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Barnwell: All the RBs who could get paid this offseason & why recent extensions have been disasters


DCOrange

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https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28121690/all-nfl-running-backs-get-paid-2020-why-recent-deals-look-disasters

 

As always, a good read from Barnwell on a topic that definitely has not at all been beaten to death: the value of RBs.

 

TLDR:

 

Melvin Gordon: franchise tag, especially if the Chargers let Rivers walk.

Derrick Henry: re-signed due to Titans valuing him more than other teams would.

Kenyan Drake: likely to hit free agency and sign as the lesser role in a timeshare

Jordan Howard: likely to hit free agency and sign a very small deal (he suggests 1 year $2 million)

Christian McCaffrey: long-term extension, maybe highest paid RB in the league

Leonard Fournette: Jags pick up his 5th year option, though Barnwell thinks they should be very hesitant about it

Dalvin Cook: likely to be re-signed, though Barnwell thinks they should let him walk

Alvin Kamara: long-term extension around 4 years $60 million

Marlon Mack: long-term extension around 4 years $30 million

Aaron Jones: Potential for another Gordon/LeVeon type of situation

James Connor: should let him play out his contract and re-evaluate

Chris Carson: Let him play out his contract

Joe Mixon: Let him play out his contract before likely re-signing him

Tarik Cohen: -shrugs-

Kareem Hunt, Austin Ekeler, and Matt Breida: likely re-signed to short-term deals

Devonta Freeman, Dion Lewis, and Jerick McKinnon: likely cap casualties in the offseason

 

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Singletary will see the most touches next year. Look for Beane to draft a guy in rounds 4-6 with one of the multiple picks the Bills have in each of those rounds.

save the FA money to fix other positions. 
find a cheap vet running back if needed like a Dion Lewis. 

Edited by atlbillsfan1975
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2 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

I wouldn’t hate having Derrick Henry or Jordan Howard as a power complement to Motor.

I think Henry will be expensive and will stay in Tennessee. Howard could be a nice option.

I wouldn’t count out Gore coming back.

 

i also wouldn’t count out signing a veteran who’s a receiving type and draft a pounder late in the draft (AJ Dillon Round 5?) 

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As always, this says to me in huge flashing letters DON'T DRAFT RBS IN THE FIRST ROUND (also don't spent big $$ in FA either)

 

Think about Fournette- he's a good back. And sure the Jags were still in the end stages of deciding what to do about Bortles. But they took Fournette with the FOURTH OVERALL PICK and passed on both Watson and Mahomes in the process and the kicker is- he's not even a top 5 running back IN HIS OWN DRAFT CLASS

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1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

......Neon Deon made an interesting comment on NFLN about players getting paid/extended.. not about RB but about Saints WR Michael Thomas.....said, "many guys coast after getting paid but Thomas has taken it to another level....he's gone the other way"......

 

Thomas has been a beast.  Could be the NFL MVP, if that ever went to a WR.  Dominates game in and out.  

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15 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

Thomas has been a beast.  Could be the NFL MVP, if that ever went to a WR.  Dominates game in and out.  

It will probably never happen for a WR to be MVP, because usually the QB gets the credit for a productive WR. But IF it ever could happen, this would be the year, because Thomas has split time with QB's since Brees missed a bunch of games. Can't give the QB the credit for his production this year.

 

BUT, it will never happen.

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If I were a GM, I'd never sign a RB to a big contract. I'd draft them in or after the 4th round only. And when their rookie contract was up, draft another late (or even UDFA).

 

Keep 2-3 on the team, all staggered by a year.

 

You can find hungry, driven, hard-running guys to tote the rock almost anywhere.

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3 hours ago, DCOrange said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28121690/all-nfl-running-backs-get-paid-2020-why-recent-deals-look-disasters

 

As always, a good read from Barnwell on a topic that definitely has not at all been beaten to death: the value of RBs.

 

TLDR:

 

 

Kenyan Drake: likely to hit free agency and sign as the lesser role in a timeshare

 

I think he ends up signing with the Cards to be their feature back.  Fully expect them to try and trade Johnson and his contract for a low round pick.

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1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

I think he ends up signing with the Cards to be their feature back.  Fully expect them to try and trade Johnson and his contract for a low round pick.

Will definitely be interesting to see how it plays out. Barnwell's theory is that they won't be able to find a taker for Johnson and they like Edmonds enough and are already paying Johnson a ton so they'll just roll with those two and maybe a draft prospect.

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4 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

Interesting.  Drake, Cohen, Ekeler Freeman and Lewis would all make a nice compliment to Singletary, especially at the right price.

 

Agreed.  They should all be relatively cheap too.  2nd tier RBs ended up with Annual Average values below 3 mil and total guarantee's of about 3.  Figure with some inflation - and a lot more talent.  4? per year maybe less? 

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4 hours ago, Circlethewagon8404 said:

I have a feeling that Gore might stick around with us for one more year.

Oh heck no!!

He's ready for the glue factory. Rather have AP and Motor. AP showed he still has strength and speed with a less than stellar O line. Gore? Not so much. We can acquire a better option to compliment Devin. APs checkered past might rub some the wrong way but he's clearly the better back at this stage.

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The Bills are pretty set at RB with Singletary being the all around back and Yeldon being a backup receiving back. They just need to replace Gore as a between the tackles runner who can absorb 25-35% of the snaps in the short yardage and early down situations. That will either come with a lower mid-level free agency decision (probably something in the range of 3-4 million) or in the mid rounds of the draft. 

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