Albert Breer's new mock

[Chuck Wagon]

11 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

 

Oh Chucky.

 

He also likes his job, and realizes his career is staked on this draft.   GM's don't stay employed unless they win, and they don't win without a stud qb.

 

I think Allen could thrive in a place where he had an AJ Green, Julio, etc.   Big targets with big catch radius.  Obviously nobody knows which (if any) of these qb's are going to pan out, but Allen reminds me of Ryan Leaf, which isn't fair to the kid, but I can't help it.

 

 

 

 

I completely agree we don't have a great situation here to allow a young QB to succeed.  A first year OC, a depleted WR corps, replacing a longtime staple at center, it's not an ideal situation.  But Wentz and Goff weren't drafted into an ideal situation and the team aggressively put pieces around them in year 2.  Trubisky is in a similar situation.  The cap space next year allows us to get our QB this year and aggressively put pieces around him next offseason.  Guys are going to be much more likely to sign here if an exciting young QB is in place.  However, my faith in Beane & co actually having the guts to put it out there to make the move is waning.  Patience is their game, there's something to be said for that, it got McCarron at a much cheaper price than calling him on day 1 would have, I just don't see that winning out when it comes to making a move up.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

It's unbelievable how people vouch for these QBs every year. 

 

It's like the scene in Money Ball where the old scouts are gushing about how a prospects swing looks, how the bat sounds when he makes contact, etc, and Brad Pitt responds by asking, if he's a good hitter, then why isn't he a good hitter?

That's how I view Allen. I don't care that he looks like a franchise QB or that he can throw a football 80 yards (a completely irrelevant trait in the NFL considering no QB is ever required to throw the ball 80 yards). I care about how well he "passes" the football, and he falls way short in that category due to his very poor accuracy. 

 

We have lived that life. what many miss is this doesn’t mean very accurate college QB succeed, only that inaccurate ones won’t.

 

sure there may be one exception, but it’s sort of like in the working world GPA,  high school degrees or college degrees, etc.. Certain jobs have basic floor requirements because 99.9% of people who don’t  meet the minimums will fail. 

 

And its not true for every type of role, but it’s definitely true for some. And the QB is the COO of your offense. 

[Tatonka68]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Terrible mock. He doesn't have Mason Rudolph in the first! He knows nothing.  

 

Anyway, I'm am starting to feel like the Giants could want Barkley. If he is there at two they won't trade out. If the Browns take him at one, they will trade out. Breer mentions that the Giants love Barkley and Nelson. 

 

This is all contingent on the Giants not wanting a quarterback, but I think we we could have standing offers for the 2 and 4 picks. If the Browns go QB and the Giants get Barkley, the Browns probably trade us 4. If the Browns take Barkley, the Giants maybe trade out with us, and the Browns get a quarterback at 4. I think it is all contingent on if Barkley is available. Either way we would be guaranteed 1 of Allen, Darnold, Rosen. 

Who says Rudolph is not a first round pick, "the draft experts". Give me a break. LOL 

[MrEpsYtown]

1 minute ago, Tatonka68 said:

Who says Rudolph is not a first round pick, "the draft experts". Give me a break. LOL 

We shall see what happens. I have to trust those in the know and my own eyes over some guys on a message board, you know what I'm saying?

[jrober38]

5 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

Who says Rudolph is not a first round pick, "the draft experts". Give me a break. LOL 

 

He's not a first round pick.

 

He doesn't have any elite traits and is actually pretty average across the board. Looks like a long term backup. 

[BuffaloRebound]

The 60% completion percentage thing is beyond stupid.  The difference between Allen's completion percentage and 60% is one drop per game.  I counted at least 4 in the Iowa game that were clear drops.  One of his Receivers had a TD bounce off his chest.  When you have an elite arm and play with WR's who are low D-1 caliber, you're gonna have drops.  

[foreboding]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

I seriously wonder if McDermott would take Rosen because of his religious beliefs.

Dumbest thing I read so far today.

[MAJBobby]

8 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

Who says Rudolph is not a first round pick, "the draft experts". Give me a break. LOL 

 

Mid 2nd round Grade from me

1 minute ago, BuffaloRebound said:

The 60% completion percentage thing is beyond stupid.  The difference between Allen's completion percentage and 60% is one drop per game.  I counted at least 4 in the Iowa game that were clear drops.  One of his Receivers had a TD bounce off his chest.  When you have an elite arm and play with WR's who are low D-1 caliber, you're gonna have drops.  

 

You say drop i say bad decision which I count 5-9 per game. 

 

Fact is fact. Sub 60% passers do not succeed in Modern NFL

 

and Josh Allen is a 56% career passer as a two year Starter

Edited March 21, 2018 by MAJBobby

[Dr. Who]

Allen is high ceiling, low floor.  I wouldn't trade up to 2 for him, but if Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, and Jackson were all gone by 12 (highly doubtful,) I admit I would pull the trigger, though I think the odds are against Allen working out.  I'd rather take a shot at the high ceiling than take Rudolph there, that's for sure.

[foreboding]

35 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

 

Elway had a career completion percentage of 56.9 and was NEVER considered "pinpoint" accurate, ever...Neither was Favre.  Both are all-time greats.  Russell Wilson is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and I don't think anyone would say accuracy is he best trait.  But sure, lets revise history to support your narrative.

 

Do you know who IS "accurate"?  Nathan Peterman

Wilson is VERY accurate and so was Favre. Elway was a winner and played in an era when you could get the ball downfield more consistently. Not to mention you just listed three QB's with legendary will to win attitudes. Hard to measure that for a draft.

[jrober38]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

The 60% completion percentage thing is beyond stupid.  The difference between Allen's completion percentage and 60% is one drop per game.  I counted at least 4 in the Iowa game that were clear drops.  One of his Receivers had a TD bounce off his chest.  When you have an elite arm and play with WR's who are low D-1 caliber, you're gonna have drops.  

 

I can't find the link, but I've seen each QBs adjusted completion percentage and Allen is still at the bottom of the barrel. 

 

Mayfield and Jackson had a much higher percentage of drops.

[Starr Almighty]

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/03/21/draft-top-five-picks-mmqb-mailbag-peter-king

 

Peter King also has the Bills moving up to 2 and taking Allen.?‍♂️?‍♂️?‍♂️

[Mikey152]

3 minutes ago, foreboding said:

Wilson is VERY accurate and so was Favre. Elway was a winner and played in an era when you could get the ball downfield more consistently. Not to mention you just listed three QB's with legendary will to win attitudes. Hard to measure that for a draft.

 

So, because you say it I'm just supposed to take it at face value?

 

Did you see Wilson at this year's skill competition?  Accurate my ass.

[DFT]

3 minutes ago, Starr Almighty said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/03/21/draft-top-five-picks-mmqb-mailbag-peter-king

 

Peter King also has the Bills moving up to 2 and taking Allen.?‍♂️?‍♂️?‍♂️

Yep, Allen is the name being floated.  I don’t buy it though.  I think it’s Rosen or Jackson.  Rosen if they can trade and Jackson if they can’t.   I’m probably wrong though.

[Chicken Boo]

1 hour ago, Chuck Wagon said:

Beane doesn't have the guts to go to 2, he's drunk on his draft capital.

 

Reverse psychology?  

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, DFT said:

Yep, Allen is the name being floated.  I don’t buy it though.  I think it’s Rosen or Jackson.  Rosen if they can trade and Jackson if they can’t.   I’m probably wrong though.

 

To me Allen screams a name the FO purposely floated and is keeping out there for smoke

[foreboding]

4 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

 

So, because you say it I'm just supposed to take it at face value?

 

Did you see Wilson at this year's skill competition?  Accurate my ass.

 

Wilson

2016 - 64.7% Rating 95.4

2017 - 61.3% Rating: 92.6

 

Favre 62% Career

 

Brady, is he accurate you think? 63.9% career

 

Skill competition, lol. Yep that is how we should judge superbowl winning QB's

Edited March 21, 2018 by foreboding

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, DFT said:

Yep, Allen is the name being floated.  I don’t buy it though.  I think it’s Rosen or Jackson.  Rosen if they can trade and Jackson if they can’t.   I’m probably wrong though.

This is my surmise as well.

[Chicken Boo]

14 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Mid 2nd round Grade from me

 

You say drop i say bad decision which I count 5-9 per game. 

 

Fact is fact. Sub 60% passers do not succeed in Modern NFL

 

and Josh Allen is a 56% career passer as a two year Starter

 

Matt Ryan was a sub 60% guy and threw 29 picks in his last 2 seasons at BC.

[thebandit27]

Not for nothing, but whether or not the 60% rule applies really depends upon your definition of "success".  For example:

 

Josh McCown was a career 51% passer in college, and all he's done is put together a 16-year career that includes 73 starts, and he's coming off of his best season as a pro--one in which he completed over 67% of his passes for a career-high 7.4 YPA.

 

Obviously we have the Stafford example, but how many folks knew that Russell Wilson completed only 60.7% of his passes in college, and that prior to his senior season at Wisconsin, he was a career 57% passer?

 

Carson Palmer was a career 59% passer at USC

 

Matt Ryan was a career 59.9% passer at Boston College--including 59.3% as a senior

 

So perhaps it's worth re-thinking the idea that (a) below 60% accuracy is some kind of automatic failure threshold, and (b) accuracy cannot be improved from college to the pros.

[Mikey152]

2 minutes ago, foreboding said:

 

Wilson

2016 - 64.7% Rating 95.4

2017 - 61.3% Rating: 92.6

 

Favre 62% Career

 

Brady, is he accurate you think? 63.9% career

 

Skill competition, lol. Yep that is how we should judge superbowl winning QB's

 

No, lets base it on completion percentage...probably the most useless stat a QB can generate.  And better yet, lets arbitrarily set a number like 60% as the cutoff then use confirmation bias to establish it as the end-all-be-all of success.  Oh, and lets correlate it to accuracy even though it is almost totally independent.

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Matt Ryan was a sub 60% guy and threw 29 picks in his last 2 seasons at BC.

 

Yep 59.9%. However. 

 

Take out his Frosh Year and he is 60.5. 

 

He had two seasons over 60. Allen has Zero

 

and much like Stafford there is exception every now and then but not the norm. 

 

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Matt Ryan was a sub 60% guy and threw 29 picks in his last 2 seasons at BC.

 

Again, no one ever questioned Matt Ryan's accuracy.

 

For the 100th time; accuracy and completion percentage aren't the same thing. 

 

Reality is that Ryan carried a very mediocre BC team to an 11-3 record his Senior year with a 10th end of year AP Ranking. They punched way above their weight while he was there despite featuring zero NFL talent and competing in the ACC. 

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

Allen is a reach at 2 unless they are seeing something I didn't in him. If they are going the he is the next coming of Carson Wentz route. I watched Carson dominate in the lower division didn't see the same player in Allen I think he is too raw. With the right tutor he probably could be great in a few years, how long can we ride McCarron though.

[Chuck Wagon]

16 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Reverse psychology?  

 

 

If they are reading this, maybe it's time to stop telling them they walk on water.

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Not for nothing, but whether or not the 60% rule applies really depends upon your definition of "success".  For example:

 

Josh McCown was a career 51% passer in college, and all he's done is put together a 16-year career that includes 73 starts, and he's coming off of his best season as a pro--one in which he completed over 67% of his passes for a career-high 7.4 YPA.

 

Obviously we have the Stafford example, but how many folks knew that Russell Wilson completed only 60.7% of his passes in college, and that prior to his senior season at Wisconsin, he was a career 57% passer?

 

Carson Palmer was a career 59% passer at USC

 

Matt Ryan was a career 59.9% passer at Boston College--including 59.3% as a senior

 

So perhaps it's worth re-thinking the idea that (a) below 60% accuracy is some kind of automatic failure threshold, and (b) accuracy cannot be improved from college to the pros.

Would you rethink it to the point of trading up to #2 for Allen?  (I am not being snarky; genuinely asking.)

[MAJBobby]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Not for nothing, but whether or not the 60% rule applies really depends upon your definition of "success".  For example:

 

Josh McCown was a career 51% passer in college, and all he's done is put together a 16-year career that includes 73 starts, and he's coming off of his best season as a pro--one in which he completed over 67% of his passes for a career-high 7.4 YPA.

 

Obviously we have the Stafford example, but how many folks knew that Russell Wilson completed only 60.7% of his passes in college, and that prior to his senior season at Wisconsin, he was a career 57% passer?

 

Carson Palmer was a career 59% passer at USC

 

Matt Ryan was a career 59.9% passer at Boston College--including 59.3% as a senior

 

So perhaps it's worth re-thinking the idea that (a) below 60% accuracy is some kind of automatic failure threshold, and (b) accuracy cannot be improved from college to the pros.

 

So Two. Out of how many QBs that have played in Modern NFL?

 

unless you want a 16 year spot starter BU at No 2 overall

Edited March 21, 2018 by MAJBobby

[Herb62]

If you like Mason R you can have him at 21 not 12 and now a WR is a most Zay is in LA central jail

[smuvtalker]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Plenty of mocks to go around, but Breer is especially plugged in around the league - and he specifically says that he showed the mock to league execs and "didn't get much pushback."  The Josh Allen rumors aren't going away and are either part of an elaborate smokescreen, or...

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/03/21/mock-draft-sam-darnold-browns-bills-trade-giants-josh-allen-broncos-trade-browns-baker-mayfield

 

2. Buffalo (projected trade with N.Y. Giants): Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
The Bills have done a nice job building capital for a bold swing. This is one. Allen’s potential is limitless, and his big frame and arm are made for Buffalo, though he has a ways to go.

 

Anyone got a link.......on how to commit seppuku?  

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, NewEraBills said:

If I had to "accept" Allen at 12 then I'd be OK so long as we got Vander Esch or Raashan Evans at MLB.  But if we give away the capital that it is being reported we will have to give up to move to #2 and select Allen this will be the most disappointing offseason in I don't know when.  We would have gone from being on a high of breaking the 17 year curse to THIS.  Ughhhhh

 

I’d probably throw up in my mouth if we gave up all that for #2.  Seriously doubt the Jets take him over Rosen or Darnold, so why trade ahead of them get him?  I don’t get it Albert.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

Would you rethink it to the point of trading up to #2 for Allen?  (I am not being snarky; genuinely asking.)

 

I'm a bit of an anomaly among posters here, as I like any of Darnold/Rosen/Allen/Mayfield enough to trade up for them.

 

Just now, MAJBobby said:

 

So Two. Out of how many QBs that have played in Modern NFL?

 

Actually MAJ, that's 3 definite successes, and 4 if you count McCown...and that's not really the point.  You stated definitively that it doesn't happen; I'm stating definitively that it does.  One of us is correct, and the other needs to re-think things IMO.  I'll leave it to you to decide which applies to yourself.

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

 

I’d probably throw up in my mouth if we gave up all that for #2.  Seriously doubt the Jets take him over Rosen or Darnold, so why trade ahead of them get him?  I don’t get it Albert.

 

FWIW, I am convinced that the #1 pick is going to come down to either Darnold or Allen...it would not surprise me at all if the other one goes #3 to NYJ

[Mrbojanglezs]

Jim Kelly 55.6% completion in college

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

Would you rethink it to the point of trading up to #2 for Allen?  (I am not being snarky; genuinely asking.)

If you were drafting in the #2 spot and had the choice between Rosen and Allen I would take Rosen. If you were drafting in the top ten and the choice was between Allen or Mayfield I believe that Beane would select Allen because he fits Beane's physical profile better. At the three spot if Rosen and Darnold were both off the board I believe that the Jets would take Allen over Mayfield. The decision that GMs are going to make is based on how they project a qb down the line. That's why a number of organizations would prefer a qb such as Allen.  I would prefer Mayfield over Allen but wouldn't be overly upset if Allen was selected by us. 

[foreboding]

12 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

 

No, lets base it on completion percentage...probably the most useless stat a QB can generate.  And better yet, lets arbitrarily set a number like 60% as the cutoff then use confirmation bias to establish it as the end-all-be-all of success.  Oh, and lets correlate it to accuracy even though it is almost totally independent.

 

hahahaha. This whole discussion is about completion percentage... It is the basis for his accuracy concerns. Now you clearly do not ascribe to the possibility that there is a correlation between the number of passes you complete out of 100 attempts. So I guess this is all about eyeballs and opinion. 

Edited March 21, 2018 by foreboding

[CommonCents]

12 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Not for nothing, but whether or not the 60% rule applies really depends upon your definition of "success".  For example:

 

Josh McCown was a career 51% passer in college, and all he's done is put together a 16-year career that includes 73 starts, and he's coming off of his best season as a pro--one in which he completed over 67% of his passes for a career-high 7.4 YPA.

 

Obviously we have the Stafford example, but how many folks knew that Russell Wilson completed only 60.7% of his passes in college, and that prior to his senior season at Wisconsin, he was a career 57% passer?

 

Carson Palmer was a career 59% passer at USC

 

Matt Ryan was a career 59.9% passer at Boston College--including 59.3% as a senior

 

So perhaps it's worth re-thinking the idea that (a) below 60% accuracy is some kind of automatic failure threshold, and (b) accuracy cannot be improved from college to the pros.

Interesting examples, if I knew the guy I was getting at two was a Ryan or Palmer clone I might be reluctant to part with the picks.

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I'm a bit of an anomaly among posters here, as I like any of Darnold/Rosen/Allen/Mayfield enough to trade up for them.

 

 

Actually MAJ, that's 3 definite successes, and 4 if you count McCown...and that's not really the point.  You stated definitively that it doesn't happen; I'm stating definitively that it does.  One of us is correct, and the other needs to re-think things IMO.  I'll leave it to you to decide which applies to yourself.

 

FWIW, I am convinced that the #1 pick is going to come down to either Darnold or Allen...it would not surprise me at all if the other one goes #3 to NYJ

Interesting.  You think every team is that scared of Rosen due to potential attitude problems/injuries?  I’d be shocked if they passed on Rosen for Allen (and extremely excited].  I could see it over Baker.  Just stand Allen and Mayfield side by side and it’s hard to blame them.  Can’t wait to see how this all transpires 

[foreboding]

1 minute ago, Commonsense said:

Interesting examples, if I knew the guy I was getting at two was a Ryan or Palmer clone I might be reluctant to part with the picks.

Agreed. The guy clearly has a high ceiling, there is no way to know if he will get more accurate as a pro, where despite others protestations here, efficiency does matter.

[Like A Mofo]

Josh Allen has the size, mobility and arm strength to be a QB in Buffalo. I am not familiar with how he is mentally or as a leader, that is the key. Sure, Allen would be a work in progress, but remember this is a PROCESS. It takes time.

 

On the surface, I would like to see Josh Allen with Buffalo. I think the accuracy can improve over time.

 

No matter who Beane selects, it is a roll of the dice, at pick #1, #2, #4, or even #12.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

1 hour ago, Tatonka68 said:

12. Mason Rudolph QB Oklahoma St 

22.  Harrison Phillips DT Stanford

53. James Washington WR Oklahoma St

56. Josey Jewell ILB Iowa

65. Bradley Boseman C Alabama

96. Darius Leonard OLB South Carolina St

121. Cedrick Wilson WR Boise State

166.  Bo Scarbrough RB Alabama

187. Marquis Hayes Edge Ole Miss

Nothing wrong with his head or arm it's his heart. He is a tennis player wearings a football helmet.

 

 

I hope they pick up Scarbrough, he's a beast.

[jrober38]

1 hour ago, foreboding said:

Agreed. The guy clearly has a high ceiling, there is no way to know if he will get more accurate as a pro, where despite others protestations here, efficiency does matter.

 

I don't think he does have a high ceiling.

 

Elite QBs have elite accuracy. Brady, Montana, Marino, Kelly, Brees, Manning, etc, etc, etc - they're all elite passers because they had elite accuracy. 

 

Accuracy is Allen's worst trait. If he's missing the thing all the elite guys had, how can his ceiling be as high? 

Edited March 21, 2018 by jrober38