Justin Jefferson should be our WR target at 22

[Lurker]

29 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Yeah seriously.

 

Have to ? at the “he’s not a WR1” stuff...exactly which ‘Bama WR was the WR1?

 

Well, in this year's "Iron Bowl" with Auburn--the best college game I saw all season--it was...Waddle (although Ruggs wasn't that far behind)...

 

 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=401110865

[Allen2Moulds]

Justin Jefferson looks a lot like Robert Woods to me. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have a Robert Woods on our team, but not as a 1, or X receiver. 

[Teddy KGB]

12 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Well, in this year's "Iron Bowl" with Auburn--the best college game I saw all season--it was...Waddle (although Ruggs wasn't that far behind)...

 

 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=401110865

I like the other LSU WR, who went crazy vs Clemson. 

[DJB]

31 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

I like the other LSU WR, who went crazy vs Clemson. 

 

I think that's Jamaar Chase. 

 

Hes going top 5 probably next year

[Lurker]

8 minutes ago, DJB said:

 

I think that's Jamaar Chase. 

 

Hes going top 5 probably next year

 

Yes he is.  He's the best WR in college football.   Better than Lamb and Jeudy, IMO...

[bouds]

Love this kid, reminds me of Robert Woods. 

[Shaw66]

11 hours ago, Plano said:

too short.

 

We need a WR that is at least 6'5"

Maybe 6'9".

[BillsFan17]

To me Jefferson projects as a high end slot guy. Which, let's be honest a lot of players have made very strong careers lining up as a slot. The position has evolved. To be honest, if the kid ends up massively productive as just that, a slot, are we really going to gripe?

 

Especially with how Daboll has helped Josh in the short to intermediate game. Yes, we want that dynamic homerun threat, but having a sure handed, nifty route runner who is going to move the chains and be a redzone mismatch, I'll take that all day.

[Yantha]

Pretty hard to argue against taking this kid at 22.  Awesome talent.

[CajunBillsBacker]

50 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said:

To me Jefferson projects as a high end slot guy. Which, let's be honest a lot of players have made very strong careers lining up as a slot. The position has evolved. To be honest, if the kid ends up massively productive as just that, a slot, are we really going to gripe?

 

Especially with how Daboll has helped Josh in the short to intermediate game. Yes, we want that dynamic homerun threat, but having a sure handed, nifty route runner who is going to move the chains and be a redzone mismatch, I'll take that all day.

This guy has it figured out.

 

Josh Allen is at his best throwing lasers in the 10-20 yard range. A deep threat WR won’t fix Josh’s deep ball accuracy as much as some want to believe. Josh would be best served having a couple receivers who can find space in the intermediate range and make a contested catch. That’s what Jefferson does best.

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, DCOrange said:

 

Just curious what your WR rankings are since you and I seem to see things pretty similarly in general. I think we view Jefferson mostly the same way but I'd still be willing to consider him in the first round. Not my preferred choice but I think he's worth considering based on who will likely be available at 22.

 

My receiver rankings are 

 

#1 Jeudy

#2 Lamb

#3 Ruggs

- - - - 

#4 Higgins

#5 Aiyuk

#6 Reagor

#7 Hamler

#8 Jefferson

#9 Shenault

#10 Mims

- - - -

#11 Pittman

#12 Claypool

 

I'd consider Jefferson at the end of the first if I was a team like Green Bay or New Orleans who are looking for a running mate. If I was a team looking for someone who could be a main dog and play primarily outside (which is I think where the Bills are) then Jefferson wouldn't be for me in the first.

Edited March 7, 2020 by GunnerBill

[row_33]

The annual fall in love with a WR because he looked great the one game you saw him play thing

 

The greatest NFL  players have rarely come out of top programs....

 

 This is so cute and sweet and laughable every year

[aristocrat]

31 minutes ago, row_33 said:

The annual fall in love with a WR because he looked great the one game you saw him play thing

 

The greatest NFL  players have rarely come out of top programs....

 

 This is so cute and sweet and laughable every year

 

top 10 wr's in yards all went to big programs except for golladay-northern illioois, and cooper kupp eastern washington. dj moore went to maryland.  rest were, lsu, penn st, bama, ohio st, etc.  

[thebandit27]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My receiver rankings are 

 

#1 Jeudy

#2 Lamb

#3 Ruggs

- - - - 

#4 Higgins

#5 Aiyuk

#6 Reagor

#7 Hamler

#8 Jefferson

#9 Shenault

#10 Mims

- - - -

#11 Pittman

#12 Claypool

 

I'd consider Jefferson at the end of the first if I was a team like Green Bay or New Orleans who are looking for a running mate. If I was a team looking for someone who could be a main dog and play primarily outside (which is I think where the Bills are) then Jefferson wouldn't be for me in the first.

Swap Jefferson and Higgins and draw a tier between 7 and 8 and those are my rankings.

[Troll Toll]

Watched the highlights... not really that impressed. Too little separation, just wait until he faces NFL corners every week. From what Beane said, Ruggs is the only guy that could come anywhere close to fitting their Tyreek Hill description. After watching the video available on the receivers this year, I don’t think any of them project to the NFL (and as receivers to compliment Allen specifically) as well as AJ Brown and DK Metcalf did last year. Beane and scouting really blew it by passing on those guys who were gift wrapped for us in round 2 last year. They would be like having 2 #1 receivers, paired with Brown and Beasley.
 

Is Ruggs even as good as Hollywood Brown?

 

This has the feeling of the year we drafted Manuel because we were dead set on going QB. Although WR is definitely our biggest need, I’d start looking at other positions.

 

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Troll Toll said:

Watched the highlights... not really that impressed. Too little separation, just wait until he faces NFL corners every week. From what Beane said, Ruggs is the only guy that could come anywhere close to fitting their Tyreek Hill description. After watching the video available on the receivers this year, I don’t think any of them project to the NFL (and as receivers to compliment Allen specifically) as well as AJ Brown and DK Metcalf did last year. Beane and scouting really blew it by passing on those guys who were gift wrapped for us in round 2 last year. They would be like having 2 #1 receivers, paired with Brown and Beasley.
 

Is Ruggs even as good as Hollywood Brown?

 

This has the feeling of the year we drafted Manuel because we were dead set on going QB. Although WR is definitely our biggest need, I’d start looking at other positions.

 

This can’t be a serious post

[BillsFan17]

1 hour ago, row_33 said:

The annual fall in love with a WR because he looked great the one game you saw him play thing

 

The greatest NFL  players have rarely come out of top programs....

 

 This is so cute and sweet and laughable every year

Michael Thomas- OSU

Julio Jones- 'Bama

ODB- LSU

Hopkins- Clemson

Keenan Allen- Cal

Robinson- Penn State

Boyd- U of Pitt.

Robert Woods- USC

Godwin- PSU

 

 

All-in-all, I too would stay away from the big schools when looking for WRs. 

 

That being said, sarcasm aside Rhode Island has a kid Isaiah Coulter that could be a big time sleeper.

 

 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

What happened to Shenault? A few weeks ago he was the guy (even though I’d never heard of him). Now he’s hardly mentioned even in later rounds. 

[DCOrange]

17 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

What happened to Shenault? A few weeks ago he was the guy (even though I’d never heard of him). Now he’s hardly mentioned even in later rounds. 

He’s viewed as a Round 2 guy now after his disappointing 40 time, skipping the other drills, and getting surgery. 

[Troll Toll]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

This can’t be a serious post

I’m serious. If I were in Beane’s position, the only receivers I would be looking at are:

 

1) CeeDee Lamb (Round 1)

2) Tee Higgins (Round 2)

3) Brandon Aiyuk (Round 2)

4) Laviska Shenault (Round 3)

These guys would make the Bills better. 
 

That said, none of these guys are the matchup nightmare for CBs that AJ Brown and DK Metcalf are. CeeDee Lamb will likely be gone by the Bills pick, but I would be hard pressed to trade up for him. I think the Bills will either have to go a different direction Round 1 or trade back to get real value.

 

As for the other receivers I take off the board:

Jeudy - his running style is a knee injury waiting to happen

Ruggs - I question his production and his completeness as a receiver. He seems to be somewhere between Hollywood Brown and Parris Campbell in terms of ability. 

Hamler - too small 

Jefferson - lack of separation 

Reagor - inconsistent / disappears

Claypool / Pittman / Mims - unimpressive on tape

 

 

 

 

 

[BUNCH OF MULARKEY]

23 hours ago, Plano said:

too short.

 

We need a WR that is at least 6'5"

[thebandit27]

16 minutes ago, Troll Toll said:

I’m serious. If I were in Beane’s position, the only receivers I would be looking at are:

 

1) CeeDee Lamb (Round 1)

2) Tee Higgins (Round 2)

3) Brandon Aiyuk (Round 2)

4) Laviska Shenault (Round 3)

These guys would make the Bills better. 
 

That said, none of these guys are the matchup nightmare for CBs that AJ Brown and DK Metcalf are. CeeDee Lamb will likely be gone by the Bills pick, but I would be hard pressed to trade up for him. I think the Bills will either have to go a different direction Round 1 or trade back to get real value.

 

As for the other receivers I take off the board:

Jeudy - his running style is a knee injury waiting to happen

Ruggs - I question his production and his completeness as a receiver. He seems to be somewhere between Hollywood Brown and Parris Campbell in terms of ability. 

Hamler - too small 

Jefferson - lack of separation 

Reagor - inconsistent / disappears

Claypool / Pittman / Mims - unimpressive on tape

 

 

 

 

 

Well, I couldn’t possibly disagree more on Jeudy, Ruggs, Hamler, and Jefferson.

[OldTimer1960]

20 hours ago, yungmack said:

At the combine, the supposedly 6'2'' Shenault came in at under 6'1''. Slow 40 time but he was injured and is having "core" surgery. I liked him in college but I don't see what need he fills for the Bills.

Shenault measured 6’ 5/8” and 227 pounds.  John Brown is listed at 5’11” 178 pounds and Cole Beasley is 5’8” 174.

 

Shenault is almost 50 pounds bigger than Brown.

 

I’m not the biggest Shenault fan (at least as a 1st round option - somewhere in round 2 sign me up), but he isn’t at all similar to Brown or Beasley.

[Coach Tuesday]

If they make that pick, I’d hope they pick Van Jefferson in Round 3, and go all in with “The Jeffersons” theme for 2020.  Imagine New Era blasting “Movin’ On Up” every time either of those guys catch the ball or score a TD.  Would be sick!

[OldTimer1960]

18 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

There is a huge dropoff after Jeudy & Lamb. Not sure Ruggs is nothing more than Tavon Austin.  If we do consider trading down and adding 2nd/ 3rd round picks we might as well target Mims or Claypool. Even Higgins & Shenault are going to fall.

Ruggs is 3” taller and 14 pounds heavier than Austin was.  That is a significant difference.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, OldTimer1960 said:

Ruggs is 3” taller and 14 pounds heavier than Austin was.  That is a significant difference.

 

I don't see Austin there at all. John Ross is the guy that came to mind when I first started watching Ruggs (I didn't love him initially) but I think his floor is way higher than John Ross. His route running, his cuts, his nous in diagnosing coverage and his hands are all superior.

[OldTimer1960]

17 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is a good #2. I am just not taking a guy I don't think can be a #1 at the 22nd pick with a roster that is crying out for a #1. I think Jefferson is ideal for Green Bay or New Orleans. I'd pass on him if I were the Bills. I think Jefferson has a decent floor and a low bust %. I just think he has a low star % too. 

But at 22, is there anyone available who has star potential at any position?  I don’t know that any of the DEs like Epenesa or Gross-Matos are potential stars, nor would I think that any of the OTs like maybe Josh Jones would be, either.  Do you agree?

 

If the idea is take a good, not great, player at a premium position like DE or OT over good, not great WR - I can understand that.  But Bills don’t pick in round 2 until 54th overall and, while WR is purportedly deep, pickings could start getting slim by then -at the very you might miss out on your top few of the 2nd tier.

 

I know that the Bills have other needs, but I see 2 NFL WRs and a special teams player at the position on the Bills’ current roster and little help likely at the position in FA.  I agree - don’t reach at the position in round 1, but I’d be worried about missing out by waiting until 54 as well.

17 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

I actually agree with you.  I still say BPA.  Team needs stars and i don't really care on the position.  

But what “star” do you think is going to be available at 22?  

[Lurker]

3 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Ruggs is 3” taller and 14 pounds heavier than Austin was.  That is a significant difference.

 

I have mixed feeling on Ruggs.   He benefitted so much from the the other three first round WRs who 'Bama could throw on the field with him (Jeudy--2020, Devonta Smith--2021, and perhaps the best of the bunch, Jaylen Waddel--2021).   

 

He was not on the field as much as I would have thought a top-15 draft pick would warrant and his production was all over the place (good games against South Carolina, Southern Mississippi and Auburn but sort of meh against everyone else)....

[OldTimer1960]

1 minute ago, Lurker said:

 

I have mixed feeling on Ruggs.   He benefitted so much from the the other three first round WRs who 'Bama could throw on the field with him (Jeudy--2020, Devonta Smith--2021, and perhaps the best of the bunch, Jaylen Waddel--2021).   

 

He was not on the field as much as I would have thought a top-15 draft pick would warrant and his production was all over the place (good games against South Carolina, Southern Mississippi and Auburn but sort of meh against everyone else)....

I wasn’t necessarily advocating for Ruggs (but I do like him), rather I was not seeing the comparison to Tavon Austin.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

But at 22, is there anyone available who has star potential at any position?  I don’t know that any of the DEs like Epenesa or Gross-Matos are potential stars, nor would I think that any of the OTs like maybe Josh Jones would be, either.  Do you agree?

 

If the idea is take a good, not great, player at a premium position like DE or OT over good, not great WR - I can understand that.  But Bills don’t pick in round 2 until 54th overall and, while WR is purportedly deep, pickings could start getting slim by then -at the very you might miss out on your top few of the 2nd tier.

 

I know that the Bills have other needs, but I see 2 NFL WRs and a special teams player at the position on the Bills’ current roster and little help likely at the position in FA.  I agree - don’t reach at the position in round 1, but I’d be worried about missing out by waiting until 54 as well.

 

I think the most likely of my first round grades to still be there is Kristian Fulton - who I do think has star potential and Jonathan Taylor but I'm not a huge fan of drafting running backs in the first.

 

I don't want Epenesa or Gross-Matos at that spot either - I don't think either are first round players. If my top guys are all gone and the Bills can't trade back a few spots and the view is you might as well go receiver given the need then my pick, wouldn't be popular here, would be Tee Higgins. 

[Dr. Who]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the most likely of my first round grades to still be there is Kristian Fulton - who I do think has star potential and Jonathan Taylor but I'm not a huge fan of drafting running backs in the first.

 

I don't want Epenesa or Gross-Matos at that spot either - I don't think either are first round players. If my top guys are all gone and the Bills can't trade back a few spots and the view is you might as well go receiver given the need then my pick, wouldn't be popular here, would be Tee Higgins. 

I don't think Higgins is a bad pick, though I really hope Beane trades up for one of the top three. Don't know if opportunity and cost will make that possible. If you are picking between Jefferson or Higgins, who do you take? Also, do you think Claypool is there for our second round pick? Really like that fella.

[OldTimer1960]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the most likely of my first round grades to still be there is Kristian Fulton - who I do think has star potential and Jonathan Taylor but I'm not a huge fan of drafting running backs in the first.

 

I don't want Epenesa or Gross-Matos at that spot either - I don't think either are first round players. If my top guys are all gone and the Bills can't trade back a few spots and the view is you might as well go receiver given the need then my pick, wouldn't be popular here, would be Tee Higgins. 

Your logic makes sense to me.  Still, doses it make sense to spend another #1 at CB with Tre White to pay?  I guess that, if they can extend White, then he’d be 30 by the time Fulton’s rookie contract is up.  Maybe that does make sense!

[BillsFan17]

18 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

There is a huge dropoff after Jeudy & Lamb. Not sure Ruggs is nothing more than Tavon Austin.  If we do consider trading down and adding 2nd/ 3rd round picks we might as well target Mims or Claypool. Even Higgins & Shenault are going to fall.

Yet, there are those who rate Ruggs as the best WR in the class.

Therefore, the whole, huge drop off thing is a bit of a stretch.

 

Moreover, the way this class is discussed, is there clear separation from the top three to the rest of the class, yes, but let's not act like the rest of the class isn't historically deep.

 

 

Edited March 7, 2020 by BillsFan17

[Luka]

Much rather have Van than Justin. Van produced with a sub par QB. He is also the best route runner in this class and a former NFL player's son who is now coaching. He doesn't rely purely on athleticism, he's a student of the game and it shows in game.

[T master]

On 3/6/2020 at 9:01 AM, Plano said:

too short.

 

We need a WR that is at least 6'5"

 

That's why i like Claypool at 22 has the speed & the size the Bills need and are looking for at WR plus he would be a great compliment to Brown, & Beasley !

 

I like Jefferson but if most of his production was from the slot then what do they do with Beasly ? He had a career year & has built some chemistry with Allen and all the experts say the Bills need a big bodied receiver that can be a red zone threat i feel Claypool is that guy for the Bills .

 

That is also a big reason why i'm not a fan of some of the other WR this year that will go at the top of the draft like Ruggs or Lamb great players with a ton of speed but lack in size .

Edited March 8, 2020 by T master

[BillsFan17]

What I have enjoyed the most in some of these threads, the player comparables based on nothing other than size. As if everyone with the same build, will ultimately end up being the same player. It's a hell of a way to evaluate and I'm here for it.

[thebandit27]

46 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said:

What I have enjoyed the most in some of these threads, the player comparables based on nothing other than size. As if everyone with the same build, will ultimately end up being the same player. It's a hell of a way to evaluate and I'm here for it.

Comparables are generally stupid anyway. In the right context they can give some insight, but usually it amounts to an unwillingness to do a full evaluation.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

On 3/6/2020 at 10:01 AM, Plano said:

too short

He gets that from his great grandfather George.

 

EDIT!  Whoops and sorry, ‘BUNCH OF MULARKEY’!  You are way ahead of me!  ?

Edited March 8, 2020 by Ridgewaycynic2013
Too old, too slow...?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

On 3/7/2020 at 9:22 AM, thebandit27 said:

Well, I couldn’t possibly disagree more on Jeudy, Ruggs, Hamler, and Jefferson.

 

 

...so does Beane stay pat at #22 and pick his WR guy?.....OR....with the WR class value, would he trade down to perhaps 27 to pick up an extra 2nd and still find his value?.....would he have to sweeten the pot with perhaps a 6th along with #22 to gain 2nd round extra?.....what would you do Bandit?........

Edited March 8, 2020 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Comparables are generally stupid anyway. In the right context they can give some insight, but usually it amounts to an unwillingness to do a full evaluation.

 

Yea I don't like them either and try and stay away from them as an evaluating tool. It can be helpful in trying to explain to others what you see but you can become too transfixed on a comp and often players can remind you of 3 or 4 different guys in elements of their game.