(hypothetical) Alabama vs. Bills spread

[mannc]

3 minutes ago, BisonMan said:

 

A few have noted here that the majority of the current NFL players from Alabama are relatively young (<4 years in the NFL) and point to that as a sign that the Alabama roster is getting stronger. That’s a really poor analysis. The average tenure of an NFL player is less than 4 years (3.3 years). So, it would be very odd if the majority of Alabama alumni are not short tenured in the NFL.

 

 

 

Actually, that wasn’t really the point.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Who are they going to use to block our front 7.

A top 5 LT and a potential 1st round guard. That’s kind of the point. They have (at minimum) 2 guys that will be starting in the NFL next year on the OL. A RS sophomore who was a top 5 OG recruit in the country that weighs 344. The RG was a uninamous 5 star and the top OT recruit in the country. The RT was a 5 star and the 33rd rank recruit at any position in 2017.

 

So to sum it up, there is a top 5 OT this year and a C/G that will go by round 2. There are 2 guys that aren’t yet draft eligible that will be NFL starters as soon as 2020. The 5th player will likely return and then go to the NFL with the others. 

 

Thats the point. These aren’t “some college kids.” These are future pros. I’m confident that all 5 guys will start in the NFL at some point. I’m not saying that they would dominate our front 7 but their OL MAY very well be better than ours now. That’s not hyperbole either. Our front 7 will fo well against them but it isn’t going to be a 10 sack performance or anything. 

[Alphadawg7]

26 minutes ago, mannc said:

Nonsense.  Bama has two guys in the interior of their d-line who will be top ten picks this year.  The bust rate for guys like that is not high at all.  And of course, the Bills' roster isn't exactly peppered with NFL stars, especially on offense, where plenty of our starters would struggle to make the 53-man roster on other teams.

 

Someone else here posted a link showing that there are 54 Alabama players on NFL rosters right now, the vast majority of whom have been in the league four years or less.  That gives you some idea of the talent coming out of there, year after year.  Pretty much every starter on the current Alabama team will get a shot to play in the NFL, and so will some of the backups (like Robert Foster last year), so your statement that "only a small portion will even get a chance to play at the NFL level" is simply not true.  Go look at the list of Alabama alumni in the league, and keep in mind that the current team is probably the most talented Alabama team ever.       

 

Nonsense?  LOL...you dont know what you are talking about, you are just spouting opinion as fact.

 

DL first round BUST rate is 39.7% - thats flat out BUST...like NFL washout.

DL First round All Pro rate is a measly 16.5% - You are talking about these picks as IF they are locks to be NFL All Pros, yet only 16.5% of DL taken in the first round during the last 25 years have reached that accolade.  

 

When you add in the number of DL that bust by not living up to their first round billing and become low end starters, backups or rotational players, in other words, dont "bust" and fall out of the league, but just really go on to be some JAG (just another guy), that number rockets to over 60%.

 

So sorry, you are factually incorrect.  Now factor in the 2 to 3 guys you are claiming and project the odds over all 3 combined...the odds of all 3 being good NFL players is substantially low, the odds of all 3 becoming All Pro level players is miniscule.  It can CERTAINLY can happen, but its far far far far far from a lock.  So I dont care about a couple of guys who MIGHT be good NFL players SOMEDAY playing with a bunch of other guys who will never step foot on a competitive football field again.

 

Math doesn't lie...fan opinions, well thats not so accurate.

Edited November 9, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

A top 5 LT and a potential 1st round guard. That’s kind of the point. They have (at minimum) 2 guys that will be starting in the NFL next year on the OL. A RS sophomore who was a top 5 OG recruit in the country that weighs 344. The RG was a uninamous 5 star and the top OT recruit in the country. The RT was a 5 star and the 33rd rank recruit at any position in 2017.

 

So to sum it up, there is a top 5 OT this year and a C/G that will go by round 2. There are 2 guys that aren’t yet draft eligible that will be NFL starters as soon as 2020. The 5th player will likely return and then go to the NFL with the others. 

 

Thats the point. These aren’t “some college kids.” These are future pros. I’m confident that all 5 guys will start in the NFL at some point. I’m not saying that they would dominate our front 7 but their OL MAY very well be better than ours now. That’s not hyperbole either. Our front 7 will fo well against them but it isn’t going to be a 10 sack performance or anything. 

The Bills only get one first round draft pick per year.  Alabama can recruit five or six future first round picks every single year.

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Sam Darnold. Jackson, Rosen, and Mayfeild where top college QBs last year.  How are things goin for them.  They couldnt score on our D if their lives depended on it.  They didnt just hold a big 10 ten tesm to 190 yards and that was the Minnisota Vikings they beat 27-6.  That was Tom Brady they where holding to feild goals.  

Sam Darnold turned the ball over 22 times at USC last year!! Bringing an development into the conversation isn’t really relevant. That’s the place that takes the longest to get up to speed. I’d argue Tua is a better prospect than any of them. He has a ways to go still but you could plug him into the same situations as those guys and get results.

 

There are AT least 5 guys on that offense that could start on our offense now. Could our offense score on our defense? It’s fairly similar. If the answer is “they could score about 10” that’s what I projected. Now, I don’t see the Bills offense scoring 39 points against that Alabama defense. That’s what would be needed to cover. 

[Bills Wilk]

I think Alabama would give New England a run for their money

[mannc]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Nonsense?  LOL...you dont know what you are talking about, you are just spouting opinion as fact.

 

DL first round BUST rate is 39.7% - thats flat out BUST...like NFL washout.

DL First round All Pro rate is a measly 16.5% - You are talking about these picks as IF they are locks to be NFL All Pros, yet only 16.5% of DL taken in the first round during the last 25 years have reached that accolade.  

 

When you add in the number of DL that dont live up their first round billing and become backups or rotational players, in other words, dont "bust" and fall out of the league, but also dont really go on to be JAG (just another guy), that number rockets to over 60%.

 

So sorry, you are factually incorrect.  Now factor in the 2 to 3 guys you are claiming and project the odds over all 3 combined...the odds of all 3 being good NFL players is substantially low, the odds of all 3 becoming All Pro level players is miniscule.  It can CERTAINLY can happen, but its far far far far far from a lock.  So I dont care about a couple of guys who MIGHT be good NFL players SOMEDAY playing with a bunch of other guys who will never step foot on a competitive football field again.

 

Math doesn't lie...fan opinions, well thats not so accurate.

We are talking about top ten d-linemen from Alabama.  Those guys are LOCKS to become NFL starters, if not stars.  Name me a defensive lineman from Alabama who was drafted in the top ten in the past ten years and who did not start in the NFL.

[formerlyofCtown]

16 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

A top 5 LT and a potential 1st round guard. That’s kind of the point. They have (at minimum) 2 guys that will be starting in the NFL next year on the OL. A RS sophomore who was a top 5 OG recruit in the country that weighs 344. The RG was a uninamous 5 star and the top OT recruit in the country. The RT was a 5 star and the 33rd rank recruit at any position in 2017.

 

So to sum it up, there is a top 5 OT this year and a C/G that will go by round 2. There are 2 guys that aren’t yet draft eligible that will be NFL starters as soon as 2020. The 5th player will likely return and then go to the NFL with the others. 

 

Thats the point. These aren’t “some college kids.” These are future pros. I’m confident that all 5 guys will start in the NFL at some point. I’m not saying that they would dominate our front 7 but their OL MAY very well be better than ours now. That’s not hyperbole either. Our front 7 will fo well against them but it isn’t going to be a 10 sack performance or anything. 

top5 in college done nothin in the NFL.   Remember Mike Williams and Bryant McKinney.  Some college kids is exactly who they are.  Thats a fact.  You know they played well in college and thats it.  Maybe we should give em gold jackets at the draft huh.  Get real.  Its sad if you actually believe this.

[RollBillsRoll]

There is a world of difference between a 16 year old high school superstar and an average college player, and there is a world of difference between a 20 year old college superstar and a 27 year old average pro player. Somewhat relevant: For several years I was the head trainer at the largest high school in alabama. Two years straight we finished in the top 5 in USA Today High school football rankings. The year I left we had 11 players sign D-1 scholarships. The talent was crazy. We used to joke that we could beat half the college teams in alabama. 

 

I left that job to take a position at a d-3 school (we played against Ithaca College a couple times). DIII has no athletic scholarships and the guys on our team were generally a step slower and a few inches too short to get offers from bigger schools. However, that same year we got a guy who had started for my former high school team. He played and competed and many times out-competed against those same guys who signed DI scholarships. One day after practice I asked him if he thought our high school team could beat this piddly little DIII team.  His reply: "Hell no! They's grown men out here!"

 

I think there is a lot to be said for men who have had YEARS of learning the game, getting stronger mentally and physically. Saban's D would not be run over...he could scheme to slow that down by stacking the box, run blitzes, etc.  See what he did against Fournette every year. You would have to pass the ball effectively to score a bunch. I don't think we could score on Buffalo. 

TL;DR

I would say Bills win 27- 12, ( because we ain't got a FG kicker that can make a pro XP)

[NoSaint]

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I guess for me, it’s more about the 28.5. If I were betting this game, I’d be betting Bama. The game would be something like 30-10 IMO. Alabama isn’t some college team that has some NFL players. They probably have 20-30 guys on that roster now that will be in the NFL and 15 or so guys that will be drafted in the 1st 2 days. Now, some of them are young but elite talents like Jeudy, Harris and Tua will make a few plays (even against our strong defense). Their OL has multiple guys that would start on our OL now (Williams and Pierschbacher). Their defense has a few stars as well (specifically Quinnen Williams). The Bills would do some scoring but I don’t see them winning by 29 or more.

 

It feels like most missed the spread. It’s really the key though. And a hard one to bet. 

 

I think its fair to say multi touchdown win but not a gimme to be a total bloodbath

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

top5 in college done nothin in the NFL.   Remember Mike Williams and Bryant McKinney.  Some college kids is exactly who they are.  Thats a fact.  You know they played well in college and thats it.  Maybe we should give em gold jackets at the draft huh.  Get real.  Its sad if you actually believe this.

That’s 15 years ago!! With the amount of info out there now the bust rate is WAY lower. McKinnie started 162 games in the NFL and went to the Pro Bowl. Is that bad? 

 

I watch a lot of football. I don’t (at all) think that a 30-10 prediction is ridiculous. Anyone that thinks this is a massive blowout hasn’t been paying attention to Bama. 

[Alphadawg7]

27 minutes ago, mannc said:

We are talking about top ten d-linemen from Alabama.  Those guys are LOCKS to become NFL starters, if not stars.  Name me a defensive lineman from Alabama who was drafted in the top ten in the past ten years and who did not start in the NFL.

 

Locks...a fan favorite word to use on cant miss prospects every year that bust and fail miserably.  There is no such thing.  

 

Second, the past has zero relevancy on the future success of these players in question.

 

Third, the majority of the Alabama roster will never play a down of competitive professional football in their lives.  EVEN IF BOTH DL become studs, there are FIVE NFL OL blocking for our RBs who play in a pro system and also blocking for a top 10 NFL great RB in McCoy and a pretty good guy in Ivory. There are NOT 5 STUD NFL players on the Alabama front line.  There are not even 5 guys who will play in the NFL. 

 

So while I still dont even agree with your point that projected draft status guarantees them great NFL success, even if they do BOTH become studs, it doesnt change the fact that they are playing on a roster MOSTLY made up people who couldn't even make the Bills practice squad, let alone start an NFL game.  

 

EDIT:  By the way, you are HIGHLY exaggerating the past.  In the last 2 decades, Alabama has had 3...just 3...DL taken in the first round and only ONE taken top 10...Payne last year (not top 10), Allen the year before (not top 10) and Marcel Dareus (only one taken in top 10) who we dumped for a 6th round pick.  So where is this Alabama DL top 10 pick dominance?  

 

Ohhhhhh those pesky facts always messing up fan mythology

Edited November 9, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[Kirby Jackson]

FWIW, the poll is up to about 1,700 votes. 60/40 Alabama to cover

[Bing Bong]

53 minutes ago, mannc said:

so your statement that "only a small portion will even get a chance to play at the NFL level" is simply not true.  Go look at the list of Alabama alumni in the league, and keep in mind that the current team is probably the most talented Alabama team ever.       

Dude even if half of them are NFL starters THEY HAVE ANOTHER HALF THAT WON'T EVEN SNIFF THE NFL. It's a game of matchups, we could run the ball at the one DE that would get smoked every down. They have a 2 maybe all-pros lol, so do we, they have NFL 20 starters at best (not even close) we have 53, they have 33 guys that would flat out suck, are 10 years less experienced, and can't hide behind stars around them when the team they're playing has stars at every position relatively.

 

Even buying your argument. Think about the talent they DON'T have that every NFL team always has in spades.

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Whats the bust rate of first round DL picks in the NFL?  Whats the bust rate of second round DL picks in the NFL?

 

I will give you a hint substantially higher than 50%.  Being an NFL drafted pick, even a high draft pick, does NOT in any way shape or form translate into succeeding in the NFL.  So I don't care how many projected picks they have, odds are through the roof that all 3 of them wont translate into good NFL players.  In fact, its a higher probability they all bust than even 1 becoming a good NFL player.  So your projected "draft picks" are going up against guys ALL succeeded in becoming NFL starters.  

 

This is the biggest source of fan myth about predicting college teams to beat NFL teams.  They talk about ALL the guys projected to be "DRAFTED" as if they will all be good NFL players.  The reality is, out of all the players on the Alabama team, only a small portion will even get a chance to play at the NFL level, and even fewer are going to be starters, and even fewer than that will have sustained success...and even fewer will go on to be great players, IF ANY.

 

So sorry, this argument has no merit.  A few guys who MIGHT have NFL careers with a bunch of guys who will never play a down of professional football again are going up against 22 guys who all beat the odds and earned their way into a starting job, even if they aren't among the better starters in the league, they still have accomplished more than the vast majority of all college players will ever accomplish.   The vast majority of the Alabama roster couldn't even make it to our practice squad, let alone start in the NFL.  

 

On a really bad Nfl team how many are 6 of one half dozen of the other with guys on the street? 

 

Like most of those busts are still playing in the nfl for a bit. 

[dorquemada]

1 minute ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

Dude even if half of them are NFL starters THEY HAVE ANOTHER HALF THAT WON'T EVEN SNIFF THE NFL. It's a game of matchups, we could run the ball at the one DE that would get smoked every down. They have a 2 maybe all-pros lol, so do we, they have NFL 20 starters at best (not even close) we have 53, they have 33 guys that would flat out suck, are 10 years less experienced, and can't hide behind stars around them when the team they're playing has stars at every position relatively.

 

Even buying your argument. Think about the talent they DON'T have that every NFL team always has in spades.

 

You think the bills have 5 nfl quality OL?  I don't think saban is staying up late figuring out a scheme around Vladimir ducasse or John Miller

[Bing Bong]

2015 Alabama defense.. what a great future NFL team chockfull of starters lmao, guys would get SMOKED

18 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

You think the bills have 5 nfl quality OL?  I don't think saban is staying up late figuring out a scheme around Vladimir ducasse or John Miller

Saban wishes he had Ducasse and Miller on his roster right now lol. 

 

You're so worried about future draft position this dude was the first Alabama O Line player drafted John Miller's year and played like 6 games and bounced around practice squads

 

Arie Kouandjio

Never heard of him. But guess what? We can have him and start him against Bama if we wanted to! Duke had the top guard drafted.. duke! There's 200 teams with players all getting funneled into the NFL. It's not just "Alabama and some other dudes from some scrub school called Ohio State = NFL rosters"

Edited November 9, 2018 by PetermanThrew5Picks

[atlbillsfan1975]

When Alabama losses this year, will everyone realize that a professional team vs a college team is a silly arguement? 

If Bama scored a touchdown I would be surprised. 

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, atlbillsfan1975 said:

When Alabama losses this year, will everyone realize that a professional team vs a college team is a silly arguement? 

If Bama scored a touchdown I would be surprised. 

I don’t think any reasonable person thinks that they can win. An actual, professional, oddsmaker said that 28.5 would be the line. The question was “would the Bills cover 28.5?” 

 

Also, Bama isn’t losing. 

[Bing Bong]

1 minute ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

When Alabama losses this year, will everyone realize that a professional team vs a college team is a silly arguement? 

If Bama scored a touchdown I would be surprised. 

It makes no sense. We could grab all of Alabama's best alumni lucky to be drafted into the league and on Practice Squads and start all of them and we'd be a terrible NFL team and the best college team ever lol. An expansion team of just PS players would wreck Bama