RD 2, Pick 54: DE AJ Epenesa, University of Iowa

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Yeah I think people that still like this pick are the same people that want more defense at all costs. Epenesa really hasn’t been good at all. We could have gone in a lot of different directions and made more of a difference with that pick.

Gotta factor in rookie factor......AJE DID make plays.....but not a lot of them.....he has position flex because he can play both DE and DT.....

 

Murphy will be gone.....Addison did not give us Shaq's production......we are old at the position.....need a legit pass rusher

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Disagree. Totally disagree. KCs offense is great. They have weapons all over the place. You just can’t stop them no matter how great your defense is. They literally have to crap on themselves for you to beat them. You have to be able to keep up with KC in a shootout, meaning you have to have weapons on offense to match them.

 

You HAVE to have edge pressure too. The teams that beat them or get close to beating them all get pressure off the edge that contains Mahomes in the pocket and forces him to step up. You do have to be able to run the ball too, so I am not totally rubbishing for call for an upgrade at running back (although I am loathe to spend more high picks on it.... I didn't love Singletary or Moss as picks but we have spent two 3rds in two years). They are the two consistent themes in the games that cause KC problems. Edge pressure on defense, running game on offense. They are both weaknesses at the moment for the Bills. 

 

EDIT: When the Raiders beat the Chiefs for example, they pressured Mahomes on 22 of 43 dropbacks. Only 2 of which were blitzes. You have to get edge pressure. It is essential. 

Edited January 29, 2021 by GunnerBill

[machine gun kelly]

Epenesa has come in slow, but that doesn’t mean he’s a flop.  Some guys develop into a solid player in years 2 and 3.  

[Blokestradamus]

6 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

he has position flex because he can play both DE and DT.....

 

I thought that the vast majority of his good plays in college were when he kicked inside. He was a gamechanger every time Iowa needed something. Without even a hint of hyperbole, if he played at DT consistently at that level, my comparison for him was Jonathan Allen.

 

The fact that he's seemed to have lost weight worries me because his strength was the only reason to like him.

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, Blokestradamus said:

 

I thought that the vast majority of his good plays in college were when he kicked inside. He was a gamechanger every time Iowa needed something. Without even a hint of hyperbole, if he played at DT consistently at that level, my comparison for him was Jonathan Allen.

 

The fact that he's seemed to have lost weight worries me because his strength was the only reason to like him.

 

Brandon said in his post season presser they asked him to lose weight and have a better body fat ratio but he lost more than they hoped and then struggled to regain and retain. I thought it was interesting. 

[John from Riverside]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Brandon said in his post season presser they asked him to lose weight and have a better body fat ratio but he lost more than they hoped and then struggled to regain and retain. I thought it was interesting. 

An NFL off-season will fix that

[Blokestradamus]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Brandon said in his post season presser they asked him to lose weight and have a better body fat ratio but he lost more than they hoped and then struggled to regain and retain. I thought it was interesting. 

 

He definitely lacked explosion in college and a move to maybe trim down 10 pounds of bad weight wasn't the worst idea.

 

Also, are you on first name terms with the GM now? Turning into a proper Jermaine Jenas

[Rochesterfan]

10 hours ago, FireChans said:

Did not out perform? He averaged 6 YPC and had 9 TDs. Moss and Seventh Devin averaged like 4.2 and had 7 TDs.

 

Dobbins had 134 carries and 805 yards. COMBINED our duo had 268 carries and 1160 yards. 
 

130 extra caries to have 300 more yards. yikes on ice

That’s also speculative! Got ‘em

 

Yep - he did that on a team with one of the top 2 or 3 best run blocking O-Lines and the very best run game coordinator in the NFL - by far.

 

Switch him and Moss and who has the better season - switch him and Singletary and who has the better season.  
 

My guess is Moss and Singletary on Baltimore average much closer to 6 YPC than Dobbins does in Buffalo.  Dobbins also came out a lot on 3rd down as it looked like he struggled on pass pro and was Singletary esq on receiving.

 

In games against teams like Indy, Tenn, NE and even the Browns and Philadelphia - Dobbins was not even pedestrian as a RB.  Yes he dominated against teams like the Bengals, but he was not anything special in most games and for many games Gus Edwards (a classic JAG) was just as good or better.

 

My belief is if we had drafted Dobbins and not Epenesa - we would be sitting here with the same RB questions and needing 2 young DEs.  

 

 

[whorlnut]

32 minutes ago, Blokestradamus said:

 

He definitely lacked explosion in college and a move to maybe trim down 10 pounds of bad weight wasn't the worst idea.

 

Also, are you on first name terms with the GM now? Turning into a proper Jermaine Jenas

Epenesa is not a fast twitch athlete. His success in college was based on power. To me, the Bills are trying to make him into something he isn’t. He will never have a lot of speed off the edge. His game is using his heavy hands to overwhelm tackles to get to the qb. 

[Coach Tuesday]

7 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Epenesa is not a fast twitch athlete. His success in college was based on power. To me, the Bills are trying to make him into something he isn’t. He will never have a lot of speed off the edge. His game is using his heavy hands to overwhelm tackles to get to the qb. 

Correct.  Asking him to completely change his body type and game in a shortened rookie offseason was an epic player development FAIL.  He needs a much better offseason plan this time around.

[Blokestradamus]

6 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Epenesa is not a fast twitch athlete. His success in college was based on power. To me, the Bills are trying to make him into something he isn’t. He will never have a lot of speed off the edge. His game is using his heavy hands to overwhelm tackles to get to the qb. 

 

I agree that power is his forte. I still don't think it's necessarily a bad idea to alter his body composition to help him get a little more explosive, provided that you can keep his strength up while dropping some of the bad weight. Given all of the issues that have changed the way teams can do things in 2020, maybe things didn't go according to plan.

 

AJ isn't my kind of pass rusher but I recognise his scheme fit. Keeping those violent hands is a must for his future success.

[whorlnut]

2 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Correct.  Asking him to completely change his body type and game in a shortened rookie offseason was an epic player development FAIL.  He needs a much better offseason plan this time around.

I trust the bills player development almost without fail, but what they’ve done with Epenesa is the one glaring exception. I feel they got the pick completely wrong in the first place if what they wanted was a speed rusher. 

Just now, Blokestradamus said:

 

I agree that power is his forte. I still don't think it's necessarily a bad idea to alter his body composition to help him get a little more explosive, provided that you can keep his strength up while dropping some of the bad weight. Given all of the issues that have changed the way teams can do things in 2020, maybe things didn't go according to plan.

 

AJ isn't my kind of pass rusher but I recognise his scheme fit. Keeping those violent hands is a must for his future success.

I agree. I just didn’t like the pick on draft day and I like it even less now that he isn’t even the same player they drafted. Asking him to drop weight seems like a very risky strategy to me. 

[Coach Tuesday]

In retrospect, Chinn would’ve been the pick.

[Blokestradamus]

2 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

II agree. I just didn’t like the pick on draft day and I like it even less now that he isn’t even the same player they drafted. Asking him to drop weight seems like a very risky strategy to me. 

 

As soon as I saw something about him losing weight, I audibly groaned and hypothesised whether they were trying to turn him into Lorenzo Alexander. Having watched Spencer Johnson executing zone drops all those years ago, I ***** hope not

[colin]

AJ was a non factor this season, which is not acceptable for a 2nd round pick at a position of need.  obv he has lots of room and time to improve, but this does speak to the new wave idea of building a team with absolute super stars, and filling in everywhere else w the draft and the odd value FA.

 

because we had this silly notion of a super deep DL where we just rush the passer and blow up run fits with fresh legs, we had players like murphy (8mm a year inactive player) and butler/addison (sub replacement level production at ~9MM a year) taking burn away from the young rookies.

 

if we had a Rams/KC approach instead of a few stars and then everyone else, maybe we'd have a difference maker DE or DT in FA (seems like TB was able to get both of those with Suh and JPP) and while you'd expect the rookie to struggle at first (our over priced Jags did too, and kept it up!) by the end of the season you have a real asset on the cheap.

 

we've signed 5 DL on bigger FA contracts recently (star, murph, and the 3 stiffs last year) and maybe Star is good, the rest not.  we signed 2 TEs on not small contracts (klien being expensive, smith being meh) and they blow, we've signed 2 i think linebackers at over 1mm a year (klien over all was not a good fit IMO vs his cap, rest is depth).  

 

we signed our two safeties for fairly cheap contracts, total home run.  we signed beez and brown to a total of like 12mm a year or so, great (even tho brown is always hurt and will likely walk).  williams was a great 1y guy at OT, hope it keeps up, morse is a slightly above average starter payed all pro money, spain was an ok signing, bad extension.

 

if instead of trafficking in all of that trash, we focused on getting stars, and getting max value otherwise, i think guys like epenessa would be better today, and at the very least we'd know more about him.

[whorlnut]

Just now, Coach Tuesday said:

In retrospect, Chinn would’ve been the pick.

This would have been a good pick up. All throughout the draft process we heard hints being dropped about a “big nickel”. Joe B blabbed about it ad nauseum every chance he could. The problem was that Epenesa dropped and the bills got pulled into the BPA crap. Sometimes BPA isn’t the best idea. What if the BPA doesn’t fit your scheme or isnt the type of player at that position you are looking for?

 

I really disliked the Epenesa pick. I wanted Dobbins. He went one pick later which made it even worse. But I would have been ok with Chinn. To me he was more of a fit than Epenesa. We need to stop all these elite tight ends that are popping up and Chinn would have been a good get. 

[FireChans]

50 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Yep - he did that on a team with one of the top 2 or 3 best run blocking O-Lines and the very best run game coordinator in the NFL - by far.

 

Switch him and Moss and who has the better season - switch him and Singletary and who has the better season.  
 

My guess is Moss and Singletary on Baltimore average much closer to 6 YPC than Dobbins does in Buffalo.  Dobbins also came out a lot on 3rd down as it looked like he struggled on pass pro and was Singletary esq on receiving.

 

In games against teams like Indy, Tenn, NE and even the Browns and Philadelphia - Dobbins was not even pedestrian as a RB.  Yes he dominated against teams like the Bengals, but he was not anything special in most games and for many games Gus Edwards (a classic JAG) was just as good or better.

 

My belief is if we had drafted Dobbins and not Epenesa - we would be sitting here with the same RB questions and needing 2 young DEs.  

 

 

Dobbins. Aaaaaaand. Dobbins.

[Rochesterfan]

Just now, FireChans said:

Dobbins. Aaaaaaand. Dobbins.

🤦‍♂️
 

Good for you.

[whorlnut]

3 minutes ago, Blokestradamus said:

 

As soon as I saw something about him losing weight, I audibly groaned and hypothesised whether they were trying to turn him into Lorenzo Alexander. Having watched Spencer Johnson executing zone drops all those years ago, I ***** hope not

Great point. Me too. Again, I hated the pick, but I was slowly getting used to envisioning Epenesa over power tackles and wreck the pocket. Now he looks like a completely different player. My point is...if the Bills wanted speed off the edge then why do you draft this guy in the first place?

[Coach Tuesday]

5 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

This would have been a good pick up. All throughout the draft process we heard hints being dropped about a “big nickel”. Joe B blabbed about it ad nauseum every chance he could. The problem was that Epenesa dropped and the bills got pulled into the BPA crap. Sometimes BPA isn’t the best idea. What if the BPA doesn’t fit your scheme or isnt the type of player at that position you are looking for?

 

I really disliked the Epenesa pick. I wanted Dobbins. He went one pick later which made it even worse. But I would have been ok with Chinn. To me he was more of a fit than Epenesa. We need to stop all these elite tight ends that are popping up and Chinn would have been a good get. 

I didn’t (and don’t) even think AJ was the BPA there.

[whorlnut]

5 minutes ago, colin said:

AJ was a non factor this season, which is not acceptable for a 2nd round pick at a position of need.  obv he has lots of room and time to improve, but this does speak to the new wave idea of building a team with absolute super stars, and filling in everywhere else w the draft and the odd value FA.

 

because we had this silly notion of a super deep DL where we just rush the passer and blow up run fits with fresh legs, we had players like murphy (8mm a year inactive player) and butler/addison (sub replacement level production at ~9MM a year) taking burn away from the young rookies.

 

if we had a Rams/KC approach instead of a few stars and then everyone else, maybe we'd have a difference maker DE or DT in FA (seems like TB was able to get both of those with Suh and JPP) and while you'd expect the rookie to struggle at first (our over priced Jags did too, and kept it up!) by the end of the season you have a real asset on the cheap.

 

we've signed 5 DL on bigger FA contracts recently (star, murph, and the 3 stiffs last year) and maybe Star is good, the rest not.  we signed 2 TEs on not small contracts (klien being expensive, smith being meh) and they blow, we've signed 2 i think linebackers at over 1mm a year (klien over all was not a good fit IMO vs his cap, rest is depth).  

 

we signed our two safeties for fairly cheap contracts, total home run.  we signed beez and brown to a total of like 12mm a year or so, great (even tho brown is always hurt and will likely walk).  williams was a great 1y guy at OT, hope it keeps up, morse is a slightly above average starter payed all pro money, spain was an ok signing, bad extension.

 

if instead of trafficking in all of that trash, we focused on getting stars, and getting max value otherwise, i think guys like epenessa would be better today, and at the very least we'd know more about him.

This is a home run post. Well said. 
 

Teams like KC and TB have weapons all over the field. It’s not wonder they are where they are. There is still a TON of work to do on our offense. Diggs is all world, but Beasley is a guy that makes great plays but doesn’t do anything after the catch. We have no running game. Our tight ends stink. Josh and Diggs are our entire offense for the most part. 
 

If we want to challenge KC we need to be able to score points. Adding another weapon to go along with Diggs on offense would be huge. I’m not sure if that means Ettienne or Harris at running back, Toney at Wr, or Freiermuth at TE. That’s up to Beane to decide. I do know, though, that KC is the blueprint and we need follow suit. 

3 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I didn’t (and don’t) even think AJ was the BPA there.

The pick makes me more upset when I have to relive that moment. 

[SoCal Deek]

Something odd happened to Epenesa. I watched him many times his senior year at Iowa and didn’t even recognize him in a Bills uniform. The Training Staff somehow turned this college bull rushing DE into Aaron Maybin within the span of a few offseason weeks! Not acceptable, on someone’s watch.

[34-78-83]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Correct.  Asking him to completely change his body type and game in a shortened rookie offseason was an epic player development FAIL.  He needs a much better offseason plan this time around.

To me, they knew he was going to need time to adjust his body type to the pro game (so more of a need to than an "ask" to) and they also didn't draft him as an immediate "get on the field" need and had to learn some more of the nuances of the game. He lost a bit too much weight by working extra hard but either way he's a development player that should be at or near his expected performance levels by year 3. Not sure he'll ever be a game changer but projects as a solid player who can certainly contribute.

[whorlnut]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Something odd happened to Epenesa. I watched him many times his senior year at Iowa and didn’t even recognize him in a Bills uniform. The Training Staff somehow turned this college bull rushing DE into Aaron Maybin within the span of a few offseason weeks! Not acceptable, on someone’s watch.

I tend to agree. This is a huge disappointment on the bills part. Epenesa was NEVER a speed guy. Why are they trying to put a square peg into a round hole with this guy?  To me he’s a huge wasted pick. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

In retrospect, Chinn would’ve been the pick.

He wouldn't have received the snaps he did in Carolina. 

[whorlnut]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He wouldn't have received the snaps he did in Carolina. 

He would have come in handy against Kelce though...

[oldmanfan]

In general I think we need to quit trying to decide a player's value based on one season.

[Southern_Bills]

I was for it during the draft and I still stand by it, Drafting J.K. Dobbins would have been smart.

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

He would have come in handy against Kelce though...

Not with the way they game planned against him. I doubt he would make a difference vs Kelce anyway. That's a reach. 

[whorlnut]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Not with the way they game planned against him. I doubt he would make a difference vs Kelce anyway. That's a reach. 

That’s the point. If you have Chinn, the game plan for Kelce is different. Good grief...

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

That’s the point. If you have Chinn, the game plan for Kelce is different. Good grief...

That's a ridiculous assumption that McDermott changes how he covers the best TE in the NFL based on a rookie. 

 

Chinn is a good player but he wouldn't have gotten the playing time in Buffalo. You're likely also taking Taron Johnson off the field to replace him with a big safety. I just don't see it. Chinn would have been used sparingly. 

[whorlnut]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

That's a ridiculous assumption that McDermott changes how he covers the best TE in the NFL based on a rookie. 

 

Chinn is a good player but he wouldn't have gotten the playing time in Buffalo. You're likely also taking Taron Johnson off the field to replace him with a big safety. I just don't see it. Chinn would have been used sparingly. 

Is it?  I don’t think it is. Chinn might have played “sparingly”, but he would have been used pretty routinely for these athletic tight ends like Kelce. So, yeah...I do think it would have been a different game plan. 
 

You’re entitled to your opinion, though. 

Edited January 29, 2021 by whorlnut

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, whorlnut said:

Is it?  I don’t think it is. Chinn might have played “sparingly”, but he would have been used pretty routinely for these athletic tight ends like Kelce. So, yeah...I do think it would have been a different game plan. 

They have a freak of a LB that they could have put in Kelce's face every snap. They have another very good cover LB they could have put in his face. They didn't attempt any of it. 

 

Saying McDermott would have lined up a rookie over Kelce and played him aggressively is a stretch. 

[whorlnut]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

They have a freak of a LB that they could have put in Kelce's face every snap. They have another very good cover LB they could have put in his face. They didn't attempt any of it. 

 

Saying McDermott would have lined up a rookie over Kelce and played him aggressively is a stretch. 

Is it?  Chinn is likely the defensive rookie of the year. He’s pretty good in his own right. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

9 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Is it?  Chinn is likely the defensive rookie of the year. He’s pretty good in his own right. 

Not all situations are equal. Who comes off the field? Taron Johnson, Matt Milano, Tremaine Edmunds, or Jordan Poyer? 

 

Would they use Edmunds more as a pass rusher? It changes the defense completely. I just don't know if he would have played. 

 

Let me add that a Chinn pick or that big safety pick would have likely been a depth pick planning on Milano's departure the following season. 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Buffalo Junction]

3 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Great point. Me too. Again, I hated the pick, but I was slowly getting used to envisioning Epenesa over power tackles and wreck the pocket. Now he looks like a completely different player. My point is...if the Bills wanted speed off the edge then why do you draft this guy in the first place?

I envisioned him at LDE setting the edge and pushing RTs into the QBs lap. Did not expect the newer slimmer version of Epenesa at all.... Don’t hate the pick as I figured that he’d take a year to figure it out as he improved his technique and hand fighting. Hope he’ll gain some functional strength and find a good middle ground where he maintains some of the burst he gained from the weight loss. 

[thenorthremembers]

18 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Is it?  Chinn is likely the defensive rookie of the year. He’s pretty good in his own right. 

Likely defensive rookie of the year?  Chase Young may have something to say about that.   He wasn't even the most productive or best safety drafted this year.  He was good this year, but Washington drafted a guy named Kamren Curl in the 7th round who outplayed Chinn.   

 

 

 

6 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

I envisioned him at LDE setting the edge and pushing RTs into the QBs lap. Did not expect the newer slimmer version of Epenesa at all.... Don’t hate the pick as I figured that he’d take a year to figure it out as he improved his technique and hand fighting. Hope he’ll gain some functional strength and find a good middle ground where he maintains some of the burst he gained from the weight loss. 

They drafted him because based on years of analysis by guys they pay very highly, Epenesa was the best football player on the board when they drafted.  

Edited January 29, 2021 by thenorthremembers

[Chuck Schick]

48 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

In general I think we need to quit trying to decide a player's value based on one season.

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Epenesa came in next year and showed massive improvement.. he obviously has talent and a good work ethic (this whole “twitchy” thing is so overrated). A full offseason with NFL coaching will do wonders. 

[Buffalo Junction]

1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

They drafted him because based on years of analysis by guys they pay very highly, Epenesa was the best football player on the board when they drafted.  

You’re kidding.... and here I was thinking that they drafted Epenesa because he was the lowest ranked player on their draft board. 🙄

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said:

Likely defensive rookie of the year?  Chase Young may have something to say about that.   He wasn't even the most productive or best safety drafted this year.  He was good this year, but Washington drafted a guy named Kamren Curl in the 7th round who outplayed Chinn.   

 

 

 

 

 

But I read here more than once that he was the rookie who would have gotten the Packers that SB win.....