Cover 1: The Path to the #1 Defense

[YoloinOhio]

https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-number-one-defense/

Each year, teams set goals for themselves, and Leslie Frazier’s unit’s primary goal in 2018 was to finish as a top-five defensive unit. In his second season as defensive coordinator, Frazier’s defense finished second overall, allowing a stingy 294.1 yards per game. The defense was a mere 1.1 yards/game away from finishing number one overall, and that disappointed many on the defense, including their starting safety. Micah Hyde told BuffaloBills.com that he was “disappointed about that, about number two. Number two is good, but we wanted to finish number one.”

But considering how far they have come and the heights they could reach, Hyde and his teammates may actually have a shot to take the belt for the top defense in 2019. In order to achieve that goal, let’s take a look at how far the defense has come since Frazier took over and what they could improve upon to dethrone the Ravens.

[BADOLBILZ]

26 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-number-one-defense/

 

 

 

 

The Bills defense biggest obstacle to leading the NFL in least yards per game may actually be their own offense not turning the ball over 27 times again and their special teams potentially improving.

 

If those improvements happen they won't lead the NFL in starting field position allowed like they did last year...........meaning more yards to give up between them and the end zone.

 

More QB sacks, better LB coverage and better red zone D.........as mentioned by Cover 1........will make them ACTUALLY be more like their yardage stats imply though.

 

Edited May 9, 2019 by BADOLBILZ

[ctk232]

27 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-number-one-defense/

 

 

Thanks, Yolo!

 

I love the upside Oliver gives our D heading into the next year. And for those thinking our Defense was set sitting at #2, you wouldn't be entirely wrong, but we were still left wanting more along the DL in terms of consistent pass rush and run stoppage. Investing in an already successful defense, regardless of whether they finish first in the league this next year, can only help Allen take the next step in his development. Especially going into his sophomore year - we've set him up pretty well in terms of passing options, and he's had a year to get a feel for the league. But having a stout defense that can keep the score close can only benefit Allen in keeping the pressure off of him, and keep him from reverting to type and make forced errors trying to lessen scoring disparities. 

 

My only hope in regards to Oliver, specifically for this next year, would be to keep it as simple as possible in terms of his role within the defense. Like the article mentions, let him simply create pressure and not have to "read" too much in his first year. Cut him loose, let him develop confidence maximizing what he does best, and slowly begin to integrate him into the overall scheme. I think we see much more impact from an Oliver that isn't asked to do too much in his first year, than we would be from piling on him. I get the argument to this is Edmunds and literally dumping the entire defensive scheme on him in his first year, but I would give Oliver at least his rookie season to do what he does best, and begin to fit that into the DL scheme. 

Edited May 9, 2019 by ctk232

[Stank_Nasty]

15 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The Bills defense biggest obstacle to leading the NFL in least yards per game may actually be their own offense not turning the ball over 27 times again and their special teams potentially improving.

 

If those improvements happen they won't lead the NFL in starting field position allowed like they did last year...........meaning more yards to give up between them and the end zone.

 

More QB sacks, better LB coverage and better red zone D.........as mentioned by Cover 1........will make them ACTUALLY be more like their yardage stats imply though.

 

one could easily argue that the excessive turnovers led to the opponent having more chances for more yds..... are we really gonna pretend large amounts of TO's actually HELP the d's yardage totals? that's just sorta lame.

 

IMO, a better pass rush fixes most of the problems the d had last year and would solidify them as a top 5 unit. in theory olivers inside push should help, not only with the lack of interior rush from last year, but it should also improve the edge rush as I doubt qb's will be able to slide up into the pocket to avoid it as easily as they have in the past.

Edited May 9, 2019 by Stank_Nasty

[Forward Progress]

The best way to improve the defense is by keeping the offense on the field.  We've made a lot of improvements on that side of the ball this offseason.

[Bray Wyatt]

7 minutes ago, Forward Progress said:

The best way to improve the defense is by keeping the offense on the field.  We've made a lot of improvements on that side of the ball this offseason.

 

Agreed, especially if we can put up some points and get a lead, it would play into the strength of our D forcing the opposition to pass more

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Yards is the dumbest measure of a defense. I'd be quite happy top 5 in +/- turnover ratio and somewhere between 15 and 10 in sacks. I don't think we have the pass rushers to be a top 10 sack team. I don't care about yards given up.

Same goes for Allen. I don't care how many 300 yard games he has. I care about TD, INT, and YPA.

[Peace Frog]

The #1 stat for a defense, IMHO, is points allowed per game.

Edited May 9, 2019 by Peace Frog

[GG]

23 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

one could easily argue that the excessive turnovers led to the opponent having more chances for more yds..... are we really gonna pretend large amounts of TO's actually HELP the d's yardage totals? that's just sorta lame.

 

 

I think the point is that with turnovers, the opposing team has less yards to go to score.  That would make sense in isolation.  But you also have to look at yds/play and scoring.

 

Bills were #2 in yards, #3 in yds/play, but middle of the pack in points per game.  The Bills' D also faced the worst average drive start in the league and one of the worst red zone play.

 

Thus, the numbers bear out BADOL's theory.    Bills' D should get statistically worse in 2019, but should be better where it really matters in stopping the opponent.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

The #1 stat for a defense, IMHO, is points allowed per game.

Seems logical but I wonder if that is actually true.  First you have to subtract points given up by offense on turnovers and special teams. And just like yards, if you get a lead early the defense may give up garbage yards and points. And since it is an average, it doesn't take into account blowout losses like the Bills have had followed by low scoring games. Giving up 32 one week and 10 the next is not the same as giving up 21 in both games. My guess is statistically you have a better chance of going 2-0 giving up 21 points in each game than 32 in one and 10 in the next. 

[Mr. WEO]

54 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The Bills defense biggest obstacle to leading the NFL in least yards per game may actually be their own offense not turning the ball over 27 times again and their special teams potentially improving.

 

If those improvements happen they won't lead the NFL in starting field position allowed like they did last year...........meaning more yards to give up between them and the end zone.

 

More QB sacks, better LB coverage and better red zone D.........as mentioned by Cover 1........will make them ACTUALLY be more like their yardage stats imply though.

 

 

 

Or maybe some run defense...

[ctk232]

35 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Yards is the dumbest measure of a defense. I'd be quite happy top 5 in +/- turnover ratio and somewhere between 15 and 10 in sacks. I don't think we have the pass rushers to be a top 10 sack team. I don't care about yards given up.

Same goes for Allen. I don't care how many 300 yard games he has. I care about TD, INT, and YPA.

 

30 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

The #1 stat for a defense, IMHO, is points allowed per game.

It blows my mind how everyone prioritizes yards allowed as if that is a catch all marker of a defense. Is it helpful in assessing performance? Sure, but the scoreboard doesn't reflect yards gained, it reflects points - and on the most basic of levels, it's a defense's literal job to prevent the other team from scoring. In my mind, whichever defense does this the best, regardless of yards allowed, is the top defense in the league. 

[BADOLBILZ]

40 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

one could easily argue that the excessive turnovers led to the opponent having more chances for more yds..... are we really gonna pretend large amounts of TO's actually HELP the d's yardage totals? that's just sorta lame.

 

IMO, a better pass rush fixes most of the problems the d had last year and would solidify them as a top 5 unit. in theory olivers inside push should help, not only with the lack of interior rush from last year, but it should also improve the edge rush as I doubt qb's will be able to slide up into the pocket to avoid it as easily as they have in the past.

 

 

Posessions alternate, regardless of how many turnovers you get or give.

 

So you could get 7 turnovers,  doesn't mean you will end up with any more or less posessions than your opponent.

 

The only deciding factor on possession count is the way each half ends.   That's it, that's the math.

 

Now back to the yardage discussion.........the amount of posessions per team, per game is 12 on average. 

 

And yeah.........if you cough up the ball at your own 20 and the other team scores a TD........remember the Bills were one of THE WORST defenses in the redzone.........then you can both allow an easy TD but also keep your team on pace to lead the league in least yards allowed.  

 

In essence this is what happened a lot with the Bills.    Their special teams were terrible and they were among worst at turning the ball over offensively.   As such the defense had to defend a lot of short fields and were skewered in the red zone due to a lack of pass and run pressure and blown out many times.    But the yardage stats were actually helped by allowing opponents to have the best starting field position in the NFL.

[Stank_Nasty]

6 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Posessions alternate, regardless of how many turnovers you get or give.

 

So you could get 7 turnovers,  doesn't mean you will end up with any more or less posessions than your opponent.

 

The only deciding factor on possession count is the way each half ends.   That's it, that's the math.

 

Now back to the yardage discussion.........the amount of posessions per team, per game is 12 on average. 

 

And yeah.........if you cough up the ball at your own 20 and the other team scores a TD........remember the Bills were one of THE WORST defenses in the redzone.........then you can both allow an easy TD but also keep your team on pace to lead the league in least yards allowed.  

 

In essence this is what happened a lot with the Bills.    Their special teams were terrible and they were among worst at turning the ball over offensively.   As such the defense had to defend a lot of short fields and were skewered in the red zone due to a lack of pass and run pressure and blown out many times.    But the yardage stats were actually helped by allowing opponents to have the best starting field position in the NFL.

you don't get it I guess. that's fine. I'm not gonna go much further with it. common sense says that if your team can hold onto the ball for longer amounts of time and more sustained drives then your defense doesn't have to deal with as many possessions. this is really simple.... its not hard man. you just don't wanna acknowledge it.

 

its fine. you've had an odd crusade against the defense for months now. advanced stats like DVOA also rank them high. but its your thing. let'r rip.

Edited May 9, 2019 by Stank_Nasty

[Warcodered]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Posessions alternate, regardless of how many turnovers you get or give.

 

So you could get 7 turnovers,  doesn't mean you will end up with any more or less posessions than your opponent.

 

The only deciding factor on possession count is the way each half ends.   That's it, that's the math.

 

Now back to the yardage discussion.........the amount of posessions per team, per game is 12 on average. 

 

And yeah.........if you cough up the ball at your own 20 and the other team scores a TD........remember the Bills were one of THE WORST defenses in the redzone.........then you can both allow an easy TD but also keep your team on pace to lead the league in least yards allowed.  

 

In essence this is what happened a lot with the Bills.    Their special teams were terrible and they were among worst at turning the ball over offensively.   As such the defense had to defend a lot of short fields and were skewered in the red zone due to a lack of pass and run pressure and blown out many times.    But the yardage stats were actually helped by allowing opponents to have the best starting field position in the NFL.

Right but if your Offense sucks and goes 3 and out or turns it over some other way that's ending one of the offenses possessions as useless while giving the other team an additional opportunity.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

15 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

 

It blows my mind how everyone prioritizes yards allowed as if that is a catch all marker of a defense. Is it helpful in assessing performance? Sure, but the scoreboard doesn't reflect yards gained, it reflects points - and on the most basic of levels, it's a defense's literal job to prevent the other team from scoring. In my mind, whichever defense does this the best, regardless of yards allowed, is the top defense in the league. 

In defense of those talking about yards, it is the way the NFL ranks defenses. Again I think it is nonsense but it really shouldn't blow your mind becuase that is how defenses are ranked. 

[Stank_Nasty]

7 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Right but if your Offense sucks and goes 3 and out or turns it over some other way that's ending one of the offenses possessions as useless while giving the other team an additional opportunity.

thank you.... if your offense can stay on the field it only makes sense that the other team is gonna have less possessions.

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

you don't get it I guess. that's fine. I'm not gonna go much further with it. common sense says that if your team can hold onto the ball for longer amounts of time and more sustained drives then your defense doesn't have to deal with as many possessions. this is really simple.... its not hard man. you just don't wanna acknowledge it.

 

its fine. you've had an odd crusade against the defense for months now. advanced stats like DVOA also rank them high. but its your thing. let'r rip.

 

To the highlighted.........I promise you that posessions alternate regardless.   It's one thing to not get it the first time.........but I explained it nicely.

 

And holding onto the ball.......TOP............doesn't have any direct correlation to the yardage stat we are discussing here either.

 

Who here remembers SB XXV?    Giants had possession for 40 minutes versus the Bills 20 and yet their yardage totals were nearly identical.

 

So would you say those two defenses played to a draw?

 

It's not a crusade against the defense it's just a fact that they weren't as good as their yardage stats indicate.

 

They excel when the field is larger because it allows them to use them to execute their defensive gameplan.........specifically their excellent matchup zone work.

 

In the redzone things happen faster and it becomes about playmakers.......specifically guys that can get in the backfield..........which they lacked.

 

That's what the Cover 1 article is saying too...........so are they crusading against the defense?     

 

 

[Stank_Nasty]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

To the highlighted.........I promise you that posessions alternate regardless.   It's one thing to not get it the first time.........but I explained it nicely.

 

And holding onto the ball.......TOP............doesn't have any direct correlation to the yardage stat we are discussing here either.

 

Who here remembers SB XXV?    Giants had possession for 40 minutes versus the Bills 20 and yet their yardage totals were nearly identical.

 

So would you say those two defenses played to a draw?

 

It's not a crusade against the defense it's just a fact that they weren't as good as their yardage stats indicate.

 

They excel when the field is larger because it allows them to use them to execute their defensive gameplan.........specifically their excellent matchup zone work.

 

In the redzone things happen faster and it becomes about playmakers.......specifically guys that can get in the backfield..........which they lacked.

 

That's what the Cover 1 article is saying too...........so are they crusading against the defense?     

 

 

bolded:

DUH! but our offense didn't score or turned it over!!! moot freaking point! that doesn't change the fact that the bills crappy offense and numerous turnovers didn't contribute to more defensive appearances. it just means the other defense saw the same amount of drives and did better than our defense because our offense BLEW. 

 

I agree. I would have ranked them in the 8-12 range on average.

 

 

no.... I literally said the same thing about oliver helping that out and that's what they were missing.

 

 

 

in closing, I don't think we are that far off from one another but your turnover argument is silly IMO.

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Yards is the dumbest measure of a defense. I'd be quite happy top 5 in +/- turnover ratio and somewhere between 15 and 10 in sacks. I don't think we have the pass rushers to be a top 10 sack team. I don't care about yards given up.

Same goes for Allen. I don't care how many 300 yard games he has. I care about TD, INT, and YPA.

 

I despise the yardage metric. Rex hid lousey teams behind it for years. Let’s talk points allowed. 300 yards a game can very well yield 5 TD per game. Is 35 point allowed per game a winning defense? 

Edited May 9, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Stank_Nasty]

4 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

I despise the yardage metric. Rex hid lousey teams behind it for years. Let’s talk points allowed. 300 yards a game can very well yield 5 TD per game. Is 35 point allowed per game a winning defense? 

I agree.... so my next question would be, does the bills defense only finish 19th in points allowed if they aren't top 5 in offensive to's? 

Edited May 9, 2019 by Stank_Nasty

[BADOLBILZ]

17 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Right but if your Offense sucks and goes 3 and out or turns it over some other way that's ending one of the offenses possessions as useless while giving the other team an additional opportunity.

 

 

You are going to average 12 posessions per game no matter how you slice it.

 

If your offense goes 3 and out every time and punts the ball to midfield then your defense only has about 50 yards to defend.

 

If they allow 20 yards and a field goal that's a successful stop in the yardage world.

 

Do that 12 times per game all season and you will have easily the stingiest yardage defense in the NFL and also allow 36 points per game.

 

Obviously that is exaggeration for effect,  point is,  yardage allowed is a nice stat but it can and is misleading.  

 

In the Bills case it is.    

 

It amazes me that after all the blowouts we saw last year that people thought that defense passed the eyeball test as one of the greatest defenses in Bills history..........which a top 2 unit would indicate it was.

 

They were good.   They did a lot with what they had.    They need more talent up front.   Hopefully Oliver helps A LOT and Murphy comes back healthy and Shaq and the two Phillips have career years.  That is what the defense needs.   That and better MLB play.    All possible things that are reasonable to expect the Bills to make happen, IMO.

[Dr. Who]

They were good not great and bad in the red zone. Think they'll be better this year.

[Nihilarian]

1 hour ago, Forward Progress said:

The best way to improve the defense is by keeping the offense on the field.  We've made a lot of improvements on that side of the ball this offseason.

I agree with this! Plus, having a decent run game that can move the chains or one that usually leaves the 3rd down distance shorter than five yards is a big help.

 

A strong run game will also help the defense by staying on the field each drive to ultimately score. Thus leaving the defense on the bench opposed to being on the field.  Believe it or not Buffalo was 13th in ToP in 2018 and was 30th in 2017.

 

Also, the QB shouldn't be the leading rusher like Josh Allen was last season nor should the RB be the leading receiver like Shady was in 2017.  The Bills threw deep last season more than any other NFL team and it's top two receivers missed on 85 targets between them. This should change now that Kelvin Benjamin is gone along with his 37% catch percentage. 

 

That greatly improved offensive line should not only help the run game in yard per carry and touchdowns. It should also help that QB who loves to throw deep be able to have more time in the pocket to throw deep. 

 

My only areas of concern for the 2019 Buffalo Bills defense is pass rush, stopping the run. The Bills had the #1 pass defense last season.

[Dr. Who]

More or less agree, but part of that equation is teams ran on us a lot because bad rush defense. That helps pass defense numbers. Oliver is very good at stopping the run, btw.

Edited May 9, 2019 by Dr. Who

[Reed83HOF]

8 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Posessions alternate, regardless of how many turnovers you get or give.

 

So you could get 7 turnovers,  doesn't mean you will end up with any more or less posessions than your opponent.

 

The only deciding factor on possession count is the way each half ends.   That's it, that's the math.

 

Now back to the yardage discussion.........the amount of posessions per team, per game is 12 on average. 

 

And yeah.........if you cough up the ball at your own 20 and the other team scores a TD........remember the Bills were one of THE WORST defenses in the redzone.........then you can both allow an easy TD but also keep your team on pace to lead the league in least yards allowed.  

 

In essence this is what happened a lot with the Bills.    Their special teams were terrible and they were among worst at turning the ball over offensively.   As such the defense had to defend a lot of short fields and were skewered in the red zone due to a lack of pass and run pressure and blown out many times.    But the yardage stats were actually helped by allowing opponents to have the best starting field position in the NFL.

This why I expect our D to "take a step back" this year in this type of category/ranking.

 

Rushing:

1.) We gave up the 8th most rushing attempts with 440 

2.) We were tied for 5th place in the most rushing TDs given up last season with 17 

3.) We gave the 8th most 1st downs on rushes against our D, we gave up 111

4.) 111/440 = 25% of rushes against resulted in a 1st down

 

Passing:

1.) We were 31st in the league for pass attempts against with 492, only Oakland had few passes thrown against them 

2.) We gave up 313 completions, which gives a completion % of  63.6% against us (10th lowest in the league)

3.) We were 26th in sacks

 

Red Zone & Points:

1.) We were 3rd worst in the NFL on red zone TDs, we gave up 34 TDs on 48 attempts for a TD% of 70.8%

2.) We were tied for 8th worst in FGs against us, 88.9% made

3.) We gave up the 15th most points last year, right in the middle of the pack.with an average of 23.4

 

Our offense should be better and special teams will most likely improve, if our D continues to get skewered on a longer field, we will give up more yards and many will think we regressed, when that simply is not true based on what you have so eloquently pointed out above. 

[John from Riverside]

21 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You are going to average 12 posessions per game no matter how you slice it.

 

If your offense goes 3 and out every time and punts the ball to midfield then your defense only has about 50 yards to defend.

 

If they allow 20 yards and a field goal that's a successful stop in the yardage world.

 

Do that 12 times per game all season and you will have easily the stingiest yardage defense in the NFL and also allow 36 points per game.

 

Obviously that is exaggeration for effect,  point is,  yardage allowed is a nice stat but it can and is misleading.  

 

In the Bills case it is.    

 

It amazes me that after all the blowouts we saw last year that people thought that defense passed the eyeball test as one of the greatest defenses in Bills history..........which a top 2 unit would indicate it was.

 

They were good.   They did a lot with what they had.    They need more talent up front.   Hopefully Oliver helps A LOT and Murphy comes back healthy and Shaq and the two Phillips have career years.  That is what the defense needs.   That and better MLB play.    All possible things that are reasonable to expect the Bills to make happen, IMO.

Will say it again

 

A working offense will do wonders to help this defense.....the ability to run the ball and control a game to keep our D fresh will IMMENSELY help this defense

[Ethan in Cleveland]

7 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

This why I expect our D to "take a step back" this year in this type of category/ranking.

 

Rushing:

1.) We gave up the 8th most rushing attempts with 440 

2.) We were tied for 5th place in the most rushing TDs given up last season with 17 

3.) We gave the 8th most 1st downs on rushes against our D, we gave up 111

4.) 111/440 = 25% of rushes against resulted in a 1st down

 

Passing:

1.) We were 31st in the league for pass attempts against with 492, only Oakland had few passes thrown against them 

2.) We gave up 313 completions, which gives a completion % of  63.6% against us (10th lowest in the league)

3.) We were 26th in sacks

 

Red Zone & Points:

1.) We were 3rd worst in the NFL on red zone TDs, we gave up 34 TDs on 48 attempts for a TD% of 70.8%

2.) We were tied for 8th worst in FGs against us, 88.9% made

3.) We gave up the 15th most points last year, right in the middle of the pack.with an average of 23.4

 

Our offense should be better and special teams will most likely improve, if our D continues to get skewered on a longer field, we will give up more yards and many will think we regressed, when that simply is not true based on what you have so eloquently pointed out above. 

Every stat you showed points to a mediocre to poor defense. Unlike the yards against stat that says they were a top 5 defense, even the casual fan knows it was far from a dominating defense. As others have pointed out, McDermott's defense has gotten blown out in multiple games.  Odd given his conservative nature along with Frazier's.  Kyle has always been a liability against the run and generated little push in the pass rush last year.  Edmunds was flat out bad for half the year taking terrible angles to the RB. Without the turnovers of 2017, the defense really has been mostly bad. 

On the positive however, Oliver should provide a needed inside pass rush. I think he will be a liability against the run. Almost all young DTs are. And most importantly Edmunds did seem to get better as the year went on. If he makes a big leap and the defense can force more passing attempts by stopping the offense on the early downs, then the strength of the defense, the secondary, should be able to make more plays.

[HappyDays]

43 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

It amazes me that after all the blowouts we saw last year that people thought that defense passed the eyeball test as one of the greatest defenses in Bills history..........which a top 2 unit would indicate it was.

 

Well no, it doesn't indicate that. Defensive rankings are relative to the rest of the league. I don't know if you've noticed but the era of elite shutdown defenses is over. Rule changes and new offensive concepts have made it harder than ever to stop teams from scoring points. You can't compare defenses today to defenses from past decades.

[Dr. Who]

From CBS article shortly after the draft: Oliver flashed more pass-rushing moves than in his first two years with the Cougars. The run-stopping prowess has been there since his true freshman season in 2016.

[Reed83HOF]

15 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Every stat you showed points to a mediocre to poor defense. Unlike the yards against stat that says they were a top 5 defense, even the casual fan knows it was far from a dominating defense. As others have pointed out, McDermott's defense has gotten blown out in multiple games.  Odd given his conservative nature along with Frazier's.  Kyle has always been a liability against the run and generated little push in the pass rush last year.  Edmunds was flat out bad for half the year taking terrible angles to the RB. Without the turnovers of 2017, the defense really has been mostly bad. 

On the positive however, Oliver should provide a needed inside pass rush. I think he will be a liability against the run. Almost all young DTs are. And most importantly Edmunds did seem to get better as the year went on. If he makes a big leap and the defense can force more passing attempts by stopping the offense on the early downs, then the strength of the defense, the secondary, should be able to make more plays.

 

I intentionally left the yardage out, frequently, as BADOL has stated, our opponents had a short field and looking at the amount of yards we gave up doesn't point the whole picture. Many people will focus solely on the yardage, and that gets a lot of publicity here saying we are the #2 ranked D. I wanted to show the rest

 

I cannot place the full blame on Frazier/McD because they are playing with the talent we have (we are unable to generate sacks and our ability to collapse a pocket/pressure the QB is very minimal) and our run defense has been putrid for what seems like 30 years. The DL really needs some love...

[aristocrat]

keep that offense on the field and scoring points.  keep the defense fresh.  i expect the number one run game this year with a mid to lower level passing game. seattle style.  when wilson was throwing for 3400 yards but they ran it downhill. The defense just dominated teams. 

[ctk232]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

In defense of those talking about yards, it is the way the NFL ranks defenses. Again I think it is nonsense but it really shouldn't blow your mind becuase that is how defenses are ranked. 

The fact that that's how the NFL ranks defenses isn't what "blows my mind," albeit a flawed measure.

 

I should've clarified, what blows my mind is more in relation to the discussions had this past season about our own defense and in the media in general, where the logic attempted by "experts," as well as a few on here, that because of our yards against totals (as well as other various like-metrics) that our defense was truly "elite" or "best in the league." While I never felt our defense to be anything less than stout overall, our red zone defense was deplorable and there was/is plenty of room for improvement in that regard, as well as against the run.

 

Again, many factors to consider, but the use of yards against as a metric of defensive performance is truly limited as an evaluative measure.

Edited May 9, 2019 by ctk232

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I agree.... so my next question would be, does the bills defense only finish 19th in points allowed if they aren't top 5 in offensive to's? 

 

Nope. If they aren’t top 5 in offensive turnovers then the teams that beat them would have amassed more yardage in scoring all those points.  

 

The turnovers and bad offense artificially kept defensive yards allowed low. 

 

As has been true with all truely good and great defenses, that amount of points you allow dictate how good you actually are. 

Edited May 9, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Yards is the dumbest measure of a defense. I'd be quite happy top 5 in +/- turnover ratio and somewhere between 15 and 10 in sacks. I don't think we have the pass rushers to be a top 10 sack team. I don't care about yards given up.

Same goes for Allen. I don't care how many 300 yard games he has. I care about TD, INT, and YPA.

They were also top 5 in Yards allowed per play which is about as good as it gets for comparison.

[GG]

8 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Don't think it's reasonable to expect Murphy to remain healthy. Hasn't done that in some time. 

 

They are lacking at the edge position but as long as Hughes can stay healthy and Shaq can continue to progress I think they can live with what they have. 

Shutdown defense is tough today. But compare the Bears and Bills defensive yardage ranking with Bills giving up about 5 yards less than the Bears per game..... the Bears defense was head and shoulders better then Buffalo's. Just watch the tape.

 

I think Oliver may help Hughes more than an opposite edge rusher.  Hughes was always near the QB and I think led the league in pressures.  THe trouble for him was the QBs never had a problem stepping up into a clean pocket.  Hopefully, that one step forward won't be in play this year.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 hours ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

Agreed, especially if we can put up some points and get a lead, it would play into the strength of our D forcing the opposition to pass more

 

...as long as we then do NOT go into ultra conservative "turtle mode" offensively, ending up with an "L" at the buzzer.....absolutely loathe that.....

[Peace Frog]

3 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Seems logical but I wonder if that is actually true.  First you have to subtract points given up by offense on turnovers and special teams. And just like yards, if you get a lead early the defense may give up garbage yards and points. And since it is an average, it doesn't take into account blowout losses like the Bills have had followed by low scoring games. Giving up 32 one week and 10 the next is not the same as giving up 21 in both games. My guess is statistically you have a better chance of going 2-0 giving up 21 points in each game than 32 in one and 10 in the next. 

Obviously, you would subtract the points scored by special teams and any TDs/safeties given up by the offense.  My point is, the defense's job is to stop the opposition from scoring, and our offense's job is to score points.  All of the other stuff is fluff.  

[Foxx]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Posessions alternate, regardless of how many turnovers you get or give.

 

So you could get 7 turnovers,  doesn't mean you will end up with any more or less posessions than your opponent.

 

The only deciding factor on possession count is the way each half ends.   That's it, that's the math. ...

i would just like to point out that the only fly in this ointment is the onsides kick.

[Boca BIlls]

Funny the Bills defense ended up #2 even after the first two games.