Playoffs - ESPN Playoff Machine

[ngbills]

We have been here before. Bills could wind up one of the bottom teams in the league or with a lot of help sneaking in the playoffs. How likely is it? There are 5 locks so one spot is up for grabs and its not as hard as it seems. The Bills have one of the easiest schedules but rely on others slipping.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

If you select the defensive ranking criteria the Bills win out and get the help needed to make the playoffs. 

If you select the offensive ranking criteria the Bills lose out and finish with the 4th pick in the draft.

 

Looking at the schedule - Bills have 2 vs Fins, Jets, Lions and Pats. All but Pats very winnable games. Playing with the simulator there are lots of roads to get in. But one loss and they are done. Feels like about 90% of the last 15-20 years but at least technically a chance. 

[jethro_tull]

If they win out, they deserve to be a wild card despite their previous lopsided losses.  

[row_33]

gotta climb over 7 teams for that 2nd WC spot,

 

not sure on the schedule balance of AFC vs AFC to make it even harder if the 7 play each other a few times

 

 

[ngbills]

13 minutes ago, jethro_tull said:

If they win out, they deserve to be a wild card despite their previous lopsided losses.  

Shows in same ways how easy it is to make the playoffs. You will have the top teams but the fight for the last 2-3 spots is not too far from the fight for the bottom 3 spots.

12 minutes ago, row_33 said:

gotta climb over 7 teams for that 2nd WC spot,

 

not sure on the schedule balance of AFC vs AFC to make it even harder if the 7 play each other a few times

 

 

Just playing with the ESPN tool it was way easier to get the Bills in the playoffs than I expected. Even as simple as all home teams win out, but the Bills win vs Pats and Dolphins on road and they are on. So Bills win out, not much of a stretch for other teams ahead of them to fall. 

[Phil The Thrill]

The problem is the Bills have a lot of losses in the AFC, I think even at 9-7 winning a tiebreaker will be really hard.  Playoffs are pretty much out of the question, but I’m just hoping to see continued improvement from Allen

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Don't people know about the SEARCH function?

 

 

 

 

Go ahead sour pusses and give me a confused or sad  "like" for pointing out the duplication . 

 

[eball]

I said it in another thread but I'll go ahead and guarantee the Bills get in if they win out and finish 9-7.  Enough will happen elsewhere.  Of course, the Bills are not good enough to look past anyone so they need to take it one at a time.  Thankfully, their coach is of a similar mindset.  I think yesterday's loss by the Fish was huge; the Bills can hopefully take advantage and ride the momentum they've accumulated.  Plus, they typically own Tannehill.

[Warcodered]

38 minutes ago, jethro_tull said:

If they win out, they deserve to be a wild card despite their previous lopsided losses.  

I agree not that they still won't miss it but a team that wins 7 in a row to close out the regular season should definitely be in.

[row_33]

22 minutes ago, eball said:

I said it in another thread but I'll go ahead and guarantee the Bills get in if they win out and finish 9-7.  Enough will happen elsewhere.  Of course, the Bills are not good enough to look past anyone so they need to take it one at a time.  Thankfully, their coach is of a similar mindset.  I think yesterday's loss by the Fish was huge; the Bills can hopefully take advantage and ride the momentum they've accumulated.  Plus, they typically own Tannehill.

 

guarantee against what?

 

what are you staking with your guarantee?

 

 

[eball]

27 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

guarantee against what?

 

 

Just saying I believe they essentially control their own destiny because enough other chips will fall into place if they win out.

 

27 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

what are you staking with your guarantee?

 

 

Not a damn thing.

 

[row_33]

10 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Just saying I believe they essentially control their own destiny because enough other chips will fall into place if they win out.

 

 

Not a damn thing.

 

 

 

that's a pretty ignorant definition of a guarantee

 

is that how SJWs treat the term "guarantee"

 

 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

The Houston loss is such killer, probably going to cost is . Our biggest problem is having losses to the team's in front of us.

 

 

[eball]

4 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

that's a pretty ignorant definition of a guarantee

 

is that how SJWs treat the term "guarantee"

 

 

Eh.  Probably a misuse of the word but I think everyone gets the point.  I can't control the outcome but I think I know what would happen.

 

No idea what an "SJW" is.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

The Houston loss is such killer, probably going to cost is . Our biggest problem is having losses to the team's in front of us.

 

Houston should / could win the Div. 

 

Indy will be the haunted game.

 

Ravens and Chargers hurt as well.   

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Just now, ShadyBillsFan said:

Houston should / could win the Div. 

 

Indy will be the haunted game.

 

Ravens and Chargers hurt as well.   

 

could be but I was referring to the fact that we should have won the Houston game. We got killed by Indy.

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

could be but I was referring to the fact that we should have won the Houston game. We got killed by Indy.

 

 

Derek Anderson 3 INT's and a Lost Fumble ....   

 

I'd have rather lost with Nate.   

 

Per this topic ,,,,   IF we are competing against WC teams ....  If Houston gets the crown then they are not in that equation 

[transplantbillsfan]

Here's our problem:

 

The Colts and Ravens beat us.

 

Obviously, our biggest problem, is winning out.  More specifically, it's beating New England in New England.

 

But even if all of that fell into place, I think our only hope is ending up in a 3 team tie somehow with some combination of the Titans and the Colts/Ravens and hope the chips fall where they will.

 

If the Titans end up in a tie with the Colts, divisional tiebreakers are applied first and we just have to hope the Titans have a better divisional record than the Colts, giving us the edge because then the Colts would be eliminated and then the Titans would be eliminated because we beat them.

 

I know a lot of people think the Ravens are the likely 6 seed, but I don't know why.  Anyone look at their schedule?  @Falcons,  @Chiefs, Bucs, @Chargers, Browns.

 

I think they're actually fairly likely to lose 3 of those.

[NewEra]

5 hours ago, ngbills said:

We have been here before. Bills could wind up one of the bottom teams in the league or with a lot of help sneaking in the playoffs. How likely is it? There are 5 locks so one spot is up for grabs and its not as hard as it seems. The Bills have one of the easiest schedules but rely on others slipping.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

If you select the defensive ranking criteria the Bills win out and get the help needed to make the playoffs. 

If you select the offensive ranking criteria the Bills lose out and finish with the 4th pick in the draft.

 

Looking at the schedule - Bills have 2 vs Fins, Jets, Lions and Pats. All but Pats very winnable games. Playing with the simulator there are lots of roads to get in. But one loss and they are done. Feels like about 90% of the last 15-20 years but at least technically a chance. 

We beat the titans.  The titans beat the pats.  We “can” win that game ?

[nero1]

Interesting  to note, Patriots have two high quality opponents coming up- Vikings and Steelers -.They cannot afford a stumble against Miami. If so that would set up a division deciding game between us and them. Wouldn't that be a hoot?!!!

[transplantbillsfan]

24 minutes ago, nero1 said:

Interesting  to note, Patriots have two high quality opponents coming up- Vikings and Steelers -.They cannot afford a stumble against Miami. If so that would set up a division deciding game between us and them. Wouldn't that be a hoot?!!!

 

It's just such a pipedream to have the Patriots lose 3 of their 4 remaining games that aren't against us PLUS lose against us.

 

If that happens, I bet Brady retires.

[QCity]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Here's our problem:

 

 

 

Our problem is that we aren't going to win out.

[Warcodered]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

It's just such a pipedream to have the Patriots lose 3 of their 4 remaining games that aren't against us PLUS lose against us.

 

If that happens, I bet Brady retires.

Wouldn't that be a great way for that to happen though??

 

If they managed to go 9-7 it would really suck for a team to win 7 in a row and miss the playoffs.

Though at the same time if that did happen that team would be pretty damn hungry next season.

[26CornerBlitz]

6 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Play-O-FFS 

 

Same answer!

[JinxedBill1]

So your saying there is a chance!!

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, QCity said:

 

Our problem is that we aren't going to win out.

 

Yeah, I doubt we will either, but the reality here is that we have the easiest schedule in the NFL on the back half here. I actually believe we'll end up 7-9, possibly 8-8.

 

But aren't you used to this yet? Going into December. Realistically pretty much no hope of playoffs but mathematically still alive.

 

"One more week!!!"

 

It's the Holiday season of the 21st century Bills fan.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

9 hours ago, nero1 said:

Interesting  to note, Patriots have two high quality opponents coming up- Vikings and Steelers -.They cannot afford a stumble against Miami. If so that would set up a division deciding game between us and them. Wouldn't that be a hoot?!!!

 

all in !!! Hope this happens !!

 

 

[longtimebillsfan]

16 hours ago, ngbills said:

We have been here before. Bills could wind up one of the bottom teams in the league or with a lot of help sneaking in the playoffs. How likely is it? There are 5 locks so one spot is up for grabs and its not as hard as it seems. The Bills have one of the easiest schedules but rely on others slipping.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

If you select the defensive ranking criteria the Bills win out and get the help needed to make the playoffs. 

If you select the offensive ranking criteria the Bills lose out and finish with the 4th pick in the draft.

 

Looking at the schedule - Bills have 2 vs Fins, Jets, Lions and Pats. All but Pats very winnable games. Playing with the simulator there are lots of roads to get in. But one loss and they are done. Feels like about 90% of the last 15-20 years but at least technically a chance. 

I believe they would need to win out.  If they take care of business they could win four of the five.  I am not convinced they can beat New England unless the Pats have nothing to play for in the last two games of the season. 

 

Wouldn't that be amazing if we make the playoffs two years in a row in similar fashion?

[billsredneck1]

34 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said:

I believe they would need to win out.  If they take care of business they could win four of the five.  I am not convinced they can beat New England unless the Pats have nothing to play for in the last two games of the season. 

 

Wouldn't that be amazing if we make the playoffs two years in a row in similar fashion?

the big thing is coming away with a win in miami.  if they use rb by committee, we could get a very good ground total and then we just need allen to make a few plays.

i actually think his stats will improve by the week.  get this one and we can settle in at home for a while.

 

we need a huge collective prayer for the vikings.  take out gronk and get after brady. 

[longtimebillsfan]

3 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

the big thing is coming away with a win in miami.  if they use rb by committee, we could get a very good ground total and then we just need allen to make a few plays.

i actually think his stats will improve by the week.  get this one and we can settle in at home for a while.

 

we need a huge collective prayer for the vikings.  take out gronk and get after brady. 

I like and agree with everything you said.  It is always nice to beat the Dolphins twice in one year.  If we don't make the playoffs, it would be nice to rank 2nd in our division.   This would be something to build on.

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, billsredneck1 said:

the big thing is coming away with a win in miami.  if they use rb by committee, we could get a very good ground total and then we just need allen to make a few plays.

i actually think his stats will improve by the week.  get this one and we can settle in at home for a while.

 

we need a huge collective prayer for the vikings.  take out gronk and get after brady. 

 

The Patriots definitely look like they're slowing down and they have a tough schedule to close the season, but them going 1-4 to close the season seems almost impossible to me.

 

The Wildcard is still our best shot.

[Rico]

22 hours ago, eball said:

 

Eh.  Probably a misuse of the word but I think everyone gets the point.  I can't control the outcome but I think I know what would happen.

 

No idea what an "SJW" is.

SJW = Social Justice Warrior. Since i don’t remember seeing you cry over poor Kaep  , I don’t think that applies to you. 

 

After checking out the playoff machine, I agree, Bills win out and they are in.

[Bob in STL]

I think they will likely finish 7-9 and draft somewhere in the 12 to 15 slot.

 

 Considering how bad this season started that would be a good record if it's Allen that starts all the games and finishes 4-2 after the bye week. 

 

off season we bring in some help at G, OT, WR, TE, RB, CB, LB, DE -- we have the draft and a lot of cap space to upgrade the roster. 

Edited November 27, 2018 by Bob in STL

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Get to 7 and 7 and we might still have a look. At this point, where we sat after week 2...if you tell me we are mathematically alive going into the NE game il take it. Get to 7-7 and this season is a positive. Please don’t be completely done before that Pats game and I’m all good. What it looked like after week two, il sign for “alive at Christmas”

[row_33]

51 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Get to 7 and 7 and we might still have a look. At this point, where we sat after week 2...if you tell me we are mathematically alive going into the NE game il take it. Get to 7-7 and this season is a positive. Please don’t be completely done before that Pats game and I’m all good. What it looked like after week two, il sign for “alive at Christmas”

 

sane way to look at it

 

see if 9 wins is good enough by then

 

 

[ndirish1978]

Wake me up to use this playoff simulator what we don't have a losing record. I'll save everyone the time: we lose to the Patriots and we're out unless the Broncos, Ravens and Titans all fall apart. We lose any game before then and you can flush every scenario down the toilet because we're not beating the Patriots.

Edited November 27, 2018 by ndirish1978

[billsredneck1]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The Patriots definitely look like they're slowing down and they have a tough schedule to close the season, but them going 1-4 to close the season seems almost impossible to me.

 

The Wildcard is still our best shot.

i realize chances are slim for the playoffs, but the show ain't over til the fat lady sings.  either way , if we do win out and miss out or lose one more we can go out on a positive note.

 

at least it doesn't look like we'll crap the bed like the first half and that's all i can hope for for guys like kyle and lorax. hope they come back.

[row_33]

9 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

i realize chances are slim for the playoffs, but the show ain't over til the fat lady sings.  either way , if we do win out and miss out or lose one more we can go out on a positive note.

 

at least it doesn't look like we'll crap the bed like the first half and that's all i can hope for for guys like kyle and lorax. hope they come back.

 

all improvement for the future will be welcome

 

hopefully give a good fight to the better opponents

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

It's actually a real shame this is what happened as it relates to our playoff chances considering the Jags play the Colts this week and we want the Jags to win 

[BobbyC81]

On 11/26/2018 at 9:53 AM, ngbills said:

We have been here before. Bills could wind up one of the bottom teams in the league or with a lot of help sneaking in the playoffs. How likely is it? There are 5 locks so one spot is up for grabs and its not as hard as it seems. The Bills have one of the easiest schedules but rely on others slipping.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

If you select the defensive ranking criteria the Bills win out and get the help needed to make the playoffs. 

If you select the offensive ranking criteria the Bills lose out and finish with the 4th pick in the draft.

 

Looking at the schedule - Bills have 2 vs Fins, Jets, Lions and Pats. All but Pats very winnable games. Playing with the simulator there are lots of roads to get in. But one loss and they are done. Feels like about 90% of the last 15-20 years but at least technically a chance. 

 

Can’t rely on Dalton this season as he’s on IR but Boyd is still playing.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

Just sitting here laughing because even after our awful start two wins on the bounce transformed me into a homer and I started looking up playoff possibilities lol.

 

It would be sooooooo good if we won out.