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On-Side Kick Rule Option

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the odds are not much different than recovering an onside kick 

https://operations.nfl.com/stats-central/stats-articles/why-fourth-and-15-from-the-25-insight-into-the-nfl-s-experiment-with-an-onside-kick-alternative/

 

Accounting for do-overs, we settled on the following chart to compare Denver’s proposal of a fourth-and-15 with the historical onside kick recovery rate of 13.2%.

nfo-059-lopez-converstion-rate-charts-rl

 

Kicking teams historically recovered onside kicks between 15% and 20% of the time in a given season. In 2018, in part to changes on the kickoff play, that number dropped below 10%.

 

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9 hours ago, msw2112 said:

I'm more of a traditionalist, so I don't like it.  The on-sides kick is an important part of the game that has always been.  If the new rule passes, however, I could learn to like it.

 

I think this is probably a great example of confirmation bias.  While you think this is “an important part of the game that has always been” I’m willing to bet that in reality, the data would show it has a negligible impact on the game and is typically just a waste of time.  At least this play would create “actual” excitement and keep the end of games in doubt.

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9 hours ago, Just Joshin' said:

Not a fan.  An on side kick under the old rules had a 25% success rate.  A 15 yard pass play must have better odds.  If this is done, the yardage needs to be increased to 20 or more.

 

The penalty issue is also legit - a poor PI call can flip the game.  Yes it could happen regardless but when losing possession it is a double hit.

 

 

I don't like it at all.  The thought of losing a game when you were up 13 points late in the 4th because a team converted a 4th and 15 would drive me nuts.

 

With hays aid you are right if it does pass it needs to be more than 15 yards and the ball should be further back to further penalize the team attempting it.  

 

4th and 18 from your own 17 yardline seems better

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12 minutes ago, eball said:

 

I think this is probably a great example of confirmation bias.  While you think this is “an important part of the game that has always been” I’m willing to bet that in reality, the data would show it has a negligible impact on the game and is typically just a waste of time.  At least this play would create “actual” excitement and keep the end of games in doubt.


I bet the Cowboys thought it was an important part of the game on MNF in 2007 

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I think they should just come up with a new rule each season to add excitement!

 

How about a tip off like basketball, to begin each half?

 

How about tie games get decided by who can punt the ball the farthest? 

That would be awesome. 

You fuddy duddies don't understand that this game needs to constantly be ***** with in order to hold the youngsters attention.

 

Let's see....instead of a coin flip, how about "Rock, Paper, Scissors"?

 

Or an arm-wrestle between coaches to decide who gets to kick or receive? Boy, that could really make for some interesting strategies when hiring a coach, huh?

 

 

Someday these could be innovations not unlike the development of the forward pass for ***** sake!

 

 

 

 

Edited by Prickly Pete

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Hate it. You just know that the Bills would be in one of the games where this would come into play and we’d get screwed. 
 

 

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3 minutes ago, billsfanmiami(oh) said:


I bet the Cowboys thought it was an important part of the game on MNF in 2007 

 

Well, sure, anyone can pick a game in the past that was impacted by a successful onside kick.  That doesn’t mean it is statistically significant over the course of NFL history.

 

You guys are acting like a team converting this 4th and 15 equates to “instant points” and that is simply not the case.

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52 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

the odds are not much different than recovering an onside kick 

https://operations.nfl.com/stats-central/stats-articles/why-fourth-and-15-from-the-25-insight-into-the-nfl-s-experiment-with-an-onside-kick-alternative/

 

Accounting for do-overs, we settled on the following chart to compare Denver’s proposal of a fourth-and-15 with the historical onside kick recovery rate of 13.2%.

nfo-059-lopez-converstion-rate-charts-rl

 

Kicking teams historically recovered onside kicks between 15% and 20% of the time in a given season. In 2018, in part to changes on the kickoff play, that number dropped below 10%.

 

 

 

There are other factors as well. I wonder what the 3rd/ 15 and 4th/15 success rates are in the final 7 minutes of  games are? I bet they are higher. The defenses are more worn out. 

 

This definitely favors good offensive teams. It will have an impact.

 

 

 

Edited by Prickly Pete

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2 minutes ago, Prickly Pete said:

It will have an impact

 

And that, my friend, is the point.  Currently the onside kick has a negligible impact on the game and is a waste of time.  The NFL wants to institute a play that actually means something.

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36 minutes ago, eball said:

 

And that, my friend, is the point.  Currently the onside kick has a negligible impact on the game and is a waste of time.  The NFL wants to institute a play that actually means something.

 

 

 

So would a "longest punt" competition.

 

And that would make punters FASCINATING.

 

But I still prefer the coaches arm wrestling.

 

 

How about this? If a team gets ahead by more than 14 points, the team that is down keeps the ball until they score. It will keep games close.

 

Don't step on this idea, it's "the next Forward Pass"....

 

 

 

Edited by Prickly Pete
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10 hours ago, LB48 said:

League Owners will consider this rule change in their upcoming Virtual Meeting.

 

Teams could still onside kick, but if this proposal was adopted, they also would have the opportunity to convert a 4th-and-15 scenario at their own 25-yard line to retain possession.  Teams could use the 4th-and-15 attempt only twice per game.

 

Gaining 15 or more yards, presumably by passing the football, is certainly easier than executing a successful onside kick. 

 

What's your opinion??

 

Do you keep the ball where you end up, or if you make it does it go back to the 25?

 

If it goes back to the 25 I'm much more ok with it than if you can score a td, especially since you can't advance an onside kick.

 

That said, make it the 40, since a kick has to go 10 (or 15 yards now) before it is a live ball. The only thing is that a kickoff is a live ball so you could theoretically get possession wherever on the field if the team doesn't touch it.

 

All that said, the idea of a free hail mary that you can score on by saying "onside kick attempt" is not right.

Edited by HardyBoy

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11 hours ago, section122 said:

Nightmares of "pass interference" being called to benefit certain teams with this scenario.  Anytime you are adding the refs to end of game scenarios you are opening a giant can of worms. 

 

In theory I like the idea.  In reality it sounds terrible.

 

So much this it isn't funny.

 

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10 hours ago, LB48 said:

League Owners will consider this rule change in their upcoming Virtual Meeting.

 

Teams could still onside kick, but if this proposal was adopted, they also would have the opportunity to convert a 4th-and-15 scenario at their own 25-yard line to retain possession.  Teams could use the 4th-and-15 attempt only twice per game.

 

Gaining 15 or more yards, presumably by passing the football, is certainly easier than executing a successful onside kick. 

 

What's your opinion??

 

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

the odds are not much different than recovering an onside kick 

https://operations.nfl.com/stats-central/stats-articles/why-fourth-and-15-from-the-25-insight-into-the-nfl-s-experiment-with-an-onside-kick-alternative/

 

Accounting for do-overs, we settled on the following chart to compare Denver’s proposal of a fourth-and-15 with the historical onside kick recovery rate of 13.2%.

nfo-059-lopez-converstion-rate-charts-rl

 

Kicking teams historically recovered onside kicks between 15% and 20% of the time in a given season. In 2018, in part to changes on the kickoff play, that number dropped below 10%.

 

 

First off, let me add I'm not crazy about this idea, but I can maybe see where they are going with this.  The biggest thing I don't like is starting at the 25.  An incomplete pass almost guarantees the other team at least 3pts because it pretty much puts them right at the field goal range of most kickers.

 

With the recent changes to onside kicks, it's harder than the "historical" average to recover one these days so I understand the search for a for viable option while considering the CTE fears.

 

If it's going to be a possibility, I'd say keep it at the 35 yard line.  But still, this is going to be very bias to the better offenses in the league.  A KC will do this much more often than say the Redskins, who don't simply have the firepower and will be the ones who need to do it.  Kicks made it a more level playing field.

 

 

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11 hours ago, LB48 said:

League Owners will consider this rule change in their upcoming Virtual Meeting.

 

Teams could still onside kick, but if this proposal was adopted, they also would have the opportunity to convert a 4th-and-15 scenario at their own 25-yard line to retain possession.  Teams could use the 4th-and-15 attempt only twice per game.

 

Gaining 15 or more yards, presumably by passing the football, is certainly easier than executing a successful onside kick. 

 

What's your opinion??

 

I like our odds with Josh Allen throwing.

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11 hours ago, coloradobillsfan said:

don't like it.  it's a desperation measure that should be difficult. 

It should, but they've made an onside kick pretty much impossible to recover these days so there should be some other option now.  

 

The thing that might need some tweaking is what happens on penalties.  On an onside kick it's virtually impossible for the receiving team to get a penalty that would result in the kicking team getting the ball.  On a 4th and 15 there are lots and lots of things that can happen to get a free first down or even something like an offside penalty would then make it 4th and 10.  Given that the play is almost certain to be a pass, DPI, holding, hitting a defenseless receiver and roughing the QB all come to mind and we've all seen really lousy calls made in all of those areas.

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Terrible idea.  First possession awarded on the inevitable PI call will make this more obvious.

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Instead of this change, what if they changed the formation rule to allow up to 8 players on one side and you're called for an illegal formation penalty only if the ball is not touched within 15 or maybe 20 yards of where it is teed up. If the kicking team does onside kick it will be touched within that yardage so no penalty. If the kicking team fakes and kicks deep, it's a penalty and ball is automatically spotted at the opponents 40 yard line. 

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