well, you can if your QB is Josh Allen, but that's something else.)   Your QB has to be able to stand in, see the entire field, make decisions, and then make throws.   Jackson couldn't do that last night.  If he's going to make it, he has a lot of work to do as a pocket passer.   But even that may not be enough, because if you're going to feature your QB running the ball, you need your receiver to stay shallow to block for him.  So in your regular offense, your receivers aren't running deep routes, so the deep threat isn't there.  

 

It was all pretty obvious watching last night.   Mahomes stands in the pocket, makes decisions and makes throws.   Jackson doesn't.  Jackson will not be a premier QB if he doesn't learn to play that traditional QB game.  He's way, way behind Josh Allen in developing those skills.  Allen plays much more like Mahomes than like Jackson.  McBeane have always said he was going to be a pocket passer.  They've been working on making him one since he arrived in Buffalo.  Baltimore went down the other road, building an offense that plays to Jackson's strengths, but that is an offense that by definition is limited.  I think they're wasting their time.   Jackson will hurt some teams sometimes, he'll force your defense to play a different style than their used to, but at the end of the season, Baltimore's offense will limit their ability to win big games.  

 

Finally, to bring it back to Allen and the Bills, Mahomes wasn't doing anything last night that Allen doesn't do.  Allen has the better arm, clearly, Mahomes is more poised and more able to attack weaknesses consistently - that's clear too.  What's so encouraging is that Allen can learn to be a great field general, but good as Mahomes arm is, he can't learn to throw like Josh.  

 

Bills are heading down the right road. 

 

 

 

 

[Halloween Land]

Yeah the buzz will be about Allen vs Mahomes instead of Jackson vs Mahomes. Jackson is just an average thrower with limitations. 

[Bills fan since 87]

Excellent analysis,  I've been telling my friends this for a bit but not in so many well put words.

[Coach Tuesday]

The Ravens’ offense just isn’t designed to play from behind.  They can’t score a ton of points in a hurry, that’s not how they’re built.  Once they got in a hole last night it was all but over.

[TroutDog]

I agree, @Shaw66  I thought we did a fairly good job of holding Jackson back last year. It appeared to me, at the time, that the blueprint was now out there for all to see. 
 

He will definitely have his moments, but I’m taking Josh all day long and twice on Sunday. That’s not just my standard homer talk, either. 😃 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

Eh. I would be pissed if JA had a clunker and the rest of the league said, see! I told you he wasn't any good! I don't think we should do the same to LJ. 

 

Tonight seemed as much about LJ having an off night as anything. 

[Da webster guy]

35 yards passing at the end of the 1st half.  Yikes.

In fairness to Lamar, he doesn't have the kind of weapons we have or KC has.  

Josh TD to Diggs Sunday was a Lamar type throw with that wrist flick. He didnt have time or the space to wind up so he just whipped that forearm.  Awesome.

 

 

.

Edited September 29, 2020 by Da webster guy

[TheElectricCompany]

Say it with me..."We don't have to tear down Lamar, to prop Josh up".

 

Lamar is a phenomenal player and deserves his place at the "elite of the elite" table. Josh is well on his way to earning a seat. Both of these things can exist simultaneously.

 

Frankly, I find this take to be garbage. "The end of an era" because the MVP had one bad game?  Get outta here...

 

Shaw - you come for the king, you better not miss.

Edited September 29, 2020 by TheElectricCompany

[BillsVet]

I'll give the league's 2019 MVP more than 1 game to demonstrate he can no longer be dynamic. 

 

Josh is the better passer of the football right now and may always be.  What is funny are the people who pronounce something is so with regard to players, league trends after one or a handful of games.  It takes a much bigger sample size to identify what is happening across the NFL or how a young player does or does not progress.

[Golden Goat]

4 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

In fairness to Lamar, he doesn't have the kind of weapons we have or KC has.  

How good did it feel to type that? Was it weird? 

[LeviF]

ESPN: "iS tHIs tH3 neW bRAdY v mANniNG?

 

Chiefs: "lol no"

 

That said, Lamar is a phenomenal athlete and made the Chiefs D look like a pop warner squad with his legs at times last night.  And had a pretty nice TD pass.  Ravens O was just not in that game at all, Lamar included.  Takes more than one game to convince me that a league MVP has departed.

Edited September 29, 2020 by LeviF91

[H2o]

I was watching Mahomes last night and you see the things he does that separates him from Allen. When he runs he doesn't take hits. He slides or he gets out of bounds. When a play is busted he will throw the ball away and live to fight another down. A lot of the throws Allen is making this year is just like Mahomes, but he needs to preserve himself by not taking the hits when he can and throw the ball away when necessary because it's not the end of the world. This will be the next step in the maturation of Allen. 

 

On Lamar? He will be a QB in Baltimore for as long as his body holds up and as long as Roman is the OC. He will put up gaudy numbers at times. The fact of the matter remains the same, make him beat you with his arm by having to stay contained and forcing him to throw outside the numbers. He can't right now. Let him run and get some yards on the ground. It's not going to beat the good teams. Pressure him and force him to make quick reads while stepping up into the pocket. He can't beat you that way right now. Keep him from scrambling to his right because that's where most of his improvisational throws come from. We did a good job of containing him last year outside of the one busted coverage where Hurst got the TD. The Titans forced him to try to comeback using his arm and he faltered. The Chiefs last night followed a similar blueprint. Even with all of that, I still see Lamar and Josh as head and shoulders above the rest as the top 2 QB's from that draft class. They are definitely the two most exciting as well.  

[blitzboy54]

Holy Hell this is nonsense. He was the league MVP last year. He had one bad game and its the "end of an era"???  Maybe you're right but it's too early to make that kind of statement. My guess is you have been waiting for an opportunity to proclaim this and jumped at the first chance.  This post gets a giant eye roll.  Your stuff is usually excellent but yikes

Edited September 29, 2020 by blitzboy54

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

Just now, H2o said:

I was watching Mahomes last night and you see the things he does that separates him from Allen. When he runs he doesn't take hits. He slides or he gets out of bounds. When a play is busted he will throw the ball away and live to fight another down. A lot of the throws Allen is making this year is just like Mahomes, but he needs to preserve himself by not taking the hits when he can and throw the ball away when necessary because it's not the end of the world. This will be the next step in the maturation of Allen. 

 

On Lamar? He will be a QB in Baltimore for as long as his body holds up and as long as Roman is the OC. He will put up gaudy numbers at times. The fact of the matter remains the same, make him beat you with his arm by having to stay contained and forcing him to throw outside the numbers. He can't right now. Let him run and get some yards on the ground. It's not going to beat the good teams. Pressure him and force him to make quick reads while stepping up into the pocket. He can't beat you that way right now. Keep him from scrambling to his right because that's where most of his improvisational throws come from. We did a good job of containing him last year outside of the one busted coverage where Hurst got the TD. The Titans forced him to try to comeback using his arm and he faltered. The Chiefs last night followed a similar blueprint. Even with all of that, I still see Lamar and Josh as head and shoulders above the rest as the top 2 QB's from that draft class. They are definitely the two most exciting as well.  

 

So this is a still a thing, huh? I would have thought this would have gone away after Twitter just decimated this argument for the first two weeks of the season. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, TheElectricCompany said:

Say it with me..."We don't have to tear down Lamar, to prop Josh up".

Lamar is a phenomenal player and deserves his place at the "elite of the elite" table. Josh is well on his way to earning a seat. Both of these things can exist simultaneously.

Frankly, I find this take to be garbage and won't respond further. "The end of an era" because the MVP had one bad game?  Get outta here...

Shaw - you come for the king, don't miss.

 

Tend to agree.  There were a few drops that were drive killers, and his overall pocket presence at the end of the game was just... panic.  

 

The big thing that I noticed was after those drops? He's hanging his head, his body language is poor.  I understand being on the field expecting greatness, but you have to exude confidence as a QB - a true field general.  Cam Newton to me is a good example of this - he had his MVP campaign and honestly became a bit of a diva.   

[Numark3]

Agree with Jackson.  Disagree with Murray....he can actually throw the ball well

[ALLEN1QB]

I never bought into the Jackson hype way over rated. I do think that kid the Chargers have is going to be special. Reminds me so much of JA.

Edited September 29, 2020 by ALLEN-2-DIGGS-TD!!

[scribo]

Lamar Jackson's big tests this season will come against the Steelers. Can a division team solve him? If so, he's moving back into the pack. If Pitt cannot, the Raven's only division rival, then Jackson is going to stay in the limelight.

Edited September 29, 2020 by scribo

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Crayola64 said:

Agree with Jackson.  Disagree with Murray....he can actually throw the ball well

Agree with this take.

 

[H2o]

1 minute ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

So this is a still a thing, huh? I would have thought this would have gone away after Twitter just decimated this argument for the first two weeks of the season. 

Yep, still a thing if you actually watch him play. I know I've watched him play and he has been very, VERY, fortunate at times. 

[Captain Hindsight]

Its not the end of an era, but Lamar does need to be consistent throwing the ball to be successful long term. He had 35 yards at halftime. No chance to win a game if thats what you put up through the air

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

3 hours ago, H2o said:

Yep, still a thing if you actually watch him play. I know I've watched him play and he has been very, VERY, fortunate at times. 

 

Its not a thing because the data shows that a QB is more likely to get hurt in the pocked than on the run. This includes in JA's case where the QB takes hits. Especially since the only times JA has ever been injured, he has been in the pocket.  

Edited September 29, 2020 by JoshAllenHasBigHands

[McBean]

Awesome post.

 

Been saying this for 3 years. He's a RB playing QB. Eliminate the TE's and he's toast. He can't throw to the outside and he doesn't read defenses.

 

He's a flash in the pan. Long term what he's doing doesn't work. League is figuring him out fast and it's going to go downhill.

 

The real stars are Mahomes and Allen.

 

 

[Mrbojanglezs]

Lamar is a talented player but he is not the type of qb that I think can carry a team once he gets paid and the talent around him decreases.

 

I think the media hyped him up a lot. It's funny listening to how the media reacts to the bad throws that Lamar and even Mahomes makes during a game compared to when Josh makes a bad throw

[Steve O]

16 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

35 yards passing at the end of the 1st half.  Yikes. 

In fairness to Lamar, he doesn't have the kind of weapons we have or KC has.  

Josh TD to Diggs Sunday was a Lamar type throw with that wrist flick. He didnt have time or the space to wind up so he just whipped that forearm.  Awesome.

 

 

.

This was one of Shaw's points. Baltimore has built their offense around  Jackson's strengths rather than his weaknesses. It has worked out pretty well for them but it has limitations. If they tried to build an offense by giving him the weapons we have it wouldn't have the same results. Look at how we tried to give EJ weapons...Woods, Watkins, Goodwin. They didn't look so good with us but they're all having pretty good success now.

Edited September 29, 2020 by Steve O

[Bleedbuffaloblue]

Totally agree with your assessment Shaw. Kept seeing all the graphics and stuff during the pregame show about how this Mahomes versus Jackson duel will be the marquee matchup for years to come. I have serious doubts about that for the same reasons you described. IMO, by the time the dust settles on the 2020 season it could very well be the Mahomes vs. Allen matchup everyone will be talking about. The upcoming Thursday Night game on October 15th could go a long way to the start of that thinking.

[H2o]

1 minute ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Its not a think because the data shows that a QB is more likely to get hurt in the pocked than on the run. This includes in JA's case where the QB takes hits. Especially since the only times JA has ever been injured, he has been in the pocket.  

Uhhhh, NE last year? That definitely wasn't in the pocket. Run out of bounds. Slide. Every time I have seen him do it he gets the ole "atta boy Josh" from me. It saves punishment and it also keeps the defense from being able to strip the ball. Throwing the ball away when the opportunity presents itself also keeps him from taking those horrible sacks at times or hanging the ball up for grabs. He is doing better with both, but there are still times that make you hold your breath out there. 

[bmur66]

Lamar Jackson? Meh.

On another note, Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs is going to be a heck of a game

[Rochesterfan]

12 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

35 yards passing at the end of the 1st half.  Yikes.

In fairness to Lamar, he doesn't have the kind of weapons we have or KC has.  

Josh TD to Diggs Sunday was a Lamar type throw with that wrist flick. He didnt have time or the space to wind up so he just whipped that forearm.  Awesome.

 

 

.

 

To be fair though - they have specifically chosen they players for their offense.  It is not that he doesn’t have weapons - the Ravens looked at Jackson’s strengths and brought people to enhance those strengths.  
 

Rather than go for speed and WR talent - they recognized that Jackson was good at motion and hitting big targets between the hashes - so they focused on TEs that could block and give him the targets he needs.

 

I look back to last year Buffalo versus Baltimore and I see a Baltimore team that could do next to nothing on offense, but the Bills offense was so out of sync - they could not capitalize and get the lead to put that pressure on the Ravens.

 

If the Bills used that same Defense with this years offense - it would have looked more like what the Chiefs did to the Ravens.

[BillsFanSD]

12 minutes ago, H2o said:

Even with all of that, I still see Lamar and Josh as head and shoulders above the rest as the top 2 QB's from that draft class. They are definitely the two most exciting as well.  

I agree with you, but think about how wild that is.  If I told you in 2018, before the draft, than one of the five first-round QBs would be a total bust who appeared in only a handful of NFL games, we all would have assumed that Mr. Bust would have been either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, right?  Those two guys were the two rawest prospects by far out of that draft class.  But as it turned out those are the only two clear "hits" out of that class.  I'd say the jury's still out on Mayfield, Darnold is looking more like a "miss" with each passing week (playing for the Jets doesn't help), and we all know what happened to Wrong Josh.  

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

3 minutes ago, H2o said:

Uhhhh, NE last year? That definitely wasn't in the pocket. Run out of bounds. Slide. Every time I have seen him do it he gets the ole "atta boy Josh" from me. It saves punishment and it also keeps the defense from being able to strip the ball. Throwing the ball away when the opportunity presents itself also keeps him from taking those horrible sacks at times or hanging the ball up for grabs. He is doing better with both, but there are still times that make you hold your breath out there. 

 

Oh yeah, that is true.  My bad. That said, its agree to disagree.  Josh's greatest asset, beside just his arm, is his ability to keep plays alive; his ability to run and get the extra yards; his ability to not be tackled. The risk is minimal, and playing to avoid it is antiquated. 

[MarlinTheMagician]

Lamar is really good.  I like Allen better.

[Lurker]

I disagree that its the end of his era.   Too soon for that, given what he does against every team not named the Chiefs.    What I do agree with is that Roman's offensive scheme is a dead end.   

 

It's not flexible enough and can't come back from multi-point deficits, as the MNF team pointed out many times.   It's too focused on the TEs and the middle of the field, which KC took away last night.   It's a one-read, gun it-or-run it system, rather than the smorgasbord of options Mahones has at his disposal.   Maybe its designed that way due to Jackson's (in)ability to quickly process like Mahones.    But I'm not willing to make that call yet.

 

The other thing is that while Hollywood Brown is a great WR, he appears to be somewhat straight-linish and perhaps limited in the routes he excells at.   Hence, a predictable offense that wins through physicality rather than scheme.    

 

Harbaugh needs to tear it up and get some weapons to increase Jackson's options.   A RB like Edwards-Helaire would have been a perfect fit for that, IMO.   

 

Just as Josh has blossomed with more weapons, Jackson could too if the Ravens would get over their fixation with "power forward" football and go with what the NFL has become today...speed, creativity and having more weapons than the defense can account for...

 

 

 

[Freddie's Dead]

22 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

Shaw - you come for the king, you better not miss.

 

Awesome!!  My favorite Wire quote, from Omar Little:

 

[bouds]

What's funny is that there are opposition fans that feel the same exact way about Josh Allen.

 

Long way to go in the 2020 season.  

 

 

[Jerboski]

22 minutes ago, Crayola64 said:

Agree with Jackson.  Disagree with Murray....he can actually throw the ball well

This.. murray can make any throw the league requires 

[Rc2catch]

I can agree Lamar was never sustaining an MVP level of play with their style. Let’s not forget they were killing teams last year and padding his stats like crazy. All the stat lovers immediately point out how many passing touchdowns he had yet fail to mention how many were from like 1 yard out which is obviously impossible to defend him. They run 70 yards down the field then play action from a yard out and he gets a passing touchdown. Still counts but skews this perception he’s a good passer. He’s not about to be run out of the league or anything but I think is MVP days might be numbered. Roman generally is ineffective after year 2. 
Kyler I’m not so sure of yet, he’s very limited as a passer because of his height. They have to move the pocket for him to see which puts him on the move virtually every play. I also can’t have too much faith in a quarterback who is a pro and still cannot take a snap from under center. Week 1, end of game... To take the knee he takes the snap from shotgun. I only know cause my nephew has him on fantasy football and was highly upset he lost 10 yards rushing on 2 kneel downs and sent me video of Kyler taking a knee from shotgun. Weird. 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

if you were in the GDT last night you would have seen how desperate Bills fans are to bury Lamar, and how happy they were when he didn’t connect with his receivers. Maybe it makes some people feel better for passing on him  Personally I think it’s transparent and pathetic. It’s borderline racist when he’s called a running back, but that label was never thrown around for Allen. 
 

He had a perfect deep pass that was dropped in the end zone by Andrews that cost me my fantasy game this week. 
 

18 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

Its not the end of an era, but Lamar does need to be consistent throwing the ball to be successful long term. He had 35 yards at halftime. No chance to win a game if thats what you put up through the air

 

they were running the ball early. Then had a kickoff returned for a td. His passing was off in the first half but he also didn’t have many opportunities. 

[Bangarang]

Imagine not only saying this but actually believing it.

 

Bills fans would lose their minds if Allen has a bad game and people start saying “See! I told you he wasn’t that good!”

 

One game isn’t the end all be all.

[H2o]

3 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Oh yeah, that is true.  My bad. That said, its agree to disagree.  Josh's greatest asset, beside just his arm, is his ability to keep plays alive; his ability to run and get the extra yards; his ability to not be tackled. The risk is minimal, and playing to avoid it is antiquated. 

I understand what you are getting at, and I do agree with you to an extent, but sometimes he is going to have to realize you can't make a play every time the ball is in your hands. Some times you just have to live to fight another down, especially in the playoffs because that's when the stakes are the highest. He has been fantastic at bailing himself out thus far by making big play after big play, but it's also a testament to the guys we have in place around him stepping up as well. I've been all in on Allen since I first saw him step onto the field, saw the presence he had out there, and the energy he brought to this team as a whole. His growth that we have all witnessed at the QB position has been nothing short of amazing. Now it's just the little things that can put him right beside Mahomes in that convo for being the best QB in the league imo.