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Joe B - How I Would Draft For the Bills If I Were Brandon Beane


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3 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:

Joe Buscaglia mocked the Bills draft by trying to run a draft as Brandon Beane’s thinking. Here’s who he came up with.  Also he did simulate a draft using The Draft Network’s simulator:
 

You can read all of the analysis and his rationale below:

https://theathletic.com/1722463/2020/04/03/how-i-would-draft-for-the-bills-if-im-brandon-beane/?source=shared-article

 

Round 2 - Kyle Duggar  S   Lenoir Ryne

Round 3 - Bryan Edwards WR  South Carolina 

Round 4 - John Simpson OL Clemson

Round 5 - Lamical Perine RB  Florida

Round 7 - Charlie Heck OT  North Carolina

 

I don’t know how much I love the picks.  He said that Duggar would allow the team to basically be a Nickel defense and could help offset the loss of Lorenzo Alexander.

 

Instead of drafting Perine, I would rather give up one of the lower picks and trade up to take Zack Moss.  

 

The team is already a nickel defense, they were in it over 75% of the time last year.

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3 hours ago, dubs said:

agree terrible mock. But disagree that RB is a “need”. I would calL RB perhaps the least need on the team. 
 

1) it’s a devalued position

2) have a second year back that played very well last year, and used a 3rd on him last year. 
3) serviceable backs are always available in FA. 
4) worst case scenario, throw more

 

 

I'm a big believer that GMs shouldn't throw out 1st Round draft picks or big contacts at the Running Back position.  Totally agree there.

But let's not go to the extreme the opposite direction.

 

The sweet spot for drafting a Running Back is the 2nd-3rd Round.  

After that, the probability of success drops pretty quickly.  Just like every other position.  Most Day 3/UDFA picks aren't going to make it.  Even playing RB.

 

People consider RB a need, because you technically need two backs in today's NFL.  

Devin Singletary was very good as a rookie, but the drop-off was huge when Frank Gore or TJ Yeldon entered the game.

 

 

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2 hours ago, ScorpionZero said:

I'd rather have chinn over dugger, I'f we're going small school. Edge in 3rd and Dillon in 4th. Add wr's after that. 

 

Agreed.  Dugger is this year's measurables darling IMO.    No way he can step into the NFL and play a meaningful role, other than ST this year...

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If we wanna make the offense, dynamic. We should draft a rb thumper and a multidimensional player like Antonio Gibson/ Joe Reed. and some length in the latter rounds. I think Beane did what he did in free agency so he could go offensive in the draft. Plus we're still in stage 2 of free agency. With stage 3 coming after the draft to 3rd preseason game. We're gonna do so good this offseason that we'll be trading and adding picks to next year's draft.

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17 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

I'm a big believer that GMs shouldn't throw out 1st Round draft picks or big contacts at the Running Back position.  Totally agree there.

But let's not go to the extreme the opposite direction.

 

The sweet spot for drafting a Running Back is the 2nd-3rd Round.  

After that, the probability of success drops pretty quickly.  Just like every other position.  Most Day 3/UDFA picks aren't going to make it.  Even playing RB.

 

People consider RB a need, because you technically need two backs in today's NFL.  

Devin Singletary was very good as a rookie, but the drop-off was huge when Frank Gore or TJ Yeldon entered the game.

 

 


I would not use a mid round pick on an RB this year. They did that last year and this year, esp with no first, there’s way too many needs. OL, Edge, WR, DB, And even QB would be higher priority for me than RB. There are probably 6 RBs that would be suitable backups to Motor that are FAs. 

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dugger is going to take 3-4 years to develop into a top player (if he ever does)

 

we don't need players like that. we need immediate impact guys. draft a WR or RB in the 2nd, don't even think about defense right now. 

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5 hours ago, dubs said:


agree terrible mock. But disagree that RB is a “need”. I would calL RB perhaps the least need on the team. 
 

1) it’s a devalued position

2) have a second year back that played very well last year, and used a 3rd on him last year. 
3) serviceable backs are always available in FA. 
4) worst case scenario, throw more

 

 

 

So if Singletary gets hurt (he missed 5 games last year) you're good with Yeldon?

 

RB is currently their biggest need right now.

 

They don't have a roster spot to fit a pass rusher with all the DL they added in FA.

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6 hours ago, Process said:

What a horrific mock. Two biggest needs are pash rusher and RB and we won't address either until Rd 5? 

 

 

Its important to read the article.  He lays out the rationale at each stage of the draft.  When you read that and what teams in front of us may do, its a lot clearer as to how he got there

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4 hours ago, ScorpionZero said:

I'd rather have chinn over dugger, I'f we're going small school. Edge in 3rd and Dillon in 4th. Add wr's after that. 

I'd be curious if Chinn was there too when he did the mock.  Joe Marino called Chinn a better version of Dugger and 2 years younger.  

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4 hours ago, Logic said:

All those stating they would hate Dugger at 54 may want to try to come around to the idea, because in my opinion, it’s a reasonable possibility.

 

For one thing, as Joe B says, it would allow the Bills to basically operate out of nickel at all times and not lose anything against the run.

 

If the quality offensive tackles are off the board, there isn’t an edge rusher that presents good value, and they feel good about their CB2 position, a safety might well be the BPA.

 

The WR crop is deep enough that they can wait until round 3, 4, or even 5. Running back, too, is a position that might be best addressed in rounds 3 or 4. So again, where does that leave pick number 54? BPA...and if that’s Dugger, then so be it. Lord knows I trust Beane asa talent evaluator, and I trust this regime in general when it comes to the defensive backfield.

 

 

 

I think it is absolutely on the table. Wouldn't love it but do think more than possible. 

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1 hour ago, BobChalmers said:

 

So if Singletary gets hurt (he missed 5 games last year) you're good with Yeldon?

 

RB is currently their biggest need right now.

 

They don't have a roster spot to fit a pass rusher with all the DL they added in FA.


like I said, sign an FA. You used a 3rd on an RB last year, I would NOT use a 2 or 3 on one this year. It’s not complicated. 

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53 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

I'd be curious if Chinn was there too when he did the mock.  Joe Marino called Chinn a better version of Dugger and 2 years younger.  

 

Joe had him taken a couple of spots before, at pick #51 (Cowboys)...

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47 minutes ago, bigK14094 said:

Taron Johnson and S Neal are both playing the niclel.  Neal is the more physical and played a bit in it this past year.  I am guessing a safety early isn't in the cards. Joe got that wrong...but, I always read him.

 

 

Did he?

 

May I borrow your crystal ball when you’re done with it?

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8 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:

Joe Buscaglia mocked the Bills draft by trying to run a draft as Brandon Beane’s thinking. Here’s who he came up with.  Also he did simulate a draft using The Draft Network’s simulator:
 

You can read all of the analysis and his rationale below:

https://theathletic.com/1722463/2020/04/03/how-i-would-draft-for-the-bills-if-im-brandon-beane/?source=shared-article

 

Round 2 - Kyle Duggar  S   Lenoir Ryne

Round 3 - Bryan Edwards WR  South Carolina 

Round 4 - John Simpson OL Clemson

Round 5 - Lamical Perine RB  Florida

Round 7 - Charlie Heck OT  North Carolina

 

I don’t know how much I love the picks.  He said that Duggar would allow the team to basically be a Nickel defense and could help offset the loss of Lorenzo Alexander.

 

Instead of drafting Perine, I would rather give up one of the lower picks and trade up to take Zack Moss.  


id actually be really happy with that draft. I love Perine!

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The RB debate is compelling. Nice to see a number of you here recognizing the NEED for another RB who isn't JustAGuy.

 

Singletary missed time last season, and as noted, hasn't yet displayed: a nose for the endzone (could've been due in part to Gore being the primary goal line guy) or a knack for receiving (definitely needs to develop there), pass-blocking, and straight-line power. I like the player. He's fun to watch, and effective. But he's not the only piece a versatile offense needs back there. And we know the Bills want to be versatile. 

 

Yeldon brings (sneaky effective) pass-catching. Full stop.

 

The roster has no power or speed at RB. 

 

Maybe they sign a FA who fills the void. But many of us think a 2nd or 3rd round pick could land a dynamic weapon who would help the offense more than any other pick in those rounds. 

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5 hours ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:


id actually be really happy with that draft. I love Perine!

I’d be okay with it. Duggar would have to be a hit though. I do think Perine is underrated; partly because his Oline was so bad and partly because he’s not really exceptional at anything. His one great trait is vision and decision making before getting to the LOS which isn’t usable with a bad oline. Kid can press, make the LBers commit, then nail a lane. With a poor line though..... 

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17 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:

Joe Buscaglia mocked the Bills draft by trying to run a draft as Brandon Beane’s thinking. Here’s who he came up with.  Also he did simulate a draft using The Draft Network’s simulator:
 

You can read all of the analysis and his rationale below:

https://theathletic.com/1722463/2020/04/03/how-i-would-draft-for-the-bills-if-im-brandon-beane/?source=shared-article

 

Round 2 - Kyle Duggar  S   Lenoir Ryne

Round 3 - Bryan Edwards WR  South Carolina 

Round 4 - John Simpson OL Clemson

Round 5 - Lamical Perine RB  Florida

Round 7 - Charlie Heck OT  North Carolina

 

I don’t know how much I love the picks.  He said that Duggar would allow the team to basically be a Nickel defense and could help offset the loss of Lorenzo Alexander.

 

Instead of drafting Perine, I would rather give up one of the lower picks and trade up to take Zack Moss.  

 

 

 

Makes sense, though I know very very little about Simpson and nothing about Heck. I like the other three picks, though, and think that if Duggar is still available he's one of the most likely options. Joe has them trading up to get him. I doubt they trade up as far as he guesses, but it doesn't seem impossible. I doubt he wants to give up his third, even if he gets a 4th in exchange, myself.

 

We'll see.

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17 hours ago, Process said:

No one values rbs less then I do but it's absolutely a need.

 

 

I don't think it's absolute. Fans here don't, but it's clear that the FO really likes Yeldon. Having said that, I think they get another RB, whether it's in the draft or FA. 

 

To me, less of an absolute need and more of a position that could definitely use an upgrade and more depth.

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16 hours ago, Augie said:

 

When Singletary pulls a hammy or gets a high ankle sprain people will appreciate the need for a RB 1B. 

 

 

While that's certainly true, it's also true at most positions on the team. If any of our starters pulls a hammy or gets a high ankle sprain, the level goes down. If Allen goes down? Diggs? John Brown? Beasley? Will we lose something when maybe McKenzie, Duke or Foster steps in? Any OT? Oliver? Edmunds? Milano? Feliciano? Poyer or Hyde? White? Knox? I'm not really including the positions where we have platoons, but it's just as true there. The platoon guy steps in and is decent and capable but then who platoons him? We have more solid depth than we've had in a long time, but nearly any starter being hurt will cause problems. Same with most team and positions in the league, really.

 

Again, I expect another RB will be brought in but I greatly doubt it's in the 2nd, or at least not unless Swift or Taylor somehow fall a long way or something like that.

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1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I don't think it's absolute. Fans here don't, but it's clear that the FO really likes Yeldon. Having said that, I think they get another RB, whether it's in the draft or FA. 

 

To me, less of an absolute need and more of a position that could definitely use an upgrade and more depth.

If you look at where Singletary fit in the rankings of RB, he is around #20.  He is also notably fair to poor in pass receiving. A SB team should have a RB in the top 10, if they can.  That is what the draft is for and this year there are some studs available.

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1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

While that's certainly true, it's also true at most positions on the team. If any of our starters pulls a hammy or gets a high ankle sprain, the level goes down. If Allen goes down? Diggs? John Brown? Beasley? Will we lose something when maybe McKenzie, Duke or Foster steps in? Any OT? Oliver? Edmunds? Milano? Feliciano? Poyer or Hyde? White? Knox? I'm not really including the positions where we have platoons, but it's just as true there. The platoon guy steps in and is decent and capable but then who platoons him? We have more solid depth than we've had in a long time, but nearly any starter being hurt will cause problems. Same with most team and positions in the league, really.

 

Again, I expect another RB will be brought in but I greatly doubt it's in the 2nd, or at least not unless Swift or Taylor somehow fall a long way or something like that.

Most positions on the team have backups who are pretty close to the starting player and play a similar position. There are a few positions (QB, #1 WR, #1 CB) where there are not enough high calibre players in the league to allow a similarily skilled backup.   Our backup at RB only played in 4 games and got 15 carries for 64 yards.  We need an upgrade from him and a RB who will be rated better than #20 in the league.

 

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48 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Most positions on the team have backups who are pretty close to the starting player and play a similar position. There are a few positions (QB, #1 WR, #1 CB) where there are not enough high calibre players in the league to allow a similarily skilled backup.   Our backup at RB only played in 4 games and got 15 carries for 64 yards.  We need an upgrade from him and a RB who will be rated better than #20 in the league.

 

RB isn't that big of a need.

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18 hours ago, Logic said:

All those stating they would hate Dugger at 54 may want to try to come around to the idea, because in my opinion, it’s a reasonable possibility.

 

For one thing, as Joe B says, it would allow the Bills to basically operate out of nickel at all times and not lose anything against the run.

 

If the quality offensive tackles are off the board, there isn’t an edge rusher that presents good value, and they feel good about their CB2 position, a safety might well be the BPA.

 

The WR crop is deep enough that they can wait until round 3, 4, or even 5. Running back, too, is a position that might be best addressed in rounds 3 or 4. So again, where does that leave pick number 54? BPA...and if that’s Dugger, then so be it. Lord knows I trust Beane asa talent evaluator, and I trust this regime in general when it comes to the defensive backfield.

 

 

I’ve seen Perine’s (pronounced P-ryne) entire career @ Florida. He can make something out nothing but is also caught up a lot at the LOS. Not ‘Gore bad’, but not dependable in short yardage. Give him a seam though, and he’s terrific!

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3 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

If you look at where Singletary fit in the rankings of RB, he is around #20.  He is also notably fair to poor in pass receiving. A SB team should have a RB in the top 10, if they can.  That is what the draft is for and this year there are some studs available.

 

 

Nonsense in every single way. First, there's no particular reason an SB team should have an RB in the top ten other than because you, some guy on the internet says so.

 

Singletary is #24. San Francisco's highest-ranked RB was Mostert, at #25 and KC's was Damien Williams at #39. I somehow doubt that KC is telling themselves that last year was a failure for them because even though they took home the Lombardi their best RB was only #39.

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3 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Most positions on the team have backups who are pretty close to the starting player and play a similar position. There are a few positions (QB, #1 WR, #1 CB) where there are not enough high calibre players in the league to allow a similarily skilled backup.   Our backup at RB only played in 4 games and got 15 carries for 64 yards.  We need an upgrade from him and a RB who will be rated better than #20 in the league.

 

 

 

Again, simply not true. Right now, our #4 WR is probably McKenzie. To say that he is pretty close to any of our top three is utterly ridiculous. Yes, you're right that "there are a few positions where there are not enough high calibre players in the league to allow a similarly skilled backup." Yes, you're dead on about that. A quick rundown of the positions where that is true are these: QB, RB, OT, OG, C, TE, WR, DT, DE, LB, S and CB. In fact, if I missed any, you can throw those in too.

 

As I pointed out earlier:

 

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

If any of our starters pulls a hammy or gets a high ankle sprain, the level goes down. If Allen goes down? Diggs? John Brown? Beasley? Will we lose something when maybe McKenzie, Duke or Foster steps in? Any OT? Oliver? Edmunds? Milano? Feliciano? Poyer or Hyde? White? Knox? I'm not really including the positions where we have platoons, but it's just as true there. The platoon guy steps in and is decent and capable but then who platoons him? We have more solid depth than we've had in a long time, but nearly any starter being hurt will cause problems. Same with most team and positions in the league, really.

 

 

And as for the idea that yards last year shows how good you are ... ridiculous on the face of it. If you could measure how good an RB is exactly by his production last year, then Melvin Gordon is the 32nd best RB in the league, and Saquon Barkley is the 16th best. The idea's ridiculous. The FO last year had a spectacular man crush on Frank Gore and as such weren't interested in putting our #3 out there much. But the few times when he got out there, Yeldon did a pretty good job. You may not like him, but the Bills do.

 

And again, that #20 thing is utter horse manure, as can be seen by checking the production of KC and SF's backs last year. What we need is a guy who can do a good solid job. They appear to think that Yeldon is that guy. Though again, it's very very possible that they'll bring in another RB in FA or later in the draft.

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23 hours ago, Process said:

What a horrific mock. Two biggest needs are pash rusher and RB and we won't address either until Rd 5? 

 

We don't have a NEED. A young DE for the future can be gotten next year with the 1st pick. This draft is setup for the best available player. That could be a QB, who knows. This team doesn't need any specific position. Our starters and backups are set. You need players who might beat someone out or they won't even make the Roster.

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14 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 in

 

Again, simply not true. Right now, our #4 WR is probably McKenzie. To say that he is pretty close to any of our top three is utterly ridiculous. 

 

And if you could measure how good an RB is exactly by his production last year, then Melvin Gordon is the 32nd best RB in the league, and Saquon Barkley is the 16th best. The idea's ridiculous. The FO last year had a spectacular man crush on Frank Gore and as such weren't interested in putting our #3 out there much. But the few times when he got out there, he did a pretty good job. You may not like him, but the Bills do.

 

And again, that #20 thing is utter horse manure, as can be seen by checking the production of KC and SF's backs last year. What we need is a guy who can do a good solid job. They appear to think that Yeldon is that guy. Though again, it's very very possible that they'll bring in another RB in FA or later in the draft.

Yep.  Everything except you opinion is horse manure.   People who grade RB's are all horse manure.  Low yardage production from Singletary doesn't count. 2 TD's a year is not important.  Of course. 

By the way, Singletary ranked #48 among pass receivers in 2019.  41 catches for 194 yards.  The top RB got over a 1000 yards, the top 7 got over 500, the top 32 got over 233 yards.  If you wanted the Bills to do good this coming year, maybe an upgrade in the RB passing game would be nice?  Naw.  Just a HS idea.                     https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019

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1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Yep.  Everything except you opinion is horse manure.   People who grade RB's are all horse manure.  Low yardage production from Singletary doesn't count. 2 TD's a year is not important.  Of course. 

By the way, Singletary ranked #48 among pass receivers in 2019.  41 catches for 194 yards.  The top RB got over a 1000 yards, the top 7 got over 500, the top 32 got over 233 yards.  If you wanted the Bills to do good this coming year, maybe an upgrade in the RB passing game would be nice?  Naw.  Just a HS idea.                     https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019

 

 

Please. Nice straw man. I'm supposed to have said, according to you, that "everything except [my] opinion is horse manure"? Again ... please. I was pointing out one particular argument, your contention that his production meant that Singletary was the 20th best RB in the league and that any Super Bowl team needed a guy in the top ten. I apologize for the "manure" comment. Poorly chosen word. Let me choose a less harsh word, and say instead that it was ridiculous, particularly as you only have to go back about two months to find a Super Bowl team without a single RB with production in the top 23, much less the top ten. And again, the winning team's most successful RB was ranked #39 by production.

 

I am saying specifically - and I'll repeat since it seems to be necessary - that thinking that you can judge how good an RB is by looking only at how many yards he put up last year is nonsense, as it would mean Saquon Barkley would be the 16th best in the league and that Melvin Gordon would be the 32nd best. Which again, is on the face of it absolutely unreasonable.

 

But if you want to argue now - switching yet again the ground of your argument - that Singletary sucks, hey, go to it. Doesn't make any sense to me, but ... whatever. You go, boy.

 

Further, if we need an upgrade in the RB passing game, first maybe we could throw it more to Singletary and have him work on his skills, and second, as it happens, Yeldon has proven himself a fine pass catcher.

 

Or we could bring in an FA like Lamar Miller or Ty Montgomery. Or draft Zack Moss or Eno Benjamin, to pick two of several with some pass catching success. 

 

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2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Please. Nice straw man. I'm supposed to have said, according to you, that "everything except [my] opinion is horse manure"? Again ... please. I was pointing out one particular argument, your contention that his production meant that Singletary was the 20th best RB in the league and that any Super Bowl team needed a guy in the top ten. I apologize for the "manure" comment. Poorly chosen word. Let me choose a less harsh word, and say instead that it was ridiculous, particularly as you only have to go back about two months to find a Super Bowl team without a single RB with production in the top 23, much less the top ten. And again, the winning team's most successful RB was ranked #39 by production.

 

I am saying specifically - and I'll repeat since it seems to be necessary - that thinking that you can judge how good an RB is by looking only at how many yards he put up last year is nonsense, as it would mean Saquon Barkley would be the 16th best in the league and that Melvin Gordon would be the 32nd best. Which again, is on the face of it absolutely unreasonable.

 

But if you want to argue now - switching yet again the ground of your argument - that Singletary sucks, hey, go to it. Doesn't make any sense to me, but ... whatever. You go, boy.

 

Further, if we need an upgrade in the RB passing game, first maybe we could throw it more to Singletary and have him work on his skills, and second, as it happens, Yeldon has proven himself a fine pass catcher.

 

Or we could bring in an FA like Lamar Miller or Ty Montgomery. Or draft Zack Moss or Eno Benjamin, to pick two of several with some pass catching success. 

 

Singletary is 22th in rushing and 44th in receiving.  There are 32 teams in the league.  There are about a dozen teams that have TWO running backs with more receiving yards than Singletary.    We need an upgrade.  Beane has said  that he wants players who can score touchdowns.  Singletary has two.  Facts do matter.

 

 

"All right everyone, line up alphabetically according to your height."     Casey Stangel

 

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5 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Singletary is 22th in rushing and 44th in receiving.  There are 32 teams in the league.  There are about a dozen teams that have TWO running backs with more receiving yards than Singletary.    We need an upgrade.  Beane has said  that he wants players who can score touchdowns.  Singletary has two.  Facts do matter.

 

 

"All right everyone, line up alphabetically according to your height."     Casey Stangel

 


Singletary was 30th in rushing attempts and 4th in yards per rush. Those are really the only two stats that matter in this discussion. 
 

 

Edited by dubs
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