BIlls' Armchair GM: If trade-up price is too high, Go to Foles!

[IgotBILLStopay]

Ok we have a ton of draft capital. But the reason I am not feeling very optimistic is that we have major holes, especially with the unexpected retirements. Looks like we either give up our entire draft capital to get one of the 3 or 4 QBs (still not sold on Allen) and go with these major holes or fill the holes everywhere else, but have a glaring hole under center (much as I like McCarron's signing - even I know our first option should be someone else as our long term starter.

 

I have seen mocks popping up having the BIlls not giving up an arm and a leg, maybe moving to 6 or 7 and still getting Mayfield or Rosen. That is probably the best case scenario for the Bills - but if QBs go early, that aint gonna happen.

 

So here is my strategy. Wait for the draft. If the QBs we like are gone by the time of our targeted modest trade up (to 6 or 7), then we trade 12 or 22 down to a late first rounder in the 26-31 range. If it is 12, we should maybe get a 26-28, a second and next year's first and if it is 22, we should roughly get a 26-31 and a second.

 

Then offer the 26-31 to Philadelphia for a first. Howie is on record saying the Eagles did not get an offer of a first for Foles. I feel a 22 may be too high for him, but maybe a 26-31 is not too bad. And it is not that Philly has tons of offers. Getting Foles is likely the only way to simultaneously fill all the holes we have with relatively cheap draft picks and also not have a glaring hole under center.

 

I know some people are not sold on Foles - so I am only suggesting it as the fall back option. If a Rosen or Mayfield falls to 6 or 7, trade up without giving up too much draft capital. If not, trading with Philly for Foles does look attractive for both sides. 

Edited April 13, 2018 by IgotBILLStopay

[Bakin]

It’s not the worst idea in the world. 

I’m not sold on Foles - despite his Super Bowl win. But he’s worth a late first if we are desperate. 

 

Honestly i I would rather give it a go with Jackson or Allen or Rudolph....with 22 or later. 

[CaptnCoke11]

Draft capital baby

[Doc Brown]

It's risky giving up a 1st round pick for a journeyman QB on the last year of his contract.  Would we be willing to give Foles a big contract based on a magical playoff run and one good season under a QB friendly Chip Kelly offense?  Why not give AJ a chance and then make a run on Foles next year if you're still unable to draft a franchise QB in next year's draft?  I get the urgency for a QB.  It's the same urgency we had in the 2013 draft that led to us to reach for EJ.  It's the same urgency in 2004 that led us to reach for Losman as Donahoe was frustrated he couldn't find a trading partner for Roethlisberger. 

 

I'm all for trading up to get a QB, but if we can't do that then rebuild your roster with the picks we have.  If that means we're horrible this year with AJ at the helm then so be it.

Edited April 13, 2018 by Doc Brown

[SydneyBillsFan]

Agree, not the worst proposal by any stretch. A potentially acceptable plan B or C.

 

But most - say 90% - of the crowd here are hell bent on getting one or two guys and will be bitterly disappointed if we don't land their guy. For me, that guy is Mayfield. But ultimately, I have faith in Beane to make the right call based on his performance so far.

 

 

[Seanbillsfan2206]

I’ve wanted Foles this whole time. If we made the trade he’d have to get a contract extension 

[greeneblitz]

God no, hasen't played like a franchise QB 99 percent of his career.

[IgotBILLStopay]

2 hours ago, greeneblitz said:

God no, hasen't played like a franchise QB 99 percent of his career.

now that's a stretch

 

Foles record as an Eagles QB (including playoffs):

 

WL 20-11

Completion percent 62%

TD-INT 55-19

QBR 61

[26CornerBlitz]

No!

[billsbackto81]

Considering all the departures through FA and retirement it would be a wise move, but not for a first. OL is on life support. Our LB and WR corps are mediocre at best with Zay possibly getting suspended. Keeping our top picks and going into the season with Foles/ McCarron/ Peterson isn't horrible. Heck, it'd be our best QB line up in 20 years. 

[Seanbillsfan2206]

39 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:

Considering all the departures through FA and retirement it would be a wise move, but not for a first. OL is on life support. Our LB and WR corps are mediocre at best with Zay possibly getting suspended. Keeping our top picks and going into the season with Foles/ McCarron/ Peterson isn't horrible. Heck, it'd be our best QB line up in 20 years. 

I’d be ok with a 1st even. Not 12 though. We’d still have a 1st, 2 2nds, 2 3rds to fill voids. That would be better than trading all those to move up to 2 IMO. I’m sorry but Foles looked like the real deal in the playoffs and especially the Super Bowl. Yeah he had a bad go in St. Louis and Kansas City wasn’t that great either, but in the right system, he’s a hell of a QB..

Edited April 13, 2018 by Seanbillsfan2206

[stuvian]

this doesn't make sense given AJs age

[dave mcbride]

I'm a Foles fan and would be happy to get him. People who label him a journeyman focus way, way too much on his short stint under Jeff Fisher playing in an archaic offensive scheme.

[mead107]

6 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Ok we have a ton of draft capital. But the reason I am not feeling very optimistic is that we have major holes, especially with the unexpected retirements. Looks like we either give up our entire draft capital to get one of the 3 or 4 QBs (still not sold on Allen) and go with these major holes or fill the holes everywhere else, but have a glaring hole under center (much as I like McCarron's signing - even I know our first option should be someone else as our long term starter.

 

I have seen mocks popping up having the BIlls not giving up an arm and a leg, maybe moving to 6 or 7 and still getting Mayfield or Rosen. That is probably the best case scenario for the Bills - but if QBs go early, that aint gonna happen.

 

So here is my strategy. Wait for the draft. If the QBs we like are gone by the time of our targeted modest trade up (to 6 or 7), then we trade 12 or 22 down to a late first rounder in the 26-31 range. If it is 12, we should maybe get a 26-28, a second and next year's first and if it is 22, we should roughly get a 26-31 and a second.

 

Then offer the 26-31 to Philadelphia for a first. Howie is on record saying the Eagles did not get an offer of a first for Foles. I feel a 22 may be too high for him, but maybe a 26-31 is not too bad. And it is not that Philly has tons of offers. Getting Foles is likely the only way to simultaneously fill all the holes we have with relatively cheap draft picks and also not have a glaring hole under center.

 

I know some people are not sold on Foles - so I am only suggesting it as the fall back option. If a Rosen or Mayfield falls to 6 or 7, trade up without giving up too much draft capital. If not, trading with Philly for Foles does look attractive for both sides. 

Nope 

[Freddie's Dead]

1 hour ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

now that's a stretch

 

Foles record as an Eagles QB (including playoffs):

 

WL 20-11

Completion percent 62%

TD-INT 55-19

QBR 61

Compare these to McCarron and extrapolate, they're nearly identical.  McCarron has about 1/6 the game experience, but giving up a first for a McCarron clone would seem risky at best.  Foles is a Dow Joneser, probably more exciting than Tyrod, but I'm for giving AJ a shot before coughing up a first for Foles.

[KDIGGZ]

Foles was not very good this time last year and was about to retire to be a pastor.  Now he's the savior of the franchise?  Or is it more likely that he was on a great team with a top OC/HC that dumbed down the playbook for him and just did what he had to do to not screw it up too bad over a 3 game stretch?

[MarlinTheMagician]

I am with this - not much reason to think Foles is better than McCarron

[26CornerBlitz]

16 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

Foles was not very good this time last year and was about to retire to be a pastor.  Now he's the savior of the franchise?  Or is it more likely that he was on a great team with a top OC/HC that dumbed down the playbook for him and just did what he had to do to not screw it up too bad over a 3 game stretch?

 

Haven't we had enough of retread QBs as the guy to lead the Bills past mediocrity?   Beyond that, the OP, like many others, ignores The Eagles situation with Wentz and the value they place on Foles as a cheap insurance policy.  

Edited April 13, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[NoSaint]

3 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

Foles was not very good this time last year and was about to retire to be a pastor.  Now he's the savior of the franchise?  Or is it more likely that he was on a great team with a top OC/HC that dumbed down the playbook for him and just did what he had to do to not screw it up too bad over a 3 game stretch?

 

The flip side being that if 4 guys go in the top 5 and we don’t get one.... are we better off taking a guy like Rudolph? 

 

As a plan b (or maybe c, d or e) - grabbing roquan at 12, trading back from 22 a little to add assets, and going foles late 1, and then having 5 day 2 picks to address WR, OL and a backup RB wouldn’t upset me too much. I’d be disappointed by not getting a top prospect but happier than getting a second tier rookie 

[JinxedBill1]

I'd support this if they did this but I'd feel bad for McCarron.  Foles is a SBMVP agaianst the Pats.  Couldn't fault the bills for tryi to recreate that here and keep their picks to build a young team around him.

[Codyny13]

4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Haven't we had enough of retread QBs as the guy to lead the Bills past mediocrity?   Beyond that, the OP ,like many others, ignores The Eagles situation with Wentz and the value they place on Foles as a cheap insurance policy.  

I agree, I do think the eagles take a qb in round 3 though, especially if a Lauletta or White is there. This without a doubt will be Foles last year w the team and if you can get serious value for him, you need to move him, whether that’s before the season or during. They don’t make this move until they have talent backing up Wentz. 

[Chuck Wagon]

Wentz has a torn ACL.  Foles is cheap and won the Super Bowl.  The Eagles don't want to trade Foles.

[JPP]

5 hours ago, greeneblitz said:

God no, hasen't played like a franchise QB 99 percent of his career.

way off the mark.....discount his time with the awful jeff fisher and rams.......foles was good.....

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

If we even trade a 3rd rd pick for Foles I will seriously throw up and eat it. I have pissed off a few of my friends that are Patriots fans by saying "but you guys lost to Nick Foles in a super bowl". It seems to really piss them off and trumps all their BS you lost 4 SB's or win a SB then you can talk saying. If we sign Foles for a high draft pick they will reverse it on me, not a big deal but it would suck giving up a 2nd rd pick for Foles.

[IgotBILLStopay]

44 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Compare these to McCarron and extrapolate, they're nearly identical.  McCarron has about 1/6 the game experience, but giving up a first for a McCarron clone would seem risky at best.  Foles is a Dow Joneser, probably more exciting than Tyrod, but I'm for giving AJ a shot before coughing up a first for Foles.

hey I am not advocating giving up, let alone the 12th, even the 22nd pick. I am saying let us trade down to 26-31 and then offer that. I suspect the Colts, with all of the draft capital,  might offer that much (maybe two of the Jets' seconds if Luck is not yet throwing).

38 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

The flip side being that if 4 guys go in the top 5 and we don’t get one.... are we better off taking a guy like Rudolph? 

 

As a plan b (or maybe c, d or e) - grabbing roquan at 12, trading back from 22 a little to add assets, and going foles late 1, and then having 5 day 2 picks to address WR, OL and a backup RB wouldn’t upset me too much. I’d be disappointed by not getting a top prospect but happier than getting a second tier rookie 

Thank you. You summarized my long post into less than 3 lines and still conveyed everything I wanted to. I have to learn to post like you.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

hey I am not advocating giving up, let alone the 12th, even the 22nd pick. I am saying let us trade down to 26-31 and then offer that. I suspect the Colts, with all of the draft capital,  might offer that much (maybe two of the Jets' seconds if Luck is not yet throwing).

 

You must have missed where Roseman and Pederson said they are not going to trade him. 

[HumbleAndHungry]

We haven't had a thread like this before ....said no one ever 

[Wsam4031]

ugh foles was good for 1 year and 5 games in Philly and has sucked every other year in the league. Forget a retread qb AGAIN and draft one. If we trade a first for him we will need to extend him and thatll cost us a lot 4 year 80 million at least! this guy has not shown throughout his career that he can be consistently good. Id rather run with AJ and get any of the second tier qbs than trade for foles. Foles was a good story last year but if he was in there all season the eagles would not have won the superbowl. Wentz got them a first round bye and home field through out not Foles. Foles happen to be in the right situation at the right time.

[IgotBILLStopay]

2 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

You must have missed where Roseman and Pederson said they are not going to trade him. 

Quote

The Eagles seem to value Foles at a higher level than other teams would across the league, and rightfully so following his dominant postseason and Super Bowl performances. It would likely take a team overpaying for Foles, for a trade to go down, particularly now that the market is flooded with veteran quarterbacks and potentially five players at the position coming off the board in the first round of April's NFL Draft.

However, Roseman did have the look and sound of an executive talking up a player to drive up the trade market ... 

 

http://www.nj.com/eagles/index.ssf/2018/02/will_eagles_trade_nick_foles_howie_roseman_says_takeaways_fr.html

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

 

http://www.nj.com/eagles/index.ssf/2018/02/will_eagles_trade_nick_foles_howie_roseman_says_takeaways_fr.html

 

That's old news from February.  They have since clarified where they stand on him at the league meetings in Orlando. 

[IgotBILLStopay]

38 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

That's old news from February.  They have since clarified where they stand on him at the league meetings in Orlando. 

Umm no.

 

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles/philadelphia-eagles-nick-foles-howie-roseman-high-price-tag-trade-nfl-meetings-20180326.html

 

Quote

“He’s still on the team because he’s an incredibly valuable player for the Philadelphia Eagles,” Roseman said. “When you talk about the position and what’s gone on, you’ve seen the free-agent market and the trade market. We’re in the business of making sure we get the right value for the player. And what our value is for the player is going to stick. …We feel very confident [about] what his value is to our football team and, really, throughout the rest of the league. There was obviously interest in Nick Foles because Nick Foles has been tremendously productive in a Philadelphia Eagles uniform.”

 

This does not say they are not trading him. They want the right value for him. 

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Umm no.

 

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles/philadelphia-eagles-nick-foles-howie-roseman-high-price-tag-trade-nfl-meetings-20180326.html

 

 

This does not say they are not trading him. They want the right value for him. 

 

Umm Yes!

 

[IgotBILLStopay]

2 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Umm Yes!

 

So Roseman and Pederson said two different things at Orlando.

 

Of course, no team is going to announce they are going to trade a valuable trade chip which will only bring its price down.  Thus it is expected that the Eagles brass sayings will be biased towards keeping him. But reading what Roseman said - looks like they are still open to trading him, albeit for the right price.

 

Why dont we both just believe what we believe and leave it at that?

[26CornerBlitz]

4 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

So Roseman and Pederson said two different things at Orlando.

 

Of course, no team is going to announce they are going to trade a valuable trade chip which will only bring its price down.  Thus it is expected that the Eagles brass sayings will be biased towards keeping him. But reading what Roseman said - looks like they are still open to trading him, albeit for the right price.

 

Why dont we both just believe what we believe and leave it at that?

 

They already said what they wanted to move him and no team was willing to pay that. On to the draft!

 

Pederson : Nothing came 'down our way' for Nick Foles

The Philadelphia Eagles wanted a lot if they were going to trade Nick Foles, but coach Doug Pederson admitted Saturday "there wasn't anything coming down our way" for Foles in the trade market.

 

The Philadelphia Eagles wanted a treasure chest if they were going to be tempted to trade away backup quarterback Nick Foles this offseason. Turns out, they didn't get an offer that even piqued their interest, let alone the first-round pick "at the very least" that they were seeking.

 

In speaking with NFL Network's Steve Wyche at the NFL Annual Meeting in Orlando on Saturday, Eagles coach Doug Pederson admitted nothing came his way with regard to a deal for the Super BowlLII MVP.

 

 

"We did not," Pederson said when asked if the team got any interesting trade offers for Foles. "Nothing too crazy. It had to be the right deal for us to do that. But there wasn't anything coming down our way for Nick.

[PauleeeWalnuts]

AJ is younger and no one knows what he brings to the field. I would rather keep the picks if they cant get their guy and stick with AJ, Peterman and maybe a later round QB. They reached for Manuel, they cant do that again. Foles had a decent season and a good playoff run, I wouldn't make him out to be more than he is. This is a guy who was planning on retiring before going back to the Eagles, and who knows, if he gets traded to Buffalo he may pull the plug in a year. We really don't need another Kyle Orton situation? Speculation of course but I just don't feel like he's "the guy". 

[Dr. Who]

Bad idea which fortunately will not happen.

[cba fan]

6 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

now that's a stretch

 

Foles record as an Eagles QB (including playoffs):

 

WL 20-11

Completion percent 62%

TD-INT 55-19

QBR 61

He had one good year with Chip Kelly and one decent playoff run with a great Super Bowl.

 

He is Joe Flacco 2.0.  Hard pass if he cost any more than a 3rd round pick and I would never give him 20 mill a year or Flacco mistake money.

Edited April 13, 2018 by cba fan