The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Magox]

34 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If we don't generally #testtraceisolate, then unless we achieve close to 100% public mask wearing, the chances of keeping the disease burden from overwhelming hospitals again seem slim.

 

Or what is your notion on how one achieves that latter?

 

I think the large number of asymptomatic infected people arise in specific circumstances - places where large numbers of people are regularly forced into close contact such as meat packing plants, prisons, cruise ships etc. 

 

The whole point of "flatten the curve" from an epidemiologist viewpoint (and I am not an epidemiologist though I have worked with same on occasion) is to buy time to increase testing and put together a contact-tracing mechanism, while lowering the # cases to the point where #testtraceisolate is feasible.  After Wuhan, China appears able to have done this.  Singapore seems to have done this - ID'd an outbreak and contained.  S. Korea seems to have done this with several surges. Several European nations will be giving their try.

 

It's the same disease here, are you saying we are somehow less capable, more deficient and more sociologically challenged than democracies such as S. Korea, Taiwan etc?

 

That may be a rhetorical question fair warning I'm not likely to hang here.

 

From an epidemiological viewpoint, reopening should occur when the number of cases have subsided and testing/contact tracing capabilities have been built to the point where #testtraceisolate is possible.

 

There are some rather large differences between South Korea/Taiwan and the United States.

 

Before I get into them this is what I said earlier:

 

—————

If we had been starting off with a much lower baseline to work off, like near 0 then maybe we could employ this strategy as an effective tool to mitigate it.  But we aren't, and most likely by the end of summer, we will still have more than quite a few infections. 

 

—————-

 

Taiwan has/had less than 500 confirmed cases in total.  We get 500 confirmed cases in a half hour.   
 

South Korea has/had less than 11k confirmed cases in total, we get that in about 10 hours.

 

If you look at my quote I made the case that contact tracing could work if you are working off of a low baseline,  we definitely would not be.  We have about 25k confirmed cases a day, which means we realistically have anywhere from 150k to as high as 400k actual new cases daily due to the asymptomatic cases.   That’s each and every day just piling on top of one another.   So when I said the toothpaste is out the tube, it means it’s too late for that.  There is no way you can contact trace something that is outside the realm of control.  Unless somehow we can get those cases to below maybe like 1000-2000 confirmed cases daily and even then I am still highly skeptical.

 

Taiwan and South Korea went through MERS and SARS and already have a playbook for this.  Secondly their populace is willing to give up freedoms and allow cell phone tracking and basically just listen to what their government tells them to do.

 

Im not here to debate what people should be doing according to health officials believe but what they won’t do.  And that is allow their lives to be completely upended for an extended period of time.  Many won’t wear masks like they do in Taiwan/SK, many are skeptical of what the government tells them to do unlike Taiwan/SK.   In short compliance Of recommendations or dictates will not be followed by many here in the US as it would be in SK/Taiwan.

 

It truly is an apples and oranges comparison.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I think you all guys need a little "sexy cyborg" in here

 

Personally I think if our leaders give a clear and unambiguous message, people will do the right thing.  We saw that in the huge mobilization efforts around the World Wars.  We saw behavior change around seatbelts when massive public service campaigns were joined to legal penalties.  It's silly to say just many "won't wear masks"  - of course, when they see our President and VP/Task Force Leader not wearing masks, and when Missouri Governor says "it's a personal choice, I chose to not wear a mask", OF COURSE people won't wear masks.  But we could do the experiment.

I leave you with Better Hand Washing, courtesy of Naomi Wu

 

[Justice]

On 5/1/2020 at 7:09 PM, ~Kostabi~ said:

Robs House this is for you.  This will clear up any questions in regards to my views on the coronavirus.

 

744 pages and this is where we’re still at. All we

needed was this one post lol 

[Magox]

21 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I think you all guys need a little "sexy cyborg" in here

 

Personally I think if our leaders give a clear and unambiguous message, people will do the right thing.  We saw that in the huge mobilization efforts around the World Wars.  We saw behavior change around seatbelts when massive public service campaigns were joined to legal penalties.  It's silly to say just many "won't wear masks"  - of course, when they see our President and VP/Task Force Leader not wearing masks, and when Missouri Governor says "it's a personal choice, I chose to not wear a mask", OF COURSE people won't wear masks.  But we could do the experiment.

I leave you with Better Hand Washing, courtesy of Naomi Wu

 

 

You know who else thinks it’s silly to wear masks?

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PRa6t_e7dgI

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, snafu said:

 

You’ve been a boon to this community, and I mean that. I’ve learned a helluva lot from you.

I was being pretty lazy in my response to Doc Brown. To answer your question, I’ve seen recent reports from Cuomo that say that up to 21% of NYC residents showed antibodies, and over 13% statewide. That was at least a week ago. The numbers must be a bit higher now, and it is my opinion (based on reports) that there’s a significant multiplier (7x, 10x, 15x, 20x ??) higher than those results which will push the number closer to herd immunity than the estimates you are stating.

 

Couple that with what Cuomo said today (yesterday) stating that up to 66% of hospitalized New Yorkers were infected at home, while not working, and I’ve got a problem believing that this policy should remain in place as is for much longer. The hardest hit part of the country so far (by far) has been NYC. Reports indicate that the hospitals are well below capacity.   If other parts of the country are now “hot” then deal with them S. Korea style. Isn’t it much easier to do that in less densely populated areas?

 

You can can go to any of my posts on this subject and see that I’ve advocated regional opening where possible, and more testing and tracing.  I believe that as long as people are diligent and honest, they will be able to self monitor and report their illness to their health care professionals and family and friends more quickly than government-appointed tracers, and the contacts can be tested and monitored as needed.  I believe that the development of quick and easy (saliva based) testing makes it much more possible to let people get back to work to a reasonable extent.   I believe (without any overt proof) that researchers every day are gaining a better understanding of treatment protocols.  I believe that PPE is being replenished so that the inevitable spike can be met with more preparedness than we had at the outset of this mess.

 

Maybe I’m the eternal optimist. I also balance my optimism with knowledge that people are going to continue to get sick and die whether we open or remain shut in. I just believe that the shutdown of our society (not just the economy) is only prolonging our necessary march toward true herd immunity.

 

I realize that my post may be thin on facts, charts, numbers and heavy on what I glean from news reports.  It is how I see things. Thanks for asking, I mean that.

 

Hi, thanks for the kind word.  I think one needs to distinguish between surveillance and clinically-driven testing here.

 

The RT-PCR testing, especially in the NYC area, has been driven by ill people.  It needs a multiplier. 

 

Antibody testing done by selecting random people or at random locations is surveillance testing.  It should not need a multiplier, if it's truly random.

The 14% overall statewide is the result of averaging 3-4% upstate numbers with 21% NYC numbers.  Something like (3% of 7M Upstate + 21% of 14M people living in NYC)/21M total = 14%.  3%, 14%, and 21% are all well short of 50-60% herd immunity.   NYC is on a "cases double every 2 months" trajectory right now, so that number won't have changed much in a week or so.

 

Let's cross check another way.  Most epidemiologists I follow feel that unless there is a large excess of negative tests - something like 95% negative tests - we aren't close to catching most covid-19 cases.  This is especially true of an outbreak area like NYC where the testing was limited to very ill people for a while, and it's still only running about 60% negative/40% positive.  The estimate is that the case numbers should be multiplied 10x. 

 

Currently NYC has about 430k cases.  10x would mean actually 4.3M cases.  21% of Population 14M by antibody testing would mean ~3M cases.  Not that far off for a rule of thumb.

Now let's look at Tompkins County, NY which currently has 97% negatives on its RT-PCR testing and may be closer to catching all the cases.  3% covid-19 positive by RT-PCR and 3-4% having had the disease by antibody testing pretty close match.   I don't think they're anywhere near herd immunity either.

The hospitals in NYC during the peak were ugly.  Even cities that weren't so utterly overwhelmed but had an outbreak such as New Orleans and Atlanta were struggling.  If we push towards "herd immunity" without controlling that, it will be uglier.  I hear people won't wear masks, won't maintain social distance in nice weather, won't stay shut down.  What will we do?  Guess we'll find out.

Other countries are doing this much better.  Maybe we should stop making excuses for why we can't do as well and show that America actually is still great.

14 minutes ago, Magox said:

You know who else thinks it’s silly to wear masks?

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PRa6t_e7dgI

 

 

That's March 8, when Fauci was speaking from the data available at the time - when the number of asymptomatic carriers and the length of the presymptomatic transmission period were not known.  I discussed that in a response to Figster on the OTW discussion thread.

 

Advice changes as more is learned, so what is the point of waving around something 2 months old?  That's pleistocene in pandemic terms.

 

[Motorin']

13 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

You know who else thinks it’s silly to wear masks?

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PRa6t_e7dgI

 

Did you actually listen to what he said? 

 

He said people people who are infected need to wear masks. This was also over a mo the ago, and he was trying to stop people from buying up all of the medical masks. 

 

I'll stop wearing a mask in public when I can get a test and know I'm not infected. 

[Magox]

19 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

Did you actually listen to what he said? 

 

He said people people who are infected need to wear masks. This was also over a mo the ago, and he was trying to stop people from buying up all of the medical masks. 

 

I'll stop wearing a mask in public when I can get a test and know I'm not infected. 

 

The question is did you?

 

and no, that is not what he was saying.  He was saying that at this stage of the game it’s silly to wear a mask. You can visually see him scoffing at the idea of wearing a mask. He thinks it’s silly and he made that visibly and audibly clear on a couple occasions.    What he said was unless you are infected or someone in the medical field then those are who should be wearing it.  He even goes on to say “if it makes you feel better”.  
 

It was only until the interviewer at the very end after Fauci made it very clear that the benefits for people who don’t have the virus that it’s silly and not effective to wear masks that the interviewer said “to preserve masks” and Fauci agreed.

 

you can try to spin it all you like, The bottom line is that Fauci thinks it’s silly for people who don’t have the virus to wear a mask and he explains why citing three reasons.

 

Listen to it again.  

[snafu]

26 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

The hospitals in NYC during the peak were ugly.  Even cities that weren't so utterly overwhelmed but had an outbreak such as New Orleans and Atlanta were struggling.  If we push towards "herd immunity" without controlling that, it will be uglier.  I hear people won't wear masks, won't maintain social distance in nice weather, won't stay shut down.  What will we do?  Guess we'll find out.

 

We shall find out. 

I just want to clarify that I don’t advocate for an “all stops out” opening.  I think it is too early for that.  There’s a balance, for sure. It should be found quickly.  There’s enough talk about planning.  Eventually the do-ing needs to start.  Sooner than later.  And the people in Tompkins County can get the S. Korea track and trace — that’s a good example for that control to prevent overwhelming. This should have been started anywhere outside of the Northeast Corridor and other large city hotspots at least a month ago. But here we are.  

 

[Magox]

43 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Hi, thanks for the kind word.  I think one needs to distinguish between surveillance and clinically-driven testing here.

 

The RT-PCR testing, especially in the NYC area, has been driven by ill people.  It needs a multiplier. 

 

Antibody testing done by selecting random people or at random locations is surveillance testing.  It should not need a multiplier, if it's truly random.

The 14% overall statewide is the result of averaging 3-4% upstate numbers with 21% NYC numbers.  Something like (3% of 7M Upstate + 21% of 14M people living in NYC)/21M total = 14%.  3%, 14%, and 21% are all well short of 50-60% herd immunity.   NYC is on a "cases double every 2 months" trajectory right now, so that number won't have changed much in a week or so.

 

Let's cross check another way.  Most epidemiologists I follow feel that unless there is a large excess of negative tests - something like 95% negative tests - we aren't close to catching most covid-19 cases.  This is especially true of an outbreak area like NYC where the testing was limited to very ill people for a while, and it's still only running about 60% negative/40% positive.  The estimate is that the case numbers should be multiplied 10x. 

 

Currently NYC has about 430k cases.  10x would mean actually 4.3M cases.  21% of Population 14M by antibody testing would mean ~3M cases.  Not that far off for a rule of thumb.

Now let's look at Tompkins County, NY which currently has 97% negatives on its RT-PCR testing and may be closer to catching all the cases.  3% covid-19 positive by RT-PCR and 3-4% having had the disease by antibody testing pretty close match.   I don't think they're anywhere near herd immunity either.

The hospitals in NYC during the peak were ugly.  Even cities that weren't so utterly overwhelmed but had an outbreak such as New Orleans and Atlanta were struggling.  If we push towards "herd immunity" without controlling that, it will be uglier.  I hear people won't wear masks, won't maintain social distance in nice weather, won't stay shut down.  What will we do?  Guess we'll find out.

Other countries are doing this much better.  Maybe we should stop making excuses for why we can't do as well and show that America actually is still great.

 

That's March 8, when Fauci was speaking from the data available at the time - when the number of asymptomatic carriers and the length of the presymptomatic transmission period were not known.  I discussed that in a response to Figster on the OTW discussion thread.

 

Advice changes as more is learned, so what is the point of waving around something 2 months old?  That's pleistocene in pandemic terms.

 

 

You misunderstood what he said.

 

He said “when you are in the middle of an outbreak wearing a mask may make people feel better (he even gives the hand quotation sign as to mock the idea) and it may even block a droplet, but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it does”. Then he goes on to cite how there are unintended risks of hands touching the face due to usage of the mask.

 

Then he says once again that masks are for people who have the virus and for medical providers.   He even says that the 85% of people in Asia wearing masks “it’s fine, it’s fine”. Essentially implying what he said earlier which was “if it makes them feel better”.   In other words, from his view it’s not necessary.   
 

 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Magox

[Justice]

18 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

You misunderstood what he said.

 

He said “when you are in the middle of an outbreak wearing a mask may make people feel better (he even gives the hand quotation sign as to mock the idea) and it may even block a droplet, but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it does”. Then he goes on to cite how there are unintended risks of hands touching the face due to usage of the mask.

 

Then he says once again that masks are for people who have the virus and for medical providers.   He even says that the 85% of people in Asia wearing masks “it’s fine, it’s fine”. Essentially implying what he said earlier which was “if it makes them feel better”.   In other words, from his view it’s not necessary.   
 

 

‘It’s not necessary’ and yet he says medical workers need it. Hmm. 

[Q-baby!]

34 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

The question is did you?

 

and no, that is not what he was saying.  He was saying that at this stage of the game it’s silly to wear a mask. You can visually see him scoffing at the idea of wearing a mask. He thinks it’s silly and he made that visibly and audibly clear on a couple occasions.    What he said was unless you are infected or someone in the medical field then those are who should be wearing it.  He even goes on to say “if it makes you feel better”.  
 

It was only until the interviewer at the very end after Fauci made it very clear that the benefits for people who don’t have the virus that it’s silly and not effective to wear masks that the interviewer said “to preserve masks” and Fauci agreed.

 

you can try to spin it all you like, The bottom line is that Fauci thinks it’s silly for people who don’t have the virus to wear a mask and he explains why citing three reasons.

 

Listen to it again.  

If only “everyone who needs a test can get a test” was true, then we would actually know who had the virus and then we would know who should be wearing a mask. 

[billsfan1959]

6 hours ago, Motorin' said:

As opposed to the walking cliché of right wing, bitter criticism springing from a delusional sense of moral and intellectual superiority? 

Please regale us all some more with your intellectually stunning analysis of the Spanish Flu. It had us all on the edge of our seats.

No, really....

 

11 hours ago, Motorin' said:

A guy who thinks he knows the depths of who I am from a few posts about corona virus is calling me extreme and programmed. Alrighty. 

 

This from a guy who compared another poster to David Koresh (or Koresch, as you like to call him) based "on a few posts about corona virus." Kinda does shed a little light on the depth of who you are....

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

No good deed goes unpunished:

 

https://www.pix11.com/news/coronavirus/health-workers-that-volunteered-to-come-to-ny-during-pandemic-have-to-pay-state-income-tax-cuomo

 

 

 

Edited May 7, 2020 by \GoBillsInDallas/

[billsfan1959]

8 minutes ago, \GoBillsInDallas/ said:

No good deed goes unpunished:

 

https://www.pix11.com/news/coronavirus/health-workers-that-volunteered-to-come-to-ny-during-pandemic-have-to-pay-state-income-tax-cuomo

 

 

It could be worse. while they were in NY, Cuomo could have made them stay in Nursing Homes where he liked to put Covid patients....

[Kemp]

9 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

It could be worse. while they were in NY, Cuomo could have made them stay in Nursing Homes where he liked to put Covid patients....

 

He claimed he was unaware.

 

Also, some nursing homes said no, while others took them because it meant more money in their pockets.

[billsfan1959]

Just now, Kemp said:

He claimed he was unaware.

 

If it was Trump and that was his response, you would have already written post after post condemning him in your typical, mind numbing, stream of consciousness fashion...

[Kemp]

27 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

If it was Trump and that was his response, you would have already written post after post condemning him in your typical, mind numbing, stream of consciousness fashion...

 

I didn't say I believe him, which is a stark contrast to how Trump supporters cheerlead him as he goes from one lie to another.

[billsfan1959]

9 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

I didn't say I believe him, which is a stark contrast to how Trump supporters cheerlead him as he goes from one lie to another.

 

Well, if you don't believe him, then where is your outrage? Putting Covid patients in nursing homes literally killed people.

 

You have been on a crusade of outrage - page after page of posts regarding Trump making positive statements about China in January, making a stupid comment about bleach, and other inconsquential things. And yet, you are strangely silent on this or, for that matter, anything for which you can't find a way to blame Trump.

 

Hypocrisy, thy name is Kemp...

 

Edited May 7, 2020 by billsfan1959

[Reality Check]

I was wrong about Bill Gates. Here is some proof that we can trust him.http://stateofthenation.co/?p=12320

[Kemp]

2 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Well, if you don't believe him, then where is your outrage? Putting Covid patients in nursing homes literally killed people.

 

You have been on a crusade of outrage - page after page of posts regarding Trump making positive statements about China in January, making a stupid comment about bleach, and other inconsquential things. And yet, you are strangely silent on this or, for that matter, anything for which you can't find a way to blame Trump.

 

Hypocrisy, thy name is Kemp...

 

 

Pretty funny. I acknowledge he might be lying and it's the only time I'm aware of an accusation against him.

 

Name one time any Trump supporter here has once acknowledged Trump had lied, even though there are multiple confirmed lies by him in regards to the virus.

 

Why aren't you outraged by this?

 

When: Thursday, March 12
The claim: All U.S. citizens arriving from Europe would be subject to medical screening, COVID-19 testing, and quarantine if necessary. “If an American is coming back or anybody is coming back, we’re testing,” Trump said. “We have a tremendous testing setup where people coming in have to be tested … We’re not putting them on planes if it shows positive, but if they do come here, we’re quarantining.”
The truth: Testing is already severely limited in the United States. It is not true that all Americans returning to the country are being tested, nor that anyone is being forced to quarantine, CNN has reported.

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, Kemp said:

Pretty funny. I acknowledge he might be lying and it's the only time I'm aware of an accusation against him.

 

Placing Covid patients back into nursing homes with healthy residents literally resulted in additional deaths.

 

Your response is to say you acknowledge Cuomo might be lying and then go right back to spewing your nonsense with CNN as the foundation for your credibility.

 

You are a one trick pony.

 

[Taro T]

9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't intend to hang in here, but I wandered over because I was paged so I'll weigh in here. This seems like a misunderstanding of how contact tracing works.  BECAUSE there are so many asymptomatic people, contact tracing is ABSOLUTELY critical with this disease.

 

It doesn't depend upon someone who is showing no symptoms requesting a test.

 

I have symptoms.  I get a test.  It's positive.  I have covid-19.  I work in a plant where I have close contact with you and 200 other people on my shift.  I take a bus home.  All those people get tested.  Let's say you're one of them, you're positive, and you have no symptoms at this point.  Now we want to trace your contacts and test them.

 

In industries where people have to work shoulder to shoulder, yes, contact tracing is gonna be a bear.   A kodiak bear. This is where social distancing continues to be important - obviously, if someone can work from home, or works in a workspace where people are able to be spaced 6 feet apart, have good ventilation, and don't share common equipment, the infection rates may be lower and the contact tracing is only a crabby raccoon, not a kodiak bear.

 

Everyone "masking up" is also going to be critical, so that while contact tracing is ongoing, asymptomatic people aren't out bopping around don't unknowingly infect others

 

Peace out

 

 

My end goal is getting to a basic reproduction number that doesn't overwhelm the healthcare system.  No bueno to HCW or to patients.

 

You?

 

 

 

Except that in most areas where antibody tests are ongoing, the finding is 2-6% of the population has anti-covid-19 antibodies.

Herd immunity requires 50-60%.  So the "incentive to open things up" is a little opaque to me here.

 

1st off, thanks for all the info.  It has been very helpful.

 

2 questions, if you'd be so kind.  How do we get to herd immunity levels in any time frame significantly less than a full year+ if we continue to self quarrantine if with self quarantining for close to 2 months we're still around only 5% of the population having been exposed to this (2-6% testing positive for antibodies)?  Do we not allow "non-essential" workers back to work before herd immunity is reached?

[Tiberius]

12 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

Who said he was a genius of any kind?

Now this cold has put in charge of finding a vaccine. God help us all 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/kushner-botched-the-covid-response-now-trumps-tapped-him-to-get-a-vaccine-by-the-end-of-2020

 

 

Already under fire for his role atop a shadow task force aiding the administration’s response to the coronavirus, senior White House aide Jared Kushner is now being handed another critical job: helping get a vaccine for the disease developed in record time. 

President Donald Trump, who has said he believes a COVID-19 vaccine will be available by the end of the year, is turning to his son-in-law to help streamline the effort, branded, “Operation Warp Speed.” Kushner is working alongside White House senior adviser Peter Navarro, who pitched the operation via memo to the president’s coronavirus task force as early as this February.

[billsfan1959]

23 minutes ago, Kemp said:

Name one time any Trump supporter here has once acknowledged Trump had lied, even though there are multiple confirmed lies by him in regards to the virus.

 

Why aren't you outraged by this?

 

I will try to explain the difference.

 

I have not gone on and on blaming anyone regarding the coronavirus. I happen to believe there will be plenty of time when this is all over to assess the good, the bad, and everything in between. I am not outraged by any of it. My stance has always been that people in power, here and around the world, reacted how they did and when they did according to the information available to them at the time.

 

Do I wish we would have been more prepared and reacted sooner? Of course. I can entertain that thought and, at the same time, believe Trump and others acted when and how they reasonably could have been expected to based on available information. Those are not mutually exclusive views. I didn't get outraged over Trump's statements minimizing the virus any more than I got outraged over leaders like Cuomo, De Blasio, Pelosi, and others minimizing the virus in late February and March. They all were acting in accordance with the information being disseminated at the time. So, I have been entirely consistent.

 

You, on the other hand, have been on a crusade to find blame, and only with Trump. You have been outraged over everything he has said and done and there are pages of your posts to prove it. Yet, you have never gone on, post after post, calling out Cuomo, De Blasio, Pelosi, etc. for the very same things. So, you have not been consistent.

 

That is why you are being hypocritical and I am not.

[Kemp]

18 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Placing Covid patients back into nursing homes with healthy residents literally resulted in additional deaths.

 

Your response is to say you acknowledge Cuomo might be lying and then go right back to spewing your nonsense with CNN as the foundation for your credibility.

 

You are a one trick pony.

 

 

You clearly exposed my hypocrisy when you dismissed an indisputable lie of Trump that may very well have caused more American deaths than has occurred in nursing homes in NY.

 

You don't like the source, yet you can't come up with anything that disputes it, which should be incredibly easy to provide, since you believe everything from them is a lie, so why can't you?

 

You can't claim you're too busy. We know you have access to the Internet, so the ability to refute my facts are at your fingertips. Yet, somehow you can't. How weak is that?

 

You're no different than the biggest idiots here, who when boxed into a corner scream Commie.

 

Prove me wrong that Trump didn't lie about people coming into America.

 

All Trump supporters are too scared to address facts when they interfere with their beliefs. 

 

But I'm the hypocrite.

 

Since we both know that you can't prove what I wrote is wrong, you are only left with changing the topic or tossing out an insult.

 

Perhaps, the funniest part is this is only one of thousands of lies Trump has told that we could go through, and every single time you would be left with the same non-defense.

 

How pathetic is that.

[billsfan1959]

Just now, Kemp said:

But I'm the hypocrite.

How pathetic is that.

 

Finally, something we can agree on. 

[meazza]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I think you all guys need a little "sexy cyborg" in here

 

Personally I think if our leaders give a clear and unambiguous message, people will do the right thing.  We saw that in the huge mobilization efforts around the World Wars.  We saw behavior change around seatbelts when massive public service campaigns were joined to legal penalties.  It's silly to say just many "won't wear masks"  - of course, when they see our President and VP/Task Force Leader not wearing masks, and when Missouri Governor says "it's a personal choice, I chose to not wear a mask", OF COURSE people won't wear masks.  But we could do the experiment.

I leave you with Better Hand Washing, courtesy of Naomi Wu

 

Jesus. Sorry i forgot what we were all talking about.

[Kemp]

Just now, billsfan1959 said:

 

Finally, something we can agree on. 

 

As I just wrote how you would be forced to respond. Can't refute facts. Forced into a non-witticism.

 

As pathetic as usual.

 

Why are you so scared to address it? We both know why. Liars always have to dodge truth.

[billsfan1959]

Just now, Kemp said:

 

As I just wrote how you would be forced to respond. Can't refute facts. Forced into a non-witticism.

 

As pathetic as usual.

 

Why are you so scared to address it? We both know why. Liars always have to dodge truth.

 

[LB3]

Every time I see people arguing about how much we should let science determine how quickly and freely we let people get back to their normal lives, it reminds me of this scene. "Science is a liar...sometimes"?

(Note: This is for levity. I'm not saying science shouldn't be a consideration in determining how quickly the country opens up. Also NSFW - language.)

 

Edited May 7, 2020 by LB3

[Kemp]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

 

And still you can't refute Trump’s lie.

 

What are you so afraid of?

[Tiberius]

A cover up of scientific information. 

 

 

A set of detailed documents created by the nation's top disease investigators meant to give step-by-step advice to local leaders deciding when and how to reopen public places such as mass transit, day care centers and restaurants during the still-raging pandemic has been shelved by the Trump administration. 

The 17-page report by a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention team, titled “Guidance for Implementing the Opening Up America Again Framework,” was researched and written to help faith leaders, business owners, educators and state and local officials as they begin to reopen. 

It was supposed to be published last Friday, but agency scientists were told the guidance “would never see the light of day,” according to a CDC official. The official was not authorized to talk to reporters and spoke to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity.

 

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/health/trump-admin-shelves-cdc-guide-to-reopening-country-official-says/2387759/

[Troll Toll]

1 hour ago, Kemp said:

 

Pretty funny. I acknowledge he might be lying and it's the only time I'm aware of an accusation against him.

 

Name one time any Trump supporter here has once acknowledged Trump had lied, even though there are multiple confirmed lies by him in regards to the virus.

 

Why aren't you outraged by this?

 

When: Thursday, March 12
The claim: All U.S. citizens arriving from Europe would be subject to medical screening, COVID-19 testing, and quarantine if necessary. “If an American is coming back or anybody is coming back, we’re testing,” Trump said. “We have a tremendous testing setup where people coming in have to be tested … We’re not putting them on planes if it shows positive, but if they do come here, we’re quarantining.”
The truth: Testing is already severely limited in the United States. It is not true that all Americans returning to the country are being tested, nor that anyone is being forced to quarantine, CNN has reported.

Wasn’t March 12 the day he instituted the European travel ban? The same ban that saved countless lives and was OPPOSED by the left?

[Kemp]

Just now, Troll Toll said:

Wasn’t March 12 the day he instituted the European travel ban? The same ban that saved countless lives and was OPPOSED by the left?

 

Did Trump do what he claimed in the post?

 

The only possible answers are yes he did or no he didn't. 

[Magox]

Just to be clear, I'm not advocating for not wearing masks.  I'm indifferent about it similar to how Fauci feels on the subject.   Our family wears it simply out of respect for others because really it's not skin off our backs to do so, just a slight inconvenience. 

 

The point is that if anyone actually believes that US citizens will have anywhere near the compliance of wearing masks, allowing cell phone tracking and other extended draconian mitigation efforts as say a Taiwan or South Korea, truly does not have a pulse of many of our citizens.  

 

The point was derailed though, that was just an added sidebar.  The main reason why contact tracing won't work here in the sense that it will be THE solution to crush the curve is for one main reason.  It's too late for that.  There are over 975,000 confirmed cases which probably means there are anywhere from about 6 to 20 million actual confirmed cases.  Each and every day at this stage of the cycle we are adding on top of that about 25k new confirmed cases daily which in actuality is probably around 250k real cases daily.   We don't know who the asymptomatic cases are.  Contact tracing on a wide scale only works either at the beginning of an outbreak before it gets out of control or after nearly all the cases have been flushed out so that you are working off of a low base line.  

 

Unless someone can convince me that we can get the confirmed cases on a daily basis to be nearly extinguished then color me skeptical.

[Kemp]

3 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

A cover up of scientific information. 

 

 

A set of detailed documents created by the nation's top disease investigators meant to give step-by-step advice to local leaders deciding when and how to reopen public places such as mass transit, day care centers and restaurants during the still-raging pandemic has been shelved by the Trump administration. 

The 17-page report by a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention team, titled “Guidance for Implementing the Opening Up America Again Framework,” was researched and written to help faith leaders, business owners, educators and state and local officials as they begin to reopen. 

It was supposed to be published last Friday, but agency scientists were told the guidance “would never see the light of day,” according to a CDC official. The official was not authorized to talk to reporters and spoke to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity.

 

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/health/trump-admin-shelves-cdc-guide-to-reopening-country-official-says/2387759/

 

Truth is Trump’s enemy.

[BuffaloHokie13]

54 minutes ago, Kemp said:

Name one time any Trump supporter here has once acknowledged Trump had lied, even though there are multiple confirmed lies by him in regards to the virus.

Has he done any single thing right since taking office? The constant negative spin on every action he takes is why you get the responses you do. Trump absolutely lies. The items that you tend to bring to the table typically are terrible examples of his lies because they are fact checking liberal interpretations of his statements rather than his actual statement and intent. Or they're partial statements rather than full quotes. Or they aren't lies at all, but you're applying your hindsight to statements made in real time. 

 

I think the first point is the crux of the issue though. You have one side of politics that quite frankly doesn't understand the other side, but they want to ascribe motive on their own.

 

Here's a couple links on it, if you're so inclined. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/21/democrats-republicans-political-beliefs-national-survey-poll

https://theindependentwhig.com/haidt-passages/haidt/conservatives-understand-liberals-better-than-liberals-understand-conservatives/

[Magox]

Can we just discuss the virus in this thread?    There are so many other threads for people to discuss Trump.     

[Kemp]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Has he done any single thing right since taking office? The constant negative spin on every action he takes is why you get the responses you do. Trump absolutely lies. The items that you tend to bring to the table typically are terrible examples of his lies because they are fact checking liberal interpretations of his statements rather than his actual statement and intent. Or they're partial statements rather than full quotes. Or they aren't lies at all, but you're applying your hindsight to statements made in real time. 

 

I think the first point is the crux of the issue though. You have one side of politics that quite frankly doesn't understand the other side, but they want to ascribe motive on their own.

 

Here's a couple links on it, if you're so inclined. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/21/democrats-republicans-political-beliefs-national-survey-poll

https://theindependentwhig.com/haidt-passages/haidt/conservatives-understand-liberals-better-than-liberals-understand-conservatives/

 

One more non-answer.

 

I am fine discussing anything if you can first address whether Trump lied or not as to what I posted. It's a simple solution to go on to other topics.

[LB3]

2 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Did Trump do what he claimed in the post?

 

The only possible answers are yes he did or no he didn't. 

"If you like your health care plan, you can keep it." Presidents make statements that don't bear out all the time. You just don't care when it's a D doing it.

 

Related question. How many fainting couches does President Trump make you go through weekly?