Free Agency News and Updates - around the league

[Stank_Nasty]

Tom Pelissero is reporting the Ravens are going to promptly start looking for trade partners after they franchise Judon.

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, GG said:

 

I'll keep harping on this until March 23 (Murphy's bonus time).  If Bills somehow end up with a marquee DE in week 1 of FA, and can bring Shaq back at $10 mil or less, Murphy is as good as gone.  You don't waste $10 mill cap space on a declining DE who'll be in 30% of snaps.

That last sentence is altogether inaccurate.

 

Murphy is 29 years old, coming off of his 2nd best season in terms of sacks, and lead all Bills’ DEs in snap count last year.

 

It makes absolutely no sense to cut a productive DE, thereby making your team worse, for the sake of cap space that you do not need.

[Stank_Nasty]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

That last sentence is altogether inaccurate.

 

Murphy is 29 years old, coming off of his 2nd best season in terms of sacks, and lead all Bills’ DEs in snap count last year.

 

It makes absolutely no sense to cut a productive DE, thereby making your team worse, for the sake of cap space that you do not need.

also he sorta ended on a heater didn't he? Didn't he have 4 sacks combined in the finale and the playoff game?.... maybe getting his groove back.

Edited March 4, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[BuffaloRebound]

A hypothetical of Shaq at $10m per year, Hughes at $10m per year, Clowney at $20m per year, Star at $8m per year...it becomes hard to pay Murphy $8m per year as your 4th Defensive End.  But hey, if it works for 1 year go for it.  It’s not my money.  Murphy might also have trade value if all these pass rushers get tagged.  

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Tom Pelissero is reporting the Ravens are going to promptly start looking for trade partners after they franchise Judon.

I guess that makes sense since they have Bowser and Ferguson waiting in the wings, and are in a good position to grab an EDGE like Murray, Lewis, or Baun at 28.

[GG]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

That last sentence is altogether inaccurate.

 

Murphy is 29 years old, coming off of his 2nd best season in terms of sacks, and lead all Bills’ DEs in snap count last year.

 

It makes absolutely no sense to cut a productive DE, thereby making your team worse, for the sake of cap space that you do not need.

 

If the above scenario works out, Murphy will be the #4 DE on the roster.  You do not pay your #4 DE $10 million, especially when you are trying to figure out if Bam Johnson can rise to the next level.

[thebandit27]

12 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

also he sorta ended on a heater didn't he? Didn't he have 4 sacks combined in the finale and the playoff game?.... maybe getting his groove back.

Correct. 4 sacks over the final 5 games plus 2 against Houston in the playoffs.

10 minutes ago, GG said:

 

If the above scenario works out, Murphy will be the #4 DE on the roster.  You do not pay your #4 DE $10 million, especially when you are trying to figure out if Bam Johnson can rise to the next level.

Why? The Eagles basically did exactly that with Graham, Barnett, Long, and Curry a few years ago and won a Super Bowl.

Edited March 4, 2020 by thebandit27

[GG]

14 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Correct. 4 sacks over the final 5 games plus 2 against Houston in the playoffs.

Why? The Eagles basically did exactly that with Graham, Barnett, Long, and Curry a few years ago and won a Super Bowl.

 

If you check the salaries & caps of the Eagles' 4 DEs in 2017, they are nowhere near +$50 million total that Bills would be facing this year if they land a marquee FA.  Chris Long is the closest comp to Murphy, and he signed a very team friendly FA deal in '17.

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, GG said:

 

If you check the salaries & caps of the Eagles' 4 DEs in 2017, they are nowhere near +$50 million total that Bills would be facing this year if they land a marquee FA.  Chris Long is the closest comp to Murphy, and he signed a very team friendly FA deal in '17.

Well, for one thing, Graham and Curry counted a combined $16.5M. So they were at a total of $21M for DEs. At the time, the cap was $167M, so that was about 13% of the cap.

 

If you want to assume that the Bills land a whale in FA, say a $15M/year guy, then they’ll be paying about $39.5M toward DEs. That’s about 20.5%. That’s not a big deal for one year when you have a QB on a rookie contract.

 

And again, why make your team worse for the sake of cap space that you don’t need? Nobody seems to answer that question with anything other than “cap space!!!1!-!1!!1”

[Hapless Bills Fan]

44 minutes ago, GG said:

 

I'll keep harping on this until March 23 (Murphy's bonus time).  If Bills somehow end up with a marquee DE in week 1 of FA, and can bring Shaq back at $10 mil or less, Murphy is as good as gone.  You don't waste $10 mill cap space on a declining DE who'll be in 30% of snaps.

 

Just a note that Murphy's roster bonus at that time is only $500k.  It's a lot of money to me personally, but in the NFL scheme of things it hardly seems to be decisive towards cutting a productive player who is under contract.

[GG]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Well, for one thing, Graham and Curry counted a combined $16.5M. So they were at a total of $21M for DEs. At the time, the cap was $167M, so that was about 13% of the cap.

 

If you want to assume that the Bills land a whale in FA, say a $15M/year guy, then they’ll be paying about $39.5M toward DEs. That’s about 20.5%. That’s not a big deal for one year when you have a QB on a rookie contract.

 

And again, why make your team worse for the sake of cap space that you don’t need? Nobody seems to answer that question with anything other than “cap space!!!1!-!1!!1”

 

For starters, your math is a bit off, a whale FA (Clowney) will cost $20 mil.  But even if they land a $15 mill player, the total cap spend on DEs would be about $45 mil (assuming you bring Shaq back at $10 mil).   

 

Secondly, listen to the GM's words about the cap.   He goes out of his way to talk about long term roster and cap management, because the two go hand in hand.  Just because they have loads of space this year doesn't mean they will max out the cap.  He wants max cap flexibility for future years to extend or resign the youngsters.  You can see that logic working with Star.   They had plenty of cap space to keep his contract, but everyone realized that he's not playing up to his cap value. 

 

Same rationale will apply to Murphy if they add new DEs.  If Murphy is demoted to a rotational piece on the line, his contract sticks out like a sore thumb for a guy on the last year of his deal, and with Bam Johnson waiting in the wings.

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just a note that Murphy's roster bonus at that time is only $500k.  It's a lot of money to me personally, but in the NFL scheme of things it hardly seems to be decisive towards cutting a productive player who is under contract.

 

I'm never cavalier about spending other people's money.  The decisive factor for Murphy will be what Beane can do in the first week of FA.

[Reed83HOF]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

For starters, your math is a bit off, a whale FA (Clowney) will cost $20 mil.  But even if they land a $15 mill player, the total cap spend on DEs would be about $45 mil (assuming you bring Shaq back at $10 mil).   

 

Secondly, listen to the GM's words about the cap.   He goes out of his way to talk about long term roster and cap management, because the two go hand in hand.  Just because they have loads of space this year doesn't mean they will max out the cap.  He wants max cap flexibility for future years to extend or resign the youngsters.  You can see that logic working with Star.   They had plenty of cap space to keep his contract, but everyone realized that he's not playing up to his cap value. 

 

Same rationale will apply to Murphy if they add new DEs.  If Murphy is demoted to a rotational piece on the line, his contract sticks out like a sore thumb for a guy on the last year of his deal, and with Bam Johnson waiting in the wings.

 

I'm never cavalier about spending other people's money.  The decisive factor for Murphy will be what Beane can do in the first week of FA.

Murphy is signed through this year. The fun exercise is that the savings generated from LorAx no longer being here and dumping both Shaq and Murphy = what you would pay Yannick around $17M/year, which keeps the cap hit the same as (or very close to) last season.

 

You can even go after the top UFA TEs at $10M/season and cut Smith and Kroft and make no difference to the cap. 

 

You can sign all of the upcoming UFAs on our team and we still still have a lot of room.

 

You can sign Shaq to a long term deal to take over from Murphy next year and we still have a lot of cap room.

 

Unless the cap becomes so tight, there is no need to dump Murphy - he is a UFA next season and will be a reliable rotation player and valuable backup if Hughes or the UFA Edge gets dinged up. 

 

 

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

For starters, your math is a bit off, a whale FA (Clowney) will cost $20 mil.  But even if they land a $15 mill player, the total cap spend on DEs would be about $45 mil (assuming you bring Shaq back at $10 mil).   

 

Secondly, listen to the GM's words about the cap.   He goes out of his way to talk about long term roster and cap management, because the two go hand in hand.  Just because they have loads of space this year doesn't mean they will max out the cap.  He wants max cap flexibility for future years to extend or resign the youngsters.  You can see that logic working with Star.   They had plenty of cap space to keep his contract, but everyone realized that he's not playing up to his cap value. 

 

Same rationale will apply to Murphy if they add new DEs.  If Murphy is demoted to a rotational piece on the line, his contract sticks out like a sore thumb for a guy on the last year of his deal, and with Bam Johnson waiting in the wings.

 

I'm never cavalier about spending other people's money.  The decisive factor for Murphy will be what Beane can do in the first week of FA.

The Murphy decision has zero impact on cap flexibility for the future. It is purely 2020; the final year of his deal.

 

And again I ask: what good does it do to make your team worse for the sake of cap space that you don’t need?

[YoloinOhio]

 

[thebandit27]

Just now, YoloinOhio said:

 

They're going to let Blake Martinez walk and sign Schoebert? Interesting.

[GG]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

The Murphy decision has zero impact on cap flexibility for the future. It is purely 2020; the final year of his deal.

 

And again I ask: what good does it do to make your team worse for the sake of cap space that you don’t need?

 

His 2020 cap absolutely affects the future, because any savings in 2020 can be used to add to the future cap.   For now, Murphy is the 2nd highest cap hit at nearly $10 million, with a dead cap of only $1.75 mil.    If he's slated to be a 30% rotational player in '20, that $8 million cap saving is far more valuable for a future contract (never mind saving Pegula's checkbook)

[thebandit27]

Just now, GG said:

 

His 2020 cap absolutely affects the future, because any savings in 2020 can be used to add to the future cap.   For now, Murphy is the 2nd highest cap hit at nearly $10 million, with a dead cap of only $1.75 mil.    If he's slated to be a 30% rotational player in '20, that $8 million cap saving is far more valuable for a future contract (never mind saving Pegula's checkbook)

Actually, we can’t roll over cap room to 2021 unless that’s included as part of the new CBA. 
 

And this team has over $100M in cap space for 2021 as of now. 

[GG]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

Actually, we can’t roll over cap room to 2021 unless that’s included as part of the new CBA. 
 

And this team has over $100M in cap space for 2021 as of now. 

 

Both players and owners would be dumb not to include the cap rollover conditions into the CBA extension (especially from the players' side)

[Reed83HOF]

13 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Actually, we can’t roll over cap room to 2021 unless that’s included as part of the new CBA. 
 

And this team has over $100M in cap space for 2021 as of now. 

Which is astounding and only what 26 players under contract and then only 13 under contract in 2022? It's bloody brilliant!

[Pete]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

Actually, we can’t roll over cap room to 2021 unless that’s included as part of the new CBA. 
 

And this team has over $100M in cap space for 2021 as of now. 

sign Clowney then.  No sense hoarding cap space if we can't roll it over

if that's the case, let's extend and front load Tre'Davious and Dawkins

[Philo]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

They're going to let Blake Martinez walk and sign Schoebert? Interesting.

 

Do the Packers play a 3-4 scheme? I know Martinez is an ILB, but was wondering if he could work as a 4-3 OLB in Zo's role. I have no idea how the skill sets translate. He may be too rich though even if he could fit. He has been a very good tackler, which was a weakness for the defense this season. 

[aristocrat]

keep murphy until camp and at worse he becomes a camp cut but it's always a good thing to have a guy playing for another contract and who knows maybe he has a big year and we get ourselves a little comp pick right?

[Buffalo Junction]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

They're going to let Blake Martinez walk and sign Schoebert? Interesting.

Likely. Martinez is great at playing cleanup, but he can get washed out easily. Particularly against zone schemes. He’s not good at taking on blocks and he’s exposed against the run in Pettine’s scheme. Part of that is due to bad NT play, but Martinez is more of a chase guy instead of downhill. 

 

6 minutes ago, Philo said:

 

Do the Packers play a 3-4 scheme? I know Martinez is an ILB, but was wondering if he could work as a 4-3 OLB in Zo's role. I have no idea how the skill sets translate. He may be too rich though even if he could fit. He has been a very good tackler, which was a weakness for the defense this season. 

More of a WLB in a 4-3. Decent speed and coverage ability. 

[aristocrat]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

Likely. Martinez is great at playing cleanup, but he can get washed out easily. Particularly against zone schemes. He’s not good at taking on blocks and he’s exposed against the run in Pettine’s scheme. Part of that is due to bad NT play, but Martinez is more of a chase guy instead of downhill. 

 

More of a WLB in a 4-3. Decent speed and coverage ability. 

 

well what do we need?  WLB.  I would absolutely sign this guy

[billsfan89]

Some  non-Bills predictions and Bills predictions for free agency. 

Bills Predictions

1- Quinton Spain will be the only major resigned player. Phillips and Shaq will be allowed to test the market and they will get overpaid. 
2- No major splashes but several quality signings. I think they try and replicate last year’s prudent approach to free agency. I think they do go with one bigger signing in the 10-12 million aav range (similar to Mitch last off-season) and then 2-3 other 7-9 million aav signings to fill out other needs. 
3- Mario Addison will be brought in to replace Shaq and an Edge defender will be drafted in the first 3 rounds to help get younger at the position long term.  
4- Koft is cut but Murphy and most of the other “cut” candidates stay at least through camp. 

Non-Bills Predictions 

1- Brady signs with the Titans as does Antonio Brown. 
2- The Jets go big game hunting again and sign 2-3 big names but neglect key areas of depth and need. 
3- The Pats sign Phillip Rivers 
4- CMC is not traded but the Panthers do go with the full tear down outside of CMC. I think they would trade CMC if he got them 2 first round picks and another premium pick along with 1-2 other picks but that package just won’t materialize.

5- The Bears trade one of their second round picks and a future pick for Andy Dalton. 

6- Andrew Luck stays retired for one more season (He comes back 2021.)

7- The Colts sign Yannick or Clowney. 

8- The Chargers trade for Foles and draft Tua. 

 

Should be an interesting free agency period as I think there will be the usual flurry of signings but also there will be a lot of movement at the QB position. 

[Locomark]

17 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Some  non-Bills predictions and Bills predictions for free agency. 

Bills Predictions

1- Quinton Spain will be the only major resigned player. Phillips and Shaq will be allowed to test the market and they will get overpaid. 
2- No major splashes but several quality signings. I think they try and replicate last year’s prudent approach to free agency. I think they do go with one bigger signing in the 10-12 million aav range (similar to Mitch last off-season) and then 2-3 other 7-9 million aav signings to fill out other needs. 
3- Mario Addison will be brought in to replace Shaq and an Edge defender will be drafted in the first 3 rounds to help get younger at the position long term.  
4- Koft is cut but Murphy and most of the other “cut” candidates stay at least through camp. 

Non-Bills Predictions 

1- Brady signs with the Titans as does Antonio Brown. 
2- The Jets go big game hunting again and sign 2-3 big names but neglect key areas of depth and need. 
3- The Pats sign Phillip Rivers 
4- CMC is not traded but the Panthers do go with the full tear down outside of CMC. I think they would trade CMC if he got them 2 first round picks and another premium pick along with 1-2 other picks but that package just won’t materialize.

5- The Bears trade one of their second round picks and a future pick for Andy Dalton. 

6- Andrew Luck stays retired for one more season (He comes back 2021.)

7- The Colts sign Yannick or Clowney. 

8- The Chargers trade for Foles and draft Tua. 

 

Should be an interesting free agency period as I think there will be the usual flurry of signings but also there will be a lot of movement at the QB position. 

 

No way Pats ever sign Rivers. Belicheat couldn’t deal with his inconsistency and tendency for picks. 

[Buffalo Junction]

2 hours ago, aristocrat said:

 

well what do we need?  WLB.  I would absolutely sign this guy

Milano is our weak side lber. We need a replacement for Alexander. The FA  packer lber that would best fit there is Kyler Fackrell. 

[Reed83HOF]

29 minutes ago, Locomark said:

 

No way Pats ever sign Rivers. Belicheat couldn’t deal with his inconsistency and tendency for picks. 

 I would pay to see that

[aristocrat]

43 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

Milano is our weak side lber. We need a replacement for Alexander. The FA  packer lber that would best fit there is Kyler Fackrell. 

 

he played strongside in college.  

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, Locomark said:

 

No way Pats ever sign Rivers. Belicheat couldn’t deal with his inconsistency and tendency for picks. 

 

Belicheat will take a look at the vet QB's available to replace Brady and land on Rivers as a stop gap. Rivers in recent years up until 2019 had been a great QB in terms of consistency and low turnovers. In 2017 and 2018 he had 10 and 12 picks to 28 and 32 TD's. That's a nearly 3 to 1 TD to INT ratio. His 2017 and 2018 production levels also included high completion percentages. I think Billy B knows a bargin when he sees one and will use Rivers as his QB the next 2 seasons to buy him some time to groom a young QB. 

 

Rivers also comes at a cheaper price than Dalton who will require significant draft capital to trade for and might be as good or better anyway. I think that Rivers makes a lot of sense for the Pats if Brady bolts. Rivers can be asked to mostly manage games and work within a system. Rivers has played in a lot of different systems under a lot of different coaches and has had mostly success. I think Billy B will just ask him to mostly manage games and hand the ball off only letting him loose in games when needed. 

[Buffalo Junction]

11 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

he played strongside in college.  

He played safety at BC too. ?‍♂️. McD moved him to WLB. In McD’s scheme that type of player fits the will position. 

[JaCrispy]

27 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

he played strongside in college.  

I hear he continues to play both sides to this day...??‍♂️

[JerseyBills]

 

Panthers wtf .. ??‍♂️                

If you can't see tweet, Panthers send 27 y/o OG Trai Turner to Chargers for 32 y/o LT Russel Okung

Turner is a 5x pro bowler

 

Edited March 5, 2020 by JerseyBills

[YattaOkasan]

3 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Belicheat will take a look at the vet QB's available to replace Brady and land on Rivers as a stop gap. Rivers in recent years up until 2019 had been a great QB in terms of consistency and low turnovers. In 2017 and 2018 he had 10 and 12 picks to 28 and 32 TD's. That's a nearly 3 to 1 TD to INT ratio. His 2017 and 2018 production levels also included high completion percentages. I think Billy B knows a bargin when he sees one and will use Rivers as his QB the next 2 seasons to buy him some time to groom a young QB. 

 

Rivers also comes at a cheaper price than Dalton who will require significant draft capital to trade for and might be as good or better anyway. I think that Rivers makes a lot of sense for the Pats if Brady bolts. Rivers can be asked to mostly manage games and work within a system. Rivers has played in a lot of different systems under a lot of different coaches and has had mostly success. I think Billy B will just ask him to mostly manage games and hand the ball off only letting him loose in games when needed. 

Please let this happen. Rivers in the cold and behind that line would be great to watch. I think he’s going to Indy where they have a line and play indoors. 

[billsfan89]

Just now, YattaOkasan said:

Please let this happen. Rivers in the cold and behind that line would be great to watch. I think he’s going to Indy where they have a line and play indoors. 

 

Indy could make sense for Rivers too. I like the fit there as well. Something tells me that Indy will however not want a long term commitment at QB since they feel Luck will come back and Rivers could be that stop gap. But I think the Pats could take Rivers and get him back to a version of his 2017 and 2018 form when he was one of the top 10 QB's in the league. I think that Belicheat wants a game manager who when called upon can win a game. I think Rivers fits that mold. I think if reigned in 80% of the time he can manage games and then when needed let it rip that other 20%. 

 

If not Rivers I could see the Pats trading a second round pick and a 2021 pick for Dalton and then drafting a QB next year while having Dalton take the position for the next 2-3 years as a pseudo game manager. 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Motor26]

Really hope their splash signings are for the offensive and defensive lines. Then pickup depth at the skill positions so they can draft skill players early in the draft. 

[whatdrought]

6 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

Some  non-Bills predictions and Bills predictions for free agency. 

Bills Predictions

1- Quinton Spain will be the only major resigned player. Phillips and Shaq will be allowed to test the market and they will get overpaid. 
2- No major splashes but several quality signings. I think they try and replicate last year’s prudent approach to free agency. I think they do go with one bigger signing in the 10-12 million aav range (similar to Mitch last off-season) and then 2-3 other 7-9 million aav signings to fill out other needs. 
3- Mario Addison will be brought in to replace Shaq and an Edge defender will be drafted in the first 3 rounds to help get younger at the position long term.  
4- Koft is cut but Murphy and most of the other “cut” candidates stay at least through camp. 

Non-Bills Predictions 

1- Brady signs with the Titans as does Antonio Brown. 
2- The Jets go big game hunting again and sign 2-3 big names but neglect key areas of depth and need. 
3- The Pats sign Phillip Rivers 
4- CMC is not traded but the Panthers do go with the full tear down outside of CMC. I think they would trade CMC if he got them 2 first round picks and another premium pick along with 1-2 other picks but that package just won’t materialize.

5- The Bears trade one of their second round picks and a future pick for Andy Dalton. 

6- Andrew Luck stays retired for one more season (He comes back 2021.)

7- The Colts sign Yannick or Clowney. 

8- The Chargers trade for Foles and draft Tua. 

 

Should be an interesting free agency period as I think there will be the usual flurry of signings but also there will be a lot of movement at the QB position. 

Not a bad list. 2 complaints:

 

1- I don’t think Antonio Brown will he signing anywhere. Even if he does, he likely won’t play.

 

2- No way Andy Dalton is worth a 2nd round pick. 4th is more like it.

[billsfan89]

2 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Not a bad list. 2 complaints:

 

1- I don’t think Antonio Brown will he signing anywhere. Even if he does, he likely won’t play.

 

2- No way Andy Dalton is worth a 2nd round pick. 4th is more like it.

 

I agree that if AB does sign he will have a lengthy suspension coming his way if he does make it to the field. But I think Brady is thirsty for him and the Titans would give him a mid level deal if this scenario is to hypothetically play out.

 

As far as Dalton, I think a team does have to give up something of value, QB's get overvalued. Remember Tyrod was traded for pick 65 and I would say Dalton has a slightly better resume.

[thebandit27]

Friendly reminder that this is the time of year when all tends to go quiet regarding the Bills.

 

If things are strangely quiet surrounding a big name FA, and you hear nothing connecting said player to the Bills, then he could very well be a target.