(hypothetical) Alabama vs. Bills spread

[jimmy10]

8 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Honest question, “how many Bama games have you seen this year?” I just ask because some people are acting like we are talking about “any” college team. With the exception of Clemson, Alabama may be 28.5 points better than any other team in college football. Their QB didn’t take a 4th quarter snap until last week. That was their toughest matchup. It was a 29-0 win, at night, in Baton Rouge. LSU was considered the 3rd best team in the country. 

 

Additionally, guys are developed at Alabama at a level that they aren’t at other schools. 48.3% of 5 star recruits that go to Alabama get picked in the 1st round. 17% of 5 star recruits that go elsewhere get picked in the 1st round. They had the number 1 recruiting class in the country 7 straight years until this past year!! They could land up to 10 5 stars next year!! 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/247sports.com/college/alabama/ContentGallery/Alabama-Football-Recruiting-Ten-5-star-recruits-that-could-end-up-at-Alabama--118308045/Amp/

 

The point is that they aren’t just some good college team. The gap from Alabama to the 3rd best team in college football is greater than the gap between the 3rd best team in the country and the 50th best team.

 

Kirbs, you’re one of my favorite posters here and have been for a long time. After Kirby Puckett, you’re probably my second-favorite Kirby in sports. Only the fluffy pink Nintendo character gives you a run for your money. 

 

That said, this just feels like rehashing the same lazy morning sports radio call-in show topic we hear every year. Can [terrible NFL team] even beat [great NCAA team]?

 

The answer is yes, every time. 

[Kirby Jackson]

42 minutes ago, jimmy10 said:

 

Kirbs, you’re one of my favorite posters here and have been for a long time. After Kirby Puckett, you’re probably my second-favorite Kirby in sports. Only the fluffy pink Nintendo character gives you a run for your money. 

 

That said, this just feels like rehashing the same lazy morning sports radio call-in show topic we hear every year. Can [terrible NFL team] even beat [great NCAA team]?

 

The answer is yes, every time. 

I appreciate the kind words!! You always have solid takes and the best avatar on the board.

 

The only reason that the topic is back up is because an actual Vegas oddsmaker set the line at 28.5. The point was to supposed to be that this conversation wasn’t started by some TBD poster’s opinion or a WGR caller. If this game were to be played the line would be 28.5 The entire conversation wasn’t supposed to be “can the Bills beat Alabama?” It was “can the Bills beat Alabama by 28.5 points?” I happen to think that it’s about 30-10. 

Edited November 9, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[Bing Bong]

9 hours ago, Ol Dirty B said:

I think a more interesting thread is who would win in a fight? Alabama Trent Richardson v NFL Trent Richardson v 2017 Trent Richardson. Make it a triple threat. I might take Alabama Trent.

I don't know why I'm having a ton of fun with this thread, because I find it so silly and am on the complete opposite end of the spectrum as you (I think it's a guaranteed *** whooping even if we were to cut our entire roster and play our practice squad and mess around with fun Wildcat plays lol.. it would be a fun relaxing Sunday for all Bills involved. Jerry Hughes would run in to take snaps and run over kids)

 

2017 Trent probably weighs 300 pounds I got him, you got Heavy Weight boxing champ v 2 Welter Weights!

[TroutDog]

18 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I guess for me, it’s more about the 28.5. If I were betting this game, I’d be betting Bama. The game would be something like 30-10 IMO. Alabama isn’t some college team that has some NFL players. They probably have 20-30 guys on that roster now that will be in the NFL and 15 or so guys that will be drafted in the 1st 2 days. Now, some of them are young but elite talents like Jeudy, Harris and Tua will make a few plays (even against our strong defense). Their OL has multiple guys that would start on our OL now (Williams and Pierschbacher). Their defense has a few stars as well (specifically Quinnen Williams). The Bills would do some scoring but I don’t see them winning by 29 or more.

Always appreciate your posts, Kirby. 

 

I’m a huge Bama fan as I used to live there, two of my nephews go there, my oldest son goes and and my middle son wants to go there. Given the connection, I have stayed up with them and use them as the successful team I root for. 

 

Now living back in the ROC, I still believe that we would trounce them. Bama’s D isn’t a ‘normal’ Bama D this year (too many preseason injuries, particularly at LB) and I believe our D would shut them down, for the most part.

 

it would be an enjoyable game to watch.

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, TroutDog said:

Always appreciate your posts, Kirby. 

 

I’m a huge Bama fan as I used to live there, two of my nephews go there, my oldest son goes and and my middle son wants to go there. Given the connection, I have stayed up with them and use them as the successful team I root for. 

 

Now living back in the ROC, I still believe that we would trounce them. Bama’s D isn’t a ‘normal’ Bama D this year (too many preseason injuries, particularly at LB) and I believe our D would shut them down, for the most part.

 

it would be an enjoyable game to watch.

Out of curiosity, score prediction? 

[Bing Bong]

28 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I appreciate the kind words!! You always have solid takes and the best avatar on the board.

  

The only reason that the topic is back up is because an actual Vegas oddsmaker set the line at 28.5. The point was to supposed to be that this conversation wasn’t started by some TBD poster’s opinion or a WGR caller. If this game were to be played the line would be 28.5 The entire conversation wasn’t supposed to be “can the Bills beat Alabama?” It was “can the Bills beat Alabama by 28.5 points?” I happen to think that it’s about 30-10. 

Avatars matter. I'd seriously consider a 50 point spread if Vegas knew what they were doing (they've been getting owned this year with the lines expecting less CFB like blowouts. NFL is going through a weird transition with aging quarterbacks in their final Super Sayan III stage, and younger quarterbacks not named Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, or Matt Ryan finally stepping up to compete against them.. all leads to a huge disparity until the old guard finally gets the heck out of the league and the Bills won't have to play in a league with 6 HOF quarterbacks playing suspiciously ageless.. YAYYY!) 

 

So Vegas is dumb and I'd bet my life savings on this spread. Only thing holding us back is Daboll calling more than 10 pass attempts.

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Out of curiosity, score prediction? 

 

I'd go 21-7 Bills. Bills up 21-0 early throwing against the Bama secondary, then McDermott trying to bleed the clock for the final 3 and a half quarters running up the middle for 1 yard x3 and then punting.

[dorquemada]

12 minutes ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

Avatars matter. I'd seriously consider a 50 point spread if Vegas knew what they were doing (they've been getting owned this year with the lines expecting less CFB like blowouts. NFL is going through a weird transition with aging quarterbacks in their final Super Sayan III stage, and younger quarterbacks not named Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, or Matt Ryan finally stepping up to compete against them.. all leads to a huge disparity until the old guard finally gets the heck out of the league and the Bills won't have to play in a league with 6 HOF quarterbacks playing suspiciously ageless.. YAYYY!) 

 

So Vegas is dumb and I'd bet my life savings on this spread. Only thing holding us back is Daboll calling more than 10 pass attempts.

 

forum user "PetermanThrew5Picks" thinks said Peterman will lead the Bills to a 50+ point win.  You realize picks are bad, right?

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

Avatars matter. I'd seriously consider a 50 point spread if Vegas knew what they were doing (they've been getting owned this year with the lines expecting less CFB like blowouts. NFL is going through a weird transition with aging quarterbacks in their final Super Sayan III stage, and younger quarterbacks not named Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, or Matt Ryan finally stepping up to compete against them.. all leads to a huge disparity until the old guard finally gets the heck out of the league and the Bills won't have to play in a league with 6 HOF quarterbacks playing suspiciously ageless.. YAYYY!) 

 

So Vegas is dumb and I'd bet my life savings on this spread. Only thing holding us back is Daboll calling more than 10 pass attempts.

Again, you think it’s 50, I think it’s 20. The people that do this for a living think it’s 28.5. They know WAY more than we do.

[dorquemada]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Again, you think it’s 50, I think it’s 20. The people that do this for a living think it’s 28.5. They know WAY more than we do.

 

They know more than we do, and are probably less enthralled with the unstoppable juggernaut that is the 2018 Buffalo Bills than the locals

[Victory Formation]

10-7 Bills

 

[ProcessAccepted]

19 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

King Kong easily as Godzilla has short arms and no lateral movement.

 

Give me Godzilla though against the Army as King Kong was downed by 1930s planes with propellers and Godzilla has the breath weapon.

Yeah but King Kong's hand eye coordination was suspect especially when you consider how bad he was at swatting those planes

[Bing Bong]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Again, you think it’s 50, I think it’s 20. The people that do this for a living think it’s 28.5. They know WAY more than we do.

True, but they've been getting killed on NFL gambling lines this year is all I'm saying.. relative to other years. Atyptical NFL seasons where blowouts or at least crazy high scoring is screwing up those "any given Sunday lines" of a 7 point game between a top team vs bottom.

 

And I don't expect them to have any metric for hypothetical college vs pro.. so I see it like the gambling line of Godzilla vs King Kong in ping pong.. how on Earth can they measure that. Same bookies that made ludicrous lines on Mayweather and McGregor, no one knows what their doing when their crossing over leagues.

Edited November 9, 2018 by PetermanThrew5Picks

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Bing Bong]

5 hours ago, dorquemada said:

 

forum user "PetermanThrew5Picks" thinks said Peterman will lead the Bills to a 50+ point win.  You realize picks are bad, right?

I already said run the damn wildcat every play, put Trumaine Edmunds up there to block and show Alabama what a young man who is far from a bust should look like in college.

 

All those projected high draft picks will find out real quick if they belong in his tier.

 

Also it's been said already Peterman beat national champs Clemson. College is easy for these dudes. He wasn't at a league history worst QBR, he was great, good enough to be drafted, good enough for Gruden to say....

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/jon-gruden-made-wild-prediction-about-nathan-peterman-before-2017-nfl-draft/

RED FLAG! ABORT! DON'T DRAFT SOMEONE GRUDEN WANTS

 

I'd change it to PetermanBeatClemson when we get relegated to CFB and become the most dominant program ever.. because we'd have the best quarterbacks in the league. Sign Tebow and Johnny too. 

Edited November 9, 2018 by PetermanThrew5Picks

[DCOrange]

This doesn't necessarily mean a ton to the question in the OP, but just hypothetically speaking, how many of the current Bills starters on offense do we envision starting for an NFL team next year? I think there's a decent chance Alabama's current defense has more starters in the NFL next year than the Bills current offense does.

[formerlyofCtown]

On 11/8/2018 at 7:57 PM, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s 15 years ago!! With the amount of info out there now the bust rate is WAY lower. McKinnie started 162 games in the NFL and went to the Pro Bowl. Is that bad? 

 

I watch a lot of football. I don’t (at all) think that a 30-10 prediction is ridiculous. Anyone that thinks this is a massive blowout hasn’t been paying attention to Bama. 

Im not talking about bust.  What Im talking about is they dominated in college.  Alabama is dominating lesser college talent not NFL.  Maybe youre just not knowledgable or competent enough to grasp that.

 

With as much as you trash this team you probably should find a new one.

Edited November 10, 2018 by formerlyofCtown

[HumbleAndHungry]

Alabama would def have the advantage at qb lol

[MJS]

On 11/8/2018 at 12:04 PM, rodneykm said:

The Bills. Even with Peterman at QB.

 

I really hate this argument though. You are comparing the best of the best college players vs a college team with some NFL caliber talent on it. 

 

It would be a bloodbath. Alabama would get destroyed. 

 

There are always threads like this and it is always a joke. There's no way an NFL team would ever lose to a college team. Bigger, faster, stronger, smarter, more experienced, more complicated schemes, the list goes on...

 

Alabama wouldn't score a point, I'd bet.

5 hours ago, DCOrange said:

This doesn't necessarily mean a ton to the question in the OP, but just hypothetically speaking, how many of the current Bills starters on offense do we envision starting for an NFL team next year? I think there's a decent chance Alabama's current defense has more starters in the NFL next year than the Bills current offense does.

 

And those Alabama starters will be inexperienced rookies that will take time to acclimate to the speed and physicality of the NFL game, being supported by experienced teammates and knowledgeable coaches.

 

A defense of rookies (not even a collection of all the best rookies, just rookies from one club) would be a joke and would get destroyed by anyone.

[Paulus]

On 11/8/2018 at 11:05 AM, Soda Popinski said:

It's really not even close to debatable.   

4 td spread, changes things a bit.

 

Honestly, considering McDermott'so style I am going to vote for Bama. Well get a 2 td lead and sit.

Edited November 10, 2018 by Paulus

[LSHMEAB]

7 hours ago, DCOrange said:

This doesn't necessarily mean a ton to the question in the OP, but just hypothetically speaking, how many of the current Bills starters on offense do we envision starting for an NFL team next year? I think there's a decent chance Alabama's current defense has more starters in the NFL next year than the Bills current offense does.

This was like 85/15 Bills before you started spitting facts.

 

I've come around to thinking 28.5 is about right. They would have very little chance of scoring, but we would certainly not dominate them on offense. If the Bills had the OL they had last season, I think they could conceivably run them into submission. Not with this group.

[Kirby Jackson]

5 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Im not talking about bust.  What Im talking about is they dominated in college.  Alabama is dominating lesser college talent not NFL.  Maybe youre just not knowledgable or competent enough to grasp that.

 

With as much as you trash this team you probably should find a new one.

You’re right. I need to watch more football to understand what I am seeing. 

 

Also, I hate the Bills. I wish that I knew and cared more about them. That is all that I can say for my 23,022nd post in the last 5 years. Clearly, I don’t care about this team. GTFO

Edited November 10, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[atlbillsfan1975]

I watch a ton of CFB, the product is more entertaining overall than NFL. 

Let’s say Tua gets hurt, he already is gimpy, and then Hurts can’t play, again injured, Bama gets destroyed.

Kirby I get how you can get caught up in the Bama hype. I went as far to read a great book about Saban and the process called ‘4th and Inches every day’. Fact is guys would get hurt for the CFB team. Meaning then you have even younger less experienced less developed guys coming in. It just wouldn’t be a game.

[Kirby Jackson]

27 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I watch a ton of CFB, the product is more entertaining overall than NFL. 

Let’s say Tua gets hurt, he already is gimpy, and then Hurts can’t play, again injured, Bama gets destroyed.

Kirby I get how you can get caught up in the Bama hype. I went as far to read a great book about Saban and the process called ‘4th and Inches every day’. Fact is guys would get hurt for the CFB team. Meaning then you have even younger less experienced less developed guys coming in. It just wouldn’t be a game.

Again, I’m not saying that it would be a game. I’m predicting a 20 point Bills win. In NFL terms, that’s a blowout.

 

I think that Alabama scores 10 points because of the terrible Bills offense. That means that this Bills offense needs to score 39 to cover. I don’t see it. It’s not being caught up in any hype. It is, unfortunately, just a real, unbiased, take on the Bills offense. There are enough players on the Alabama team to believe that the Bills wouldn’t score 5 TDs and 1 or 2 FGs. That’s roughly what it will take. I don’t see 10 points a quarter.

Edited November 10, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[GunnerBill]

13 hours ago, DCOrange said:

This doesn't necessarily mean a ton to the question in the OP, but just hypothetically speaking, how many of the current Bills starters on offense do we envision starting for an NFL team next year? I think there's a decent chance Alabama's current defense has more starters in the NFL next year than the Bills current offense does.

 

Only 2. Shady McCoy and Dion Dawkins. Oh and Allen... if you count him. He will be the QB in Buffalo. 

 

I think Mills, Bodine, Pryor and Ivory are likely on NFL rosters next year as backups and Benjamin and Clay possibly are.... if they are willing to take BIG paycuts. But those two are also the kind of injury riddled slowing down veterans who misjudge their value at the start of FA don't get signed and then get forgotten about unless someone has an impromtu injury. 

[Coach55]

Ok.  Here’s the real question. If they actually were able to schedule the game (say they week before the Super Bowl), how many people would watch it?  I think this would be a big draw and if the players agreed, I wonder if the league would be interested in trying to orchestrate it?

[dgrochester55]

Any NFL team will always beat any college team.  The speed and caliber of training is worlds apart.     Even on the best all time college team, more than half of the roster will not end up getting as much as an NFL tryout. 

 

A 28 point spread?  Now that is more interesting, but I still think that Buffalo would score enough to cover that spread.   Peterman may be the worst NFL qb of all time, but when I watched him in college, he was able to put a lot of points on the board in many games.   Even Peterman would get a lot of points on Alabama.

Edited November 10, 2018 by dgrochester55

[jlgarsh]

On 11/8/2018 at 2:25 PM, ProcessAccepted said:

After we are done discussing this I'd love to hear people's thoughts on who people think would win between King Kong and Godzilla in ping pong.

 

King Kong. longer arms and more agility.  I'd take Godzilla in a swim meet though.

[row_33]

3 hours ago, dgrochester55 said:

Any NFL team will always beat any college team.  The speed and caliber of training is worlds apart.     Even on the best all time college team, more than half of the roster will not end up getting as much as an NFL tryout. 

 

A 28 point spread?  Now that is more interesting, but I still think that Buffalo would score enough to cover that spread.   Peterman may be the worst NFL qb of all time, but when I watched him in college, he was able to put a lot of points on the board in many games.   Even Peterman would get a lot of points on Alabama.

 

Any Canadian Football League team would beat any US college team

 

 

[TroutDog]

On 11/9/2018 at 9:15 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

Out of curiosity, score prediction? 

I think we could beat the spread. I’d say 30+. Just my opinion, of course. 

[Bill from NYC]

One good thing that could come out of this matchup would be if McDermott took the time to explain the "process" he invented to Coach Saban.

 

It might help Nick in his future endeavors.

[HappyDays]

Former NFL guard Geoff Schwartz says Bills would cover the spread by halftime:

 

 

“This is No. 1 question I asked, and I give the same answer every time. In college I played against two defensive ends who played in the NFL. And some of them didn’t even play long in the NFL. The rest of the schedule was filled with good, average, or below-average college players. You could play less than 100% and still win those battles. But when you’re in the NFL, everyone is a pro. You don’t give 100% for a rep, or use good technique, you’re getting beat. So the idea that any college team could beat the worst pro team is asinine.”

 

“The Bills might cover the 28.5 by halftime. My words can’t do justice to the difference in speed, violence and physicality between the levels of football. Think about two people pedaling their bikes into each other, compared to two semi trucks barreling into each other at 55 mph. So the Bills would have the advantage in the trenches and tackling. They would have the advantage in speed and size. And yes, they would cover the spread.”

 

“Even at quarterback… Remember, Allen, Anderson and Peterman were drafted to play in the NFL. Allen was the seventh pick in the draft. When these guys struggle, they struggle with anticipation. Well, that wasn’t an issue in college. And guess what, they’d be playing college kids in this game. So yeah, it’s a bloodbath.”

[iinii]

I would take Saban and the 28. He can outcoach McDemott. With a four touchdown cushion, he figures out a way to win.

[Kirby Jackson]

Tide are on now. It’s an interesting test for their offense. Mississippi State MAY have the best front 7 in the country. They have 2 guys that will go in the first this year and the defense has allowed the fewest TDs in the nation. Let’s see how they hold up against the ‘Bama juggernaut.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Former NFL guard Geoff Schwartz says Bills would cover the spread by halftime:

 

 

 

 

 

The Bills with Allen playing as he did his run as starter cover the spread... I am sure. 

 

The Bills playing as they did last week no way. Geoff Schwartz talking about NFL teams is beside the point. The Bills without Allen are not an NFL offense. Not even close. They have just re-signed a man who couldn't crack the Alabama starting line up to make things better. Sadly that is where we are at this point. We are not a bad NFL offense we are NOT an NFL offense period. The gap between us and the next worst is signifcant. 

 

[formerlyofCtown]

17 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You’re right. I need to watch more football to understand what I am seeing. 

 

Also, I hate the Bills. I wish that I knew and cared more about them. That is all that I can say for my 23,022nd post in the last 5 years. Clearly, I don’t care about this team. GTFO

probably every last one of them was you btchn

[Kirby Jackson]

52 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

probably every last one of them was you btchn

I’m not apologizing for holding my team to a higher standard than this BS we have seen on offense. 

 

I’ve ALWAYS been a realist when it comes to the Bills. I give credit when credit is due and criticism when criticism is warranted. Questioning my fandom is beyond laughable.

[BringBackOrton]

22 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m not apologizing for holding my team to a higher standard than this BS we have seen on offense. 

 

I’ve ALWAYS been a realist when it comes to the Bills. I give credit when credit is due and criticism when criticism is warranted. Questioning my fandom is beyond laughable.

Except when it comes to gambling lines.  

 

Bama couldn't put up more than 24 on Miss State but are gonna hang within 30 of the Bills?

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Except when it comes to gambling lines.  

 

Bama couldn't put up more than 24 on Miss State but are gonna hang within 30 of the Bills?

Bills 30- Alabama 10 has been my prediction. I don’t think it’s crazy at all. Vegas says 28.5. I think it’s closer to 20. 

Edited November 11, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[BringBackOrton]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

No, Bills 30- Alabama 10 has been my prediction 

Yeah that's absurd.  You're basically arguing that Alabama has an offense that could be better than the Vikings this season.