The Difference Between Best Player Available vs. Drafting For Need (Sal Capaccio Explains...)

[Kirby Jackson]

9 minutes ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

And the tiers have position of need! Bet you my life savings they don't draft Devin White. What were they going to say post draft last year? They needed an MLB but had to settle for the next best MLB Edmunds who they thought was a major drop off?

 

They didn't really need a QB but whoa JA was there. BPA AND NEED!

No, they kick Edmunds outside and let him play as a rusher or covering guys. You let him play in space. A LB Corp of Milano-White- Edmunds with Alexander playing as a rush guy in passing situations raises the talent. That’s not a crazy thought at all. 

[KD in CA]

How about we just agree to take BPoN?

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Beane's press conference was total BS and the dumb ass slow witted Buffalo media didn't call him on it.  Of course he drafted for need and gave up multiple picks to do it.  Fortunately this year they have needs at every spot except Safety, CB, and QB.  SO they can draft for need and BPA.

[Bing Bong]

42 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

No, they kick Edmunds outside and let him play as a rusher or covering guys. You let him play in space. A LB Corp of Milano-White- Edmunds with Alexander playing as a rush guy in passing situations raises the talent. That’s not a crazy thought at all. 

It's just so crazy it might work!

 

Nah Edmunds might be a monster OLB

Edited January 24, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

[Augie]

8 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Beane's press conference was total BS and the dumb ass slow witted Buffalo media didn't call him on it.  Of course he drafted for need and gave up multiple picks to do it.  Fortunately this year they have needs at every spot except Safety, CB, and QB.  SO they can draft for need and BPA.

 

Oh, this is very cool! You have access to their draft board? That would be the only way you know who their BPA is. I want access - how did you do it? 

 

You can’t say whether it’s need or BPA unless you know they went away from their board. And you don’t. Now, do similar grades lean toward what might fit your need or scheme better? Sure. 

[Jay_Fixit]

BPA is BPA.

 

It’s simple.

 

”Ohhh but what if BPA is a QB and you already have one???”

 

Grow the ***** up.

[Kirby Jackson]

10 minutes ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

It's just so crazy it might work!

 

Nah Edmunds might be a monster OLB

I actually think that might be Edmunds best position. I think that he gets caught up a little in traffic. He’s best when he has space. He reminds me a little of Anthony Barr but I think Edmunds is more of a playmaker. 

[Nextmanup]

5 hours ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

Brandon Beane’s comments on drafting continue to confuse me.  He had been firm in saying “we don’t draft for need” and that draft for need get in trouble.  He has said the famous cliche “best player available.”

 

But didn’t Beane draft for need and not BPA last year?  He traded up for Josh Allen and Edmunds because QB sand MLB were a giant need!  If he was drafting BPA, then he would have taken the best player available at 21 and 22.  But he said in his presser at the Senior Bowl that it was drafting for need because he traded up.  Huh?  Didn’t he trade up to....you guessed it, draft for need?

 

In fact, I’d argue that most teams draft for need.  If they didn’t, then we’d see more team draft 2 QB’s in 1 draft or draft a QB high behind an established QB.  This would be like the Jets drafting Haskins because he’s the highest ranked prospect available when they pick.  They won’t do it because they already have a young QB they drafted the year earlier.   Also when teams set up their board doesn’t need come into play with the rankings?

 

One time the Bills did draft BPA, was the selection of CJ Spiller in 2009.  The pick was lauded by nearly everyone in the media as foolish considering they already had a Pro Bowl RB in Marshawn Lynch and a solid backup in Fred Jackson.  Yet the sick was clearly a BPA.

 

I get the idea of drafting for need and best player available, however I think in most circumstances teams draft based on their needs. 

 

Can anyone explain what he means by drafting for need or drafting best player available.  Because it seems like the Bills drafted for need last year, and that it happens all of the time.  

"Laud" means "to praise."

I think you meant the opposite here.

 

 

[row_33]

2 hours ago, Augie said:

 

That’s some might stiff competition!!! 

 

Maybin?

 

[Augie]

1 minute ago, row_33 said:

 

Maybin?

 

Mike Williams? 

[row_33]

5 minutes ago, Augie said:

Mike Williams? 

 

In hindsight I believe that little more than 10 seconds actively talking to Maybin would have revealed he really wasn’t into playing football

 

 

 

 

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

6 hours ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

Brandon Beane’s comments on drafting continue to confuse me.  He had been firm in saying “we don’t draft for need” and that draft for need get in trouble.  He has said the famous cliche “best player available.”

 

But didn’t Beane draft for need and not BPA last year?  He traded up for Josh Allen and Edmunds because QB sand MLB were a giant need!  If he was drafting BPA, then he would have taken the best player available at 21 and 22.  But he said in his presser at the Senior Bowl that it was drafting for need because he traded up.  Huh?  Didn’t he trade up to....you guessed it, draft for need?

 

In fact, I’d argue that most teams draft for need.  If they didn’t, then we’d see more team draft 2 QB’s in 1 draft or draft a QB high behind an established QB.  This would be like the Jets drafting Haskins because he’s the highest ranked prospect available when they pick.  They won’t do it because they already have a young QB they drafted the year earlier.   Also when teams set up their board doesn’t need come into play with the rankings?

 

One time the Bills did draft BPA, was the selection of CJ Spiller in 2009.  The pick was lauded by nearly everyone in the media as foolish considering they already had a Pro Bowl RB in Marshawn Lynch and a solid backup in Fred Jackson.  Yet the sick was clearly a BPA.

 

I get the idea of drafting for need and best player available, however I think in most circumstances teams draft based on their needs. 

 

Can anyone explain what he means by drafting for need or drafting best player available.  Because it seems like the Bills drafted for need last year, and that it happens all of the time.  

Both players were probably high on their board around where they took them. Just because Walter Football, Draftek and Mel Kiper don't think so doesn't mean the Bills didn't.

[Augie]

6 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

In hindsight I believe that little more than 10 seconds actively talking to Maybin would have revealed he really wasn’t into playing football

 

 

 

 

 

I’m sure he knew all the right things to say. I honestly hope that he’s happy with his art. To each their own. 

[row_33]

3 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I’m sure he knew all the right things to say. I honestly hope that he’s happy with his art. To each their own. 

 

Lest we forget...

 

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, Augie said:

 

I’m sure he knew all the right things to say. I honestly hope that he’s happy with his art. To each their own. 

Yeah. I talked to a teammate of Maybin's in a bar once. Played linebacker so he was pretty close to him in terms of the locker room. Guy was pretty tipsy and told me that Maybin was a great guy but had little interest in football and wasn't nearly as good as his junior season numbers suggested. Said the rest of his defensive teammates were shocked he was taken in the first round, let alone that high. 

 

Conclusion; get the prospects teammates drunk and find out what they have to say.

[BillyWhiteShows]

23 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

"Laud" means "to praise."

I think you meant the opposite here.

 

 

 

I think I meant panned....but you get the gist 

[Just Joshin']

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It’s not. They had other options to fill that role as the draft went along (Warner, Leonard, etc..). I can promise that a team drafts on BPA. They have tiers of players and may move up or down depending on where they have guys. In a situation like Edmunds, they indicated that they were shocked he was still there. That tells me he was graded highly to them and there was a drop off to the next player. Fitting a need was a bonus. They went to get him though because of the quality of the player not the position. It is possible that they take a MLB (Devin White) at 9 this year.

The tiers are the key.  I think when people hear BPA they believe there is a ranked list and they draft based on the list.

 

The reality is that players are grouped into tiers and within the tiers they will look at need.  In the early rounds there are less players in a group, later rounds more players.  This is why later rounds look more like need because there are more players to select within a tier.

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

Lest we forget...

 

 

Sometimes I try very hard to do EXACTLY that! 

[row_33]

We will get what we get and we will like it

 

 

Just now, Augie said:

 

Sometimes I try very hard to do EXACTLY that! 

 

Any interviewer worth 2 percent of their salary would crack through fake buttkissing answers easily to get to the inner person .

 

[BillyWhiteShows]

41 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

BPA is BPA.

 

It’s simple.

 

”Ohhh but what if BPA is a QB and you already have one???”

 

Grow the ***** up.

 

What Im saying is that contrary to what Beane and other have said, need is a factor in draft selections.  Some believe that team draft exclusively by best player available.  

 

Myself and others here don’t buy that entirely.  I think you take the best player available given the needs on the roster.  

3 minutes ago, Just Joshin' said:

The tiers are the key.  I think when people hear BPA they believe there is a ranked list and they draft based on the list.

 

The reality is that players are grouped into tiers and within the tiers they will look at need.  In the early rounds there are less players in a group, later rounds more players.  This is why later rounds look more like need because there are more players to select within a tier.

 

But aren’t these tiers partially, or exclusively, based on need?  You obviously wouldn’t put a LT in the top tier, of you already have a franchise player under contract long term etc.

 

This was my point.

[Augie]

1 minute ago, row_33 said:

We will get what we get and we will like it

 

 

 

Any interviewer worth 2 percent of their salary would crack through fake buttkissing answers easily to get to the inner person .

 

 

As pointed out elsewhere, there may be more to be learned by interviewing the people around the player. I’m NOT arguing Maybin was a good idea, if that’s what you think. There has not been a day in my life where I thought that was the case.

 

But I honestly do hope he’s living a happy life now. 

[row_33]

4 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

As pointed out elsewhere, there may be more to be learned by interviewing the people around the player. I’m NOT arguing Maybin was a good idea, if that’s what you think. There has not been a day in my life where I thought that was the case.

 

But I honestly do hope he’s living a happy life now. 

 

Thats generous of you

 

[Augie]

Just now, row_33 said:

 

Thats generous of you

 

 

Life is more than the game. Many people have done much worse. Even if it was enormously disappointing. Hating is not healthy for anyone IMO. So I do my best. 

[row_33]

5 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Life is more than the game. Many people have done much worse. Even if it was enormously disappointing. Hating is not healthy for anyone IMO. So I do my best. 

 

Well played

 

as one who conducts interrogations I can’t believe the process was so slack that a guy would show up with no motivation to play the game

 

then again I remember some high draft picks turned out to be hippies who packed it in at training camp during that era

 

[BuffAlone]

7 minutes ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

What Im saying is that contrary to what Beane and other have said, need is a factor in draft selections.  Some believe that team draft exclusively by best player available.  

 

Myself and others here don’t buy that entirely.  I think you take the best player available given the needs on the roster.  

 

But aren’t these tiers partially, or exclusively, based on need?  You obviously wouldn’t put a LT in the top tier, of you already have a franchise player under contract long term etc.

 

This was my point.

Beane has said from day one, and held true, and swears that that's who

 he'll always be. Why are you doubting him? He's given you no reason to say " Contrary to what he says " need is as important as BPA? So, why is this a thing?You work for CNN?Fox? State your case , man. This is an ugly thread based on nothing but your lips. In all due respect...

[row_33]

Bears and Raiders were left high and dry

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

Well played

 

as one who conducts interrogations I can’t believe the process was so slack that a guy would show up with no motivation to play the game

 

then again I remember some high draft picks turned out to be hippies who packed it in at training camp during that era

 

 

Oh yes, I’m more disappointed with those “professionals” assigned to the background checks than I am the player, and even they just made errors that disappoint. Incompetence is not the same as evil. Sad either way, but two very different things. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

6 hours ago, JÂy RÛßeÒ said:

Donte Whitner @ 8 (1 pick after the top safety had come off the board) = drafting for need

Even though Haloti Ngata was on the board, the 2005 Bills finished 31st against the run after letting Pat Williams go, and they could already see Tim Anderson 3rd Round 2005 was a bust. 

[Big Turk]

6 hours ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

I get what you are saying, it just sounds very confusing.  Based on what you are saying, there’s really not that much difference between the two.  Unless you pull a Buddy Nix and draft EJ Manuel in the 1st round 

It's not confusing at all.  Typically they group players together and in a situation where all the players in a group might be available, they take the one they feel fits their needs best.  However, they are not going to go down to a group below them just to grab a certain position because they aren't in the higher group of players.

 

[row_33]

Whitner was fine, it was taking 3 DBs with the first four picks that was the problem

 

 

 

 

[iinii]

4 hours ago, Utah John said:

Newspaper writers have to write something in the offseason and it's part of Beane's job to provide something to write about.  Never never never believe anything a GM says before the drat.  It is a complete disadvantage for them to give any hint about what their real plans are.

Exactly! Some people on this board have sworn that since XYZ said something in a presser it was the GOSPEL and we should never doubt the validity. It absolutely boggles my mind how some can be so lost, shall we say. 

[BillyWhiteShows]

1 hour ago, row_33 said:

Whitner was fine, it was taking 3 DBs with the first four picks that was the problem

 

 

 

 

But some might call that drafting the “best player available”

[Virgil]

I think you have to add two caveats to BPA.  It means you don’t reach for a player because of need when their value doesn’t line up with your pick. 

 

And there are positions that are locked in and not on your board before certain rounds.  

 

If you follow those two rules, you can still comply with BPA

[row_33]

59 minutes ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

But some might call that drafting the “best player available”

 

It wasn’t at all.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

What Im saying is that contrary to what Beane and other have said, need is a factor in draft selections.  Some believe that team draft exclusively by best player available.  

 

Myself and others here don’t buy that entirely.  I think you take the best player available given the needs on the roster.  

 

But aren’t these tiers partially, or exclusively, based on need?  You obviously wouldn’t put a LT in the top tier, of you already have a franchise player under contract long term etc.

 

This was my point.

 

 

Thing is, you're not the GM. Beane is. 

 

He's making this point again and again and again because he believes in it, deeply. He drafts BPA.

 

Yes, position is a factor, especially when you need a QB, or when a position is less valuable to a team. You don't draft a long-snapper in the 1st round even if he's the greatest long-snapper the NFL has ever seen. Some positions are more important than others, some less. And that factors in. It's not a black and white discussion. There are subtleties and distinctions. But what Beane is telling you is what his priorities are. You might want him to take into account the needs of the roster. He's not interested in what others think he should do. He's got priorities.

 

Here's an intelligent piece by Buscaglia that just came out:

 

 

 

"3) Drafting for need vs. value explained further

 

"- Just a day after the 2018 season ended for the Bills, Beane made a bit of a buzzworthy statement about not drafting for need, and that he refuses to do that as long as he's the GM of the team. However, it's a more nuanced discussion than it is cut and dry. So, with almost a month passed between then and the Senior Bowl, Beane opened up the conversation a bit. His justification is that -- especially in the first round -- drafting at a spot for need only and reaching for that player with other, more talented players at different positions available is how teams can get themselves into trouble. He then brought up the situation of last year and had they stayed at 21 and taken a quarterback, it would have been them reaching to fill a need -- but because they moved up to get Josh Allen at seventh overall, they had the need and the value meet eye-to-eye. I think there's even more to the equation than Beane mentioned while he was keeping it more general, in the sense of positional weight and how much each spot should be valued by a team -- which ultimately factors into the full value of the prospect himself. All of that sounds great in theory, but having the gumption to pull it off in a pressurized situation is something Beane has to stand by. I asked him off to the side about that side of it, when he's on the clock and the potential of passing on someone that helps them right away for someone that's of higher value to them organizationally. His response:

 

" 'Well sometimes that’s not always the most popular decision and maybe not even in the building, and obviously with the fans, but you know, coaches, they want good players to help them execute and do their job better. But again, my job is to bring the best players that I can to the Buffalo Bills to give Sean and his staff. And if you start reaching, it may not hurt you immediately, but over time, you’re taking less talented players, your team is going to suffer a little bit.' "

 

"As the first round goes, there isn't a real way to gauge what the Bills did in the first round in 2018 -- Beane's only draft in Buffalo -- because of the move up to get those two players at where they valued each player. We'll get a more definitive gauge of what the Bills do at ninth overall, and how it lines up with this draft theory."

 

https://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/5-takeaways-from-buffalo-bills-gm-brandon-beane-at-the-2019-senior-bowl

 

 

Buscaglia uses the word "nuanced," and that's right, it's a nuanced discussion. But treating BPA as the most important factor is a strong, strong belief for Beane. It's in his DNA. That's why he harps on it over and over again.

 

 

 

Edited January 24, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, row_33 said:

Whitner was fine, it was taking 3 DBs with the first four picks that was the problem

 

 

 

Whitner was horrible value where he was picked. 

 

If they had to have him, they should have traded back, snagged some extra picks and picked him in the early 20s. He'd have been there. And people wouldn't have had the unreasonable expectations for him that they had because he was picked so early.

[row_33]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Whitner was horrible value where he was picked. 

 

If they had to have him, they should have traded back, snagged some extra picks and picked him in the early 20s. He'd have been there. And people wouldn't have had the unreasonable expectations for him that they had because he was picked so early.

 

And then they took two more DBs right behind him, with so many other needs to fill

 

 

[djp14150]

You don’t draft boa ever...

 

you draft based on need first ...if you have 3 needs then the boa comes into play.

 

the times you take boa is if a player falls like a top 10 player is still on the board at 25.

 

some positions you only need 1 pkayer so teams aren’t going to keep drafting the same position ..so buffalo just drafted a Qb , cb and mlb in the 1st. They aren’t using their 2019 1st on those positions.  If they think McCoy is fine in 2019..they aren’t using a first on a RB. Pkayers you sign as ufas..those positionsshouldnt be used on you 1st because you signed a pkayer to fill this role.

[BillsFan1988]

4 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Yeah. I talked to a teammate of Maybin's in a bar once. Played linebacker so he was pretty close to him in terms of the locker room. Guy was pretty tipsy and told me that Maybin was a great guy but had little interest in football and wasn't nearly as good as his junior season numbers suggested. Said the rest of his defensive teammates were shocked he was taken in the first round, let alone that high. 

 

Conclusion; get the prospects teammates drunk and find out what they have to say.

Maybin was a complete bust before we even pkd him. He failed my eye test big time. I almost lost it when we took him over Orakpo.

[MJS]

It's never truly BPA. If you have a franchise QB you don't draft a QB in the first round if that is the BPA.

 

It is BPA within reason and considering the makup of your team. No matter who you draft, there has to be a slot they fit into on your team or it is a wasted pick.

 

But, the theory of filling holes in free agency so you can draft BPA in the draft holds true. You don't want to go into the draft with super glaring needs or you will start reaching for players and pass on potential stars.