SaviorPeterman Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 (edited) I'll preface this by saying I still don't believe the Bills are getting to the playoffs this year even if they win every game but the Pats and finish 9-7. Anything is possible but I still think terrible losses to teams like the Bengals and Jets are what ultimately will haunt this team, not the Chargers game contrary to popular belief because we weren't beating that team with TT as QB either. But if you believe 9-7 gets them in forget about the Ravens, they are winning out and going 10-6. This is a very good team that probably should have won in Pitt last night. However the team to focus on now is the Titans who should have been blown out by the Cardinals yesterday in a loss. And as of right now Vegas has the 3-10 49ers as home favorites against the Titans next week which is very reasonable given their play the last few weeks under Jimmy Garropolo. After next week the Titans finish at home against the Rams and Jags, two more games they can easily lose and probably split those games at best. How ironic would it be if the Titans lose out or lose to the Bills head to head and that's how the Bills get into the Playoffs snapping a 17 year drought in which their last playoff appearance was against the same Titans team? Edited December 11, 2017 by SaviorPeterman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicken Boo Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Not too much concerned about other teams. The Bills need to win! That's it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 LAC needs to beat KC next week and win their division too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Absolutely, if they lose 2 of the final three then things get more realistic/possible. Gotta get two against the phish though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Titans last play yesterday was a pass to their own CB Adoree Jackson that they never practiced instead sent him in and told him what route to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Like A Mofo Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Chargers need to win AFC West and the Titans losing 2 of 3? Refreshing that the playoff scenarios this year are at least reasonable and won't take an act of God to accomplish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SF Bills Fan Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 There are several scenarios that lead to the playoffs, but if we beat Dolphins twice, Tennessee loses 2 of 3 (very real possibility) and the Chargers beat KC this weekend (not easy because it is in KC) and we would likely get in. We just need to focus on those Dolphins games. We have gotten tripped up on those types of games in the past. Would be great to have a win and in scenario last week against the Dolphins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Like A Mofo said: Chargers need to win AFC West and the Titans losing 2 of 3? Refreshing that the playoff scenarios this year are at least reasonable and won't take an act of God to accomplish Looking Rosen's post, it's apparently more complicated as the rules are different when there's a 3-way tie. At least the Bills are still playing a meaningful game this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWATeam Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 I'm figuring that the Dolphins win out and make the playoffs at 9-7. Advanced metrics pointing to the phins running the table loom LARGE. Gase is playing 4-D chess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan130 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Good points. Good to focus on both teams of course though. Ravens always seem to play down to their opponents. I can see them losing a game which would put them at 9-7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 45 minutes ago, TPS said: LAC needs to beat KC next week and win their division too. Not just for playoff hopes but that would make a dramatic difference in where our draft pick ends up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 At this point I could care less what other teams do......we need to worry about our own back yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zman44 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 52 minutes ago, TPS said: LAC needs to beat KC next week and win their division too. I don't think that is in our best interest. It is more likely than not that it will come down to more than 2 teams at 9-7 and if that is the case the bills actually own the tie breaker over everyone except KC(their SOV is the best by far). With a Chiefs win, they just need to stay at least tied with the chargers to win the division, most likely scenario since they have the easiest remaining schedule. The chargers can win out besides that KC game and the Bills would still beat them on conference record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaviorPeterman Posted December 11, 2017 Author Share Posted December 11, 2017 22 minutes ago, billsfan11 said: Good points. Good to focus on both teams of course though. Ravens always seem to play down to their opponents. I can see them losing a game which would put them at 9-7 If the Ravens did blow a game down the stretch it will likely be this week at Cleveland who has been playing very well and eager to avoid the dreaded 0-16 record. Could see it happening especially since it's another division game and Baltimore might not be all there mentally after blowing a big lead and giving up 500 passing yards against the Steelers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 16 minutes ago, SF Bills Fan said: There are several scenarios that lead to the playoffs, but if we beat Dolphins twice, Tennessee loses 2 of 3 (very real possibility) and the Chargers beat KC this weekend (not easy because it is in KC) and we would likely get in. We just need to focus on those Dolphins games. We have gotten tripped up on those types of games in the past. Would be great to have a win and in scenario last week against the Dolphins. KC can win that game and we are still fine per the playoff machine. What is interesting. If we lose to the Phins in week 17, and the Raiders beat the Chargers, the Raiders are in. They would have to beat out a flawed Dallas team, Philly without their starter, then division rivals to do that. 1 minute ago, zman44 said: I don't think that is in our best interest. It is more likely than not that it will come down to more than 2 teams at 9-7 and if that is the case the bills actually own the tie breaker over everyone except KC(their SOV is the best by far). With a Chiefs win, they just need to stay at least tied with the chargers to win the division, most likely scenario since they have the easiest remaining schedule. The chargers can win out besides that KC game and the Bills would still beat them on conference record. This! There are a ton of different options. More like a choose your own ending book. There are no nail in the coffin games next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zman44 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, SaviorPeterman said: If the Ravens did blow a game down the stretch it will likely be this week at Cleveland who has been playing very well and eager to avoid the dreaded 0-16 record. Could see it happening especially since it's another division game and Baltimore might not be all there mentally after blowing a big lead and giving up 500 passing yards against the Steelers. A Ravens loss to the Browns actually wouldn't help the Bills much at all. In order for the Bills to hold the tiebreaker over the Ravens they need their loss to come against a common opponent, Colts or Bengals. A Browns loss bringing them to 9-7 gives them the edge over the Bills, 5-0 to 4-1 in common opponent games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaviorPeterman Posted December 11, 2017 Author Share Posted December 11, 2017 56 minutes ago, TPS said: LAC needs to beat KC next week and win their division too. I will be shocked if the Chargers don't win this game given how they are firing on all cylinders right now and Rivers might be playing the best ball of his entire career. But KC likely has a little confidence back after snapping a long losing streak and beating another bad team in the Raiders yesterday. Realistically though this could be the most important game of the season for the Bills given the tie breaker situation and against the AFC West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Freddy Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, zman44 said: A Ravens loss to the Browns actually wouldn't help the Bills much at all. In order for the Bills to hold the tiebreaker over the Ravens they need their loss to come against a common opponent, Colts or Bengals. A Browns loss bringing them to 9-7 gives them the edge over the Bills, 5-0 to 4-1 in common opponent games. Thanks for explaining this. I noticed on the NYT playoff simulator that our odds actually IMPROVE if the Ravens beat the Browns next week. I'm still not sure why it would actually help us if the Ravens beat the Browns, but this explains why a Browns win doesn't do much for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick Duffy Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 hour ago, Chicken Boo said: Not too much concerned about other teams. The Bills need to win! That's it. Agree. This has to happen first and foremost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaviorPeterman Posted December 11, 2017 Author Share Posted December 11, 2017 17 minutes ago, zman44 said: A Ravens loss to the Browns actually wouldn't help the Bills much at all. In order for the Bills to hold the tiebreaker over the Ravens they need their loss to come against a common opponent, Colts or Bengals. A Browns loss bringing them to 9-7 gives them the edge over the Bills, 5-0 to 4-1 in common opponent games. It would help in terms of them continuing to lose games, but yes the crux of your argument is why we need to focus on the Titans finishing 9-7 or 8-8. And if Mariota keeps playing like Tyrod Taylor very likely they could lose out given the schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 I love the 9-7 playoff calculation time of year. It comes every year around this time!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingRex Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 I agree with the thread author that the Bills will not likely make the playoffs this year. However, I disagree with the implication he seems to be making that the reason they will fail to make the playoffs was (or even worse is) the decision to go with TT as the starting QB rather than with Peterman. Does any rational person with even trace knowledge of the NFL seriously think that any athlete with consensus agreement among the professional scouts is a 5th round draftee talent is in anyway a reasonable bet to lead his team to the playoffs. No! I like Peterman's play. I think with proper development and exposure to the game (and a little dumb luck) he MIGHT become a franchise QB. However, the BEST development approach to use to help Peterman become all he can be as a player is to plant his butt firmly on the bench and focus on training his mind to understand the game developing in front of him. Should he play? Sure, but if you are truly interested in developing him to be the Bills starting QB then the hope should be that Tyrod never gets hurt and that Peterman gets some useful game experience mostly in mop-up time. I think the biggest mistake McDermott has made this year in panicking and benching an unproductive TT and announcing this to the world early in the week to give opposing HC and DCs the maximum chance to prepare for the youngster NP and rape this talented rookie for 5 INTs. From Todd Collins to JP Losman etcthe Bills (and some desperate and loud fans) have a habit of rushing young QBs into a starting role before they are ready. Anointing and demanding this 5th round talent to start and lead this team as a rookie is simply bad training technique and a disservice to not only Peterman but the Bills and their fans! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 if we want to make the playoffs, we have to worry about what other teams are doing. This team isn’t making the playoffs without help. Winning out is extremely doubtful. We aren’t getting a top 10 pick, gotta focus on winning and making the playoffs. It’s been too long. I’ll definitely be following the titans, ravens and how the afc West pans out. We really want chargers to win that division. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 But, but Mr Savior... How can they do it if, as you say Miami will beat Buffalo at least once? I can't count the number of time I say you quoted saying the Fins are the better team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utah John Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 The one thing I can confidently predict is that there will a surprise. Some team that needs to win to help their playoff chances will lose to a spoiler. It always happens. I don't know which team will be the one that loses a game they should win on paper, but if you just look at records you'll miss the possibilities. The Jets crush the Chiefs, and then get shut out by Denver, which had lost 8 straight. Go figure. The Packers, desperately needing to win, almost lost to the winless Browns. Go figure. (I know the bottom line is that a team is as good as its record shows, but the Browns have some play makers and will be a lot better next year.) The Bills need to go 2-1 over the remaining games. Even if they beat the fish here and then lose to the Pats, and then go to Miami knowing a win would get them into the playoffs (could happen under various scenarios) they could still lose that last game. Just ask Drew Bledsoe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utah John Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 (edited) OK, here's a scenario no one's mentioned. This could actually happen. Tonight, the Pats overlook Miami. It's a trap game, with the Pats looking ahead to the Steelers. Miami could win. The game is in Miami, no Gronk. It's possible. Then the Pats have a short week to prepare for their matchup with the Steelers, in Pittsburgh, a game they could certainly lose. Very seriously, the Pats could go from 10-2 now to 10-4, while the Bills beat Miami coming off a short week, in Buffalo. I think we need TT or NP healthy for this to work. That makes the Bills 8-6. The Bills are one Tom Brady injury away from being able to go into Foxboro and beat the Pats. (C'mon, Suh, what are you getting paid for??) That would make NE 10-5 and the Bills 9-6. Final week: Pats play the Jets in Foxboro, the Bills play the fish in fishlandia. If Brady is still hurt, the division is ours for the taking. 10-6 for both teams. Bills 4-2 in the division, NE 3-3 in the division. If Brady is hurt, we need the breaks to go our way. If Brady isn't hurt, it will take a miracle. But Al Michaels asked us if we believe in miracles (ok, that was in 1980) so why can't this happen too. Edited December 11, 2017 by Utah John punctuation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 4 hours ago, SaviorPeterman said: I'll preface this by saying I still don't believe the Bills are getting to the playoffs this year even if they win every game but the Pats and finish 9-7. Anything is possible but I still think terrible losses to teams like the Bengals and Jets are what ultimately will haunt this team, not the Chargers game contrary to popular belief because we weren't beating that team with TT as QB either. But if you believe 9-7 gets them in forget about the Ravens, they are winning out and going 10-6. This is a very good team that probably should have won in Pitt last night. However the team to focus on now is the Titans who should have been blown out by the Cardinals yesterday in a loss. And as of right now Vegas has the 3-10 49ers as home favorites against the Titans next week which is very reasonable given their play the last few weeks under Jimmy Garropolo. After next week the Titans finish at home against the Rams and Jags, two more games they can easily lose and probably split those games at best. How ironic would it be if the Titans lose out or lose to the Bills head to head and that's how the Bills get into the Playoffs snapping a 17 year drought in which their last playoff appearance was against the same Titans team? The Ravens are not a very good team. They are mediocre and are up and down like a lot of teams are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 (edited) forget-about-the-ravens-need-to-focus-on-the-titans I have the Titans losing out and the Bills still not making the WC with a sweep of Miami and a loss to NE. Why couldn't NE be week 17!!! Darn you schedule makers! Lose to the 49ers Lose to the Rams Lose to the Ravens Edited December 11, 2017 by ShadyBillsFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 3 hours ago, JR in Pittsburgh said: I love the 9-7 playoff calculation time of year. It comes every year around this time!! Not every year my friend. Many years we have been out of it before December even started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big C Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Lots on 9-7 scenarios get us in. Gotta take care of our own business and hope the pieces fall the right way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 23 minutes ago, H2o said: Not every year my friend. Many years we have been out of it before December even started. haha--- very true. All I am wishing for this year is to be able to do the math on week 17. Wouldn't that be great having a chance on the last day of the season?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
What a Tuel Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 (edited) Chargers winning AFC West may actually keep us out of the playoffs. Let's say Bills going 9-7 are a constant. (I know, I know, we never win the last few games we need to, but bear with me) There are 4 teams we can realistically catch for a wildcard. Titans 8-5 Ravens 7-6 Chiefs 7-6 Chargers 7-6 Odds are that 3 of those 4 teams make it to 9-7. Just given how schedules look. Let's ignore the Ravens for now because they have a cake schedule. If the Titans lose 2, we get in at 9-7 so long as Chiefs beat the Chargers. This is because we are favored in the 3 way tie breaker scenario (H2H against Chargers does not come into play.) However if the Titans lose 2, and the Chargers beat the Chiefs, then we lose the wildcard berth This is because KC is favored in the 3 way tie breaker scenario (H2H against Chiefs does not come into play.) So Chiefs beating the Chargers would mean it doesn't matter if the Chargers win their remaining two so long as the Titans or Ravens are tied with us as well. The Chargers beating the Chiefs would mean that we would need the Titans or Ravens to both be at less than 9-7 (or Chiefs to lose 2 of next 3) in order to not lose the 3 way tie to the Chiefs. Edited December 11, 2017 by What a Tuel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FearLess Price Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 hour ago, What a Tuel said: Chargers winning AFC West may actually keep us out of the playoffs. Let's say Bills going 9-7 are a constant. (I know, I know, we never win the last few games we need to, but bear with me) There are 4 teams we can realistically catch for a wildcard. Titans 8-5 Ravens 7-6 Chiefs 7-6 Chargers 7-6 Odds are that 3 of those 4 teams make it to 9-7. Just given how schedules look. Let's ignore the Ravens for now because they have a cake schedule. If the Titans lose 2, we get in at 9-7 so long as Chiefs beat the Chargers. This is because we are favored in the 3 way tie breaker scenario (H2H against Chargers does not come into play.) However if the Titans lose 2, and the Chargers beat the Chiefs, then we lose the wildcard berth This is because KC is favored in the 3 way tie breaker scenario (H2H against Chiefs does not come into play.) So Chiefs beating the Chargers would mean it doesn't matter if the Chargers win their remaining two so long as the Titans or Ravens are tied with us as well. The Chargers beating the Chiefs would mean that we would need the Titans or Ravens to both be at less than 9-7 (or Chiefs to lose 2 of next 3) in order to not lose the 3 way tie to the Chiefs. Holy fck tht is confusing. Youre right about 3 way tiebreakers being different tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 14 hours ago, Reddy Freddy said: Thanks for explaining this. I noticed on the NYT playoff simulator that our odds actually IMPROVE if the Ravens beat the Browns next week. I'm still not sure why it would actually help us if the Ravens beat the Browns, but this explains why a Browns win doesn't do much for us. It may lower their SOV % Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts