Bills the worst team in the NFL this season?

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, JOSH HUFF said:

I have to think that this is a rough season,  especially if they through all the picks in for a QB.  O-line is a mess, best players are old, no proven QB.  Right now we look like the Browns of the past few years.  Speaking of the Browns they will be much better this season.    

Well, we don't really resemble the Browns roster-wise since they were a very young team last year. In some ways, their horrible performance was more forgivable, or at least understandable than if a team with lots of age at a lot of key positions finishes near the bottom.

[Logic]

Yeah, people said they'd be the worst team in the NFL LAST season, too. How did that work out?

That being said, it won't surprise me to see them regress this year, especially if they start a rookie QB. Anywhere from 6-10 to 10-6 is the range, in my opinion.

[HOUSE]

Another pay per click victim.....Got ya.....3 cents please 

Edited April 21, 2018 by HOUSE

[thurst44]

1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Valid point. And (although lots of teams can play the same game here, so maybe it's not fair doing this for our team?) we have to remember that point differential in 2017 was inflated by 2 disastrous losses - the Peterman Game (as it shall forevermore be known) and that Saints blowout. Take those games away, and we look a lot more like a legit 9-7 last year.

I am also wary about fairness, but it is about a very specific, almost unique (although Chiefs had a similar seasonal arc) way these losses happened. It's not just a matter of removing the 3 worst games, but a 3 game stretch where the team played markedly different from the rest of the year. I'm a huge fan of 538, going back to Nate's days as Poblano, and would genuinely be curious to hear their opinions as to whether the specific way the season happened has an effect. I'm also curious to hear if making the playoffs has an impact, since the four teams worse than the Bills in differential who made the playoffs went from an aggregate 32-32 to 35-29 the following season. 

[Mojo44]

The team will be better simply because whoever starts at quarterback will be much better than the crap we had for the last two years!

[The Frankish Reich]

1 minute ago, thurst44 said:

I am also wary about fairness, but it is about a very specific, almost unique (although Chiefs had a similar seasonal arc) way these losses happened. It's not just a matter of removing the 3 worst games, but a 3 game stretch where the team played markedly different from the rest of the year. I'm a huge fan of 538, going back to Nate's days as Poblano, and would genuinely be curious to hear their opinions as to whether the specific way the season happened has an effect. I'm also curious to hear if making the playoffs has an impact, since the four teams worse than the Bills in differential who made the playoffs went from an aggregate 32-32 to 35-29 the following season. 

That last stat is interesting. Are you talking about 2016 to 2017?

1 minute ago, Mojo44 said:

The team will be better simply because whoever starts at quarterback will be much better than the crap we had for the last two years!

Well ... do we know that? That McCarron will be better than Tyrod? And even if he is, what if he goes down for at least a few games ... Nate Peterman? Really?

[thurst44]

6 minutes ago, JOSH HUFF said:

I have to think that this is a rough season,  especially if they through all the picks in for a QB.  O-line is a mess, best players are old, no proven QB.  Right now we look like the Browns of the past few years.  Speaking of the Browns they will be much better this season.    

Not all best players are old: Tre White, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer. I'm excited for Milano and Dawkins (and even Zay Jones) next year. Kelvin Benjamin is great if healthy.

 

Browns, really?!?! Let's not get carried away...but yes, they will probably be much better. It would be hard not to. 

2 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

That last stat is interesting. Are you talking about 2016 to 2017?

Well ... do we know that? That McCarron will be better than Tyrod? And even if he is, what if he goes down for at least a few games ... Nate Peterman? Really?

Ah, no, I mean the four teams who made the playoffs with a worse point differentials. The 7-9 2010 Seattle Seahawks, the 8-8 2011 Denver Broncos, the 8-8 2004 St. Louis Rams (ha, almost wrote L.A.), and the 9-7 1989 Pittsburgh Steelers. 

 

And I agree with you about the QBs: we don't know, and that is one reason I can see the potential for disaster. Tyrod had his flaws, but his ability to not turnover the football kept the Bills in a lot of games. AJ has actually shown a similar knack in college and limited pro experience. However, he definitely does not have the ability to keep a drive alive with his legs and that's pretty objective. Looked up his college rushing yards...an almost unfathomable -50 career yards. He's a wild card, but look at Case Keenum. 

[The Frankish Reich]

1 minute ago, thurst44 said:

Not all best players are old: Tre White, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer. I'm excited for Milano and Dawkins (and even Zay Jones) next year. Kelvin Benjamin is great if healthy.

 

Browns, really?!?! Let's not get carried away...but yes, they will probably be much better. It would be hard not to. 

Agreed. The Bills will definitely have a younger roster in 2018 than they did at the start of 2017:  

http://www.phillyvoice.com/ranking-nfl-teams-age-after-53-man-cutdowns-2017-edition/

Interesting: we went from 3rd youngest roster in 2013, to 10th youngest (2014), 10th again (2015), 22nd (2016), to 30th (in other words, 3rd oldest) last year. Other than the Browns (who are, well, special), you generally see the youngest teams from 3 or 4 years ago making great strides - not surprising, since teams control draft picks for 4 or 5 years. So look at the 5 youngest teams in 2013:

Rams

Browns

Bills

Seahawks (what happened there? I think it's Pete Carroll hubris)

Jags

 

Problem with the Bills is that 2016-17 should have been their peak, and if their peak is "just squeaking into the playoffs" that's not that satisfying. I blame (mostly) Rex and (secondly) Whaley.

[klos63]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Obviously you care or you wouldn't be posting as is everyone who's responded in this thread and the 1000's who likely read the article.  It's an article which he's paid to write in the hopes that people read and talk about which is what is happening here.  There are only 256 wins in an NFL season (unless you're ESPN) so looking at it objectively that's what he thinks they will add up to.  It has nothing to do with EGO, he's just doing his job, but god help anyone who says anything in the slightest negative about the Bills. Then he becomes this terrible person.  Will he be right, who knows, probably some teams records will be close to his predictions, but some will be way off either better or worse.

 

I'm sure if he had predicted an 11-5 record he'd be praised around here.  Jay S predicted 6-10, so is he on an ego trip also??

No it's not obvious that I care, since I don't. It's obvious that I read threads on TBD and sometimes comment on them. Doesn't mean I care.   My comment has nothing to do with his prediction being 'negative' about the Bills, but about the whole idea of predicting team records. I didn't say he's a terrible person... where are you coming up with all this crap?

[The Frankish Reich]

54 minutes ago, thurst44 said:

Not all best players are old: Tre White, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer. I'm excited for Milano and Dawkins (and even Zay Jones) next year. Kelvin Benjamin is great if healthy.

 

Browns, really?!?! Let's not get carried away...but yes, they will probably be much better. It would be hard not to. 

Ah, no, I mean the four teams who made the playoffs with a worse point differentials. The 7-9 2010 Seattle Seahawks, the 8-8 2011 Denver Broncos, the 8-8 2004 St. Louis Rams (ha, almost wrote L.A.), and the 9-7 1989 Pittsburgh Steelers. 

 

And I agree with you about the QBs: we don't know, and that is one reason I can see the potential for disaster. Tyrod had his flaws, but his ability to not turnover the football kept the Bills in a lot of games. AJ has actually shown a similar knack in college and limited pro experience. However, he definitely does not have the ability to keep a drive alive with his legs and that's pretty objective. Looked up his college rushing yards...an almost unfathomable -50 career yards. He's a wild card, but look at Case Keenum. 

Got it - thanks. That McCarron rushing stat is a fun one. How could any college QB on a good team not rack up at least, say, 100 yards rushing in a season?

EDIT: as for the stat on teams with worse point differentials than the Bills who made the playoffs - the improved record the following season is completely explained by 2 words: Peyton Manning.  Although to be fair, you are correct that these teams didn't regress, despite featuring QBs such as Bubby Brister and Tarvaris Jackson ....  Unrelated point: Tarvaris Jackson wasn't horrible for the Seahawks. Just ordinary not good. I'm still surprised he didn't get another legitimate shot, I mean, it's not like the Bills were playing a future HOFer or anything ....

Edited April 21, 2018 by The Frankish Reich

[SouthNYfan]

48 minutes ago, thurst44 said:

Not all best players are old: Tre White, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer. I'm excited for Milano and Dawkins (and even Zay Jones) next year. Kelvin Benjamin is great if healthy.

 

Browns, really?!?! Let's not get carried away...but yes, they will probably be much better. It would be hard not to. 

Ah, no, I mean the four teams who made the playoffs with a worse point differentials. The 7-9 2010 Seattle Seahawks, the 8-8 2011 Denver Broncos, the 8-8 2004 St. Louis Rams (ha, almost wrote L.A.), and the 9-7 1989 Pittsburgh Steelers. 

 

And I agree with you about the QBs: we don't know, and that is one reason I can see the potential for disaster. Tyrod had his flaws, but his ability to not turnover the football kept the Bills in a lot of games. AJ has actually shown a similar knack in college and limited pro experience. However, he definitely does not have the ability to keep a drive alive with his legs and that's pretty objective. Looked up his college rushing yards...an almost unfathomable -50 career yards. He's a wild card, but look at Case Keenum. 

 

3 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Got it - thanks. That McCarron rushing stat is a fun one. How could any college QB on a good team not rack up at least, say, 100 yards rushing in a season?

 

College counts sacks as "negative rushing yards" against QBs, so a QB who is a pocket guy winds up with negative yards.

 

[Solomon Grundy]

11 hours ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

Now personally I think this guy is a pigdick and probably eats paint, but that’s just my opinion...

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/04/20/2018-nfl-season-buffalo-bills-espn-worst-team-in-nfl/amp/

More click bait!! Here's a guy who don't know what type of offensive scheme the Bills will run. Don't know who they will draft/pick up in post draft free agency to fill holes. This is a pure lazy assessment of this team and lazy statement, period

[thurst44]

50 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Agreed. The Bills will definitely have a younger roster in 2018 than they did at the start of 2017:  

http://www.phillyvoice.com/ranking-nfl-teams-age-after-53-man-cutdowns-2017-edition/

Interesting: we went from 3rd youngest roster in 2013, to 10th youngest (2014), 10th again (2015), 22nd (2016), to 30th (in other words, 3rd oldest) last year. Other than the Browns (who are, well, special), you generally see the youngest teams from 3 or 4 years ago making great strides - not surprising, since teams control draft picks for 4 or 5 years. So look at the 5 youngest teams in 2013:

Rams

Browns

Bills

Seahawks (what happened there? I think it's Pete Carroll hubris)

Jags

 

Problem with the Bills is that 2016-17 should have been their peak, and if their peak is "just squeaking into the playoffs" that's not that satisfying. I blame (mostly) Rex and (secondly) Whaley.

Interesting observation. Seahawks did well early in that one, Jags and Rams only came on this season (although I certainly would not bet against the two of them in the SB next year, but Rams could flame out quickly as they are flirting with salary cap calamity). Browns, well, we'll see, as of now they are 1-15 and 0-16 in the last few years. We'll also see with us, but I do ultimately suspect 2018 could be a step back for a 2019 run. I'm just not counting us out yet.

 

10 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

 

College counts sacks as "negative rushing yards" against QBs, so a QB who is a pocket guy winds up with negative yards.

 

Ok, then Tyrod had 2196 college rushing yards vs. A.J.'s -50, but I don't think anyone's arguing AJ will be better at running than Tyrod. And, similarly, I'm not saying  he won't beat Tyrod by keeping more drives alive with more accurate passing. There's nothing to prove or disprove that. He's a wild card with some intrigue. If we can get the o-line to where the QB is not getting killed every time, then I hope we get a QB like Rosen and take a shot at going with him, maybe start 1-4, but see if they come on at (what appears to be) the easier tail end of the season. 

Edited April 21, 2018 by thurst44
hadn't finished one of the responses

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, HOUSE said:

Another pay per click victim.....Got ya.....3 cents please 

 

...but I have a coupon............BOGO.............

[SouthNYfan]

1 minute ago, thurst44 said:

Interesting observation. Seahawks did well early in that one, Jags and Rams only came on this season (although I certainly would not bet against the two of them in the SB next year, but Rams could flame out quickly as they are flirting with salary cap calamity). Browns, well, we'll see, as of now they are 1-15 and 0-16 in the last few years

 

Ok, then Tyrod had 2196 college rushing yards vs. A.J.'s -50, but I don't think anyone's arguing AJ will be better at running than Tyrod. And, similarly, I'm not saying  he won't beat Tyrod by keeping more drives alive with more accurate passing. There's nothing to prove or disprove that. He's a wild card with some intrigue. If we can get the o-line to where the QB is not getting killed every time, then I hope we get a QB like Rosen and take a shot at going with him, maybe start 1-4, but see if they come on at (what appears to be) the easier tail end of the season. 

 

Oh I wasn't arguing about aj vs tyrod

I was just just answering your question as to how a guy finish with negative rushing yards.

Pocket QBs who don't run at all wind up with this.

I think we might be in for a rude awakening having a pocket QB without an actual pocket producing OLine.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

3 hours ago, SinceThe70s said:

??

Years ago, a couple of friends ran a small Buffalocentric sports paper as part of a journalism class they were in.  Each issue had an underlying theme, the 'f*** you' issue took on anyone who the editors figured screwed a Buffalo sports team.  Whether it was an opposing player, national sportscaster, or even a hometown player or coach they felt had done harm or disservice to the team, the offender was blasted.  'SinceThe70s' middle digit there gave me a good laugh.  Had the editors been 40 years later, they would probably have a website.

[The Frankish Reich]

6 minutes ago, thurst44 said:

Interesting observation. Seahawks did well early in that one, Jags and Rams only came on this season (although I certainly would not bet against the two of them in the SB next year, but Rams could flame out quickly as they are flirting with salary cap calamity). Browns, well, we'll see, as of now they are 1-15 and 0-16 in the last few years. We'll also see with us, but I do ultimately suspect 2018 could be a step back for a 2019 run. I'm just not counting us out yet.

 

Rams (and Jags for that matter) seem to be following the MLB script written by the Astros and the Royals and Cubs before that - let all your young talent mature, then in the last year or two while they're under team control, start mortgaging the future to go for that championship.  Of course, the Browns embarked on the same course, but still haven't shown that it's time for them to start making the big push.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

8 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...but I have a coupon............BOGO.............

No BOGO, but you can redeem it for a Bells Whammy Weenie.

[US Egg]

The league porked the Bills with making them open with 5 of 7 on the road  because they want a new stadium built here.

 

Add a raw QB and 'O' line, weak receiving core, iffy 'D', I see major regression.....

 

.....and a lot of empty seats at New Era in come Nov.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 minutes ago, Ifartalot said:

The league porked the Bills with making them open with 5 of 7 on the road  because they want a new stadium built here.

 

Add a raw QB and 'O' line, weak receiving core, iffy 'D', I see major regression.....

 

.....and a lot of empty seats at New Era in come Nov.

 

....how so if "other than divisional opponents" are part of a long standing pre-set formula?.....where can the "stick it to manipulation" occur or did I miss the memo??...........

[The Frankish Reich]

17 minutes ago, Ifartalot said:

The league porked the Bills with making them open with 5 of 7 on the road  because they want a new stadium built here.

 

Add a raw QB and 'O' line, weak receiving core, iffy 'D', I see major regression.....

 

.....and a lot of empty seats at New Era in come Nov.

I just don't think "how can we screw over the Bills" crosses the NFL's mind.  We're just not that ... relevant.

But I do agree with the 2nd part of the comment - I'm pretty skeptical about our chances for success this year, and I do think some of those late season games will lead to a lot of the "You can get a ticket on Stubhub for 5 bucks" posts ...

[reddogblitz]

5 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Pats

Chiefs

Steelers

Jags

Chargers

Raiders

Jaguars

 

That's 7 better

Titans are probably a coinflip

Broncos are better if keenum is even 70% of what he did last year

 

That's nice. It's like your opinion  man.  I go by final standings and draft order. The way the NFL judges it, not SouthNYFan's opinion.

[Doc Brown]

5 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

EJ Gaines and Deonte Thompson were "solid starters"??  What a joke.

Deonte Thompson isn't, but EJ Gaines definitely is in our system.  He was the 13th ranked cb in the league by PFF last year.  What are you talking about?

[SouthNYfan]

1 hour ago, reddogblitz said:

 

That's nice. It's like your opinion  man.  I go by final standings and draft order. The way the NFL judges it, not SouthNYFan's opinion.

 

Last year's records are all that matters.

Obviously.

Not what happens in the off-season or anything.

 

[The Frankish Reich]

I understand the "no doom and gloom" posts, but I can't understand the refusal to face reality. Our best 3 offensive linemen are gone. Two of them, no fault of the Bills, but still. Our QB is gone, and I'm one of the fans who thinks it was a smart move for the longer term (post-2018 season), but I can't see how swapping Tyrod for McCarron makes us objectively better in the short term. Our #1 guy in tackles is gone, and so far there's nobody to replace him. Are we supposed to ignore all that and just say that Beane will work some kind of magic?

[whatdrought]

Starting now, my basis for whether or not a prediction holds weight will be looking to see who they have as #1 in the NFC. If that's the Rams, I will know that they are nothing but hype whores. 

 

(That isn't to say that the Rams can't win the NFC, but I sincerely doubt they will.) 

 

 

Also, My prediction for 3 worst teams: 

 

Dolphins

Bengals 

Cardinals (which, they could surprise, but my guess is that Bradford plays hurt and they end up finally giving Fitz his freedom and trade him to a contender (either Min, or LAC) mid-season.)

[DCOrange]

For what it’s worth, the Bills O/U in Vegas is 6.5 wins

[PromoTheRobot]

15 hours ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

Now personally I think this guy is a pigdick and probably eats paint, but that’s just my opinion...

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/04/20/2018-nfl-season-buffalo-bills-espn-worst-team-in-nfl/amp/

 

Right now, with the current roster, we probably are. Even if we get a stud QB, it will take at least another off-season to put together any semblance of a competitive team.

 

Breaking the playoff drought, I think, bought McBeane a mulligan season. Without calling it a tank, we are in effect tanking this year, unless the pro and college scouts are miracle workers and find every low-round/UDFA diamond.

Edited April 21, 2018 by PromoTheRobot

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1 hour ago, whatdrought said:

..I will know that they are nothing but hype whores. 

 

 

'hype whores'...that's got a nice ring to it.  Describes a lot of the people  putting out information that's on the web.

Edited April 21, 2018 by Ridgewaycynic2013
Sounds better the second way.

[Don Beebe]

17 hours ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

Now personally I think this guy is a pigdick and probably eats paint, but that’s just my opinion...

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/04/20/2018-nfl-season-buffalo-bills-espn-worst-team-in-nfl/amp/

I think your opinion is correct.

[Mr. WEO]

5 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Deonte Thompson isn't, but EJ Gaines definitely is in our system.  He was the 13th ranked cb in the league by PFF last year.  What are you talking about?

 

 

He played in what, 11 games?

 

"Occasional starter" is more accurate.

[Boatdrinks]

4 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Right now, with the current roster, we probably are. Even if we get a stud QB, it will take at least another off-season to put together any semblance of a competitive team.

 

Breaking the playoff drought, I think, bought McBeane a mulligan season. Without calling it a tank, we are in effect tanking this year, unless the pro and college scouts are miracle workers and find every low-round/UDFA diamond.

It's 100% not a tank, and shouldn't be referred to as one. They are transforming an old team into a young one. Mostly by choice, with a couple unexpected twists. It's a continuation of what they started last season. The team outperformed its flaws, and that's a testament to the coaching staff and GM. The team still has plenty of holes, and likely won't equal last years record. Their goal is to compete for championships , not to " Tank" for some draft pick or whatever. Young players will make mistakes and have growing pains along the way. Previous regimes were content with old , middling teams. 

[Doc Brown]

36 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

He played in what, 11 games?

 

"Occasional starter" is more accurate.

We went 8-3 in those games.  We were 1-4 without him in the lineup.

[Buffaloflash]

19 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

The Mike Clay references in this article are completely off base. Clay, personally, is not predicting the Bills to go an NFL-worst 2-14. He personally projects them to go 5-11 (which is curiously ALSO the worst NFL record in 2018). The referenced prediction is a somewhat arbitrary exercise/experiment in forecasting, which he's entirely open about and not at all personally married to. Check out his Twitter feed on the subject, and his subsequent interactions with #BillsMafia (cited by Rodak as well). Just sayin: bad reporting.

 

But in the spirit of healthy debate: is it THAT unfathomable to Bills fans that the 2018 team (which has very little to do with the 2017 team) might not win many games?

 

19 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

The Mike Clay references in this article are completely off base. Clay, personally, is not predicting the Bills to go an NFL-worst 2-14. He personally projects them to go 5-11 (which is curiously ALSO the worst NFL record in 2018). The referenced prediction is a somewhat arbitrary exercise/experiment in forecasting, which he's entirely open about and not at all personally married to. Check out his Twitter feed on the subject, and his subsequent interactions with #BillsMafia (cited by Rodak as well). Just sayin: bad reporting.

 

But in the spirit of healthy debate: is it THAT unfathomable to Bills fans that the 2018 team (which has very little to do with the 2017 team) might not win many games?

Yes, it's quite unfathomable in this spot!

[aristocrat]

Our run game is going to need some help. Shady was our entire offense last year. Cj Anderson or a high rb pick is needed. If we can get an Alvin kamara type our offense will look good. 

[The Frankish Reich]

6 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Right now, with the current roster, we probably are. Even if we get a stud QB, it will take at least another off-season to put together any semblance of a competitive team.

 

Breaking the playoff drought, I think, bought McBeane a mulligan season. Without calling it a tank, we are in effect tanking this year, unless the pro and college scouts are miracle workers and find every low-round/UDFA diamond.

Exactly. No playoffs in 2018 would have meant McBeane's heads on the chopping block no later than the 2020 postseason. That's about all a coach or GM gets these days - three years to show significant progress. Plus once the playoff drought hit two decades, the pressure on any Bills coach or GM would have been intense. Now, I think they bought themselves an additional year or two. And that's probably a good thing - it means you don't have to make shortsighted decisions; you can let good but not great players walk rather than overpaying them in a desperate attempt to make the playoffs right now.

1 hour ago, Boatdrinks said:

It's 100% not a tank, and shouldn't be referred to as one. They are transforming an old team into a young one. Mostly by choice, with a couple unexpected twists. It's a continuation of what they started last season. The team outperformed its flaws, and that's a testament to the coaching staff and GM. The team still has plenty of holes, and likely won't equal last years record. Their goal is to compete for championships , not to " Tank" for some draft pick or whatever. Young players will make mistakes and have growing pains along the way. Previous regimes were content with old , middling teams. 

Not a tank if by "tank" we mean going full Cleveland Browns or Houston Astros - fielding a truly noncompetitive team while we rebuild. But that's only because we don't have an easy word to fit less drastic rebuilding we're doing right now.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

10 hours ago, klos63 said:

No it's not obvious that I care, since I don't. It's obvious that I read threads on TBD and sometimes comment on them. Doesn't mean I care.   My comment has nothing to do with his prediction being 'negative' about the Bills, but about the whole idea of predicting team records. I didn't say he's a terrible person... where are you coming up with all this crap?

 

The crap is coming from you.  You're the one who's saying he's on an ego trip. Maybe it could be gee his boss told him to right a column predicting everyone's records.  Probably not, but who knows, but do know writing an article that you don't like doesn't make it an ego trip.

[Bing Bong]

Ironically some of TBD would love to have a 2-14 season WE CAN GET A TOP DRAFT PICK!

[The Frankish Reich]

22 hours ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

Now personally I think this guy is a pigdick and probably eats paint, but that’s just my opinion...

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/04/20/2018-nfl-season-buffalo-bills-espn-worst-team-in-nfl/amp/

I went back and looked at the original analysis, and I see what this guy is doing. And it's perfectly defensible and not at all "Bills trolling" or whatever people are accusing him of doing.

Here's how you do projections:

- it is idiocy to project a team to go 14-2 or 2-14. Any sensible projection clusters teams in the 6-10 to 10-6 range; with respect to any individual team, you have to regress heavily to the mean, which is, of course, 8-8. So this guy's "normal" projections do exactly that.

- but it is true that every year somebody goes 14-2 or 13-3, or 2-14 or 3-13. (Or sometimes a team even goes 0-16 or 16-0, although that's very rare.) So he added a "bold" prediction, deliberately creating more spread. And that means a few teams had to sit at the bottom. And in the AFC, it turns out those teams were the Bills and the Dolphins. It doesn't mean he projects the Bills to go 2-14. I think the original article is behind espn's paywall, and I ain't gonna pay for it, but I'm guessing it was a 5-11.

EDIT: Mike Clay is a fantasy football writer. Guess where he has AJ McCarron in the early QB fantasy rankings? A. 32. How many teams are there in the NFL again?

 

Edited April 22, 2018 by The Frankish Reich

[Turk71]

Moron says what?