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John Warrow’s High Praise For Beane & McDermott Regime

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Oh I think they get a 4th year unless this year is an utter disaster.

 

If they aren't a Super Bowl contender in 2020 I'd be pretty disappointed. 

I've seen posts of people saying these guys get 5 years no matter what

 

It doesn't work that way.

Where? I haven't seen that. I have seen 5 years with "some amount" of progress. But I haven't seen 5 years "no matter what". Unless I missed it somehow, but I doubt anyone would say they get 5 years no matter the outcome, but then again some will say some silly stuff at times.

 

Anyways just asking where you saw 5 years no matter what.

Edited by Patrick_Duffy

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4 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Oh I think they get a 4th year unless this year is an utter disaster.

 

If they aren't a Super Bowl contender in 2020 I'd be pretty disappointed. 

I've seen posts of people saying these guys get 5 years no matter what. 

 

It doesn't work that way.

All depends on the nature of any stagnation or regression. 

 

But I’m utterly shocked, SHOCKED I tell you, to learn that if they aren’t a Super Bowl contender in 2020 that you’d be disappointed. Seems so out of character for you. 

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1 minute ago, K-9 said:

All depends on the nature of any stagnation or regression. 

 

But I’m utterly shocked, SHOCKED I tell you, to learn that if they aren’t a Super Bowl contender in 2020 that you’d be disappointed. Seems so out of character for you. 

I know.

 

Fans here seem to think It takes 4-5 years just to build a playoff team.😅

2 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Where? I haven't seen that. I have seen 5 years with "some amount" of progress. But I haven't seen 5 years "no matter what". Unless I missed it somehow, but I doubt anyone would say they get 5 years no matter the outcome, but then again some will say some silly stuff at times.

 

Anyways just asking where you saw 5 years no matter what.

Just read the board. 

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I know.

 

Fans here seem to think It takes 4-5 years just to build a playoff team.😅

Just read the board. 

Again,I have, quite thoroughly and have not seen that. Which is why I think your full of ***** or you may have misread. As I stated, I have seen 4 to 5 years with some amount of success, not 5 years no matter what.

 

That's basically saying they get 5 years even if they go 1-15 for 5 years. Which is absurd.

Edited by Patrick_Duffy

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5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I know.

 

Fans here seem to think It takes 4-5 years just to build a playoff team.😅

Just read the board. 

Well, I personally think they are at least two years away. So that’s four. I guess I’m one of them. That’s just being realistic. 

 

But instead of insisting on wallowing in the misery of every mistake made in the past, I’ll look forward and judge this administration when their final chapter is written. Whenever that may be. 

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3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm out.  Sorry I got into this.  I won't again. 

I bailed awhile ago on this... People must be bored. 

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2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Well, I personally think they are at least two years away. So that’s four. I guess I’m one of them. That’s just being realistic. 

 

But instead of insisting on wallowing in the misery of every mistake made in the past, I’ll look forward and judge this administration when their final chapter is written. Whenever that may be. 

4 to 5 years to build a playoff team, or 5 years no matter what? lol

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5 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Well, I personally think they are at least two years away. So that’s four. I guess I’m one of them. That’s just being realistic. 

 

But instead of insisting on wallowing in the misery of every mistake made in the past, I’ll look forward and judge this administration when their final chapter is written. Whenever that may be. 

So.....if they miss playoffs this year with 8-9 wins, and make it the next......they will have made the playoffs in 50% of seasons in their first four years - after a 17 year drought! Sure, lets get rid of the bums (said the knee jerk negative Nellie crowd). 

 

Relax and hope we see what looks like progress. 

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27 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Oh I think they get a 4th year unless this year is an utter disaster.

 

If they aren't a Super Bowl contender in 2020 I'd be pretty disappointed. 

I've seen posts of people saying these guys get 5 years no matter what. 

 

It doesn't work that way.

 

All Division winners (except for the few examples of extremely poor divisions) are Super Bowl contenders in my mind.

The 4 that get byes are what teams aspire to.

A 2020 Bills push to be in contention to win the division for me is what separates the Beane/McDermott litmus test.

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7 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

All Division winners (except for the few examples of extremely poor divisions) are Super Bowl contenders in my mind.

The 4 that get byes are what teams aspire to.

A 2020 Bills push to be in contention to win the division for me is what separates the Beane/McDermott litmus test.

Winning the division has to be the first goal every year. It sucks for us that we’ve been in a division with the greatest coach and QB of their era, but that still has to be goal one. Every year. 

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As I posted elsewhere.......

I don’t mean to take this out of context, but the Bills have been in the unfortunate position of being in something like a 4 team division of basketball back in the UCLA Bruins/John Wooden days. Yeah, we can complain that they keep beating us, but let’s remember they beat EVERYONE more often than not. All too frequently in the Super Bowl. It’s been a horrible stretch. 

 

Time for a new era. I like where we stand at this point. Time will tell. 

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5 minutes ago, Augie said:

As I posted elsewhere.......

I don’t mean to take this out of context, but the Bills have been in the unfortunate position of being in something like a 4 team division of basketball back in the UCLA Bruins/John Wooden days. Yeah, we can complain that they keep beating us, but let’s remember they beat EVERYONE more often than not. All too frequently in the Super Bowl. It’s been a horrible stretch. 

 

Time for a new era. I like where we stand at this point. Time will tell. 

Good point and even better comparison with Wooden and those great UCLA teams. 

 

The Pats*** beat everybody, like you said. I think Brady/Bellyache have a losing record vs. one team in the league and that’s because they don’t play Carolina often enough. I simply have to tip my hat at that kind of sustained excellence. 

 

Time for a new era indeed. 

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14 minutes ago, Augie said:

As I posted elsewhere.......

I don’t mean to take this out of context, but the Bills have been in the unfortunate position of being in something like a 4 team division of basketball back in the UCLA Bruins/John Wooden days. Yeah, we can complain that they keep beating us, but let’s remember they beat EVERYONE more often than not. All too frequently in the Super Bowl. It’s been a horrible stretch. 

 

Time for a new era. I like where we stand at this point. Time will tell. 

Yep, but they absolutely ***** on us.

 

Bradys record against the Bills is ridiculous.

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3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yep, but they absolutely ***** on us.

 

Bradys record against the Bills is ridiculous.

 

Just like the record against rookie QB’s. We are not unique, but some people act like we are. I’m looking forward to the new era! 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, K-9 said:

But I’m utterly shocked, SHOCKED I tell you, to learn that if they aren’t a Super Bowl contender in 2020 that you’d be disappointed. Seems so out of character for you. 

 

Well I don't think it's unreasonable. 2020 is year 4 of the new regime and year 3 of their hand picked franchise QB. If they aren't contending for a Super Bowl by that point what are we waiting for?

Edited by HappyDays
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Where? I haven't seen that. I have seen 5 years with "some amount" of progress. But I haven't seen 5 years "no matter what". Unless I missed it somehow, but I doubt anyone would say they get 5 years no matter the outcome, but then again some will say some silly stuff at times.

 

Anyways just asking where you saw 5 years no matter what.

I've definitely seen "they'll get 5 years no matter what PD." I would assume that infers that they're not gonna go 0-16, but I've heard it.

 

I think fans in general have a strong affinity for Beane and McDermott. Probably Beane to a greater extent. They SEEM to be running the organization "professionally" compared to year's past. That emotional investment SEEMS to be so strong that they're willing to give them a long leash "no matter what." 

 

I believe they would have a change of heart if the product is a disaster, but that's my perception of the whole "5 years no matter what thing."

 

I think they've done some good things and some bad things. I think McDermott has done an outstanding job with the talent at hand. What's different about this season is that the cap hell thing is over. Beane has had the ability to bring in his guys. So while it's not playoffs or bust, progress is a must.

 

For me, it's all good and well that there seems to be a solid structure in place, but W's and L's is all that really matters.

 

Tom Donahoe appeared to be laying a solid foundation until he wasn't. That in no way means that Beane and McDermott will fail. We all (presumably) want to see the Bills win ASAP. It just means that the culture and all that jazz has to translate to the field sooner rather than later. We've really only seen chapter one and it's a mixed bag. I'm anxious to see what they produce in 19.

Edited by LSHMEAB
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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I've definitely seen "they'll get 5 years no matter what PD." I would assume that infers that they're not gonna go 0-16, but I've heard it.

 

I think fans in general have a strong affinity for Beane and McDermott. Probably Beane to a greater extent. They SEEM to be running the organization "professionally" compared to year's past. That emotional investment SEEMS to be so strong that they're willing to give them a long leash "no matter what." 

 

I believe they would have a change of heart if the product is a disaster, but that's my perception of the whole "5 years no matter what thing."

 

I think they've done some good things and some bad things. I think McDermott has done an outstanding job with the talent at hand. What's different about this season is that the cap hell thing is over. Beane has had the ability to bring in his guys. So while it's not playoffs or bust, progress is a must.

Truth is he had the ability last year.... and basically every offensive FA he brought in was a flop.

 

 

Needs to hit on them this year..... The offense can not suck for the third year in a row. 

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Well I don't think it's unreasonable. 2020 is year 4 of the new regime and year 3 of their hand picked franchise QB. If they aren't contending for a Super Bowl by that point what are we waiting for?

Fans seem to think it takes 5 years for your team to compete for a Super Bowl. It's a ridiculous take.

 

The Rams did it in two years under their new regime. Same goes for the Eagles, and Bears..... But in Buffalo you need 5.

 

Edited by ScottLaw
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2 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I've definitely seen "they'll get 5 years no matter what PD." I would assume that infers that they're not gonna go 0-16, but I've heard it.

 

I think fans in general have a strong affinity for Beane and McDermott. Probably Beane to a greater extent. They SEEM to be running the organization "professionally" compared to year's past. That emotional investment SEEMS to be so strong that they're willing to give them a long leash "no matter what." 

 

I believe they would have a change of heart if the product is a disaster, but that's my perception of the whole "5 years no matter what thing."

 

I think they've done some good things and some bad things. I think McDermott has done an outstanding job with the talent at hand. What's different about this season is that the cap hell thing is over. Beane has had the ability to bring in his guys. So while it's not playoffs or bust, progress is a must.

 

Well if certain people have said that then that's silly. No matter what means tome that any circumstances can happen whether it be 0-16 or 3-13 and still stay for5 years. All the ones that I saw were inferring that they could stay for 5 years with some sort of success. For example 10-6 the next 2 seasons and barely missing the playoffs, in which case I can absolutely see them staying for 5 years.

 

A bad record for the next 2 season(in which no matter what means), then most likely not.

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16 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Truth is he had the ability last year.... and basically every offensive FA he brought in was a flop.

 

 

Needs to hit on them this year..... The offense can not suck for the third year in a row. 

 

 

They have a terrible track record in terms of offensive acquisitions. They've also produced very solid drafts, almost exclusively with defensive players. That's the problem. Agree 100% that they need to have dramatically improved their batting average WRT this offseason's offensive signings. At the end of the day, so much will depend on the first round of the 2018 draft. If Allen and to a lesser extent Edmunds pan out, the Bills will be in good shape. If not, it's gonna be a long couple of years.

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7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Well I don't think it's unreasonable. 2020 is year 4 of the new regime and year 3 of their hand picked franchise QB. If they aren't contending for a Super Bowl by that point what are we waiting for?

You missed my sarcasm. 

 

Everyone will be disappointed if they aren’t contending. Just as we are every year they aren’t contending. 

 

As to what we are waiting for, that’s a personal choice. I’ll be waiting for the next opportunity to contend, just as I do every year. Can’t speak for anyone else.

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22 hours ago, eball said:

 

If "Billsy" means a top 5 CB, starting WR, starting LB, and starting LT -- hitting on 4 of 6 picks -- I hope their drafts continue to be "Billsy" for years to come!

 

This post is just silly. It's a perfect example of a Bills fan pretending that all is rainbows and unicorns in the Bills universe.

 

The reality in the NFL is that ...

  • Round 1.   White is the only 2017 draftee who has developed into a truly good NFL player.  However, to get him, the Bills passed on two QB prospects who seem very likely to become great QBs.  Passing on a top QB prospect to take a DB prospect to replace the top DB that they didn't re-sign is easily the most "Billsy" thing about the 2017 draft.
  • Round 2.  Zay Jones remains a borderline bust.  He was the fourth WR taken in 2017, and hasn't shown very much.  He was only a starter last season because the Bills had nobody better in a WR corps that wasn't NFL caliber by any standard.  The addition of modest FA veteran WRs may push him out of the starting lineup.
  • Round 3.  Being the best starter on one of the worst OLs -- if not the worst -- in the NFL doesn't say much about Dion Dawkins, particularly since his play regressed from "adequate" as a rookie to "poor" as a sophomore.  Dawkins will have to improve significantly to remain a starter in 2019.
  • Round 4.  Matt Milano has been a decent starter on a modest defense.  He's undersized, so he might or might not be a starter on most other NFL defenses.  It would depend largely upon defensive scheme and talent level.  He's the second best pick for the Bills in 2017.
  • Round 5.  Nathan Peterman was not merely a wasted draft pick; he was one of the few draftees taken on Day Three who could be described as a bust.   Nobody really expects QBs taken in Round 5 to ever be more than an adequate backup so being bust is a special distinction, but Peterman was far worse. He was easily the most incompetent backup QB in 2017 and 2018, if not in the  last decade or more. 

Both Dawkins and Jones are probably saved from being cut because of their lack of top competition and their low rookie contract salaries.  If the Bills had better players in their units or if they were more expensive, they might both be out the door.  Neither would be good enough to make numerous other NFL rosters or to be starters on most other NFL teams.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, SoTier said:

Round 4.  Matt Milano has been a decent starter on a modest defense.  He's undersized, so he might or might not be a starter on most other NFL defenses.  It would depend largely upon defensive scheme and talent level

 

If you want to know why people have trouble taking you seriously, it's because you stretch to make negative points like this.

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Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

But the owners don't always know. Some are clueless as to what a good head coach looks like.... can you give me an example of a GOOD HC coach who was mediocre for 4 straight years, was fired and succeeded else where in the modern day NFL? 

 

And no way they'll continue to be here if Allen fails. If Allen is sucking, the offense in all likelihood is struggling. 3-4 straight years of bad offensive numbers and more offensive coaches fired and they'll all surely be gone. 

 

 

Well, of course the owners don't always know. I didn't say that there's never been a failure with this model. But a smart owner should have a pretty good idea most of the time. The problem is that these days 

 

What does being fired have to do with anything? Has McDermott been fired as an HC I don't know about? You are just putting that in there for no reason whatsoever to make it harder to find guys who fit. 

 

In any case, Carroll and Belichick fit your qualifications. And since being fired has nothing to do with it ... yet again, look at Jason Garrett and Kubiak as well.

 

Now try and find guys who fit your own requirements ... "a GOOD HC coach who was mediocre for 4 straight years ... and succeeded ... in the modern day NFL" ... and was kept around longer and failed? There aren't many because of the quick trigger fingers that modern management has adopted. So we've got four examples of success and not all that many examples of failure. It's a strategy that has worked out a good percentage of the few times it's been tried, even in the modern NFL.

 

Typically, though, in a league where most teams aren't run all that well, this promising strategy which succeeded so often in the past hasn't been used that often despite a pretty decent success rate when tried in the old days and in modern days as well.

 

And your absolutism about what happens if Allen fails is just wrong. That's one possible outcome if Allen doesn't succeed. There are others.

Edited by Thurman#1

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1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

This post is just silly. It's a perfect example of a Bills fan pretending that all is rainbows and unicorns in the Bills universe.

 

The reality in the NFL is that ...

  • Round 1.   White is the only 2017 draftee who has developed into a truly good NFL player.  However, to get him, the Bills passed on two QB prospects who seem very likely to become great QBs.  Passing on a top QB prospect to take a DB prospect to replace the top DB that they didn't re-sign is easily the most "Billsy" thing about the 2017 draft.
  • Round 2.  Zay Jones remains a borderline bust.  He was the fourth WR taken in 2017, and hasn't shown very much.  He was only a starter last season because the Bills had nobody better in a WR corps that wasn't NFL caliber by any standard.  The addition of modest FA veteran WRs may push him out of the starting lineup.
  • Round 3.  Being the best starter on one of the worst OLs -- if not the worst -- in the NFL doesn't say much about Dion Dawkins, particularly since his play regressed from "adequate" as a rookie to "poor" as a sophomore.  Dawkins will have to improve significantly to remain a starter in 2019.
  • Round 4.  Matt Milano has been a decent starter on a modest defense.  He's undersized, so he might or might not be a starter on most other NFL defenses.  It would depend largely upon defensive scheme and talent level.  He's the second best pick for the Bills in 2017.
  • Round 5.  Nathan Peterman was not merely a wasted draft pick; he was one of the few draftees taken on Day Three who could be described as a bust.   Nobody really expects QBs taken in Round 5 to ever be more than an adequate backup so being bust is a special distinction, but Peterman was far worse. He was easily the most incompetent backup QB in 2017 and 2018, if not in the  last decade or more. 

Both Dawkins and Jones are probably saved from being cut because of their lack of top competition and their low rookie contract salaries.  If the Bills had better players in their units or if they were more expensive, they might both be out the door.  Neither would be good enough to make numerous other NFL rosters or to be starters on most other NFL teams.

 

 

 

You make some good points but I do disagree wrt Dawkins. I am not saying that he had a great year but the NFL is a league that seems hard up for blockers, and I think Dawkins could land a spot on most teams. I also see him as likely to improve with better players next to him.

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14 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

If you want to know why people have trouble taking you seriously, it's because you stretch to make negative points like this.

 

I just wonder if he's serious or not with that statement.

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