Jump to content

Playoffs? Playoffs?? The Playoff Chances Thread


Recommended Posts

Keeping things conservative, I picked wins against the Saints, Chargers, Dolphins (x2), and Colts. Which gave us a 48% chance of making the playoffs. If we win those AND add just one victory against the Raiders, Jets, Chiefs or Patriots (x2), it says we have a >95% of making the playoffs.

 

Nice :beer:

Edited by Dorkington
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We want Oakland to win? Explain this strategy

 

I'm pretty sure we want NE to win so they can lock up the AFC East and keep our strength of schedule as a good factor when it comes time for Wild Card voting.

I posted what I thought it was obvious, then I edited it for clarity when I added the full list

 

I guess I was wrong in my assumption.

:beer:

Edited by ShadyBillsFan
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yup. Not too soon. Early, but not to soon. (The purpose here is to collect the various statistically-based playoff likelihood projection systems, not a more generic power rating.) fivethirtyeight.com updates immediately after each slate of games. And right now they have the Bills at ...

 

... projected at 9.6 wins. And chances of making the playoffs at ...

 

... 63 %

 

Sunday night's game (Steelers) will have at most a minimal effect.

 

Here's the most interesting part: their ELO rating (their version of a power rating, but given the site very objective/statistically based) has the Bills 10th overall, 4th in the AFC (NE, KC, PIT). There's a pretty big gap right now between the Bills and the 5th team in the AFC, the Broncos. I know we started 5-2 in 2011 as well, but given the poor performance of some of our clear wildcard competitors, I can't recall us being this well positioned after 7 games in a long, long time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And interesting to see the odds of each game going forward on 538. The Bills right now are underdogs in just 3 of the remaining 9 games (Pats X 2, KC on the road). We're 1 point faves vs. New Orleans at the Ralph; I wouldn't like our chances in New Orleans, but as always the Saints are an entirely different/worse team on the road. We're also slim faves on the road (1.5 points) vs. the Chargers, and that's one that really worries me.

 

Of course it won't play out game-by-game as projected, but the bottom line is 538 is right - we'll be clear favorites in about 3 of the remaining 9: Jets on Thursday, (but Thursdays are always more of a crapshoot than Sundays, particularly on the road - this one will be huge if we want to gain a little separation), Colts at home, Dolphins at home. As I mentioned, 2 games - Chargers on the road and Saints at home - are almost toss-ups, and right now 538 has Dolphins on the road as a third toss-up (I feel pretty good about that one right now). And then we're clear dogs in those 3.

 

Win the 3 we're supposed to, and win 2 of the 3 that project as near toss-ups, and even if you lose the 3 clear underdog games if my arithmetic is good, that's 10 wins ...

Edited by The Frankish Reich
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We need a Thursday night win.

I am, for the first time in a decade at least, looking forward to playing NE. I feel like we have a legitimate chance to split with them

One month later, I realize I must have been in a crack induced haze

Edited by Buffalo Boy
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We need a Thursday night win.

I am, for the first time in a decade at least, looking forward to playing NE. I feel like we have a legitimate chance to split with them

Ditto. I've been saying this for a few weeks now.

 

I think we can beat them once this year and I haven't thought that in a long time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And as Much as I dont like Taylor and think they need to upgrade that position in the draft if they make the playoffs the Bills should pick up the option and allow thier 1st round rookie time to grow

Right there with you. I am grudgingly starting to come around. I dont love him but do appreciate that hes got something. He clearly is starting to grasp this O and taking shots into the middle that he wasnt before.

Still, he missed some wide open guys( didnt see or throw to) and threw a couple he shouldnt have and got lucky.

Edited by Buffalo Boy
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If Bills beat the Jets and Saints, then beat the Colts and sweep the Dolphins, 5 winnable games, our playoff odds are <99%.


 

Vinnie Iyer doesn't "Billieve":

@sn_nfl

 

 

 

The Bills really have just one "gimme" game left, at home against the Colts in Week 14.

 

Really, Vinnie?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...