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On-Side Kick Rule Option

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The only reason I am against it is that some teams would just play a PI call and not even attempt to complete the pass. I like the idea overall but it obviously would become a farce with the poor state of officiating in the league right now.

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According to the article on NFL.com, over the past two seasons, on-sides kicks have been successful 10.4% of the time (higher than I expected, honestly).  According to Football Outsiders, the average rate of success of a 4th-and-15 scenario is 12.5%.  So, effectively, the proposed rule change increases the odds of keeping the football by only 2.1%, but teams risk giving the opponent the ball on the 25-yd line (instant field goal range for the opponent) instead of somewhere closer to mid-field with a failed on-sides kick.  I don't know if the proposed rule change really provides enough incentive to try it, so I don't see it so much as a "reward" for the trailing team - it's a very risky thing to try.  On the other hand, if your QB has a hot hand in the 4th suddenly, maybe you try it in those situations.  Not sure I like it, but not dead-set against it, either.  I would add a couple of requirements - you must have just scored a TD on the previous play and not a field goal to "earn" the right to attempt the 4th-and-15 and it should not be an option on an opening kickoff of either half.  Actually, I wouldn't allow it in the 1st half at all (not that teams would even consider that).

Edited by ChasBB

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If the rule goes thru............

 

In the 4th and 15 situation, DO NOT make PI an automatic first down in this instance.

 

If the penalty occurs before the 15 yards, it should only mean you keep the try and it is still 4th and 15.

 

Why should a trailing team be rewarded.

Edited by njbuff
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If the refs weren’t awful, I’d be for it.  From a player safety standpoint, probably better for the players to get rid of onside kicks where players get a 10 yard runway to lay out a stationary target who’s looking fur the ball.  

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3 hours ago, Just Joshin' said:

Not a fan.  An on side kick under the old rules had a 25% success rate.  A 15 yard pass play must have better odds.  If this is done, the yardage needs to be increased to 20 or more.

 

The penalty issue is also legit - a poor PI call can flip the game.  Yes it could happen regardless but when losing possession it is a double hit.

 

 

I hate it , so many freakin rule changes you will need a manual  just to keep up with the game , but I agree with you it should be 20 yards or more 

Edited by Putin
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4 hours ago, LB48 said:

League Owners will consider this rule change in their upcoming Virtual Meeting.

 

Teams could still onside kick, but if this proposal was adopted, they also would have the opportunity to convert a 4th-and-15 scenario at their own 25-yard line to retain possession.  Teams could use the 4th-and-15 attempt only twice per game.

 

Gaining 15 or more yards, presumably by passing the football, is certainly easier than executing a successful onside kick. 

 

What's your opinion??

 

 

It's a terrible idea. A team should not be given the ball back in succession. They have to take it back.

 

Making the game "more exciting" is a terrible excuse. It's been the most successful sport for a long time. It doesn't need to cheapen possessions to keep fans interested. If they are so concerned about injuries, they should go the other way, and make it a penalty to NOT kick the ball further downfield, and basically eliminate the on-side kick. 

 

 

These "once or twice a game" rules are really gimmicky, and cheapen the game. Teams play all game long under a set of rules, then out of the blue.... 

 

"It's time to Spin The Wheel for bonus points. Yay!"

 

 

 

 

Edited by Prickly Pete
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If you make a rally in the 9th inning, you still only get three outs.  The shot clock doesn't change and a golfer than it is one shot back doesn't get to hit from the red tees on the 72nd hole.  

Why make it easier for a team that is losing?  How is that fair to the team that is ahead?  

Leave it alone.  The coaches and teams just need to adjust by managing the clock and using their time outs more wisely when attempting a comeback.

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21 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

If you make a rally in the 9th inning, you still only get three outs.  The shot clock doesn't change and a golfer than it is one shot back doesn't get to hit from the red tees on the 72nd hole.  

Why make it easier for a team that is losing?  How is that fair to the team that is ahead?  

Leave it alone.  The coaches and teams just need to adjust by managing the clock and using their time outs more wisely when attempting a comeback.

Football has never been as rigid as either of those sports, there used to be a way for teams to have a chance, a difficult one, to get the ball back after scoring. With the rule change to kickoffs the chance has dropped way down and this is just an idea to get closer to what was there before.

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The following is NOT a typo:

 

Pat Mahomes QBR on 3rd and 15 or more is 99.9  (also, this stat alone, should demonstrate just how awesome Mahomes is)

 

The rest of the entire NFL QBR on 3rd and 15 or more is 4.7

 

KC would just score and go for the "onside" conversion everytime. 

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41 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

Possession should be determined after a kicking of the football. Unless it is a turnover of course. 

 

I agree. Maybe if they're going to rule that the kicking team can't run until the ball is kicked, the kicking team should have the option to move the kickoff back to the 30 but still require the receiving team lineup on their side of the 50. That way both teams have the same distance to travel to get to the 40 yard line and recover the onside kick?

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16 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

The following is NOT a typo:

 

Pat Mahomes QBR on 3rd and 15 or more is 99.9  (also, this stat alone, should demonstrate just how awesome Mahomes is)

 

The rest of the entire NFL QBR on 3rd and 15 or more is 4.7

 

KC would just score and go for the "onside" conversion everytime. 

Yes Mahomes walks on water !!!!

Edited by Putin
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So, let's say a team's down 4 at their own 10 yard line.  It's 4th and 20 and they have no timeouts left.  Wouldn't they just take a safety and then hope to get the onside kick?  I'm sure the NFL thinks this through and comes to the right conclusion like they always do.  I mean, the challenge rule for the PI worked to perfection last season.

Edited by Doc Brown

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7 hours ago, section122 said:

Nightmares of "pass interference" being called to benefit certain teams with this scenario.  Anytime you are adding the refs to end of game scenarios you are opening a giant can of worms. 

 

In theory I like the idea.  In reality it sounds terrible.

Get back to me when BB and the Evil Empire have figured out all the angles...😁

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I don't like it. The numbers suggest expected onside kicks have gone from around 17% success probability to around 10% since the rule change a few years ago. To be honest I could live with that but even if you decide you can't then why not just go back to the old onside? It was made impossible because of the rules preventing overloading which were designed to make normal kick offs safer. The rule change pretty much did away with the concept of the surprise onside anyway so why not just say like how a team now has to declare that it is going for two (whereas before they could fake XP) that a team must declare if it is going to onside kick? On those plays you can allow the overload and you can institute a law that says an onside that travels more than 25 yards is immediately a dead ball and a spot foul to avoid teams declaring an onside and then kicking deep with the overload. I know they got rid of the running start too and I'd keep that even for onsides but allowing the overload would put more bodies back in the vicinity and create more possibility for a deflection.

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7 hours ago, LB48 said:

League Owners will consider this rule change in their upcoming Virtual Meeting.

 

Teams could still onside kick, but if this proposal was adopted, they also would have the opportunity to convert a 4th-and-15 scenario at their own 25-yard line to retain possession.  Teams could use the 4th-and-15 attempt only twice per game.

 

Gaining 15 or more yards, presumably by passing the football, is certainly easier than executing a successful onside kick. 

 

What's your opinion??

No thanks,  keep it the way it is

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2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

So, let's say a team's down 4 at their own 10 yard line.  It's 4th and 20 and they have no timeouts left.  Wouldn't they just take a safety and then hope to get the onside kick?  I'm sure the NFL thinks this through and comes to the right conclusion like they always do.  I mean, the challenge rule for the PI worked to perfection last season.

 

 

Belichick would.

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9 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I seriously hate these silly things. It’s football. I don’t want the kick off to go away. I don’t want the extra point to go away. I don’t want the onside kick to go away. Play Football. You want to be safer? Fine. I have no issue with intelligent solutions towards the goals of safety. Don’t change the actual plays in the game please.

Yeah and they should never have added the forward pass damn it!  I say keep the integrity of the game and leave the plays in the game alone!!

3 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

The following is NOT a typo:

 

Pat Mahomes QBR on 3rd and 15 or more is 99.9  (also, this stat alone, should demonstrate just how awesome Mahomes is)

 

The rest of the entire NFL QBR on 3rd and 15 or more is 4.7

 

KC would just score and go for the "onside" conversion everytime. 

God you must be bored.

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