McShay Believes "High Probability" Buffalo Ultimately Trades to #2 (For Josh Allen)

[Midwest1981]

Even a lot of "little draft"- like NDT Scouting- has surpassed McShay & Kiper in my mind in terms of quality of scouting/evaluation and draft prognostication.  So I don't take what either say with a tremendous amount of credence or credibility.

 

But I just thought I'd share that McShay said on Mike Greenberg's new show "Get Up" this morning that based on conversations he's had with league executives the expectation is that ultimately Beane gets a deal done with Gettleman to move up to pick #2.  His exact characterization:  "high probability."

 

EDIT:  20 minutes after this post "Get Up" added the McShay/Kiper interview from this morning to its podcast:

 

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/podcast/archive/_/id/22943353

 

On McShay and Kiper's last Podcast around the 20:35 mark Todd says what he also said today:

 

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=22956078

 

It isn't the trading up part that's so troubling, though I personally think the cost is astronomical and prohibitive (I'd rather move up to 6 for Baker than 2 for Allen/Rosen and sacrifice half of the draft capital we've amassed; trading up to #2 will nearly wipe us clean).  It's that Allen is allegedly the target, someone who clearly and notoriously needs major refinement and might be a full two years from capably playing at this level, if it ever occurs.

Edited April 4, 2018 by Midwest1981

[Stank_Nasty]

i'm 200% more on board with only trading up to 5 or 6 and nabbing Mayfield. but if the scenario above ultimately happens i'll......... "trust the process"

[DrDawkinstein]

43 minutes ago, Midwest1981 said:

It isn't the trading up part that's so troubling, though I personally think the cost is astronomical and prohibitive (I'd rather move up to 6 for Baker than 2 for Allen/Rosen and sacrifice half of the draft capital we've amassed; trading up to #2 will nearly wipe us clean).  It's that Allen is allegedly the target, someone who clearly and notoriously needs major refinement and might be a full two years from capably playing at this level, if it ever occurs.

 

I sure hope McShay is right.

 

WRT the bold...

 

You just recreated moving up for Losman and letting Rothlisberger slip through your hands, AGAIN. This is the same loser attitude towards QB that has kept the Bills irrelevant for decades.

 

The sole reason we've amassed said capital is so we CAN move up. That was the whole point this entire time. Gather these assets so we can use them to maneuver. Backing out now would be a huge failure.

 

And trading away "half" our picks doesnt wipe us clean. We have the capital to move up to #2 and still keep a full regular draft.

 

 

Edited April 4, 2018 by DrDawkinstein

[hondo in seattle]

Good information.

 

But do we really need another thread speculating about which QB we're going after?

[Success]

I’m fine with that if it happens.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Spent a lot of time watching Allen the last week. The best comparison I came up with was Cam Newton. I wonder if the Bills see the same thing. If so it's easy to understand their love for Allen with the history of the people making the pick. 

Edited April 4, 2018 by TheTruthHurts

[BillsFan4]

I can't see the Bills trading up to #2 for Allen. 

 

If theyre trading to #2, IMO it has to be for Rosen/Darnold. Maybe Mafield. 

 

Allen just seems like too big of a project to trade up to #2 for. 

 

But ivd bee weong before, so who knows. 

[BillsFanForever19]

I love how most GM's and Talent Evaluators have Josh Allen as the #1 or #2 QB in this Draft. Yet, people on this board think he's EJ Manuel.

 

I'll trust the one's doing this for a living. If they desire Allen - stop being a whiny brat and get behind the positives in his game. They ARE there.

[TheElectricCompany]

2 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Spent a lot of time watching Allen the last week. The best comparison I came up with was Cam Newton. I wonder if the Bills see the same thing. If so it's easy to understand their love for Allen with the history of the people making the pick. 

Old read from 6 months ago, but a good one. 

Talks about the differences between what the general public and NFL teams see in Allen...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2737050-matt-millers-scouting-notebook-josh-allen-the-nfl-and-the-huge-twitter-debate

 

 

[Wayne Cubed]

7 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

The sole reason we've amassed said capital is so we CAN move up. That was the whole point this entire time. Gather these assets so we can use them to maneuver. Backing out now would be a huge failure.

 

Are you sure?!?!?! I mean the Bills could get a load of quality players with all the draft capital, who then eventually walk in FA. 

[billieve420]

Not in love with trading to #2 for Allen. If he falls out of the top# 5 fine but I don't think he is going to be ready to play for a few years. Rather risk those picks on Rosen instead who I expect the Jets to end up drafting. I could see Mayfield dropping out of the # 10 unless another team trades up. I would rather go with Mayfield over Allen as well.

[Midwest1981]

8 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I sure hope McShay is right.

 

WRT the bold...

 

You just recreated moving up for Losman and letting Rothlisberger slip through your hands, AGAIN. This is the same lower attitude towards QB that has kept the Bills irrelevant for decades.

 

The sole reason we've amassed said capital is so we CAN move up. That was the whole point this entire time. Gather these assets so we can use them to maneuver. Backing out now would be a huge failure.

 

And trading away "half" our picks doesnt wipe us clean. We have the capital to move up to #2 and still keep a full regular draft.

Then why didn't we just draft Mahomes when he was there last year, instead of trading down with the Chiefs to let them take him, if the ultimate goal was to acquire that extra pick and then trade that and so much else (two 2nd's, two 3rd's, our 2019 1st seems in play) to move up the next year? 

 

It makes little sense to have demanded that the Chiefs pay appreciably less for their trade-up then we're being forced to pay now.  And for a prospect- if the target is in fact Allen- who if he fails had a glaringly obvious red flag in his (in)accuracy.

 

For the record, Watson was also available at 10 when we traded down.

Edited April 4, 2018 by Midwest1981

[BillsFan17]

If buffalo has a path to the second overall pick they absolutely have to pull the trigger.

 

As far as what QB will be the choice, I can't envision the Bills meeting with Rosen/Mayfield as often as they have to go a different direction.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, TheElectricCompany said:

Old read from 6 months ago, but a good one. 

Talks about the differences between what the general public and NFL teams see in Allen...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2737050-matt-millers-scouting-notebook-josh-allen-the-nfl-and-the-huge-twitter-debate

 

 

The big difference between Newton and Allen is the offenses they played in. Allen is more prepared to play in the NFL than Newton was. Put Allen in Malzahn's offense and he could run for 1,000 yards. 

[Augie]

I’m OK if they go up to #2. If it’s for Allen, maybe not so much. He scares the heck out of me! Is he Big Ben? Or is he EJ? 

[Thurman#1]

17 minutes ago, Midwest1981 said:

Even a lot of "little draft"- like NDT Scouting- has surpassed McShay & Kiper in my mind in terms of quality of scouting/evaluation and draft prognostication.  So I don't take what either say with a tremendous amount of credence or credibility.

 

But I just thought I'd share that McShay said on Mike Greenberg's new show "Get Up" this morning that based on conversations he's had with league executives the expectation is that ultimately Beane gets a deal done with Gettleman to move up to pick #2.  His exact characterization:  "high probability."

 

On McShay and Kiper's last Podcast around the 20:35 mark Todd says what he also said today:

 

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=22956078

 

It isn't the trading up part that's so troubling, though I personally think the cost is astronomical and prohibitive (I'd rather move up to 6 for Baker than 2 for Allen/Rosen and sacrifice half of the draft capital we've amassed; trading up to #2 will nearly wipe us clean).  It's that Allen is allegedly the target, someone who clearly and notoriously needs major refinement and might be a full two years from capably playing at this level, if it ever occurs.

 

 

I personally wouldn't mind getting Mayfield at #6 either, but there's a very decent chance he's gone in the top five.

 

QBs could easily go 1-2-3-4 or 1-2-3-5, especially after teams that want QBs start throwing picks to trade up.

Edited April 4, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Roundybout]

If he's a Bill, then I will cheer for him. I still would not be happy if we gave up a lot for him, though. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, BillsFan17 said:

If buffalo has a path to the second overall pick they absolutely have to pull the trigger.

 

As far as what QB will be the choice, I can't envision the Bills meeting with Rosen/Mayfield as often as they have to go a different direction.

I've said this before but meeting with players often could mean they have a lot of questions about the player. That is most likely the case. 

[N.Y. Orangeman]

Good find, Midwest.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Right move, wrong QB.

[BuffaloBillyG]

If Buffalo moves to 2 for Josh Allen it's a horrible mistake.

 

Allen needs tons of work. We have a WR coach as our QB coach. Doesn't exactly scream being set up for success.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, No Place To Hyde said:

If Buffalo moves to 2 for Josh Allen it's a horrible mistake.

 

Allen needs tons of work. We have a WR coach as our QB coach. Doesn't exactly scream being set up for success.

All rookie QBs need tons of work. 

[Midwest1981]

ESPN has posted the McShay/Kiper interview from this morning to "Get Up's" podcast.  You can click on the link to find it and play it...

 

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/podcast/archive/_/id/22943353

[Wsam4031]

12 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

i'm 200% more on board with only trading up to 5 or 6 and nabbing Mayfield. but if the scenario above ultimately happens i'll......... "trust the process"

Only Problem with that is what if you don't trade to 2 to get allen but trade to 6 to get Mayfield but then hes taken at 5 then you are stuck with no qb you wanted

[Wily Dog]

11 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I love how most GM's and Talent Evaluators have Josh Allen as the #1 or #2 QB in this Draft. Yet, people on this board think he's EJ Manuel.

 

I'll trust the one's doing this for a living. If they desire Allen - stop being a whiny brat and get behind the positives in his game. They ARE there.

Exactly !!!

[Wsam4031]

I have a feeling if we move up to 2 its to get darnold or Rosen

[Putin]

10 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I love how most GM's and Talent Evaluators have Josh Allen as the #1 or #2 QB in this Draft. Yet, people on this board think he's EJ Manuel.

 

I'll trust the one's doing this for a living. If they desire Allen - stop being a whiny brat and get behind the positives in his game. They ARE there.

I agree with you 100% , my choice is Mayfield 

but if we move up for Allen I’ll trust 

( like you said ) people who do this for a living 

[BuffaloBillyG]

Just now, TheTruthHurts said:

All rookie QBs need tons of work. 

Yup. But you're a complete project you need a good situation to go to. IMO if Allen went to the Giants where he can sit and learn from Eli and Shurmer for a few years he would have a better chance. He comes here behind a not too entrenched starter in AJ, a questionable QB coach and a defensive minded HC? Not a good place for him.

 

[Buffalo Bills Detective]

1 minute ago, Wsam4031 said:

I have a feeling if we move up to 2 its to get darnold or Rosen

Those are the only 2 QBs worth moving up to the Top 2 for.  If they can't, I agree with most assessments that they'll try to get to 4 to take Mayfield.

[Stank_Nasty]

1 minute ago, Wsam4031 said:

Only Problem with that is what if you don't trade to 2 to get allen but trade to 6 to get Mayfield but then hes taken at 5 then you are stuck with no qb you wanted

well ya.... i'd rather have Mayfield at 2 or wherever else. so whatever. i'm just not huge on allen. but I don't get paid to pick players so i'm not gonna pretend like I ultimately know one way or the other if its gonna pan out.

[Midwest1981]

10 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I personally wouldn't mind getting Mayfield at #6 either, but there's a very decent chance he's gone in the top five.

 

QBs could easily go 1-2-3-4 or 1-2-3-5, especially after teams that want QBs start throwing picks to trade up.

You're right- that isn't a given (that we could trade up to 6 for Baker) because Denver might want to pounce at 5, if he's even still on the board (slight chance you goes before then).  Perhaps if Cleveland isn't game to move off of pick #4 then it just wasn't meant to be.  Nevertheless, if that happens I still don't think that gives us license to wipe clean most/all of our 1st-3rd-round 2018 draft picks, plus the seemingly increasing likelihood of including our 2019 1st, for a player in Allen who would be bucking recent NFL Draft history if he succeeded.

 

And this environment isn't ripe for success, necessarily, with a WR unit lacking depth and speed, a TE with a chronic knee condition, a generally substandard offensive line, a head coach hailing from the defensive side of the ball, etc.

 

The above aren't matters we can reasonably address in the draft with a trade-up and Buffalo has never been particularly attractive for FA's.

Edited April 4, 2018 by Midwest1981

[BillsFan4]

17 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I love how most GM's and Talent Evaluators have Josh Allen as the #1 or #2 QB in this Draft. Yet, people on this board think he's EJ Manuel.

 

I'll trust the one's doing this for a living. If they desire Allen - stop being a whiny brat and get behind the positives in his game. They ARE there.

We really have no idea where most GMs have Allen ranked.

 

The media talking heads are just guessing, or maybe being fed fake information. They are wrong in their QB ranking almost every single year.

Allen very well could be ranked #1 or #2 by most GMs, but we simply dont know right now. There is sooooo much misinformation out there at this time of year. 

 

And some of the talent evaluators I respect the most (like Daniel Jeremiah for example) have Allen ranked as the #4 QB in this draft. 

 

 

If we draft Allen, I will be on board. There are definitely things to like about his game, and as I've said numerous times on here - his ceiling is sky high. If you hit on him you're set for a decade. But personally, I just see him as a bigger gamble than a guy like Darnold or Rosen.

[Wsam4031]

2 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

well ya.... i'd rather have Mayfield at 2 or wherever else. so whatever. i'm just not huge on allen. but I don't get paid to pick players so i'm not gonna pretend like I ultimately know one way or the other if its gonna pan out.

Yea I don't either. I dotn really care which one they get as long as they get the one they love.

[Putin]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Those are the only 2 QBs worth moving up to the Top 2 for.  If they can't, I agree with most assessments that they'll try to get to 4 to take Mayfield.

For all we know Jets may want Mayfield, and maybe that’s who we want as well 

[BillsFan17]

7 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:

I've said this before but meeting with players often could mean they have a lot of questions about the player. That is most likely the case. 

If you are going to invest the draft picks needed to get into a position to take one of these guys, then make them the face of your franchise...

 

This isn't a, there is some questionable character concerns via the media about you, let's hangout and aire out both sides of the argument.

 

You meet with a player four times like they are doing with Mayfield and three or four times with Rosen, you are making sure character wise these guys are best suited for your franchise.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Yup. But you're a complete project you need a good situation to go to. IMO if Allen went to the Giants where he can sit and learn from Eli and Shurmer for a few years he would have a better chance. He comes here behind a not too entrenched starter in AJ, a questionable QB coach and a defensive minded HC? Not a good place for him.

 

Our QB coach is well respected. When we talk about being raw we think of mechanics mostly, but never mentally picking up an offense. 

 

I don't know Allen's ability to pick up an offense. I watch him play and I don't see the smartest QB decisions, but we don't know what he is being asked to do. He may be asked to do more than QBs like Mayfield and Jackson. We don't know.

[billspro]

I don't think the Bills have showed much interest in Allen if you look at the predraft visits. 

[BillsFan17]

20 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I love how most GM's and Talent Evaluators have Josh Allen as the #1 or #2 QB in this Draft. Yet, people on this board think he's EJ Manuel.

 

I'll trust the one's doing this for a living. If they desire Allen - stop being a whiny brat and get behind the positives in his game. They ARE there.

Yeah, you have heard GMs come out and say this? Or are you basing this on what the media is pumping about the kid?

 

Cause your so called talent evaluators tend to fix their rankings closer and closer to the draft when the real evaluators shape up their teams boards.

[KDIGGZ]

i'd rather they go to 5-7 and get Mayfield if that's the case.  if they get up to 2 and don't take Rosen then they are dumb.  way too much to give up for a project QB like Allen

[DrDawkinstein]

13 minutes ago, Midwest1981 said:

Then why didn't we just draft Mahomes when he was there last year, instead of trading down with the Chiefs to let them take him, if the ultimate goal was to acquire that extra pick and then trade that and so much else (two 2nd's, two 3rd's, our 2019 1st seems in play) to move up the next year? 

 

It makes little sense to have demanded that the Chiefs pay appreciably less for their trade-up then we're being forced to pay now.  And for a prospect- if the target is in fact Allen- who if he fails had a glaringly obvious red flag in his (in)accuracy.

 

For the record, Watson was also available at 10 when we traded down.

 

This has been covered ad nauseum here over the last couple of months...

 

It didnt matter what QB was available. McD was not about to tie his career to a QB based on Whaley and Whaley's scouting staff's opinions. McD and the rest of the FO knew Whaley was on his way out. They were not going to saddle a new HC and an incoming GM with a QB someone else wanted. And given the previous staff's track record at QB, I cant blame them. QB was never on the table last year.

 

HOWEVER, everyone could plainly see that the 2018 QB class had a number of good prospects. So kick that can down the road for 1 more year, and draft contributors at positions Whaley's office was good at scouting (DB, LB, etc).

 

That was always the obvious plan since the moment they traded down last year.