Nate Davis: USA Today 2018 Season Projections

[26CornerBlitz]

2018 NFL record projections: Will Patriots falter on road to Super Bowl LIII?

It's time to dig into those playbooks and hit the ice baths.

 

NFL training camps begin opening this week as veterans for the Baltimore Ravens and Chicago Bears officially report for duty. Summer vacation ends for the league's other 30 teams next week.

 

It won't be long after that until injuries begin to mount, holdouts potentially simmer and flare and other manners of controversy surface. But based on what I know (or think I know) as we embark on the NFL's 99th season, here's my annual prediction of how the season will unfold with record projections for each team based on picking all 256 games, plus a playoff forecast.

 

AFC EAST

 

New England Patriots (11-5): Helps when you can count on five or six wins in divisional play. Despite the turnover on offense and Julian Edelman's suspension, hard to believe they won't still cruise to a first-round bye. At minimum.

 

Miami Dolphins (7-9): Coach Adam Gase says Ryan Tannehill learned a lot by watching while injured in 2017. We'll see. This team looks significantly different on both sides of the ball, which probably means consistent inconsistency.

 

New York Jets (4-12): They may struggle to replicate last year's surprising total of five wins. But with young talent like Sam Darnold and Jamal Adams, it appears a strong foundation is finally forming.

 

Buffalo Bills (3-13): They stole several games in 2017 on the way to a feel-good wild-card ride. But the O-line is decimated, the quarterback room in upheaval and a dark cloud looms over Shady McCoy. Maybe rookie Josh Allen provides promising glimpses of the future, but don't expect many.

 

[PromoTheRobot]

Didn't this guy predict 4-12 last year?

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Didn't this guy predict 4-12 last year?

 

Yep.

[RiotAct]

[corta765]

Seems fair I don't have them past 5-11 so works for me. The rest seem solid happy someone else believes Bears are a bit over hyped same with San Fran and that Seattle is gonna crater. Jags seem more like a 9-7 maybe 10-6 team only thing I'd change.

[CommonCents]

2 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Didn't this guy predict 4-12 last year?

Bills 4-12

Jets 1-15

Pats 16-0

Jags 8-8

 

For me the first team I look at when reading someone’s predictions for last year is the Jags, it’s habit to give them a bad record but anyone paying attention knew that team was stacked. Nate Davis is just another name in the pile labeled hack.

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, corta765 said:

Seems fair I don't have them past 5-11 so works for me. The rest seem solid happy someone else believes Bears are a bit over hyped same with San Fran and that Seattle is gonna crater. Jags seem more like a 9-7 maybe 10-6 team only thing I'd change.

 

The could easily exceed that on the strength of McDermott's defense with him and Leslie Frazier running things. 

Edited July 19, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[Maynard]

Well, let’s look at the bright side with the 2nd overall pick in the 2019 draft. Oliver or Bosa here we come......

[corta765]

2 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

The could easily exceed that on the strength of McDermott's defense with him and Leslie Frazier running things. 

 

They literally have no offense is Shady is gone and even with him they are going to be low scoring. The team benefited from turnovers last year and fumble luck which is going to swing against them. A 5-11 building season still can be good if Allen and other youngsters show promise and learn their chops.

[dollars 2 donuts]

Let me translate:

 

"Anything that you here coming out of our mouths having to do with the importance of defense, or other facets of football  don't mean diddly.  Your entire worth in our eyes comes down to who your quarterback is and how many TDs and yards he is going to throw.  Everything else is meaningless to us."

 

 

I think we are a 5-11 to 7-9 team at best.  However, the castigating of this team over that position (which I would like it to be better, too) and the idea that everything depends upon it is silly.

 

EDIT:  Picking 2nd overall, though, WOULD be pretty sweet.

Edited July 19, 2018 by dollars 2 donuts

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, corta765 said:

They literally have no offense is Shady is gone and even with him they are going to be low scoring. The team benefited from turnovers last year and fumble luck which is going to swing against them. A 5-11 building season still can be good if Allen and other youngsters show promise and learn their chops.

 

No reason to think that Shady won't be a round at this point, but yes the offense as a whole is a major question mark with QB, OL, and WR  unsettled. 

[TigerJ]

13 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Didn't this guy predict 4-12 last year?

His explanation for last season basically sounds like an excuse for his year ago miss.  He's essentially saying, "I was right, but they got lucky."  Let's hope he's making excuses next year at this time.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

17 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Didn't this guy predict 4-12 last year?

 

16 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Yep.

Yeah, that's where I was going to go with this.

 

I think they will be worse, but 3-13 bad is laughable, especially when they play the Jets and Dolphins twice a year.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

 

Yeah, that's where I was going to go with this.

 

I think they will be worse, but 3-13 bad is laughable, especially when they play the Jets and Dolphins twice a year.

 

They have enough good players and coaches to do far better than 3-13.

[C.Biscuit97]

If you weren’t a Bills fan, what record would you predict for them?

[dollars 2 donuts]

9 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

His explanation for last season basically sounds like an excuse for his year ago miss.  He's essentially saying, "I was right, but they got lucky."  Let's hope he's making excuses next year at this time.

 

5 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

 

Yeah, that's where I was going to go with this.

 

I think they will be worse, but 3-13 bad is laughable, especially when they play the Jets and Dolphins twice a year.

 

 

What's worse, you guys, or rather what is BS is if the Bills finish 6-10 or 7-9 and we get a "see, I told you they'd be bad.".

 

No you didn't as the team won either 100% or 133% more games than you said they were going to win.

Edited July 19, 2018 by dollars 2 donuts

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

 

Yeah, that's where I was going to go with this.

 

I think they will be worse, but 3-13 bad is laughable, especially when they play the Jets and Dolphins twice a year.

Given the Bills history, it seems impossible for them to win less than 6 games no matter who is on the team.

 

but “on paper,” this offense looks awful.  McDermott will need to complete his PhD in Jauron ball to match last year.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

If you weren’t a Bills fan, what record would you predict for them?

5-11 or 6-10. McCoy and the defense spoon feeds enough that even Peterman can't screw up that much.

2 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

 

What's worse, you guys, or rather what is BS is if the Bills finish 6-10 or 7-9 and we get a "see, I told you they'd be bad.".

 

No you didn't as the team won either 100% or 133% more games than you said they were going to win.

Yeah, I have consistently seen more than one prediction of 4 wins or less for the last decade. They have never got that bad, but the writers never get called out on it.

[dollars 2 donuts]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Given the Bills history, it seems impossible for them to win less than 6 games no matter who is on the team.

 

but “on paper,” this offense looks awful.  McDermott will need to complete his PhD in Jauron ball to match last year.

 

We have been 3-13 just once in the last 32 years.

 

Does anyone really think THIS is the team that is going to equal that mark?

 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

5-11 or 6-10. McCoy and the defense spoon feeds enough that even Peterman can't screw up that much.

Yeah, I have consistently seen more than one prediction of 4 wins or less for the last decade. They have never got that bad, but the writers never get called out on it.

Yeah, I agree with this.  Defense could be really good. 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yeah, I agree with this.  Defense could be really good. 

I am very optimistic on the defense. There were a few games they really got gouged, but I am rewatching highlights and I am amazed at the number of critical stops I watched. And now with reinforcement in the front 7, I think we finally see a return of a top 10 defense.

[dollars 2 donuts]

If (IF) we go 2-4 in our division this year does anyone really see us going 1-9 against the rest of the NFL?

 

I believe we are 10-10 the last 2 years.

[teef]

10 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

We have been 3-13 just once in the last 32 years.

 

Does anyone really think THIS is the team that is going to equal that mark?

 

i'm with ya.  it's just nuts to see these types of predictions.  

[brianthomas]

As a Bills fan i'd predict a record of 9-7 this year. With the bulk of our wins coming in the 2nd half of the season. Any predictions are problematic of course, as we've had so many changes & haven't seen what anything looks like yet.

 

I surely don't expect us to be 3-13 though. 9-7 might be too high, but 3-13 is way too low imo. Our defense & running game alone should be enough to net us 5 or 6 wins. Throw in a couple games where we steal a few more wins & who knows, maybe we can get to 9-7 again.

 

Since this is all conjecture anyways, how bout WE"RE GOING TO THE SUPER BOWL BABY!

A Bills fan can DREAM, can't we?!?!!!

Before we made the playoffs last year, dreaming of better days is all i've had for the past 17 years lol

GO BILLS!

[SoTier]

58 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

They have enough good players and coaches to do far better than 3-13.

 

Not on offense they don't.  The only veterans on offense that would likely be starters on most other NFL teams are McCoy, Clay, and Benjamin.  Dawkins might be a fourth if he can continue to improve, but he's likely to suffer from not having Incognito beside him.  I'll believe that Daboll is even a competent OC when he proves that he is.  Dennison was supposed to be a decent OC but proved to be a dud, so a second failure will be an indictment of McDermott's own competence.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, SoTier said:

 

Not on offense they don't.  The only veterans on offense that would likely be starters on most other NFL teams are McCoy, Clay, and Benjamin.  Dawkins might be a fourth if he can continue to improve, but he's likely to suffer from not having Incognito beside him.  I'll believe that Daboll is even a competent OC when he proves that he is.  Dennison was supposed to be a decent OC but proved to be a dud, so a second failure will be an indictment of McDermott's own competence.

 

 

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

No reason to think that Shady won't be a round at this point, but yes the offense as a whole is a major question mark with QB, OL, and WR  unsettled. 

 

[Cheektowaga Chad]

The bills have gone something like 7 years in a row going over on the Vegas win mark

[Augie]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

If you weren’t a Bills fan, what record would you predict for them?

 

I’d say 6-8 wins, a bit down from last year. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

Right now I'm in the 5-7 wins range. That may change if Allen emerges in camp or something. Last year I was looking at 9-11 wins, FWIW.

[GunnerBill]

41 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Not on offense they don't.  The only veterans on offense that would likely be starters on most other NFL teams are McCoy, Clay, and Benjamin.  Dawkins might be a fourth if he can continue to improve, but he's likely to suffer from not having Incognito beside him.  I'll believe that Daboll is even a competent OC when he proves that he is.  Dennison was supposed to be a decent OC but proved to be a dud, so a second failure will be an indictment of McDermott's own competence.

 

 

Or maybe Dennison wasn't a dud... the talent level was just not very high?

28 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Right now I'm in the 5-7 wins range. That may change if Allen emerges in camp or something. Last year I was looking at 9-11 wins, FWIW.

 

I am with you on this year.  I was right in the 8-8 range last year. 

[26TrapDraw]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

If you weren’t a Bills fan, what record would you predict for them?

Too many questions to answer with a tough initial schedule. 4-12

BUT since I am a Bills fan 3-13

[HOUSE]

Here is USA Todays 2017 NFL predictions

I am starting to see a pattern of abuse....

 

Buffalo Bills (4-12): New regime. New schemes. Tough schedule against the NFC South and AFC West.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2017/07/24/nfl-record-projections-predictions-patriots-cowboys-raiders-steelers/500328001/

Edited July 19, 2018 by THE SLAMMER

[JP's Voice]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

Not on offense they don't.  The only veterans on offense that would likely be starters on most other NFL teams are McCoy, Clay, and Benjamin.  Dawkins might be a fourth if he can continue to improve, but he's likely to suffer from not having Incognito beside him.  I'll believe that Daboll is even a competent OC when he proves that he is.  Dennison was supposed to be a decent OC but proved to be a dud, so a second failure will be an indictment of McDermott's own competence.

 

 

how did we have enough competent players on offense last year to get to 9-7?

Position by position on offense YOY:

QB - Likely will have higher YDs, TDs, and TOs. This will not be any worse.

RB - Same level of talent if you think that Ivory and Tolbert are equals. I think we get better as Ivory is better than Tolbert

WR - Will be better this year than last. A full year of KB, Zay Jones can't be any worse than he was last year and therefore will be equal if not better than last year. Kerley and the rookies are an upgrade to whatever we had in the slot last year

TE - Remains the same with Clay and O'Leary

LT - Same

RT- Same

RG - Improved Miller with better scheme fit to his needs

C - Same level of talent if Groy starts. Will not see any drop off in Groy vs the extremely average E. Wood from last year

LG - Will see a drop off in Richie's departure.

 

Seeing as our defense strongly improved on paper this year, and the very slight change in offensive players. I don't see how we will be extremely out matched in any game. I think the majority of our games will be decided by one score and hopefully we can steal a few here and there. The national media is publishing extremely lazy work with very little considerations for where we were last year.

Edited July 19, 2018 by JP's Voice

[Paul Costa]

33 minutes ago, JP's Voice said:

 

how did we have enough competent players on offense last year to get to 9-7?

Position by position on offense YOY:

QB - Likely will have higher YDs, TDs, and TOs. This will not be any worse.

RB - Same level of talent if you think that Ivory and Tolbert are equals. I think we get better as Ivory is better than Tolbert

WR - Will be better this year than last. A full year of KB, Zay Jones can't be any worse than he was last year and therefore will be equal if not better than last year. Kerley and the rookies are an upgrade to whatever we had in the slot last year

TE - Remains the same with Clay and O'Leary

LT - Same

RT- Same

RG - Improved Miller with better scheme fit to his needs

C - Same level of talent if Groy starts. Will not see any drop off in Groy vs the extremely average E. Wood from last year

LG - Will see a drop off in Richie's departure.

 

Seeing as our defense strongly improved on paper this year, and the very slight change in offensive players. I don't see how we will be extremely out matched in any game. I think the majority of our games will be decided by one score and hopefully we can steal a few here and there. The national media is publishing extremely lazy work with very little considerations for where we were last year.

JP is making a lot of sense to me?

[John from Riverside]

"stole several games"

 

No sir....you either win them or you lose them....do the Patriots "steal games?"

I think we can achieve the same 9-7

 

I think the D improves

 

I think the O slightly regresses

 

(note......if the O improves we are a playoff team)

[PromoTheRobot]

3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

If you weren’t a Bills fan, what record would you predict for them?

 

7-9. The offense might be weaker but the defense is likely better.

1 hour ago, THE SLAMMER said:

Here is USA Todays 2017 NFL predictions

I am starting to see a pattern of abuse....

 

Buffalo Bills (4-12): New regime. New schemes. Tough schedule against the NFC South and AFC West.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2017/07/24/nfl-record-projections-predictions-patriots-cowboys-raiders-steelers/500328001/

 

What is the prediction after we win a Super Bowl? 2-14?

Edited July 19, 2018 by PromoTheRobot

[snamsnoops]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

"stole several games"

 

No sir....you either win them or you lose them....do the Patriots "steal games?"

I think we can achieve the same 9-7

 

I think the D improves

 

I think the O slightly regresses

 

(note......if the O improves we are a playoff team)

 

So with the Refs help they do. The "just give it to em" game by the Refs.

Brady being coddled all the time with not being flagging for intentional grounding. Him complaining about being touched by someone on the D to get a flag.

The mysterious PI calls they get when Brady just throws it down field in desperation. This seem to happen a lot more last year.

I am sure there is more! What i am saying is they seem to get preferred treatment from officials (maybe i am crazy or just a bills fan or both!)

KB caught that damn TD...... It probably wouldn't have mattered!

[Steve Billieve]

Seems like decent coaching alone should get you more than 3 wins.  There's a lot of parity in the nfl, and a lot of coaching churn.

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

"stole several games"

 

No sir....you either win them or you lose them....do the Patriots "steal games?"

I think we can achieve the same 9-7

 

I think the D improves

 

I think the O slightly regresses

 

(note......if the O improves we are a playoff team)

John, you’re the man but have you ever not thought the Bills weren’t making the playoffs?

 

and it’s easier to steal games when you have Tom Brady

[John from Riverside]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

John, you’re the man but have you ever not thought the Bills weren’t making the playoffs?

 

and it’s easier to steal games when you have Tom Brady

To be truthful yes I have

 

but

 

My mind doesnt really work that way and quickly corrected itself....I will ALWAYS think we are gonna have a chance until we dont