Prediction: Nathan Peterman Bills Starting QB Wk. 1 vs. Ravens

[LarryMadman]

7 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Just to be clear there is only one “best case scenario.” If Allen starts and looks like Watson did last year that is “best case scenario.” There are many other acceptable outcomes but that is the only “best case.” Now back to your regularly scheduled programming...

That would be nice for a change. That the Bills draft a QB that hits the ground running and never looks back. 

[eball]

Eball's updated probabilities of opening day starter (barring injury):

 

McCarron 55%

Allen 40%

Peterman 5%

 

If McCarron fares well in preseason and isn't making any "big mistakes" then they probably want the veteran starting off the season.  He appears to be most the most consistent as well as the least spectacular.  Expect to see short routes and a bunch of sacks, but no huge mistakes.

 

If Allen doesn't turn the ball over in preseason action and continues to show big play ability, the trust factor of the coaching staff goes way up and he may overtake McCarron.

 

Peterman is really on the outside looking in at this point.  We've seen through four days of camp that he's neither "safe" nor particularly spectacular.  The other two guys would have to take significant steps back, while Nate himself steps it up, to change the odds of starting (in my opinion).

[MikeSpeed]

I'd like to think AJ would be happy being a back up, but I cannot believe someone who sues his former team wants to leave to be a backup somewhere else. That doesn't make sense. 

I may be totally off base. If I am great, but he still only has a 2 year deal, so he'll be gone before Peterman would. 

Bottom line if Peterman is the backup I feel it's better for the Bill's long term.

[LarryMadman]

13 minutes ago, MikeSpeed said:

I'd like to think AJ would be happy being a back up, but I cannot believe someone who sues his former team wants to leave to be a backup somewhere else. That doesn't make sense. 

I may be totally off base. If I am great, but he still only has a 2 year deal, so he'll be gone before Peterman would. 

Bottom line if Peterman is the backup I feel it's better for the Bill's long term.

Yeah I would think AJ wouldn't want that either but I have to believe McBeane told him they were drafting a QB and he still said ok I'll come to Buffalo. So IDK what is really going on in his head. Maybe he just didn't like the way Cincy was treating him and wanted out anywhere and doing anything.

Edited July 29, 2018 by LarryMadman

[BurpleBull]

On 7/28/2018 at 7:45 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

I said it earlier in the thread but this “QB competition” is totally irrelevant. IF anyone but Allen starts at the beginning of the year they are a mere placeholder. It may week 1, it may be a month, it may be more but this isn’t a “competition.” It is a matter of “when is Allen ready to play?” This isn’t a battle to determine the QB of the future; that has already been decided.

 

Though this competition isn't to determine the QB of the future---I don't think anybody is suggesting that it is---the future can become subject to change if Peterman consistently outperforms Allen in real-game action moving forward, never relinquishing his position of starting QB--- assuming he wins the current QB non-competition as you put it.

[Kirby Jackson]

30 minutes ago, BurpleBull said:

 

Though this competition isn't to determine the QB of the future---I don't think anybody is suggesting that it is---the future can become subject to change if Peterman consistently outperforms Allen in real-game action moving forward, never relinquishing his position of starting QB--- assuming he wins the current QB non-competition as you put it.

That’s a minimum of 3 years away. When Allen gets the keys he’s going to get 2 years to prove himself. That’s the reality. It isn’t a competition. The Bills didn’t trade up to 7 to be so content with Peterman that they never see Allen. He will be handed the job the second that he is ready and will have 2 years to prove himself.

 

If, at that point, they decide that he isn’t the answer they will start looking again. It’s HIGHLY UNLIKELY that 3 years down the road they will circle back to Peterman as Allen’s successor. The Cousins/RG situation is the only one that I can think of where that happened. 

 

Alex Smith was an MVP candidate last year  and he was jettisoned. Teams are always going to see their top 10 QBs play. They will be given every opportunity to fail. 

Edited July 29, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[Fr. Jerk]

I think I'd rather see J Peterman start.

 

[Prickly Pete]

This Peterman luv is some of the most absurd **** I have ever read.

[BurpleBull]

Peterman looks like a different QB throwing-wise.

 

I think he's gonna come on strong and make noise.

[keepthefaith]

12 hours ago, eball said:

Eball's updated probabilities of opening day starter (barring injury):

 

McCarron 55%

Allen 40%

Peterman 5%

 

If McCarron fares well in preseason and isn't making any "big mistakes" then they probably want the veteran starting off the season.  He appears to be most the most consistent as well as the least spectacular.  Expect to see short routes and a bunch of sacks, but no huge mistakes.

 

If Allen doesn't turn the ball over in preseason action and continues to show big play ability, the trust factor of the coaching staff goes way up and he may overtake McCarron.

 

Peterman is really on the outside looking in at this point.  We've seen through four days of camp that he's neither "safe" nor particularly spectacular.  The other two guys would have to take significant steps back, while Nate himself steps it up, to change the odds of starting (in my opinion).

 

I'll get trampled for this but I think the chances of Allen being the opening day starter are zero unless one or both of the others are hurt.  He simply doesn't have enough time to conquer all of the things that a starting QB needs to conquer as a rookie in the NFL.  It would be the exception and not the rule if he won the job and also played well early in the NFL.  I just don't see McD taking that risk unless there is a huge gap in pre-season between him and the others.  McCarron should be way ahead of Josh in terms of leadership, grasp of the offense and predictability.  He has simply played, studied and practiced a lot more football at this point than has Josh. 

 

Wouldn't be surprised if Josh were #2 on opening day though. 

[transplantbillsfan]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think Joe B was referring to 1 day.  Regarding which "yea!  but it's only one day"

 

No, he said it after day 3, and he said Allen was the best QB through 3 days of Training Camp.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 hours ago, MikeSpeed said:

I'd like to think AJ would be happy being a back up, but I cannot believe someone who sues his former team wants to leave to be a backup somewhere else. That doesn't make sense. 

I may be totally off base. If I am great, but he still only has a 2 year deal, so he'll be gone before Peterman would. 

Bottom line if Peterman is the backup I feel it's better for the Bill's long term.

 

I'm sure AJ hoped to get a starting gig, but what he sued for was to be a FA and to be able to consider all offers.

He didn't get offered a starting gig by anyone.  The Bills offered a chance to come in and compete.  It is on him to take advantage of that opportunity.

 

I don't think he wants to be a long term backup, but if he can't beat out a raw rookie generally acknowledged to be a long term project, it is what it is.

 

8 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

No, he said it after day 3, and he said Allen was the best QB through 3 days of Training Camp.

 

OK, I sit corrected.  I guess different reporters see it differently.

[transplantbillsfan]

32 minutes ago, BurpleBull said:

Peterman looks like a different QB throwing-wise.

 

I think he's gonna come on strong and make noise.

 

It doesn't sound like he's had the $6 million dollar makeover some were saying he's had this offseason.

 

Looks like a 6 dollar makeover, one that goes out the window if he's not dropping back and standing in a clean pocket in order to execute all those lower body mechanics he needs in order to show off all that "improved arm strength."

 

Through 4 days of camp Dabol's offense looks to be incorporating a whole bunch of RPOs, rollouts and misdirection, often asking the QB to throw on the run.

 

Not good...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

46 minutes ago, BurpleBull said:

Peterman looks like a different QB throwing-wise.

I think he's gonna come on strong and make noise.

 

It's interesting how different people see different things.  I'm not there watching, so I don't have enough data to have a personal opinion. 

Joe B had this to say:
" 3) Peterman looks nervous
- Training camp is three days old which is enough of a sample size to conclude that Nathan Peterman has not looked like the same player that he was during spring practices. Peterman showed confidence in his arm, touch on his throws, and a deep understanding of the playbook during the spring. In his first three days, Peterman has panicked in the pocket a bit and looks a little nervous to my eye. As a result, his accuracy has suffered, completing only 6-of-14 pass attempts over the last two days. To his credit, he is trying to push the ball down the field. However, sometimes the pocket gets so muddy around him that he gets some happy feet, and it causes his throw to go haywire. It is still incredibly early in the summer of work here, but at this point, Peterman has been the third-best quarterback during training camp.  "

 

Sal C also commented that when Peterman has time and space, there's noticeably more zip on his throws, but when he's on the move, there isn't (see quote in Transplant Bills Fan's post)

[BurpleBull]

27 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

It doesn't sound like he's had the $6 million dollar makeover some were saying he's had this offseason.

 

Looks like a 6 dollar makeover, one that goes out the window if he's not dropping back and standing in a clean pocket in order to execute all those lower body mechanics he needs in order to show off all that "improved arm strength."

 

Through 4 days of camp Dabol's offense looks to be incorporating a whole bunch of RPOs, rollouts and misdirection, often asking the QB to throw on the run.

 

Not good...

 

You've used that tweet once before, but since you've chosen to use it again, I'll refer to the post I used the first time in response again.

 

from newyorkupstate.com

 

Buffalo Bills training camp day 2: Nathan Peterman shows off arm (8 observations)

 

Peterman shows off the arm

 

Josh Allen gets all the big headlines when it comes to the deep ball, but Peterman showed he can sling it when he needs to get downfield.

 

Peterman found Cam Phillips on a rollout bomb in the end zone during 11-on-11 that brought the crowd to life at St. John Fisher.

 

 

A rollout bomb to the end zone would count towards being able to execute the whole bunch of rollouts Daboll plans to incorporate I'm guessing?

[BurpleBull]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's interesting how different people see different things.  I'm not there watching, so I don't have enough data to have a personal opinion. 

Joe B had this to say:
" 3) Peterman looks nervous
- Training camp is three days old which is enough of a sample size to conclude that Nathan Peterman has not looked like the same player that he was during spring practices. Peterman showed confidence in his arm, touch on his throws, and a deep understanding of the playbook during the spring. In his first three days, Peterman has panicked in the pocket a bit and looks a little nervous to my eye. As a result, his accuracy has suffered, completing only 6-of-14 pass attempts over the last two days. To his credit, he is trying to push the ball down the field. However, sometimes the pocket gets so muddy around him that he gets some happy feet, and it causes his throw to go haywire. It is still incredibly early in the summer of work here, but at this point, Peterman has been the third-best quarterback during training camp.  "

 

Sal C also commented that when Peterman has time and space, there's noticeably more zip on his throws, but when he's on the move, there isn't (see quote in Transplant Bills Fan's post)

 

I'm not there either, I'm just going off of what I see in the videos provided like most of us and you can see that the ball just comes out differently.

 

I was commenting more so on Peterman's throwing mechanics not his poise or footwork in the pocket early on. 

 

 

I'm finding that playing experience covers a multitude of QB sins or at least the one pertaining to arm strength, because those who criticize Peterman's arm strength don't consistently do the same with McCarron, despite placing him and Peterman in the same class of Bills' QBs, who 'won't even think about making that throw' when comparing him against Josh Allen. 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, BurpleBull said:

 

You've used that tweet once before, but since you've chosen to use it again, I'll refer to the post I used the first time in response again.

 

from newyorkupstate.com

 

Buffalo Bills training camp day 2: Nathan Peterman shows off arm (8 observations)

 

Peterman shows off the arm

 

Josh Allen gets all the big headlines when it comes to the deep ball, but Peterman showed he can sling it when he needs to get downfield.

 

Peterman found Cam Phillips on a rollout bomb in the end zone during 11-on-11 that brought the crowd to life at St. John Fisher.

 

 

A rollout bomb to the end zone would count towards being able to execute the whole bunch of rollouts Daboll plans to incorporate I'm guessing?

 

If all of them are bombs, sure.

 

How often are rollouts in an offense predicated on moving the QB out of the pocket deep passes?

 

I'm concerned with the majority of 5-20 yard NFL passes he'd be attempting that he was nearly incapable of last year, not the minority of flashy low percentage bombs he might throw.

[reddogblitz]

On 7/28/2018 at 2:46 PM, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s what it sounds like (and Edwards is my least favorite Bill ever). With that being said McCarron has been a winner throughout his life. I’d like to think that he has a tough competitive spirit. I’m not sure that he’s too physically gifted but he will make good decisions. He did, and still does, feel like a good backup to me. He’s the kind of guy that can play for a few weeks and not hurt you.

 

If I were to compare AJ to a historical Bills QB, I would think Kyle Orton. Smart, protective of the football but will throw it down field when it is there.  And when the  chips are down late,there's a decent chance he'll deliver.

On 7/28/2018 at 2:56 PM, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

I think the people who are calling for peterman to start are the same people that wanted Jeff Tuel to start 

 

and the same people that wanted Frank to start.

[GunnerBill]

Peterman's goose is cooked. 

[eball]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Peterman's goose is cooked. 

 

It truly is.  McCarron is showing a better grasp of the offense, and Allen is not making huge rookie mistakes while flashing big play ability.

[Wayne Cubed]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Peterman's goose is cooked. 

 

Still think their is a possibility they roll with 2 QBs on the active roster, as I've said previously.

 

If they try to stick Peterman on the PS, is there really any team that's going to try to sign him to their active roster? Especially after what he's put on film?

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

Still think their is a possibility they roll with 2 QBs on the active roster, as I've said previously.

 

If they try to stick Peterman on the PS, is there really any team that's going to try to sign him to their active roster? Especially after what he's put on film?

 

I also think there is a very good possibility that they go with 2 on the 53.  Hell last year they only carried 3 because their 3rd QB was a core special teamer ?. Peterman is now the clear #3. He came into camp on the back of a strong OTAs and minicamp period, he took the first snaps with the 1s on day 1 of camp and then has been clearly passed by AJ (who took all the snaps with the 1s in the 11 v 11 portion yesterday as per Cover 1 - Allen and Peterman both got a few in 7 on 7) and Allen has been a little up and down but has had one of those days (day 3) that really excites you about him and his potential.  

 

I still strongly suspect Allen is the 3rd guy in for the 1st pre-season game but that is likely based on seniority and sticking with the "process" at this stage. By pre-season game 2 he will have jumped Nate unless something dramatic happens between now and then.  

 

As for would anyone poach Peterman? I'd be shocked if they did. 

[BurpleBull]

9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

If all of them are bombs, sure.

 

How often are rollouts in an offense predicated on moving the QB out of the pocket deep passes?

 

I'm concerned with the majority of 5-20 yard NFL passes he'd be attempting that he was nearly incapable of last year, not the minority of flashy low percentage bombs he might throw.

 

Wait a second, wasn't your point that he couldn't generate the same improved zip behind a pass, if his feet weren't set in the pocket, but rather on the move?

11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Looks like a 6 dollar makeover, one that goes out the window if he's not dropping back and standing in a clean pocket in order to execute all those lower body mechanics he needs in order to show off all that "improved arm strength."

 

I provide evidence that he can do it, because he has done it...

 

Now your argument is that the completion used as evidence to support Peterman's development was made too far down the field to count.

 

 

Edited July 30, 2018 by BurpleBull

[Wily Dog]

2 hours ago, eball said:

 

It truly is.  McCarron is showing a better grasp of the offense, and Allen is not making huge rookie mistakes while flashing big play ability.

You are Tonto aren'i you ?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, BurpleBull said:

I'm finding that playing experience covers a multitude of QB sins or at least the one pertaining to arm strength, because those who criticize Peterman's arm strength don't consistently do the same with McCarron, despite placing him and Peterman in the same class of Bills' QBs, who 'won't even think about making that throw' when comparing him against Josh Allen.

 

It's not playing experience per se, but the players track record, a combination of arm strength and decision making.  McCarron seems to know what he can and can't do with his arm - too cautious perhaps.  When he got the opportunity to play a couple years back, he had a TD/INT ratio of 2.3 and 210 ypg.  He didn't make some throws you'd like to see, and the team's pass game productivity fell off overall, but he didn't make a lot of mistakes, either.

 

Until Peterman demonstrates in live action that he's changed something (either his arm or his head), the concern is that doesn't know what he can't do with his arm.  When he got the opportunity to play, his TD:INT ratio is the inverse of AJ McCarron's.  His completion percentage was 54% (113 ypg) in preseason last year and 49% for 58 ypg in the regular season. 

 

So it's not experience per se, but what's the guy has shown & when you look has he shown something different.  Peterman's 1st pass of training camp would have been picked off by Tre White if Tre could close the deal.  Peterman and his improved velocity are reported as 6-of-14, 43% completions.  Both look like picking up about where he left off, not change.

 

I hope Peterman develops and starts lighting it up while taking care of the football, because the better the Bills QBs, the better the Bills.  Peterman seems by all reports to be a solid-gold kind of guy, the kind of guy you'd like to see succeed. 

 

I just don't see the cause for euphoria on him as a changed player as yet in the reports we have out of camp.

 

 

3 hours ago, Wayne Cubed said:

Still think their is a possibility they roll with 2 QBs on the active roster, as I've said previously.

If they try to stick Peterman on the PS, is there really any team that's going to try to sign him to their active roster? Especially after what he's put on film?

 

That's a good question.  I guess it would depend upon what they have in the room already and what they want - Peterman is reported a Whiteboard Wizard.

 

Unless something changes and Peterman really starts lighting it up in a game, I'm thinking that most teams will take the viewpoint that the late-rounder they haven't seen, who has potential is better than the late-rounder who has put down game film like Peterman's.

 

Anyone else remember when this board was freaking out at the thought that the Bills might put Levi Brown on the practice squad?  "He'd be snapped up immediately if they try!"  He wasn't.

[Kirby Jackson]

For some perspective on the likelihood of Peterman developing, here is a list. Since 2001 these are the QBs drafted in the 5th round or later:

- Mike McMahon

- A.J. Feeley

- Josh Booty

- Josh Heupel

- Randy Fasani

- Kurt Kittner

- Brandon Doman

- Craig Nall

- J.T. O’Sullivan

- Seth Burford

- Jeff Kelly

- Ronald Curry

- Wes Pate

- Brian St. Pierre

- Drew Henson

- Brooks Bollinger

- Kliff Kingsbury

- Gibran Hamdan

- Ken Dorsey

- Craig Krenzel

- Andy Hall

- Josh Harris

- Jim Sorgi

- Jeff Smoker

- John Navarre

- Cody Pickett

- Casey Bramlet

- Matt Mauck

- B.J. Symons

- Bradlee Van Pelt

- Dan Orlovsky

- Adrian McPherson

- Derek Anderson

- Matt Cassel

- Ryan Fitzpatrick 

- Ingle Martin

- Omar Jacobs

- Bruce Gradkowski

- D.J. Shockley

- Jeff Rowe

- Troy Smith

- Jordan Palmer

- Tyler Thigpen

- John David Booty

- Dennis Dixon

- Josh Johnson

- Erik Ainge

- Colt Brennan

- Andre Woodson

- Matt Flynn

- Alex Brink

- Rhett Bomar

- Nate Davis

- Tom Brandstater

- Mike Teel

- Keith Null

- Curtis Painter

- John Skelton

- Jonathan Crompton

- Rusty Smith

- Dan LeFevour

- Joe Webb

- Tony Pike

- Levi Brown

- Sean Canfield

- Zac Robinson

- Ricky Stanzi

- T.J. Yates 

- Nathan Enderle

- Tyrod Taylor

- Greg McElroy

- Ryan Lindley

- BJ Coleman

- Chandler Harnish

- Brad Sorenson

- Zac Dysert

- BJ Daniels

- Sean Renfree

- Aaron Murray

- AJ McCarron

- Zach Mettenberger

- David Fales

- Keith Wenning

- Taj Boyd

- Garrett Gilbert

- Brett Hundley

- Trevor Siemian

- Kevin Hogan

- Nate Sudfeld

- Jake Ruddock

- Brandon Allen

- Jeff Driskel

- Brandon Doughty

- Nathan Peterman

- Brad Kaaya

- Chad Kelly

- Mike White

- Luke Falk

- Tanner Lee

- Danny Etling

- Alex McGough

- Logan Woodside

 

The best 3 players on the list are Tyrod, Fitz and McCarron. We always hear “yeah but Tom Brady.” The reality is that is a total outlier. 

 

 

 

 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

22 hours ago, The Jerk said:

I think I'd rather see J Peterman start.

 

Either Peterman is likely to go mad from the pressure (retail or DB picks) and eventually end up in the jungles of Burma.  (You most likely know it as Myanmar.)

[Captain Hindsight]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I also think there is a very good possibility that they go with 2 on the 53.  Hell last year they only carried 3 because their 3rd QB was a core special teamer ?. Peterman is now the clear #3. He came into camp on the back of a strong OTAs and minicamp period, he took the first snaps with the 1s on day 1 of camp and then has been clearly passed by AJ (who took all the snaps with the 1s in the 11 v 11 portion yesterday as per Cover 1 - Allen and Peterman both got a few in 7 on 7) and Allen has been a little up and down but has had one of those days (day 3) that really excites you about him and his potential.  

 

I still strongly suspect Allen is the 3rd guy in for the 1st pre-season game but that is likely based on seniority and sticking with the "process" at this stage. By pre-season game 2 he will have jumped Nate unless something dramatic happens between now and then.  

 

As for would anyone poach Peterman? I'd be shocked if they did. 

If they did, would we even care? 

[prissythecat]

6 hours ago, BurpleBull said:

 

Wait a second, wasn't your point that he couldn't generate the same improved zip behind a pass, if his feet weren't set in the pocket, but rather on the move?

 

I provide evidence that he can do it, because he has done it...

 

Now your argument is that the completion used as evidence to support Peterman's development was made too far down the field to count.

 

 

 

 

Yours is looking increasingly like a sinking ship.    Why keep propping Peterman up?

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, BurpleBull said:

 

Wait a second, wasn't your point that he couldn't generate the same improved zip behind a pass, if his feet weren't set in the pocket, but rather on the move?

 

I provide evidence that he can do it, because he has done it...

 

Now your argument is that the completion used as evidence to support Peterman's development was made too far down the field to count.

 

 

 

Do you understand what the term "zip" means as it relates to QBs?

 

It has to do with throwing on a rope, not the high-arching trajectory of a "bomb."

 

Big difference.

 

Try again.

[Wily Dog]

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

For some perspective on the likelihood of Peterman developing, here is a list. Since 2001 these are the QBs drafted in the 5th round or later:

- Mike McMahon

- A.J. Feeley

- Josh Booty

- Josh Heupel

- Randy Fasani

- Kurt Kittner

- Brandon Doman

- Craig Nall

- J.T. O’Sullivan

- Seth Burford

- Jeff Kelly

- Ronald Curry

- Wes Pate

- Brian St. Pierre

- Drew Henson

- Brooks Bollinger

- Kliff Kingsbury

- Gibran Hamdan

- Ken Dorsey

- Craig Krenzel

- Andy Hall

- Josh Harris

- Jim Sorgi

- Jeff Smoker

- John Navarre

- Cody Pickett

- Casey Bramlet

- Matt Mauck

- B.J. Symons

- Bradlee Van Pelt

- Dan Orlovsky

- Adrian McPherson

- Derek Anderson

- Matt Cassel

- Ryan Fitzpatrick 

- Ingle Martin

- Omar Jacobs

- Bruce Gradkowski

- D.J. Shockley

- Jeff Rowe

- Troy Smith

- Jordan Palmer

- Tyler Thigpen

- John David Booty

- Dennis Dixon

- Josh Johnson

- Erik Ainge

- Colt Brennan

- Andre Woodson

- Matt Flynn

- Alex Brink

- Rhett Bomar

- Nate Davis

- Tom Brandstater

- Mike Teel

- Keith Null

- Curtis Painter

- John Skelton

- Jonathan Crompton

- Rusty Smith

- Dan LeFevour

- Joe Webb

- Tony Pike

- Levi Brown

- Sean Canfield

- Zac Robinson

- Ricky Stanzi

- T.J. Yates 

- Nathan Enderle

- Tyrod Taylor

- Greg McElroy

- Ryan Lindley

- BJ Coleman

- Chandler Harnish

- Brad Sorenson

- Zac Dysert

- BJ Daniels

- Sean Renfree

- Aaron Murray

- AJ McCarron

- Zach Mettenberger

- David Fales

- Keith Wenning

- Taj Boyd

- Garrett Gilbert

- Brett Hundley

- Trevor Siemian

- Kevin Hogan

- Nate Sudfeld

- Jake Ruddock

- Brandon Allen

- Jeff Driskel

- Brandon Doughty

- Nathan Peterman

- Brad Kaaya

- Chad Kelly

- Mike White

- Luke Falk

- Tanner Lee

- Danny Etling

- Alex McGough

- Logan Woodside

 

The best 3 players on the list are Tyrod, Fitz and McCarron. We always hear “yeah but Tom Brady.” The reality is that is a total outlier. 

 

 

 

 

 

The only thing this proves is, the earlier you draft Qb's is the odds of success are enhanced. In the 4th round of the draft from the same period there is one, Zac Presscott  and  a couple of journeymen..BUT and this a once in a few seasons of football there is a player who struggles out of the abyss and becomes a star. You , me or the so called experts  don't know who it is  or else they would be in the employ of one ofthe teams of the NFL.

 

Edited July 30, 2018 by Wily Dog
SP

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

For some perspective on the likelihood of Peterman developing, here is a list. Since 2001 these are the QBs drafted in the 5th round or later:

()-

The best 3 players on the list are Tyrod, Fitz and McCarron. We always hear “yeah but Tom Brady.” The reality is that is a total outlier.

 

Dan Orlovsky and Derek Anderson say "hi". 

I mean, not that Orlovsky was Tyrod or Fitz, but ~= McCarron

I'd put Anderson between Fitz and McCarron.

 

OK, OK, I take your overall point - the 5th or later is a sad place to find a QB

 

[Cripple Creek]

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The reality is that is a total outlier. 

 

So you’re saying there’s a chance?

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, Wily Dog said:

 

The only thing this proves is, the earlier you draft Qb's is the odds of success are enhanced. In the 4th round of the draft from the same period there is one, Zac Presscott  and  a couple of journeymen..BUT and this a once in a few seasons of football there is a player who struggles out of the abyss and becomes a star. You , me or the so called experts  don't know who it is  or else they would be in the employ of one ofthe teams of the NFL.

 

You mean Dak Prescott? 

 

You show me who on that list came on to be a star? Tyrod is the best of that whole group and I count 102 players. People can have these delusions about late round guys becoming stars but this is the list. Those are the last 102 guys drafted fron rounds 5 through 7. Instead of cherry picking one random success story (ie Brady) let’s look at the overwhelming majority and what they achieved in the league. That scenario is WAY more likely.

37 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Dan Orlovsky and Derek Anderson say "hi". 

I mean, not that Orlovsky was Tyrod or Fitz, but ~= McCarron

I'd put Anderson between Fitz and McCarron.

 

OK, OK, I take your overall point - the 5th or later is a sad place to find a QB

 

Anderson, Siemian, Cassel, Feeley and Gradkowski are the only others that had any careers. 

Edited July 30, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[JohnC]

6 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

For some perspective on the likelihood of Peterman developing, here is a list. Since 2001 these are the QBs drafted in the 5th round or later:

- Mike McMahon

- A.J. Feeley

- Josh Booty

- Josh Heupel

- Randy Fasani

- Kurt Kittner

- Brandon Doman

- Craig Nall

- J.T. O’Sullivan

- Seth Burford

- Jeff Kelly

- Ronald Curry

- Wes Pate

- Brian St. Pierre

- Drew Henson

- Brooks Bollinger

- Kliff Kingsbury

- Gibran Hamdan

- Ken Dorsey

- Craig Krenzel

- Andy Hall

- Josh Harris

- Jim Sorgi

- Jeff Smoker

- John Navarre

- Cody Pickett

- Casey Bramlet

- Matt Mauck

- B.J. Symons

- Bradlee Van Pelt

- Dan Orlovsky

- Adrian McPherson

- Derek Anderson

- Matt Cassel

- Ryan Fitzpatrick 

- Ingle Martin

- Omar Jacobs

- Bruce Gradkowski

- D.J. Shockley

- Jeff Rowe

- Troy Smith

- Jordan Palmer

- Tyler Thigpen

- John David Booty

- Dennis Dixon

- Josh Johnson

- Erik Ainge

- Colt Brennan

- Andre Woodson

- Matt Flynn

- Alex Brink

- Rhett Bomar

- Nate Davis

- Tom Brandstater

- Mike Teel

- Keith Null

- Curtis Painter

- John Skelton

- Jonathan Crompton

- Rusty Smith

- Dan LeFevour

- Joe Webb

- Tony Pike

- Levi Brown

- Sean Canfield

- Zac Robinson

- Ricky Stanzi

- T.J. Yates 

- Nathan Enderle

- Tyrod Taylor

- Greg McElroy

- Ryan Lindley

- BJ Coleman

- Chandler Harnish

- Brad Sorenson

- Zac Dysert

- BJ Daniels

- Sean Renfree

- Aaron Murray

- AJ McCarron

- Zach Mettenberger

- David Fales

- Keith Wenning

- Taj Boyd

- Garrett Gilbert

- Brett Hundley

- Trevor Siemian

- Kevin Hogan

- Nate Sudfeld

- Jake Ruddock

- Brandon Allen

- Jeff Driskel

- Brandon Doughty

- Nathan Peterman

- Brad Kaaya

- Chad Kelly

- Mike White

- Luke Falk

- Tanner Lee

- Danny Etling

- Alex McGough

- Logan Woodside

 

The best 3 players on the list are Tyrod, Fitz and McCarron. We always hear “yeah but Tom Brady.” The reality is that is a total outlier. 

 

 

 

 

Few people expect a fifth round selected qb to be a starter in this league. If you look at your very undistinguished list you will find a number of qbs who have remained in this league for quite a while as a backup or a backup to the backup. If you draft a qb in the fifth round and he is able to survive and hold on to a roster spot for a number of years, even if the qb becomes a vagabond qb for a number of teams then that pick certainly can be considered a worthwhile pick. As an example Kurt Kitner carved out a long career as a backup. He certainly was a useful player serving a role and an asset to the teams he played for. You get what you get and use what you got. The backside of the  roster is not the front side of the roster. But that is not to say that there isn't a useful purpose for the back of the line players.

[Kirby Jackson]

16 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Few people expect a fifth round selected qb to be a starter in this league. If you look at your very undistinguished list you will find a number of qbs who have remained in this league for quite a while as a backup or a backup to the backup. If you draft a qb in the fifth round and he is able to survive and hold on to a roster spot for a number of years, even if the qb becomes a vagabond qb for a number of teams then that pick certainly can be considered a worthwhile pick. As an example Kurt Kitner carved out a long career as a backup. He certainly was a useful player serving a role and an asset to the teams he played for. You get what you get and use what you got. The backside of the  roster is not the front side of the roster. But that is not to say that there isn't a useful purpose for the back of the line players.

Kittner was on an active roster for 2 years. That isn’t that long of a career. What happens after a couple of years is these teams swing again and again and again. You don’t get a lot of chances to prove that you can’t play. 

[JohnC]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Kittner was on an active roster for 2 years. That isn’t that long of a career. What happens after a couple of years is these teams swing again and again and again. You don’t get a lot of chances to prove that you can’t play. 

I mistakenly was thinking of John Kitna who was drafted in 1996 and played in the league for a number of teams until 2013. My mistake. Vagabond qbs have a tendency to look alike. ?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

11 hours ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

Still think their is a possibility they roll with 2 QBs on the active roster, as I've said previously.

 

If they try to stick Peterman on the PS, is there really any team that's going to try to sign him to their active roster? Especially after what he's put on film?

 

 

...Peterman was a 5th.....a damn FIFTH (and NOT 25.4 ounces for you imbibers).....nowhere have I read (other than Chuckie's usual QB drool) the he is the next "Tom Brady a round early"....OR......a Mayfield-Rosen-Darnold (left out Allen because of the el busto naysayers here) gem "four rounds later"...early on reports (HINT" practice and NO live ammo) suggest he's progressing.....so why not a gamble on the PS?.....a poacher would have to add him to their active 53 which may be a tall order.... but the kid by most accounts is working his tail off to get better, a quality that REALLY sucks IMO.....

[Wayne Cubed]

2 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...Peterman was a 5th.....a damn FIFTH (and NOT 25.4 ounces for you imbibers).....nowhere have I read (other than Chuckie's usual QB drool) the he is the next "Tom Brady a round early"....OR......a Mayfield-Rosen-Darnold (left out Allen because of the el busto naysayers here) gem "four rounds later"...early on reports (HINT" practice and NO live ammo) suggest he's progressing.....so why not a gamble on the PS?.....a poacher would have to add him to their active 53 which may be a tall order.... but the kid by most accounts is working his tail off to get better, a quality that REALLY sucks IMO.....

 

Ummmm huh?

 

Did you not read where I posted “active roster” and “stick him on the practice squad”?

 

And yea he’s a 5th rounder but he’s not different than a Cardale Jones or Levi Brown. Easily expendable.

[SouthNYfan]

7 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

For some perspective on the likelihood of Peterman developing, here is a list. Since 2001 these are the QBs drafted in the 5th round or later:

- Mike McMahon

- A.J. Feeley

- Josh Booty

- Josh Heupel

- Randy Fasani

- Kurt Kittner

- Brandon Doman

- Craig Nall

- J.T. O’Sullivan

- Seth Burford

- Jeff Kelly

- Ronald Curry

- Wes Pate

- Brian St. Pierre

- Drew Henson

- Brooks Bollinger

- Kliff Kingsbury

- Gibran Hamdan

- Ken Dorsey

- Craig Krenzel

- Andy Hall

- Josh Harris

- Jim Sorgi

- Jeff Smoker

- John Navarre

- Cody Pickett

- Casey Bramlet

- Matt Mauck

- B.J. Symons

- Bradlee Van Pelt

- Dan Orlovsky

- Adrian McPherson

- Derek Anderson

- Matt Cassel

- Ryan Fitzpatrick 

- Ingle Martin

- Omar Jacobs

- Bruce Gradkowski

- D.J. Shockley

- Jeff Rowe

- Troy Smith

- Jordan Palmer

- Tyler Thigpen

- John David Booty

- Dennis Dixon

- Josh Johnson

- Erik Ainge

- Colt Brennan

- Andre Woodson

- Matt Flynn

- Alex Brink

- Rhett Bomar

- Nate Davis

- Tom Brandstater

- Mike Teel

- Keith Null

- Curtis Painter

- John Skelton

- Jonathan Crompton

- Rusty Smith

- Dan LeFevour

- Joe Webb

- Tony Pike

- Levi Brown

- Sean Canfield

- Zac Robinson

- Ricky Stanzi

- T.J. Yates 

- Nathan Enderle

- Tyrod Taylor

- Greg McElroy

- Ryan Lindley

- BJ Coleman

- Chandler Harnish

- Brad Sorenson

- Zac Dysert

- BJ Daniels

- Sean Renfree

- Aaron Murray

- AJ McCarron

- Zach Mettenberger

- David Fales

- Keith Wenning

- Taj Boyd

- Garrett Gilbert

- Brett Hundley

- Trevor Siemian

- Kevin Hogan

- Nate Sudfeld

- Jake Ruddock

- Brandon Allen

- Jeff Driskel

- Brandon Doughty

- Nathan Peterman

- Brad Kaaya

- Chad Kelly

- Mike White

- Luke Falk

- Tanner Lee

- Danny Etling

- Alex McGough

- Logan Woodside

 

The best 3 players on the list are Tyrod, Fitz and McCarron. We always hear “yeah but Tom Brady.” The reality is that is a total outlier. 

 

 

 

 

 

Romo was undrafted in 2003.

Can toss him into the "outlier" category with Brady