unless I am missing something, you say they are not at all similar and then proceed to describe how they are in fact similar (both have some value because they can turn out to be winners). This was part of the point I was making: a lottery ticket and a 6th rounder both have potential when you first get them, but the probability that you win big on either is highly, highly unlikely statistically. Tom Brady is the powerball winner; for every hall of famer picked after the 5th rounder, there are hundreds of players who barely make the team (ok, so 6th rounders are not AS unlikely to hit on as a lottery ticket). But the point is that 6th and 7th rounders are 2nd stringers or special teamers like 95% of the time, and another thing to consider is that you are just about as likely to find a similar level of talent from the UDFAs or free agency at that point.