Trading down in the draft?

[The Now Moment]

We've all discussed the idea of trading up in the draft for a QB since we acquired all of the high draft picks we have in the upcoming draft.  What if instead of trading up, they decide to trade down.  If Buffalo's first first round pick is around 10, I could see them trading back in the draft again if they don't find a trade partner in the draft.  

 

If they traded to a team like Jacksonville, the Saints, Minnesota or Pittsburgh who all could be looking for replacement QBs like Kansas City did last year.  If Buffalo doesn't get the chance to draft one of the top QBs, I think they could be looking for a trade down like this.  They could acquire more picks and fill out the roster with talent more.  This would be my second favorite option if they don't get the QB they want.  See if you can trade down and fill in some other holes. 

 

If they traded down with say the Saints, who could be looking for Drew Brees eventual replacement.  If they got another haul similar to what we got in the KC deal, I'd say go for it.  Keep stacking up a lot of high draft picks.  They got Tre White after trading down...that's a pretty solid talent to grab after trading down so far.  Why not try to do the same thing but maybe they draft an offensive lineman or someone for the front 7 on defense.

 

This isn't my favorite option.  I want to try to go get the QB  but sometimes the trade partners just aren't there or don't want to trade down so far.  If the trade up doesn't happen Buffalo could trade down and keep stacking 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks that will help this rebuild go faster.  If they went this direction, we would see one of the "traveler" QBs here for a year.  Like Keenum or Bradford...Not my ideal but I don't think it'd be a bad option.  We'd have plenty of picks to attempt to patch several holes.  This is an option that may happen come draft day.  

[KDIGGZ]

They are either going to trade up, trade down, or select a player. We won't know until we know! Nothing would surprise me at this point

[SoCal Deek]

Or...just maybe...they could spend less time on the phones trying to convince other teams to trade up and down, and instead spend more time on actually scouting the true potential of the players that they'll eventually select!  No, wait a minute.  These are the Buffalo Bills and we all that they're WAY smarter than the other 31 Teams.

[Mat68]

This is not the year.  You trade down in the draft if you have a qb and need to build around them and you trade up to get one.  Buffalo does not have one.  If they get cousins or garapalo than sure trade down but lookimg at Buffalo today they need to uses there aquired assets in this draft to bring a Qb that can win games if they defense gives up more than 20 points.

[Lfod]

I'd like a trade down to secure drafting a QB high next year if they can't get the guy you want this year. It won't get the GM any love from the fan base but it's his show. Live and die by the sword.

 

I think it's a matter of who you can get and the price you pay. I would hate to think the GM drafts a quarterback out of desperation. If they trade up and draft a guy and he sucks I can hate on it because I never said it has to happen no matter what and pay whatever price it takes. I'd advocate for calculation over desperation. 

Edited December 6, 2017 by Lfod

[RyanC883]

18 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said:

We've all discussed the idea of trading up in the draft for a QB since we acquired all of the high draft picks we have in the upcoming draft.  What if instead of trading up, they decide to trade down.  If Buffalo's first first round pick is around 10, I could see them trading back in the draft again if they don't find a trade partner in the draft.  

 

If they traded to a team like Jacksonville, the Saints, Minnesota or Pittsburgh who all could be looking for replacement QBs like Kansas City did last year.  If Buffalo doesn't get the chance to draft one of the top QBs, I think they could be looking for a trade down like this.  They could acquire more picks and fill out the roster with talent more.  This would be my second favorite option if they don't get the QB they want.  See if you can trade down and fill in some other holes. 

 

If they traded down with say the Saints, who could be looking for Drew Brees eventual replacement.  If they got another haul similar to what we got in the KC deal, I'd say go for it.  Keep stacking up a lot of high draft picks.  They got Tre White after trading down...that's a pretty solid talent to grab after trading down so far.  Why not try to do the same thing but maybe they draft an offensive lineman or someone for the front 7 on defense.

 

This isn't my favorite option.  I want to try to go get the QB  but sometimes the trade partners just aren't there or don't want to trade down so far.  If the trade up doesn't happen Buffalo could trade down and keep stacking 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks that will help this rebuild go faster.  If they went this direction, we would see one of the "traveler" QBs here for a year.  Like Keenum or Bradford...Not my ideal but I don't think it'd be a bad option.  We'd have plenty of picks to attempt to patch several holes.  This is an option that may happen come draft day.  

 

I like this idea a lot.  If you can't get the QB you are sold on, then trade down if possible.  And a QB like Keenum or Bradford could win a ton of games if we trade down and fill the missing parts on the DL, secondary, WR, OL and backup RB.  

[The Now Moment]

14 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

This is not the year.  You trade down in the draft if you have a qb and need to build around them and you trade up to get one.  Buffalo does not have one.  If they get cousins or garapalo than sure trade down but lookimg at Buffalo today they need to uses there aquired assets in this draft to bring a Qb that can win games if they defense gives up more than 20 points.

I'm saying if they don't get the chance to grab one of the top players.  I want the QB too but sometimes the trade partners don't want to trade or trade to someone else.  This seems like a nice consolation prize

[Woodman19]

Everything depends on what happens up to that point.  You can envision a scenario for anything for something like the draft.

[The Now Moment]

9 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

I like this idea a lot.  If you can't get the QB you are sold on, then trade down if possible.  And a QB like Keenum or Bradford could win a ton of games if we trade down and fill the missing parts on the DL, secondary, WR, OL and backup RB.  

It is a real possibility.  If they miss out on one of the top guys, this might be the best option.  If they got something similar to what they got from KC, I'd jump for joy.  

Just now, Woodman19 said:

Everything depends on what happens up to that point.  You can envision a scenario for anything for something like the draft.

I'm just suggesting another likable path that has a possibility of happening

[Pbomb]

If we can get our qb with our first pick then i wouldnt be against trading down with our other pick to get another 2nd and 1st rounder next year again

[Sweats]

The FO could trade back as much as they want............it doesn't erase the fact that we need a QB cause TT and Peterman aint going to take us to the promised land.

 

 

[billsfan714]

I could see it.    I havent seen any first round mock draft with Baker Mayfield in it.   There is talent past the first round at quarterback.   With the holes on this team, and especially the lines and lbs, I see McBean using all these picks and definetly looking to acquire more.   At G you have Ritchie on his last year and Vlad, who knows where Millier is on this staff but it isnt good.   Cordy and his anke and high salary.....Beane is going to look at that.    DT you may be seeing the end of KW in a Bills uni and you have what Washington.    Big need there.....Lorax is near the end.   Brown is a UFA.     5 picks in 3 rds......yeah were going to need them all and maybe more.

Edited December 6, 2017 by billsfan714

[The Now Moment]

7 minutes ago, Sweats said:

The FO could trade back as much as they want............it doesn't erase the fact that we need a QB cause TT and Peterman aint going to take us to the promised land.

 

 

As I stated, in this scenario they didn't find the right trade partner to move up.  I suggested they find a guy like Bradford or Keenum to play as the bridge QB for next year.  I'm with ya, I want the QB too but sometimes there's just too many QB needy teams that pick ahead of us.  RIght now, the Browns, Giants and Broncos look like they all might draft a QB and they draft 1, 2 and 4 respectively.  The QB thing might not happen this year.  So I say trade down again if they can find a trade partner and try to fill in the majority of the holes.  

8 minutes ago, billsfan714 said:

I could see it.    I havent seen any first round mock draft with Baker Mayfield in it.   There is talent past the first round at quarterback.   With the holes on this team, and especially the lines and lbs, I see McBean using all these picks and definetly looking to acquire more.   At G you have Ritchie on his last year and Vlad, who knows where Millier is on this staff but it isnt good.   Cordy and his anke and high salary.....Beane is going to look at that.    DT you may be seeing the end of KW in a Bills uni and you have what Washington.    Big need there.....Lorax is near the end.   Brown is a UFA.     5 picks in 3 rds......yeah were going to need them all and maybe more.

They have a nice chunk of change to play with in the offseason as well especially if they ditch Tryod's contract.  They did a nice job of adding Poyer and Hyde who have been pretty darn good in the secondary. I expect we go after a few more free agents this year as they will be letting most of the past regime's players walk in free agency and get their own hand picked players in the building.  This will be a totally different team next year if they can do this offseason well. 

[BobbyC81]

You really think Cleveland will take a QB first?   They've been so adverse to it, I think they'll pass again.  When you are moving towards a winless season, you have more than a QB need.  Chances are they'll do a trade like giving the Pats the 1st pick for a couple firsts and a 2nd.  When the Pats pick is 32, it's pretty much a 2nd rnd pick.  Then we'll have to face Darnold for 15 years after Brady retires. 

 

 I don't see how Hugh Jackson survives so it could depend on a new coach.

[billsfan714]

19 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said:

As I stated, in this scenario they didn't find the right trade partner to move up.  I suggested they find a guy like Bradford or Keenum to play as the bridge QB for next year.  I'm with ya, I want the QB too but sometimes there's just too many QB needy teams that pick ahead of us.  RIght now, the Browns, Giants and Broncos look like they all might draft a QB and they draft 1, 2 and 4 respectively.  The QB thing might not happen this year.  So I say trade down again if they can find a trade partner and try to fill in the majority of the holes.  

They have a nice chunk of change to play with in the offseason as well especially if they ditch Tryod's contract.  They did a nice job of adding Poyer and Hyde who have been pretty darn good in the secondary. I expect we go after a few more free agents this year as they will be letting most of the past regime's players walk in free agency and get their own hand picked players in the building.  This will be a totally different team next year if they can do this offseason well. 

I agree with you.   turnover on this team in the next 2 years will continue.   What I like about McBeane is its the anti-Whaley  and judging by my signature i never thought much of him.    Whaley traded future picks for a team that was not close.....Whaley had us close to the cap with a mediocre team....cmon now be honest.  So this new regime, they are doing things different.   Im all for that.    You have to give him his first draft and full off season.   I do honestly believe these guys are much better at the GM and personel than Donohoe....Marv....Brandon....Buddy and Whaley.    Its really not a high bar.  

[Tatonka68]

If you do not have a QB you have nothing to build around. You need to get a foundation for your team, a FRANCHISE QB, then you fill the holes. This is Buffalo's ONLY shot a Superstar QB, holding 2 1st round picks. Signing another teams hand me down second hand QB is NOT a foundation. There is a reason that QB is available. The Bills did not trade down last year and pick up another 1st round pick in 2018 NOT to draft a QB.

 

Edited December 6, 2017 by Tatonka68

[Bills Fan of St Augustine]

I definitely think we use one of our 1st round picks on the best QB available. I think we have our pick of either the third or fourth QB picked in this draft depending whether we lose out or not. I say use it and pick the best available. Hopefully, Darnold or Allen is still there. If they are gone then maybe pass and take a DL and then QB with the KC pick. After that it has to be OL and LB.

[Da webster guy]

Draft talk during the season is bad luck.   This is what led to wide right, homerun throwback, Robert Woods departure, Dennison getting hired, and Gronk committing a felony after the whistle.   

At this point just keep rooting against KC, who might actually be giving us a higher draft pick than our own this spring.

[dollars 2 donuts]

9 minutes ago, Bills Fan of Maryland said:

I definitely think we use one of our 1st round picks on the best QB available. I think we have our pick of either the third or fourth QB picked in this draft depending whether we lose out or not. I say use it and pick the best available. Hopefully, Darnold or Allen is still there. If they are gone then maybe pass and take a DL and then QB with the KC pick. After that it has to be OL and LB.

 

 

IF we do what you suggest, BFM, some early mock draft (a couple of weeks ago, can't remember which) had us taking that DLineman from Ohio State, I believe at 18.  Again, I stress if we don't move up, I would be fine with a QB (pick 12-15?) /DL first round.

 

Still, my druthers would still be to end up with one of those picks in the top 10.  I know some here (including me) have talked about tank mode in the first round, but I have no problems with KC finishing 6-10!

[NewEraBills]

If Roquan Smith is there at our first pick you don't trade.  You select, that's all!!!

[Bills Fan of St Augustine]

2 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

IF we do what you suggest, BFM, some early mock draft (a couple of weeks ago, can't remember which) had us taking that DLineman from Ohio State, I believe at 18.  Again, I stress if we don't move up, I would be fine with a QB (pick 12-15?) /DL first round.

 

Still, my druthers would still be to end up with one of those picks in the top 10.  I know some here (including me) have talked about tank mode in the first round, but I have no problems with KC finishing 6-10!

I just think we need too much at other positions to spend picks to move up. People are arguing whether Darnold, Rosen, Jackson, Allen or other are the top QBs. I'd be fine with any of them but prefer Darnold and Allen. There is still good talent to be had when we pick again. No need to move up. I think Giants take Rosen. We'll see.

[dollars 2 donuts]

32 minutes ago, Bills Fan of Maryland said:

I just think we need too much at other positions to spend picks to move up. People are arguing whether Darnold, Rosen, Jackson, Allen or other are the top QBs. I'd be fine with any of them but prefer Darnold and Allen. There is still good talent to be had when we pick again. No need to move up. I think Giants take Rosen. We'll see.

 

 

I'll tell you though, BFM, I have this feeling that we may even be looking at the 5th or 6th QB if we don't move.  I used to like him a lot, but right now I am really not interested in taking Jackson.

 

...as I've stated before I would have loved Watson last year, even reaching at 10...which obviously now would have been fortuitous.

Edited December 6, 2017 by dollars 2 donuts

[NewEraBills]

24 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

I'll tell you though, BFM, I have this feeling that we may even be looking at the 5th or 6th QB if we don't move.  I used to like him a lot, but right now I am really interested in taking Jackson.

 

...as I've stated before I would have loved Watson last year, even reaching at 10...which obviously now would have been fortuitous.

 

If Dennison is going to be stuck in his ways I don't want Jackson.  If he's going to be flexible like the Texans coach then I'd be fine with Jackson.

[dollars 2 donuts]

2 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

 

If Dennison is going to be stuck in his ways I don't want Jackson.  If he's going to be flexible like the Texans coach then I'd be fine with Jackson.

 

 

I'm sorry, I mis-typed and I will correct.  I meant to say I am really not interested in Jackson.

[TFBillsfan]

Go get your QB this year. I don't want another short term journeyman. We could still have two first round picks this year and trade next years first to move up.  SF, Chicago, Texans, Colts, and Bucs are potential trade partners depending how everything plays out. Right now we are starring down the barrel at 7-9.

Edited December 6, 2017 by TFBillsfan

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

9 hours ago, Buffalo30 said:

As I stated, in this scenario they didn't find the right trade partner to move up.  I suggested they find a guy like Bradford or Keenum to play as the bridge QB for next year.  I'm with ya, I want the QB too but sometimes there's just too many QB needy teams that pick ahead of us.  RIght now, the Browns, Giants and Broncos look like they all might draft a QB and they draft 1, 2 and 4 respectively.  The QB thing might not happen this year.  So I say trade down again if they can find a trade partner and try to fill in the majority of the holes.  

They have a nice chunk of change to play with in the offseason as well especially if they ditch Tryod's contract.  They did a nice job of adding Poyer and Hyde who have been pretty darn good in the secondary. I expect we go after a few more free agents this year as they will be letting most of the past regime's players walk in free agency and get their own hand picked players in the building.  This will be a totally different team next year if they can do this offseason well. 

 

Your idea is career suicide for McBeane.

 

[dollars 2 donuts]

I've responded previously in this thread, but not necessarily to the OT.

 

That said, in my opinion and respectfully, enough is enough.  The start must be with a new QB and you must do whatever it possibly takes to get the best QB that you think is the long term future of this team.  Doesn't mean that QB will be the long term future, but that is what you must have to start with after most 18 years of futility at the position.

 

They had hopes for EJ, but I believe those were simply hopes, even if you ask them about it.  They just needed somebody at that point.

 

Our last winning season Kyle Orton's stats projected over 16 games (and I am not saying he was great by any stretch) would have been 4,000 yards passing, 24 TDs and 14 picks.  Man, we need at least that production regardless of any back and forth we do on these boards.  

 

I always liked Tyrod.  However, I need 3,500 yards and 24 or so TDs from him and if the ONLY WAY I get that from him is having the best options at receiver/TE and one of the best OLines in football, then I just don't think he's that guy.

 

We need a change and it should probably come from the best possible option in the draft.

Edited December 6, 2017 by dollars 2 donuts

[BillsfanAZ]

I think the only way the Bills dont draft a QB in the first round is if they can sign Garoppolo in the offseason. He is young enough to sign long term. I think they also need to sign an experienced #1/2 WR in free agency. Then use the draft to add talent and depth. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

3 minutes ago, BillsfanAZ said:

I think the only way the Bills dont draft a QB in the first round is if they can sign Garoppolo in the offseason. He is young enough to sign long term. I think they also need to sign an experienced #1/2 WR in free agency. Then use the draft to add talent and depth. 

 

 

If they decide not to keep Tyrod as insurance I believe that frees up another 10-12 million in caps space.

[BillsfanAZ]

9 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

If they decide not to keep Tyrod as insurance I believe that frees up another 10-12 million in caps space.

It is up to the Bills since he is under contract next season but that is a lot of money to be tied up in QB that will most likely not be starting. I think they cut Taylor to free up cap space and give them more options. 

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, billsfan714 said:

I could see it.    I havent seen any first round mock draft with Baker Mayfield in it.   There is talent past the first round at quarterback.   With the holes on this team, and especially the lines and lbs, I see McBean using all these picks and definetly looking to acquire more.   At G you have Ritchie on his last year and Vlad, who knows where Millier is on this staff but it isnt good.   Cordy and his anke and high salary.....Beane is going to look at that.    DT you may be seeing the end of KW in a Bills uni and you have what Washington.    Big need there.....Lorax is near the end.   Brown is a UFA.     5 picks in 3 rds......yeah were going to need them all and maybe more.

 

 

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2747404-2018-nfl-mock-draft-post-week-13-breakdown

http://draftwire.usatoday.com/2017/11/29/2018-nfl-mock-draft-updated-4-round-projections-after-week-12/3/

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2018-nfl-mock-draft-cowboys-falcons-add-wr-speed-with-ridley-burnett/

 

Three mocks with Mayfield in the first round, all among the first few mocks on a google search for "2018 mock draft". 

 

Mayfield's in plenty of first round mocks.

 

And I know what's coming next from some people on here:  "That guy's an idiot and that guy's never right and the third guy has him in the mid-twenties and he could easily fall." All justifications,  no good arguments. He might easily make the first. Might not but it could easily happen.

 

 

McShay thinks Mayfield will go in the first. Kiper is not sure, says he's on the fringe.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/story/_/id/21665021/2018-nfl-draft-primer-mel-kiper-todd-mcshay-answer-25-questions-prospects-rankings-mock-draft

Edited December 6, 2017 by Thurman#1

[Happy]

10 minutes ago, BillsfanAZ said:

It is up to the Bills since he is under contract next season but that is a lot of money to be tied up in QB that will most likely not be starting. I think they cut Taylor to free up cap space and give them more options. 

I'd like to keep Tyrod as insurance, also, but your post makes sense and why he will probably not be here next season.  I'd look for someone like Bradford or Bridgewater to come in and next year.

[Gordio]

1 hour ago, joesixpack said:

 

Your idea is career suicide for McBeane.

 

 

 

Yep, we have tried the trade down, ignore the QB position, build the roster up approach.  Do whatever it takes to get the QB you want.  If that means giving up 3 number one picks(the two this year & another one next year) so be it.  I am not even sure if that will be enough but until you have a QB nothing else matters. 

[ddaryl]

Well we're movin on up, in the draft.
To find us a QB who's a tough guy.
Movin on up in this draft.
We finally gonna get that piece of the pie

 

TT wont be here so quit bitchin;
Peterman may turn out ot be a thrilll.
Took a whole lotta years just to get up that hill.

Now we're finally gonna be in the big leagues
Getits the Patsies turn to be beat.
As long as we live, it's Bills for me baby
There ain't nothin wrong with that.

I'm a little bored .. weak attempt but not to shaby improvements are encourgaed

Edited December 6, 2017 by ddaryl

[Thurman#1]

29 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

If they decide not to keep Tyrod as insurance I believe that frees up another 10-12 million in caps space.

 

 

$15 million. 

 

Last year they paid him $14.5 mill (base salary plus signing bonus) and $15.5 mill was guaranteed. So $1 mill is guaranteed this year, from his roster bonus. In 2018, his base is $10 mill and roster bonus is $6 mill. So he would cost $16 mill, of which $1 mill is guaranteed.

 

This is from Spotrac and I believe I've interpreted it all correctly, but if I haven't, please somebody correct me.

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/tyrod-taylor-7899/

 

It looked all along like it would be very easy to cut him this offseason - if they want to - once he signed the new deal last offseason. That's a lot of cash to save.

Edited December 6, 2017 by Thurman#1

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, Thurman#1 said:

$15 million. 

 

Last year they paid him $14.5 mill (base salary plus signing bonus) and $15.5 mill was guaranteed. So $1 mill is guaranteed this year, from his roster bonus. Base is $10 mill and roster bonus is $6 mill. So he would cost $16 mill, of which $1 mill is guaranteed.

 

This is from Spotrac and I believe I've intepreted it all correctly, but if I haven't, please somebody correct me.

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/tyrod-taylor-7899/

 

It looked all along like it would be very easy to cut him this offseason - if they want to - once he signed the new deal last offseason. That's a lot of cash to save.

If you use spotrac's roster manager for 2018 and cut Tyrod it says the savings is $9.45M

[Thurman#1]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

If you use spotrac's roster manager for 2018 and cut Tyrod it says the savings is $9.45M

 

 

From what I can tell just looking quickly, that's real time. In other words if you cut Tyrod TODAY that's what you'd save on the 2018 cap.

 

Nobody wants to cut him today. If you do, a bunch of his 2017 guaranteed money hits the cap next year.

Edited December 6, 2017 by Thurman#1

[dollars 2 donuts]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

If you use spotrac's roster manager for 2018 and cut Tyrod it says the savings is $9.45M

 

Can get you 3/4 of the way to a quality receiver or resigning Benjamin, depending upon what you see in possible last 4 games for him.

 

Not to hijack this thread, just a tangent; right now i'm thinking that with our first five picks, considering that we should expect them to contribute, QB, DL, WR, OL, LB in no particular order, other than QB being first.

[BillsVet]

New GMs inheriting a bad to mediocre team prioritize taking a QB because it's typically the main reason a team isn't successful. But not in Buffalo, where GMs found every reason not to take one for years.

 

McBeane know this team is nowhere right now at QB.  TT, albeit without knowing his top 2 wideouts, has proven he's not the guy. And if the HC and GM want to be around for any length of time, they'll get their guy this year.

 

The fastest way to being a solid team is acquiring the QB and refusing to take one or taking one out of sheer need isn't the way to do it.

 

 

 

 

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

13 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

From what I can tell just looking quickly, that's real time. In other words if you cut Tyrod TODAY that's what you'd save on the 2018 cap.

Nobody wants to cut him today. If you do, a bunch of his 2017 guaranteed money hits the cap next year.

No, cutting him now is what happens when you manage the 2017 roster instead of the 2018 roster, which is a -$1M savings.