It's not just Allen under the microscope this year, so is Daboll

[TroutDog]

9 hours ago, ColeB said:

 

I wish we had detailed data as to what sacks and pass rush in backfield were totally the fault of the O-line.  I know Ford struggled a lot and maybe only Morse is above average but play calling and play design also have to be considered.

 

It drives me nuts when the Bills run an empty backfield on 3rd and 3.  First of all, you take away the unknown of pass vs run.  Second, if someone misses an assignment or just loses their battle, there’s no back to cover up. Now Singletary was a rookie and is small, but he likely wouldn’t be useless back there. Even a chip of the rusher before going out on a pattern would help.

Yeah, I know the empty backfield drives many people nuts around here.
 

There is, however, something to be said for forcing the D to spread out when you only need three yards, particularly with Josh as the QB. Given that, I’m not sure if it does take away the run versus pass in the minds of the D and D coordinator. Certainly minimizes options, I agree. Josh can fall forward and get three years, though. ? 
 

I don’t have figures, but I would venture to say that it was a combination of O line breaking down and Josh taking too long to read the D. The latter is corrected with repetition and coaching. The former with, first and foremost, better O line play and by becoming a cohesive unit. 
 

Just my two cents. 

Edited April 28, 2020 by TroutDog

[Prickly Pete]

I don't even care if his completion % basically stays the same, I mostly want him to stop taking 15 and 20 yard sacks. I think it's something he can work out.

[GunnerBill]

14 hours ago, TroutDog said:

Yeah, I know the empty backfield drives many people nuts around here.
 

There is, however, something to be said for forcing the D to spread out when you only need three yards, particularly with Josh as the QB. Given that, I’m not sure if it does take away the run versus pass in the minds of the D and D coordinator. Certainly minimizes options, I agree. Josh can fall forward and get three years, though. ? 
 

I don’t have figures, but I would venture to say that it was a combination of O line breaking down and Josh taking too long to read the D. The latter is corrected with repetition and coaching. The former with, first and foremost, better O line play and by becoming a cohesive unit. 
 

Just my two cents. 

 

Agree - when they spread out in empty in 3rd and 3 there is - for the most part - still a run option built into the play and that run option is Josh Allen. The other thing to mention is the Bills were good in 3rd or 4th and 1 last year because they ran the QB sneak really well, but in 3rd and 2 to 4 yards they were an atrocious rushing team. As they were in goalline rushing. Morse is not the centre you want in those scenarios because he just doesn't get that push and having a 63 year old short yardage back didn't help.

[BarleyNY]

15 hours ago, TroutDog said:

Yeah, I know the empty backfield drives many people nuts around here.
 

There is, however, something to be said for forcing the D to spread out when you only need three yards, particularly with Josh as the QB. Given that, I’m not sure if it does take away the run versus pass in the minds of the D and D coordinator. Certainly minimizes options, I agree. Josh can fall forward and get three years, though. ? 
 

I don’t have figures, but I would venture to say that it was a combination of O line breaking down and Josh taking too long to read the D. The latter is corrected with repetition and coaching. The former with, first and foremost, better O line play and by becoming a cohesive unit. 
 

Just my two cents. 

Regarding using the spread formation.  Yes, you absolutely still have the threat of Allen running the ball which pressures the defense.  It also makes it much more difficult for the defense to disguise its coverage/blitz.  I think we did it so much mainly for that reason - to make it easier for Josh to correctly read the defense.  (Daboll should get some credit for this.)

Edited April 29, 2020 by BarleyNY

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

Regarding using the spread formation.  Yes, you absolutely still have the threat of Allen running the ball which pressures the defense.  It also makes it much more difficult for the defense to disguise its coverage/blitz.  I think we did it so much mainly for that reason - to make it easier for Josh to correctly read the defense.  (Daboll should get some credit for this.)

 

Yep. 

[T master]

Good post very insightful ! 

 

Dabol now has plenty of strengths on his offensive unit they know the scheme with exception of the rookies and new FA's brought in but with good communication it shouldn't be a huge learning curve for the type of athletes they are bringing in, Josh needs to take another step if he can if not it's better to find out sooner than later .

 

Bringing in Bromm could ave been a bit of divine intervention it may work out well you never know what crazy things can happen in the NFL if he learns the scheme and picks Dabol's brain every chance he gets while watching Josh that would be nothing but good for the team overall he could be a huge asset from everything i've read he's a football junky, but for now i hope Josh with his help can put it all together and take that next step ! 

 

I totally agree this year is where the rubber meets the road and will wind up telling us a lot about the coaches and the players ability's to step it up given all the weapons any team should need to make it to the big game . 

[Logic]

On 4/26/2020 at 11:08 PM, Inigo Montoya said:

Everyone knows that Josh Allen needs to take another big step forward this year.  It is his third year in the same offense,  he should enjoy better O-Line play, and he will have more weapons to get the ball to this year.  If he isn't able to take a step forward this year, then we are probably looking at his ceiling and I don't think we win a Super Bowl with him under center.

 

The same thing can be said about Brian Daboll.  The offense has been the anchor around the neck of this franchise the last couple seasons.  Not all of it is Daboll's fault, the offensive cupboard was pretty bare when Daboll arrived.  That's not the case anymore.  With the offensive continuity and the players that Beane has given him, the pressure is squarely on Daboll to produce a much better offense.  He is out of excuses this year,  just like Josh Allen.

 

I think Daboll's biggest problem is that he just seems to outsmart himself at times. This year there should be no excuses for Lee "False Start" Smith being on the field, or DiMarco running routes 20+ yards down field, or Singletary disappearing for huge stretches of games when he is running effectively, or Cole Beasley disappearing for entire halves of games. 

 

Daboll needs to find his groove this year and this offense needs to finally start scoring some points. Barring catastrophic injuries, he has no more excuses, the cupboard is full of talent.  Now Daboll needs to get that talent to execute.  I don't think Beane and McDermott bring him back for a year four if he doesn't get the job done this year.

 

 

I agree with pretty much everything you said except for the bolded.

Lee Smith's "excuse" for being on the field is that he's the best blocking tight end on the roster, and sometimes you need a blocking tight end in football.

I assume the DiMarco comment refers to the playoff game? You may or may not recall that DiMarco brought two defenders with him on that play, which means that an actual wide receiver elsewhere in the play was single covered. That being the case, the play was likely a smartly drawn one and worked as designed. The onus is on Josh Allen in that situation not to THROW IT to the double-covered fullback. 

I like Daboll more than most. I think he has tailored the offense to Josh Allen enormously and given great ownership over the playbook to the young QB. I, too, believe Daboll has a pivotal year ahead, but I probably put more of the blame for the offensive failings on Allen than I do on Daboll. Why? Its simple: When you watch the All-22 from last year, you see a lot of open receivers that Josh doesn't pull the trigger on. You also see a lot of guys open down field that Josh overthrows. Those two things aren't Daboll's fault. If Allen has the confidence and can read the defense well enough to hit those open receivers, and if his deep ball is good enough to hit some of the guys open deep, the entire offensive output changes drastically. 

You're right that both Allen and Daboll need to improve this year, but I put the bigger weight on Josh Allen. 

Edited April 29, 2020 by Logic

[billsgpr88]

I think the bar has been set a bit too high for Allen. The recent examples of near immediate success by qbs (mahomes, jackson, watson, wentz) has set lofty, and frankly, unrealistic expectations for young qbs. There are a lot of metrics by which a qb can be assessed, but to me the two biggest are total touchdowns and total turnovers. I haven't checked, but I believe Allen had 29 tds last season and only 12 or 13 turnovers. Compare that (again, I haven't checked, more diligent posters can confirm/disprove this) to the second seasons of HOF qbs like Brady and Brees, and I bet they are comparable. Allen definitely can work on certain things such as long ball accuracy, reading the field, accuracy, and adjusting velocity, but I don't think his performance last year warrants the concern that many fans have.

[C.Biscuit97]

With all due respect to him since he’s a local guy, Daboll sucks as OC.  He’s always sucked.  It blows my mind that most fans were fine with the hire. I hated it from day one.  Jalen Hurts went to Oklahoma and was a Heisman candidate and became a 2nd rounder and he was holding him back at Bama.

 

anything less than a top 15 offense and Daboll would be fired and they should make plans for the Allen replacement. 

[Bangarang]

7 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

With all due respect to him since he’s a local guy, Daboll sucks as OC.  He’s always sucked.  It blows my mind that most fans were fine with the hire. I hated it from day one.  Jalen Hurts went to Oklahoma and was a Heisman candidate and became a 2nd rounder and he was holding him back at Bama.

 

anything less than a top 15 offense and Daboll would be fired and they should make plans for the Allen replacement. 

Yeah, Daboll has had really bad offenses every time he’s been an OC in the NFL and so far he hasn’t done much better in Buffalo. 
 

Right now he has the most talent that he’s probably ever had to work with so if things don’t get much better then I imagine he’d be on his way out.

[Chicken Boo]

On 4/27/2020 at 9:29 AM, Homey D. Clown said:

It took Alex Smith more than 5 years to resemble a top tier QB, if Allen doesn't make some sort of "magical" leap this year, but continues to perform as well as he did past year, he's going nowhere.  

 

When has Alex Smith ever resembled a top tier QB? 

 

The Bills have a window RIGHT NOW!  Allen isn't going to get 5 years to struggle without competition for his spot.  That much I'm sure of.

[Homey D. Clown]

1 hour ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

When has Alex Smith ever resembled a top tier QB? 

 

 

 

Is this a rhetorical question?

 

And I stand by my comments that there's no way they cut bait on Josh if he doesn't take that "mystical" leap this year.  Zero chance. matter of fact, I'll go as far to say that they don't cut bait on him if he regresses slightly.  Zero chance there as well.  this is not my hope, this is just reality.

 

[Einstein's Dog]

On 4/27/2020 at 12:08 PM, Ethan in Portland said:

Also, if Knox makes one block then Daboll is a genius for calling that Allen end around in OT that would have won the game. So it goes....

Sorry, I can't let this Knox hate go unchallenged.  Like if Knox pancaked the guy, the flagged play  would have ended differently?  There was a penalty on the play for god's sake (and the penalty was not on Knox).  The play was coming back.

 

As to the OP, yes they are both under pressure to improve.  A key to this improvement is the development of Josh.  I think Josh has improved significantly and Daboll is a big reason why. 

 

It needs to continue and improve though.  This coming season when the Bills have the ball, 2 or more timeouts, and around a minute to go in the half at around the 30, I do not want to see them sit on it.  Saw that at least twice last year, kind of pathetic.

[Nihilarian]

6 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

With all due respect to him since he’s a local guy, Daboll sucks as OC.  He’s always sucked.  It blows my mind that most fans were fine with the hire. I hated it from day one.  Jalen Hurts went to Oklahoma and was a Heisman candidate and became a 2nd rounder and he was holding him back at Bama.

 

anything less than a top 15 offense and Daboll would be fired and they should make plans for the Allen replacement. 

Thank you for the realistic response / view!  I don't get the love for the guy either. But then so many Bills fans still love Chan Gailey along with his "smoke and mirror" offense. 

 

 

Now consider, if you have the wrong guy teaching, developing that young QB wouldn't you want to get him an upgrade at OC before making a determination on Allen?

 

The biggest problem I see with Daboll is that he is destroying Allen's confidence at times by ignoring the run game when its clearing working! Meanwhile, putting the onus to win the game on the QBs shoulders when the pass game isn't working all that well. All the while the QB is under tremendous pressure.  Why the confidence thing is so bothersome to me is because the more confidence he has in himself, that will help this young QB with his decision making, accuracy.  

 

What bothers me is why can't Beane, McD see that Daboll isn't all that good?

 

You take a young QB with arguably the strongest arm in the league and suddenly he can't hit the deep pass in 2019. What happened? In 2018 the Bills lead the NFL in deep passes attempted and Allen was hitting Jones, Foster on some of those deep passes. 2019...pfft! 

 

Like you mention with Hurts, I think Daboll is hindering, holding Allen back.  

 

What some Bills fans need to understand is that Allen has only had 27 game starts out of 32. Less than two seasons of playing experience and is still very raw and developing as a pocket passer. Bills fans want him to be Patrick Mahomes and he simply isn't...Allen didn't play at Texas Tech in an "air raid" scheme, he also doesn't have Andy Reid setting up the game plan and calling plays. Plus, Allen didn't sit for a season learning behind Alex Smith.

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Thank you for the realistic response / view!  I don't get the love for the guy either. But then so many Bills fans still love Chan Gailey along with his "smoke and mirror" offense. 

 

 

Now consider, if you have the wrong guy teaching, developing that young QB wouldn't you want to get him an upgrade at OC before making a determination on Allen?

 

The biggest problem I see with Daboll is that he is destroying Allen's confidence at times by ignoring the run game when its clearing working! Meanwhile, putting the onus to win the game on the QBs shoulders when the pass game isn't working all that well. All the while the QB is under tremendous pressure.  Why the confidence thing is so bothersome to me is because the more confidence he has in himself, that will help this young QB with his decision making, accuracy.  

 

What bothers me is why can't Beane, McD see that Daboll isn't all that good?

 

You take a young QB with arguably the strongest arm in the league and suddenly he can't hit the deep pass in 2019. What happened? In 2018 the Bills lead the NFL in deep passes attempted and Allen was hitting Jones, Foster on some of those deep passes. 2019...pfft! 

 

Like you mention with Hurts, I think Daboll is hindering, holding Allen back.  

 

What some Bills fans need to understand is that Allen has only had 27 game starts out of 32. Less than two seasons of playing experience and is still very raw and developing as a pocket passer. Bills fans want him to be Patrick Mahomes and he simply isn't...Allen didn't play at Texas Tech in an "air raid" scheme, he also doesn't have Andy Reid setting up the game plan and calling plays. Plus, Allen didn't sit for a season learning behind Alex Smith.

 

 

 

 

If your Quarterback's confidence is destroyed by the OC putting that game in his hands then you have got yourself the wrong Quarterback and you better get a new one. 

 

And I don't agree with you anyway on that being when Allen struggles. Allen struggles when the game is taken out of his hands and put in the hands of his running backs and then suddenly after 4 run plays you say to Josh "I need you to hit on this 3rd and 8 to keep the drive alive." That isn't him. That isn't who he is. He is better when the football is in his hands, he thrives when the football is in his hands and his best throws come when he is in rhythm and feeling it. The sure fire way to wreck Josh Allen is to try and turn him into a throw it 25 times a game, game manager type. Like that horrific Washington Redskins game. Josh looked thoroughly bored and he wasn't the only one. Let the kid play, don't coach the hero ball out of him and don't try and babysit him to stop him falling. It is the surest way of ruining his career. 

[Chicken Boo]

23 hours ago, Homey D. Clown said:

 

Is this a rhetorical question?

 

And I stand by my comments that there's no way they cut bait on Josh if he doesn't take that "mystical" leap this year.  Zero chance. matter of fact, I'll go as far to say that they don't cut bait on him if he regresses slightly.  Zero chance there as well.  this is not my hope, this is just reality.

 

 

It wasn't rhetorical.  Alex Smith has never been top tier. 

 

I wasn't suggesting they'd cut bait after this year, but competition will be added if he doesn't take a clear step in the right direction, and it'll happen before the optional 5th year. 

[Homey D. Clown]

On 4/30/2020 at 1:12 PM, Chicken Boo said:

 

It wasn't rhetorical.  Alex Smith has never been top tier. 

 

I wasn't suggesting they'd cut bait after this year, but competition will be added if he doesn't take a clear step in the right direction, and it'll happen before the optional 5th year. 

 

I can agree with you for most of his lackluster career, but for a couple of years, he was one of the most accurate passers ranking in the top ten, and a very desirable QB on the market.  I define top tier at around the top 10 performers generally speaking.  you may not agree, and that's fine, but Alex did improve to a much better level of play, and I would have been happy if he landed here instead of Washington before we got Josh.

[Hardhatharry]

On 4/27/2020 at 8:12 AM, ALLEN-2-DIGGS-TD!! said:

Josh you are horrible but we are going to give you 35 million per year because we like you kid now give me a hug.

It's happened before with Fitz...

On 4/27/2020 at 9:29 AM, Homey D. Clown said:

It took Alex Smith more than 5 years to resemble a top tier QB, if Allen doesn't make some sort of "magical" leap this year, but continues to perform as well as he did past year, he's going nowhere.  

Alex Smith got passed from Superbowl contending team to another and onto the Redskins b.c he wasn't good enough. Don't let the stats fool you.

[Homey D. Clown]

32 minutes ago, Hardhatharry said:

 

Alex Smith got passed from Superbowl contending team to another and onto the Redskins b.c he wasn't good enough. Don't let the stats fool you.

 

There's nothing to be fooled by.  He performed in the top tier of the NFL, I don't care whether or not he was good enough for one team over another.  I made my point very clearly, what you're insinuating is something else entirely. 

 

Was he was fools gold?  Yeah probably, that wasn't my point.  The chiefs were a good team, tough to beat when he was there, and stats prove that.  also, if you read my original post, which you copied, I clearly stated resembled, and that he made a significant improvement in his game, which the guy did, that's not even disputable, I don't know what you're missing here.

[Hampton Josh fan]

Allen is the face of the franchise.  The QBs get paid to take all the heat. Dabol is trying to work up to a HC job consideration. The Bills success for the next 5 or 6 years depends on a 1st rd blue chip prospect panning out. Dabol is important to Allen taking the next step, but make no mistake Allen will take all the responsibility for under achievement. Dabol might be replaced or get a HC job, so he is not a key figure for long term success. Allen is on the griddle because of the playoff berth. He's got to produce and I firmly believe he will. 

[stuvian]

I'm sure Daboll is keeping his CV handy for a reunion with Frank Gore once the Jets annual head coach vacancy opens up later this year

[Alphadawg7]

My thoughts:

 

Daboll has a lot to prove as OC still.  He has flashed brilliance at times and utter stupidity at others, and unfortunately those stupid moments have often come at critical moments of games.  

 

Daboll strikes me as someone who cares more about being viewed as a genius than he does at making sound decisions in those moments.  Feels like he outsmarts himself at moments where he just needs to call a good play.  Running a draw with a 35 year old RB at a moment he thinks no one would expect him to run a draw (because its utterly stupid) is a good example, and one he's unfortunately on several occasions.  

 

I have been up and down with him.  But the on thing I will say...I think he finally has the personnel to do better with his system.  Adding in Diggs is an obvious major impact because its not just about Diggs.  John Brown no longer will draw the top coverage.  You got elite speed on the outside, elite quickness in the slot in Cole, an athletic TE that can pressure the middle and seams, and now a run game that should be dominant between a young stud in Devin, Allen as a major threat to run as a QB, and now Moss who has substantial potential.  All with our OL staying in tact with more depth.  

 

So I agree, I think Daboll is going to be on a make or break season personally.  If the offense isn't taking the steps it should with this roster, he may be replaced.  If he has great success like I think we will, he is a top HC candidate next year without question.

[GunnerBill]

Daboll is certainly under more scrutiny because we have now finally given him the tools to produce a productive offense. If he isn't top half of the league he will be replaced (and should be). If he is top 10 he will get a Head Coach job (and probably deservedly). The window for him still being with the Bills as OC in 2021 is quite a narrow one IMO. It is somewhere between 11th and 17th best offense in the NFL and Josh taking another step.

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

Daboll is certainly under more scrutiny because we have now finally given him the tools to produce a productive offense. If he isn't top half of the league he will be replaced (and should be). If he is top 10 he will get a Head Coach job (and probably deservedly). The window for him still being with the Bills as OC in 2021 is quite a narrow one IMO. It is somewhere between 11th and 17th best offense in the NFL and Josh taking another step.

 

Totally agree with all this

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Daboll is certainly under more scrutiny because we have now finally given him the tools to produce a productive offense. If he isn't top half of the league he will be replaced (and should be). If he is top 10 he will get a Head Coach job (and probably deservedly). The window for him still being with the Bills as OC in 2021 is quite a narrow one IMO. It is somewhere between 11th and 17th best offense in the NFL and Josh taking another step.

Being the OC who “fixed” Josh Allen, a super polarizing QB prospect, would be quite the feather. 

 

I could see the Chargers take a good long look at him this offseason once they get an excuse to jettison Lynn.

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Daboll is certainly under more scrutiny because we have now finally given him the tools to produce a productive offense. If he isn't top half of the league he will be replaced (and should be). If he is top 10 he will get a Head Coach job (and probably deservedly). The window for him still being with the Bills as OC in 2021 is quite a narrow one IMO. It is somewhere between 11th and 17th best offense in the NFL and Josh taking another step.

I don’t necessarily disagree with your thoughts, but I don’t think anything concerning Daboll trumps the impending financial decision on Allen.  I think Daboll has done better than most here give him credit for.  Execution has been a bigger problem than his game planning and play calling even though he’s certainly made some mistakes.

 

The real issue is that Daboll isn’t due a huge financial and cap commitment soon.  In March the Bills will have to decide whether or not to exercise Allen’s fifth year option.  It’s important to note that he will be in the first class of players who the new rules will apply to.  Fifth year options will be fully guaranteed when executed and the salary calculation will be more favorable for Allen than in the past.

 

If the offense doesn’t improve this season then I can see Allen and Daboll paying the price and I can see Allen paying the price, but I don’t see just Daboll paying it.  We’d do what in that last case?  Bring in a new OC to work with Allen for one season and then make a decision on whether or not to pay Allen?  That’s tough.  It’s possible that it could happen, but it’d be a really tough situation for everyone.  

[Mango]

35 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I don’t necessarily disagree with your thoughts, but I don’t think anything concerning Daboll trumps the impending financial decision on Allen.  I think Daboll has done better than most here give him credit for.  Execution has been a bigger problem than his game planning and play calling even though he’s certainly made some mistakes.

 

The real issue is that Daboll isn’t due a huge financial and cap commitment soon.  In March the Bills will have to decide whether or not to exercise Allen’s fifth year option.  It’s important to note that he will be in the first class of players who the new rules will apply to.  Fifth year options will be fully guaranteed when executed and the salary calculation will be more favorable for Allen than in the past.

 

If the offense doesn’t improve this season then I can see Allen and Daboll paying the price and I can see Allen paying the price, but I don’t see just Daboll paying it.  We’d do what in that last case?  Bring in a new OC to work with Allen for one season and then make a decision on whether or not to pay Allen?  That’s tough.  It’s possible that it could happen, but it’d be a really tough situation for everyone.  

I think Allen has to fall off a cliff to not get his 5th year, as he probably should. I say that as a guy who has been critical of him at times. That said, if Allen doesn’t show another large leap in his consistency and effectiveness from the pocket, the staff will find somebody else to give it a go. It isn’t one year, it is two. Allen is headed into his third season. Buffalo will have to make the decision before he starts his 4th.  

[BarleyNY]

7 hours ago, Mango said:

I think Allen has to fall off a cliff to not get his 5th year, as he probably should. I say that as a guy who has been critical of him at times. That said, if Allen doesn’t show another large leap in his consistency and effectiveness from the pocket, the staff will find somebody else to give it a go. It isn’t one year, it is two. Allen is headed into his third season. Buffalo will have to make the decision before he starts his 4th.  

I agree that Allen will almost certainly (and should) get four years to prove himself, but the Bills can give him that without exercising his 5th year option.  If he regresses or stays the same then I definitely don’t think he gets it.  If he takes a big leap forward I think he definitely does.

 

But if he just makes a small improvement, then I really don’t know.  I’d guess that they’d punt and give him year 4 as the starter, but not exercise the option.  There’s always a tag.  Or they could give him a big sign of confidence and exercise it.  The big downside of that is that they will know if he’s the guy or not after four seasons and if he’s not, then they’d be stuck paying him close to $25M for year 5.  Let’s hope he lights it up and makes the decision easy.  

[GunnerBill]

40 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I agree that Allen will almost certainly (and should) get four years to prove himself, but the Bills can give him that without exercising his 5th year option.  If he regresses or stays the same then I definitely don’t think he gets it.  If he takes a big leap forward I think he definitely does.

 

But if he just makes a small improvement, then I really don’t know.  I’d guess that they’d punt and give him year 4 as the starter, but not exercise the option.  There’s always a tag.  Or they could give him a big sign of confidence and exercise it.  The big downside of that is that they will know if he’s the guy or not after four seasons and if he’s not, then they’d be stuck paying him close to $25M for year 5.  Let’s hope he lights it up and makes the decision easy.  

 

I think small improvement he gets the option picked up. To be honest I think anything other than regression he gets the option picked up. Not saying it is necessarily what I'd do but I think it is what the Bills will do.

[Mango]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

I agree that Allen will almost certainly (and should) get four years to prove himself, but the Bills can give him that without exercising his 5th year option.  If he regresses or stays the same then I definitely don’t think he gets it.  If he takes a big leap forward I think he definitely does.

 

But if he just makes a small improvement, then I really don’t know.  I’d guess that they’d punt and give him year 4 as the starter, but not exercise the option.  There’s always a tag.  Or they could give him a big sign of confidence and exercise it.  The big downside of that is that they will know if he’s the guy or not after four seasons and if he’s not, then they’d be stuck paying him close to $25M for year 5.  Let’s hope he lights it up and makes the decision easy.  

He’s a top 10 pick, the 5th year option is the same as the transition tag. Why use one and not the other? It’s about $24M. 
 

He’ll have to go full Trubisky/Bortles to not get his 5th year option with this FO. Right or wrong, I think they are all in on 5 years with the kid even if he flat lines or shows incremental improvement. Which is fine with me because he has shown he can get better. And I say that as a guy who also thinks the current version of Josh Allen is a pretty bad passer of the football. 
 

Edit: Let me rephrase. He’ll get 5 years in a Bills uniform. I can’t see them not taking it after this year barring catastrophic failure. They may head into year 5 with a fail safe and Allen could get yanked. 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Mango

[BarleyNY]

11 minutes ago, Mango said:

He’s a top 10 pick, the 5th year option is the same as the transition tag. Why use one and not the other? It’s about $24M. 
 

He’ll have to go full Trubisky/Bortles to not get his 5th year option with this FO. Right or wrong, I think they are all in on 5 years with the kid even if he flat lines or shows incremental improvement. Which is fine with me because he has shown he can get better. And I say that as a guy who also thinks the current version of Josh Allen is a pretty bad passer of the football. 

The big difference is that his option would have to be executed in March 2021, a full year before the transition tag would be.  That’s my main point.  Unless he improves a good bit this season, why not wait and see how he does in year 4 before guaranteeing him $24M for year 5?

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

The big difference is that his option would have to be executed in March 2021, a full year before the transition tag would be.  That’s my main point.  Unless he improves a good bit this season, why not wait and see how he does in year 4 before guaranteeing him $24M for year 5?

 

It is a fair point. That is new, right?

[Dopey]

On 4/27/2020 at 8:47 AM, Buffalo03 said:

I almost feel that you can't really make a fair judgement on Allen with Daboll as OC. The guys playcalling is extremely atrocious a lot of the time. He was the reason we ended up in a lot of 3rd and long situations trying to run 36 year old Frank Gore to the side instead of up the middle. He also gets to happy with QB draws for Allen. I feel like in order to have a fair assement of Allen this season that Daboll needs to just let Allen let loose

I feel the same way, except the other way around. Last year was hard to judge Daboll with Allen as the QB. We should have beat NE in our 1st match up but Allen was horrible. Just before the 1st half of the Philly game, Allen fumbles and Philly scores with 25 second left in the half. Philly also scores a 2 pointer off that td. Allen gave them 8 points. Philly takes the momentum and scores to open the 3rd and it's over for us. If Allen hits on a couple of plays vs. Balt. we win. Daboll called 2 awesome plays early in that game, but Allen didn't execute. Allen had a 3 play meltdown late in the playoff game( I still laugh at the attempted lateral to Knox). Daboll called a winning game vs. the Texans. Player lack of execution was the problem.

[Buffalo03]

2 minutes ago, Dopey said:

I feel the same way, except the other way around. Last year was hard to judge Daboll with Allen as the QB. We should have beat NE in our 1st match up but Allen was horrible. Just before the 1st half of the Philly game, Allen fumbles and Philly scores with 25 second left in the half. Philly also scores a 2 pointer off that td. Allen gave them 8 points. Philly takes the momentum and scores to open the 3rd and it's over for us. If Allen hits on a couple of plays vs. Balt. we win. Daboll called 2 awesome plays early in that game, but Allen didn't execute. Allen had a 3 play meltdown late in the playoff game( I still laugh at the attempted lateral to Knox). Daboll called a winning game vs. the Texans. Player lack of execution was the problem.

Yeah, but both are at fault here. Allen needs to fix some things but I don't think Daboll is necessarily putting him in the best position a lot of times. Running Gore to the side on 2 and 10 and ending up with 3rd and 9 doesn't really help anyone. Allen did turn the Ball over a lot in the NE game trying to play hero ball. That game was on him. I feel like he settled down a lot as the season went on. And that fumble that Allen had in the Philly game was a QB draw play. Which is another play that Daboll gets too happy with. Allen needs to work on touch and not trying to be the hero all the time but Daboll needs to put him in better situations. Especially, with Diggs here now. He nees to air it out anf trust Allen. That Steelers Sunday night game last year had me ripping my hair out with the plays that Daboll was calling. We got a turnover and then run the ball 3 straight times. Two of them with Gore and then Settle for a FG. You can't do that

[Mango]

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

The big difference is that his option would have to be executed in March 2021, a full year before the transition tag would be.  That’s my main point.  Unless he improves a good bit this season, why not wait and see how he does in year 4 before guaranteeing him $24M for year 5?

 

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is a fair point. That is new, right?

 

 

This is a good point, why commit yourself financially if you don't have to. Again, I think Allen gets 5 years on the roster to prove he either is or is not the guy. I have been critical of his passing, but he has shown enough improvement currently to get that year. Even if he only shows incremental improvements over the next two years, they will give him part or all of his 5th year to take a huge step as a passer. And if that happens, there will be somebody on the bench ready to step in if he doesn't at that point. But probably not before then.  

 

In regards to the difference between a 5th year and Transition tag, I believe the Transition tag is similar to being an RFA. Where the Bills have the right of first refusal. Just an example, Jacksonville in 2 years offers Allen 3 years at 30M/Y, because they still blow and their new HC thinks they can make something work.  Buffalo can match or decline and lose him. Which they probably would in the above scenario because they are waiting for him to "prove it". Where as the 5th year option, he has to be a Buffalo Bill in year 5 baring a trade or cut. After that both can re sign or walk away without an issue. 

[BarleyNY]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is a fair point. That is new, right?

Yes!

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Yes!

 

When did it become guaranteed under the old CBA?

[BarleyNY]

5 hours ago, Mango said:

 

 

 

This is a good point, why commit yourself financially if you don't have to. Again, I think Allen gets 5 years on the roster to prove he either is or is not the guy. I have been critical of his passing, but he has shown enough improvement currently to get that year. Even if he only shows incremental improvements over the next two years, they will give him part or all of his 5th year to take a huge step as a passer. And if that happens, there will be somebody on the bench ready to step in if he doesn't at that point. But probably not before then.  

 

In regards to the difference between a 5th year and Transition tag, I believe the Transition tag is similar to being an RFA. Where the Bills have the right of first refusal. Just an example, Jacksonville in 2 years offers Allen 3 years at 30M/Y, because they still blow and their new HC thinks they can make something work.  Buffalo can match or decline and lose him. Which they probably would in the above scenario because they are waiting for him to "prove it". Where as the 5th year option, he has to be a Buffalo Bill in year 5 baring a trade or cut. After that both can re sign or walk away without an issue. 

Yeah.  The fifth year option is a team option that can’t be refused by the player (except with retirement).  No other team can negotiate with the player.  Starting next season it becomes guaranteed at the time it is executed.

 

The transition tag allows the player to negotiate and sign with another team, but the team that tagged him can match.  They get no compensation if they don’t.  The non-exclusive franchise tag is the same except the team gets two first round picks from the team that signs him away if they don’t match.  The exclusive rights franchise tag does not allow the player to negotiate or sign with anyone else.  All of the tags become guaranteed at the time the player signs them.

 

So in addition to the transition tag the franchise tags are also options if his fifth year option isn’t picked up.  I look at QBs (not just Allen) like this: If you get through four seasons and you still don’t think enough of that QB to tag him, then it’s time to part ways.  The financial cost just becomes too great by year 5.  So if he earns the fifth year option this season, awesome.  Start preparing to sign him to a long term deal after year 4.  If he doesn’t, but earns a tag in 2021, still great.  If not, then it’s time to find somebody else.  Four years is long enough to decide whether or not he’s the guy. 

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

When did it become guaranteed under the old CBA?

Guaranteed for injury only at time it was executed.  Fully guaranteed on the first day of the league year (in March).  This last group that included White is under the old rule. 

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Guaranteed for injury only at time it was executed.  Fully guaranteed on the first day of the league year (in March).  This last group that included White is under the old rule. 

 

So guaranteed on the first day of the league year to which the option applies (so year 5) rather than now when it becomes guaranteed when it is triggered in the offseason before year 4?

[Mango]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

Yeah.  The fifth year option is a team option that can’t be refused by the player (except with retirement).  No other team can negotiate with the player.  Starting next season it becomes guaranteed at the time it is executed.

 

The transition tag allows the player to negotiate and sign with another team, but the team that tagged him can match.  They get no compensation if they don’t.  The non-exclusive franchise tag is the same except the team gets two first round picks from the team that signs him away if they don’t match.  The exclusive rights franchise tag does not allow the player to negotiate or sign with anyone else.  All of the tags become guaranteed at the time the player signs them.

 

So in addition to the transition tag the franchise tags are also options if his fifth year option isn’t picked up.  I look at QBs (not just Allen) like this: If you get through four seasons and you still don’t think enough of that QB to tag him, then it’s time to part ways.  The financial cost just becomes too great by year 5.  So if he earns the fifth year option this season, awesome.  Start preparing to sign him to a long term deal after year 4.  If he doesn’t, but earns a tag in 2021, still great.  If not, then it’s time to find somebody else.  Four years is long enough to decide whether or not he’s the guy. 

Guaranteed for injury only at time it was executed.  Fully guaranteed on the first day of the league year (in March).  This last group that included White is under the old rule. 

I am aware of how the transition tag works, that is why I said it doesn’t make sense to use it when you can guarantee that 5th year for the same exact amount of money with no danger or matching. The franchise doesn’t make any sense in this scenario because by the time the situation arises for a 5th year, it will cost the team an extra $10M minimum to apply it. 
 

You can avoid all that mess by just applying the 5th year option, assuming Allen shows even incremental growth/the wheels don’t fall off. 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Mango