Bill Barnwell on Josh Allen

[Thurman#1]

18 hours ago, Reader said:

 

2015 Tyrod is underrated on this board.

 

 

2015 Tyrod was sensational for his first seven games and then for the last seven was almost precisely what he would turn out to be ... he was already 2016 and 2017 Tyrod for that last half of the year in 2015.

 

In game 8, Belichick showed how to defend him and he was never as effective again. His passer rating those last seven games of 2015 were within a point and a half of his career. He went from one game out of the first seven under a 91 passer rating (which is really really good) to four games out of seven below 83 (which is just not good).

 

His last two years with the Bills his passer rating was 89. And that's what he was in the last half of 2015 too.

[eball]

11 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

The whole "history of leading the team back in the 4th" can be a bit overblown.

 

The Bills were either in control all game or the game was close as the offense struggled throughout.... much like Mark Sanchez and his "game winning 4th quarter comebacks." 

 

Context matters. I recall in December of 2016 against the Dolphins with playoffs on the line Tyrod bringing the team back down 11 in the 4th quarter to take a 3 point lead, before the defense blew it to go to overtime. Tyrod then led another drive in OT to put the team in position to win again only to have Carpenter miss the chip shot  field goal. 

 

Didnt matter. Tyrod wasn't good enough consistently.

 

 

 

It was a simple yes or no question.  I see you’re incapable of answering it.

[Thurman#1]

15 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Fairly decent article I think.  Stats between him and TT are similar but Bills fans know the playing styles are completely different.  I think he states the obvious that Josh needs to continue his improvement but details specifics on that.  So overall pretty good.

 

One comment on the DiMarco pass though.  Allen gets ragged on continually for that throw, but the bottom line is DiMarco had it in his hands.  He holds on we win.  The throw may not have been the first choice, but the throw was there.

 

 

DiMarco got one hand on it and it was raked out. That throw was there when Josh threw but there was no way to get it there before the safety arrived while still making it over the coverage.

 

Still bothers me that he had two guys open, Brown for a first and Singletary probably for a first and certainly for 10 yards or so on a 2nd and 12 play.

 

The Bills as a team weren't good enough but the same can be said of Allen.

[Chaos]

19 hours ago, eball said:

OH. MY. GOD.  Please let this season happen so these articles will stop.  Everybody knows this is Allen's make-it-or-break-it season to show he is going to be "the man."  EVERYBODY.  How many "the Bills will only go as far as Josh Allen takes them" articles do we need?

This season may or may not clear up whether or not he is the man. (I already think he is).  But if he ends up statistically the 15th best QB in the league and the Bills win a playoff game, half the people on this board will anoint him QB for life. The other half will be certain he is holding us back from winning the Super Bowl. 

[BarleyNY]

19 hours ago, Reader said:

 

2015 Tyrod is underrated on this board.

That is correct at this time, but he was overrated on this board by most posters nearly the whole time he was here.  If Allen doesn’t improve then I suspect he’ll get much the same treatment.

[BillsFan2313]

That dude has a serious crush on Tyrod. It was crickets after the Jax playoff game, until this article. Barnwell is a joke. 

[Nextmanup]

On 7/1/2020 at 11:46 AM, EasternOHBillsFan said:

I'm not judging Allen until we see him with the amazing WR talent we have now with Diggs WR1. All of these stats are not relevant until they are all playing together.

This is a common argument in support of poor QB performance.

 

I never understood it.  

 

The problem is the WRs can't throw the ball to themselves.

 

Allen's deficiencies will not be rectified by a better set of hands or a better route runner.

 

They can only be rectified by a better QB.

 

 

 

[thebandit27]

31 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

This is a common argument in support of poor QB performance.

 

I never understood it.  

 

The problem is the WRs can't throw the ball to themselves.

 

Allen's deficiencies will not be rectified by a better set of hands or a better route runner.

 

They can only be rectified by a better QB.

 

 

 

You really don’t believe that leading the NFL in dropped passes affected the offense?

 

I mean, drops basically cost the team a 21-0 lead in the playoffs. 
 

It absolutely matters.

[ILBillsfan]

The comparison to TT is silly.  I know last year when it was third and long it has been a long time that I felt this comfortable that the Bills actually had a QB that would convert those.  It was nice to start to think that the Bills offense had a chance in those situations.

[eball]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Of course I’d prefer it, but let’s not sit here and act like Tyrod never had “4th quarter comebacks”.... despite years when the defense was complete trash. 

So one comeback in a game the Bills list counts the same as the 6 or 7 wins Josh has led late in his first two seasons?

[NewEra]

16 hours ago, eball said:

 

It was a simple yes or no question.  I see you’re incapable of answering it.

Yes or no doesn’t allow for an agenda

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

What agenda?

 

I like Allen but it’s a bogus stat that doesn’t even scratch the surface of measuring consistent success for a QB in the league. Prime example being Mark Sanchez. I recall Byron Leftwhich being up there in “4th quarter comebacks”. He struggled the rest of the game though... and rest of his career.

Come on man.  You can’t sit here and tell me honestly, that you don’t have much more

confidence in Josh Allen than Tyrod with the ball

in his hand on the final drove to win the game.   And you also can’t sit here and tell

me that that doesn’t matter.  It’s ridiculous 

[GoBills808]

I’d encourage everyone to give the article in question a close read. IMO Barnwell’s analysis does not pass muster.

[GunnerBill]

I was nodding along through the first bit of Barnwell's article... and then he seemed to just pluck the Tyrod Taylor comparison from nowhere. There was precisely one Josh Allen performance last year that was Tyrodish - @ Browns when he was holding the ball an age and not seeing or not trusting himself to throw to open receivers. It was his worst game of the year. It was after that game that McDermott issued his "play fearless" rallying cry. I think what had happened is after the turnovers early the Bills coaches had preached ball security to Allen and the Cleveland game was the one where he took that message too literally and played scared. The best thing about Allen is his willingness to take risks and play a bit of heroball. Look at most of the best Quarterbacks in the NFL currently..... Mahomes, Wilson, Watson, Jackson (not sold he belongs with the other 3 but he is the MVP)... they all play a bit of heroball when the play breaks down. I think the Bills hierarchy realised after Cleveland that they were at risk of coaching that out of Josh and adjusted. I'd like the training wheels off even more in 2020. Put the ball in the kid's hand, but the game on his back and let him throw - that is the difference between Josh and Tyrod. With Tyrod you had no chance of winning that way. With Josh I think it improves your odds. Just hope there is a season for him to demonstrate that.

Edited July 3, 2020 by GunnerBill

[Gugny]

27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I was nodding along through the first bit of Barnwell's article... and then he seemed to just pluck the Tyrod Taylor comparison from nowhere. There was precisely one Josh Allen performance last year that was Tyrodish - @ Browns when he was holding the ball an age and not seeing or not trusting himself to throw to open receivers. It was his worst game of the year. It was after that game that McDermott issued his "play fearless" rallying cry. I think what had happened is after the turnovers early the Bills coaches had preached ball security to Allen and the Cleveland game was the one where he took that message too literally and played scared. The best thing about Allen is his willingness to take risks and play a bit of heroball. Look at most of the best Quarterbacks in the NFL currently..... Mahomes, Wilson, Watson, Jackson (not sold he belongs with the other 3 but he is the MVP)... they all play a bit of heroball when the play breaks down. I think the Bills hierarchy realised after Cleveland that they were at risk of coaching that out of Josh and adjusted. I'd like the training wheels off even more in 2020. Put the ball in the kid's hand, but the game on his back and let him throw - that is the difference between Josh and Tyrod. With Tyrod you had no chance of winning that way. With Josh I think it improves your odds. Just hope there is a season for him to demonstrate that.

 

I remember that game and saying the performance was "Tyrod-esque."

 

And I agree 100% ... let the kid play his game.  Especially with the long ball.  Think long, think wrong.  Just wing that ***** like you want to, Josh.

[Wagon Circler]

On 7/1/2020 at 12:12 PM, costrovs said:

Personally, I wouldn't say say this is a make or break year for Allen.

The playoff game? A 23 year old coming from a small college, in a small town to the NFL playoffs in his 2nd year. He was nervous. He looked just as nervous as he did the first half of his rookie season. No big deal. He's a smart dude, He'll get over the nerves either this season or the next one.

 

Accuracy- Well jeez, he could be like every other QB out there and dump the ball off 10+ times a game instead of scrambling for 10+ yards.(but c'mon, we all really enjoy watching Allen run) 

 

Deep Pass- He can throw deep. It's a threat every time he's on the field. Defenses know that. Gone are the days of Defenses stacking 9 players at the line.

 

He's the best QB we've had in YEARS.

Personally, he's the most enjoyable QB to watch since pre concussion Edwards.

 

Pre-concussion Edwards is underrated on this board. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

I don’t know how “Football Smart” Barnwell is 

he’s reviewed all the young uns. 
 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29402013/is-sam-darnold-last-chance-progress-report-jets-qb-expect-2020
 

Sams #s over the last 2 seasons have been horrid. Is his talent salvageable?  

Next

MVP and 0-2 in the playoffs. Is there reason to worry?

 

Can Baker be fixed?
 

he apologizes to Rosen for No Comments 

 

So all in all. The supposed worst of the bunch is Josh who seems to be getting the better review.  
 

Edited July 5, 2020 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[Ayjent]

When Barnwell wrote an article about how there is no such thing as momentum in sports a few years ago, it was clear to me that he never played sports and/or he was conveniently overlooking it for arguments sake to let stats explain a perceived phenomenon.  Whatever his rationale, it was the type of thing that made me view him as someone that is interesting to read but no more valuable than used toilet paper.  Stats can lack full context on their own, and as such any conclusions that don’t fully explain the context are useless and misleading.

 

While there are certainly some statistical similarities between Tyrod and Josh.  They are incredibly different players in different systems with much different talent surrounding them.  Tyrod had a very talented team on offense around him with two OCs that knew how to utilize his strengths.  I would think that a Roman would do wonders with Josh too, not to bag on Daboll, but he would be just as effective as Lamar Jackson in Lamar Jackson’s situation.  Josh didn’t have that luxury, but I think he will be better for it down the line as he matures into a better passer.  I think you have seen Lamar Jackson’s ceiling and that’s not a knock on Jackson -he is damn good.   But so is Josh and I was no fan of the pick and thought the Bills were dumb for trading Tyrod with nothing but question marks and a crappy career backup in McCarron.  I think there is a high probability Josh is a star for a long time.

[Scott7975]

I liked Tyrod Taylor but 3rd and long I am taking Josh Allen all day everyday.  Josh makes plays and gets first downs.  Taylor checked it down short of the sticks far too often.

[C.Biscuit97]

On 7/5/2020 at 8:18 AM, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

I don’t know how “Football Smart” Barnwell is 

he’s reviewed all the young uns. 
 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29402013/is-sam-darnold-last-chance-progress-report-jets-qb-expect-2020
 

Sams #s over the last 2 seasons have been horrid. Is his talent salvageable?  

Next

MVP and 0-2 in the playoffs. Is there reason to worry?

 

Can Baker be fixed?
 

he apologizes to Rosen for No Comments 

 

So all in all. The supposed worst of the bunch is Josh who seems to be getting the better review.  
 

Darnold’s numbers have been horrid?  He essentially has the same passing stats as Allen.

19 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

I liked Tyrod Taylor but 3rd and long I am taking Josh Allen all day everyday.  Josh makes plays and gets first downs.  Taylor checked it down short of the sticks far too often.

We had a better 3rd down conversion rate with Tyrod.  Do I think Allen lays it all on the line and will play more aggressively than Tyrod? Sure.  Tyrod was conservative.  But the end result hasn’t been that much different.  Now, with the weapons he has, Allen needs to be a guy who wins games.  Not in the 4th quarter after scoring 10 points all game. Like dominate from the jump, get a big lead, so the defense can tee off and we can blow teams out.  I still wish we had a dominant pass rusher but this defense is SB caliber.  But the offense has a ways to go. 

[Dr.Sack]

Josh Allen is either going to improve, regress or flatline. Long term he only sticks around if he improves. As a betting man I say there’s a greater chance he continues the upward trajectory. The year 1 to year 2 jump was notable. Allen seemed more poised and confident operating in the pocket. The next step in his evolution is harnessing his rocket arm and connecting more on deep balls, while taking the Brady approach and carving teams up by taking what the defense gives him. Allen has the size, arm talent and brains to succeed. Things should continue to slow down, and process faster. Expect to see another big jump.

Edited July 8, 2020 by Dr.Sack

[eball]

6 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Josh Allen is either going to improve, regress or flatline. Long term he only sticks around if he improves. As a betting man I say there’s a greater chance he continues the upward trajectory. The year 1 to year 2 jump was notable. Allen seemed more poised and confident operating in the pocket. The next step in his evolution is harnessing his rocket arm and connecting more on deep balls, while taking the Brady approach and carving teams up by taking what the defense gives him. Allen has the size, arm talent and brains to succeed. Things should continue to slow down, and process faster. Expect to see another big jump.

 

I don't understand why more "expert" prognostications don't follow this line of thinking.  It's logical.  Nothing about Allen suggests he has "reached his peak" or will regress.  Nothing.

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, eball said:

 

I don't understand why more "expert" prognostications don't follow this line of thinking.  It's logical.  Nothing about Allen suggests he has "reached his peak" or will regress.  Nothing.

I will say this with all respect and it’s been my concern all along.  When has Allen ever been a dominant player on any level of football?  We are expecting a guy playing the hardest position in professional sports to reach a level in the Nfl that he has never reached in the MWC, Junior college, or high school?

 

If you are a dominant college player, it means nothing for nfl success.  However how many qbs, who didn’t make 1st or 2nd team in a low level college conference, have ever become nfl stars?  Honestly, can anyone name one?  Tony Romo was player of the year. Jimmy G was too and broke Romo’s records.  Wentz won a national championship.  
 

I really do like Allen’s attitude.  But he will be the exception to every rule if he becomes a franchise guy.  

[eball]

7 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I will say this with all respect and it’s been my concern all along.  When has Allen ever been a dominant player on any level of football?  We are expecting a guy playing the hardest position in professional sports to reach a level in the Nfl that he has never reached in the MWC, Junior college, or high school?

 

If you are a dominant college player, it means nothing for nfl success.  However how many qbs, who didn’t make 1st or 2nd team in a low level college conference, have ever become nfl stars?  Honestly, can anyone name one?  Tony Romo was player of the year. Jimmy G was too and broke Romo’s records.  Wentz won a national championship.  
 

I really do like Allen’s attitude.  But he will be the exception to every rule if he becomes a franchise guy.  

 

Ok, here we go again.  Tell me why, based upon what you've seen from Allen, that you believe he has reached his peak as an NFL QB.  I don't care what his college stats were or what QBs before him did.  Those stats are irrelevant.  What have you seen that tells you he won't continue to get better?

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Ok, here we go again.  Tell me why, based upon what you've seen from Allen, that you believe he has reached his peak as an NFL QB.  I don't care what his college stats were or what QBs before him did.  Those stats are irrelevant.  What have you seen that tells you he won't continue to get better?

Why didn’t Losman get better?  Why didn’t EJ? Why didn’t Tribusky? Why didn’t a million other guys?  
 

If you bet on things, you try to make the safest bets possible.  With respect, answer my question.  What qb had a worse college resume of a 1st round draft pick than Allen did (in the last 7 years because football is completely different now)?  Honestly, I can’t think of one.  My concern since he was drafted was we want him to be a better player in the nfl than in the MWC.  That seems an extremely risky bet.  Imo, the team is good enough that we made the playoffs with C level qb play.  I don’t want C level qb play from the highest drafted qb in franchise history.

 

this year, hopefully, I don’t want to hear about 4th quarter comebacks.  I want Allen to light it up in the first 3 quarters so it’s a blowout in the 4th.  

[eball]

@C.Biscuit97 why are you hung up on what Allen did in college and not staying on point with what he has done most recently?  I don't understand this logic at all.  He improved significantly from Y1 to Y2 in the NFL and, again, everything logical suggests he is on an upward climb.  We're not talking about somebody with questionable skills or athletic traits that we're hoping somehow makes it.  We're talking about a guy who was raw out of college with insane talent and a great work ethic simply continuing to improve.  That's a "risky" bet?

[loyal2dagame]

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

Ok, here we go again.  Tell me why, based upon what you've seen from Allen, that you believe he has reached his peak as an NFL QB.  I don't care what his college stats were or what QBs before him did.  Those stats are irrelevant.  What have you seen that tells you he won't continue to get better?

 

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Why didn’t Losman get better?  Why didn’t EJ? Why didn’t Tribusky? Why didn’t a million other guys?  
 

If you bet on things, you try to make the safest bets possible.  With respect, answer my question.  What qb had a worse college resume of a 1st round draft pick than Allen did (in the last 7 years because football is completely different now)?  Honestly, I can’t think of one.  My concern since he was drafted was we want him to be a better player in the nfl than in the MWC.  That seems an extremely risky bet.  Imo, the team is good enough that we made the playoffs with C level qb play.  I don’t want C level qb play from the highest drafted qb in franchise history.

 

this year, hopefully, I don’t want to hear about 4th quarter comebacks.  I want Allen to light it up in the first 3 quarters so it’s a blowout in the 4th.  

 

One thing I'll give to Biscuit,  he's been sticking to his guns on Allen for quite a while.  While i don't agree with him at all,  and hope he's the one with the egg on his face,  he hasn't waivered.......

[C.Biscuit97]

6 minutes ago, loyal2dagame said:

 

 

One thing I'll give to Biscuit,  he's been sticking to his guns on Allen for quite a while.  While i don't agree with him at all,  and hope he's the one with the egg on his face,  he hasn't waivered.......

I hope I have egg on my face too.  Trust me, it’s not personal.  I actually have really grown to like him as a good.  He has all the ability in the world.  I just don’t think it’s that easy to be a dominant nfl QB, especially when you have shown little evidence of dominating on any level.  A top 7 pick should have had some really dominant games in college.  Especially in that conference.  
 

but seriously, nothing would make me happier than Allen becoming the man.  He is in an absolutely great situation.  There are no excuses this year.  

[eball]

10 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I hope I have egg on my face too.  Trust me, it’s not personal.  I actually have really grown to like him as a good.  He has all the ability in the world.  I just don’t think it’s that easy to be a dominant nfl QB, especially when you have shown little evidence of dominating on any level.  A top 7 pick should have had some really dominant games in college.  Especially in that conference.  
 

but seriously, nothing would make me happier than Allen becoming the man.  He is in an absolutely great situation.  There are no excuses this year.  

 

I just wonder why you keep hanging your hat on Allen's college stats.  Those could be used before he took a snap in the NFL, but now we have nearly 30 starts and a boatload of more relevant information that suggests he does have the ability to take over a game.  It seems like you're trying so hard to protect yourself from buying in that you refuse to see what's in front of you.  But whatever.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Darnold’s numbers have been horrid?  He essentially has the same passing stats as Allen.

 

While this may be...  Maybe he's talking the potential out of the draft.  Josh was rated below Baker, Sam and Lamar.  

 

Sam's fist career pass was a pick 6

 

 

 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

While this may be...  Maybe he's talking the potential out of the draft.  Josh was rated below Baker, Sam and Lamar.  

 

Sam's fist career pass was a pick 6

 

 

 

Well said. No question Darnold was viewed as the more finished product coming into the draft, and if there numbers are now virtually neck & neck, that's more of a statement on JA being more capable than perhaps he was given credit for out the gate?

 

https://jetswire.usatoday.com/2018/05/04/uscs-clay-helton-sam-darnold-is-ready-to-lead-the-jets/

https://www.dailynews.com/2017/12/28/miller-uclas-josh-rosen-and-uscs-sam-darnold-are-ready-ripe-for-the-nfl/

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I hope I have egg on my face too.  Trust me, it’s not personal.  I actually have really grown to like him as a good.  He has all the ability in the world.  I just don’t think it’s that easy to be a dominant nfl QB, especially when you have shown little evidence of dominating on any level.  A top 7 pick should have had some really dominant games in college.  Especially in that conference.  
 

but seriously, nothing would make me happier than Allen becoming the man.  He is in an absolutely great situation.  There are no excuses this year.  

Well....

 

Edited July 8, 2020 by NoHuddleKelly12

[Doc]

Bill Barnwell is the worst.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

7 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Well....

 

 

LOL 

 

AMEN to that.   I had a 24 hour bug last week.   I tried not to get too worried.  

 

Just now, Doc said:

Bill Barnwell is the worst.

 

Not when he rated Josh better than Faker and Darnold and questions LJ's 2 big playoff flops 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

8 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

LOL 

 

AMEN to that.   I had a 24 hour bug last week.   I tried not to get too worried.  

 

Glad it wasn't THAT. It's weird to have hands start cracking from too much soap/sanitizer when not in dry winter months!  Stay safe out there bro.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Just now, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Glad it wasn't THAT. It's weird to have hands start cracking from too much soap/sanitizer when not in dry winter months!  Stay safe out there bro.  

 

You too bud.   

 

I may be in my early 60's but I am (I think I am) relatively healthy and have OP.   OP blood types are less likely to test positive .

 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

While this may be...  Maybe he's talking the potential out of the draft.  Josh was rated below Baker, Sam and Lamar.  

 

Sam's fist career pass was a pick 6

 

 

 

That might have been SD’s best game of his career.

 

its word to say but Allen is in a better situation than Darnold.  Plus, he lost a bunch of games due to mono.  I’m not saying he is better than Allen.  But do I think if Darnold was our qb last year would we make the playoffs?  Absolutely.

[Doc]

58 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

Not when he rated Josh better than Faker and Darnold and questions LJ's 2 big playoff flops 

 

I didn't read the article and give him the click bump.  I thought you said he rated Josh the worst?

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

59 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

I didn't read the article and give him the click bump.  I thought you said he rated Josh the worst?

at the Draft.  

 

or thats what I meant 

 

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

Not when he rated Josh better than Faker and Darnold and questions LJ's 2 big playoff flops 

 

[thebandit27]

5 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Why didn’t Losman get better?  Why didn’t EJ? Why didn’t Tribusky? Why didn’t a million other guys?  
 

If you bet on things, you try to make the safest bets possible.  With respect, answer my question.  What qb had a worse college resume of a 1st round draft pick than Allen did (in the last 7 years because football is completely different now)?  Honestly, I can’t think of one.  My concern since he was drafted was we want him to be a better player in the nfl than in the MWC.  That seems an extremely risky bet.  Imo, the team is good enough that we made the playoffs with C level qb play.  I don’t want C level qb play from the highest drafted qb in franchise history.

 

this year, hopefully, I don’t want to hear about 4th quarter comebacks.  I want Allen to light it up in the first 3 quarters so it’s a blowout in the 4th.  

The questions I’ll ask in response:

 

1) have you seen significant improvement from Allen since his rookie season?

2) given what you’ve seen from him, what makes it likely that he will not continue to improve?

3) if he does not improve from where he is, can the Bills win a Super Bowl with him?

4) given what you’ve seen from him, what makes it likely that he will continue to improve?

5) if he does improve from where he is, can the Bills win a Super Bowl with him?