John Warrow’s High Praise For Beane & McDermott Regime

[K-9]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Yeah, he was my #1 overall pick in 2017.

I find it interesting that you pounded the table for him and yet I can’t recall a single, snarky “I told you so” from you when he broke out last year while, conversely, this place is full of people who never pounded the table for Mahomes before the draft, yet act like they did while spewing an criticism towards those who were against picking him. Funny place, this. 

[SoTier]

23 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You’re just a hater!!!! McBeane = really good on defensive personnel moves. McBeane = pretty terrible on offensive personnel moves so far. 

 

Exactly this.  Whether it's coaches or draft picks or trades or FA signings, McDermott and Beane have been consistently poor at evaluating the offensive talent; they miss far more than they hit while it's just the opposite on the defensive side.  That's not a good omen for a team in the modern NFL where offense is the name of the game.

 

7 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

You're really going to hold it against him that a 5th round QB didn't work out?  He deserves to be criticized for playing him too much; but not for the pick.

 

Peterman "didn't work out" because McDermott failed to recognize that he was, at best, a backup QB, and treated him like he was a potential starter.  My guess is that McDermott didn't watch much of Peterman's game footage.  That fifth round pick could have been used on a kid who could play ST or RB or LB or DB or whatever, and the Bills could have just signed an UDFA QB to throw pick sixes if they just had to have a QB in the 2017 draft.

 

 

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, SoTier said:

 

Exactly this.  Whether it's coaches or draft picks or trades or FA signings, McDermott and Beane have been consistently poor at evaluating the offensive talent; they miss far more than they hit while it's just the opposite on the defensive side.  That's not a good omen for a team in the modern NFL where offense is the name of the game.

 

 

Peterman "didn't work out" because McDermott failed to recognize that he was, at best, a backup QB, and treated him like he was a potential starter.  My guess is that McDermott didn't watch much of Peterman's game footage.  That fifth round pick could have been used on a kid who could play ST or RB or LB or DB or whatever, and the Bills could have just signed an UDFA QB to throw pick sixes if they just had to have a QB in the 2017 draft.

 

 

 

You're really grasping at straws to criticize McDermott.  We're talking about a 5th round pick.

[thebandit27]

9 minutes ago, K-9 said:

I find it interesting that you pounded the table for him and yet I can’t recall a single, snarky “I told you so” from you when he broke out last year while, conversely, this place is full of people who never pounded the table for Mahomes before the draft, yet act like they did while spewing an criticism towards those who were against picking him. Funny place, this. 

 

Well, I've said it in my head a whole bunch...

 

 

Seriously though, I did have to set one or two people straight...there were a few super-boisterous "I TOLD YOU SO" types, so I did have to do a bit of "where the heck were you?" stuff.

 

In general though, I don't do I-told-you-so's until the guy gets a SB ring or a gold jacket; things can change so darn fast in the NFL.

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, K-9 said:

I find it interesting that you pounded the table for him and yet I can’t recall a single, snarky “I told you so” from you when he broke out last year while, conversely, this place is full of people who never pounded the table for Mahomes before the draft, yet act like they did while spewing an criticism towards those who were against picking him. Funny place, this. 

Guess what?  It doesn't matter who "pounded the table" for Mahomes and who didn't; no one on this board gets paid to make personnel decisions for the Buffalo Bills and we all reserve the right to criticize any and all decisions the front office makes, regardless how popular said decisions were at the time. 

 

I liked the 2017 trade down with KC at the time it was made, but that doesn't mean I can't criticize McDermott now for passing on Watson and Mahomes.  Even if every fan in the world and every ESPN talking head loved the trade down at the time it was made, it was mistake, and the people who made that mistake should be held accountable for it.  The only thing that can save them from the consequences of that mistake is if Josh Allen develops into a franchise QB.  Stay tuned...        

[Shaw66]

35 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

I think it's the opposite, it's all about talent.  Look at how many teams over the years never won, the team gets a new GM, fixes the roster and they start winning.  A few examples, NY Giants, from the early 60's to around 1980, lose every year, bring in George Young, they start winning, NY Mets, bring in Frank Cashen in the early 80's and they turn around years of losing.  Detroit Red Wings were bad from around 1960 till they brought in a new GM, think it was around 1990 or so, then started winning again. 

 

A couple close to home, Marv Levy went to 4 straight Super Bowls, admittedly never won any, but 4 straight has never been done by anyone else.  Does that make him the greatest coach of all time. I wouldn't put him in the top 10 and if I thought some more, probably not even the top 20.  Scotty Bowman won 4 Stanley Cups in Montreal as coach, but he wanted to be the GM too so comes to Buffalo, roster was made over twice in the years he was here, but they never came close to winning the Cup. If it's all about coaching how could he not have won?

 

There are a couple of exceptions like NE where they have never had that much overall talent, but even there could argue he does have the best QB in the league.  I do think coaching may get you a couple more wins each year in the NFL, and will agree you typically need top level coaching to win it all, (likely the Bills problem in the 90's) but without the players you won't go anywhere.  In the case of poor talent coaching may not even generate any additional wins, just makes them play better.

All your examples are before free agency rules and salary cap.  In that rea it WAS possible to win in the NFL on talent.  I think the Lelly Bill's are, as you say, the perfect example.  But that hasn't been true for the last 20 years, except for the Seahawks, who hit some draft home runs that let them succeed for a few years with superior talent.  That is not a good strategy for building a winning franchise - that strategy requires that a Russell Wilson fall into your lap so you can get great QB play at bargain basement prices.  

 

Bill Belichick, Andy Reid and Sean Payton say hello.  Their talent keeps changing and they keep winning.  Reid won with Alex Smith, so don't say it's all about the QB.  

 

We're about to find out what kind of coaching skill the Bill's have. 

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

When, exactly, does McDermott stop getting passes for his mistakes because he "corrected" them? 

• McDermott hired Dennison but that's okay because he was replaced after a year. 
• McDermott hired Castillo but that's okay because he was replaced after two years.
• McDermott hired David Culley to be the Bills QB coach despite never being a QB in the NFL but that's okay because he left after two years, and the Bills hired a QB coach with actual experience as a QB coach, Ken Dorsey.
• McDermott passed on a first round QB in 2017 but that's okay because Tre White has been good and Mahomes or Watson wouldn't have been nearly as good with the Bills.
• McDermott wasted a pick on Nathan Peterman  but that's okay because he's gone now despite having single-handedly lost 3 games of the handful of games in which he played.

 

In regards to the coaching changes, no HC starts with his ideal staff.  Most of the guys a new HC wants are already under contract with another team.   So you grab who you can until you can get who you want.  

 

In regards to the picks, do you believe McD is actually running the Bills draft?   Personally I believe our GM is running drafts and no GM is mistake-free.

 

Anyway, you don't total up the number of mistakes when grading a HC.  You total up the wins.  You look at the roster and ask: Is the coach optimizing his win total with the roster he's been given?

 

Last year, the Bills fielded the lowest paid - and arguably, worst talented - roster in the NFL.  Yet we didn't have the worst record.  McD's win totals are exceeding the roster talent.   So far, I'm giving McD a passing grade.  

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, mannc said:

Guess what?  It doesn't matter who "pounded the table" for Mahomes and who didn't; no one on this board gets paid to make personnel decisions for the Buffalo Bills and we all reserve the right to criticize any and all decisions the front office makes,   Even if every fan in the world and every ESPN talking head loved the trade down at the time it was made, it was mistake, and the people who made that mistake should be held accountable for it. 

I hate this "held accountable" stuff.  How should McDermott be held accountable?  Should he be fired because he didn't draft Mahomes?

 

Head coaches get fired because they aren't successful over time. What qualifies as success and how much time they get is determined by the owner.  One thing is sure: none of them gets fired for one mistake.  

 

Not drafting Mahomes is one decision out of thousands that gets tossed on the scales when McDermott's performance is weighed. 

 

I expect that five years from now the narrative will be that two teams each got a great QB as the result of one trade. 

[mannc]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I hate this "held accountable" stuff.  How should McDermott be held accountable?  Should he be fired because he didn't draft Mahomes?

 

Head coaches get fired because they aren't successful over time. What qualifies as success and how much time they get is determined by the owner.  One thing is sure: none of them gets fired for one mistake.  

 

Not drafting Mahomes is one decision out of thousands that gets tossed on the scales when McDermott's performance is weighed. 

 

I expect that five years from now the narrative will be that two teams each got a great QB as the result of one trade. 

You’re right, McDermott won’t be fired for passing on one particular player; he’ll ultimately be judged based on how many games he wins.   In the meantime, though, it’s entirely fair for fans and the media to second-guess the decisions he makes along the way, no matter how smart those decisions seemed at the time.

[Rico]

23 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Well, I've said it in my head a whole bunch...

 

 

Seriously though, I did have to set one or two people straight...there were a few super-boisterous "I TOLD YOU SO" types, so I did have to do a bit of "where the heck were you?" stuff.

 

In general though, I don't do I-told-you-so's until the guy gets a SB ring or a gold jacket; things can change so darn fast in the NFL.

Yep, things can change real fast, even starting this year. 

 

Josh Allen may begin separating himself from the pack, displaying superior leadership and may just want to win more... perhaps even eventually go on to earn a ring.   

 

Mahomes may continue to put up big numbers, but never completely get the job done in January, let alone February.  

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Rico said:

 

Mahomes may continue to put up big numbers, but never completely get the job done in January, let alone February.  

 

Ah, you mean like an Andy Reid Quarterback?

[K-9]

34 minutes ago, mannc said:

Guess what?  It doesn't matter who "pounded the table" for Mahomes and who didn't; no one on this board gets paid to make personnel decisions for the Buffalo Bills and we all reserve the right to criticize any and all decisions the front office makes, regardless how popular said decisions were at the time. 

 

I liked the 2017 trade down with KC at the time it was made, but that doesn't mean I can't criticize McDermott now for passing on Watson and Mahomes.  Even if every fan in the world and every ESPN talking head loved the trade down at the time it was made, it was mistake, and the people who made that mistake should be held accountable for it.  The only thing that can save them from the consequences of that mistake is if Josh Allen develops into a franchise QB.  Stay tuned...        

More power to you. 

 

I don't object at all to criticism of the Bills front office as they've made their share of gaffes and questionable decisions. But I draw the line at using fantasy suppositions and biased projections onto totally fictitious events being used to support that criticism. 

[Rico]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Ah, you mean like an Andy Reid Quarterback?

Well, that certainly doesn’t help him, now does it. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

26 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

All your examples are before free agency rules and salary cap.  In that rea it WAS possible to win in the NFL on talent.  I think the Lelly Bill's are, as you say, the perfect example.  But that hasn't been true for the last 20 years, except for the Seahawks, who hit some draft home runs that let them succeed for a few years with superior talent.  That is not a good strategy for building a winning franchise - that strategy requires that a Russell Wilson fall into your lap so you can get great QB play at bargain basement prices.  

 

Bill Belichick, Andy Reid and Sean Payton say hello.  Their talent keeps changing and they keep winning.  Reid won with Alex Smith, so don't say it's all about the QB.  

 

We're about to find out what kind of coaching skill the Bill's have. 

 

Yeah so what, it still about talent regardless of how you acquire it.  In fact could argue  even more important now as if you screw up on FA signing, the cap hit can mess you up for the next few years.

 

In the case of Payton, he won the Super Bowl was it around 2010, since then hasn't been back and had some years they didn't make the playoffs 7-9 three years in a row and 4 out of 5.  Last year was much better and should have been i n the Super Bowl, why, because he finally got some talent on the defensive side.  I'll grant you Bellichick is the exception, but still question what would he have done without Brady.

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

In regards to the coaching changes, no HC starts with his ideal staff.  Most of the guys a new HC wants are already under contract with another team.   So you grab who you can until you can get who you want.  

 

In regards to the picks, do you believe McD is actually running the Bills draft?   Personally I believe our GM is running drafts and no GM is mistake-free.

 

Anyway, you don't total up the number of mistakes when grading a HC.  You total up the wins.  You look at the roster and ask: Is the coach optimizing his win total with the roster he's been given?

 

Last year, the Bills fielded the lowest paid - and arguably, worst talented - roster in the NFL.  Yet we didn't have the worst record.  McD's win totals are exceeding the roster talent.   So far, I'm giving McD a passing grade.  

 

Well, lucky for the Bills Denver grabbed Mike McCoy before the Bills.  IIRC, he was rumored to be McDermott's first choice for OC.

 

And yes, McDermott pretty much ran the 2017 draft as Whaley was a lame duck who was fired immediatedly after the draft.  Beane wasn't hired until May or June 2017.   Furthermore, Beane doesn't come from a player-personnel (scouting) background, so  if you don't believe McDermott has considerable say in who the team keeps, gets rid of, or brings in, you are lying to yourself.   As I said in a previous post, McDermott and Beane have mostly hits on defense but they have had mostly misses on offense.  They failed to hire an additional coach with actual experience coaching QBs despite spending a fortune in draft picks and talent to move up to grab Josh Allen.

 

McDermott doesn't get a pass from me because his team won more games than the Cardinals and a few other bottom feeder teams in 2018.   That's a pretty low bar to set for a team, not being the worst team in the league.  McDermott's Bills squads  were -54 in point differential in 2017 and -105 in 2018.  While they were 2nd in yards given up, the Bills were 32nd in red zone defense and 18th in scoring defense.  They were blown out (lost by 20 or more points) 4 times in 2017, and 4 more times in 2018, avoiding a 5th blow out lost to the Chargers when Anthony Lynn took his foot off the accelerator with his team up 28-6 at the half.  

 

McDermott took the 15-17 team he inherited to 9-7 and a wild card playoff berth in 2017 and a 6-10 disaster in 2018.  Meanwhile, other new HCs in 2017 like Anthony Lynn took the formerly 9-23 Chargers to 9-7 in 2017 and 12-4 and a playoff win in 2018.   Sean McVay took the formerly 11-21 Rams to 11-5 in 2017 with a wild card playoff berth and then 13-3 and a SB loss in 2018. 

 

In fact, winning early seems to be a very likely scenario if the HC has the goods -- and that's not necessarily a totally new phenomenon.  While Doug Pederson won the Super Bowl with the Eagles in his second season as HC in 2017, and Matt Nagy took the 5-11 Bears from 2017 and turned them into a 12-4 playoff team in 2018, Brian Billick and Bill Belichick also won SBs in their second seasons with the Ravens and Pats in 2000 and 2001 respectively.  Tom Coughlin took the 10-22 Giants to 11-5 and a playoff berth in his second season in 2005.   A couple of years later, he spoiled the Pats' undefeated season.

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by SoTier

[Royale with Cheese]

20 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Well, lucky for the Bills Denver grabbed Mike McCoy before the Bills.  IIRC, he was rumored to be McDermott's first choice for OC.

 

And yes, McDermott pretty much ran the 2017 draft as Whaley was a lame duck who was fired immediatedly after the draft.  Beane wasn't hired until May or June 2017.   Furthermore, Beane doesn't come from a player-personnel (scouting) background, so  if you don't believe McDermott has considerable say in who the team keeps, gets rid of, or brings in, you are lying to yourself.   As I said in a previous post, McDermott and Beane have mostly hits on defense but they have had mostly misses on offense.  They failed to hire an additional coach with actual experience coaching QBs despite spending a fortune in draft picks and talent to move up to grab Josh Allen.

 

McDermott doesn't get a pass from me because his team won more games than the Cardinals and a few other bottom feeder teams in 2018.   That's a pretty low bar to set for a team, not being the worst team in the league.  McDermott's Bills squads  were -54 in point differential in 2017 and -105 in 2018.  While they were 2nd in yards given up, the Bills were 32nd in red zone defense and 18th in scoring defense.  They were blown out (lost by 20 or more points) 4 times in 2017, and 4 more times in 2018, avoiding a 5th blow out lost to the Chargers when Anthony Lynn took his foot off the accelerator with his team up 28-6 at the half.  

 

McDermott took the 15-17 team he inherited to 9-7 and a wild card playoff berth in 2017 and a 6-10 disaster in 2018.  Meanwhile, other new HCs in 2017 like Anthony Lynn took the formerly 9-23 Chargers to 9-7 in 2017 and 12-4 and a playoff win in 2018.   Sean McVay took the formerly 11-21 Rams to 11-5 in 2017 with a wild card playoff berth and then 13-3 and a SB loss in 2018. 

 

In fact, winning early seems to be a very likely scenario if the HC has the goods -- and that's not necessarily a totally new phenomenon.  While Doug Pederson won the Super Bowl with the Eagles in his second season as HC in 2017, and Matt Nagy took the 5-11 Bears from 2017 and turned them into a 12-4 playoff team in 2018, Brian Billick and Bill Belichick also won SBs in their second seasons with the Ravens and Pats in 2000 and 2001 respectively.  Tom Coughlin took the 10-22 Giants to 11-5 and a playoff berth in his second season in 2005.   A couple of years later, he spoiled the Pats' undefeated season.

 

 

You know your Bill Belichick example actually hurts you.....he was fired from the Browns because they weren't winning.  Bill wasn't winning early.

Bill didn't win until he got Brady because with Bledsoe....he was 5-13 as the Pats coach before Brady.

It's a lot easier to win when you have a QB huh?

 

Also, every situation and scenario is different.  There are coaches who didn't win early who won later....like Bill Belichick.  

Edited June 24, 2019 by Royale with Cheese

[oldmanfan]

23 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Well, lucky for the Bills Denver grabbed Mike McCoy before the Bills.  IIRC, he was rumored to be McDermott's first choice for OC.

 

And yes, McDermott pretty much ran the 2017 draft as Whaley was a lame duck who was fired immediatedly after the draft.  Beane wasn't hired until May or June 2017.   Furthermore, Beane doesn't come from a player-personnel (scouting) background, so  if you don't believe McDermott has considerable say in who the team keeps, gets rid of, or brings in, you are lying to yourself.   As I said in a previous post, McDermott and Beane have mostly hits on defense but they have had mostly misses on offense.  They failed to hire an additional coach with actual experience coaching QBs despite spending a fortune in draft picks and talent to move up to grab Josh Allen.

 

McDermott doesn't get a pass from me because his team won more games than the Cardinals and a few other bottom feeder teams in 2018.   That's a pretty low bar to set for a team, not being the worst team in the league.  McDermott's Bills squads  were -54 in point differential in 2017 and -105 in 2018.  While they were 2nd in yards given up, the Bills were 32nd in red zone defense and 18th in scoring defense.  They were blown out (lost by 20 or more points) 4 times in 2017, and 4 more times in 2018, avoiding a 5th blow out lost to the Chargers when Anthony Lynn took his foot off the accelerator with his team up 28-6 at the half.  

 

McDermott took the 15-17 team he inherited to 9-7 and a wild card playoff berth in 2017 and a 6-10 disaster in 2018.  Meanwhile, other new HCs in 2017 like Anthony Lynn took the formerly 9-23 Chargers to 9-7 in 2017 and 12-4 and a playoff win in 2018.   Sean McVay took the formerly 11-21 Rams to 11-5 in 2017 with a wild card playoff berth and then 13-3 and a SB loss in 2018. 

 

In fact, winning early seems to be a very likely scenario if the HC has the goods -- and that's not necessarily a totally new phenomenon.  While Doug Pederson won the Super Bowl with the Eagles in his second season as HC in 2017, and Matt Nagy took the 5-11 Bears from 2017 and turned them into a 12-4 playoff team in 2018, Brian Billick and Bill Belichick also won SBs in their second seasons with the Ravens and Pats in 2000 and 2001 respectively.  Tom Coughlin took the 10-22 Giants to 11-5 and a playoff berth in his second season in 2005.   A couple of years later, he spoiled the Pats' undefeated season.

 

6-10 isn't a disaster.  Disappointing but understandable breaking in a rookieQB.  Your hyperbole gets ridiculous.  You want disaster call a Giants fan.

[teef]

i'm just going to stop by in this thread and stretch my legs a little.  

[eball]

@SoTier I have one simple question (and follow up) for you:

 

What, in particular, are you trying to get Bills fans to admit?  And why?

[BADOLBILZ]

7 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I get that, but at the margins points scored and allowed depends to an extent on field position starts, ST play, turnovers given up or causes by the other unit, etc. And then there’s strength of schedule — not every team is lucky enough to be the Patriots and get an automatic 6 games against perpetually inferior organizations.   DVOA does a good job of washing away all that noise, which is why I like it.

 

 

It's good no doubt.......but do you think the Bills were the second best defense in the NFL last year?    AHEAD of Baltimore?  That Baltimore defense was suffocating.    The Bills defense was very good with a long field to defend and not very good in the red zone.    To me that indicates a defense that can't get into the backfield when it needs to...........a red flag for a defense that DVOA and yardage say was #2 overall.    

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

6-10 isn't a disaster.  Disappointing but understandable breaking in a rookieQB.  Your hyperbole gets ridiculous.  You want disaster call a Giants fan.

 

 

I don't know about "disaster"...........but a -105 point differential typically indicates that you performed more at the level of a 4-5 win team.

 

It wasn't a pretty season.........Josh Allen turning into an unexpected 100 yard rushing force probably skewed the team success but nobody thinks THAT is sustainable or should even be tried again.

 

They probably entered the offseason at a lower point than their 6 wins might indicate.......but it's the NFL.........no reason a 4-6 win team can't turn into an 11-12 win team with a young QB improving and an offseason where they basically lose nobody, sign 18 free agents and draft near the top of each round............they were in a great position to make a big turnaround......we'll see how it goes.  

 

 

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

You know your Bill Belichick example actually hurts you.....he was fired from the Browns because they weren't winning.  Bill wasn't winning early.

Bill didn't win until he got Brady because with Bledsoe....he was 5-13 as the Pats coach before Brady.

It's a lot easier to win when you have a QB huh?

 

Also, every situation and scenario is different.  There are coaches who didn't win early who won later....like Bill Belichick.  

 

I didn't say first time HCs.  That's your stipulation, not mine.  They were new to the teams they came to and won with.

 

Actually, Bledsoe was a pretty good QB.  He was an Pro Bowler 4 times IIRC.  He led NE to their lone Super Bowl appearance before the Belichick era as well as several other playoff seasons.  He still holds Bills passing records from his short stint here, and he was easily the best QB to wear a Bills uni since Kelly retired.  He threw for more than 44,000 yards.

 

I think that McDermott needs to show better than he has so far if he would merit continuing as Bills HC.  Regardless of his win-loss record, his team needs to at least be within spitting distance of having a positive point differential and his teams can't keep getting blown out every fourth game.  That means that his team has to get better on offense in general and the defense has to significantly improve in the red zone.

 

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

6-10 isn't a disaster.  Disappointing but understandable breaking in a rookieQB.  Your hyperbole gets ridiculous.  You want disaster call a Giants fan.

 

-105 point differential.  4 blow out losses that would have been 5 if not for the Chargers mailing it in in the second half of the second game.  Failing to score as many as 10 points in 5 games.  Giving up 30 or more points in a quarter of their games.  That sounds like a disaster to me.  The only reason to watch the Bills last season was to watch Allen's heroics but call it whatever you want.

 

2 hours ago, eball said:

@SoTier I have one simple question (and follow up) for you:

 

What, in particular, are you trying to get Bills fans to admit?  And why?

 

I'm not trying to convince anybody of anything.  I state my opinion, frequently in response to other fans opinions that I don't agree with.  Obviously, some people here don't like to hear/see the Bills criticized in any way, shape or form -- see the knee jerk trashing of any media maven who expresses an opinion other than that the Bills are playoff bound this season -- unless they're the ones doing the criticizing. 

 

I'm sorry that my skepticism of this latest Bills regime -- owner, FO, coaches -- interferes with your fantasies for the Bills, but that's your problem not mine.

[K-9]

3 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I didn't say first time HCs.  That's your stipulation, not mine.  They were new to the teams they came to and won with.

 

Actually, Bledsoe was a pretty good QB.  He was an Pro Bowler 4 times IIRC.  He led NE to their lone Super Bowl appearance before the Belichick era as well as several other playoff seasons.  He still holds Bills passing records from his short stint here, and he was easily the best QB to wear a Bills uni since Kelly retired.  He threw for more than 44,000 yards.

 

I think that McDermott needs to show better than he has so far if he would merit continuing as Bills HC.  Regardless of his win-loss record, his team needs to at least be within spitting distance of having a positive point differential and his teams can't keep getting blown out every fourth game.  That means that his team has to get better on offense in general and the defense has to significantly improve in the red zone.

 

 

-105 point differential.  4 blow out losses that would have been 5 if not for the Chargers mailing it in in the second half of the second game.  Failing to score as many as 10 points in 5 games.  Giving up 30 or more points in a quarter of their games.  That sounds like a disaster to me.  The only reason to watch the Bills last season was to watch Allen's heroics but call it whatever you want.

 

 

I'm not trying to convince anybody of anything.  I state my opinion, frequently in response to other fans opinions that I don't agree with.  Obviously, some people here don't like to hear/see the Bills criticized in any way, shape or form -- see the knee jerk trashing of any media maven who expresses an opinion other than that the Bills are playoff bound this season -- unless they're the ones doing the criticizing. 

 

I'm sorry that my skepticism of this latest Bills regime -- owner, FO, coaches -- interferes with your fantasies for the Bills, but that's your problem not mine.

Per the bold, as a point of accuracy their first SB appearance was under Raymond Berry as HC and Tony Eason at QB (although Grogan played some as well) in 1985. They lost to the Bears in SBXX. 

[Cripple Creek]

26 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I'm sorry that my skepticism of this latest Bills regime -- owner, FO, coaches -- interferes with your fantasies for the Bills, but that's your problem not mine.

You see there? It’s takes like this that endear you to so many here.

 

You are skeptical, but anyone who disagrees with you is living in fantasy land.

 

I’ve said it before & I’ll say it again, I want to party with you, man.

[Royale with Cheese]

42 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I didn't say first time HCs.  That's your stipulation, not mine.  They were new to the teams they came to and won with.

 

Actually, Bledsoe was a pretty good QB.  He was an Pro Bowler 4 times IIRC.  He led NE to their lone Super Bowl appearance before the Belichick era as well as several other playoff seasons.  He still holds Bills passing records from his short stint here, and he was easily the best QB to wear a Bills uni since Kelly retired.  He threw for more than 44,000 yards.

Hmmmmm.....I guess the ‘85 Bears didn’t play an AFC team in the Super Bowl?

 

Im really confused by this.

 

You said “win early”.  So why doesn’t Belicheck’s Cleveland stint not count?  Then you say “I didn’t say first time head coaches”.

So why is McDermott included in this argument then?

 

And not only that, you included Matt Nagy and Doug Pederson in the above too....those are first time head coaches!!

 

Without Tom Brady, Bill Belichick has a career  W/L record is 41-59.  That includes Bledsoe who you just said was a pretty good QB.  

 

And no, it’s not the opinion in itself.  It’s your arguments.  They are all over the place and they are flawed.

Edited June 24, 2019 by Royale with Cheese

[Rico]

56 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I didn't say first time HCs.  That's your stipulation, not mine.  They were new to the teams they came to and won with.

 

Actually, Bledsoe was a pretty good QB.  He was an Pro Bowler 4 times IIRC.  He led NE to their lone Super Bowl appearance before the Belichick era as well as several other playoff seasons.  He still holds Bills passing records from his short stint here, and he was easily the best QB to wear a Bills uni since Kelly retired.  He threw for more than 44,000 yards.

Drew Bledsoe fan... that explains a lot.

[Zerovoltz]

9 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Gotta be careful when you play the stats game...

 

Allen's Week 17 stat line as a rookie in a meaningless game:

17/26, 224 yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 9 rushes, 95 yards, 2 TDs

 

Mahomes' Week 17 stat line as a rookie in a meaningless game:

22/35, 284 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 7 rushes, 10 yards, 0 TDs

 

 

Allow me to add some perspective here:

 

Mahomes didn't play 4 quarters of that game.  He played the first half, and a some of the third quarter.  He had no passing TD but had made several great throws for big chunks and they were running the ball in.  They had built a 2 TD lead by midway through the 3rd and Mahomes went to the bench so that Tyler Bray (third string QB) could get reps.  Bray went out and turned the ball over twice leading the Broncos to tie the game back up.  Mahomes came off the bench with 2:30 left and led the game winning drive again.  And........(see next comment)

 

8 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I didn't say you were putting Allen down.  I said that you have to be careful with the stats game...for a lot of reasons...

 

1) Details matter.

 

That "3rd ranked" Denver defense allowed 23.9 PPG in 2017; only 7 teams allowed more.  By the way, the Tyrod-lead Bills scored more points against that same defense in Week 3 than Mahomes' Chiefs in Week 17.  Also worth noting are the snap counts for Denver's defensive stars in that game:

Talib - 10

Harris - 15

Miller - 33

 

All season-lows

 

2) Are you implying that experience makes a difference when evaluating a player?  I agree.  In fact, the biggest difference a player will ever experience is the difference between his first NFL offseason (which happens after the draft) and his first real NFL offsesaon (which happens after his first season).  Once a rookie actually reaches the end of his first season, he's been in "season mode" for almost 17 months.  He's gone from college pre-season in August through the bowl season in January, then into draft prep, combine, visits, workouts, etc. through April. Then, just a week or two later, he's already in rookie minicamp, followed by OTAs, minicamp, and a 6 week break to get his life in order before his first training camp.

 

Forget the toll that takes on your body, what about the stress on your mind?  It's no wonder that guys like Goff and Trubisky (and, to a lesser extent, Wentz) can go from looking utterly lost as rookies to looking like franchise QBs in year 2.

 

I don't say all this to say that you're wrong to be skeptical of Allen, or that he's going to be as good as Mahomes.  What I am saying, however, is that comparing the two of them based upon their respective NFL bodies of work is apples-to-oranges at this point.

 

.......while Talib, Harris and Miller all saw season low snap counts, those snaps came while Mahomes was playing.  Also keep in mind KC starter snap counts in this game.  Hunt - 1.  ......and that's it.  Kelce, almost the entire O-line and all the WR were backups for the WHOLE game.  If you watch highlights of Mahomes from that game...you will see him making incredible plays with Miller chasing him and Talib covering....

 

While this was a "meaningless" game....the context matters.

[thebandit27]

14 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

 

Allow me to add some perspective here:

 

Mahomes didn't play 4 quarters of that game.  He played the first half, and a some of the third quarter.  He had no passing TD but had made several great throws for big chunks and they were running the ball in.  They had built a 2 TD lead by midway through the 3rd and Mahomes went to the bench so that Tyler Bray (third string QB) could get reps.  Bray went out and turned the ball over twice leading the Broncos to tie the game back up.  Mahomes came off the bench with 2:30 left and led the game winning drive again.  And........(see next comment)

 

 

.......while Talib, Harris and Miller all saw season low snap counts, those snaps came while Mahomes was playing.  Also keep in mind KC starter snap counts in this game.  Hunt - 1.  ......and that's it.  Kelce, almost the entire O-line and all the WR were backups for the WHOLE game.  If you watch highlights of Mahomes from that game...you will see him making incredible plays with Miller chasing him and Talib covering....

 

While this was a "meaningless" game....the context matters.

 

I think you may have missed the point.

 

And Hunt played more than 1 snap according to PFR, but again, not the point.

 

I don't need to watch highlights from that game; I watched that game. Do you think for a second that I'd miss the kid's first NFL start after I spent 10 months hyping him?

 

[Zerovoltz]

17 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I think you may have missed the point.

 

And Hunt played more than 1 snap according to PFR, but again, not the point.

 

I don't need to watch highlights from that game; I watched that game. Do you think for a second that I'd miss the kid's first NFL start after I spent 10 months hyping him?

 

Not at all...I just wanted to add that Mahomes first start numbers are quite a bit more impressive when you add that he was playing with backups and he only played a little less than 3 quarters of football.

 

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

Not at all...I just wanted to add that Mahomes first start numbers are quite a bit more impressive when you add that he was playing with backups and he only played a little less than 3 quarters of football.

 

 

Yes, that's the point that I was making. You have to be careful when you play the stats game.

 

Of course, one would be justified in saying that Allen was also playing with nothing but backups--in week 17 and for the 16 weeks before then as well

[LSHMEAB]

On 6/23/2019 at 3:55 PM, K-9 said:

I agree 100% so I'm not sure what argument you think I'm making above. I'll sum it up and say I'd have a lot more respect for people who make claims BEFORE HAND, with well reasoned logic behind them vs. the throngs of hindsight GMs who maintain they knew something all along after the fact. 

Fair enough. If we're talking about fans bragging that they knew Mahomes was gonna be a stud(when they may very well be lying), I get it. Very annoying actually.

 

My point was referencing the sentiment of "how could anyone have known?" regarding draft picks. The front office gets paid to get it right more often than not. That's their job! The fact that Joe Blow didn't know Mahomes would be great has nothing to do with the Bills brass. They make these decisions and they will ultimately be judged by them. If Allen was a hit, they'll be in business. If he flops, neither Beane or McDermott are likely to get another crack at their current gigs. I'm hoping for the former.

Edited June 25, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

And the Bills, an organization looking for a franchise QB forever, were the team the Chiefs traded up with to get Mahomes.... like you said, they'll have made up for it if Allen is a good one. 

 

For the love of Christ.  NO ONE had Mahomes going in the top 10. Nobody.  You act like the Bills passed on a QB who FELL to them.  If you're telling me that you weren't shocked when the trade took place, then you're lying.  Everyone was shocked.  Everyone.  Get over it, dude.  You're embarrassing yourself.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

27 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

For the love of Christ.  NO ONE had Mahomes going in the top 10. Nobody.  You act like the Bills passed on a QB who FELL to them.  If you're telling me that you weren't shocked when the trade took place, then you're lying.  Everyone was shocked.  Everyone.  Get over it, dude.  You're embarrassing yourself.

 

What? If they had simply passed on Mahomes and Watson it would be slightly better optics. Instead they traded the eventual league MVP when they needed a QB and went with Nathan Peterman in round 5 instead.

 

You can’t write an outcome like that and be taken seriously beforehand, but it happened. 

[Gugny]

2 minutes ago, Chemical said:

 

What? If they had simply passed on Mahomes and Watson it would be slightly better optics. Instead they traded the eventual league MVP when they needed a QB and went with Nathan Peterman in round 5 instead.

 

You can’t write an outcome like that and be taken seriously beforehand, but it happened. 

 

And let me guess ... when it happened, you were yelling, "NOOOOO!!!!!!  The Chiefs just got a QB who's going to win the MVP in his first year starting!!!!!" at the TV, right?

 

No.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

20 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

And let me guess ... when it happened, you were yelling, "NOOOOO!!!!!!  The Chiefs just got a QB who's going to win the MVP in his first year starting!!!!!" at the TV, right?

 

No.

 

No and no one claimed that and it wouldn’t matter if they did. 

[BADOLBILZ]

39 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

For the love of Christ.  NO ONE had Mahomes going in the top 10. Nobody.  You act like the Bills passed on a QB who FELL to them.  If you're telling me that you weren't shocked when the trade took place, then you're lying.  Everyone was shocked.  Everyone.  Get over it, dude.  You're embarrassing yourself.

 

Most draftniks had Watson rated ahead of Mahomes.    He was also an option and there were mocks that had him in the top 10. 

 

Some of us here preferred Mahomes higher ceiling as a passer.........others(like Gunner) preferred Watson overall game..........but both were almost universally considered first rounders and there is no such thing as a QB drafted in round 1 who isn't viewed as a prospective franchise QB.

 

And for the team that gets that franchise QB no player at any other position is worth more...........Both Bosa's aren't worth ANY young franchise QB.............that's why teams trade up to take QB's.   

 

And also......ya' know.......the Bills had Tyrod Taylor at quarterback........and we know how much you liked Tyrod but even you have to admit there was room for improvement.

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Most draftniks had Watson rated ahead of Mahomes.    He was also an option and there were mocks that had him in the top 10. 

 

Some of us here preferred Mahomes higher ceiling as a passer.........others(like Gunner) preferred Watson overall game..........but both were almost universally considered first rounders and there is no such thing as a QB drafted in round 1 who isn't viewed as a prospective franchise QB.

 

And for the team that gets that franchise QB no player at any other position is worth more...........Both Bosa's aren't worth ANY young franchise QB.............that's why teams trade up to take QB's.   

 

And also......ya' know.......the Bills had Tyrod Taylor at quarterback........and we know how much you liked Tyrod but even you have to admit there was room for improvement.

 

The Alt-Right Bosas can go scratch.

 

Yes, I loved me some Tyrod.  Loved that 3rd round pick we got for his sorry ass.

 

I'm no draft expert, but I do pay attention to what the talking heads say and I do read mocks, etc.  I recall Mahomes being a first-to-second rounder.  I don't recall anyone projecting him going in the top 10.  I also remember everyone being surprised when KC traded up that high for him.

 

And do you really think Lamont Jackson (first rounder) is a franchise QB?  

[Thurman#1]

16 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Most draftniks had Watson rated ahead of Mahomes.    He was also an option and there were mocks that had him in the top 10. 

 

Some of us here preferred Mahomes higher ceiling as a passer.........others(like Gunner) preferred Watson overall game..........but both were almost universally considered first rounders and there is no such thing as a QB drafted in round 1 who isn't viewed as a prospective franchise QB.

 

And for the team that gets that franchise QB no player at any other position is worth more...........Both Bosa's aren't worth ANY young franchise QB.............that's why teams trade up to take QB's.   

 

And also......ya' know.......the Bills had Tyrod Taylor at quarterback........and we know how much you liked Tyrod but even you have to admit there was room for improvement.

 

 

Yes, they had Tyrod.

 

But, no, they didn't have a long-term GM that McDermott could respect and trust. You keep avoiding this, but it's almost certainly the reason they didn't go after a QB in that draft. McDermott didn't trust himself, a defensive coach, to pick a quarterback, and his temp GM, Whaley, hadn't shown much talent at picking QBs either. They knew the next year was shaping up as a year when there would be a lot of good young QBs, and it turned out to be so. McDermott figured the next year they'd have a GM he could respect to make the pick in a terrific year for QBs.

 

We simply don't know how this will turn out. If Allen develops well, it could still turn out to be a great decision.

 

 

Edited June 25, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

14 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Well, lucky for the Bills Denver grabbed Mike McCoy before the Bills.  IIRC, he was rumored to be McDermott's first choice for OC.

 

And yes, McDermott pretty much ran the 2017 draft as Whaley was a lame duck who was fired immediatedly after the draft.  Beane wasn't hired until May or June 2017.   Furthermore, Beane doesn't come from a player-personnel (scouting) background, so  if you don't believe McDermott has considerable say in who the team keeps, gets rid of, or brings in, you are lying to yourself.   As I said in a previous post, McDermott and Beane have mostly hits on defense but they have had mostly misses on offense.  They failed to hire an additional coach with actual experience coaching QBs despite spending a fortune in draft picks and talent to move up to grab Josh Allen.

 

McDermott doesn't get a pass from me because his team won more games than the Cardinals and a few other bottom feeder teams in 2018.   That's a pretty low bar to set for a team, not being the worst team in the league.  McDermott's Bills squads  were -54 in point differential in 2017 and -105 in 2018.  While they were 2nd in yards given up, the Bills were 32nd in red zone defense and 18th in scoring defense.  They were blown out (lost by 20 or more points) 4 times in 2017, and 4 more times in 2018, avoiding a 5th blow out lost to the Chargers when Anthony Lynn took his foot off the accelerator with his team up 28-6 at the half.  

 

McDermott took the 15-17 team he inherited to 9-7 and a wild card playoff berth in 2017 and a 6-10 disaster in 2018.  Meanwhile, other new HCs in 2017 like Anthony Lynn took the formerly 9-23 Chargers to 9-7 in 2017 and 12-4 and a playoff win in 2018.   Sean McVay took the formerly 11-21 Rams to 11-5 in 2017 with a wild card playoff berth and then 13-3 and a SB loss in 2018. 

 

In fact, winning early seems to be a very likely scenario if the HC has the goods -- and that's not necessarily a totally new phenomenon.  While Doug Pederson won the Super Bowl with the Eagles in his second season as HC in 2017, and Matt Nagy took the 5-11 Bears from 2017 and turned them into a 12-4 playoff team in 2018, Brian Billick and Bill Belichick also won SBs in their second seasons with the Ravens and Pats in 2000 and 2001 respectively.  Tom Coughlin took the 10-22 Giants to 11-5 and a playoff berth in his second season in 2005.   A couple of years later, he spoiled the Pats' undefeated season.

 

 

 

Yes, you did say in an earlier post that they had mostly misses on offense ... and it's just as ridiculous a contention now as it was when you said it. It's been debunked a dozen times. A thirteenth isn't necessary for anyone but you but since you're on an infinite loop of repeating nonsense, I guess it won't hurt to point out one more time what makes sense here ... that Beane now has two drafts, and only one of the groups has played so far. And on offense in that draft he picked Josh Allen and nobody else till the fifth round. So far, Wyatt Teller, that fifth rounder, has been a good value.

 

And again, they spent virtually no FA money on offense last year, due to the awful salary cap situation that Beane had committed himself - in his job interview - to cleaning up by the beginning of this season. On defense they spent money and got results in FA. On offense they spent almost no money. For what they spent they actually got a bunch of bargains, Foster, Croom, McKenzie, and a bunch more ... unbelievably cheap and yet productive.

 

And since you're also on nonsense repeat as far as wins, I'll repeat the obvious refutation again as well. The Bills were rebuilding. The first two years of a near-complete rebuild are always going to be awful for wins and losses. Always. Yes, it's possible to win quickly when you bring in a new coach ... if you're not rebuilding. Not a single one of the coaches you bring up here was rebuilding. Not one. All reloads.

 

 

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I don't know about "disaster"...........but a -105 point differential typically indicates that you performed more at the level of a 4-5 win team.

 

It wasn't a pretty season.........Josh Allen turning into an unexpected 100 yard rushing force probably skewed the team success but nobody thinks THAT is sustainable or should even be tried again.

 

They probably entered the offseason at a lower point than their 6 wins might indicate.......but it's the NFL.........no reason a 4-6 win team can't turn into an 11-12 win team with a young QB improving and an offseason where they basically lose nobody, sign 18 free agents and draft near the top of each round............they were in a great position to make a big turnaround......we'll see how it goes.  

 

 

 

They were in an awful position to make a big turnaround. Still in bad cap shape and committed to the owners to get the cap in terrific shape by this season ... hoping to sit a rookie QB for the season or much of it, and with an offense that they hadn't yet seriously addressed except for bringing in Josh Allen.

 

Last year always looked like it was going to be a bad year. This year they are finally in much better shape to achieve some more wins. 11-12 wins is a ridiculous expectation with a 2nd year QB and an OL that doesn't look to have got a single guy who's played next to the guy on either side of him. But yeah, very reasonable to expect real improvement.

Edited June 25, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's good no doubt.......but do you think the Bills were the second best defense in the NFL last year?    AHEAD of Baltimore?  That Baltimore defense was suffocating.    The Bills defense was very good with a long field to defend and not very good in the red zone.    To me that indicates a defense that can't get into the backfield when it needs to...........a red flag for a defense that DVOA and yardage say was #2 overall.    

 

 

Know which other defense was not very good in the red zone? The Pats. 24th in red zone defense. And Carolina also, the team the Bills are in many ways modeling themselves after. 27th in red zone defense.

 

I agree with your larger point here, that the Bills weren't 2nd best on D. Somewhere around 4th or 5th, I'd argue ... between 3rd and 6th probably and that's very good. You're right that they need to work on pressure, but picking Oliver should help.

Edited June 25, 2019 by Thurman#1