100 percent agree with this—safeties should be worth more than 2 points

[dave mcbride]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nfl-safeties-should-be-worth-more-than-touchdowns/?cid=taboola_rcc_r
 

And if they were worth more, the Bills would have won a Super Bowl. 

[Prospector]

and field goals should be worth 2 points 1-29 yds, 3 points 30-59 yds, and 5 points for 60+

Edited April 21, 2020 by WorstTEever81

[glazeduck]

They ARE worth more than 2 pts. They're 2 pts and a turnover.

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

They ARE worth more than 2 pts. They're 2 pts and a turnover.

That is brought up in the piece and discussed at some length.

[GoBills808]

I think it needs to be addressed that safeties can only really occur within a very specific part of the field, whereas defensive TDs can happen from anywhere. So it's not simply that safeties occur more infrequently...imo you have to look at the ratio of how many plays run from inside the 3 result in safeties vs the ratio of overall defensive snaps that result in defensive TDs...I expect it will make defensive TDs as infrequent, if not rarer, than safeties.

[ALLEN1QB]

There was a thread on this last week somebody is not going to be happy with you

[Seasons1992]

36 minutes ago, WorstTEever81 said:

and field goals should be worth 2 points 1-29 yds, 3 points 30-59 yds, and 5 points for 60+

 

If you're of a certain age, you certainly will remember this: 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

51 minutes ago, WorstTEever81 said:

and field goals should be worth 2 points 1-29 yds, 3 points 30-59 yds, and 5 points for 60+

Makes sense but it'll be funny when a team down 4 takes an intentional 20 yard loss to set up a 60 yard game winning fg.

[YattaOkasan]

40 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think it needs to be addressed that safeties can only really occur within a very specific part of the field, whereas defensive TDs can happen from anywhere. So it's not simply that safeties occur more infrequently...imo you have to look at the ratio of how many plays run from inside the 3 result in safeties vs the ratio of overall defensive snaps that result in defensive TDs...I expect it will make defensive TDs as infrequent, if not rarer, than safeties.

but doesnt that just belie the point.  Since safeties can only occur on a certain part of the field they are more rare.  I feel as if they should be game changing plays are they hardly ever are.  Would love to see what would happen if they were worth more.  certainly punting it inside the 5 would be a huge stat.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I just saved 450$ by bundling my home, life and auto insurance. 

[PetermansRedemption]

50 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think it needs to be addressed that safeties can only really occur within a very specific part of the field, whereas defensive TDs can happen from anywhere. So it's not simply that safeties occur more infrequently...imo you have to look at the ratio of how many plays run from inside the 3 result in safeties vs the ratio of overall defensive snaps that result in defensive TDs...I expect it will make defensive TDs as infrequent, if not rarer, than safeties.

But shouldn’t that be taken in account when changing the points allowed for a safety? Not only do you need to make a tackle for a loss play, you have to first pin the opponent that deep to begin with. So you would have to take both probabilities and combine them. It isn’t simply the percentage of safeties that result when inside the 1. It would also need to take into account the probability of pinning your opponent inside the 3 so you actually have a legitimate chance at the safety play. It’s definitely a combined probability. 

[GoBills808]

10 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

but doesnt that just belie the point.  Since safeties can only occur on a certain part of the field they are more rare.  I feel as if they should be game changing plays are they hardly ever are.  Would love to see what would happen if they were worth more.  certainly punting it inside the 5 would be a huge stat.

 

Just now, PetermansRedemption said:

But shouldn’t that be taken in account when changing the points allowed for a safety? Not only do you need to make a tackle for a loss play, you have to first pin the opponent that deep to begin with. So you would have to take both probabilities and combine them. It isn’t simply the percentage of safeties that result when inside the 1. It would also need to take into account the probability of pinning your opponent inside the 3 so you actually have a legitimate chance at the safety play. It’s definitely a combined probability. 

My point was when you look at the specific circumstances that must occur by rule for a safety to be possible, they probably aren't as rare as they seem. 

[YattaOkasan]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

 

My point was when you look at the specific circumstances that must occur by rule for a safety to be possible, they probably aren't as rare as they seem. 

yeah thats not too surprising (nor would I disagree) but I think the counter is those specific circumstances are also pretty rare.

[Don Otreply]

A safety should be worth five (5) points and the ball, doing this would add more scoring and excitement to the game. 
I for one am all for such a changes. 
 

Go Bills!!!

Edited April 21, 2020 by Don Otreply

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Don Otreply said:

A safety should be worth five (5) points and the ball, I like Worstevers81’s field goal points concept as well. 
doing these things would add more scoring and excitement to the game. 
I for one am all for such changes. 
 

Go Bills!!!

Should touchdowns from the 20 be worth more than touchdowns from the 5? 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, glazeduck said:

They ARE worth more than 2 pts. They're 2 pts and a turnover.

Came here to say that. There's nothing more powerful in a game than a turnover. Completely changes momentum. Adding two points to that just makes a safety the ultimate play in football. No need to add more points.

[FireChans]

Safeties give you 2 points and the ball, which is potentially a 9 or 10 point swing. Safeties being worth a defensive TD and not the turn over takes away from them IMO.

[Don Otreply]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Should touchdowns from the 20 be worth more than touchdowns from the 5? 

TDs bump up to nine((9) points with traditional point after opportunities, I retract my statement on field goals. ?

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

29 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Makes sense but it'll be funny when a team down 4 takes an intentional 20 yard loss to set up a 60 yard game winning fg.

Ow.  Now my head hurts after contemplating that.  I look like Richie Kotite with that stunned look he always had when coaching the Jets.

[njbuff]

How about you get the option of the regular two points and a free kick, or.....................

 

No points and you get the ball at the opponents 20 yard line?

[MJS]

How about we keep everything regarding points in the game of football the same? It works and I like it. No need for a change.

[eball]

15 minutes ago, MJS said:

Came here to say that. There's nothing more powerful in a game than a turnover. Completely changes momentum. Adding two points to that just makes a safety the ultimate play in football. No need to add more points.

 

1 minute ago, MJS said:

How about we keep everything regarding points in the game of football the same? It works and I like it. No need for a change.

 

We hear your "GET OFF MY LAWN!" loud and clear.  Some of us like to look at things a bit more analytically.

[MJS]

Just now, eball said:

We hear your "GET OFF MY LAWN!" loud and clear.  Some of us like to look at things a bit more analytically.

I'm young and don't have a lawn. And I look at things as analytically as you or anyone else. Analytically, it makes sense to keep it the same.

[FireChans]

14 minutes ago, eball said:

 

 

We hear your "GET OFF MY LAWN!" loud and clear.  Some of us like to look at things a bit more analytically.

So analytical that you haven’t even posted anything in regards to the OP.

[Stank_Nasty]

I’m good with the safety. 2 points AND the ball is plenty. 
 

.... what I can’t freaking stand is if you fumble the ball out of the endzone while while going in to score, it’s a turnover. Take it back to the 15 or 20.  But for the love of god, that’s a stupid turnover rule. 

[patzen]

If a safety was worth eleven points as this article suggests teams would just punt at the one yard line on first down right? 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I’m good with the safety. 2 points AND the ball is plenty. 
 

.... what I can’t freaking stand is if you fumble the ball out of the endzone while while going in to score, it’s a turnover. Take it back to the 15 or 20.  But for the love of god, that’s a stupid turnover rule. 

I love it because it’s chaos. Nothing else really makes sense either. If you fumble out of the bounds in the end zone, you can’t get the ball in the end zone. Going back to the 20 doesn’t make sense, you turned it over. You shouldn’t get extra downs if you fumbled on third down.

 

It’s one of those weird rules that is kind of unchangeable.

[Hardhatharry]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nfl-safeties-should-be-worth-more-than-touchdowns/?cid=taboola_rcc_r
 

And if they were worth more, the Bills would have won a Super Bowl. 

Well it's 2 points and the team has to punt the ball to you.

[Mr. WEO]

Pick six should be worth 10.

 

I mean....why not?  That'll teach 'em.

[eball]

31 minutes ago, MJS said:

I'm young and don't have a lawn. And I look at things as analytically as you or anyone else. Analytically, it makes sense to keep it the same.

 

Your answer is the opposite of an analytical take on whether a safety should be worth more than 2 points.  Your position is even mocked in the article.

[YattaOkasan]

51 minutes ago, MJS said:

Came here to say that. There's nothing more powerful in a game than a turnover. Completely changes momentum. Adding two points to that just makes a safety the ultimate play in football. No need to add more points.

 

48 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Safeties give you 2 points and the ball, which is potentially a 9 or 10 point swing. Safeties being worth a defensive TD and not the turn over takes away from them IMO.

But its not a turnover or even really close.  Average field position after a safety (as described in the article) is much worse than average field position after a turnover.  Its actually probably worth less points than a turnover from the same position on the field.  Its overall undervalued.  maybe 2 points and the ball at opponents 35 you could convince me but 2 points and return is not so valuable.

 

Teams have taken safeties at the end of close games to seal wins cause its worth so little value.  That should tell you all you need to know about how much its worth.

[MJS]

11 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Your answer is the opposite of an analytical take on whether a safety should be worth more than 2 points.  Your position is even mocked in the article.

It's not the opposite. My analytical approach is just as valid as yours: "a safety should be worth more because they are cool, man!"

[Stank_Nasty]

31 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I love it because it’s chaos. Nothing else really makes sense either. If you fumble out of the bounds in the end zone, you can’t get the ball in the end zone. Going back to the 20 doesn’t make sense, you turned it over. You shouldn’t get extra downs if you fumbled on third down.

 

It’s one of those weird rules that is kind of unchangeable.

Well it’s not a turnover anywhere else on the field. It’s unnecessary chaos. Loss of down and move it back. If it’s 4th down its turnover and touchback. It’s a very easy fix to a silly rule. 

[FireChans]

9 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Well it’s not a turnover anywhere else on the field. It’s unnecessary chaos. Loss of down and move it back. If it’s 4th down its turnover and touchback. It’s a very easy fix to a silly rule. 

Move it back where?

[Gugny]

How many points should it be if a player catches a kickoff in the end zone, then tosses it to the ref, who lets it fall to the ground ... then said ball is picked up by the kicking team?

[Stank_Nasty]

11 minutes ago, Gugny said:

How many points should it be if a player catches a kickoff in the end zone, then tosses it to the ref, who lets it fall to the ground ... then said ball is picked up by the kicking team?

.... depends on who you want to win. 
 

If the scoring team would be the bills and they’ve sucked forever so nobody cares if they get screwed or cares to see them advance ..... then zero points. 

Edited April 21, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[GoBills808]

21 minutes ago, Gugny said:

How many points should it be if a player catches a kickoff in the end zone, then tosses it to the ref, who lets it fall to the ground ... then said ball is picked up by the kicking team?

500 minimum

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

A safety should be worth five (5) points and the ball, doing this would add more scoring and excitement to the game. 
I for one am all for such a changes. 
 

Go Bills!!!

Yeah, I was thinking a five-point play too. That makes sense. It's a hard play to make, it's rare, and it's an awesome play to boot. 

 

Bills defeat the Giants, 22-17 (because the Giants go for it on fourth down and fail instead of going for the FG to go up 20-19).

[GoBills808]

...I mean if people really want to get into scoring the minutiae we already have fantasy football. 

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Hardhatharry said:

Well it's 2 points and the team has to punt the ball to you.

You're the second person to mention this. This issue is literally described in exacting detail in the article.

Just now, GoBills808 said:

...I mean if people really want to get into scoring the minutiae we already have fantasy football. 

It's a great play and it's a football play (rather then a set-piece ST play). It's rare. And it's worth less than a garden-variety FG, the most boring play in the game outside of kickoff touchbacks. Moreover, it's worth 2 points because .... some guy in the 1890s assigned it two points.