It's a Good Year For QB's Because There Are a Lot, Not Because They Are Great

[BadLandsMeanie]

Hi everyone I just stole this from another fansite because it helped me understand this draft a bit better than I did.

 

Look at the NFL.com draft grades for this year versus other years. And I know the rankings can be inaccurate but they are some sort of gage.

 

My purpose in posting this is to share what I learned. I learned that they have been calling this a great draft for QBs because there are a bunch of 6's.

So lots to pick from is great. But at least from this chart the only one you would expect a team to trade their whole draft for is Sam Darnold.

And Goff and Wentz you can see, again at least from this chart, seemed to be more of a sure thing going in than most of the guys in the draft class.

 

So when they say next years looks like a lousy year for QB's . I wonder if they mean it is a lousy year like when it had EJ and Geno Smith, neither one of whom is fit to be a starter.

 

Or is it a lousy year because there are not 5 grade 6's? What say you?

 

 

Draft Year	Name	GRADE	Status	POS	HT	WT	School	Where drafted	Team
2018	DARNOLD, SAM*	7.0	--	QB	6'3"	220	USC
2015	Winston, Jameis	6.7	Starter	QB	6'4"	231	Florida St.	Pick 1, Round 1 (1)	Buccaneers
2016	Goff, Jared	6.5	Starter	QB	6'4"	215	California	Pick 1, Round 1 (1)	Rams
2016	Wentz, Carson	6.5	Starter	QB	6'5"	237	North Dakota St.	Pick 2, Round 1 (2)	Eagles
2017	Trubisky, Mitchell	6.3	Starter	QB	6'2"	222	North Carolina	Pick 2, Round 1 (2)	Bears
2015	Mariota, Marcus	6.2	Starter	QB	6'4"	222	Oregon	Pick 2, Round 1 (2)	Titans
2014	Bortles, Blake	6.2	Starter	QB	6'5"	232	Central Florida	Pick 3, Round 1 (3)	Jaguars
2014	Manziel, Johnny	6.1	OUT	QB	6'0"	207	Texas A&M	Pick 22, Round 1 (22)	Browns
2016	Lynch, Paxton	6.1	Backup	QB	6'7"	244	Memphis	Pick 26, Round 1 (26)	Broncos
2014	Bridgewater, Teddy	6.1	Starter	QB	6'2"	214	Louisville	Pick 32, Round 1 (32)	Vikings
2014	Carr, Derek	6.1	Starter	QB	6'2"	214	Fresno St.	Pick 4, Round 2 (36)	Raiders
2018	ROSEN, JOSH*	6.1	--	QB	6'4"	226	UCLA
2018	MAYFIELD, BAKER	6.0	--	QB	6'1"	215	Oklahoma
2018	ALLEN, JOSH	6.0	--	QB	6'5"	233	Wyoming
2017	Watson, Deshaun	5.9	Starter	QB	6'2"	221	Clemson	Pick 12, Round 1 (12)	Texans
2018	JACKSON, LAMAR*	5.9	--	QB	6'3"	200	Louisville
2017	Mahomes, Patrick	5.8	Starter	QB	6'2"	225	Texas Tech	Pick 10, Round 1 (10)	Chiefs
2016	Cook, Connor	5.8	Backup	QB	6'4"	217	Michigan St.	Pick 2, Round 4 (100)	Raiders
2014	Garoppolo, Jimmy	5.8	Starter	QB	6'2"	226	Eastern Illinois	Pick 30, Round 2 (62)	Patriots
2017	Kizer, DeShone	5.7	Backup	QB	6'4"	233	Notre Dame	Pick 20, Round 2 (52)	Browns
2014	McCarron, AJ	5.7	Backup	QB	6'3"	220	Alabama	Pick 24, Round 5 (164)	Bengals
2017	Peterman, Nathan	5.7	Backup	QB	6'2"	226	Pittsburgh	Pick 28, Round 5 (171)	Bills
2018	RUDOLPH, MASON	5.6	--	QB	6'5"	235	Oklahoma St.
2016	Hackenberg, Christian	5.5	Backup	QB	6'4"	223	Penn St.	Pick 20, Round 2 (51)	Jets
2016	Brissett, Jacoby	5.5	Backup	QB	6'4"	231	N.C. State	Pick 29, Round 3 (91)	Patriots
2016	Prescott, Dak	5.4	Starter	QB	6'2"	226	Mississippi St.	Pick 37, Round 4 (135)	Cowboys
2015	Petty, Bryce	5.4	Backup	QB	6'3"	230	Baylor	Pick 4, Round 4 (103)	Jets
2015	Grayson, Garrett	5.3	Backup	QB	6'2"	213	Colorado St.	Pick 11, Round 3 (75)	Saints
2015	Hundley, Brett	5.3	Backup	QB	6'3"	226	UCLA	Pick 11, Round 5 (147)	Packer

 

 

 

[Fetou]

I'm inclined to agree that there isnt a consensus pick that you are hearing is better than Goff/Wentz. Meanwhile the cost of moving up is far above what it was for Wentz due to the Jets trade. It's a terrible year to be looking to move into the top 5.

[zonabb]

Been on the supply and demand argument forever about QBs. The very limited supply of quality QBs dictates that demand is always high. That demand then gets operationalized by over-drafting low quality QBs. If anyone thinks there are 5 legit starting, playoffs caliber QBs in this draft, you're insane. What amazes me, is the irrational thinking that goes into drafting questionable QBs in round 1 all the time by GMs. It's demanding owners, job security (damned if you, damned if you don't), and fan bases like this one that convince GMs they have to draft one. 

 

I'll say there's one guy, Darnold, every team is probably comfortable with because he has a good chance to succeed. 

 

It's the Peter Principle.... people get promoted, and this case drafted, based on how well they perform in their current job (college QB), which in no way predicts how well they'll do in the new one. Every promotion is a filter and everyone, all of us, reach our level of incompetence. In this draft, many of these QBs will once again prove the Peter Principle.

[SoTier]

As far as I can tell, it's quantity over quality when it comes to the draft.  That's for any position.  If there's only 1 or 2 QBs or WRs or DTs who are graded as first rounders, then all the draft mavens label it a "lousy" draft for that position even if those 1 or 2 guys are the best prospects at their positions in the last decade.  If there's 4 or 5 QBs given first round grades, it's a "great" draft for QBs even if none of them are all that great individually. 

 

[Jay_Fixit]

Oh I know.

 

People here are overvaluing the QB’s this year because the Bills need one.

 

[Buddo]

The problem with that idea, is in knowing who is doing the evaluations. The concept being both correct and interesting, yet without knowing where anyone is getting the grades from, it's pretty difficult to make the sort of conclusions you are implying. While I realize you are saying that the grades are coming from NFL.com, my interest is as much in who is doing /giving those grades, as anything else.

Just as an example, there's a lot of places where Rosen would be the top QB, and not Darnold, yet the grade given for Darnold, is way ahead of Rosen.

Iirc, Mayock has said that although he had 1st round grades on a bunch of the guys this year, he had none of them rated as highly as he rated Wentz, although that was early in his evaluation process.

 

To a point, I think the assumption that it is a good year for QBs is correct, as I think there are more guys being given a genuine 1st round grade, as opposed to being bumped up to 1st round 'status' through need. I would also say that apparently, and without looking at it in any depth, that the general feeling on the QB class in 2019, is that it is EJ and Geno bad, sadly.

 

So if you want to grab a QB, you have way better chances of them being a success this year, than next.

[LeGOATski]

That chart clearly shows this is a great year for QBs....regardless if it's right or wrong.

[SoTier]

4 minutes ago, zonabb said:

Been on the supply and demand argument forever about QBs. The very limited supply of quality QBs dictates that demand is always high. That demand then gets operationalized by over-drafting low quality QBs. If anyone thinks there are 5 legit starting, playoffs caliber QBs in this draft, you're insane. What amazes me, is the irrational thinking that goes into drafting questionable QBs in round 1 all the time by GMs. It's demanding owners, job security (damned if you, damned if you don't), and fan bases like this one that convince GMs they have to draft one. 

 

I'll say there's one guy, Darnold, every team is probably comfortable with because he has a good chance to succeed. 

 

It's the Peter Principle.... people get promoted, and this case drafted, based on how well they perform in their current job (college QB), which in no way predicts how well they'll do in the new one. Every promotion is a filter and everyone, all of us, reach our level of incompetence. In this draft, many of these QBs will once again prove the Peter Principle.

 

Exactly this.  I don't like any of the QBs in this draft enough to want the Bills to move up from 12 for him for what it will now cost to do it.

[Hebert19]

Agree totally.  Save all 6 picks on first 3 and take best an available at 12 or 22.  It's really a no brainer to me. 

[B Fan in LA]

 

Count me in with the crowd that does not want to trade up any further.

I'd be happy with Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph

 

[PIZ]

3 minutes ago, B Fan in LA said:

 

Count me in with the crowd that does not want to trade up any further.

I'd be happy with Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph

 

 

I like this idea as well.  Love to keep all those picks.

[apuszczalowski]

Put it this way, would everyone be so comfortable and willing to give up both 1sts, 2nds, and 3rds in order to get Winston, Marriota, Trubisky, or Bortles?

Theres as good of a chance that the top guys this year end up being one of those guys and not the next Manning, Manning, Rothlesburger, or Brees.....

Giving away all those picks could put the Bills in the same position as the chargers having Rivers and nothing else, leading to some one and done playoff appearances and nothing more, even though having a Franchise QB means long term franchise success......

[PromoTheRobot]

You know what? Between February and April there is a bumper crop of franchise QBs every year.

[BillsFan4]

This is how I feel as well.

 

The strength of this QB draft class is in its depth. There are at least 4-5, and maybe up to 6, potential 1st round QBs this year. 

 

I dont know know if I see the point in trading the farm for the 4th QB off the board, or even the 3rd... is the 3rd or 4th QB off the board this year 3 or 4 starting caliber players better than the 4th or 5th QB off the board (which is what it might cost to trade up - 3 or 4 prime picks)? 

 

 

It really only makes sense to me if you are trading to pick #2 and guaranteeing yourself one of the top 2 QBs. Even then it's a crap shoot. 

 

I guess it all all depends on how the Bills have these QBs rated. If there is a huge gap between their #1 or #2 QB and their #3/4 QB, then yeah maybe it makes sense to sell the farm for #2 overall. If the gap between their #2 and #3/4/5 QB is relatively small, it makes more sense to take their #4 QB and surround him with 3,4,5 potentially very good draft prospects. 

[GunnerBill]

So I have been grading college players since 2014. My top 10 QB grades in order since then are as below:

 

1. Marcus Mariota

2. Jameis Winston

3. Josh Rosen

4. Deshuan Watson

5. Carson Wentz

6. Jared Goff

7. Sam Darnold

8. Baker Mayfield

9. Blake Bortles

10. Mitch Trubisky

 

3 of my top 10 are in this draft. 

[Real McClappy]

TY OP,

Still trying to figure out why Darnold is rated so high. Don't get me wrong I like him and all. I just can't get why he grades out better than Baker or Rosen.

Edited March 18, 2018 by Real McCoy

[BadLandsMeanie]

31 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

TY OP,

Still trying to figure out why Darnold is rated so high. Don't get me wrong I like him and all. I just can't get why he grades out better than Baker or Rosen.

I don't get it either.

 

I haven't seen the games. But what I read is that he has a goofy throwing motion. And my friend who I defer to on college QB ratings thinks he is another USC bust in the making.

 

But he must have something going for him otherwise they wouldn't top out his grade like that. Maybe it is because he is so young to be as good as he is or something?

 

 

39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

So I have been grading college players since 2014. My top 10 QB grades in order since then are as below:

 

1. Marcus Mariota

2. Jameis Winston

3. Josh Rosen

4. Deshuan Watson

5. Carson Wentz

6. Jared Goff

7. Sam Darnold

8. Baker Mayfield

9. Blake Bortles

10. Mitch Trubisky

 

3 of my top 10 are in this draft. 

Oh. Well then I hope you get one of your guys. I can see why you would be antsy if that is how you see things.

[Sky Diver]

Take a flier on the best 2nd tier QB and build around McCarron.

[Bobby Hooks]

8 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Oh I know.

 

People here are overvaluing the QB’s this year because the Bills need one.

 

Does that mean food and water is overvalued because we need that?

11 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

Take a flier on the best 2nd tier QB and build around McCarron.

Terrible idea. We have the ammo to get a good one this year. 

 

If Mccarron beats the odds and works out you have even more trade ammo the next year. If not, you have a legit blue chipper sitting behind him.

Edited March 18, 2018 by Bobby Hooks

[Ittakestime]

This is very good. It goes along with what I have been saying all along. If you can't get Darnold, don't bother moving into top 6. See who falls and make the move into 7-11 if you have too jump a team that is trying to move up. 

[akm0404]

Build around the guy who carried Andy Dalton's pads for him. Adds up. 

 

And I like mccarron. 

[apuszczalowski]

1 hour ago, Bobby Hooks said:

Does that mean food and water is overvalued because we need that?

Terrible idea. We have the ammo to get a good one this year. 

 

If Mccarron beats the odds and works out you have even more trade ammo the next year. If not, you have a legit blue chipper sitting behind him.

But is the best guy in this draft a Manning or Mariota/Winston? And do you feel giving up the first 3 rounds of this year's draft is worth Mariota/Winston?

 

What some are saying is that the key to this year's draft is that there are many good QBs available, but no great ones. Is it worth the cost to move up to get just a good QB, which is what they may have actually signed already in McCarron. Theres no guarantee generational franchise cant miss QB this year like Manning or Luck. All of them have faults or concerns.

 

Just because the Bills need a franchise QB, it doesn't mean you have to be stupid and give away a boat load of picks to get someone who might never be that player. Theres more then one way to win, it might be smarter to build the rest of the team up right now while continuing to look for the right QB that won't involve giving up so much.

[Bobby Hooks]

8 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said:

But is the best guy in this draft a Manning or Mariota/Winston? And do you feel giving up the first 3 rounds of this year's draft is worth Mariota/Winston?

 

What some are saying is that the key to this year's draft is that there are many good QBs available, but no great ones. Is it worth the cost to move up to get just a good QB, which is what they may have actually signed already in McCarron. Theres no guarantee generational franchise cant miss QB this year like Manning or Luck. All of them have faults or concerns.

 

Just because the Bills need a franchise QB, it doesn't mean you have to be stupid and give away a boat load of picks to get someone who might never be that player. Theres more then one way to win, it might be smarter to build the rest of the team up right now while continuing to look for the right QB that won't involve giving up so much.

You’ll never have this much ammo again. At least not in a number of years. 

 

It was accrued knowing exacty what is was going to be used on. It would be dumb not to take your shot now while you have it. 

 

Good qb draft, you won’t have this type of ammo again in a long time. 

 

If not now, when? 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Hi everyone I just stole this from another fansite because it helped me understand this draft a bit better than I did.

 

Look at the NFL.com draft grades for this year versus other years. And I know the rankings can be inaccurate but they are some sort of gage.

 

My purpose in posting this is to share what I learned. I learned that they have been calling this a great draft for QBs because there are a bunch of 6's.

So lots to pick from is great. But at least from this chart the only one you would expect a team to trade their whole draft for is Sam Darnold.

And Goff and Wentz you can see, again at least from this chart, seemed to be more of a sure thing going in than most of the guys in the draft class.

 

So when they say next years looks like a lousy year for QB's . I wonder if they mean it is a lousy year like when it had EJ and Geno Smith, neither one of whom is fit to be a starter.

 

Or is it a lousy year because there are not 5 grade 6's? What say you?

 

 

Draft Year	Name	GRADE	Status	POS	HT	WT	School	Where drafted	Team
2018	DARNOLD, SAM*	7.0	--	QB	6'3"	220	USC
2015	Winston, Jameis	6.7	Starter	QB	6'4"	231	Florida St.	Pick 1, Round 1 (1)	Buccaneers
2016	Goff, Jared	6.5	Starter	QB	6'4"	215	California	Pick 1, Round 1 (1)	Rams
2016	Wentz, Carson	6.5	Starter	QB	6'5"	237	North Dakota St.	Pick 2, Round 1 (2)	Eagles
2017	Trubisky, Mitchell	6.3	Starter	QB	6'2"	222	North Carolina	Pick 2, Round 1 (2)	Bears
2015	Mariota, Marcus	6.2	Starter	QB	6'4"	222	Oregon	Pick 2, Round 1 (2)	Titans
2014	Bortles, Blake	6.2	Starter	QB	6'5"	232	Central Florida	Pick 3, Round 1 (3)	Jaguars
2014	Manziel, Johnny	6.1	OUT	QB	6'0"	207	Texas A&M	Pick 22, Round 1 (22)	Browns
2016	Lynch, Paxton	6.1	Backup	QB	6'7"	244	Memphis	Pick 26, Round 1 (26)	Broncos
2014	Bridgewater, Teddy	6.1	Starter	QB	6'2"	214	Louisville	Pick 32, Round 1 (32)	Vikings
2014	Carr, Derek	6.1	Starter	QB	6'2"	214	Fresno St.	Pick 4, Round 2 (36)	Raiders
2018	ROSEN, JOSH*	6.1	--	QB	6'4"	226	UCLA
2018	MAYFIELD, BAKER	6.0	--	QB	6'1"	215	Oklahoma
2018	ALLEN, JOSH	6.0	--	QB	6'5"	233	Wyoming
2017	Watson, Deshaun	5.9	Starter	QB	6'2"	221	Clemson	Pick 12, Round 1 (12)	Texans
2018	JACKSON, LAMAR*	5.9	--	QB	6'3"	200	Louisville
2017	Mahomes, Patrick	5.8	Starter	QB	6'2"	225	Texas Tech	Pick 10, Round 1 (10)	Chiefs
2016	Cook, Connor	5.8	Backup	QB	6'4"	217	Michigan St.	Pick 2, Round 4 (100)	Raiders
2014	Garoppolo, Jimmy	5.8	Starter	QB	6'2"	226	Eastern Illinois	Pick 30, Round 2 (62)	Patriots

 

Nice find Meanie (might consider a link, or giving credit?  If someone used my work on another site, I’d appreciate)

 

I’m assuming the draft grades are off nfl.com, which is Lance Zierlein’s scouting.  He’s quite accurate much of the time, but he’s human, he can be off both high and low in his grades

For example, he does not like Rosen - says his arm strength is questionable, which I think is baloney - and makes several accurate comments which typically reflect passion for the game of football, like playing “hero ball” and other traits resulting from trying too hard to win - right before questioning his passion for the game of football.

 

Anyway, I don’t know that I’d take it as gospel that all this year’s guys besides Darnold grade that low because Zierlein says so or Darnold is far and away the best because Zierlein says so.  What I do believe is that some teams aren’t enchanted by this years crop — thus Cousins, Keenum, etc — and I think it’s quite possible that Beane and Co, as they delve further in, may be reaching the conclusion that there’s no one they feel passionate enough about to spend the kind of draft capital they would have to put out.  They may well decided to go for someone they feel we can draft where we stand.

 

It would really bother me if that’s the case because I would see it as the same ‘OL same ‘OL Bills approach of underinvestment in QB we’ve seen for years.  But I would have to give McBeane the benefit of the doubt until next year if so, it’s not fair to blame them for 16 years shortcomings.

[BadLandsMeanie]

OK but if I get in trouble for advertising another site, or if the author hunts me down and berates me, that is on you and I hope you can live with yourself.

 

Somebody called TJO posted it here 

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/3/15/17128138/past-5-years-of-qb-draft-grade-analytics

 

That chart is his or hers and they did a great job with it because at least for me this info wasn't quick to find on NFL.com. The interpretation was mine.

[RocCityRoller]

3 hours ago, Bobby Hooks said:

Does that mean food and water is overvalued because we need that?

Terrible idea. We have the ammo to get a good one this year. 

 

If Mccarron beats the odds and works out you have even more trade ammo the next year. If not, you have a legit blue chipper sitting behind him.

 

No we don't, and no we didn't. Indy was very clear in stating they did not want to move out of the top ten. Buffalo had no top ten pick. Not enough ammo.

 

The Jet's did make a bold move and and sold the farm. Funny thing is now Cleveland has to draft the QB they want at #1 now. The Giants could still draft Eli's heir apparent, leaving the Jets with the 3rd QB and having not much else this year. Do you want the Bills to trade it all for potentially the #4 QB?

 

If the Giants go QB, and the Jets have to pick a QB now, Cleveland can get Barkley to pair with their new QB of the future. Why would they trade that away?

The Giants can get Eli's heir, or a stud to help Eli make one more push and ring #3. Why would they trade that away?

 

Only if Cleveland pulls a Cleveland and doesn't draft a QB, even after the Jets have telegraphed their move, and the Giants draft Eli help to make one more run does trading for the Cleveland #4 make sense. That is quite a few 'Iffs'.

 

You need a partner who wants what you can offer, and the draft to fall properly.

 

I'm all for having a deal in place with Cleveland for #4 ahead of the draft, but waiting to pull the trigger until the draft unfolds. If not let the draft work itself out and see who falls to #12. If QBS go 1,2,3 a franchise Defender or O-lineman is going to fall to 12 If not a top 4-5 QB will probably fall, and the Bills could still add a DT like Payne or LB like Vander Esch at 22, or the Bills could then take a QB at 12 and move up from 22 to get the defender/ O-lineman they want.

 

Patience grasshopper

 

Nothing would make me happier than Browns taking Darnold, Giants taking Rosen and the Jets left with Allen/Mayfield/Jackson at #3 after blowing their draft capital this year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 19, 2018 by RocCityRoller

[Bobby Hooks]

15 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

No we don't, and no we didn't. Indy was very clear in stating they did not want to move out of the top ten. Buffalo had no top ten pick. Not enough ammo.

 

The Jet's did, make a bold move and and sold the farm. Funny thing is now Cleveland has to draft the QB they want at #1 now. The Giants could still draft Eli's heir apparent, leaving the Jets with the 3rd QB and having not much else this year. Do you want the Bills to trade it all for potentially the #4 QB?

 

If the Giants go QB, and the Jets have to pick a QB now, Cleveland can get Barkley to pair with their new QB of the future. Why would they trade that away?

The Giants can get Eli's heir, or a stud to help Eli make one more push and ring #3. Why would they trade that away?

 

Only if Cleveland pulls a Cleveland and doesn't draft a QB, even after the Jets have telegraphed their move, and the Giants draft Eli help to make one more run does trading for the Cleveland #4 make sense. That is quite a few 'Iffs'.

 

You need a partner who wants what you can offer, and the draft to fall properly.

 

I'm all for having a deal in place with Cleveland for #4 ahead of the draft, but waiting to pull the trigger until the draft unfolds. If not let the draft work itself out and see who falls to #12. If QBS go 1,2,3 a franchise Defender or O-lineman is going to fall to 12 If not a top 4-5 QB will probably fall, and the Bills could still add a DT like Payne or LB like Vander Esch at 22, or the Bills could then take a QB at 12 and move up from 22 to get the defender/ O-lineman they want.

 

Patience grasshopper

 

Nothing would make me happier than Browns taking Darnold, Giants taking Rosen and the Jets left with Allen/Mayfield/Jackson at #3 after blowing their draft capital this year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The whole premise of your post is assuming I thought we could have gotten Indy’s pick. 

 

Since thats not the case, and I myself said they weren’t interested in moving back to 12 I’m really not sure what you’re trying to tell me here. 

 

I agree 4 is where we should make our move if the draft falls the way I hope it will. And we certainly have enough ammo to do it.

 

Nothing would make you happier than Darnold, and Rosen being taken at 1,2, leaving Mayfield to the Jets? 

 

Thats where you lose me. That’s the worst situation possible, grasshopper. 

 

Now if they drafted Allen, I’d do back flips and hope the Bills make that move doing whatever they have to. 

Edited March 19, 2018 by Bobby Hooks

[TPS]

2 hours ago, Ittakestime said:

This is very good. It goes along with what I have been saying all along. If you can't get Darnold, don't bother moving into top 6. See who falls and make the move into 7-11 if you have too jump a team that is trying to move up. 

I like this strategy too, and Pick 56 would more than do the trick to get 7.

[Real McClappy]

Looking at the chart again Peterman was actually a pretty good deal for were we drafted him.

 

Go figure he's right behind AJ

[RocCityRoller]

9 minutes ago, Bobby Hooks said:

The whole premise of your post is assuming I thought we could have gotten Indy’s pick. 

 

Since thats not the case, and I myself said they weren’t interested in moving back to 12 I’m really not sure what you’re trying to tell me here. 

 

I agree 4 is where we should make our move if the draft falls the way I hope it will. And we certainly have enough ammo to do it.

 

Nothing would make you happier than Darnold, and Rosen being taken at 1,2, leaving Mayfield to the Jets? 

 

Thats where you lose me. That’s the worst situation possible. 

 

Fair enough, I didn't see any mention of what pick in your post, and also the scenarios that could play out, or for what QB.

 

I am good with a wait and see approach now, with a few contingencies built in.

 

Another poster made a thoughtful post about the situation. If QBs go 4 in the top 10, and the highest BPA come off the board, then trade back from 12 for a later #1 and #2. Use the late 1st rounder to go after Foles, keep #22 and the third #2. Make moves/picks as warranted. Foles, 1st round LB, and three 2s to address OL, DL, WR would be pretty hot. The Jets move sucks, but Buffalo as a lot of capital to make things happen.

 

 

Edited March 19, 2018 by RocCityRoller

[Bobby Hooks]

1 minute ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

Fair enough, I didn't see any mention of what pick in your post, and also the scenarios that could play out, or for what QB.

 

I am good with a wait and see approach now, with a few contingencies built in.

 

Another poster made a thoughtful post about the situation. If QBs go 4 in the top 10, and the highest BPA come off the board, then trade back from 12 for a later #1 and #2. Use the late 1st rounder to go after Foles, keep #22 and the third #2. Make moves picks as warranted. Foles, 1st round LB, and three 2s to address OL, DL, WR would be pretty hot. The Jets move sucks, but Buffalo as a lot of capital to make things happen.

 

 

Yeah, I’m open to something along those lines. If you proposed that to me before the Jets trade I would have tried to bite you. 

 

I was all all hyped on moving ahead of everyone and nabbing our guy. Media was helping the cause, which is probably why the Jets felt the need to move so fast. 

 

The trade was a bitter pill. No way around it. All we can really do now is wait and hopefully have some contingencies in place like you said. 

 

 

 

 

[KCNC]

9 hours ago, B Fan in LA said:

 

Count me in with the crowd that does not want to trade up any further.

I'd be happy with Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph

 

 

Same here.

[Ittakestime]

34 minutes ago, TPS said:

I like this strategy too, and Pick 56 would more than do the trick to get 7.

 

May just need to get above Miami which would take the 65th pick. Would be huge at filling needs. 

[TPS]

15 minutes ago, Ittakestime said:

 

May just need to get above Miami which would take the 65th pick. Would be huge at filling needs. 

But you don't want to let someone else jump to 7 first. 

[RocCityRoller]

1 hour ago, Bobby Hooks said:

Yeah, I’m open to something along those lines. If you proposed that to me before the Jets trade I would have tried to bite you. 

 

I was all all hyped on moving ahead of everyone and nabbing our guy. Media was helping the cause, which is probably why the Jets felt the need to move so fast. 

 

The trade was a bitter pill. No way around it. All we can really do now is wait and hopefully have some contingencies in place like you said. 

 

just looking at the facts now. It's still a good situation. Did a recent mock on difficult setting w/o trades and ended up with:

12: R1P12

EDGE HAROLD LANDRY

BOSTON COLLEGE

22: R1P22

LB RASHAAN EVANS

ALABAMA

53: R2P21

DL DARON PAYNE

ALABAMA

56: R2P24

C JAMES DANIELS

IOWA

65: R3P1

QB MIKE WHITE

WESTERN KENTUCKY

96: R3P32

WR D.J. CHARK

LSU

121: R4P21

OT GERON CHRISTIAN

LOUISVILLE

166: R5P29

RB KALEN BALLAGE

ARIZONA STATE

187: R6P13

CB BRANDON FACYSON

VIRGINIA TECH

 

Got the top Edge rusher (6.1 grade), top 3 LB, top 3 DL, top C, best QB prospect after Rudolph, #4 WR with 4.3 speed and 6'3" size, a swing tackle, a 6'1 227 back with 4.46 speed (KR/PR and 3rd option at RB), and a 6'2 cb with 4.53 speed

 

Build the team, with 100 million next year you can buy a QB if McCarron, White, Peterman can't do it

Edited March 19, 2018 by RocCityRoller

[Ol Dirty B]

5 hours ago, Sky Diver said:

Take a flier on the best 2nd tier QB and build around McCarron.

 

That's a horrible idea, and I'm going to chalk it up to your avy as to why you...

 

a} Like McCarron

b) Don't know what good QB play looks like, because it's not coming from the Bills or Alabama

c) Undervalue QB play because your college team is in contention to win it every year with mediocre to below average QB play because they field great players on both sides of the ball all around that guy. We've done that here, no thanks. I want who they think is the best QB prospect. Not some other version of half assing it at the position. 

Edited March 19, 2018 by Ol Dirty B

[BigBuff423]

21 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Hi everyone I just stole this from another fansite because it helped me understand this draft a bit better than I did.

 

Look at the NFL.com draft grades for this year versus other years. And I know the rankings can be inaccurate but they are some sort of gage.

 

My purpose in posting this is to share what I learned. I learned that they have been calling this a great draft for QBs because there are a bunch of 6's.

So lots to pick from is great. But at least from this chart the only one you would expect a team to trade their whole draft for is Sam Darnold.

And Goff and Wentz you can see, again at least from this chart, seemed to be more of a sure thing going in than most of the guys in the draft class.

 

So when they say next years looks like a lousy year for QB's . I wonder if they mean it is a lousy year like when it had EJ and Geno Smith, neither one of whom is fit to be a starter.

 

Or is it a lousy year because there are not 5 grade 6's? What say you?

 

 

Draft Year	Name	GRADE	Status	POS	HT	WT	School	Where drafted	Team
2018	DARNOLD, SAM*	7.0	--	QB	6'3"	220	USC
2015	Winston, Jameis	6.7	Starter	QB	6'4"	231	Florida St.	Pick 1, Round 1 (1)	Buccaneers
2016	Goff, Jared	6.5	Starter	QB	6'4"	215	California	Pick 1, Round 1 (1)	Rams
2016	Wentz, Carson	6.5	Starter	QB	6'5"	237	North Dakota St.	Pick 2, Round 1 (2)	Eagles
2017	Trubisky, Mitchell	6.3	Starter	QB	6'2"	222	North Carolina	Pick 2, Round 1 (2)	Bears
2015	Mariota, Marcus	6.2	Starter	QB	6'4"	222	Oregon	Pick 2, Round 1 (2)	Titans
2014	Bortles, Blake	6.2	Starter	QB	6'5"	232	Central Florida	Pick 3, Round 1 (3)	Jaguars
2014	Manziel, Johnny	6.1	OUT	QB	6'0"	207	Texas A&M	Pick 22, Round 1 (22)	Browns
2016	Lynch, Paxton	6.1	Backup	QB	6'7"	244	Memphis	Pick 26, Round 1 (26)	Broncos
2014	Bridgewater, Teddy	6.1	Starter	QB	6'2"	214	Louisville	Pick 32, Round 1 (32)	Vikings
2014	Carr, Derek	6.1	Starter	QB	6'2"	214	Fresno St.	Pick 4, Round 2 (36)	Raiders
2018	ROSEN, JOSH*	6.1	--	QB	6'4"	226	UCLA
2018	MAYFIELD, BAKER	6.0	--	QB	6'1"	215	Oklahoma
2018	ALLEN, JOSH	6.0	--	QB	6'5"	233	Wyoming
2017	Watson, Deshaun	5.9	Starter	QB	6'2"	221	Clemson	Pick 12, Round 1 (12)	Texans
2018	JACKSON, LAMAR*	5.9	--	QB	6'3"	200	Louisville
2017	Mahomes, Patrick	5.8	Starter	QB	6'2"	225	Texas Tech	Pick 10, Round 1 (10)	Chiefs
2016	Cook, Connor	5.8	Backup	QB	6'4"	217	Michigan St.	Pick 2, Round 4 (100)	Raiders
2014	Garoppolo, Jimmy	5.8	Starter	QB	6'2"	226	Eastern Illinois	Pick 30, Round 2 (62)	Patriots
2017	Kizer, DeShone	5.7	Backup	QB	6'4"	233	Notre Dame	Pick 20, Round 2 (52)	Browns
2014	McCarron, AJ	5.7	Backup	QB	6'3"	220	Alabama	Pick 24, Round 5 (164)	Bengals
2017	Peterman, Nathan	5.7	Backup	QB	6'2"	226	Pittsburgh	Pick 28, Round 5 (171)	Bills
2018	RUDOLPH, MASON	5.6	--	QB	6'5"	235	Oklahoma St.
2016	Hackenberg, Christian	5.5	Backup	QB	6'4"	223	Penn St.	Pick 20, Round 2 (51)	Jets
2016	Brissett, Jacoby	5.5	Backup	QB	6'4"	231	N.C. State	Pick 29, Round 3 (91)	Patriots
2016	Prescott, Dak	5.4	Starter	QB	6'2"	226	Mississippi St.	Pick 37, Round 4 (135)	Cowboys
2015	Petty, Bryce	5.4	Backup	QB	6'3"	230	Baylor	Pick 4, Round 4 (103)	Jets
2015	Grayson, Garrett	5.3	Backup	QB	6'2"	213	Colorado St.	Pick 11, Round 3 (75)	Saints
2015	Hundley, Brett	5.3	Backup	QB	6'3"	226	UCLA	Pick 11, Round 5 (147)	Packer

 

 

 

 

Thank you for this...it is important to keep some perspective as we, as fans, can get all worked-up to go get "our guy...no matter the cost!". But the NFL is a league driven by numbers, performance, and calculated risks....and to that end, I really like how Beane seems to approach the situation. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

21 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Exactly this.  I don't like any of the QBs in this draft enough to want the Bills to move up from 12 for him for what it will now cost to do it.

And that is what I agree with. While I wouldn't mind a slight jump (6-10) if one of the "top" guys slips I'd say any of them have a chance to both succeed or fail at the NFL level. No sense moving a ton of picks in a draft that has good players at positions we need. If that means AJ McCarron is the starter next year...so be it. It's still an improvement over Taylor IMO.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

If Cleveland takes a QB I see the Giants getting their card in for Barkley faster than any team ever has. Judging by the pro scouts I'm guessing Darnold will be off the board at 1 or 2 depending on what Cleveland does. I have no idea who the Jets might be targeting at QB.

5 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:

And that is what I agree with. While I wouldn't mind a slight jump (6-10) if one of the "top" guys slips I'd say any of them have a chance to both succeed or fail at the NFL level. No sense moving a ton of picks in a draft that has good players at positions we need. If that means AJ McCarron is the starter next year...so be it. It's still an improvement over Taylor IMO.

I agree, if a guy they like slips to 6 - 10 range then I would trade a few picks to get him.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

If you don't think this year is a great QB class there will never be a class where you're intrigued. Wish we could fast forward to Stidham/Eason/Lock next year and see how everyone regrets not taking a QB this year.