How Can a 5 Year Vet QB NOT Know How To Read a Defense? A Different Viewpoint

[Chicharito]

First of all players make their own decisions to play football. With that being said they should study playbooks relentlessly they get paid millions of dollars to do this. 

[Mat68]

3 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

How well was Brady reading the defense on the pick 6 we got?

Quite well actually.  Showed  cover 2 pre snap, post snap hyde stayed deep on the hash showing cover 2 still.  Play side route combination pressumably would block poyer.  Poyer played robber and jumped the route.  Simple goutcha

[keepthefaith]

Some people were able to read the label on a 45RPM record going around.  Others never could.

Edited January 11, 2018 by keepthefaith

[mead107]

Sorry, to long. 

4 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Hello,

This will be long and maybe boring but hopefully not stupid.

 

This will be about reading defenses and how the Bills might try to predict who a good QB will be which is apparently very hard.

I woke up this morning with the thought in my head, “How can a veteran QB not know how to read a defense?” I woke up thinking about football and the Bills QB search and the draft and so on, because there is something wrong with me. I was probably dreaming about it too (because let’s be honest, there must be something wrong with me).

 

Now everybody knows including me how hard it is for QB to learn to read defenses quickly because all you have to do is watch the games and maybe half of the starters can’t do it. And I bought a copy of an older NFL playbook off ebay one time and they are no picnic to understand. I never did get so I understood it fully.

So my thinking has always been that it takes a special talent to be able to do that so fast. I watched the game film of the San Diego game and it was plain that Phillip Rivers could read the defense and what the coverages were going to be about one second after the ball was snapped. After one second everyone had made their moves and he (and I with the benefit of rewind and slow motion) could see what the defensive pass coverage was going to be. And Philip Rivers killed us with it.

 

But for some reason this morning I was thinking how they could not know, and my line of thought then went along like this.

 

Figure if a guy treats the NFL like he has or had a full time job like you and me. The team pretty much owns them from August to January. So that is 5 months and figure in some weeks of vacation I will call it 6 months of being with the team full and vacation time.

 

If a man treats the other 6 months as a full time job, he would have five 8 or 9 hour days per week. I thought I would call a typical day being 2 hours working out and 6 hours of study. Say in one day he sits and analyzes two games of offensive plays. So he spends 3 hours on each game watching and studying and coming to understand the offensive plays in that game. There are about 130 offensive plays (65 each team) in a game. It might go slower at first but that gives him about 3 minutes per play to study it.

 

This is not a heavy workload here we are just talking about 2 hours of fitness and then the rest of a regular workday sitting in an easy chair watching football plays.

So if a man did that 26 weeks per year for 5 years, he would have seen 130 plays per day Times 5 days per week Times 26 weeks Times 5 years = 84,500 plays.

The defenses are complicated but they are not that complicated that a man shouldn’t have a pretty good idea what is going on after having seen it Eighty Four Thousand times.

 

And that doesn’t even count all the time they spend learning and being taught for all the months they are with the team.

 

When I think about it like that, it doesn’t seem like a stupid question to wonder how in the world could somebody not understand how to read a defense after seeing 84,500 plays?? (not counting training camp and practice and all that).

 

I don’t think you would have to be a genius. Do you?

 

Next I think about Peyton Manning. Here is a guy who won a Superbowl when his body was failing him and his head was more or less held on to his neck by bolts. That guy could read a defense and he is known for doing his work and watching film. I hate to mention it, but Tom Brady is known for doing his work and watching film. So maybe it is not a coincidence and is a very important trait for a quarterback to treat his job like a full time job, like you and me have, and do his work every day.

 

Getting back to the Bills I hope they look for a player who has the physical ability, who is durable, and who can throw with accuracy. And to pick between the guys who qualify on those dimensions, by getting the guy who is already mature and responsible enough to just go to work every day like a regular Joe. He doesn’t have to be a Superman phenomenon. I think maybe he just needs to be a guy who gets up every weekday, brushes his teeth, eats breakfast and then goes to work.

 

I have some hope that McBean will be successful picking up a guy like that because that is the sort of player they have been very focused on. I hope McBean have been very diligent looking very closely at each of the guys to see who is the one who got his homework done and took care of his responsibilities. That way they will have accurate information to go on come draft day.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BadLandsMeanie]

1 hour ago, Jobot said:

Totally agree.

 

I was just having this conversation the other day.  The fact that there are only 32 of these positions in the world available for employment... how is every qb not great at this?

 

I guess D-coordinators are also in high demand... but listening to Tony Romo rattle off the defensive breakdowns pre-snap after being out of the league for a year.... it just makes you wonder how this is possible.

This. Much of the time, Romo knows ahead of time what the possibilities are an explains them to us. And then we watch the quarterback not understand it.

[Mat68]

Imo there are 2 types of Qbs.  Ultra competative workaholics.  Average athletic abilty but are obsessive about there preperations.  Like Brady, and Brees. The other are the super athletic sevants.  Just naturals.  They see the feild perfect, during meetings are told you cant throw a pass here.  And their answer is why?  Well the window is too small.  Game comes play is called and the qb makes the throw where they shouldnt and its a touchdown. Like Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Farve.  Either style works but you need one of them.  Its hard to find who is really the first group.  Every prospect is coached up for the process now.  Get a supremly talented guy and coach them up if they have the mental fortitude and confidence.  As complicated and people want to make football its not that crazy.  More often than not teams call the same plays each week and you can derive the coverage by the location of the saftey.

[BadLandsMeanie]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Meanie -

 

Short answer:  it simply isn't easy to do.  

 

For one thing, I've heard QBs say it takes four or five season ON THE FIELD before they really understood what the defense was doing.   So after a while all that off-the-field study your positing doesn't matter, it doesn't advance the learning of the QB.    You could study how to fly a plane for five years, but I'm not going up with you on your first solo flight.  

 

Learning to fly is an interesting comparison, because you CAN practice flying in a simulator.   There are no QB simulators, at least not yet.   Madden is on it's way to getting there, I suppose.   Some teams put cameras on the QBs head, put him in a scrimmage, then review the film afterward.   They can coach the guy about whether he's looking the right way, and looking fast enough.   But that's a long way from real experience.  

 

You have to train your brain to recognize and process information quickly, and the information is always different, always changing.   The pass rushers are coming from different places, depending on the defense and on who has missed his blocking assignment.   The defenders are playing zone, or man or a little of each, some are free lancing.    Oh, and the defense you're facing this week is different from the one you faced last week, and we know those week to week changes are important.   Players started complaining this season about how difficult it is to play on Thursday night because there's no time to prepare for the game. 

 

On top of all that, it's simply a matter of brains.   People don't all have the same level of computing power, and being an NFL QB requires some really high football IQ.   Most people can't do it. 

 

Oh, and anothr thing is the ability to operate under pressure.    Standing in the pocket is a highly pressurized environment, essentially standing in the middle of a battlefield while your comrades try to protect you the invading horde a couple of yards away.   It's very well know that many people behave and perform less well in a threatening environment.   Mistakes go way up under pressure like that.   That's why the military drills and drills and drills, to try to minimize mistakes under pressure.   But for the vast majority of military, they're drilling in something that is generally pretty simple and doesn't have nearly as many variables as an NFL QB faces.  

 

These guys have really speacialized, almost unique, skill sets.  

I don't think this is correct.   Kids now are working like crazy in high school, trying to learn this stuff.   There are plenty more guys with the dedication to the task that don't make it than there are guys that do.   Eli grew up in the same environment Peyton did.  Why isn't Eli as good?   

This is a great reply and I have thought exactly as you do.

 

But I will cut to the chase. Name a QB who is famous for his dedication to film study, that can't read a defense.

 

I have never heard it said that "Gee, he studies film for hours and hours 5 days a week all year round. But he just can't do it".

 

 

[John in Jax]

4 hours ago, The Wiz said:

The only thing worse than dumb people is smart people with no common sense.

There's no such thing as common sense. For ALL of us, EVERYTHING has to be learned, at some point in your life.

 

Do you think that a brain surgeon has the same "common sense" as a waitress at Denny's? Could they switch places, and for the non-technical stuff, know what to do for the job? Do you think the other employees in Dennys, watching a brain surgeon working his first shift (with no training beforehand), would be looking at him and saying "WTF is he doing!? That makes no sense?" Lol

[PolishDave]

10 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

This is a great reply and I have thought exactly as you do.

 

But I will cut to the chase. Name a QB who is famous for his dedication to film study, that can't read a defense.

 

I have never heard it said that "Gee, he studies film for hours and hours 5 days a week all year round. But he just can't do it".

 

 

EJ Manuel.

[Freddie's Dead]

The problem with this is that classroom prep is one thing, game time play is another.  The cutthroat nature of the NFL means that unless you're Andrew Luck, or a #1 pick, you will not get the time you need to learn and develop under game conditions.  Some QB's thrown in too early get so battered they're never the same (Timm Rosenbach, Trent Edwards), and others have the rug pulled from under them (Tebo, EJ).  Then the refrains begin, he never had it, he'll never learn.  Every now and then, you get a guy like Drew Brees, Rich Gannon, or Kurt Warner, who hits on success later in his career.  But the vast majority of QB's end up like Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer, Johnny Manziel, Jamarcus Russell, etc.  Bottom line, your brain has to be wired to see the D and make the correct throw in 2 seconds or less.  Good luck.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

36 minutes ago, mead107 said:

Sorry, to long. 

 

TLDR.  

 

   

[RevWarRifleman]

5 hours ago, Woodman19 said:

How can dumb people learn next to nothing after years in school?  Lack of effort/poor teachers or just too dumb.

Not being accountable. But that's just my opinion.

[Shaw66]

40 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

This is a great reply and I have thought exactly as you do.

 

But I will cut to the chase. Name a QB who is famous for his dedication to film study, that can't read a defense.

 

I have never heard it said that "Gee, he studies film for hours and hours 5 days a week all year round. But he just can't do it".

 

 

Who would say such a thing?   

 

"Coach, why is A starting over B?"

 

"Because B has studied for hours and hours and just doesn't get it."   

 

Nobody's going to make a public statement like that.   They just demote the guy.

 

Taylor is your case in point.   As you point out, they say he studies a LOT.   He's as serious about it as anyone would expect him to be.   He doesn't seem to get it.   He can make all the throws, he's mobile, and yet his pocket awareness isn't great and his decision making is suspect.     When he loses his job, the Bills aren't going to say "he studied hard but he couldn't do it."   They're going to say "Tyrod has been a great contributor to the organization and done some great things for us.   We just decided we needed to move in another direction."   You know that's what they'll say.  

 

As someone said, you can send me to medical as long as you want, but you aren't going to choose me to be your brain surgeon.   

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

That is just what I am thinking.

I bet they do it like you say. Which is to say, not much.

Until this morning actually, I believed in the special almost magic talent model. With the Mannings and Brady's being the chosen ones.

But now I am thinking more like if they watched enough, anybody could read a defense. I think I could if I had five years. They just don't do it.

 

I was going to respond and then it got involved and then...but I'll try now.  Of course there are young QB who are great athletes but don't want to sit still and put in the work in the film room.  Johnny Football was the Extreme Poster Child fir this guy.  But let's hypothesize that our QB is a known film junky.  Reportedly our TT used to have to be chased out of the family's garage where he would be found breaking down film on VCR tapes instead of doing his homework or sleeping.

 

The key point to understand is that fundamentally, reading the D from film, maybe Coach's Film - is a fundamentally different process than learning to read the D in 1-2 seconds from field level behind the center's butt.  

 

But (see what I did there?) that's not even what the QB has to do.  He has to read the D in the context of the called play, the presnap read and adjustments, and then correctly interpret where that means he should go with the ball in that offense for that play.

 

It's sort of the difference between an algebra student methodically multiplying and subtracting and dividing and getting the correct answer and the "good at math" kid who doesn't think about the steps, he just tells you "the answer is 5" because the steps are accelerated and automatic to him.  Or the musician who spends hours practicing slowly, but still makes the same mistakes at tempo vs. the kid who can successfully speed things up.

 

The former can help with the latter, but it doesn't necessarily translate.   It may require a different sort of practice.  Like having a GoPro on the QB's helmet and filming from there, or flashing film of the "D" up for shorter and shorter times with the goal of reading it in 2 seconds. It also helps to ensure that QB get the "big picture" of things that matter from play to play.  (Romo was clearly there).  Just like math or music teachers, I'm betting coaches vary greatly in their ability to convey the "big picture" rather than the methodical step by step.  I mean, the most successful QB typically don't retire and become coaches.  They retire and play golf, or shill fake health programs for their business partner (see what I did there?) or something.  The guys who coach are often the ones who never progressed beyond the methodical multiple-subtract-divide analogy.

 

 I think that's why you get some very smart guys who reportedly work very hard at film and can break it down to perfection (like Ryan Fitzpatrick) but who make dumb calls all the time, and not just because his arm betrays him.  Reportedly, Fitz would go on his pre-snap read rather than read the D again and process it post-snap, which is why D's figured out he could be fooled and he became "Pickspatrick".

 

Of course, hard work at film helps anyone, which gets to the next point. 

1. If the offense changes from year to year, what's the QB supposed to study in that off-season?  He can get some basic stuff - Tampa 2 vs cover 3?  But he can't integrate it with the correct action in an offense that is gonna be developed by an OC who hasn't been hired yet.  That's why changing OCs is a big setback for a young QB
2. The CBA limiting offseason coaching contact was a poison pill for QB development.  Reportedly, Mike McCarthy and others used to hold extensive training for QB in the off season, which is one reason Aaron Rodgers became Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees became Drew Brees and the modern crop of young QB is struggling.

3. I suspect there's a business opportunity if someone could figure out the best ways to teach the kind of mental processing a young QB needs to perform pre and post snap to succeed in the NFL 

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, John in Jax said:

There's no such thing as common sense. For ALL of us, EVERYTHING has to be learned, at some point in your life.

 

Do you think that a brain surgeon has the same "common sense" as a waitress at Denny's? Could they switch places, and for the non-technical stuff, know what to do for the job? Do you think the other employees in Dennys, watching a brain surgeon working his first shift (with no training beforehand), would be looking at him and saying "WTF is he doing!? That makes no sense?" Lol

You're talking about the exact opposite of common sense. 

 

No I don't expect a brain surgeon to be able to waitress at denny's and vice versa but I do expect a person that is well know for being intelligent to be able to figure out how to turn on a  light without having to think about it.

 

An example of common sense that actually evades people:

 

It's satire but it still applies.

Edited January 11, 2018 by The Wiz

[cd1]

17 hours ago, 2003Contenders said:

There are different levels/types of intelligence.

 

A scientist or policy-maker may have a high IQ but may need time to analyze information at hand before moving forward. Meanwhile, with lives at stake, a surgeon has to be able to make good decisions quickly. The same is true of police officers, firemen, etc.

 

Tyrod has shown repeatedly that he struggles to make proper decisions quickly. That does not mean that he is "dumb" -- just that the way in which his brain is wired, he is more calculating in his decision-making process than is required to be a successful QB at the NFL level.

 

No one doubts Ryan Fitzpatrick's IQ -- but he often made poor decisions on the fly. At least he was usually quick in making those decisions (good or bad).

 

After all, Jim Kelly wasn't the sharpest tool in the shed, but he was great at reading a defense and making quick (and usually "intelligent") decisions.

 

THIS

 

I can add a long string of numbers BUT I usually need pencil and paper (time). There are others that just look at the numbers and can add them quickly in their head.

 

THAT is how I look at the difference between QBs reading the defense. 

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

A lot of people know what to do but can't apply it to real situations. How many people do you know that just sucked at tests in school, even though they prepared like crazy.

[Gugny]

18 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

That and dumb people who are arrogant because they think they're very intelligent.

 

To quote the Loaf of Meat ... you took the words right out of my mouth.

 

Stupidity + Arrogance is the worst combination.

[BadLandsMeanie]

14 hours ago, mead107 said:

Sorry, to long. 

 

Har dee harr harr

[Irv]

19 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Coming from a guy who said Colton Schmidt is the reason we lost in Jax.

 

 

Quit trolling me bro'.  You man-love for me is very disturbing. 

[Royale with Cheese]

6 minutes ago, Badthingsman said:

 

Quit trolling me bro'.  You man-love for me is very disturbing. 

 

It's not trolling...nothing I'm saying is false.  You literally and more than one time said Colton Schmidt is a main reason why we lost.

[Irv]

27 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

It's not trolling...nothing I'm saying is false.  You literally and more than one time said Colton Schmidt is a main reason why we lost.

 

No - I won't go on a date with you.

[Mr. WEO]

20 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

 

 

 

Getting back to the Bills I hope they look for a player who has the physical ability, who is durable, and who can throw with accuracy. And to pick between the guys who qualify on those dimensions, by getting the guy who is already mature and responsible enough to just go to work every day like a regular Joe. He doesn’t have to be a Superman phenomenon. I think maybe he just needs to be a guy who gets up every weekday, brushes his teeth, eats breakfast and then goes to work.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So are you saying that it's simply a fact that TT didn't put in the time doing film study?  He didn't work as hard as even a regular Joe?

[BadLandsMeanie]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

So are you saying that it's simply a fact that TT didn't put in the time doing film study?  He didn't work as hard as even a regular Joe?

Well, you can read everything I wrote, and see that I did not say that.

I suppose one could "read into" what I said though. So I will clarify.

 

Mostly I wasn't even focused on Tyrod. I was more thinking of the future and being anxious that we will get another guy who can't get over the hump and get good at reading and reacting to a defensive coverage.

 

I do wonder how some QB's get "famous" for watching film all the time. And why a guy like Peyton Manning was said to be a "fanatic" just because he watched film all the time. I think it is like being a plumber who gets famous because he does plumbing all the time. I think that is just what they all should be doing. But  don't think they do because if they did, it wouldn't get so much attention when somebody does it.

 

On Tyrod, if I were him and I watched 6 hours of film a day 5 days a week during my off time, I certainly would let people know that. It isn't my fault that I don't know if he does or does not.

 

 

One thing that leads me to believe the he does not is this: There was an article by Kimberly Martin  in which Tyrod  compared himself to to guys like Rodgers and Carr who are also pretty mobile.

 

“They claim that we’re (himself and Cam Newton) not that accurate from the pocket. I’m not sure why,” Taylor says, before adding of Rodgers and Carr: “Even though they’re ‘mobile’ guys, they don’t necessarily take on the same criticism as others. It probably is unfair.”

 

So if you have a guy watching 5 years of film, 84,000 plays, who doesn't see the reason that those two are considered to be good pocket passers while he is not, what does that tell you?

 

It told me that at the very least, he doesn't understand the job. And personally I can't understand how a man could be watching lots of film and NOT see the things that they were doing better than he was.

 

Edited January 11, 2018 by BadLandsMeanie

[Jauronimo]

There are 5 - 8 QBs in the world that are any f#@$ing good at the position.  And you want to know why they all can't be elite with enough experience???

[BadLandsMeanie]

8 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

There are 5 - 8 QBs in the world that are any f#@$ing good at the position.  And you want to know why they all can't be elite with enough experience???

You have an impressive grasp of the obvious.

 

I didn't say it that way but yes, I am wondering if it is really true that only 5-8 people on the planet, can play the position competently.

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

8 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

You have an impressive grasp of the obvious.

 

I didn't say it that way but yes, I am wondering if it is really true that only 5-8 people on the planet, can play the position competently.

I'd say that number is about right for players that can play well, consistently, for more than a couple years.

[Jauronimo]

12 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

You have an impressive grasp of the obvious.

 

I didn't say it that way but yes, I am wondering if it is really true that only 5-8 people on the planet, can play the position competently.

 

If its obvious then why did you ask in the first place and why did you make Proust look like the Dude in terms of brevity in the process of asking the obvious?

 

All the empirical evidence points to yes. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Well, you can read everything I wrote, and see that I did not say that.

I suppose one could "read into" what I said though. So I will clarify.

 

Mostly I wasn't even focused on Tyrod. I was more thinking of the future and being anxious that we will get another guy who can't get over the hump and get good at reading and reacting to a defensive coverage.

 

I do wonder how some QB's get "famous" for watching film all the time. And why a guy like Peyton Manning was said to be a "fanatic" just because he watched film all the time. I think it is like being a plumber who gets famous because he does plumbing all the time. I think that is just what they all should be doing. But  don't think they do because if they did, it wouldn't get so much attention when somebody does it.

 

On Tyrod, if I were him and I watched 6 hours of film a day 5 days a week during my off time, I certainly would let people know that. It isn't my fault that I don't know if he does or does not.

 

 

One thing that leads me to believe the he does not is this: There was an article by Kimberly Martin  in which Tyrod  compared himself to to guys like Rodgers and Carr who are also pretty mobile.

 

“They claim that we’re (himself and Cam Newton) not that accurate from the pocket. I’m not sure why,” Taylor says, before adding of Rodgers and Carr: “Even though they’re ‘mobile’ guys, they don’t necessarily take on the same criticism as others. It probably is unfair.”

 

So if you have a guy watching 5 years of film, 84,000 plays, who doesn't see the reason that those two are considered to be good pocket passers while he is not, what does that tell you?

 

It told me that at the very least, he doesn't understand the job. And personally I can't understand how a man could be watching lots of film and NOT see the things that they were doing better than he was.

 

 

You said it didn't take a genius, just a regular Joe who watches tons of film.  So it TT hasn't learned how to read an defense, you have to conclude he didn't put in the time watching the film.

 

Did I get something wrong?  This is what you are saying.  Or are you saying he did watch all that film, just any regular Joe would.....but he was just too dumb to learn to read defenses?  Which is it?

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

You have an impressive grasp of the obvious.

 

I didn't say it that way but yes, I am wondering if it is really true that only 5-8 people on the planet, can play the position competently.

 

I don't think the number is that low, but I think the concept is correct. 

 

Why don't I think the number is that low?   Tom Brady.    He's the luckiest athlete in the world.    He had less than the perfect physical skill set - no serious size, mediocre arm, no foot speed.   But he had brains, the right temperament, and he ended up with exactly the right coach for him.  They were a perfect match.   Anyplace, and he might have been a journeyman QB for 10 years, bouncing around the league, having a couple of good seasons.   Instead, he grew with Belichick, he took in everything Belichick had to teach him, he work his butt off, and he became Tom Brady.   

 

Favre too.   Wasn't the right fit in Atlanta, but in GB they nurtured him the right way, gave him some rope, and voila, HOF!

 

So there probably are a few guys who don't make it because they just didn't land in the right place at the right time.   Who are they?   I don't know, because they didn't land in the right place at the right time and therefore didn't blossom.   A guy like Blaine Gabbert, maybe.  Give him a couple of years behind Peyton with a good coach, maybe.  Heck, maybe Andy Dalton is two notches better playing for Andy Reed.   Even EJ, in the right circumstances.  Maybe Flacco.    

 

So I'd guess if there are 5-8 who are doing it, there may be as many as a half dozen more who are in the league but for whom the pieces didn't come together.   

 

And in any case, it's more than 5-8 IN THE WORLD.    There are guys in MLB and the NBA and playing soccer at elite levels with the combination of natural abilities that would have made them excellent QBs, if their childhood focus had been football instead of some other sport.  Take a guy like Chris Paul, watch the intelligence he plays with, the recognition and decisiveness.   He could be a QB.   I'm sure MLB has some.   Derek Jeter, for example.  

 

These people are elite.   That means there aren't many of them.   If your thesis were true, given how many guys want to play in the NFL, the league would be full of them.   The simple fact that there aren't a lot of these guys proves your thesis wrong.   They're elite, they stand alone for a reason, and the reason is that they have a unique combination of natural abilities most don't have, they've worked hard, they were this sport and they got the right opportunities.   

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

On 1/10/2018 at 2:29 PM, ShadyBillsFan said:

how about a 7 year vet? 

 

scouting report

• hard working kid that has improved every year, but it is unclear if he can play quarterback at the next level. He has a quick release and a strong arm, but he is somewhat erratic as a passer. 
• also does not show the consistent sound decision making to be an efficient quarterback
• greatest asset is his athleticism and he should be able to contribute immediately as a running back, receiver or return man.
• A terrific senior season, where he completed nearly 60% of his passes

 

STRENGTHS

• Has excellent mobility and continually evades the rush while keeping his eyes downfield. Has above average arm strength and flashes the ability to fit the ball into tight windows on short to intermediate routes. Team leader and fierce 

WEAKNESSES

• Does not possess adequate height and too many of his passes are knocked down at the line. Sloppy footwork prevents him from stepping into throws making him an erratic passer. Locks onto receivers and often telegraphs his throws. Struggles breaking down coverage and makes too many ill-advised throws.

 

Is this a scouting report of JaMarcus Russell?

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 1/10/2018 at 2:53 PM, BadLandsMeanie said:

Hello,

This will be long and maybe boring but hopefully not stupid.

 

This will be about reading defenses and how the Bills might try to predict who a good QB will be which is apparently very hard.

I woke up this morning with the thought in my head, “How can a veteran QB not know how to read a defense?” I woke up thinking about football and the Bills QB search and the draft and so on, because there is something wrong with me. I was probably dreaming about it too (because let’s be honest, there must be something wrong with me).

 

Now everybody knows including me how hard it is for QB to learn to read defenses quickly because all you have to do is watch the games and maybe half of the starters can’t do it. And I bought a copy of an older NFL playbook off ebay one time and they are no picnic to understand. I never did get so I understood it fully.

So my thinking has always been that it takes a special talent to be able to do that so fast. I watched the game film of the San Diego game and it was plain that Phillip Rivers could read the defense and what the coverages were going to be about one second after the ball was snapped. After one second everyone had made their moves and he (and I with the benefit of rewind and slow motion) could see what the defensive pass coverage was going to be. And Philip Rivers killed us with it.

 

But for some reason this morning I was thinking how they could not know, and my line of thought then went along like this.

 

Figure if a guy treats the NFL like he has or had a full time job like you and me. The team pretty much owns them from August to January. So that is 5 months and figure in some weeks of vacation I will call it 6 months of being with the team full and vacation time.

 

If a man treats the other 6 months as a full time job, he would have five 8 or 9 hour days per week. I thought I would call a typical day being 2 hours working out and 6 hours of study. Say in one day he sits and analyzes two games of offensive plays. So he spends 3 hours on each game watching and studying and coming to understand the offensive plays in that game. There are about 130 offensive plays (65 each team) in a game. It might go slower at first but that gives him about 3 minutes per play to study it.

 

This is not a heavy workload here we are just talking about 2 hours of fitness and then the rest of a regular workday sitting in an easy chair watching football plays.

So if a man did that 26 weeks per year for 5 years, he would have seen 130 plays per day Times 5 days per week Times 26 weeks Times 5 years = 84,500 plays.

The defenses are complicated but they are not that complicated that a man shouldn’t have a pretty good idea what is going on after having seen it Eighty Four Thousand times.

 

And that doesn’t even count all the time they spend learning and being taught for all the months they are with the team.

 

When I think about it like that, it doesn’t seem like a stupid question to wonder how in the world could somebody not understand how to read a defense after seeing 84,500 plays?? (not counting training camp and practice and all that).

 

I don’t think you would have to be a genius. Do you?

 

Next I think about Peyton Manning. Here is a guy who won a Superbowl when his body was failing him and his head was more or less held on to his neck by bolts. That guy could read a defense and he is known for doing his work and watching film. I hate to mention it, but Tom Brady is known for doing his work and watching film. So maybe it is not a coincidence and is a very important trait for a quarterback to treat his job like a full time job, like you and me have, and do his work every day.

 

Getting back to the Bills I hope they look for a player who has the physical ability, who is durable, and who can throw with accuracy. And to pick between the guys who qualify on those dimensions, by getting the guy who is already mature and responsible enough to just go to work every day like a regular Joe. He doesn’t have to be a Superman phenomenon. I think maybe he just needs to be a guy who gets up every weekday, brushes his teeth, eats breakfast and then goes to work.

 

I have some hope that McBean will be successful picking up a guy like that because that is the sort of player they have been very focused on. I hope McBean have been very diligent looking very closely at each of the guys to see who is the one who got his homework done and took care of his responsibilities. That way they will have accurate information to go on come draft day.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think the problem is reading the defense you’re playing, in the game, real time,  in less than a second. That’s a unique skill/trait/ability.

 

I think much of it has to do with how you think and how quickly you process 3 dimensional spatial information. 

[BadLandsMeanie]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

You said it didn't take a genius, just a regular Joe who watches tons of film.  So it TT hasn't learned how to read an defense, you have to conclude he didn't put in the time watching the film.

 

Did I get something wrong?  This is what you are saying.  Or are you saying he did watch all that film, just any regular Joe would.....but he was just too dumb to learn to read defenses?  Which is it?

I think I mentioned that my anxiety isn't about Tyrod. It is about the next guy. Another guy we have to wait 2 or 3 years to see if he will become good.

I don't think JP Losman studied film. 

 

So I don't want the BUffalo Bills to have anything to do with a guy who is not student of the game. I don't care who he is, or how athletic he is, I don't want him. I am sick of guys who can't do the mental part of the game.

 

As for Tyrod, I don't know if he studied film or not. But let me ask you, what did it look like?? Did he look like he has been watching film over an over an studying defenses for the last 7 years? I sure as fork didn't look like it to me. 

 

Combine that with the things he said about not seeing the different between himself and Rodgers, I don't think you would call it stupidity, but something isn't right there.

 

So, if I could bet somebody a thousand dollars if Tyrod Taylor has spent 6 hours a day watching film for 26 weeks each year for the last 7 years, I would take the bet. I would say no way. But I can't know for sure.

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

21 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

I think I mentioned that my anxiety isn't about Tyrod. It is about the next guy. Another guy we have to wait 2 or 3 years to see if he will become good.

I don't think JP Losman studied film. 

 

So I don't want the BUffalo Bills to have anything to do with a guy who is not student of the game. I don't care who he is, or how athletic he is, I don't want him. I am sick of guys who can't do the mental part of the game.

 

As for Tyrod, I don't know if he studied film or not. But let me ask you, what did it look like?? Did he look like he has been watching film over an over an studying defenses for the last 7 years? I sure as fork didn't look like it to me. 

 

Combine that with the things he said about not seeing the different between himself and Rodgers, I don't think you would call it stupidity, but something isn't right there.

 

So, if I could bet somebody a thousand dollars if Tyrod Taylor has spent 6 hours a day watching film for 26 weeks each year for the last 7 years, I would take the bet. I would say no way. But I can't know for sure.

 

 

 

If only a handful of QBs can learn to read defense so well by watching film (by your estimate), why do you think an average Joe who comes to work every day will be one of those few QBs?

[BadLandsMeanie]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't think the number is that low, but I think the concept is correct. 

 

Why don't I think the number is that low?   Tom Brady.    He's the luckiest athlete in the world.    He had less than the perfect physical skill set - no serious size, mediocre arm, no foot speed.   But he had brains, the right temperament, and he ended up with exactly the right coach for him.  They were a perfect match.   Anyplace, and he might have been a journeyman QB for 10 years, bouncing around the league, having a couple of good seasons.   Instead, he grew with Belichick, he took in everything Belichick had to teach him, he work his butt off, and he became Tom Brady.   

 

Favre too.   Wasn't the right fit in Atlanta, but in GB they nurtured him the right way, gave him some rope, and voila, HOF!

 

So there probably are a few guys who don't make it because they just didn't land in the right place at the right time.   Who are they?   I don't know, because they didn't land in the right place at the right time and therefore didn't blossom.   A guy like Blaine Gabbert, maybe.  Give him a couple of years behind Peyton with a good coach, maybe.  Heck, maybe Andy Dalton is two notches better playing for Andy Reed.   Even EJ, in the right circumstances.  Maybe Flacco.    

 

So I'd guess if there are 5-8 who are doing it, there may be as many as a half dozen more who are in the league but for whom the pieces didn't come together.   

 

And in any case, it's more than 5-8 IN THE WORLD.    There are guys in MLB and the NBA and playing soccer at elite levels with the combination of natural abilities that would have made them excellent QBs, if their childhood focus had been football instead of some other sport.  Take a guy like Chris Paul, watch the intelligence he plays with, the recognition and decisiveness.   He could be a QB.   I'm sure MLB has some.   Derek Jeter, for example.  

 

These people are elite.   That means there aren't many of them.   If your thesis were true, given how many guys want to play in the NFL, the league would be full of them.   The simple fact that there aren't a lot of these guys proves your thesis wrong.   They're elite, they stand alone for a reason, and the reason is that they have a unique combination of natural abilities most don't have, they've worked hard, they were this sport and they got the right opportunities.   

 

12 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

I think the problem is reading the defense you’re playing, in the game, real time,  in less than a second. That’s a unique skill/trait/ability.

 

I think much of it has to do with how you think and how quickly you process 3 dimensional spatial information. 

 

 

I will try to reply here to everybody though I have only quoted two. 

 

I don't know the answer. I think it is a reasonable question though. 

 

We don't like Tom Brady but I am put to mind of something he said quite recently. He said "If you are going to compete against me, you are going to have to give up your life to do it". And he was talking mainly about how much studying he does and how much film he watches.

 

He was exaggerating a bit I think because he does have a wife and family. But I think he means give up his life like a young doctor or businessperson, or lawyer. or anyone who puts in a lot of extra time at their job gives up a good slice of their life to do that.

 

I do think somebody has to have an ability to process all that information in a second. But I also think somebody who is extremely well prepared has a very good idea what the possibilities are and can narrow them down, before the ball is snapped.

 

I also think the league has created this circumstance by changing the rules to heavily emphasize the passing game to make the games more exciting for the fans. 

 

I think that has backfired to some extent because now only a few teams have a realistic chance at competing because so few teams have QBs who can run the offenses. And teams are very bad at predicting who warrants the investment in time and training to become that sort of QB.

 

I have thought of a test of my hypothesis. If they had offensive coordinators play in scrimmages to see if they can run their own offense. 

Obviously you cant hit them or even expect that they can make the throws.

 

But if the coordinators could read the defenses and pick out the open man, that would go a long way towards supporting the idea that watching film and studying and truly understanding the game, is a very bog part of being able to think fast enough to get the ball going where it should go.

 

And if they were unable to do it, then it would supports the idea that it takes a very special mental ability to do it.

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

3 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

 

 

 

I will try to reply here to everybody though I have only quoted two. 

 

I don't know the answer. I think it is a reasonable question though. 

 

We don't like Tom Brady but I am put to mind of something he said quite recently. He said "If you are going to compete against me, you are going to have to give up your life to do it". And he was talking mainly about how much studying he does and how much film he watches.

 

He was exaggerating a bit I think because he does have a wife and family. But I think he means give up his life like a young doctor or businessperson, or lawyer. or anyone who puts in a lot of extra time at their job gives up a good slice of their life to do that.

 

I do think somebody has to have an ability to process all that information in a second. But I also think somebody who is extremely well prepared has a very good idea what the possibilities are and can narrow them down, before the ball is snapped.

 

I also think the league has created this circumstance by changing the rules to heavily emphasize the passing game to make the games more exciting for the fans. 

 

I think that has backfired to some extent because now only a few teams have a realistic chance at competing because so few teams have QBs who can run the offenses. And teams are very bad at predicting who warrants the investment in time and training to become that sort of QB.

 

I have thought of a test of my hypothesis. If they had offensive coordinators play in scrimmages to see if they can run their own offense. 

Obviously you cant hit them or even expect that they can make the throws.

 

But if the coordinators could read the defenses and pick out the open man, that would go a long way towards supporting the idea that watching film and studying and truly understanding the game, is a very bog part of being able to think fast enough to get the ball going where it should go.

 

And if they were unable to do it, then it would supports the idea that it takes a very special mental ability to do it.

 

 

 

You have already said an average Joe can master this with enough film study.  If this was true, more than 5-8 guys would be as successful.

[GoBills808]

11 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

You have already said an average Joe can master this with enough film study.  If this was true, more than 5-8 guys would be as successful.

I think he's more right than a lot of people might want to admit. There are countless examples of skills and talents that average people can become proficient (and even excel) in with enormous expenditures of time and energy...it's just that most people don't have the steel for it.