The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Kemp]

5 hours ago, Tiberius said:

report that Jared Kushner may not be the organizational genius we’ve been led to believe:

The coronavirus response being spearheaded by President Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has relied in part on volunteers from consulting and private equity firms with little expertise in the tasks to which they were assigned, exacerbating chronic problems in obtaining supplies for hospitals and other needs, according to numerous government officials and a volunteer involved in the effort.

About two dozen employees from Boston Consulting Group, Insight, McKinsey and other firms have volunteered their time — some on paid vacation leave from their jobs and others without pay — to aid the Trump administration’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, according to administration officials and others familiar with the arrangement.

Although some of the volunteers have relevant backgrounds and experience, many others were poorly matched with the jobs they were assigned, including those given the task of securing personal protective equipment, or PPE, for hospitals nationwide, according to a complaint filed last month with the House Oversight Committee.

 

Who said he was a genius of any kind?

[MILFHUNTER#518]

1 hour ago, Kemp said:

 

Two vocal Dem donors?

 

UV Rays?

 

Joe Biden?

 

Tin foil?

 

 

1.) The two folks in Arizona that toasted the resistance with fish tank cleaner were, in fact, Dem donors (and police are investigating if the wife did this to murder her husband.)

 

2.) UV rays do, in fact kill the virus. The CDC investigated it. It kills alot of germs, bacteria, and yes, viruses. Hospitals have been using UV light to sanitize for decades.

 

3.) Joe Biden's recent verbal gaffes are well known. He really should be at home enjoying time with his grandkids. The whole debacle has evolved from pathetic, to just plain sad.

 

4.) You said tin foil, not ID BillzFan.

[Kemp]

6 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

You don't believe 70,000 Americans have died from coronavirus over the last 6-8 weeks? 

 

They haven't died. They're hired actors. Trump’s friend, Alex Jones said so.

5 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

 Died? Yes.  From COVID-19? Maybe not.

Remember, a while back cause of death started attributing "with" COVID-19 to meaning "from" COVID-19. Which is not the same thing at all. The numbers are skewed, which is not helpful for many reasons including future modeling.

 

 

By your logic, no one has ever died of cancer, because they didn't die until their heart stopped. This whole cancer thing is fake news.

5 hours ago, Gary M said:

 

Did we flatten the curve?

 

Then Mission accomplished

 

 

If you flatten the curve at 500 deaths a day forever, that's mission accomplished?

[Foxx]

3 hours ago, snafu said:

... We aren’t baby birds in a nest with our mouths open to the sky.

 

 

 

though, the poster in question would have you believe that that is all any of us are.

[Kemp]

4 hours ago, meazza said:

 

Here is why you fail in your analysis:

 

1) The Spanish flu was very bad for healthy young people and extremely devestating for pregnant women and their unborn children.

2) The Spanish flu was during a period of war therefore most people were probably having a hard time getting food, medicine and water based.

3) The technology differences between 1918 and today are obviously exponentially different.

 

I heard we burned people during the plague to flatten the curve.  Do you want to do that?

 

The probable reason for young people getting hit worse during the Spanish Flu is that older people had probably already been through it.

4 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

cloth masks aren't intended to keep you from gettgin sick. They are intended for you to not leave respiratory particles in public spaces if you are sick. And since you can have the virus and have no symptoms, it's not about virtue signally at all. It's about giving a ***** about other people. 

 

You're trying to argue with people who don't care about other people.

[Foxx]

interesting read today, thanks.

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

Maybe you skipped over the whole string of douche baggery and cult like responses leading up to it. 

Don’t be a victim, this is a safe space for all.  

[Foxx]

https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/1258039342246887426

 

[Magox]

More on asymptotic carriers at another prison facility.
 

——————

 

The Tennessee Department of Correction confirmed the positive cases on Friday. Out of the 2,450 total tests, more than 1,300 staff and inmates tested positive. 

According to the state, analysis of the test results confirmed that 98% of those who tested positive are asymptomatic. 

CoreCivic gave a break down of the testing results as follows: 

Inmate testing

• Total tested: 2,444
• Total negative results: 1,145
• Total positive results: 1,299
• Pending tests: 13

Staff testing

• Total tested: 281
• Total negative results: 192
• Total positive results: 50
• Pending tests: 39

 

——————————-

 

98% showing no symptoms!

 

For me, these anecdotal accounts are very telling, and they reinforce for me a few things:

 

1) That the Virus is much more widespread than believed and the serology antibody studies have it right.   We are probably talking Nationally anywhere from x15 to x30 what the confirm infection rate.   This particular sample size of over 1300 suggests x40 to x50

 

2) That the true mortality rate is most likely anywhere between .2% - .4%.  And that those under age 60 have an even considerably lower mortality rate of that.  Probably somewhere around to the .07% - .12% range.   And if they have less than 2 comorbidities even lower than that.

 

3) That contact tracing will be used much more effectively on a targeted basis.  Areas that are deemed at higher risk and frontline “essential” workers.   
 

4) That we just need to accept the virus is going to be with us until we reach herd immunity and/or have a vaccine.   Protect the most vulnerable, have therapeutics in place for them And that the vast majority of people will be able to fight this off.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Kemp said:

If you flatten the curve at 500 deaths a day forever, that's mission accomplished?

What?

[Doc Brown]

57 minutes ago, Kemp said:

The probable reason for young people getting hit worse during the Spanish Flu is that older people had probably already been through it.

Huh?

 

 

[billsfan1959]

39 minutes ago, Kemp said:

You're trying to argue with people who don't care about other people.

 

You are a walking cliché of left wing, self-annointed enlightenment springing from a delusional sense of moral and intellectual superiority.

 

[Doc Brown]

10 minutes ago, Magox said:

More on asymptotic carriers at another prison facility.
 

——————

 

The Tennessee Department of Correction confirmed the positive cases on Friday. Out of the 2,450 total tests, more than 1,300 staff and inmates tested positive. 

According to the state, analysis of the test results confirmed that 98% of those who tested positive are asymptomatic. 

CoreCivic gave a break down of the testing results as follows: 

Inmate testing

• Total tested: 2,444
• Total negative results: 1,145
• Total positive results: 1,299
• Pending tests: 13

Staff testing

• Total tested: 281
• Total negative results: 192
• Total positive results: 50
• Pending tests: 39

 

——————————-

 

98% showing no symptoms!

 

For me, these anecdotal accounts are very telling, and they reinforce for me a few things:

 

1) That the Virus is much more widespread than believed and the serology antibody studies have it right.   We are probably talking Nationally anywhere from x15 to x30 what the confirm infection rate.   This particular sample size of over 1300 suggests x40 to x50

 

2) That the true mortality rate is most likely anywhere between .2% - .4%.  And that those under age 60 have an even considerably lower mortality rate of that.  Probably somewhere around to the .07% - .12% range.   And if they have less than 2 comorbidities even lower than that.

 

3) That contact tracing will be used much more effectively on a targeted basis.  Areas that are deemed at higher risk and frontline “essential” workers.   
 

4) That we just need to accept the virus is going to be with us until we reach herd immunity and/or have a vaccine.   Protect the most vulnerable, have therapeutics in place for them And that the vast majority of people will be able to fight this off.

I wonder how many tested were still in the incubation period.  I hope they follow up on it.

[Magox]

14 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I wonder how many tested were still in the incubation period.  I hope they follow up on it.

 

Did you see the pork plant and other 4 prisons that showed similar findings that I posted a couple pages back?

 

 

Also, this is fascinating as well:

 

———————-

 

• Early look at data from 100 New York hospitals shows that 66% of new admissions related to the virus are people who were at home, Cuomo said. 

 

“This is a surprise: Overwhelmingly, the people were at home,” he added. “We thought maybe they were taking public transportation, and we’ve taken special precautions on public transportation, but actually no, because these people were literally at home.”

Cuomo said nearly 84% of the hospitalized cases were people who were not commuting to work through car services, personal cars, public transit or walking. He said a majority of those people were either retired or unemployed. Overall, some 73% of the admissions were people over age 51. 

He said the information shows that those who are hospitalized are predominantly from the downstate area in or around New York City, are not working or traveling and are not essential employees. He also said a majority of the cases in New York City are minorities, with nearly half being African American or Hispanic. 
 

————

 

While data shows the coronavirus is on the decline in New York, the new survey results appear to clash with Cuomo’s prior assurances that isolation can reliably prevent transmission.

 

———————

 

 

You can’t make as many assumptions that you think you may be able to out of this because the data is very incomplete.   But I do believe there is one major one which I think is becoming evidently clear.  Draconian Shut down measures help mitigate to a degree but not nearly as much as they had hoped.   And that in retrospect this whole shut down was not the right way to go about it, at least not outside of the densely populated areas.   And that the evidence is mounting that as a nation we should be relaxing the measures in place and get people back to more normalcy.
 

 

 

I just hope that lessons are learned for the future when this happens again. 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Magox

[shoshin]

Isolation in Nyc does not resemble isolation in Orchard Park. 

[Justice]

7 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

You don't find it DEEPLY troubling that CBS news is faking stories to hype the fear? Isn't that the opposite of their mandate as journalists? 

 

Add this to the litany of fake stories pushed by CBS and others over just the past few years and you start to see a clear and inarguable pattern of deception designed to make you AFRAID so others can CONTROL you. 

* "Iraq has WMD! We must invade lest the smoking gun be a mushroom cloud!" (how did that work out?)

* "The US Government is not spying on American citizens illegally" (oops)

* "Russia and Trump worked together to steal the 2016 election!" (oops)

 

The media is not your friend. It's not an ally of truth. It's a mechanism of control -- and you have two choices. Either wake up and resist that control, or succumb to it and turn off your independent thinking and let yourself become comfortable in bondage. 

Troubling indeed. I’ve never been the type to believe the news. My posting history here should

attest to that. My question to you is one can not assume this is new but why are we finally hearing about it now? Why didn’t all the past presidents expose it? Is there a deeper conspiracy?

 

6 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

What isn’t being said here is they’re investigating why their tests are coming up with such odd results. No mention of where they got their testing kits from. 
 

6 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

You sure about that? 

 

 

He’s talking out of both sides of his mouth here. I don’t trust this guy. 

[Doc Brown]

8 minutes ago, Magox said:

Did you see the pork plant and other 4 prisons that showed similar findings that I posted a couple pages back?

I just did and there seemed to be no follow up studies on any of them regarding possible incubation period.  Nevertheless, it's just more evidence it's highly contagious, asymptomatic to most people who contract it, and we're pry closer to herd immunity than we realize.  It should give policy makers more incentive to open things up as quickly as possible.

[Buffalo_Gal]

5 minutes ago, Justice said:

He’s talking out of both sides of his mouth here. I don’t trust this guy. 

 

You are not alone.

 

[Motorin']

41 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

You are a walking cliché of left wing, self-annointed enlightenment springing from a delusional sense of moral and intellectual superiority.

 

As opposed to the walking cliché of right wing, bitter criticism springing from a delusional sense of moral and intellectual superiority? 

[Kemp]

2 hours ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said:

1.) The two folks in Arizona that toasted the resistance with fish tank cleaner were, in fact, Dem donors (and police are investigating if the wife did this to murder her husband.)

 

2.) UV rays do, in fact kill the virus. The CDC investigated it. It kills alot of germs, bacteria, and yes, viruses. Hospitals have been using UV light to sanitize for decades.

 

3.) Joe Biden's recent verbal gaffes are well known. He really should be at home enjoying time with his grandkids. The whole debacle has evolved from pathetic, to just plain sad.

 

4.) You said tin foil, not ID BillzFan.

 

1. Haven't seen that. Do you have a link?

2. Only one kind of UV light works. UVC.

3. COVFEFE

4.

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

What?

 

Flattening a curve is merely the first step. It can still go up again and even if it flattens, if it doesn't go down, it's not mission accomplished. 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Kemp said:

Flattening a curve is merely the first step. It can still go up again and even if it flattens, if it doesn't go down, it's not mission accomplished. 

The number of flu cases go up every year. And we have flu vaccines. I’m curious what end goal you have in mind?

[Deranged Rhino]

Just now, FireChans said:

The number of flu cases go up every year. And we have flu vaccines. I’m curious what end goal you have in mind?

He will let you know that when MSNBC lets him know. 

[Kemp]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

Huh?

 

 

 

If young people are hit hard and older people aren't, the most likely reason would be that older people probably already had antibodies from a previous infection. 

[Doc Brown]

12 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

If young people are hit hard and older people aren't, the most likely reason would be that older people probably already had antibodies from a previous infection. 

Got ya.  Thanks for clarifying.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, Magox said:

Let's just use common sense here for a second.  These are two examples and it's a pretty large sample size, we are talking about over 4000 positive test cases where on average 97% showed no symptoms.

 

That is an astounding figure.   How in the world are you going to contact trace people effectively if such a large portion of the infected population are not showing any symptoms?

 

What?  Someone who is showing no symptoms is expected to request a test?  That's not going to happen.

 

I don't intend to hang in here, but I wandered over because I was paged so I'll weigh in here. This seems like a misunderstanding of how contact tracing works.  BECAUSE there are so many asymptomatic people, contact tracing is ABSOLUTELY critical with this disease.

 

It doesn't depend upon someone who is showing no symptoms requesting a test.

 

I have symptoms.  I get a test.  It's positive.  I have covid-19.  I work in a plant where I have close contact with you and 200 other people on my shift.  I take a bus home.  All those people get tested.  Let's say you're one of them, you're positive, and you have no symptoms at this point.  Now we want to trace your contacts and test them.

 

In industries where people have to work shoulder to shoulder, yes, contact tracing is gonna be a bear.   A kodiak bear. This is where social distancing continues to be important - obviously, if someone can work from home, or works in a workspace where people are able to be spaced 6 feet apart, have good ventilation, and don't share common equipment, the infection rates may be lower and the contact tracing is only a crabby raccoon, not a kodiak bear.

 

Everyone "masking up" is also going to be critical, so that while contact tracing is ongoing, asymptomatic people aren't out bopping around don't unknowingly infect others

 

Peace out

 

32 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The number of flu cases go up every year. And we have flu vaccines. I’m curious what end goal you have in mind?

 

My end goal is getting to a basic reproduction number that doesn't overwhelm the healthcare system.  No bueno to HCW or to patients.

 

You?

 

 

53 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I just did and there seemed to be no follow up studies on any of them regarding possible incubation period.  Nevertheless, it's just more evidence it's highly contagious, asymptomatic to most people who contract it, and we're pry closer to herd immunity than we realize.  It should give policy makers more incentive to open things up as quickly as possible.

 

Except that in most areas where antibody tests are ongoing, the finding is 2-6% of the population has anti-covid-19 antibodies.

Herd immunity requires 50-60%.  So the "incentive to open things up" is a little opaque to me here.

[IDBillzFan]

4 hours ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

Thats pure horse-cockery!

 

I just want to note for the newer posters here that in spite of his language above, Mr. Skin-erd is not a Biden supporter.

[Magox]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't intend to hang in here, but I wandered over because I was paged so I'll weigh in here. This seems like a misunderstanding of how contact tracing works.  BECAUSE there are so many asymptomatic people, contact tracing is ABSOLUTELY critical with this disease.

 

It doesn't depend upon someone who is showing no symptoms requesting a test.

 

I have symptoms.  I get a test.  It's positive.  I have covid-19.  I work in a plant where I have close contact with you and 200 other people on my shift.  I take a bus home.  All those people get tested.  Let's say you're one of them, you're positive, and you have no symptoms at this point.  Now we want to trace your contacts and test them.

 

In industries where people have to work shoulder to shoulder, yes, contact tracing is gonna be a bear.   A kodiak bear. This is where social distancing continues to be important - obviously, if someone can work from home, or works in a workspace where people are able to be spaced 6 feet apart, have good ventilation, and don't share common equipment, the infection rates may be lower and the contact tracing is only a crabby raccoon, not a kodiak bear.

 

Everyone "masking up" is also going to be critical, so that while contact tracing is ongoing, asymptomatic people aren't out bopping around don't unknowingly infect others

 

Peace out

 

 

You misunderstood what I said.  I said that contact tracing serves a purpose and that it should be used.
In a subsequent post:

 

————

 

3) That contact tracing will be used much more effectively on a targeted basis.  Areas that are deemed at higher risk and frontline “essential” workers.   

 

—————-

 

 

 But strategically for people at risk or front line “essential” workers.  The idea that we are going to be able to contact trace the majority of the infections is not realistic.  There are too many asymptomatic carriers to be able to do it effectively.  I stand by what I said and I’m fairly certain that we will still see confirmed infections above 10k come sometime in the following winter. No matter how much contact tracing they do.  It’s toothpaste out of the tube.

Edited May 7, 2020 by Magox

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

Could be. I am not sure if there's been a study yet about the contagiousness of asymptomatic people. I know there have been studies of prespymptomatic people, but that may be a different thing. Maybe @Hapless Bills Fan has some insight on this: I could be nuts to think there would be a difference between asypmtomatic and presymptomatic carriers. 

 

Hi @shoshin, if you're talking widespread studies we followed 400 asymptomatic people and looked at all their contacts and how many got infected, hasn't been done.

 

But there have been a number of early contact tracing studies where a person who never developed any symptoms was the clear point of infection for a whole cluster of covid-19 infections, many  of whom did develop symptoms.  One of the first was being discussed in an email chain among US public health scientists and physicians at the end of January.  It may be this study which was eventually published in Critical Care March 27th. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7100442/

 

So it's been very clear since at least towards the end of January: asymptomatic people can infect others.  Maybe not as efficiently as presymptomatic people (who haven't developed symptoms yet, but will) - don't know yet.

[Q-baby!]

44 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

He will let you know that when MSNBC lets him know. 

? OK Twitter boy!! ?

[FireChans]

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

My end goal is getting to a basic reproduction number that doesn't overwhelm the healthcare system.  No bueno to HCW or to patients.

That’s what flattening the curve is for. What is the next step?

[snafu]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

I just did and there seemed to be no follow up studies on any of them regarding possible incubation period.  Nevertheless, it's just more evidence it's highly contagious, asymptomatic to most people who contract it, and we're pry closer to herd immunity than we realize.  It should give policy makers more incentive to open things up as quickly as possible.

 

It should.

It won’t.

 

[4merper4mer]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

The number of flu cases go up every year. And we have flu vaccines. I’m curious what end goal you have in mind?

End goal you ask?

 

Communize.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

That’s what flattening the curve is for. What is the next step?

 

No.  "Flattening the curve" is a hail-Mary desperation play when an epidemic has escaped containment and mitigation is the only option.

As society reopens, the next step SHOULD be to systematically #testtraceisolate to ring-fence infection clusters.  The point of "flattening the curve" initially is to lower the number of infections to the point where #testtraceisolate is possible

As well, take other reproduction-number lowering actions like requiring people to wear masks at work, on public transportation, and in stores, and asking them to so in public especially in situations where distance can't be maintained.  Ask people who can do so to continue to work at home and minimize business travel.

 

 

[3rdnlng]

24 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

I just want to note for the newer posters here that in spite of his language above, Mr. Skin-erd is not a Biden supporter.

That's no malarkey!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, snafu said:

It should.

 

Why should it, when outside a few hotspots like NYC, meat packing plants, prisons, cruise ships - most epidemiologists estimate 2-6% of the population has currently been infected and so far antibody studies bear this out?  Herd immunity 50-60% immune.

[Magox]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

I just did and there seemed to be no follow up studies on any of them regarding possible incubation period.  Nevertheless, it's just more evidence it's highly contagious, asymptomatic to most people who contract it, and we're pry closer to herd immunity than we realize.  It should give policy makers more incentive to open things up as quickly as possible.

 

Hap is right in that we aren’t anywhere near reaching herd immunity with the exception of NY city which isn’t quite there yet either.   But we don’t know how long a vaccine will come about and until then we need to rely on the data, have some good therapeutics in place, strategically attempt to mitigate the virus and protect the most vulnerable all while gradually and eventually liberally reopening the economy.  The economic costs and all the residual effects on health will far outweigh the actual direct impacts of the virus.

Edited May 7, 2020 by Magox

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No.  "Flattening the curve" is a hail-Mary desperation play when an epidemic has escaped containment and mitigation is the only option.

As society reopens, the next step SHOULD be to systematically #testtraceisolate to ring-fence infection clusters.  The point of "flattening the curve" initially is to lower the number of infections to the point where #testtraceisolate is possible

As well, take other reproduction-number lowering actions like requiring people to wear masks at work, on public transportation, and in stores, and asking them to so in public especially in situations where distance can't be maintained.  Ask people who can do so to continue to work at home and minimize business travel.

 

 

Sure, I’m all good with that. But as you said, we start to reopen. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

You misunderstood what I said.  I said that contact tracing serves a purpose and that it should be used.
In a subsequent post:

 

————

 

3) That contact tracing will be used much more effectively on a targeted basis.  Areas that are deemed at higher risk and frontline “essential” workers.   

 

—————-

 

 

 But strategically for people at risk or front line “essential” workers.  The idea that we are going to be able to contact trace the majority of the infections is not realistic.  There are too many asymptomatic carriers to be able to do it effectively.  I stand by what I said and I’m fairly certain that we will still see confirmed infections above 10k come sometime in the following winter. No matter how much contact tracing they do.  It’s toothpaste out of the tube.

 

If we don't generally #testtraceisolate, then unless we achieve close to 100% public mask wearing, the chances of keeping the disease burden from overwhelming hospitals again seem slim.

 

Or what is your notion on how one achieves that latter?

 

I think the large number of asymptomatic infected people arise in specific circumstances - places where large numbers of people are regularly forced into close contact such as meat packing plants, prisons, cruise ships etc. 

 

The whole point of "flatten the curve" from an epidemiologist viewpoint (and I am not an epidemiologist though I have worked with same on occasion) is to buy time to increase testing and put together a contact-tracing mechanism, while lowering the # cases to the point where #testtraceisolate is feasible.  After Wuhan, China appears able to have done this.  Singapore seems to have done this - ID'd an outbreak and contained.  S. Korea seems to have done this with several surges. Several European nations will be giving their try.

 

It's the same disease here, are you saying we are somehow less capable, more deficient and more sociologically challenged than democracies such as S. Korea, Taiwan etc?

 

That may be a rhetorical question fair warning I'm not likely to hang here.

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Sure, I’m all good with that. But as you said, we start to reopen. 

 

From an epidemiological viewpoint, reopening should occur when the number of cases have subsided and testing/contact tracing capabilities have been built to the point where #testtraceisolate is possible.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If we don't generally #testtraceisolate, then unless we achieve close to 100% public mask wearing, the chances of keeping the disease burden from overwhelming hospitals again seem slim.

 

Or what is your notion on how one achieves that latter?

 

I think the large number of asymptomatic infected people arise in specific circumstances - places where large numbers of people are regularly forced into close contact such as meat packing plants, prisons, cruise ships etc. 

 

The whole point of "flatten the curve" from an epidemiologist viewpoint (and I am not an epidemiologist though I have worked with same on occasion) is to buy time to increase testing and put together a contact-tracing mechanism, while lowering the # cases to the point where #testtraceisolate is feasible.  After Wuhan, China appears able to have done this.  Singapore seems to have done this - ID'd an outbreak and contained.  S. Korea seems to have done this with several surges. Several European nations will be giving their try.

 

It's the same disease here, are you saying we are somehow less capable, more deficient and more sociologically challenged than democracies such as S. Korea, Taiwan etc?

 

That may be a rhetorical question fair warning I'm not likely to hang here.

 

From an epidemiological viewpoint, reopening should occur when the number of cases have subsided and testing/contact tracing capabilities have been built to the point where #testtraceisolate is possible.

I do not believe the first part. Didn’t this whole saga begin with everyone running around that hospitals were gonna overflow and we would be the next Italy? Hospitals across the country are effectively at half census or were at one point. The hospitals themselves are reopening elective surgeries. 

 

To your second, this is not an epidemiological experiment. A judgement call must be made between the economy/people’s livelihoods and 100% by the book disease control.

[snafu]

33 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Why should it, when outside a few hotspots like NYC, meat packing plants, prisons, cruise ships - most epidemiologists estimate 2-6% of the population has currently been infected and so far antibody studies bear this out?  Herd immunity 50-60% immune.

 

You’ve been a boon to this community, and I mean that. I’ve learned a helluva lot from you.

I was being pretty lazy in my response to Doc Brown. To answer your question, I’ve seen recent reports from Cuomo that say that up to 21% of NYC residents showed antibodies, and over 13% statewide. That was at least a week ago. The numbers must be a bit higher now, and it is my opinion (based on reports) that there’s a significant multiplier (7x, 10x, 15x, 20x ??) higher than those results which will push the number closer to herd immunity than the estimates you are stating.

 

Couple that with what Cuomo said today (yesterday) stating that up to 66% of hospitalized New Yorkers were infected at home, while not working, and I’ve got a problem believing that this policy should remain in place as is for much longer. The hardest hit part of the country so far (by far) has been NYC. Reports indicate that the hospitals are well below capacity.   If other parts of the country are now “hot” then deal with them S. Korea style. Isn’t it much easier to do that in less densely populated areas?

 

You can can go to any of my posts on this subject and see that I’ve advocated regional opening where possible, and more testing and tracing.  I believe that as long as people are diligent and honest, they will be able to self monitor and report their illness to their health care professionals and family and friends more quickly than government-appointed tracers, and the contacts can be tested and monitored as needed.  I believe that the development of quick and easy (saliva based) testing makes it much more possible to let people get back to work to a reasonable extent.   I believe (without any overt proof) that researchers every day are gaining a better understanding of treatment protocols.  I believe that PPE is being replenished so that the inevitable spike can be met with more preparedness than we had at the outset of this mess.

 

Maybe I’m the eternal optimist. I also balance my optimism with knowledge that people are going to continue to get sick and die whether we open or remain shut in. I just believe that the shutdown of our society (not just the economy) is only prolonging our necessary march toward true herd immunity.

 

I realize that my post may be thin on facts, charts, numbers and heavy on what I glean from news reports.  It is how I see things. Thanks for asking, I mean that.

 

 

Edited May 7, 2020 by snafu