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It's a Good Year For QB's Because There Are a Lot, Not Because They Are Great


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Yes, a chart that has Johnny Football, Blake Bortles, and Paxton Lynch in the top 10, is why we should settle for QB. The stats exist and it's basically just arguing with a wall now, you hit 3x as much in the first few picks as you do the entire rest of the draft. 

 

We are one of 2 teams since the 1970s that have not taken a QB top ten. Wonder why we had a drought and haven't done a damn thing in 20 years. 

Edited by Elite Poster
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22 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Hi everyone I just stole this from another fansite because it helped me understand this draft a bit better than I did.

 

Look at the NFL.com draft grades for this year versus other years. And I know the rankings can be inaccurate but they are some sort of gage.

 

My purpose in posting this is to share what I learned. I learned that they have been calling this a great draft for QBs because there are a bunch of 6's.

So lots to pick from is great. But at least from this chart the only one you would expect a team to trade their whole draft for is Sam Darnold.

And Goff and Wentz you can see, again at least from this chart, seemed to be more of a sure thing going in than most of the guys in the draft class.

 

So when they say next years looks like a lousy year for QB's . I wonder if they mean it is a lousy year like when it had EJ and Geno Smith, neither one of whom is fit to be a starter.

 

Or is it a lousy year because there are not 5 grade 6's? What say you?

 

 

Draft Year

Name

GRADE

Status

POS

HT

WT

School

Where drafted

Team

2018

DARNOLD, SAM*

7.0

--

QB

6'3"

220

USC

   

2015

Winston, Jameis

6.7

Starter

QB

6'4"

231

Florida St.

Pick 1, Round 1 (1)

Buccaneers

2016

Goff, Jared

6.5

Starter

QB

6'4"

215

California

Pick 1, Round 1 (1)

Rams

2016

Wentz, Carson

6.5

Starter

QB

6'5"

237

North Dakota St.

Pick 2, Round 1 (2)

Eagles

2017

Trubisky, Mitchell

6.3

Starter

QB

6'2"

222

North Carolina

Pick 2, Round 1 (2)

Bears

2015

Mariota, Marcus

6.2

Starter

QB

6'4"

222

Oregon

Pick 2, Round 1 (2)

Titans

2014

Bortles, Blake

6.2

Starter

QB

6'5"

232

Central Florida

Pick 3, Round 1 (3)

Jaguars

2014

Manziel, Johnny

6.1

OUT

QB

6'0"

207

Texas A&M

Pick 22, Round 1 (22)

Browns

2016

Lynch, Paxton

6.1

Backup

QB

6'7"

244

Memphis

Pick 26, Round 1 (26)

Broncos

2014

Bridgewater, Teddy

6.1

Starter

QB

6'2"

214

Louisville

Pick 32, Round 1 (32)

Vikings

2014

Carr, Derek

6.1

Starter

QB

6'2"

214

Fresno St.

Pick 4, Round 2 (36)

Raiders

2018

ROSEN, JOSH*

6.1

--

QB

6'4"

226

UCLA

   

2018

MAYFIELD, BAKER

6.0

--

QB

6'1"

215

Oklahoma

   

2018

ALLEN, JOSH

6.0

--

QB

6'5"

233

Wyoming

   

2017

Watson, Deshaun

5.9

Starter

QB

6'2"

221

Clemson

Pick 12, Round 1 (12)

Texans

2018

JACKSON, LAMAR*

5.9

--

QB

6'3"

200

Louisville

   

2017

Mahomes, Patrick

5.8

Starter

QB

6'2"

225

Texas Tech

Pick 10, Round 1 (10)

Chiefs

2016

Cook, Connor

5.8

Backup

QB

6'4"

217

Michigan St.

Pick 2, Round 4 (100)

Raiders

2014

Garoppolo, Jimmy

5.8

Starter

QB

6'2"

226

Eastern Illinois

Pick 30, Round 2 (62)

Patriots

2017

Kizer, DeShone

5.7

Backup

QB

6'4"

233

Notre Dame

Pick 20, Round 2 (52)

Browns

2014

McCarron, AJ

5.7

Backup

QB

6'3"

220

Alabama

Pick 24, Round 5 (164)

Bengals

2017

Peterman, Nathan

5.7

Backup

QB

6'2"

226

Pittsburgh

Pick 28, Round 5 (171)

Bills

2018

RUDOLPH, MASON

5.6

--

QB

6'5"

235

Oklahoma St.

   

2016

Hackenberg, Christian

5.5

Backup

QB

6'4"

223

Penn St.

Pick 20, Round 2 (51)

Jets

2016

Brissett, Jacoby

5.5

Backup

QB

6'4"

231

N.C. State

Pick 29, Round 3 (91)

Patriots

2016

Prescott, Dak

5.4

Starter

QB

6'2"

226

Mississippi St.

Pick 37, Round 4 (135)

Cowboys

2015

Petty, Bryce

5.4

Backup

QB

6'3"

230

Baylor

Pick 4, Round 4 (103)

Jets

2015

Grayson, Garrett

5.3

Backup

QB

6'2"

213

Colorado St.

Pick 11, Round 3 (75)

Saints

2015

Hundley, Brett

5.3

Backup

QB

6'3"

226

UCLA

Pick 11, Round 5 (147)

Packer

 


 

 

 

This list is absolutely fascinating.. I do think you’re onto something here.  

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58 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

Yes, a chart that has Johnny Football, Blake Bortles, and Paxton Lynch in the top 10, is why we should settle for QB. The stats exist and it's basically just arguing with a wall now, you hit 3x as much in the first few picks as you do the entire rest of the draft. 

 

We are one of 2 teams since the 1970s that have not taken a QB top ten. Wonder why we had a drought and haven't done a damn thing in 20 years. 

 

The 1970s, huh?  Had to really stretch to find that choice tidbit.

 

When was the last time the Green Bay Packers drafted a QB in the top ten?  At least 25 years ago because they got Rodgers at #24 and they traded for Favre who was a second rounder.  

 

When was the last time the Pittsburgh Steelers drafted a QB in the top ten?  I'm guessing it was back about 1970 when they took Terry Bradshaw because Roethlisberger was taken at #11.   Oh, yeah, and the Stillers went to the SB with Neil O'Donnell IIRC, and they won playoff games with the likes of Bubby Brister and Kordell Stewart.  The Vikings have been a playoff team far more often than the Bills since 1970, and they haven't taken a top ten QB in decades.  The last first rounder I remember them taking was Trent Edwards-clone Christian Ponder in 2011.

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19 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

The 1970s, huh?  Had to really stretch to find that choice tidbit.

 

When was the last time the Green Bay Packers drafted a QB in the top ten?  At least 25 years ago because they got Rodgers at #24 and they traded for Favre who was a second rounder.  

 

When was the last time the Pittsburgh Steelers drafted a QB in the top ten?  I'm guessing it was back about 1970 when they took Terry Bradshaw because Roethlisberger was taken at #11.   Oh, yeah, and the Stillers went to the SB with Neil O'Donnell IIRC, and they won playoff games with the likes of Bubby Brister and Kordell Stewart.  The Vikings have been a playoff team far more often than the Bills since 1970, and they haven't taken a top ten QB in decades.  The last first rounder I remember them taking was Trent Edwards-clone Christian Ponder in 2011.

 

I like stats, not feelings.

 

DXkLTuxVQAET7y2.thumb.jpg.a3617123e5d55c8bd105aa07d6824fb3.jpg

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On 3/18/2018 at 7:00 AM, BadLandsMeanie said:

Hi everyone I just stole this from another fansite because it helped me understand this draft a bit better than I did.

 

Look at the NFL.com draft grades for this year versus other years. And I know the rankings can be inaccurate but they are some sort of gage.

 

My purpose in posting this is to share what I learned. I learned that they have been calling this a great draft for QBs because there are a bunch of 6's.

So lots to pick from is great. But at least from this chart the only one you would expect a team to trade their whole draft for is Sam Darnold.

And Goff and Wentz you can see, again at least from this chart, seemed to be more of a sure thing going in than most of the guys in the draft class.

 

So when they say next years looks like a lousy year for QB's . I wonder if they mean it is a lousy year like when it had EJ and Geno Smith, neither one of whom is fit to be a starter.

 

Or is it a lousy year because there are not 5 grade 6's? What say you?

 

 

Draft Year

Name

GRADE

Status

POS

HT

WT

School

Where drafted

Team

2018

DARNOLD, SAM*

7.0

--

QB

6'3"

220

USC

   

2015

Winston, Jameis

6.7

Starter

QB

6'4"

231

Florida St.

Pick 1, Round 1 (1)

Buccaneers

2016

Goff, Jared

6.5

Starter

QB

6'4"

215

California

Pick 1, Round 1 (1)

Rams

2016

Wentz, Carson

6.5

Starter

QB

6'5"

237

North Dakota St.

Pick 2, Round 1 (2)

Eagles

2017

Trubisky, Mitchell

6.3

Starter

QB

6'2"

222

North Carolina

Pick 2, Round 1 (2)

Bears

2015

Mariota, Marcus

6.2

Starter

QB

6'4"

222

Oregon

Pick 2, Round 1 (2)

Titans

2014

Bortles, Blake

6.2

Starter

QB

6'5"

232

Central Florida

Pick 3, Round 1 (3)

Jaguars

2014

Manziel, Johnny

6.1

OUT

QB

6'0"

207

Texas A&M

Pick 22, Round 1 (22)

Browns

2016

Lynch, Paxton

6.1

Backup

QB

6'7"

244

Memphis

Pick 26, Round 1 (26)

Broncos

2014

Bridgewater, Teddy

6.1

Starter

QB

6'2"

214

Louisville

Pick 32, Round 1 (32)

Vikings

2014

Carr, Derek

6.1

Starter

QB

6'2"

214

Fresno St.

Pick 4, Round 2 (36)

Raiders

2018

ROSEN, JOSH*

6.1

--

QB

6'4"

226

UCLA

   

2018

MAYFIELD, BAKER

6.0

--

QB

6'1"

215

Oklahoma

   

2018

ALLEN, JOSH

6.0

--

QB

6'5"

233

Wyoming

   

2017

Watson, Deshaun

5.9

Starter

QB

6'2"

221

Clemson

Pick 12, Round 1 (12)

Texans

2018

JACKSON, LAMAR*

5.9

--

QB

6'3"

200

Louisville

   

2017

Mahomes, Patrick

5.8

Starter

QB

6'2"

225

Texas Tech

Pick 10, Round 1 (10)

Chiefs

2016

Cook, Connor

5.8

Backup

QB

6'4"

217

Michigan St.

Pick 2, Round 4 (100)

Raiders

2014

Garoppolo, Jimmy

5.8

Starter

QB

6'2"

226

Eastern Illinois

Pick 30, Round 2 (62)

Patriots

2017

Kizer, DeShone

5.7

Backup

QB

6'4"

233

Notre Dame

Pick 20, Round 2 (52)

Browns

2014

McCarron, AJ

5.7

Backup

QB

6'3"

220

Alabama

Pick 24, Round 5 (164)

Bengals

2017

Peterman, Nathan

5.7

Backup

QB

6'2"

226

Pittsburgh

Pick 28, Round 5 (171)

Bills

2018

RUDOLPH, MASON

5.6

--

QB

6'5"

235

Oklahoma St.

   

2016

Hackenberg, Christian

5.5

Backup

QB

6'4"

223

Penn St.

Pick 20, Round 2 (51)

Jets

2016

Brissett, Jacoby

5.5

Backup

QB

6'4"

231

N.C. State

Pick 29, Round 3 (91)

Patriots

2016

Prescott, Dak

5.4

Starter

QB

6'2"

226

Mississippi St.

Pick 37, Round 4 (135)

Cowboys

2015

Petty, Bryce

5.4

Backup

QB

6'3"

230

Baylor

Pick 4, Round 4 (103)

Jets

2015

Grayson, Garrett

5.3

Backup

QB

6'2"

213

Colorado St.

Pick 11, Round 3 (75)

Saints

2015

Hundley, Brett

5.3

Backup

QB

6'3"

226

UCLA

Pick 11, Round 5 (147)

Packer

 


 

 

 

 

This is an excellent post.

 

And another reason why not to trade away McD's firstborn and Beane's left n*t to trade up above the Jets.  The price the Jests paid to move up 3 spots is frightening. 

 

Some scouts say this is a very rich draft with lots of future starters and stars.  In other words, this is a great draft to have a lot of picks.  

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3 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Some scouts say this is a very rich draft with lots of future starters and stars.  In other words, this is a great draft to have a lot of picks.  

 

Part of my desire to move up is that I do not believe the above is true.  I am not a lover of this draft class. I think QB, interior DL, Linebackers and running backs are pretty deep..... but try finding a starting corner or receiver after round 1 - that will be tricky.  I think there are some decent round 1 and 2 oline but it drops off quickly after that.  I only have 19 genuine first round grades at the moment.  

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The point that many are trying to make isn't that they don't think the Bills need to get a QB, but that this draft class isn't hyped because of the great quality of the top guys, but more then number of the potential guys available. There aren't any sure things or guarantees in this class, they all have some issues and concerns and it's more likely that the level of these may top out in the Winston/Marriotta level then the Mannings/Luck/Brees level. Many don't think the value is there to trade most of their top picks this year or next to move up for a good but not great starter when even the 4th or 5th QB in this draft has that potential.

 

The cost is going to be huge to move up to get in front of the Jets, and theres no guarantee the guys there are going to be so much better then the 4th or 5th guy.

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18 hours ago, Bobby Hooks said:

Does that mean food and water is overvalued because we need that?

Terrible idea. We have the ammo to get a good one this year. 

 

If Mccarron beats the odds and works out you have even more trade ammo the next year. If not, you have a legit blue chipper sitting behind him.

If you were desperate for food, you be darned sure that worms, slugs and some sort of animal dung would be higher on your list than they usually are.

 

Cone at me BRO!

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18 hours ago, Bobby Hooks said:

Does that mean food and water is overvalued because we need that?

Terrible idea. We have the ammo to get a good one this year. 

 

If Mccarron beats the odds and works out you have even more trade ammo the next year. If not, you have a legit blue chipper sitting behind him.

 

Mate you looking into buying or selling anything? 

 

Id love to help you out...?

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It's all subjective evaluation. It's just that some is more informed than others. Zierlein et al just aren't in a position to put in the man hours required to fully evaluate these prospects. Heck, NFL teams still aren't finished with their due diligence and rankings at this point. That said, I think the Bills, Jest, and others have a prospect that's a clear front runner with everybody else tightly packed in the rankings. 

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Part of my desire to move up is that I do not believe the above is true.  I am not a lover of this draft class. I think QB, interior DL, Linebackers and running backs are pretty deep..... but try finding a starting corner or receiver after round 1 - that will be tricky.  I think there are some decent round 1 and 2 oline but it drops off quickly after that.  I only have 19 genuine first round grades at the moment.  

 

I think a lot boils down then to how closely your evaluation compares with how McBean sees it.

 

Two questions for you. One is McBeane has said he is just about out of free agent money. I am wondering if he trades away a bunch of picks to grab a QB, what is he going to do about restocking the roster? There must be some way to do it but I am thinking it would be ugly. They just shipped a whole bunch of decent players out of here. They will have to give away the top of two drafts, give or take, to get where they need to be. How would you pull that off and not get fired?

 

Question 2 is: Do you agree with me at all when I say; The problem the Bills have had is that they did not take quarterbacks when they had the opportunity. I mean when they could have just picked one. Garopolo was there for example and they instead took a lineman with bad knee who went to the practice squad. They did not take Wilson. They did not take Prescott. These people were just sitting there for a low cost risk to see how they might turn out. The Bills wouldn't do it. Neither did they trade up a few spots to grab somebody.  They just sat there.

 

So I think maybe the way out of what they have done is to trade away a whole big bunch of draft picks. It could work.

 

But do you agree the the problem we have now is rooted in them failing to take what was in front of their faces for a reasonable cost year after year? 

 

 

Edited by BadLandsMeanie
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5 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

 

I think a lot boils down then to how closely your evaluation compares with how McBean sees it.

 

Two questions for you. One is McBeane has said he is just about out of free agent money. I am wondering if he trades away a bunch of picks to grab a QB, what is he going to do about restocking the roster? There must be some way to do it but I am thinking it would be ugly. They just shipped a whole bunch of decent players out of here. They will have to give away the top of two drafts, give or take, to get where they need to be. How would you pull that off and not get fired?

 

Question 2 is: Do you agree with me at all when I say; The problem the Bills have had is that they did not take quarterbacks when they had the opportunity. I mean when they could have just picked one. Garopolo was there for example and they instead took a lineman with bad knee who went to the practice squad. They did not take Wilson. They did not take Prescott. These people were just sitting there for a low cost risk to see how they might turn out. The Bills wouldn't do it. Neither did they trade up a few spots to grab somebody.  They just sat there.

 

So I think maybe the way out of what they have done is to trade away a whole big bunch of draft picks. It could work.

 

But do you agree the the problem we have now is rooted in them failing to take what was in front of their faces for a reasonable cost year after year? 

 

 

 

I do agree. I'd have raced to podium and selected Deshaun Watson last year and said so at the time. If I thought there might be options in 2019 I might be more relaxed about not taking one in 2018... but the 2019 QB class looks awful a year out. Someone could appear from nowhere ala Trubisky last year but if they don't you could be looking at a 2013 level class. Which means if they don't do what it takes this year.... then you are waiting until 2020.... not sure McDermott and Beane get that long unless AJ plays beyond expectations. 

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48 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I do agree. I'd have raced to podium and selected Deshaun Watson last year and said so at the time. If I thought there might be options in 2019 I might be more relaxed about not taking one in 2018... but the 2019 QB class looks awful a year out. Someone could appear from nowhere ala Trubisky last year but if they don't you could be looking at a 2013 level class. Which means if they don't do what it takes this year.... then you are waiting until 2020.... not sure McDermott and Beane get that long unless AJ plays beyond expectations. 

Yep. They have a time problem. 

 

Which is what the Bills always do. I just had that thought now and I don't like it.

 

But think about it last year there were quarterbacks for just one pick and they didn't take them.

 

Now we need a QB and they have to take one and pay more than they should, or maybe get fired for not doing it, down the road. Just like everyone before them. Too much for JP. Too much for EJ (wasn't worth a first)

 

I wonder what they will do? I hope they know! Meanwhile yes lets hope AJ works out better than expected!

Edited by BadLandsMeanie
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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I do agree. I'd have raced to podium and selected Deshaun Watson last year and said so at the time. If I thought there might be options in 2019 I might be more relaxed about not taking one in 2018... but the 2019 QB class looks awful a year out. Someone could appear from nowhere ala Trubisky last year but if they don't you could be looking at a 2013 level class. Which means if they don't do what it takes this year.... then you are waiting until 2020.... not sure McDermott and Beane get that long unless AJ plays beyond expectations. 

I don't think they have such a time crunch to get one from TP

I know its popular to believe that TP gave the new guys an ultimatum to obtain a franchise QB, but its also likely that after last season he saw what they were able to do with the roster they had and TP told them to do what they are doing and as long as the team continues to look like its getting better they are safe and will have whatever assetts they need to do what they need to. For all we know they have a decent franchise Qb in McCaron. The Browns were willing to give up a couple high picks for him at the deadline

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On 3/18/2018 at 10:00 AM, BadLandsMeanie said:

Hi everyone I just stole this from another fansite because it helped me understand this draft a bit better than I did.

 

Look at the NFL.com draft grades for this year versus other years. And I know the rankings can be inaccurate but they are some sort of gage.

 

My purpose in posting this is to share what I learned. I learned that they have been calling this a great draft for QBs because there are a bunch of 6's.

So lots to pick from is great. But at least from this chart the only one you would expect a team to trade their whole draft for is Sam Darnold.

And Goff and Wentz you can see, again at least from this chart, seemed to be more of a sure thing going in than most of the guys in the draft class.

 

So when they say next years looks like a lousy year for QB's . I wonder if they mean it is a lousy year like when it had EJ and Geno Smith, neither one of whom is fit to be a starter.

 

Or is it a lousy year because there are not 5 grade 6's? What say you?

 

 

Draft Year

Name

GRADE

Status

POS

HT

WT

School

Where drafted

Team

2018

DARNOLD, SAM*

7.0

--

QB

6'3"

220

USC

   

2015

Winston, Jameis

6.7

Starter

QB

6'4"

231

Florida St.

Pick 1, Round 1 (1)

Buccaneers

2016

Goff, Jared

6.5

Starter

QB

6'4"

215

California

Pick 1, Round 1 (1)

Rams

2016

Wentz, Carson

6.5

Starter

QB

6'5"

237

North Dakota St.

Pick 2, Round 1 (2)

Eagles

2017

Trubisky, Mitchell

6.3

Starter

QB

6'2"

222

North Carolina

Pick 2, Round 1 (2)

Bears

2015

Mariota, Marcus

6.2

Starter

QB

6'4"

222

Oregon

Pick 2, Round 1 (2)

Titans

2014

Bortles, Blake

6.2

Starter

QB

6'5"

232

Central Florida

Pick 3, Round 1 (3)

Jaguars

2014

Manziel, Johnny

6.1

OUT

QB

6'0"

207

Texas A&M

Pick 22, Round 1 (22)

Browns

2016

Lynch, Paxton

6.1

Backup

QB

6'7"

244

Memphis

Pick 26, Round 1 (26)

Broncos

2014

Bridgewater, Teddy

6.1

Starter

QB

6'2"

214

Louisville

Pick 32, Round 1 (32)

Vikings

2014

Carr, Derek

6.1

Starter

QB

6'2"

214

Fresno St.

Pick 4, Round 2 (36)

Raiders

2018

ROSEN, JOSH*

6.1

--

QB

6'4"

226

UCLA

   

2018

MAYFIELD, BAKER

6.0

--

QB

6'1"

215

Oklahoma

   

2018

ALLEN, JOSH

6.0

--

QB

6'5"

233

Wyoming

   

2017

Watson, Deshaun

5.9

Starter

QB

6'2"

221

Clemson

Pick 12, Round 1 (12)

Texans

2018

JACKSON, LAMAR*

5.9

--

QB

6'3"

200

Louisville

   

2017

Mahomes, Patrick

5.8

Starter

QB

6'2"

225

Texas Tech

Pick 10, Round 1 (10)

Chiefs

2016

Cook, Connor

5.8

Backup

QB

6'4"

217

Michigan St.

Pick 2, Round 4 (100)

Raiders

2014

Garoppolo, Jimmy

5.8

Starter

QB

6'2"

226

Eastern Illinois

Pick 30, Round 2 (62)

Patriots

2017

Kizer, DeShone

5.7

Backup

QB

6'4"

233

Notre Dame

Pick 20, Round 2 (52)

Browns

2014

McCarron, AJ

5.7

Backup

QB

6'3"

220

Alabama

Pick 24, Round 5 (164)

Bengals

2017

Peterman, Nathan

5.7

Backup

QB

6'2"

226

Pittsburgh

Pick 28, Round 5 (171)

Bills

2018

RUDOLPH, MASON

5.6

--

QB

6'5"

235

Oklahoma St.

   

2016

Hackenberg, Christian

5.5

Backup

QB

6'4"

223

Penn St.

Pick 20, Round 2 (51)

Jets

2016

Brissett, Jacoby

5.5

Backup

QB

6'4"

231

N.C. State

Pick 29, Round 3 (91)

Patriots

2016

Prescott, Dak

5.4

Starter

QB

6'2"

226

Mississippi St.

Pick 37, Round 4 (135)

Cowboys

2015

Petty, Bryce

5.4

Backup

QB

6'3"

230

Baylor

Pick 4, Round 4 (103)

Jets

2015

Grayson, Garrett

5.3

Backup

QB

6'2"

213

Colorado St.

Pick 11, Round 3 (75)

Saints

2015

Hundley, Brett

5.3

Backup

QB

6'3"

226

UCLA

Pick 11, Round 5 (147)

Packer

 


 

 

Based on the above list, the 2014 QB class was rated higher than this years. 

With Peterman and macaron both above Rudolph. 

 

Point being. 

 

Dont believe the hype. This is not a one in a lifetime QB class. Its an average, maybe slightly above average class. Don't mortgage the future to draft the 3rd, 4th or 5th best QB in this class. 

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