My Off-Season Primer: Position Group: RB

[MAJBobby]

***Disclaimer*** I will not put all Names not on the Bills in this thread as it would get to long, I will keep it to a couple names in each tier (as I see them).  As mentioned from @whatdroughtI will link th ones I already have done on the bottom of this post.  Hope you enjoy the read.   Only OL and WR left on Offense 

 

Currently on Roster: (Positional Spending 3 players 2.834M Cap ranked 23rd in league) - I like this finally not putting a ton of cap space into this position.

T.J. Yeldon (UFA 2021) – Saves 1.65M against cap if Cut

Devin Singletary (UFA 2023)

Christian Wade (signed futures deal)

 

Expiring Contracts

Frank Gore (37 yrs old) (2.0M AVV)

Senorise Perry (28 yrs old) (720K AVV)

 

Possible Trade TGTS:

None - Never trade for a RB in offseason

 

My Take:

 First, I will address the expiring contracts.  I think Gore retires, but even if he doesn’t, I do not want him back (which likely means another veteran RB signed staying with the McD and Beane mentality of a veteran in every room).  Also, Senorise Perry they very well could bring him back but that is not going to happen until after the draft IMO.  He is one of those post draft, 1 year no guaranteed signings.  The expiring contracts do not hurt the room in terms of production (might help it meaning Gore doesn’t get his token touches) but what it does hurt is the Veteran Presence in the room.  I guess Beane and McD could look at Yeldon and see if he can bring that presence, but I think they will look for one.  I would rather they not as this room IMO doesn’t need it, they are RBs after all. 

 

Lets look at Singletary, first his numbers 151 Attempts, 12.6 per game 775 yards 5.1 ypc, 2TDs, 24.5% 1st down percentage, 7 20+ runs, 4 fumbles (1 lost), 41tgts, 29 Rec, 194 yards, 2 TDs, 70.7% catch rate.  Now before I continue I just want to do one thing on rushing only…..

 

Josh Jacobs 242 attempts, 1,150 yards 18.6 attempts a game.  Let’s see what Motor looks like with those attempt numbers

Motor 242 attempts 1,234 yards. 

 

Ok now that that is over let me get back to Motor.  What I like about him, I knew he had some good vision that is what was talked about since he was drafted.  However, I would like to say his vision is much better than anticipated.  I am talking Freddie Jackson type vision in his rookie year.  What I didn’t know about him is how powerful he is.  Yes, some of the broken tackles can be attributed to his low center of gravity, but man I don’t remember seeing a little back move the pile like he does, I think I can count on two hands the number of times I saw the first tackler in bring him down.  That is why I would get infuriated when Daboll and McD would force Gore in on short yardage. 

 

Where he does need to improve though is pass pro (cheap copout I know all rookies need to improve here) but it is true, he got better as the year went on, but still an issue.  4 Fumbles on 151 attempts is a high as well, so I would like for him to improve that aspect of his game as well, though near the end of the season I did see him cover the ball before taking contact, and my notes have 3 of those fumbles coming when he was fighting for yards. 

 

But to the rest of the room the talent is lacking IMO.  I know there will be people here coming pounding the table for Wade, for me it is a good story but right now that is all it is.  He had a TON to learn but do look forward to seeing if he did at camp. 

 

My UFA listing, I am about to show is going to be based on replacing Gore.  I don’t like spending big UFA money on RBs, when they can be so easily found in the draft very year.  That is my mindset on this specific position group in terms of UFA Acquisitions.

  

UFAs Possible

Tier 1

Carlos Hyde (value around 3M) – This IMO is who I would like if we are looking to replace Gore’s Veteran Presence.

Lamar Miller

Jordon Howard (might have someone overpay for him to start)

 

Tier 2

Adrian Peterson

LSean McCoy

Bilal Powell

 

Draft

Tier 1 (1st and 2nd round grades)

Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin)

J.K Dobbins (Ohio State)

D’Andre Swift (Georgia)

Travis Etienne (Clemson)

 

Tier 2 (3rd-5th round)

Chuba Hubbard (OK ST)

Cam Akers (FL ST)

Najee Harris (Alabama)

Clyd Edwards Helaire (LSU)

Zack Moss (UTAH)

Lamical Perine (Florida)

 

Tier 3 (6th – Priority UFA)

Eno Benjamin (AZ ST)

A.J Dillon (BC)

Ke’Shawn Vaughn (Vandy)

Trey Sermon (OK)

Michal Warren II (Cincy)

Tony Jones Jr (ND)

 

Final thinking in this Position group for me would be:

 

I would not go into UFA and get a Veteran for presence I think Yeldon will be fine and at this point I am thinking Singletary has picked Gore’s Brain.  Here is a thought, bring Gore back as a coaching intern if he retires.  Now that said I am not going to add to this room via UFA, So I will go into the draft.  The pick I am targeting on using for the RB would be one of the 5ths, (don’t need to go earlier as I think Singletary has shown he can be a RB1).  So that puts me in Tier 2.  Obviously if one of the top 4 drop than I would take one at 150. If not the two I would look at that would bring a different dimension in terms of Motor, but now hurt what the offense would want to do is Najee Harris and Zach Moss would be my TGTs at 150.

 

The organizational depth here is a little lacking, but that would be addressed with the draft.  You take one RB later and we are fine.  Singletary has shown he can carry the RB1 and the position should flow through him.   

 

Past Writeups

Quarterback

Tight Ends

Specialists

Edited January 8, 2020 by MAJBobby

[NewEra]

I’d try and offer Derrick Henry 2 years 30 mill all gtd.  I don’t see anyone else giving him more than that and I don’t see us spending to the cap this year or next.  So why not overpay a true difference maker that brings something to the table no other RB brings.  Keep that 3rd rd draft pick and use it on OL, DL, WR, CB or TE

 

i normally not like spending big on a RB either.  Our best chance to win a SB is next year imo.  Go for it

[MAJBobby]

Just now, NewEra said:

I’d try and offer Derrick Henry 2 years 30 mill all gtd.  I don’t see anyone else giving him more than that and I don’t see us spending to the cap this year or next.  So why not overpay a true difference maker that brings something to the table no other RB brings.  Keep that 3rd rd draft pick and use it on OL, DL, WR, CB or TE

 

i normally not like spending big on a RB either.  Our best chance to win a SB is next year imo.  Go for it

I guess I could go that way, it just goes against every fiber of my being to buy a RB.  We do that and Henry is the RB1 and takes 80-90% of the carries.  And to clarify I am not using our 3rd,  I would use 150 (or one of our 5ths) that puts us in the of Najee or Moss by my current gradings

[Rc2catch]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’d try and offer Derrick Henry 2 years 30 mill all gtd.  I don’t see anyone else giving him more than that and I don’t see us spending to the cap this year or next.  So why not overpay a true difference maker that brings something to the table no other RB brings.  Keep that 3rd rd draft pick and use it on OL, DL, WR, CB or TE

 

i normally not like spending big on a RB either.  Our best chance to win a SB is next year imo.  Go for it

I would pay him whatever he wants lol. As long as they can cut bait after 2-3 years no big deal. There’s not another player in the league capable of what he is. Him and motor and Allen together could set rushing records. 
I can’t see anyway Tennessee ever lets him leave after securing the rushing title and what he did to the Pats. Their fans would riot he’s the face of the franchise. 

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I guess I could go that way, it just goes against every fiber of my being to buy a RB.  We do that and Henry is the RB1 and takes 80-90% of the carries.  And to clarify I am not using our 3rd,  I would use 150 (or one of our 5ths) that puts us in the of Najee or Moss by my current gradings

Very wishful thinking getting Najee in rd 5 but you could be right.

[atlbillsfan1975]

4 hours ago, NewEra said:

I’d try and offer Derrick Henry 2 years 30 mill all gtd.  I don’t see anyone else giving him more than that and I don’t see us spending to the cap this year or next.  So why not overpay a true difference maker that brings something to the table no other RB brings.  Keep that 3rd rd draft pick and use it on OL, DL, WR, CB or TE

 

i normally not like spending big on a RB either.  Our best chance to win a SB is next year imo.  Go for it

Pass on high priced Henry.
It appears Beane can find a very good back in the third round. I think he can do it again. And save 14.5 million a year and put it towards another player or players at a higher value position. DE, CB, WR, and OL. 
we need a complimentary back to go with Singletary from the draft. One inexpensive vet like another Tenn player, Dion Lewis.

Edited January 8, 2020 by atlbillsfan1975

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Very wishful thinking getting Najee in rd 5 but you could be right.

Might need to be a 4th as I refine my grades but right now my early grades have him at 161 overall. That could be my downgrading the position Bias as well.  

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Might need to be a 4th as I refine my grades but right now my early grades have him at 161 overall. That could be my downgrading the position Bias as well.  

Thanks for the write ups.  I enjoy them

5 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Pass on high priced Henry.
It appears Beane can find a very good back in the third round. I think he can do it again. And save 14.5 million a year and put it towards another player or players at a higher value position. DE, CB, WR, and OL. 
we need a complimentary back to go with Singletary from the draft. One in expensive vet like another Tenn player, Dion Lewis.

I’m sure we can make it work either with Henry or a low priced option.  Our offense needs a BIG boost.  Henry is BIG and would really help this team immensely, but I understand why you wouldn’t want to spend on him.  I usually feel the same.  Henry is different right now

[Luka]

AJ Dillon would be my draft choice. 1,600 yards and 5.3 YPC at 6 foot and 245? Sign me up. I think the need for a veteran presence is a little overstated, it was nice to have Gore I guess, but I think McDermott really needs to address that kind of thing in his coaching staff to maximize talent on the roster for gameday. Can't keep giving up roster spots to keep a veteran. Let Singletary become the leader in that room.

[mannc]

6 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Pass on high priced Henry.
It appears Beane can find a very good back in the third round. I think he can do it again. And save 14.5 million a year and put it towards another player or players at a higher value position. DE, CB, WR, and OL. 
we need a complimentary back to go with Singletary from the draft. One in expensive vet like another Tenn player, Dion Lewis.

Yep.  As good as Henry is right now, I guaranty that in another year or two, he will be banged up and overpaid, like almost every running back who gets a fat second contract.  Pass.

26 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’d try and offer Derrick Henry 2 years 30 mill all gtd.  I don’t see anyone else giving him more than that and I don’t see us spending to the cap this year or next.  So why not overpay a true difference maker that brings something to the table no other RB brings.  Keep that 3rd rd draft pick and use it on OL, DL, WR, CB or TE

 

i normally not like spending big on a RB either.  Our best chance to win a SB is next year imo.  Go for it

Don't you think it's unrealistic to think you can get Henry on a two-year deal?  He's a prototype back and led the league in rushing over the past two years.  He'll want (and probably get) a Zeke Elliott type deal.   

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, Luka said:

AJ Dillon would be my draft choice. 1,600 yards and 5.3 YPC at 6 foot and 245? Sign me up. I think the need for a veteran presence is a little overstated, it was nice to have Gore I guess, but I think McDermott really needs to address that kind of thing in his coaching staff to maximize talent on the roster for gameday. Can't keep giving up roster spots to keep a veteran. Let Singletary become the leader in that room.

I hear you on the Vet in the room thing.  IMO there are certain position groups that don't need it.  And RB is at the top of those groups.  it is the easiest position to play in football.

 

And Dillon is a good choice too that would allow for using one of our  6ths at this point 

Edited January 8, 2020 by MAJBobby

[The_Ripster]

11 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Pass on high priced Henry.
It appears Beane can find a very good back in the third round. I think he can do it again. And save 14.5 million a year and put it towards another player or players at a higher value position. DE, CB, WR, and OL. 
we need a complimentary back to go with Singletary from the draft. One in expensive vet like another Tenn player, Dion Lewis.

Is dion lewis available?

[SCBills]

If we don't make any OL changes, and shore up the defense in FA with a pass rusher and re-signings, i'd love to go:

 

RD1 WR

RD2 WR

RD2 RB (trade up)

[MAJBobby]

Just now, The_Ripster said:

Is dion lewis available?

He is not on the current UFA list

[frogger]

If I’m drafting I get two.  Najee Harris in the 4th and AJ Dillon in the 5th, Dillon isn’t a bad blocker and could you imagine seeing a backfield with Allen, Harris, Dillon and Singletary all in it at once in a wishbone formation?

[NewEra]

28 minutes ago, mannc said:

Yep.  As good as Henry is right now, I guaranty that in another year or two, he will be banged up and overpaid, like almost every running back who gets a fat second contract.  Pass.

Don't you think it's unrealistic to think you can get Henry on a two-year deal?  He's a prototype back and led the league in rushing over the past two years.  He'll want (and probably get) a Zeke Elliott type deal.   

I just researched zekes contract.  I didn’t know it was 50 mill gtd. Gd.  Looks like we’d have to offer 2 years 40 mill gtd to have a chance.  We have 90+ this year. No chance we spend to cap, front load Henry’s contract so we take the brunt this season.  

That being said, again, I totally understand why those wouldn’t want to commit that kind of cash to a rb.

 

i just think Henry is the player that can have the biggest impact on our offense and help us win a super bowl this year or next.  Running back or not, he’s impactful.  There isn’t a rb that you will draft that can do what he does.  

 

you can pretend that he’s going to get hurt, but that’s just make believe at this point.  He turned 26 6 days ago.

Edited January 8, 2020 by NewEra

[MJS]

I'd want Kenyon Drake, Matt Breida, or Chris Thompson.

[offyourocker]

2 minutes ago, frogger said:

If I’m drafting I get two.  Najee Harris in the 4th and AJ Dillon in the 5th, Dillon isn’t a bad blocker and could you imagine seeing a backfield with Allen, Harris, Dillon and Singletary all in it at once in a wishbone formation?

no because that will never happen

[atlbillsfan1975]

36 minutes ago, mannc said:

Yep.  As good as Henry is right now, I guaranty that in another year or two, he will be banged up and overpaid, like almost every running back who gets a fat second contract.  Pass.

Don't you think it's unrealistic to think you can get Henry on a two-year deal?  He's a prototype back and led the league in rushing over the past two years.  He'll want (and probably get) a Zeke Elliott type deal.   

Agreed. Even more so with a back who runs with Henry’s style. Big bruising back. He does have great speed too, I’ve watched him play since college. 

[MAJBobby]

40 minutes ago, mannc said:

Yep.  As good as Henry is right now, I guaranty that in another year or two, he will be banged up and overpaid, like almost every running back who gets a fat second contract.  Pass.

Don't you think it's unrealistic to think you can get Henry on a two-year deal?  He's a prototype back and led the league in rushing over the past two years.  He'll want (and probably get) a Zeke Elliott type deal.   

And like Zeke and Gurley will be immediately overpaid the minute it is signed. 

13 minutes ago, frogger said:

If I’m drafting I get two.  Najee Harris in the 4th and AJ Dillon in the 5th, Dillon isn’t a bad blocker and could you imagine seeing a backfield with Allen, Harris, Dillon and Singletary all in it at once in a wishbone formation?

no. And wouldn’t want that. 

14 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I just researched zekes contract.  I didn’t know it was 50 mill gtd. Gd.  Looks like we’d have to offer 2 years 40 mill gtd to have a chance.  We have 90+ this year. No chance we spend to cap, front load Henry’s contract so we take the brunt this season.  

That being said, again, I totally understand why those wouldn’t want to commit that kind of cash to a rb.

 

i just think Henry is the player that can have the biggest impact on our offense and help us win a super bowl this year or next.  Running back or not, he’s impactful.  There isn’t a rb that you will draft that can do what he does.  

 

you can pretend that he’s going to get hurt, but that’s just make believe at this point.  He turned 26 6 days ago.

I think a top end TE like Hooper or Henry would be smarter use of the money. And helps the offense as a whole A lot More than a RB

[DuckyBoys]

I'd try and sign Kareem Hunt  Whatever they decide its imperative they add a 2nd nfl starter quality RB

[whatdrought]

Random UFA to think about as just another piece of the puzzle: Matt Breida. He brings a one cut, speed element that differs from Motor. him plus someone like AJ Dillon and we'd have a pretty diverse group. 

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Random UFA to think about as just another piece of the puzzle: Matt Breida. He brings a one cut, speed element that differs from Motor. him plus someone like AJ Dillon and we'd have a pretty diverse group. 

Would need to see contract. Like him. Seems oft injured so might fit in my budget for a UFA RB. 5M AVV is MAX I go. 
 

again I also know I place LOW value on this position. I won’t spend on a back and I won’t draft a back in rounds 1 or 2. Ever 

Edited January 8, 2020 by MAJBobby

[whatdrought]

4 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Would need to see contract. Like him. Seems oft injured so might fit in my budget for a UFA RB. 5M AVV is MAX I go. 
 

again I also know I place LOW value on this position. I won’t spend on a back and I won’t draft a back in rounds 1 or 2. Ever 

 

I would think it would have to be quite a low contract. Between his injury history, and the fact that Shanahan could make me look like a stud RB in that offense, I can't imagine his value is very high. 

[NewEra]

16 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

And like Zeke and Gurley will be immediately overpaid the minute it is signed. 

no. And wouldn’t want that. 

I think a top end TE like Hooper or Henry would be smarter use of the money. And helps the offense as a whole A lot More than a RB

Could be the case.  Other than having more reliable hands, Hooper and Henry don’t offer much more than Knox imo.  More, sure.  Not like the difference between Henry and any other RB we’ll be adding.  I think JA will benefit better from having a dominant running game rather than one additional target.  Henry will give us a dominant run game if we continue to upgrade the OL, as we should be doing.

[MAJBobby]

8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Could be the case.  Other than having more reliable hands, Hooper and Henry don’t offer much more than Knox imo.  More, sure.  Not like the difference between Henry and any other RB we’ll be adding.  I think JA will benefit better from having a dominant running game rather than one additional target.  Henry will give us a dominant run game if we continue to upgrade the OL, as we should be doing.

knox and Hooper 

or

Knox and Henry 

 

are a Major upgrade over Knox and Kroft or Knox and Smith. 
 

young QBs best friend legit talent at TE.  
 

also the TE also helps the WRs.

 

How does on cover a Hooper, Knox, Brown and Beasley with Singletary as lone back. 
 

do they do nickel (Matchup issues all over) 

 

but I get your point. Don’t wanna turn it into a TE vs RB thread. 

Edited January 8, 2020 by MAJBobby

[NewEra]

31 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

knox and Hooper 

or

Knox and Henry 

 

are a Major upgrade over Knox and Kroft or Knox and Smith. 
 

young QBs best friend legit talent at TE.  
 

also the TE also helps the WRs.

 

How does on cover a Hooper, Knox, Brown and Beasley with Singletary as lone back. 
 

do they do nickel (Matchup issues all over) 

 

but I get your point. Don’t wanna turn it into a TE vs RB thread. 

We differ in regards to what is “josh allens best friend for the next two seasons”.  Ryan tannehill went from a guy no one wanted to beating tom brady in a playoff game in fox pro with a lesser defense than ours.  Better weapons sure, but what did those weapons do that game?  You know what Derrick Henry did.

[The_Ripster]

1 hour ago, frogger said:

If I’m drafting I get two.  Najee Harris in the 4th and AJ Dillon in the 5th, Dillon isn’t a bad blocker and could you imagine seeing a backfield with Allen, Harris, Dillon and Singletary all in it at once in a wishbone formation?

that would be so crazy, touchdown city. they would eat everybody's lunch fr

[papazoid]

keep singletary & wade

 

after that, clean house

[Dopey]

I ran a few simulations on fanspeak and my favorite results had Cam Akers in the 4th and Dillon with 1 of our 5th. FSU has had such a bad oline the last 3 yrs, but Akers still produced. When i say bad, think Bill line last year. If Akers can do what he did behind that line, he should do well behind a competent line like ours. That has us with Devin, Cam and Dillon. All 3 i n rookie deals too. Just my take.

[MAJBobby]

6 minutes ago, Dopey said:

I ran a few simulations on fanspeak and my favorite results had Cam Akers in the 4th and Dillon with 1 of our 5th. FSU has had such a bad oline the last 3 yrs, but Akers still produced. When i say bad, think Bill line last year. If Akers can do what he did behind that line, he should do well behind a competent line like ours. That has us with Devin, Cam and Dillon. All 3 i n rookie deals too. Just my take.

I wouldn’t be opposed to 2 later picks at RB and clean house in the room except for the three youngsters. I just am not thinking that is realistic with the mindset of Beane and McD. I would like it though. Specially if one of Dillon or Akers play ST. 

[TheFunPolice]

Is there a Henry clone in this year's draft that we could get in the 3rd round or later?

 

I'd love to see Henry (or a clone) paired with Singletary. 

 

It never felt this year like the Bills could consistently line up and impose their will. I think it's because as good as Singletary is, once he needed a breather we couldn't run the ball or it was a waste of a play. 

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Might need to be a 4th as I refine my grades but right now my early grades have him at 161 overall. That could be my downgrading the position Bias as well.  

You are going to see Najee Harris move up in this draft. This kid has ridiculous stats. Averaged over 6 yards per carry during his 3 years. Ran right over Auburn, LSU and Michigan. It may take a late 3rd to get him but he's my target after research. Get the best WR @ 22 (Shenault/Higgins) or hope Jefferson falls to 2nd round?

Najee is the real deal and would be a perfect compliment to Singletary. 

[jrober38]

I don't think the Bills will do anything meaningful at RB.

 

Singletary is the bell cow, Yeldon moves into Gores role and they fill out the roster with a low cost vet. 

[njbuff]

Remember, the Bills were in on a Drake trade, but declined, much the same as Clowney.

 

The Bills can go a million ways to get RB2 this offseason..................... and a very effective one for sure.

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

Great post @MAJBobby, appreciate all the detail and hard work on your part.

 

Agree with all of your takes except for the fact that I believe Moss and Harris won't last until the 5th round. I know the position is devalued (and I am completely against paying a UFA like Henry top dollar or drafting an RB in the 1st round), but I'd spend our late 3rd or trade up in the 4th to get Moss, Harris, or Edwards-Helaire if that's what it took. 

 

Getting an upgrade at RB2 would be huge for this offense and the middle of the draft seems like the best way to do this. Go Bills!

[Luka]

3 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

I hear you on the Vet in the room thing.  IMO there are certain position groups that don't need it.  And RB is at the top of those groups.  it is the easiest position to play in football.

 

And Dillon is a good choice too that would allow for using one of our  6ths at this point 

 

Yep would cost very little and would add some flexibility and physicality to the offense. I guess the deciding factor would be his special teams play.

[Buffalo Junction]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

I wouldn’t be opposed to 2 later picks at RB and clean house in the room except for the three youngsters. I just am not thinking that is realistic with the mindset of Beane and McD. I would like it though. Specially if one of Dillon or Akers play ST. 

I’ve been a fan of this kid for a while. I’d be perfectly content with adding him in the lay 4th or 5th. 5’11, 220 lbs and can catch. Added bonus.... watch him carry Jamal Adams 10 yards around the 2:10 mark.

 

 

Edited January 8, 2020 by Buffalo Junction

[KD in CA]

4 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Tier 2

Adrian Peterson

LSean McCoy

Bilal Powell

 

Those can't possibly be the best Tier 2 running backs in FA.   There are always a million FA RBs....shouldn't be that hard to find one and add a mid-round draft pick.

 

Count me against the big money D Henry fantasy.  Rather spend those dollars on a pass rusher, WR or CB.

[MAJBobby]

1 hour ago, KD in CA said:

 

Those can't possibly be the best Tier 2 running backs in FA.   There are always a million FA RBs....shouldn't be that hard to find one and add a mid-round draft pick.

 

Count me against the big money D Henry fantasy.  Rather spend those dollars on a pass rusher, WR or CB.

Those are the TIer two that would be in the Dollar Range I believe. Hence my disclaimer. If I added everyone all the names would make the post way to long