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Victory Formation

Managing our cap space, which players do we re-sign, who do we let walk?

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In the day of having a salary cap and not being able to lock down every star player, which players do you think we should hand out contracts out to and who should we let walk? This is the new dynamic that GM Brandon Beane is facing. We have a deep deep roster and only so much cap space to go around. Look at the Cowboys and the way they’ve managed their cap, they have $5.6M in cap space and they went 8-8 last year. Who would you guys identify as cornerstone players and which positions do you guys value the most?

Edited by Victory Formation

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First Tell Josh to open a business and Pegulas invest in the Business to offset his below Market Value extensions. (Ala Brady and Pats). 

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2 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

In the day of having a salary cap and not being able to lock down every star player, which players do you think we should hand out contracts out to and who should we let walk? This is the new dynamic that GM Brandon Beane is facing. We have a deep deep roster and only so much cap space to go around. Look at the Cowboys and the way they’ve managed their cap, they have $5.6M in cap space and they went 8-8 last year. Who would you guys identify as cornerstone players and which positions do you guys value the most?

We have plenty of players 30+ years old on 1 or 2 year deals. They'll all be gone by 2022, saving quite a bit of space. Both safeties, Addison, Hughes, Murphy, Star, Brown, Beasley...We'll be replacing many of these players with draft choices. Obviously Allen on offense in the cornerstone, Tre and maybe Edmunds on defense.

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Only 4 positions I think are worth crazy money, QB, DE, CB, and LT.  Of that list Tre White is the only player at this point that I feel is 100% a must have.  I think a lot of the older vets on the D will be missed if not resigned.  White however, is a cornerstone of a Franchise.  I wouldn't pay Dawkins crazy money, he is good not great.  Our DE's are all older or rookies so they don't fit the bill.  Allen hasn't shown me that they need to give him 40+ mil/year, but I am hoping that will change.  

 

Other than that I would be shocked if there were any high price FA resignings that blow up the market.  (In a few years Edmunds might be one of the exceptions)

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Dawkins and Tre will be locked up. Milano is the wild card. 

 

I would err on resigning him. Mostly because based on the make up of our DL, I don’t see our run D taking off without competent LBers and McD hasn’t proven to be the LB whisperer that he has at DB. I don’t want to draft another LB in the first or second next year.

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2 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

In the day of having a salary cap and not being able to lock down every star player, which players do you think we should hand out contracts out to and who should we let walk? This is the new dynamic that GM Brandon Beane is facing. We have a deep deep roster and only so much cap space to go around. Look at the Cowboys and the way they’ve managed their cap, they have $5.6M in cap space and they went 8-8 last year. Who would you guys identify as cornerstone players and which positions do you guys value the most?

I think the coach and GM need to come to an understanding that there are some positions more important than others, like punter vs. QB vs. DE vs. Guard... Also, the pay needs to reflect those needs.  I mean we would all love to have high priced talent at every position, but because of the salary cap, that is not going to happen.

 

Usually, the most important positions are: QB, LT, DE, CB (as Gregthekeg stated).

 

So on the flip side, the *least* important positions are (IMO): Guard, LB, Safety   *least* here just means in salary cap hit. You still want talent in all positions.

 

So using that above, Josh Allen, White and Dawkins will get extensions.  I think it will be hard to sign both LB's to extensions (unless they take cap friendly deals)

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3 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

In the day of having a salary cap and not being able to lock down every star player, which players do you think we should hand out contracts out to and who should we let walk? This is the new dynamic that GM Brandon Beane is facing. We have a deep deep roster and only so much cap space to go around. Look at the Cowboys and the way they’ve managed their cap, they have $5.6M in cap space and they went 8-8 last year. Who would you guys identify as cornerstone players and which positions do you guys value the most?

I’d try to do EXACTLY what the Cowboys have done. They have something like 9 of their best 10 players under contract through 2022. I would sacrifice contracts for guys like Klein, Butler, Long, Murphy, DiMarco, Norman, etc.. and play young guys there. I’d attempt to lock up Tre, Dawkins, Milano, Edmunds, Oliver, Allen (hopefully), and Diggs. Keep your stars and fill out the middle and back of your roster with young players. 

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Tre is a must keep, he is an elite part of an elite defense. If Josh can improve he will also be a key component like any QB. Looking at the rest of the 2017 and 2018 draft classes you have 4 other players who could be up for extension. Dawkins, Milano, Edumonds, and possibly H.Phillips (And possibly T.Johnson and Levi Wallace too but factoring out them for now.) Of those four I would say Dawkins and Edumonds are the top two to keep BUT given that Milano is up before Edumonds I think you are better off keeping Dawkins and Milano on reasonable deals (not overpays but market value) to try and maximize the window to win in 2021 and 2022 when Edumonds will still be on the last year of his rookie deal and 5th year option. 

 

Then again I could easily see Beane retaining all critical talent on market level deals since as extensions for Tre, Dawkins and Milano are doable as the cap is not a crunch in 2021. Then as Edumonds, H.Phillips, Allen and others become free agents down the line in 2022 the Bills veteran contracts on the team expire or are easy to get out of. Poyer, Brown, Beasley, Star, Hughes, Mitch,  Butler, and several others expire or could be cut after 2021 to make room for extensions. Yes some draft picks will have to be used to replace talent and they might have to let 1-2 players walk after their rookie deals but I think overall the Bills will be able to keep most if not all of their free agents. 

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I have more confidence in the current GM/HC combo to decide how to allocate spending over any other group in the past 20+ years.

Melding your star players with middling vets and rookies/young players is a continuous process (pun intended).

 

That being said I think it's a lock they sign White to a long term contract making White the highest paid CB in the league.

After that it's about the player and the negotiations.

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Tier 1 QB   100 mil to 150 mil

 

Tier2 LT, DE, Rush/Cover LB, Shut down man cover CB, Elite Top 15 WR, Elite DT 70 mil to 100 mil

 

Tier 3 WR,RB,CB Zone coverage, DT, G,C,TE,SS,FS   40 mil to 70 mil

 

Tier 4 FB, K, P 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

First Tell Josh to open a business and Pegulas invest in the Business to offset his below Market Value extensions. (Ala Brady and Pats). 

I was loving this post until you GAVE IT AWAY 😐

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I used to be in the camp of locking up solid players as early as possible, but this Covid situation could make the cap actually go down or remain stagnant. 
 

I would see how the team looks at the trade deadline before I would give extensions to Milano or Dawkins. That way we protect against a big injury to either in those early games and get more of an idea of their progression. If god forbid the season is going downhill for any reason such as Allen lost for the year, at that point I would look to trade Dawkins. The Tunsil contract may have over inflated the LT market and it’s possible we could get one in the draft for much cheaper. 

if everything goes as planned I would sign Dawkins and Milano but heavily front load both contracts to protect against the cap going down. 

 

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This Spotrac link is really useful.  Scroll down past the summary table and you will see all salaries for each year for all players in tables by position group.  It’s easy to see what needs are coming up and where money is allocated. 

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1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

This Spotrac link is really useful.  Scroll down past the summary table and you will see all salaries for each year for all players in tables by position group.  It’s easy to see what needs are coming up and where money is allocated. 

Per this, we’re in great shape. Most of our fat contracts won’t likely be here in ‘22.

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I mean there are guys that are pretty obvious like Murphy.....Lee Evans.....the DT that is being a bit overpaid

 

The replacements for those guys are already on the roster

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Tre, Milano, Dawkins this year

Edmunds, Allen (no disclaimers needed - he WILL improve this year), Phillips next year.....

 

Easy peasy.  Glad I am not whipping out my checkbook for that lineup!!!

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If we cut Murphy, we save $8 mil. to bring us to $28 mil. Or so in space and can then extend Milano and Dawkins.  We have two years on White, so hopefully we can extend him next year, and have three years in Allen if he keeps progressing.  A previous poster mentioned we have a number of guys up after 2020 or 2021, so we’ll most likely find younger talent to supplant the 30+ guys at the right time.

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10 hours ago, klos63 said:

We have plenty of players 30+ years old on 1 or 2 year deals. They'll all be gone by 2022, saving quite a bit of space. Both safeties, Addison, Hughes, Murphy, Star, Brown, Beasley...We'll be replacing many of these players with draft choices. Obviously Allen on offense in the cornerstone, Tre and maybe Edmunds on defense.

Agreed..

 

If you look at the position by position

 

QB -  Rookie contract for next 3 years (with the 5th year option)

RB -  Both RB on Rookie contract 

OL -  1 FA Contract (Morse),   1 Rookie Contract (Ford), a bunch of cheap deals and have to pay  Dawkins (or let him walk

TE -  Kroft, Smith could be gone.. Dawson and Sweeney on rookie contract 3 for years

WR -  BIg FA Contracts (Diggs, BRown, Beasley) -  They have drafted  2 WRs this year and probably 2 more next year as they phase out the big 3 over the 3 years.

 

DE -  Lot of FA Contracts here that would need to be phased out...But also have Oliver and Epnesa...Two back 2 back years, their top pick is a DL.

LB -  Here is the pickle situation -   Both LBs are on rookie contract, but need big raises in 2021 and 2022.  Edmunds will stay...Milano not sure unless he wants to ttake an under the market deal.

Safeties -  Both will finish their FA contract and will have to be replaced in the draft...Picks like Johnson will have to come through.

Corner Back -  They will pay Tre...but keep the other positions in FA and draft picks. 

 

The Bills have not hit well with their lower round draft picks.   They need to start changing that.  Otherwise, they are going to be in trouble when Allens contract comes up. 

 

They need prow bowl type play from their draft picks at  TEs,  OL,  DL, CB, LB

 

It is obvious that Beane is thinking two steps ahead in his draft.

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Oh good. A thread worrying about cap space. It really is a Bills fan obsession. Next week - comp picks!

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