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12 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Makes sense to me. We have the cap space and nothing else to spend it on (assuming a lot of the big names we covet in FA ultimately wont be available).

Might as well spend it, and if it's only a 1 year deal, we get the cap space back next year. It works like rolling it over, except we get a talented player for a year instead of nothing.

 

I see your viewpoint, but we don't get nothing, we get the cap $$ to roll forward or to go ahead and work on extensions for some of the guys we value. 

 

I assume they've had their end of year convos with Phillips as with others "this is what you do great, this is what we want you to work on".  Then they "right-sized" Star.  I don't think it goes too smoothly if you ask one guy to take a paycut and then throw money at the guy standing next to him.  Isn't it bound to make him less receptive to "this is what we want you to work on?"  And, taking the long view, if you don't want to pay that much to BigJ on an ongoing basis, wouldn't it make sense to bring in someone you can develop and keep around?

 

IDK, I guess it all hinges on whether they see him as an irreplaceable piece or not, and the fact that he's only playing 50% of the snaps says to me, Not.

 

12 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

As long as the spend doesnt hinder us form signing other players for this year, then we might as well.

 

You could be right, but I don't think Beane sees it that way..

 

12 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

The $15M Franchise Tag number is the average of the highest paid DTs.

NONE of our DTs are making even close to that. We do not have high paid DTs.

 

Can I poke my nose in here and say I think you're both a bit right?  The tag is what, the 5 highest paid guys by AAV?  So we have no one in that group.

But Star Lotulelei is #7, and Ed Oliver is #13 on AAV, on total contract #4 and #10.

 

So we do have two very highly paid DTs.  Overall, we're not cheaping it in that position group.

 

I think we're willing to give Jordan Phillips a nice bump and some nice guarantees - but we want to slot him in between Star and Ed. 

 

The guys who make the biggest $$ are the ones who are the keystones of their line, and who play >70-80% of the snaps - the way Dareus and Mario Williams did in 2014 when the Bills had the #4 D. 

 

That's just not how McD and Frazier handle the DL, or at least it hasn't been.

 

 

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46 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I see your viewpoint, but we don't get nothing, we get the cap $$ to roll forward or to go ahead and work on extensions for some of the guys we value. 

 

I assume they've had their end of year convos with Phillips as with others "this is what you do great, this is what we want you to work on".  Then they "right-sized" Star.  I don't think it goes too smoothly if you ask one guy to take a paycut and then throw money at the guy standing next to him.  Isn't it bound to make him less receptive to "this is what we want you to work on?"  And, taking the long view, if you don't want to pay that much to BigJ on an ongoing basis, wouldn't it make sense to bring in someone you can develop and keep around?

 

IDK, I guess it all hinges on whether they see him as an irreplaceable piece or not, and the fact that he's only playing 50% of the snaps says to me, Not.

 

 

 

That money "rolls over" either way if it is a 1-year Franchise Tag deal. As has been shown numerous times here, we have the money to spend on Phillips AND sign anyone and everyone else we want, extensions included.

 

As far as guys standing next to each other getting paid or not, they are professionals, they know this is a business. Star is still making $5M-8M, he doesnt need to worry about anyone else. And most of them don't. Especially if he's such a "Process" guy.

 

As far as long view, I personally and fine with signing JP to a long term deal. I was just keeping my points within the framework of the Franchise Tag discussion.

 

All our DL play on rotation, that isnt a reason to not sign any to big contracts. IMO, DL and OL is where we should be spending. Speaking of which, I'm working on a post that details exactly that... stay tuned...

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11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Who is Joe DiBiase of WGR and what credence does he have?

 

https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/opinion/jordan-phillips-is-perfect-for-the-franchise-tag
 

"After thinking about the idea more and more, it actually makes sense. A lot of sense.  In fact, the Bills would probably be smart to franchise tag Phillips, which would cost them $15.5 million on the cap.

 

In no way am I saying that I think Phillips is a $15.5 million player. He had 9.5 sacks last season, yes. He's a better all around defensive tackle than Star Lotulelei, yes. However, Phillips struggled in run defense this past season. He's a great penetrator up the middle, but there's a reason he only received a grade of 53.6 from Pro Football Focus and didn't crack their top-100 free agents for this offseason.

The idea of franchise tagging Phillips has nothing to do with the $15.5 million. It has everything to do with it only being for one year. The worst thing I believe the Bills could do is sign Phillips to a multi-year extension. By 2021, the Bills will have to give out new deals to cornerback Tre'Davious White, left tackle Dion Dawkins, linebacker Matt Milano, and even safety Jordan Poyer if they want to keep him around. A multi-year deal for Phillips would stretch into a time period where the Bills have to pay all those guys, and possibly quarterback Josh Allen and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds too.

Honestly, it would be better for the Bills to pay Phillips $15.5 million for this season, rather than a three-year deal worth $24 million. It's more money per-year no doubt, but it doesn't threaten their ability to sign their own in the future.  The Bills will likely want to do some other things this offseason, potentially big things. They have the third most cap space in the NFL, going into the spring at just under $82 million in space. Are they really going to use all of that? Even if Beane hadn't been careful managing the cap over the last few years, I'd tell you they're not going to find $82 million worth of free agents and draft picks to come here in one offseason. 

 

Why not use cap space on Phillips that you won't use otherwise? "

 

He's not making a lot of sense to me.

Anyone else?


 

 

 

 

 

Not making much sense for a player that will split time with Oliver. I'd rather use that $ somewhere else. $8-10 on a  WR or LB maybe?  

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14 minutes ago, Dopey said:

Not making much sense for a player that will split time with Oliver. I'd rather use that $ somewhere else. $8-10 on a  WR or LB maybe?  

 

We have $80M-90M to spend. We can sign JP, a WR, and a LB and still have $60M left over for extensions and other guys.

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1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

We have $80M-90M to spend. We can sign JP, a WR, and a LB and still have $60M left over for extensions and other guys.

I get that, but he's going to split time with Oliver. That's a lot of $ for a part time player, even for 1 yr. We can make this a better/deeper team with that $15M. 

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11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That would be my fault for the cut-n-paste method I used, not his

 

 

How so?

 

What I read him saying is we will need cap space in 3 years, so instead of saving cap to roll over, we should spend it on a guy he flat-out states is not a $15.5M player.

 

If the guy is not a $15.5M player, why tag him for that?  If he's a worthwhile player and we want to keep him, and he'd be willing to sign for $24M/3 years, why not do that instead?  A deal can be structured in any kind of a way to front-load it and clear cap in the latter years.

 

It seems like he's arguing to treat the cap like it's "Brewster's Millions" this season, giving it away on a player who he says is not worth that much because we won't spend it all - because in future years we'll need cap.  But in that case why not roll over cap?

His argument is that losing Phillips for nothing is bad and you’ll have to pay something to replace him (at almost a guaranteed lower production). Giving Phillips a multiple year deal that will beat the market, (aka probably not some team friendly out in 2 year deal) is also bad. Controlling Phillips for 1 year, not letting him test the market, may be preferable even with a higher 1 year pricetag.

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5 minutes ago, Dopey said:

I get that, but he's going to split time with Oliver. That's a lot of $ for a part time player, even for 1 yr. We can make this a better/deeper team with that $15M. 

 

Our entire DL "splits time". Are you saying we should never sign a DL star since they'll always be in rotation? Where better to invest than in the trenches? We still have plenty of money to make this a better/deeper team even with that theoretical signing.

 

If we were in a different cap situation, I'd agree with you. The money could be better spent elsewhere. But we have a ton of cash to spend this year. Whether it's a big, 1-year Franchise Tag deal, or a more team-friendly long term deal. We have the ability to make that deal and still have money.

 

We have our QB on a rookie deal. We control Tre's money for 2 more years. Now is the time to make such splurges in order to "win now" while that window is open.

 

Edited by DrDawkinstein
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Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Our entire DL "splits time". Are you saying we should never sign a DL star since they'll always be in rotation? Where better to invest than in the trenches? We still have plenty of money to make this a better/deeper team even with that theoretical signing.

I do agree with building the trenches. He's not a star to me, though. If I thought he was, I would be for it. Even splitting time. 

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1 minute ago, Dopey said:

I do agree with building the trenches. He's not a star to me, though. If I thought he was, I would be for it. Even splitting time. 

 

Regardless of whether we think he's a star or not, who is going to replace him that is as good?

 

Right now we just have Ed in that 3-tech spot. Star, Harry, VTaylor, and Liuget are all 1-tech.

 

Don't focus on the $ amount when we have so much to spend. Especially if we're talking 1-year Franchise Tag deal where we get that cap space back next year anyways.

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1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Regardless of whether we think he's a star or not, who is going to replace him that is as good?

 

Right now we just have Ed in that 3-tech spot. Star, Harry, VTaylor, and Liuget are all 1-tech.

 

Don't focus on the $ amount when we have so much to spend. Especially if we're talking 1-year Franchise Tag deal where we get that cap space back next year anyways.

Good question. I don't have an answer. I won't be pissed if they franchise him, but would prefer something else for that amount of $. Unless we feel we are SB ready.

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3 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Makes sense to me. We have the cap space and nothing else to spend it on (assuming a lot of the big names we covet in FA ultimately wont be available).

 

Might as well spend it, and if it's only a 1 year deal, we get the cap space back next year. It works like rolling it over, except we get a talented player for a year instead of nothing.

 

As long as the spend doesnt hinder us form signing other players for this year, then we might as well.

 

The $15M Franchise Tag number is the average of the highest paid DTs.

 

NONE of our DTs are making even close to that. We do not have high paid DTs.

 

As a positional group last year, the Bills spent the most money in the NFL on DT's at over $21 million and 10.5% of the cap.

 

Now you want them to give Phillips a franchise tag of $15.5 million and increase it to almost $30 million and take up 14.8% of the cap?  

 

You can't be serious.

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Something that jut occurred to me as I was looking at the patriots draft picks .. if we can sign him to a reasonable deal great .. but if the price gets too high .. we will end up with a nice compensatory draft pick. The smart teams have been taking advantage of this system for years. Let a guy walk for high money .. don't pay the money and get a draft pick on a cheap contract for  nothing. The not so smart teams overpay and get into cap hell .. looking at you Rams. let's be a smart team.

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10 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

As a positional group last year, the Bills spent the most money in the NFL on DT's at over $21 million and 10.5% of the cap.

 

Now you want them to give Phillips a franchise tag of $15.5 million and increase it to almost $30 million and take up 14.8% of the cap?  

 

You can't be serious.

 

Very serious. Where better to spend the money than the trenches?

 

IMO, it should be 25% of cap on OL and 25% of cap on DL as a starting point. Especially when you have a QB on a rookie deal. And doubly so when you have so many other starters on rookie deals as well.

 

The 2020 Cap is $201.2M. That gives us $50M per Line to work with.

 

According to the Spotrac Breakdown for our Positional spends we're currently at:

Offensive Line: 13.42%

Defensive Line: 15.83%

 

While we need to add to OL, we don't have any major OL contracts to hand out, and could even get away with sliding Ford to Guard and keeping Nsekhe at RT. But we still have room there either way.

 

Our DEs are fairly "set" if they wanted to roll with Murhpy. Or cut him to make up some cap room and go try to get Ngakoue.

 

That still gives us plenty of room to spend at DT in 2020 or beyond. AND sign Ngakoue or the equivalent.

 

AND still have $50M left over for UFAs to add top talent and depth to the team. A WR, TE, and OLB all at $10M each gives us $20M left over. That's still more than some teams have in TOTAL cap space to start the offseason.

 

Or mix and match some extensions in there as well. However you want to move all that money around. It's all possible.

 

We are in a very unique cap situation. Beane has set us up to make moves exactly like I'm talking about. He's not just hoarding gold like a dragon.

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2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Our entire DL "splits time". Are you saying we should never sign a DL star since they'll always be in rotation? Where better to invest than in the trenches? We still have plenty of money to make this a better/deeper team even with that theoretical signing.

 

If we were in a different cap situation, I'd agree with you. The money could be better spent elsewhere. But we have a ton of cash to spend this year. Whether it's a big, 1-year Franchise Tag deal, or a more team-friendly long term deal. We have the ability to make that deal and still have money.

 

We have our QB on a rookie deal. We control Tre's money for 2 more years. Now is the time to make such splurges in order to "win now" while that window is open.

 

Here you go-

 

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Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Another Houston guy to pair with Ed. I like it.


We'll still be spending $15.5M+/year on another "rotational" DT like a lot of fans here are opposed to.

He's a legit superstar imo. I thought he should have been SB MVP and if KC has to cut him loose (and it looks like they might) he would be the guy I imagine McDermott/Beane are in on. 

 

You can put him on the field w/Lotulelei or another 1tech in base but the great thing about having him and Oliver is they're both multiple and it allows for a ton of combinations...Jones can get it done at DT as well. For me he is the home run FA signing

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$15m is definitely steep for Phillips, but it’s not my money and there’s no way we won’t be well under the cap.  If he and Shaq truly want to stay, I’d do what I could to keep them.  I’d rather over-pay my own guys than free agents.  But it’s not smart to let good players go with no guarantees you’ll be able to replace them in free agency especially considering our current cap situation. 

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6 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said:

Something that jut occurred to me as I was looking at the patriots draft picks .. if we can sign him to a reasonable deal great .. but if the price gets too high .. we will end up with a nice compensatory draft pick. The smart teams have been taking advantage of this system for years. Let a guy walk for high money .. don't pay the money and get a draft pick on a cheap contract for  nothing. The not so smart teams overpay and get into cap hell .. looking at you Rams. let's be a smart team.

You dont get comp picks when you have 90 million to spend in free agency.  If you franchise tag him then extend players you might get a comp pick for him when he leaves a year from now.

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3 hours ago, auburnbillsbacker said:

You dont get comp picks when you have 90 million to spend in free agency.  If you franchise tag him then extend players you might get a comp pick for him when he leaves a year from now.

Well you may be right .. but it really depends on how much of the 90 mil they spend on resigning their guys and how much they spend on other people’s FA

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On 2/14/2020 at 10:28 AM, DrDawkinstein said:

Our entire DL "splits time". Are you saying we should never sign a DL star since they'll always be in rotation? Where better to invest than in the trenches? We still have plenty of money to make this a better/deeper team even with that theoretical signing.

 

I think what's being said is that we don't assess Phillips as a DL star; we assess him as a very talented DL contributor who would need to develop his run D to become that thing.

 

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The more I think about the more I am fine with it.

What I imagine the bills would like is a long term deal sub 10 million, phillips I imagine wants 12 plus long term

 

The bills have the next 2 years to go all in before having to figure out a ton of expiring rookie deals, if they believe Phillips is perfect for the team and settles the DT position. They might be fine over paying a few million for one season, see if harry returns healthy and re set next off season

 

Also in my opinion the bills negotiating position strengthens when he tests the market. As I believe the bills guarenteed money portion of any contract they offer will be very competitive with offers he gets from other teams

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On 2/14/2020 at 5:04 PM, without a drought said:

$15.5 mil seems like a lot for a rotational player who has had 1 good season in his 5 year career. Maybe he will repeat the performance, but the odds aren't exactly in his favor.

 

The real problem in overpaying a player is the "Diner while Dining at Crewe" phenomenon -

 

A Diner while dining at Crewe,
Found quite a large Rat in his stew,
Said the waiter, "Don't shout!
And wave it about,
Or the rest will be wanting one too."
 
If you overpay Phillips for your value on him, everybody else in the team who is negotiating contract turns and says "I want that too"
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On 2/14/2020 at 10:28 AM, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Our entire DL "splits time". Are you saying we should never sign a DL star since they'll always be in rotation? Where better to invest than in the trenches? We still have plenty of money to make this a better/deeper team even with that theoretical signing.

 

If we were in a different cap situation, I'd agree with you. The money could be better spent elsewhere. But we have a ton of cash to spend this year. Whether it's a big, 1-year Franchise Tag deal, or a more team-friendly long term deal. We have the ability to make that deal and still have money.

 

We have our QB on a rookie deal. We control Tre's money for 2 more years. Now is the time to make such splurges in order to "win now" while that window is open.

 


I mean, I think he’s just saying get a $5m guy and a $10m pass catcher 

 

or even a $5m guy, a $5m back, and a $5m upgrade elsewhere 

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The real problem in overpaying a player is the "Diner while Dining at Crewe" phenomenon -

 

A Diner while dining at Crewe,
Found quite a large Rat in his stew,
Said the waiter, "Don't shout!
And wave it about,
Or the rest will be wanting one too."
 
If you overpay Phillips for your value on him, everybody else in the team who is negotiating contract turns and says "I want that too"

What?

 

Teams overpay free agents or impending free agents all the time. We paid Morse a ton, is Dawkins going to hold out? We paid John Brown quite a bit, is Isaiah McKenzie demanding “that too?”

 

That’s an argument that is not supported at all in the modern NFL.

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7 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

What?

 

Teams overpay free agents or impending free agents all the time. We paid Morse a ton, is Dawkins going to hold out? We paid John Brown quite a bit, is Isaiah McKenzie demanding “that too?”

 

That’s an argument that is not supported at all in the modern NFL.


To me, it would be more like tagging Isaiah McKenzie and having John Brown go “uhhhh....”

 

Sounds like we gotta just disagree

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1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:


He’s from Mississippi?

 

Ah, he was born in Houston but went to Miss St. The article I saw read like he "was a draft pick from Houston".

45 minutes ago, NoSaint said:


I mean, I think he’s just saying get a $5m guy and a $10m pass catcher 

 

or even a $5m guy, a $5m back, and a $5m upgrade elsewhere 

 

And just sit on the other $70M in cap? Nah, go get $10M guys (who are worth it) and add some real talent to the team.

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13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:


To me, it would be more like tagging Isaiah McKenzie and having John Brown go “uhhhh....”

 

Sounds like we gotta just disagree

What defensive tackle is eligible for extension? Star just took a pay cut, and Phillips and Oliver are on rookie deals. None of those 3 had as many sacks as JP did last year. He arguably outperformed all of them. And Harrison Phillips coming off an ACL tear is gonna say “uhhh” if Jordan gets paid?

 

It’s just one of those things that sounds plausible but does not hold up past a cursory examination.

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On 2/14/2020 at 12:41 PM, letsgoteam said:

Plus keep in mind that there is no cap roll over for next year. (Right? Because of the CBA ending)

 

If that is the case, spend away (in a constructive, conscience manner). Leave no dollar unspent.


Once a new CBA is agreed to there will be rollover to 2021.  No way does an agreement happen without that.  

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8 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Ah, he was born in Houston but went to Miss St. The article I saw read like he "was a draft pick from Houston".

 

And just sit on the other $70M in cap? Nah, go get $10M guys (who are worth it) and add some real talent to the team.


I hope I’m clear in wanting to spend every penny and then a few on top. Just think we could terribly overspend on a comparable DT and still come out cheaper and able to add more elsewhere. Tagging Phillips wouldn’t terribly upset me but I think we could do better

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12 minutes ago, NoSaint said:


I hope I’m clear in wanting to spend every penny and then a few on top. Just think we could terribly overspend on a comparable DT and still come out cheaper and able to add more elsewhere. Tagging Phillips wouldn’t terribly upset me but I think we could do better

 

 

...probably dead wrong, but I don't see McBeane spending money like a drunken sailor for the sake of "spending it all"......he's honed his skills as a value shopper IMO, structuring deals that don't end up in cap hell.....he'll also focus on extending his own that are worthy IMO.....

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1 minute ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...probably dead wrong, but I don't see McBeane spending money like a drunken sailor for the sake of "spending it all"......he's honed his skills as a value shopper IMO, structuring deals that don't end up in cap hell.....he'll also focus on extending his own that are worthy IMO.....


I suspect he will spend more than many think but less than he could. 
 

And he could spend it all without cap hell.

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5 minutes ago, NoSaint said:


I suspect he will spend more than many think but less than he could. 
 

And he could spend it all without cap hell.

 

...pretty fair assessment.......could see the "deal categories" as follows:

 

A. Cheap SOB and a lowball offer.

B. Sounds like a fair and reasonable offer.

C. WTF? Are you kidding me? Broke the bank for HIM?

 

....stay tuned............

 

 

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5 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

What defensive tackle is eligible for extension? Star just took a pay cut, and Phillips and Oliver are on rookie deals. None of those 3 had as many sacks as JP did last year. He arguably outperformed all of them. And Harrison Phillips coming off an ACL tear is gonna say “uhhh” if Jordan gets paid?

 

It’s just one of those things that sounds plausible but does not hold up past a cursory examination.

 

Well, we already established that we're just going to disagree, but I'd like to note that I did not mention the rookie deal guys or Harrison Phillips. 

 

My analogy was "To me, it would be more like tagging Isaiah McKenzie and having John Brown go “uhhhh....”

The analogy is not exact, but both McKenzie and Phillips are free agents.  McKenzie has been a valued contributor with sweeps and slants, but he's far from a polished complete receiver.  If McKenzie were to be franchised, or even paid around the same as Brown (who is like the 28th paid WR for AAV currently) I would think Brown be "uhhhhh....."

 

Sacks are only a part of the expectations of a DT in McDermott and Frazier's defense.  Phillips has been a valued contributor for his penetrating pass D but has not always maintained gap integrity against the rush.  I'm sure the guy playing next to him knows that.  If Phillips gets franchised and paid like a top 5 DT, the guy who just took a paycut could well be like "uhhhhh...." 

 

Making a guy an offer that's well above his value to the team is probably not a good long-term overall strategy, just because it's a cap-flush year.

 

Jordan Phillips is a fine player and I like him.  I have faith in Beane on defense.  I believe he will make a fair offer appropriate for Phillips value in McD's scheme and where they see him as a player.  I think he will also pursue players he thinks are potential upgrades for similar or slightly more money.  I don't think he will be looking at sack numbers to determine that, but I think he recognizes that other teams may well be looking more heavily at sack numbers and may make Phillips a sweeter offer than he's prepared to extend.

 

 

 

 

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